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India Inc revenue likely grew 18-20% on-year in 2nd quarter

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Higher commodity prices and continued revival in demand for consumer discretionary products likely lifted corporate revenue 18-20 per cent on-year to Rs 8.2 lakh crore in the second quarter of this fiscal, indicates a CRISIL Research study of 300 companies (excluding from the financial services and oil sectors) that account for 55-60 per cent of the market capitalisation of the National Stock Exchange.

Revenue from consumer discretionary products such as automobiles likely spurted 19-21 per cent on-year, aided by higher realisations and volume.

Construction-linked sectors are estimated to have grown 22-25 per cent on-year, benefiting from the low-base effect of last fiscal.

Overall revenue growth would be primarily supported by price hikes driven by costlier commodities. On-year volume growth would be mostly in single digit across key segments except commercial vehicles. To be sure, growth momentum would have slowed compared with the 47 per cent on-year increase seen in the first quarter.

On a sequential basis, overall revenue is likely to have grown 8-10 per cent.

Revenue from consumer discretionary products is expected to have risen 23-25 per cent sequentially after demand was hit by the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in the first quarter.

Construction-linked sectors are estimated to have grown a moderate 3-5 per cent as seasonal weakness slowed down execution and volume growth.

Revenue in the automobiles sector is estimated to have grown 27-30 per cent sequentially, led by an increase in realisations. That, in turn, is expected to steer growth for ancillary segments such as auto components and tyres, which have likely grown a robust 12-14 per cent and 6-10 per cent on-quarter, respectively.

Overall revenue of the sample set is expected to have risen to Rs 15.8 lakh crore in the first half of this fiscal, up 30- 32 per cent on-year.

Says Hetal Gandhi, Director, CRISIL Research, “Elevated commodity prices and healthy realisations would lead to better revenue performance across sectors in the second quarter. As many as 24 of the 40 sectors represented by these 300 companies have likely grown over 20 per cent on-year. But overall revenue growth would be a notch lower at 15-17 per cent excluding commodity sectors such as steel and aluminium. On a sequential basis, it could be even lower at 8-10 per cent, with export-linked sectors such as IT services and pharmaceuticals proving to be drags, even though growing at a stable 4-6 per cent.”

The moderation in revenue growth is expected to have trickled down to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda), which is estimated to be up an average 5-7 per cent sequentially. From an on-year perspective, that would be 24-27 per cent higher because of the low-base effect.

Consequently, operating profitability, as represented by the Ebitda margin, would have narrowed by 40-80 bps on- quarter as a complete pass-through of the sharp increase in raw material cost would not have been possible.

Nearly half of the 40 sectors are expected to log a sequential drop in Ebitda margin amid rising input prices. While overall margins may have continued to improve on-year to 100-120 bps, excluding companies in the aluminium and steel products segments, it would have contracted 30-70 bps.

“The ability of companies to pass on the surge in commodity prices is limited, which caps the rise in margins. Crude oil prices are up 71 per cent in the second quarter on-year, and steel 47 per cent. Power and fuel expenses have risen because of 2x higher coal prices and over 4x higher spot gas prices. These would add to the woes, leading to margin contraction in the power and cement sectors,” adds Hetal Gandhi.

For the first half of this fiscal, overall Ebitda margin (for 300 companies) is estimated at 22-24 per cent, marking an expansion of 200-250 bps on-year, and driven by a 380 bps expansion in the first quarter.

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New excise duty, health cess on cigarettes, pan masala to begin from Feb 1

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New Delhi, Jan 31: From February 1, the government is bringing a new tax structure for cigarettes, tobacco products and pan masala, aiming to tighten regulation and keep tax levels high on these so-called ‘sin goods’.

An additional excise duty will now be charged on cigarettes and tobacco products, along with a new health and national security cess on pan masala.

These new levies will replace the earlier system under which these products were taxed at 28 per cent GST along with a compensation cess that has been in place since the launch of GST in July 2017.

The government is also introducing a new MRP-based valuation system for several tobacco products such as chewing tobacco, filter khaini, jarda scented tobacco and gutkha.

Under this system, GST will be calculated based on the retail price printed on the packet, instead of factory value.

This move is expected to reduce tax evasion and improve revenue collection. Pan masala manufacturers will now have to take fresh registration under the new health and national security cess law starting February 1.

They will also be required to install CCTV cameras that cover all packing machines and store the video recordings for at least two years.

In addition, companies must inform excise authorities about the number of machines in their factories and their production capacity.

