Connect with us
Sunday,19-October-2025
Breaking News

Business

If softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead Fed to taper its aggression: Sneha Poddar

Published

on

Sneha Poddar, AVP Research, Broking & Distribution, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said if the softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead to the US Federal Reserve to taper its aggression. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is more likely to follow the US Fed and thus would not taper its tone till its is adopted by the latter.

Here are excerpts from the interview:

Q. Do you think after US CPI inflation print which came below estimates will allow Fed to go slow on rate hike, and RBI will follow the same?

A: The US CPI inflation data for the month of July came in at 8.5 per cent, down from 9.1 per cent in June and slightly below expectation of 8.7 per cent. However the Fed officials have responded to softening inflation data by saying it doesn’t change their stance towards higher interest rates, as the inflation still remains above the unacceptable levels. Since this is just first sign of inflation peaking out, and is too early to rule out subsequent high inflation data, uncertainty will loom over when the US Fed would slow down on its aggressive rate hikes. If the softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead Fed to taper its aggression. The RBI is more likely to follow US Fed and thus would not taper its tone till its is adopted by US Fed.

Q. 5.40 per cent repo rate is already above pre-pandemic level, but still the RBI maintains “withdrawal of accomodation” stance. Do you think the neutral level of the repo rate is at or above 6 per cent?

A: The RBI has cumulatively hiked the policy repo rate by 140bp to 5.4 per cent in FY23 till date. It reiterated its continued focus on “withdrawal of accommodation” to contain inflation while supporting growth. However, it kept its inflation/growth forecasts unchanged at 6.7 per cent/7.2 per cent YoY, respectively, for FY23. This seems very confusing as how can the rate hikes help contain inflation without hurting growth? Further, the MPC did not sound dovish at all. There was neither a change in stance nor a relief in the RBI Governor’s statement disclaiming a possible pause in rate hikes. Thus we believe that the terminal rate in this hike cycle might be at 5.75-6.0 per cent

Q. In the current market conditions, which sectors are likely to perform well from an investor returns point-of-view?

A: We believe BFSI can do well in rising interest rate scenario. On the other hand with good monsoon, upcoming festive season and softening of commodity prices, the demand both urban and rural are expected to revive and pick up and thus we are positive on Consumer, Auto and Retail. With the opening up of economy and the structural shift being witnessed in favour of the industry post Covid, QSR remains in a sweet spot. While uncertainty around quantum of interest rate hikes is likely to impact the performance of real estate stocks in the near term, longer-term thesis on revival of housing cycle remains intact. There is imminent opportunity in the domestic Hospitality industry and the expected upcycle bodes well for the sector. We are selectively looking at IT sector as valuations have become attractive for accumulation from long term perspective.

Q. Where you see levels on benchmark indices going forward considering the FI inflows in the domestic equities?

A: Strong momentum in the market has helped Nifty rally by more than 2500 points from June lows, and thus, has wiped out the entire decline for the calendar year till date and turned positive. Strong macro data, FII turning positive, steady earnings and healthy progress in monsoon have been some of the key factors supporting the market. FIIs (including primary market) turned positive for the month of July after nine months of continuous outflows and has been continuous buyer throughout the month of August so far. With the softening of commodity prices, even inflation seems to be peaking out and festive season is about to begin which should support demand and thus corporate earnings. Thus the overall trend in the market seems to be positive, however bouts of volatility can’t be ruled out as uncertainty over rate hike quantum and China-Taiwan tussle continues. Further, with this recent rally, Nifty now trades at ~20x FY23E, above its 10-year average, thus offering limited upside in the near term. Going forward, it could be a tug of war between domestic and global factors which could determine the market direction.

Business

Nifty, Sensex surge over 2 pc this week amid renewed hopes of US-India trade deal

Published

on

Mumbai, Oct 18: The Indian equity benchmarks ended the week decisively higher amid short covering from foreign institutional investor (FII) participants and resilient domestic cues.

Market optimism was bolstered by clarity in the India–US trade relations, with both sides tentatively agreeing to conclude the first phase of the deal by November.

The sentiment remained upbeat as Bank Nifty achieved a new milestone, driven by robust buying interest in leading banking stocks. Investor confidence was buoyed by easing concerns around asset quality in the financial sector and expectations of improved volume growth in the festive quarter.

Benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex rose 2.10 and 2.04 per cent during the week, with FMCG, pharma, and auto indices being the major contributors to the rally.

Analysts said that consumption-driven sectors also saw a surge along with a broad-based recovery across realty, healthcare, and banking.

IT stocks remained under pressure due to global discretionary spending concerns and mounting asset quality stress in the US banking system.

