Business
If softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead Fed to taper its aggression: Sneha Poddar
Sneha Poddar, AVP Research, Broking & Distribution, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said if the softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead to the US Federal Reserve to taper its aggression. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is more likely to follow the US Fed and thus would not taper its tone till its is adopted by the latter.
Here are excerpts from the interview:
Q. Do you think after US CPI inflation print which came below estimates will allow Fed to go slow on rate hike, and RBI will follow the same?
A: The US CPI inflation data for the month of July came in at 8.5 per cent, down from 9.1 per cent in June and slightly below expectation of 8.7 per cent. However the Fed officials have responded to softening inflation data by saying it doesn’t change their stance towards higher interest rates, as the inflation still remains above the unacceptable levels. Since this is just first sign of inflation peaking out, and is too early to rule out subsequent high inflation data, uncertainty will loom over when the US Fed would slow down on its aggressive rate hikes. If the softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead Fed to taper its aggression. The RBI is more likely to follow US Fed and thus would not taper its tone till its is adopted by US Fed.
Q. 5.40 per cent repo rate is already above pre-pandemic level, but still the RBI maintains “withdrawal of accomodation” stance. Do you think the neutral level of the repo rate is at or above 6 per cent?
A: The RBI has cumulatively hiked the policy repo rate by 140bp to 5.4 per cent in FY23 till date. It reiterated its continued focus on “withdrawal of accommodation” to contain inflation while supporting growth. However, it kept its inflation/growth forecasts unchanged at 6.7 per cent/7.2 per cent YoY, respectively, for FY23. This seems very confusing as how can the rate hikes help contain inflation without hurting growth? Further, the MPC did not sound dovish at all. There was neither a change in stance nor a relief in the RBI Governor’s statement disclaiming a possible pause in rate hikes. Thus we believe that the terminal rate in this hike cycle might be at 5.75-6.0 per cent
Q. In the current market conditions, which sectors are likely to perform well from an investor returns point-of-view?
A: We believe BFSI can do well in rising interest rate scenario. On the other hand with good monsoon, upcoming festive season and softening of commodity prices, the demand both urban and rural are expected to revive and pick up and thus we are positive on Consumer, Auto and Retail. With the opening up of economy and the structural shift being witnessed in favour of the industry post Covid, QSR remains in a sweet spot. While uncertainty around quantum of interest rate hikes is likely to impact the performance of real estate stocks in the near term, longer-term thesis on revival of housing cycle remains intact. There is imminent opportunity in the domestic Hospitality industry and the expected upcycle bodes well for the sector. We are selectively looking at IT sector as valuations have become attractive for accumulation from long term perspective.
Q. Where you see levels on benchmark indices going forward considering the FI inflows in the domestic equities?
A: Strong momentum in the market has helped Nifty rally by more than 2500 points from June lows, and thus, has wiped out the entire decline for the calendar year till date and turned positive. Strong macro data, FII turning positive, steady earnings and healthy progress in monsoon have been some of the key factors supporting the market. FIIs (including primary market) turned positive for the month of July after nine months of continuous outflows and has been continuous buyer throughout the month of August so far. With the softening of commodity prices, even inflation seems to be peaking out and festive season is about to begin which should support demand and thus corporate earnings. Thus the overall trend in the market seems to be positive, however bouts of volatility can’t be ruled out as uncertainty over rate hike quantum and China-Taiwan tussle continues. Further, with this recent rally, Nifty now trades at ~20x FY23E, above its 10-year average, thus offering limited upside in the near term. Going forward, it could be a tug of war between domestic and global factors which could determine the market direction.
Business
PM Narendra Modi’s Appeal On Gold Buying Sparks Employment Concerns; More Than 1 Crore People Directly Employed In Jewellery Industry

