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If softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead Fed to taper its aggression: Sneha Poddar

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Sneha Poddar, AVP Research, Broking & Distribution, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said if the softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead to the US Federal Reserve to taper its aggression. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is more likely to follow the US Fed and thus would not taper its tone till its is adopted by the latter.

Here are excerpts from the interview:

Q. Do you think after US CPI inflation print which came below estimates will allow Fed to go slow on rate hike, and RBI will follow the same?

A: The US CPI inflation data for the month of July came in at 8.5 per cent, down from 9.1 per cent in June and slightly below expectation of 8.7 per cent. However the Fed officials have responded to softening inflation data by saying it doesn’t change their stance towards higher interest rates, as the inflation still remains above the unacceptable levels. Since this is just first sign of inflation peaking out, and is too early to rule out subsequent high inflation data, uncertainty will loom over when the US Fed would slow down on its aggressive rate hikes. If the softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead Fed to taper its aggression. The RBI is more likely to follow US Fed and thus would not taper its tone till its is adopted by US Fed.

Q. 5.40 per cent repo rate is already above pre-pandemic level, but still the RBI maintains “withdrawal of accomodation” stance. Do you think the neutral level of the repo rate is at or above 6 per cent?

A: The RBI has cumulatively hiked the policy repo rate by 140bp to 5.4 per cent in FY23 till date. It reiterated its continued focus on “withdrawal of accommodation” to contain inflation while supporting growth. However, it kept its inflation/growth forecasts unchanged at 6.7 per cent/7.2 per cent YoY, respectively, for FY23. This seems very confusing as how can the rate hikes help contain inflation without hurting growth? Further, the MPC did not sound dovish at all. There was neither a change in stance nor a relief in the RBI Governor’s statement disclaiming a possible pause in rate hikes. Thus we believe that the terminal rate in this hike cycle might be at 5.75-6.0 per cent

Q. In the current market conditions, which sectors are likely to perform well from an investor returns point-of-view?

A: We believe BFSI can do well in rising interest rate scenario. On the other hand with good monsoon, upcoming festive season and softening of commodity prices, the demand both urban and rural are expected to revive and pick up and thus we are positive on Consumer, Auto and Retail. With the opening up of economy and the structural shift being witnessed in favour of the industry post Covid, QSR remains in a sweet spot. While uncertainty around quantum of interest rate hikes is likely to impact the performance of real estate stocks in the near term, longer-term thesis on revival of housing cycle remains intact. There is imminent opportunity in the domestic Hospitality industry and the expected upcycle bodes well for the sector. We are selectively looking at IT sector as valuations have become attractive for accumulation from long term perspective.

Q. Where you see levels on benchmark indices going forward considering the FI inflows in the domestic equities?

A: Strong momentum in the market has helped Nifty rally by more than 2500 points from June lows, and thus, has wiped out the entire decline for the calendar year till date and turned positive. Strong macro data, FII turning positive, steady earnings and healthy progress in monsoon have been some of the key factors supporting the market. FIIs (including primary market) turned positive for the month of July after nine months of continuous outflows and has been continuous buyer throughout the month of August so far. With the softening of commodity prices, even inflation seems to be peaking out and festive season is about to begin which should support demand and thus corporate earnings. Thus the overall trend in the market seems to be positive, however bouts of volatility can’t be ruled out as uncertainty over rate hike quantum and China-Taiwan tussle continues. Further, with this recent rally, Nifty now trades at ~20x FY23E, above its 10-year average, thus offering limited upside in the near term. Going forward, it could be a tug of war between domestic and global factors which could determine the market direction.

Business

Maharashtra govt issues notice to Ola Electric over missing trade certificates

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Pune, April 4: The Maharashtra government has issued a notice to Ola Electric Mobility Limited, asking the company to explain why some of its stores in the state are operating without valid trade certificates.

According to the notice from the Transport Commissioner’s Office, several Ola Electric showrooms and service centres in Maharashtra are being run without the required documents.

The notice also accuses the company of illegally selling vehicles through these unauthorised outlets.

According to media report, the notice, dated March 31, gives the company three days to respond.

“This is a very serious matter, and you are requested to provide an explanation within three days as to why action should not be taken against your company for this act,” the notice said.

It was reportedly signed by Joint Transport Commissioner Ravi Gaikwad. However, as of now, Ola Electric has not responded officially on the issue.

The notice follows an earlier inspection drive initiated by the state transport authority.

On March 21, NDTV Profit had reported that Maharashtra’s Transport Commissioner had instructed all Regional Transport Offices (RTOs) to carry out special checks at Ola Electric stores.

These inspections reportedly revealed that many outlets were functioning without the necessary trade certificates.

As per the Central Motor Vehicles Act, 1988, and the Central Motor Vehicle Rules, 1989, every vehicle distributor or manufacturer must obtain a trade certificate to register and sell vehicles.

In addition, Rule 35 of the same law states that each showroom or dealership must have a separate certificate from the concerned registration authority.