Profit booking was also seen in media, and metal stocks, which capped the overall upside of the indices.

The broader market, however, took a breather after a strong run-up, with Nifty Midcap 100 slipping 0.57 per cent and Nifty Small-cap 100 marginally down by 0.05 per cent, indicating selective profit taking by investors.

“Nifty on the weekly chart has formed a sizable bull candle with a higher high and higher low, signalling continuation of the up move. The index broke out above a three-month symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern, indicating a positive bias,” analysts from Bajaj Broking Research said.

They expect the index to head towards 25,900 and then towards 26,200 levels in the coming weeks.

In the holiday-led truncated Diwali week, investors are likely to remain cautious in view of the release of key economic data, such as US inflation, employment, and India’s PMI figures.

Investors are also keen on the cues from the ongoing earnings season and policy signals from major global central banks.

Continue Reading

Business

Navi Mumbai: NMMC Urges Advertisers To Obtain Mandatory Permissions Before Displaying Hoardings, Banners And LED Signage

Published

on

Navi Mumbai: The Navi Mumbai Municipal Corporation (NMMC) has appealed to all advertisers, businesses, and citizens to secure mandatory permissions before displaying any form of advertisement within city limits, in accordance with the Maharashtra Municipal Corporations (Regulation and Control of Display of Sky-Signs and Advertisements) Rules, 2022.

As per the Urban Development Department’s notification dated May 9, 2022, the rules are applicable to all municipal corporations in Maharashtra except the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC). Under Sections 244 and 245 of the Maharashtra Municipal Corporations Act, no advertisement can be displayed without prior written permission from the Municipal Commissioner.

The term “advertisement” covers all forms of displays visible from public roads, including hoardings, banners, name boards, neon and glow signs, LED and digital screens, video or laser displays, and other illuminated publicity material.

To ensure compliance, NMMC has appointed M/s Ornate Technologies Pvt. Ltd. to conduct a citywide survey of all advertisement hoardings and signage. The agency will use a mobile application to gather data, contact advertisers through a call centre for guidance, and issue notices to those operating without valid permissions.

NMMC officials have urged citizens and advertisers to extend full cooperation to representatives of Ornate Technologies during the survey. “Our goal is to ensure transparency, safety, and orderly display of advertisements across Navi Mumbai,” said a senior civic official.

“We request all advertisers to regularize their displays by applying for permissions online to avoid penalties and ensure compliance.”

The civic body has directed advertisers to apply through its official website https://app.nmmconline.in, submit the required documents, and pay the prescribed advertisement fees to obtain valid permits before putting up any form of advertisement.

Continue Reading

Business

Markets open lower as investors react to Q2 results; IT stocks drag

Published

on

Mumbai, Oct 17: Indian stock markets opened lower on Friday as investors reacted to the second-quarter (Q2) earnings of major companies, including Infosys, Wipro, and Eternal.

Weak cues from Asian markets and renewed US-China tensions also weighed on investor sentiment.

At the same time, gold prices hit a record high, adding to the cautious mood in the market. However, a sharp drop in crude oil prices — with Brent crude falling to around $60 per barrel — may help limit losses for Indian equities.

At 9:20 AM, the Sensex was trading at 83,365, down 103 points or 0.12 per cent, while the Nifty slipped 33 points or 0.13 per cent to 25,552.

“The Nifty managed to hold its gains and ended near the day’s high, closing above the 25,550 mark with a strong bullish candle. This positive momentum suggests continued strength in the near term,” analysts said.

“On the downside, immediate support is placed at 25,500, followed by 25,400, while on the upside, resistance is seen at 25,700 and 25,800 levels,” market experts added.

Eternal, HCL Tech, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Power Grid, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Trent, Tata Steel, Ultratech Cement, and ICICI Bank were among the major losers, declining up to 3.5 per cent.

On the other hand, gains in Asian Paints, Tata Motors, ITC, Bharti Airtel, Mahindra & Mahindra, and Maruti Suzuki helped trim some of the losses. These stocks rose between 0.3 per cent and 3 per cent.

In the broader market, the Nifty MidCap index slipped 0.28 per cent, while the Nifty SmallCap index edged up 0.10 per cent.

Among sectoral indices, IT was the biggest drag, with the Nifty IT index down 1.13 per cent. The Nifty Pharma and PSU Bank indices also declined by 0.3 per cent each.

“The market is resilient and technically strong. Price action in the leading stocks indicate short covering. Even now there is big shorts in the system and the strength in the market might keep the bears on the back foot, facilitating further short covering,” market experts said.

Continue Reading

Trending