Mumbai: India’s gem and jewellery industry has warned that any broad reduction in gold jewellery purchases could impact employment linked to the sector, which supports over one crore people directly and several allied industries indirectly.
Responding to PM Narendra Modi’s appeal to avoid buying gold for a year amid rising geopolitical tensions in West Asia, All India Gem and Jewellery Domestic Council (GJC) chairman Rajesh Rokde said the industry supports the government’s national interest concerns but cautioned against measures that could hurt livelihoods.
“Whatever the Prime Minister has said is absolutely correct from the perspective of patriotism and national interest,” Rokde said.
“More than one crore people are directly employed in the industry. Insurance, banking, furniture, packaging and logistics sectors are also dependent on jewellery trade,” he said, warning that restrictions on jewellery buying could raise concerns over unemployment.
At the same time, Rokde supported discouraging bullion and coin purchases made purely for investment purposes. “Stopping unnecessary buying of bullion and coins is absolutely right,” he said.
The industry has instead urged the Centre to strengthen and modernise the Gold Monetisation Scheme (GMS) to bring idle household gold into the formal economy and reduce dependence on imports.
According to Rokde, Indians are estimated to hold around 40,000 to 50,000 tonnes of gold. “If even 10-20% of this gold is monetised, India may not need to import gold for the next 10 years,” he said, adding that the GJC has already submitted an end to end monetisation proposal to the government.
GJC vice-chairman Avinash Gupta said gold remains significant for Indian households, but excessive imports also affect the current acc ount deficit and foreign exchange reserves. He said a properly regulated GMS could help channel dormant household gold into the financial system.
Meanwhile, the digital precious metals industry has launched the Digital Precious Metals Assurance Council of India (DPMACI), a self-regulatory body formed by firms including MMTC-PAMP, SafeGold, Augmont, PhonePe, BharatPe, Mobikwik, Gullak, Lenden Club and CRED to improve transparency and consumer protection in the digital gold and silver market.
Business
Gold surges 1.83 pc this week amid persistent tensions in Strait of Hormuz

New Delhi, May 9: Gold prices rose 1.83 per cent during the week over persistent geopolitical uncertainty and volatile crude prices.
On Friday, MCX gold June futures gained 0.04 per cent while MCX silver May futures surged 1.34 per cent. Currently gold futures stand at Rs 1,52,589, while silver futures at Rs 2,61,999 per kg.
The price of 10 grams of 24-carat gold was at Rs 1,51,078 on Friday up from Rs 1,48,357 seen on Monday market opening, according to data published by the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA).
Precious metals continued to rise for four consecutive sessions as optimism over a potential US‑Iran peace agreement and a softer US dollar outweighed a stronger‑than‑expected US jobs report.
US jobs data showed that employment rose more than forecast in April while the unemployment rate held at 4.3 per cent, underscoring resilience in the labour market and reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer.
Central banks maintaining interest rates higher for longer, could pressure non-yielding assets like gold.
In international markets, Comex gold climbed about $50 to a session high of $4,760 per troy ounce, posting a weekly gain near 1.5 per cent. Market participants said the prospect of easing regional tensions and a weaker dollar supported demand for non‑yielding bullion.
Gold and silver have fallen nearly 10 per cent since the US-Iran conflict began on February 28.
The broader safe-haven structure remains intact, though the pace of the rally has moderated as the dollar steadies and broader risk sentiment shows tentative signs of improvement, market participants said.
Despite commodities flow disruption in the Strait of Hormuz dominating the macro narrative, markets are also entering a phase of technical consolidation following the sharp swings witnessed in recent weeks, analysts said.
Precious metals are witnessing mixed price action, with gold and silver attempting to stabilise after recent corrective pressure.
West Asian tensions were rekindled on Thursday after US and Iranian forces exchanged attacks near the strait, though US officials said the ceasefire remained in place.
Immediate resistance for MCX Gold is placed at Rs 1,54,000–Rs 1,55,500, and immediate support is seen near Rs 1,50,000–Rs 1,48,000, analysts said.
For MCX Silver, the Rs 2,65,000 zone acts as immediate resistance, and the Rs 2,60,000–Rs 2,58,000 zone now serves as immediate support, they added.
Business
Apple to invest Rs 100 crore in India’s renewable energy infrastructure

New Delhi, May 7: US tech giant Apple has announced an investment of Rs 100 crore to support the development of renewable energy infrastructure in India as part of its broader sustainability and carbon neutrality goals.
The company said the investment will be made in collaboration with CleanMax, one of India’s leading renewable energy developers, to help build more than 150 megawatts of new renewable energy capacity across the country.
According to the iPhone maker, the planned capacity would be enough to power nearly 1.5 lakh Indian households annually and may be expanded further in the coming years.
The initiative is aimed at strengthening renewable energy adoption across Apple’s supply chain operations in India and supports the company’s target of becoming carbon neutral across its entire footprint by 2030.
“At Apple, our commitment to the environment is also a driving force for innovation across the company and around the world,” said Sarah Chandler, Apple’s Vice President of Environment and Supply Chain Innovation.
“We are proud to expand our efforts to invest in India’s clean energy economy and protect the country’s precious natural resources,” she added.
Moreover, the US-headquartered firm had earlier partnered with CleanMax on rooftop solar projects to power its offices and retail stores in India with 100 per cent renewable energy.
Apart from renewable energy investments, it also announced new partnerships in India focused on reducing plastic pollution and promoting green entrepreneurship.
The company said it is working with WWF-India to support recycling and waste management initiatives to improve material recovery and reducing plastic leakage into ecosystems.
The iPhone maker is also partnering with Acumen to provide grants and mentorship support to early-stage green enterprises working in areas such as waste management, regenerative agriculture, and circular economy solutions.
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