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If softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead Fed to taper its aggression: Sneha Poddar

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Sneha Poddar, AVP Research, Broking & Distribution, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said if the softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead to the US Federal Reserve to taper its aggression. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is more likely to follow the US Fed and thus would not taper its tone till its is adopted by the latter.

Here are excerpts from the interview:

Q. Do you think after US CPI inflation print which came below estimates will allow Fed to go slow on rate hike, and RBI will follow the same?

A: The US CPI inflation data for the month of July came in at 8.5 per cent, down from 9.1 per cent in June and slightly below expectation of 8.7 per cent. However the Fed officials have responded to softening inflation data by saying it doesn’t change their stance towards higher interest rates, as the inflation still remains above the unacceptable levels. Since this is just first sign of inflation peaking out, and is too early to rule out subsequent high inflation data, uncertainty will loom over when the US Fed would slow down on its aggressive rate hikes. If the softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead Fed to taper its aggression. The RBI is more likely to follow US Fed and thus would not taper its tone till its is adopted by US Fed.

Q. 5.40 per cent repo rate is already above pre-pandemic level, but still the RBI maintains “withdrawal of accomodation” stance. Do you think the neutral level of the repo rate is at or above 6 per cent?

A: The RBI has cumulatively hiked the policy repo rate by 140bp to 5.4 per cent in FY23 till date. It reiterated its continued focus on “withdrawal of accommodation” to contain inflation while supporting growth. However, it kept its inflation/growth forecasts unchanged at 6.7 per cent/7.2 per cent YoY, respectively, for FY23. This seems very confusing as how can the rate hikes help contain inflation without hurting growth? Further, the MPC did not sound dovish at all. There was neither a change in stance nor a relief in the RBI Governor’s statement disclaiming a possible pause in rate hikes. Thus we believe that the terminal rate in this hike cycle might be at 5.75-6.0 per cent

Q. In the current market conditions, which sectors are likely to perform well from an investor returns point-of-view?

A: We believe BFSI can do well in rising interest rate scenario. On the other hand with good monsoon, upcoming festive season and softening of commodity prices, the demand both urban and rural are expected to revive and pick up and thus we are positive on Consumer, Auto and Retail. With the opening up of economy and the structural shift being witnessed in favour of the industry post Covid, QSR remains in a sweet spot. While uncertainty around quantum of interest rate hikes is likely to impact the performance of real estate stocks in the near term, longer-term thesis on revival of housing cycle remains intact. There is imminent opportunity in the domestic Hospitality industry and the expected upcycle bodes well for the sector. We are selectively looking at IT sector as valuations have become attractive for accumulation from long term perspective.

Q. Where you see levels on benchmark indices going forward considering the FI inflows in the domestic equities?

A: Strong momentum in the market has helped Nifty rally by more than 2500 points from June lows, and thus, has wiped out the entire decline for the calendar year till date and turned positive. Strong macro data, FII turning positive, steady earnings and healthy progress in monsoon have been some of the key factors supporting the market. FIIs (including primary market) turned positive for the month of July after nine months of continuous outflows and has been continuous buyer throughout the month of August so far. With the softening of commodity prices, even inflation seems to be peaking out and festive season is about to begin which should support demand and thus corporate earnings. Thus the overall trend in the market seems to be positive, however bouts of volatility can’t be ruled out as uncertainty over rate hike quantum and China-Taiwan tussle continues. Further, with this recent rally, Nifty now trades at ~20x FY23E, above its 10-year average, thus offering limited upside in the near term. Going forward, it could be a tug of war between domestic and global factors which could determine the market direction.

Business

New labour codes bring on board gig workers with 90-day employment

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New Delhi, Jan 2: The Ministry of Labour and Employment has published the draft rules for the four labour codes, which also bring gig workers on board for various benefits such as minimum wage, health, occupational safety, and social security coverage.

The government has invited feedback from stakeholders on these draft rules and aims to finally roll out the entire package of four labour codes across the country from April 1.

Under the draft rules, in order to be eligible for the benefits, a gig or platform worker must be associated with an aggregator for at least 90 days in a financial year to qualify for social security benefits created by the Centre. If a worker is engaged with more than one aggregator, the minimum requirement is fixed at 120 days.

The notification, dated December 30, 2025, was issued a day before the gig and platform workers went on a flash strike for higher wages and better working conditions.

The rules clarify that a worker is considered “engaged” on any calendar day if they earn income for work done for an aggregator, regardless of how much they earn.

If a worker is associated with multiple aggregators, the number of engagement days will be added together across all aggregators. The draft also states that if a worker is engaged with three aggregators on the same calendar day, it will be counted as three separate days of engagement.

Regarding the minimum wage, the draft rules state that when the rate of wages for a day is fixed, then such amount shall be divided by eight for fixing the rate of wages for an hour and multiplied by twenty-six for fixing the rate of wages for a month. In case of a five-day working week, the hourly rate of minimum wages so calculated shall be used to derive the minimum wages for the day.

