Business
If softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead Fed to taper its aggression: Sneha Poddar
Sneha Poddar, AVP Research, Broking & Distribution, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said if the softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead to the US Federal Reserve to taper its aggression. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is more likely to follow the US Fed and thus would not taper its tone till its is adopted by the latter.
Here are excerpts from the interview:
Q. Do you think after US CPI inflation print which came below estimates will allow Fed to go slow on rate hike, and RBI will follow the same?
A: The US CPI inflation data for the month of July came in at 8.5 per cent, down from 9.1 per cent in June and slightly below expectation of 8.7 per cent. However the Fed officials have responded to softening inflation data by saying it doesn’t change their stance towards higher interest rates, as the inflation still remains above the unacceptable levels. Since this is just first sign of inflation peaking out, and is too early to rule out subsequent high inflation data, uncertainty will loom over when the US Fed would slow down on its aggressive rate hikes. If the softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead Fed to taper its aggression. The RBI is more likely to follow US Fed and thus would not taper its tone till its is adopted by US Fed.
Q. 5.40 per cent repo rate is already above pre-pandemic level, but still the RBI maintains “withdrawal of accomodation” stance. Do you think the neutral level of the repo rate is at or above 6 per cent?
A: The RBI has cumulatively hiked the policy repo rate by 140bp to 5.4 per cent in FY23 till date. It reiterated its continued focus on “withdrawal of accommodation” to contain inflation while supporting growth. However, it kept its inflation/growth forecasts unchanged at 6.7 per cent/7.2 per cent YoY, respectively, for FY23. This seems very confusing as how can the rate hikes help contain inflation without hurting growth? Further, the MPC did not sound dovish at all. There was neither a change in stance nor a relief in the RBI Governor’s statement disclaiming a possible pause in rate hikes. Thus we believe that the terminal rate in this hike cycle might be at 5.75-6.0 per cent
Q. In the current market conditions, which sectors are likely to perform well from an investor returns point-of-view?
A: We believe BFSI can do well in rising interest rate scenario. On the other hand with good monsoon, upcoming festive season and softening of commodity prices, the demand both urban and rural are expected to revive and pick up and thus we are positive on Consumer, Auto and Retail. With the opening up of economy and the structural shift being witnessed in favour of the industry post Covid, QSR remains in a sweet spot. While uncertainty around quantum of interest rate hikes is likely to impact the performance of real estate stocks in the near term, longer-term thesis on revival of housing cycle remains intact. There is imminent opportunity in the domestic Hospitality industry and the expected upcycle bodes well for the sector. We are selectively looking at IT sector as valuations have become attractive for accumulation from long term perspective.
Q. Where you see levels on benchmark indices going forward considering the FI inflows in the domestic equities?
A: Strong momentum in the market has helped Nifty rally by more than 2500 points from June lows, and thus, has wiped out the entire decline for the calendar year till date and turned positive. Strong macro data, FII turning positive, steady earnings and healthy progress in monsoon have been some of the key factors supporting the market. FIIs (including primary market) turned positive for the month of July after nine months of continuous outflows and has been continuous buyer throughout the month of August so far. With the softening of commodity prices, even inflation seems to be peaking out and festive season is about to begin which should support demand and thus corporate earnings. Thus the overall trend in the market seems to be positive, however bouts of volatility can’t be ruled out as uncertainty over rate hike quantum and China-Taiwan tussle continues. Further, with this recent rally, Nifty now trades at ~20x FY23E, above its 10-year average, thus offering limited upside in the near term. Going forward, it could be a tug of war between domestic and global factors which could determine the market direction.
Business
Sensex, Nifty Open Flat, Mixed Global Cues & Lack Of Major Domestic Triggers Keep Investor Sentiment Muted

