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‘If rupee continues to be under pressure, RBI may look at alternate measures’

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Rahul Singh, Senior Fund Manager � Fixed Income, LIC Mutual Fund Asset Management Ltd, said that if the rupee continues to be under pressure, the RBI may look at alternate measures. The recent fall in 10-year US yield and dollar index may also have provided some respite for the time being.

Excerpts from the interview:

Q. How much repo rate hike do you expect in the upcoming monetary policy and what will be the stance?

A: We expect 35-50 bps repo rate hike in the upcoming policy. The MPC stance however may not be changed from the last policy.

Q. What will be the inflation and growth outlook by the RBI?

A: The RBI may continue to maintain that they see inflation around 6 per cent mark by Q4 FY23. Inflation has softened considerably from the levels we have seen in the 1st quarter. Further global commodity prices have corrected to a great extent which is good news considering India is a big importer, Plus, monsoon till now has been good. All this may give comfort to the RBI maintaining its Inflation level of 6 per cent by end of this fiscal year. The RBI may also be positive on their growth numbers and would at least maintain (if not revise upwards) the numbers projected in the last policy. GST numbers, credit growth and PMI numbers have been encouraging.

Q. Will the RBI continue to support rupee on the near term?

A: The RBI has always maintained that they would not want too much volatility in INR and may continue to maintain the same stance, though there might be direct intervention, our reading says they may not be too comfortable in letting reserves slip. It has come down from 650 billion to 572 billion as per latest data. If Rupee continues to be under pressure, the RBI may look at alternate measures. The recent fall in 10-year US yield and dollar index may also have provided some respite for the time being.

Q. Where you see bond yields if the RBI hikes rate in the August policy?

A: Rate hike is a certainty which the market may have factored in. The movement will play on what RBI says on their inflation forecast and how much of the impact they see on rupee movement. If the statement is like last policy with no major deviations in the projected numbers from last policy, we may see 10-year G-Sec yield falling further to 7.20 levels.

Q. Now FII’s net investment turned positive after nearly 9 months and indices are rising, do you think this trend will sustain?

A: While it is difficult to predict the future FII flows, it is fair to assume that FIIs may not wish to remain away from India for a long time. Rising domestic demand, attractive valuations and favourable macroeconomic factors may catch FIIs interest.

Q. What are your views on US Fed hinting that they are looking to slow the pace of rate hikes in the upcoming meetings?

A: If FED is convinced that Inflation is cooling down going forward, then this statement certainly makes sense. It could have originated looking at certain statistics which shows softness in crude and other commodities prices, weakening Chinese economy, Q2 GDP numbers and the talks regarding recession going ahead. However, the question remains that if PCE price index is 6.8 per cent and core PCE is 4.8 per cent, then is inflation softening going ahead?. The weak GDP numbers majorly owe to lower US government spending and higher inventories rather than indicating falling demand. Similar dovish statements were made earlier as well when there were rumours of 75 bps rate hike, however we saw two back-to-back 75 bps hike. My understanding is that as long as Inflation shows a declining trend, FED needs to be aggressive in controlling that otherwise it may unnecessarily elongate the entire hike cycle impacting the growth cycle going ahead.

Business

FM Nirmala Sitharaman Lauds ED After ‘Returning’ Assets Worth ₹22,000 Crore From Fraudsters, Including Mehul Choksi & Vijay Mallya

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Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman stated in a parliamentry debate on Tuesday, December 17, that the Enforcement Directorate (ED) had given victims and legitimate claimants access to assets valued at Rs 22,280 crore.

During the discussion of the first set of Supplementary Demands for Grants in the Lok Sabha, Sitharaman gave an overview of the ED’s initiatives to retrieve ill-gotten wealth and return it to defrauded investors and public sector banks.

Major recoveries by ED (Enforcement Directorate)

In one of the most significant cases, the ED retrieved properties from fugitive businessman Vijay Mallya valued at Rs 14,131.6 crore, which were then turned over to public sector banks.

In the Nirav Modi case, properties valued at Rs 1,052.58 crore were also given back to both public and private banks.

Properties worth Rs 2,565.90 crore that the ED attached in the Mehul Choksi case are now scheduled for auction. In addition, legitimate investors were given back assets from the National Spot Exchange Ltd (NSEL) scam valued at Rs 17.47 crore.