While fixing the minimum rates of wages, the Central government shall take into account the geographical area, experience in the area of employment, and level of skill required for working under the categories of unskilled, semiskilled, skilled, and highly skilled, the rules further state.

The four codes — the Code on Wages, 2019; the Industrial Relations Code, 2020; the Code on Social Security, 2020; and the Occupational Safety, Health and Working Conditions Code, 2020 — were notified on the same day.

The Labour Codes make it mandatory for employers to issue appointment letters to all workers, which provides written proof to ensure transparency, job security, and fixed employment. Earlier, no mandatory appointment letters were required.

Under the Code on Social Security, 2020, all workers, including gig and platform workers, will get social security coverage. All workers will get PF, ESIC, insurance, and other social security benefits. Earlier, there was only limited security coverage.

Under the Code on Wages, 2019, all workers will receive a statutory minimum wage payment, and timely payment will ensure financial security. Earlier, minimum wages applied only to scheduled industries or employments and large sections of workers remained uncovered.

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Business

FAIFA urges government to roll back steep tax hike on tobacco products

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New Delhi, Jan 2: The Federation of All India Farmer Associations (FAIFA) on Friday urged the government to roll back the notified excise rates on tobacco products and revise them to revenue-neutral rates, to disincentivise smuggling, and support domestic agriculture.

A stable taxation framework, FAIFA noted in a statement, is necessary to sustain farmer incomes, protect employment across the value chain, and align economic policy with long-term public health goals.

The Ministry of Finance notification ‘Chewing Tobacco, Jarda Scented Tobacco and Gutkha Packing Machines (Capacity Determination and Collection of Duty) Rules, 2026’ has imposed an excise duty of Rs 2,050-Rs 8,500 per 1,000 sticks, depending on cigarette length, effective February 1.

FAIFA said such a steep hike in taxes would force domestic manufacturers to raise prices of finished goods, which will lead to a drop in sales, hurting farmers supplies in return. This could cause a glut in the tobacco crop market in the near term, it added.

“While announcing GST 2.0 on September 4, 2025, Government had assured that in the case of tobacco products, GST would be charged at 40 per cent of the retail sales price, while the overall incidence of tax would be kept unchanged,” said Murali Babu, President, FAIFA.

He further added that the farming community across India has been holding on to this assurance of revenue neutrality and had welcomed the government’s decision to rationalise GST by restructuring rates and doing away with the 12 per cent slab, which helped reduce prices.

Appealing to the government, FAIFA leaders stressed that India’s legal cigarette prices are already among the least affordable globally when measured against per capita income, as reflected in World Health Organization’s (WHO) affordability index.

Current steep increase will render legal products unaffordable to a huge section of consumers, accelerating consumer migration to illegal channels, it argued. FAIFA appealed to the government to ensure that taxation policies do not punish those who have always remained within the law.

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Business

Sensex, Nifty post mild gains as auto, metal stocks lead rally

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Mumbai, Jan 2: The Indian benchmark indices traded in the green zone early on Friday, supported by strong macroeconomic indicators and stable domestic fundamentals.

As of 9.30 am, Sensex advanced 185 points, or 0.22 per cent to 85,374 and Nifty gained 61 points, or 0.24 per cent to 26,208.

Main broad-cap indices performed in line with benchmark indices, with the Nifty Midcap 100 adding 0.42 per cent, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 gaining 0.30 per cent.

Maruti Suzuki, ONGC and Tata Steel were among the major gainers in the Nifty Pack, while losers included Titan Company, Tata Consumer, Dr Reddy’s Labs, Apollo Hospitals and Bajaj Finance.

Among sectoral gainers, all indices were trading in the green except FMCG, IT and Pharma. Top gainers included auto and metal sectors, adding 0.89 per cent and 0.79 per cent.

Immediate support is placed at 26,000–26,050 zone, while resistance is placed near 26,250–26,300 zone, market watchers said.

Indian equities kicked off 2026 on a subdued note on Thursday, with benchmark indices ending largely flat amid thin trading volumes.

Analysts said that the impressive 25.8 per cent YoY increase in passenger vehicles sales in December bodes well for the auto industry and confirms the growth momentum in the economy. If this growth continues even at a slower pace, economic growth is confirmed, proving potential for earnings growth, they added.

The consumer durables industry lagged last year but could catch up. The beneficial impact of the interest rate cuts and GST cuts are yet to reflect in the demand for consumer durables creating good prospects for this sector in the short term, they noted.

In the Asian markets, China’s Shanghai index added 0.09 per cent, and Shenzhen edged down 0.58 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei declined 0.37 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 2.29 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi advanced 1.37 per cent.

The US markets ended in the red zone on the last trading day, as Nasdaq lost 0.76 per cent, the S&P 500 eased 0.74 per cent, and the Dow moved down 0.63 per cent.

On January 1, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 439 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 4,189 crore.

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