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If softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead Fed to taper its aggression: Sneha Poddar

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Sneha Poddar, AVP Research, Broking & Distribution, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said if the softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead to the US Federal Reserve to taper its aggression. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is more likely to follow the US Fed and thus would not taper its tone till its is adopted by the latter.

Here are excerpts from the interview:

Q. Do you think after US CPI inflation print which came below estimates will allow Fed to go slow on rate hike, and RBI will follow the same?

A: The US CPI inflation data for the month of July came in at 8.5 per cent, down from 9.1 per cent in June and slightly below expectation of 8.7 per cent. However the Fed officials have responded to softening inflation data by saying it doesn’t change their stance towards higher interest rates, as the inflation still remains above the unacceptable levels. Since this is just first sign of inflation peaking out, and is too early to rule out subsequent high inflation data, uncertainty will loom over when the US Fed would slow down on its aggressive rate hikes. If the softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead Fed to taper its aggression. The RBI is more likely to follow US Fed and thus would not taper its tone till its is adopted by US Fed.

Q. 5.40 per cent repo rate is already above pre-pandemic level, but still the RBI maintains “withdrawal of accomodation” stance. Do you think the neutral level of the repo rate is at or above 6 per cent?

A: The RBI has cumulatively hiked the policy repo rate by 140bp to 5.4 per cent in FY23 till date. It reiterated its continued focus on “withdrawal of accommodation” to contain inflation while supporting growth. However, it kept its inflation/growth forecasts unchanged at 6.7 per cent/7.2 per cent YoY, respectively, for FY23. This seems very confusing as how can the rate hikes help contain inflation without hurting growth? Further, the MPC did not sound dovish at all. There was neither a change in stance nor a relief in the RBI Governor’s statement disclaiming a possible pause in rate hikes. Thus we believe that the terminal rate in this hike cycle might be at 5.75-6.0 per cent

Q. In the current market conditions, which sectors are likely to perform well from an investor returns point-of-view?

A: We believe BFSI can do well in rising interest rate scenario. On the other hand with good monsoon, upcoming festive season and softening of commodity prices, the demand both urban and rural are expected to revive and pick up and thus we are positive on Consumer, Auto and Retail. With the opening up of economy and the structural shift being witnessed in favour of the industry post Covid, QSR remains in a sweet spot. While uncertainty around quantum of interest rate hikes is likely to impact the performance of real estate stocks in the near term, longer-term thesis on revival of housing cycle remains intact. There is imminent opportunity in the domestic Hospitality industry and the expected upcycle bodes well for the sector. We are selectively looking at IT sector as valuations have become attractive for accumulation from long term perspective.

Q. Where you see levels on benchmark indices going forward considering the FI inflows in the domestic equities?

A: Strong momentum in the market has helped Nifty rally by more than 2500 points from June lows, and thus, has wiped out the entire decline for the calendar year till date and turned positive. Strong macro data, FII turning positive, steady earnings and healthy progress in monsoon have been some of the key factors supporting the market. FIIs (including primary market) turned positive for the month of July after nine months of continuous outflows and has been continuous buyer throughout the month of August so far. With the softening of commodity prices, even inflation seems to be peaking out and festive season is about to begin which should support demand and thus corporate earnings. Thus the overall trend in the market seems to be positive, however bouts of volatility can’t be ruled out as uncertainty over rate hike quantum and China-Taiwan tussle continues. Further, with this recent rally, Nifty now trades at ~20x FY23E, above its 10-year average, thus offering limited upside in the near term. Going forward, it could be a tug of war between domestic and global factors which could determine the market direction.

Business

Sensex, Nifty open lower amid fresh concerns over US tariffs

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Mumbai, Jan 9: The Indian benchmark indices posted mild losses early on Friday amid rising geopolitical tensions and renewed threats of 500 per cent US tariffs on Indian goods under the provisions of the Russia Sanctioning Act.

As of 9.29 am, Sensex slipped 107 points, or 0.13 per cent to 84,073 and Nifty eased 26 points, or 0.10 per cent to 26,850.

Main broad cap indices posted stronger losses compared to benchmark indices, with the Nifty Midcap 100 down 0.29 per cent, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 lost 0.84 per cent.

ONGC and Bharat Electronics were among top gainers on the Nifty pack. Nifty realty and media were the top losers, down 2.14 per cent and 1.34 per cent, respectively. All sectoral indices were trading in red, except IT and PSU Bank.

Immediate support lies at 25,700–25,750 zone, and resistance placed at 26,150–26,200 zone, market watchers said.

After the sharp correction on Thursday triggered by the possibility of about a 500 per cent tariff on India under the provisions of the Russia Sanctioning Act approved by US President Donald Trump, the market will be focused on the verdict, expected from the US Supreme Court on the legality of Trump tariffs, analysts said.