FM emphasised the effectiveness of ‘Black Money Act’

The Finance Minister also emphasized how well the 2015 Black Money Act has worked to reduce unreported foreign assets. Between 2021–2022 and 2024–2025, the number of taxpayers declaring foreign assets increased dramatically from 60,467 to over 2 lakh.

As of June 2024, 163 prosecutions had been started and 697 cases under the Black Money Act had demands totaling Rs 17,520 crore from the government.

Government’s multi agency group

In 582 cases, investigations into international leaks, such as the Panama Papers and Pandora Papers, have uncovered undisclosed income totaling Rs 33,393 crore.

The government has formed a Multi-Agency Group (MAG) for coordinated action against unaccounted foreign assets in order to speed up these efforts. ‘We are after them,’ Sitharaman reaffirmed. We will see to it that funds that are due to banks and investors are reimbursed.

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Business

‘If They Tax Us We Tax Them’: Donald Trump Gives Fresh Warning To India

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US President-Elect Donald Trump has issued a fresh warning to India saying that if it taxes American products, the US will do the same. Trump’s words came during his interaction with journalists at his Mar-a-Lago resort Since his first term, Trump has been hawkish about taxing foreign products but has not fully implemented what he has said. However, Trump’s warnings are taken seriously as markets move according to what a US president says.

“If they tax us, we tax them the same amount,” Trump told reporters.

Other than about India, Trump has been vocal about taxes imposed on American products by Brazil, Mexico and China.

“The word reciprocal is important because if somebody charges us – India, we don’t have to talk about our own – if India charges us 100 per cent, do we charge them nothing for the same? You know, they send in a bicycle, and we send them a bicycle. They charge us 100 and 200. India charges a lot,” said Trump.

“India charges a lot. Brazil charges a lot. If they want to charge us, that’s fine, but we’re going to charge them the same thing,” he added.

The outgoing administration of US President Joe Biden has sounded upbeat about India-US ties. On Tuesday, Biden administration said that it was leaving India-US relations “in a very strong place”

“We continue to be very ambitious about the US-India relationship. We’ve had very high-level engagement over the course of the last several months with the QUAD summit in Delaware, and we are anticipating a high-level engagement in the last few weeks of the Biden administration,” said US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell on Tuesday.

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Business

SEBI Proposes ‘Mutual Fund Investment Tracing and Retrieval Assistant’ To Access Inactive MF Folios

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Markets regulator SEBI has suggested the establishment of a Mutual Fund Investment Tracing and Retrieval Assistant (MITR) in an effort to increase transparency and assist investors in recovering their unclaimed mutual fund investments.

To facilitate the management and transfer of financial assets in the event of a death, market regulator Sebi has suggested utilising DigiLocker, a government digital storage system. Financial documents, such as statements for mutual funds and demat accounts (which hold stocks), are supposed to be safely kept in DigiLocker.

Easy of transfer to designated succesor

DigiLocker will automatically update the deceased person’s account and alert the designated successor (such as a family member) to handle the assets.

The nominee will be able to work with the appropriate agencies to transfer the assets and access the deceased’s financial information in this way. Sebi’s mission is to make sure that assets are distributed to the appropriate heirs and to stop unclaimed assets (such as stocks or funds) from being left behind.

Need of the tracking system

Many investors eventually lose sight of their mutual fund investments, particularly those made in physical form with scant KYC information. Due to out-of-date information, such as a missing PAN, invalid addresses, or no email address, some investments are still inactive.

These folios are frequently overlooked because of this disconnect, which keeps them from showing up in consolidated account statements.

Unless the investor, nominee, or legal heir contacts the appropriate Asset Management Company (AMC) for redemption or transfer, investments in open-ended growth schemes may remain dormant indefinitely.

Such folios are susceptible to fraudulent activities because of the inactivity that may result from investors losing track of their investments or even the death of the account holder.

Functionality of retrievel mechanism

In order to solve this issue, SEBI has recommended that the MITR platform be developed and hosted by two Qualified Registrar and Transfer Agents (QRTAs): ComputerAge Management Services Ltd. (CAMS) and KFin Technologies Ltd.

Through links on important websites like MF Central, specific AMCs, AMFI (Association of Mutual Funds in India), and SEBI itself, the service would function as an industry-level searchable database.

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