Business
If softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead Fed to taper its aggression: Sneha Poddar

Sneha Poddar, AVP Research, Broking & Distribution, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said if the softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead to the US Federal Reserve to taper its aggression. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is more likely to follow the US Fed and thus would not taper its tone till its is adopted by the latter.
Here are excerpts from the interview:
Q. Do you think after US CPI inflation print which came below estimates will allow Fed to go slow on rate hike, and RBI will follow the same?
A: The US CPI inflation data for the month of July came in at 8.5 per cent, down from 9.1 per cent in June and slightly below expectation of 8.7 per cent. However the Fed officials have responded to softening inflation data by saying it doesn’t change their stance towards higher interest rates, as the inflation still remains above the unacceptable levels. Since this is just first sign of inflation peaking out, and is too early to rule out subsequent high inflation data, uncertainty will loom over when the US Fed would slow down on its aggressive rate hikes. If the softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead Fed to taper its aggression. The RBI is more likely to follow US Fed and thus would not taper its tone till its is adopted by US Fed.
Q. 5.40 per cent repo rate is already above pre-pandemic level, but still the RBI maintains “withdrawal of accomodation” stance. Do you think the neutral level of the repo rate is at or above 6 per cent?
A: The RBI has cumulatively hiked the policy repo rate by 140bp to 5.4 per cent in FY23 till date. It reiterated its continued focus on “withdrawal of accommodation” to contain inflation while supporting growth. However, it kept its inflation/growth forecasts unchanged at 6.7 per cent/7.2 per cent YoY, respectively, for FY23. This seems very confusing as how can the rate hikes help contain inflation without hurting growth? Further, the MPC did not sound dovish at all. There was neither a change in stance nor a relief in the RBI Governor’s statement disclaiming a possible pause in rate hikes. Thus we believe that the terminal rate in this hike cycle might be at 5.75-6.0 per cent
Q. In the current market conditions, which sectors are likely to perform well from an investor returns point-of-view?
A: We believe BFSI can do well in rising interest rate scenario. On the other hand with good monsoon, upcoming festive season and softening of commodity prices, the demand both urban and rural are expected to revive and pick up and thus we are positive on Consumer, Auto and Retail. With the opening up of economy and the structural shift being witnessed in favour of the industry post Covid, QSR remains in a sweet spot. While uncertainty around quantum of interest rate hikes is likely to impact the performance of real estate stocks in the near term, longer-term thesis on revival of housing cycle remains intact. There is imminent opportunity in the domestic Hospitality industry and the expected upcycle bodes well for the sector. We are selectively looking at IT sector as valuations have become attractive for accumulation from long term perspective.
Q. Where you see levels on benchmark indices going forward considering the FI inflows in the domestic equities?
A: Strong momentum in the market has helped Nifty rally by more than 2500 points from June lows, and thus, has wiped out the entire decline for the calendar year till date and turned positive. Strong macro data, FII turning positive, steady earnings and healthy progress in monsoon have been some of the key factors supporting the market. FIIs (including primary market) turned positive for the month of July after nine months of continuous outflows and has been continuous buyer throughout the month of August so far. With the softening of commodity prices, even inflation seems to be peaking out and festive season is about to begin which should support demand and thus corporate earnings. Thus the overall trend in the market seems to be positive, however bouts of volatility can’t be ruled out as uncertainty over rate hike quantum and China-Taiwan tussle continues. Further, with this recent rally, Nifty now trades at ~20x FY23E, above its 10-year average, thus offering limited upside in the near term. Going forward, it could be a tug of war between domestic and global factors which could determine the market direction.
Business
Sensex plunges nearly 2 pc amid US reciprocal tariff concerns

Mumbai, April 1: Indian stock markets on Tuesday witnessed a sharp decline on the first trading day of the new financial year. The fall came as investors reacted to global market concerns, especially the upcoming US reciprocal tariffs on April 2.
The Sensex, which represents 30 major companies, dropped by 1,390.41 points or 1.80 per cent to close at 76,024.51. During the trading session, it fluctuated between an intra-day high of 77,487.05 and a low of 75,912.18.
The Nifty index also tumbled 353.65 points or 1.50 per cent, ending at 23,165.70. It touched a high of 23,565.15 and a low of 23,136.40 during the intra-day.
Almost all stocks in the Sensex index ended lower, except Zomato, IndusInd Bank, and State Bank of India (SBI).
The biggest losers included HCL Technologies, Bajaj Finserv, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance, and Infosys, which saw their share prices decline by up to 3.66 per cent.
Midcap and smallcap stocks also faced pressure. The Nifty Midcap100 index closed 0.86 per cent lower, while the Nifty Smallcap100 index slipped 0.70 per cent.
The BSE Midcap index was down 0.9 per cent, whereas the Smallcap index managed to rise slightly by 0.2 per cent.
Sector-wise, most indices ended in the red, with IT, real estate, and consumer durables stocks falling by around 2 per cent each. Only media, oil & gas, and telecom stocks managed to stay positive.
Market volatility also surged as the India VIX, commonly known as the fear index, jumped 8.37 per cent to 13.78 points. This suggests that investors are increasingly cautious about the market’s direction.
Analysts suggest that market fluctuations may continue until there is more clarity on global trade relations and economic policies as investors remain concern about Trump’s tariff policies and their impact on international trade.
“Amid heightened global volatility ahead of the anticipated US reciprocal tariff announcement tomorrow (US time), the domestic market witnessed a significant sell-off today. Investors are eagerly awaiting the specifics of these tariffs while also keeping a close eye on ongoing negotiations for a potential Indo-US trade agreement,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited.
The IT sector was among the hardest hit due to its substantial exposure to the US market, and real estate stocks fell following Maharashtra’s upward revision of ready reckoner rates, which affect property valuations.
National
Bengal minister among 30 TMC MLAs asked to clarify absence on last day of Assembly session

