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If softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead Fed to taper its aggression: Sneha Poddar

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Sneha Poddar, AVP Research, Broking & Distribution, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said if the softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead to the US Federal Reserve to taper its aggression. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is more likely to follow the US Fed and thus would not taper its tone till its is adopted by the latter.

Here are excerpts from the interview:

Q. Do you think after US CPI inflation print which came below estimates will allow Fed to go slow on rate hike, and RBI will follow the same?

A: The US CPI inflation data for the month of July came in at 8.5 per cent, down from 9.1 per cent in June and slightly below expectation of 8.7 per cent. However the Fed officials have responded to softening inflation data by saying it doesn’t change their stance towards higher interest rates, as the inflation still remains above the unacceptable levels. Since this is just first sign of inflation peaking out, and is too early to rule out subsequent high inflation data, uncertainty will loom over when the US Fed would slow down on its aggressive rate hikes. If the softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead Fed to taper its aggression. The RBI is more likely to follow US Fed and thus would not taper its tone till its is adopted by US Fed.

Q. 5.40 per cent repo rate is already above pre-pandemic level, but still the RBI maintains “withdrawal of accomodation” stance. Do you think the neutral level of the repo rate is at or above 6 per cent?

A: The RBI has cumulatively hiked the policy repo rate by 140bp to 5.4 per cent in FY23 till date. It reiterated its continued focus on “withdrawal of accommodation” to contain inflation while supporting growth. However, it kept its inflation/growth forecasts unchanged at 6.7 per cent/7.2 per cent YoY, respectively, for FY23. This seems very confusing as how can the rate hikes help contain inflation without hurting growth? Further, the MPC did not sound dovish at all. There was neither a change in stance nor a relief in the RBI Governor’s statement disclaiming a possible pause in rate hikes. Thus we believe that the terminal rate in this hike cycle might be at 5.75-6.0 per cent

Q. In the current market conditions, which sectors are likely to perform well from an investor returns point-of-view?

A: We believe BFSI can do well in rising interest rate scenario. On the other hand with good monsoon, upcoming festive season and softening of commodity prices, the demand both urban and rural are expected to revive and pick up and thus we are positive on Consumer, Auto and Retail. With the opening up of economy and the structural shift being witnessed in favour of the industry post Covid, QSR remains in a sweet spot. While uncertainty around quantum of interest rate hikes is likely to impact the performance of real estate stocks in the near term, longer-term thesis on revival of housing cycle remains intact. There is imminent opportunity in the domestic Hospitality industry and the expected upcycle bodes well for the sector. We are selectively looking at IT sector as valuations have become attractive for accumulation from long term perspective.

Q. Where you see levels on benchmark indices going forward considering the FI inflows in the domestic equities?

A: Strong momentum in the market has helped Nifty rally by more than 2500 points from June lows, and thus, has wiped out the entire decline for the calendar year till date and turned positive. Strong macro data, FII turning positive, steady earnings and healthy progress in monsoon have been some of the key factors supporting the market. FIIs (including primary market) turned positive for the month of July after nine months of continuous outflows and has been continuous buyer throughout the month of August so far. With the softening of commodity prices, even inflation seems to be peaking out and festive season is about to begin which should support demand and thus corporate earnings. Thus the overall trend in the market seems to be positive, however bouts of volatility can’t be ruled out as uncertainty over rate hike quantum and China-Taiwan tussle continues. Further, with this recent rally, Nifty now trades at ~20x FY23E, above its 10-year average, thus offering limited upside in the near term. Going forward, it could be a tug of war between domestic and global factors which could determine the market direction.

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Sensex, Nifty end flat amid mixed sectoral cues

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Mumbai, Dec 30: Indian benchmark indices ended Tuesday’s session almost flat, but with a slight negative tone, as gains in PSU banks, metal and auto stocks were offset by selling pressure in IT, FMCG, realty and pharma shares.

The Sensex closed at 84,675.08, slipping 20.46 points or 0.02 per cent, while the Nifty settled marginally lower at 25,938.85, down 3.25 points or 0.01 per cent.

“The Nifty has also slipped below the 21 EMA, reinforcing the short-term downtrend. Immediate support is placed in the 25,850–25,870 zone,” market watchers stated.

“A decisive break below this level could intensify bearish sentiment, while resistance is placed at 26,000,” analysts mentioned.

Markets witnessed a cautious mood as investors balanced sector-specific buying against profit booking in select heavyweights.

On the Sensex, stocks such as Eternal, Infosys, Asian Paints, UltraTech Cement and Bajaj Finance ended among the top losers, weighing on the index.

On the other hand, M&M, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finserv and Axis Bank provided support and closed higher.