On Thursday, Nifty extended its losing streak for a fourth consecutive session, falling 263 points to close at 25,876.

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed in the morning session as investors parsed China’s inflation data which accelerated in December to the fastest pace in nearly three years.

In Asian markets, China’s Shanghai index gained 0.3 per cent, and Shenzhen added 0.57 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei advanced 1.14 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dipped 0.07 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi advanced 0.69 per cent.

The US markets were mostly in the green zone overnight even as Nasdaq lost 0.44 per cent. The S&P 500 gained 0.01 per cent, and the Dow moved up 0.55 per cent.

On January 8, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold net equities worth Rs 3,367 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 3,701 crore.

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Delhi HC stays order requiring second review of RBI Ombudsman complaints

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New Delhi, Jan 8: The Delhi High Court on Thursday stayed a single-judge direction that required the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to institute a second level of human review for consumer complaints dismissed by its banking ombudsman.

A division bench of Chief Justice D.K. Upadhyaya and Justice Tejas Karia passed the interim order on an appeal filed by the RBI against a ruling delivered by Justice Prathiba M. Singh, which required such reviews to be conducted by legally trained professionals, including retired judicial officers or lawyers with a minimum of ten years’ experience.

While staying the impugned directions, the CJ Upadhyaya-led Bench observed that, prima facie, it found force in the submissions advanced on behalf of the RBI.

“Accordingly, we provide that the directions contained in paragraph 47(5) and 48 of the impugned judgment by the learned single judge dated November 27, 2025, shall remain stayed,” it ordered.

The bench also stayed the single-judge’s direction requiring the RBI Deputy Governor to submit a compliance affidavit by January 15, 2026. The matter has now been scheduled for further hearing on March 17.

Appearing for the RBI, Solicitor General of India Tushar Mehta submitted that the single judge had travelled beyond the permissible scope of judicial review under Article 226 of the Constitution.

The Centre’s second-highest law officer submitted that the Reserve Bank-Integrated Ombudsman Scheme, 2021, is a statutory scheme framed under Section 35A of the Banking Regulation Act and Section 18 of the Payment and Settlement Systems Act, and can be altered or modified only by authorities empowered under those enactments.

In her November 27, 2025, ruling, Justice Prathiba M. Singh had expressed concern over complaints being rejected through “system-generated responses” and held that the Ombudsman Scheme must be “an effective Scheme and not a mere toothless division of the RBI”.

The judgment was delivered in a writ petition filed by advocate Sarwar Raza, who had approached the Delhi High Court alleging harassment and wrongful rejection of his complaints by the RBI Ombudsman following a disputed credit card transaction of Rs 76,777.

The single-judge Bench had directed the RBI to ensure that customer complaints are not rejected merely through a mechanised process and that complainants should be given an opportunity to correct minor errors.

It had further ordered that whenever complaints are finally rejected, they must undergo a second level of human supervision by legally trained personnel, observing: “If the complaint redressal mechanism adopted by the Ombudsman is made more effective and efficient, litigation in courts and consumer forum/s can be reduced considerably.”

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Sensex, Nifty end lower as India-US trade tension spook investors

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Mumbai, Jan 8: Indian equity markets witnessed their sharpest fall in a month on Thursday as benchmark indices extended losses for the fourth straight session, weighed down by rising concerns over India–US trade tensions.

Investor sentiment turned cautious after reports suggested that the administration of US President Donald Trump could consider imposing steep tariffs of up to 500 per cent on Indian goods.

The possibility of such harsh trade measures triggered widespread selling across sectors, leading to broad-based risk aversion in the market.

By the end of the session, the Sensex closed at 84,180.96, slipping 780.18 points or 0.92 per cent.

The Nifty also ended lower at 25,876.85, down 263.9 points or 1.01 per cent.

“A sustained close below 25,900 increases the probability of further downside toward the 25,800–25,700 zone, while a recovery above 26,000 is essential to stabilise near-term sentiment,” an analyst said.

“Despite the current correction, the broader weekly and monthly trend structure remains positive, although short-term corrective pressure may persist if key supports fail to hold,” as per the expert.

On Sensex 30-packs, TCS, TechM, L&T, Reliance Industries and Tata Steel were among the top losers.

On the other hand, Eternal, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finance, and BEL were the only gainers.

The selling pressure was even more pronounced in the broader market. Mid- and small-cap stocks saw sharp declines, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices falling nearly 2 per cent each.

Sector-wise, losses were widespread, with all indices ending in the red. Metal stocks bore the brunt of the sell-off as the Nifty Metal index dropped over 3 per cent.

Oil and gas stocks also remained under pressure, with the Nifty Oil and Gas index falling around 2.8 per cent.

PSU banking and IT stocks were among the other major laggards, declining about 2 per cent each.

Analysts said that the market mood remained cautious as investors grappled with global trade uncertainties and the potential impact of rising tariffs on India’s export-driven sectors.

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