Kolkata, April 1: The internal disciplinary committee of Trinamool Congress’ legislative party in the West Bengal Assembly has finally shortlisted 30 party MLAs, including a member of the state cabinet for being absent on March 20, the last day of the second phase of the budget session, ignoring the party whip.
The absent MLAs had not even given prior intimation about their absence to the office of the Speaker, Biman Bandopadhyay.
These legislators, including the state minister, will have to personally appear in front of the disciplinary committee this month and justify why internal disciplinary action will not be initiated against them for ignoring the party whip.
The name of Manoj Tiwari, the cricketer-turned-politician and the current West Bengal Minister of State for Youth and Sports Affairs department, also figures in the list of those who will have to justify the reason behind their absence during House proceedings and ignoring party whip, said a member of the disciplinary committee who refused to be named.
Tiwari joined Trinamool Congress in 2021 before the state Assembly elections that year and was elected as a party legislator from the Shibpur Assembly constituency in the Kolkata-adjacent Howrah district. After the new state cabinet was announced, his name figured in the list.
Initially, it was decided that the meeting of the internal disciplinary committee would be conducted on March 29. However, the meeting on that date was cancelled because of the preoccupations of the MLAs including the members of the disciplinary committee because of the Eid festival.
The committee is chaired by the state Parliamentary Affairs Minister, Sovandeb Chattopadhyay. The other members of the committee include the West Bengal Minister of State for Finance (independent charge) Chandrima Bhattacharya, the state Municipal Affairs and Urban Development Minister and Kolkata Mayor Firhad Hakim, state Power Minister Arup Biswas and the chief whip of Trinamool Congress’s legislative party in state Assembly, Nirmal Ghosh.
Trinamool Congress had issued a whip, making the presence of all party legislators mandatory on the last two days of the second phase of the budget session on March 19 and March 20.
Although the presence on the part of the legislators was almost 100 per cent on March 19, several legislators, including the minister, skipped attendance on March 20.
National
SC refuses to entertain fresh PIL against Places of Worship Act 1991

New Delhi, April 1: The Supreme Court on Tuesday declined to entertain a public interest litigation (PIL) challenging the constitutional validity of a provision of the Places of Worship Act, 1991.
In the alternative, a bench of CJI Sanjiv Khanna and Justice Sanjay Kumar suggested the PIL litigant to move an intervention application in the pending clutch of pleas challenging the validity of the contentious law, which prohibits the filing of a lawsuit to reclaim a place of worship or seek a change in its character from what prevailed on August 15, 1947.
The CJI Khanna-led Special Bench, in an interim order passed on December 12, 2024, ordered that no fresh suits would be registered under the Places of Worship Act in the country, and in the pending cases, no final or effective orders would be passed till further orders.
As per the latest petition filed through advocate Shweta Sinha, Section 4(2) of the 1991 Act is manifestly arbitrary, irrational and violative of Articles 14, 21, 25, and 26 of the Constitution.
“This provision not only closes the doors of mediation but also takes away the power of the judiciary. The legislature cannot take away the power of the judiciary to preside over disputes. This has been done through colourable legislation,” stated the plea.
In March 2021, a Bench headed by then Chief Justice of India S.A. Bobde sought the Centre’s response to the plea filed by advocate Ashwini Upadhyay challenging the validity of certain provisions of the law, prohibiting the filing of a lawsuit to reclaim a place of worship or seek a change in its character from what prevailed on August 15, 1947.
The plea said: “The 1991 Act was enacted in the garb of ‘public order’, which is a state subject (Schedule-7, List-II, Entry-1) and ‘places of pilgrimages within India’ is also a state subject (Schedule-7, List-II, Entry-7). So, the Centre can’t enact the Law. Moreover, Article 13(2) prohibits the State from making a law to take away fundamental rights, but the 1991 Act takes away the rights of Hindus, Jains, Buddhists, and Sikhs, to restore their ‘places of worship and pilgrimages’, destroyed by barbaric invaders.”
“The Act excludes the birthplace of Lord Rama but includes the birthplace of Lord Krishna, though both are incarnations of Lord Vishnu, the creator and equally worshipped throughout the world, hence, it is arbitrary,” it added.
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