The shares of the electric two-wheeler manufacturer closed lower by Rs 1.42 or 2.63 per cent to close the intra-day trade at Rs 52.62 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE).

Earlier this week, the company saw a sharp drop in its electric two-wheeler sales in March 2025, selling 23,430 units — a steep 56 per cent decline compared to the same month last year.

The company said on April 1 that the fall was mainly due to disruptions caused by its recent shift to handling vehicle registrations in-house, a process that began in February.

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Business

Cabinet okays 4 projects worth Rs. 18,658 crore to expand track network of Indian Railways

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New Delhi, April 4: The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has approved four projects to expand the track network of Indian Railways with an investment of Rs 18,658 crore, according to an official statement issued on Friday.

The four projects covering 15 districts in three states – Maharashtra, Odisha, and Chhattisgarh – will increase the existing network of Indian Railways by about 1,247 km.

These projects include Sambalpur-Jarapda 3rd and 4th Lines, Jharsuguda-Sason 3rd and 4th Lines, Kharsia-Naya Raipur-Parmalkasa 5th and 6th Lines, and Gondia-Balharshah doubling

The enhanced line capacity will improve mobility, providing enhanced efficiency and service reliability for Indian Railways. These multi-tracking proposals will ease operations and reduce congestion, providing the much-needed infrastructural development on the busiest sections across Indian Railways. The projects are in line with PM Modi’s vision of a New India, which will make people of the region “Aatmanirbhar” with comprehensive development in the area, which will enhance their employment/ opportunities, the official statement said.

The projects are part of the PM-Gati Shakti National Master Plan for multi-modal connectivity which entail integrated planning and will provide seamless connectivity for movement of people, goods and services.

With these projects, 19 new stations will be constructed, enhancing connectivity to two Aspirational Districts (Gadchiroli and Rajnandgaon). The multi-tracking project will enhance connectivity to around 3,350 villages and about 47.25 lakh population.

Kharsia-Naya Raipur-Parmalkasa lines will provide direct connectivity to new areas such as Baloda Bazar, and this will create possibilities for the setting up of new industrial units, including cement plants, in the region.

These lines are essential routes for the transportation of commodities such as agricultural products, fertiliser, coal, iron ore, steel, cement, and limestone. The capacity augmentation works will result in additional freight traffic of magnitude 88.77 MTPA (Million Tonnes Per Annum), the statement said.

With rhe Railways being an environment friendly and energy efficient mode of transportation, the new projects will help both in achieving climate goals and minimising logistics costs of the country. The projects are expected to reduce oil import by 95 crore litres and lower CO2 emissions by 477 crore kg, which is equivalent to planting 19 crore trees, the statement added.

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National

‘Waqf Bill will benefit Muslims, no threat to religious sites,’ says Shahabuddin Razvi

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New Delhi, April 4: Maulana Shahabuddin Razvi, the National President of All India Muslim Jamaat, expressed his support for the Waqf (Amendment) Bill, stating that it would significantly benefit Muslims and ensure the betterment of their socio-economic conditions.

He praised the passage of the bill in both the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha and thanked the Modi government.

Maulana Shahabuddin, giving his first reaction to passage of bill, said, “The Waqf Amendment Bill does not harm common Muslims, it will benefit them. The only ones who stand to lose are the Waqf land mafias who have illegally occupied valuable land. Common Muslims will not be affected by this.”

He further stated that the bill is aimed at protecting the interests of the poor and vulnerable sections of the Muslim community.

The Maulana explained that the revenue generated from Waqf land would be used to improve the socio-economic status of impoverished Muslims, particularly those unable to afford quality education for their children.

“The income from Waqf land will be used for the benefit of poor Muslims, helping children from low-income families get a better education, and assisting orphans and widows in their development,” he said.

Maulana Shahabuddin assured that the funds would be used according to the intention of the Waqf and aimed at opening schools, colleges, madrasas, and orphanages to uplift the educational and social standing of underprivileged Muslims.

Addressing concerns about the impact on religious sites, Maulana Shahabuddin stated, “The Waqf Amendment Bill poses no threat to religious sites. Mosques, madrasas, Eidgahs, cemeteries, and shrines will remain unaffected. The government will not interfere with these religious institutions in any way.”

He further cautioned the Muslim community against falling prey to misleading political narratives, urging them not to be swayed by political figures seeking to exploit the situation for their own gain.

“Some politicians are misleading Muslims for their own interests. I appeal to the Muslim community to not fall for their provocations,” he added.

In the early hours of Friday, the Rajya Sabha approved the Waqf (Amendment) Bill, 2025, with a majority of 128 votes against 95, following a heated debate. The Bill had been passed in the Lok Sabha just a day earlier, after nearly 12 hours of intense discussions.

Drawing a parallel to the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) controversy, Maulana Shahabuddin recalled how political leaders misled the Muslim community, causing unwarranted fear that Muslims would lose their citizenship.

“When the CAA law was introduced, Muslims were misled into believing that their citizenship would be revoked. However, after its implementation, it became clear that no Muslim in India lost their citizenship, and instead, many were granted citizenship,” he stated.

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