If any machine remains non-functional for 15 days in a row, manufacturers will be allowed to claim a reduction in excise duty for that period.

Even after the new changes, the government has ensured that the overall tax burden on pan masala, including 40 per cent GST, will remain around the current level of 88 per cent.

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Indian stock markets gain this week ahead of Budget 2026

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Mumbai, Jan 31: The Indian equity benchmarks gained around 1 per cent during the week, though the trading sessions were volatile but with a cautiously constructive tone amid mixed global cues and rising geopolitical tensions.

Risk appetite weakened toward the end of the week ahead of the Union Budget 2026-27, with volatility resurfacing amid sustained FII outflows and rupee depreciation leading to losses in the last trading session.

Nifty added 1.09 per cent during the week and dipped 0.39 per cent on the last trading day to 25,320. At close, Sensex was down 296 points or 0.36 percent at 81,537. It added 0.90 per cent during the week.

Sectoral indices traded mixed this week with diversified consumer services stocks and hardware tech stocks logging the worst-performance, dipping 2.5 to 3.7 per cent. FMCG, media and software stocks slide over 1 per cent.

Metal stocks as well as oil and gas were the top weekly gainers up over 2 per cent, however Nifty metal index plummeted over 5 per cent on the last trading session. Profit booking also intensified in IT amid a firmer dollar and global liquidity concerns, and caution over incoming Fed Chair, analysts said.

Select pockets of weakness were observed in autos and beverages amid intensifying competitive pressures.

Broader indices posted stronger gains during the week, with the Nifty Midcap100 up 2.25 per cent, while Nifty Smallcap100 gained 3.2 per cent.

The markets opened the week with a subdued sentiment due to renewed tariff-related concerns and mixed corporate earnings, although optimism surrounding the India–EU trade agreement lent support, particularly to trade-oriented sectors.

Market sentiment improved mid-week following a favourable economic survey that reinforced expectations of robust FY27 growth and a benign inflation outlook.

Analysts said that markets remain wary that a potentially stronger inflation focus could prolong tight financial conditions and weigh on emerging markets.

Looking ahead, markets are expected to remain largely event-driven, with the Union Budget acting as the key domestic trigger, they said.

Cyclical sectors may continue to show relative resilience if supported by policy measures, while IT and export-oriented stocks are likely to remain sensitive to global macro cues, analysts added.

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Centre’s fertiliser supplies to states scale record high of 530 lakh metric tons in April-December

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New Delhi, Jan 30: Fertiliser movement from the Centre to the states on Indian Railways, during the first nine months (April-December) of the financial year 2025-26, reached an all-time high with total supplies crossing 530.16 lakh metric tons to surpass the 500 lakh metric ton mark for the first time during this period, an official statement said on Friday.

This represents a 12.2 per cent increase over the corresponding period of FY 2024–25 and is 8.5 per cent higher than the previous record of FY 2023–24, it said.

The Centre has ensured sufficient availability of all major fertilisers across states, including the supply of 350.45 lakh metric tons of urea, against a requirement of 312.40 lakh metric tons in the first nine months (April-December) of the financial year 2025-26. Similarly, in the case of major P&K (phosphorous and potassium) fertilizers including DAP, MOP & NPKS, the total supply reached 287.69 lakh metric tonnes against the requirement of 252.81 lakh metric tonnes, consistently exceeding the assessed requirement and ensuring uninterrupted availability, the statement said.

Faster and smoother movement of fertiliser rakes enabled timely supplies to states, ensuring that farmers did not face any shortages during the critical stages of cultivation. Department of Fertilisers worked in close cooperation with the Ministry of Railways and stated that such coordinated efforts have helped ensure adequate availability of fertilisers across the country, the statement added.

During this period, average rake loading on Indian Railways increased to 72 rakes per day in July 2025, rose to 78 rakes per day in August 2025 and reached 80 rakes per day in September 2025, according to the official figures.

Urea rake movement rose to 10,841 rakes, registering an 8 per cent increase over last year, while P&K fertilisers recorded 8,806 rakes, marking an 18 per cent growth. Enhanced coordination with the Ministry of Railways, ports, state governments, and fertiliser companies ensured seamless and timely supply to states during peak agricultural seasons, the statement said.

Ensuring the timely availability of fertilisers to farmers has remained one of the government’s highest priorities. In this direction, the improved coordination between the Ministry of Railways and the Department of Fertilisers during Kharif 2025 and the ongoing Rabi season was clearly visible at the ground level. The states also took concerted measures to ensure last-mile availability to farmers, the statement added.

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