The broader market also saw mild weakness. The Nifty Midcap 100 index ended lower by 0.15 per cent, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 declined 0.28 per cent.

Sector-wise, real estate, IT and pharma stocks remained under pressure. The Nifty Realty index fell 0.84 per cent, while the Nifty IT and Pharma indices declined 0.74 per cent and 0.17 per cent, respectively.

In contrast, strong buying was seen in PSU bank, metal and auto stocks. The Nifty PSU Bank index jumped 1.69 per cent, the Nifty Metal index rose 2.03 per cent, and the Nifty Auto index gained 1.08 per cent.

Analysts said that the market ended the day on a flat note as investors preferred selective buying, with sectoral trends driving movement rather than broad-based participation.

“Fresh buying at lower levels, along with short covering in banking, auto, and metal stocks following the expiry of monthly derivative contracts, helped the Nifty recoup most of its intraday losses and close the session largely flat,” market watchers mentioned.

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Business

From labour laws to market reforms, India’s growth story built on credibility and stability: PM Modi

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New Delhi, Dec 30: Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday said that India’s growth story is being shaped by credibility, stability, and long-term confidence, driven by a series of sustained reforms across sectors ranging from labour laws and trade agreements to logistics, energy, and market reforms.

In a post on X, the Prime Minister referred to Union Minister Hardeep Singh Puri’s write-up on “Reform Express 2025”, which reflects the “quiet but consistent work of governance that has helped clear long-pending bottlenecks week after week”.

PM Modi said these steady reforms are laying a strong foundation for India’s future growth.

“Union Minister Hardeep Singh Puri writes on Reform Express 2025. He reflects on the quiet, cumulative work of governance that cleared bottlenecks week after week,” he said.

“From labour laws and trade agreements to logistics, energy and market reforms, India’s growth story is being built on credibility, stability and long-term confidence,” he added.

In his article, Union Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Puri highlighted how the PM Modi government’s reform push is improving ease of doing business and strengthening investor confidence.

Puri had described “Reform Express 2025” as the cumulative impact of consistent governance, where obstacles are addressed regularly rather than through sudden, disruptive changes.

He had said that in an uncertain global environment marked by political instability, the steady leadership of Narendra Modi stands out.

Puri had pointed out that key steps such as modern labour codes, major trade agreements, the Securities Market Code Bill and the Indian Ports Act 2025 are creating a solid base for long-term economic expansion.

He also said that the SHANTI Bill is a major step towards modernising India’s civil nuclear framework.

According to the minister, these reforms follow a clear pattern of cleaning up outdated laws, decriminalising minor offences, modernising labour compliance, strengthening market oversight, digitising trade processes, improving logistics, and reducing risks in long-term energy investments.

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Sensex, Nifty trade flat amid mixed global cues

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Mumbai, Dec 29: Indian benchmark indices traded flat with a mild positive bias early on Monday, tracking mixed global cues and subdued year-end participation.

As of 9.30 am, Sensex moved up 40 points, or 0.04 per cent to 85,081 and Nifty gained 14 points, or 0.05 per cent to 26,057.

Main broad-cap indices performed in line with benchmark indices, with the Nifty Midcap 100 advanced 0.14 per cent, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 added 0.18 per cent.

Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel and NTPC were among the major gainers in the Nifty Pack, while losers included Bajaj Finserv, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance and Tata Consumer.

Among sectoral gainers, the Nifty Metal index was the top performer, rising 1.11 per cent, followed by Nifty Auto and Nifty Realty, which gained 0.26 per cent and 0.25 per cent, respectively.

According to analysts, immediate support is placed at 25,850–25,900 zone, while 26,150–26,200 remains a crucial resistance band. Stable crude prices and a relatively steady rupee continue to offer underlying support, preventing sharp downside.

They further said that underperformance of India compared to most developed and emerging markets in 2025 is set to change in 2026 as Indian macros are in the ‘Goldilocks’ zone, with robust economic growth and recovery in earnings from Q3 FY26.

However, these factors are not enough to spark a rally soon, market watchers said. The market needs a US-India trade deal with positive surprises for India to rebound. A consolidation phase is likely in the near term in the absence of such surprises, they added.

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed in the morning session, as investors kicked off the final trading week of the year.

In Asian markets, China’s Shanghai index advanced 0.31 per cent, and Shenzhen edged up 0.03 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei lost 0.31 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.39 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi added 1.52 per cent.

The US markets ended in the red zone on the last trading day, as Nasdaq lost 0.09 per cent, the S&P 500 eased 0.03 per cent, and the Dow moved down 0.04 per cent.

On December 26, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 317 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 1,772 crore.

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