Mumbai: Indian stock markets opened flat with a slight negative trend on Wednesday as mixed global cues and a lack of major domestic triggers kept investor sentiment muted. With the Q2 FY26 earnings season coming to an end, traders showed limited enthusiasm, leaving the indices stuck in a narrow range.
The Sensex slipped 81 points, or 0.10 per cent, to 84,592 in early trade. The Nifty also declined, dropping 34 points, or 0.13 per cent, to 25,877. “The broader benchmark Nifty 50 remains range-bound after the prior session, with resistance seen around 26,000–26,050 and near-term support in the 25,800–25,750 band — a potential accumulation zone for positional traders,” experts said. “Given this setup, a selective buy-on-dips strategy remains appropriate — apply tight trailing stop-losses, and book partial profits on rallies,” analysts mentioned.
Tata Motors PV, NTPC, Bajaj Finserv, Eternal and Sun Pharma were among the major drags on the Sensex. However, gains in HUL, Infosys, TCS, Tata Steel, Tech Mahindra, and Trent helped cushion the fall and prevented a deeper decline. In the broader market, the trend remained weak. The Nifty MidCap index slipped 0.06 per cent, while the Nifty SmallCap index fell 0.23 per cent. Sector-wise, the Nifty IT index was the only notable performer, rising 0.62 per cent as technology stocks saw selective buying.
On the other hand, real estate stocks struggled, with the Nifty Realty index emerging as the biggest loser, down 0.5 per cent. Analysts said markets may continue to remain rangebound in the absence of fresh triggers and ahead of global macroeconomic developments expected later this week. “Investors should prioritise safety at this juncture. Safety is in large caps. Large segments of the mid and small cap space are overvalued having been driven up only by liquidity flows from exuberant investors,” analysts said.
Business
Gold, silver tumble as hopes of December Fed Rate cut fade

Mumbai, Nov 18: Gold and silver prices dropped sharply in the domestic futures market on Tuesday morning as hopes of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in December faded and concerns over US tariffs eased.
This reduced the appeal of safe-haven assets like bullion. At early trade, MCX Gold December futures were trading 1.19 per cent lower at Rs 1,21,466 per 10 grams.
MCX Silver December contracts also declined 1.65 per cent to Rs 1,52,750 per kg.
“Gold has support at $4000-3965 while resistance at $4075-4110. Silver has support at $49.70-49.45 while resistance is at $50.75-51.10,” market watchers said.
“In INR gold has support at Rs1,22,350-1,21,780 while resistance at Rs1,23,750-1,24,500. Silver has support at Rs1,53,850-1,52,100 while resistance at Rs1,56,540, 1,57,280,” they added.
Internationally, gold prices slipped for the fourth straight session on Tuesday.
A stronger US dollar and weakening expectations of a rate cut next month continued to weigh on the metal.
The dollar index rose to 99.59, making gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Gold, which is priced in US dollars, becomes costlier when the greenback strengthens, resulting in reduced demand.
The recent US government shutdown, which lasted a record 43 days, had delayed the release of important economic data, creating uncertainty about the condition of the world’s largest economy.
With the shutdown now over, attention has shifted to key data releases expected this week, including the September nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday.
These numbers will play a major role in shaping expectations around the US Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates.
Meanwhile, Fed officials continue to send mixed signals on the future path of monetary policy, adding further uncertainty to the market.
With no major positive fundamental triggers in recent days, bulls remain hesitant—especially with both metals still trading at historically high levels.
“Traders now await a fresh round of US economic data later this week. Meanwhile, a firmer US Dollar Index and slightly higher 10-year Treasury yields added pressure to precious metals,” analysts said.
Business
Sensex, Nifty open lower on weak global cues

Mumbai, Nov 18: Indian stock markets opened lower on Tuesday as weak global cues weighed on investor sentiment. Both benchmark indices slipped 0.2 per cent at the opening bell.
The Sensex dropped 195 points to trade at 84,756 in early deals, while the Nifty fell 64 points to 25,949. Most heavyweight stocks were under pressure, dragging the indices down.
“Immediate resistance now lies at 26,100, followed by 26,150, while the 25,850–25,900 band is likely to offer meaningful support and serve as an accumulation zone for positional traders,” market experts said.
“These levels will remain crucial as the index navigates early weakness,” experts noted.
Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech, Sun Pharma and Titan were among the major laggards, declining between 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent.
However, a few stocks managed to stay in positive territory. Bharat Electronics, Bharti Airtel, Axis Bank, Eternal and State Bank of India were the only gainers on the Sensex, rising up to 0.5 per cent.
Broader markets also opened weak, with the Nifty MidCap index slipping 0.25 per cent and the Nifty SmallCap index falling 0.40 per cent.
Among sectoral indices, Nifty PSU Bank was the only one to trade higher, gaining 0.25 per cent. On the other hand, Nifty Realty and Nifty Metal dropped 0.8 per cent each, while the Nifty IT index fell 0.5 per cent.
The Bank Nifty mirrored the broader market’s resilience, reflecting renewed buying momentum.
“Strong support is identified at 58,600, and a breakdown below this mark may trigger a modest decline toward 58,800,” market watchers mentioned.
“On the upside, resistance at 59,100 remains a key barrier, and a sustained breakout above this level may open the path toward 59,300, indicating potential continuation of the bullish trend,” experts stated.
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