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‘If rupee continues to be under pressure, RBI may look at alternate measures’

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Rahul Singh, Senior Fund Manager � Fixed Income, LIC Mutual Fund Asset Management Ltd, said that if the rupee continues to be under pressure, the RBI may look at alternate measures. The recent fall in 10-year US yield and dollar index may also have provided some respite for the time being.

Excerpts from the interview:

Q. How much repo rate hike do you expect in the upcoming monetary policy and what will be the stance?

A: We expect 35-50 bps repo rate hike in the upcoming policy. The MPC stance however may not be changed from the last policy.

Q. What will be the inflation and growth outlook by the RBI?

A: The RBI may continue to maintain that they see inflation around 6 per cent mark by Q4 FY23. Inflation has softened considerably from the levels we have seen in the 1st quarter. Further global commodity prices have corrected to a great extent which is good news considering India is a big importer, Plus, monsoon till now has been good. All this may give comfort to the RBI maintaining its Inflation level of 6 per cent by end of this fiscal year. The RBI may also be positive on their growth numbers and would at least maintain (if not revise upwards) the numbers projected in the last policy. GST numbers, credit growth and PMI numbers have been encouraging.

Q. Will the RBI continue to support rupee on the near term?

A: The RBI has always maintained that they would not want too much volatility in INR and may continue to maintain the same stance, though there might be direct intervention, our reading says they may not be too comfortable in letting reserves slip. It has come down from 650 billion to 572 billion as per latest data. If Rupee continues to be under pressure, the RBI may look at alternate measures. The recent fall in 10-year US yield and dollar index may also have provided some respite for the time being.

Q. Where you see bond yields if the RBI hikes rate in the August policy?

A: Rate hike is a certainty which the market may have factored in. The movement will play on what RBI says on their inflation forecast and how much of the impact they see on rupee movement. If the statement is like last policy with no major deviations in the projected numbers from last policy, we may see 10-year G-Sec yield falling further to 7.20 levels.

Q. Now FII’s net investment turned positive after nearly 9 months and indices are rising, do you think this trend will sustain?

A: While it is difficult to predict the future FII flows, it is fair to assume that FIIs may not wish to remain away from India for a long time. Rising domestic demand, attractive valuations and favourable macroeconomic factors may catch FIIs interest.

Q. What are your views on US Fed hinting that they are looking to slow the pace of rate hikes in the upcoming meetings?

A: If FED is convinced that Inflation is cooling down going forward, then this statement certainly makes sense. It could have originated looking at certain statistics which shows softness in crude and other commodities prices, weakening Chinese economy, Q2 GDP numbers and the talks regarding recession going ahead. However, the question remains that if PCE price index is 6.8 per cent and core PCE is 4.8 per cent, then is inflation softening going ahead?. The weak GDP numbers majorly owe to lower US government spending and higher inventories rather than indicating falling demand. Similar dovish statements were made earlier as well when there were rumours of 75 bps rate hike, however we saw two back-to-back 75 bps hike. My understanding is that as long as Inflation shows a declining trend, FED needs to be aggressive in controlling that otherwise it may unnecessarily elongate the entire hike cycle impacting the growth cycle going ahead.

Business

Explained: EPFO overhauls withdrawal rules to boost transparency, ease access for 30 crore members

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New Delhi, Oct 14: The Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) has restructured its partial withdrawal regulations, combining 13 distinct clauses into three main categories: Essential Needs, Housing Needs, and Special Circumstances. This change aims to make it easier to access provident fund savings.

For the nearly 30 crore members who collectively own a corpus of about Rs 30 lakh crore, the reform aims to make the withdrawal process quicker, simpler, and more transparent.

The revised framework, referred to as EPFO 3.0, has standardised withdrawal limits.

Depending on the goal, members can now access up to 100 per cent of their eligible provident fund balance, which includes employer and employee contributions. However, at least 25 per cent of the EPF balance needs to stay in the account in order to maintain a safety net for retirement.

This implies that members can keep the required balance while withdrawing up to 75 per cent of their total corpus.

Additionally, the new regulations standardise the requirements for services. In the past, there were specific requirements for each type of withdrawal, such as five years of service for housing purposes and seven years for marriage-related withdrawals.

All partial withdrawals are now subject to a single 12-month minimum service period, which streamlines the procedure and removes any ambiguity.

Members will no longer need to provide documentation of their withdrawals under the “Special Circumstances” category, which is a significant relaxation. In the past, withdrawals under this heading required proof of emergencies, such as natural disasters or job loss.

The new clause, which permits members to leave without giving a reason, is anticipated to reduce red tape and expedite approvals.

The EPFO has also increased the withdrawal limits for marriage and education-related withdrawals. Instead of the previous cap of three combined withdrawals, members can now make up to 10 withdrawals for education and five for marriage.

Stricter guidelines for final settlements are also introduced by the reforms, though. In contrast to the previous two-month eligibility window, members can now only apply for an early final settlement 12 months after quitting their job and for pension withdrawal 36 months later.

In the event of a job loss, the 25 per cent minimum balance requirement only applies to partial withdrawals; it does not apply to full settlements.

While it is anticipated that the simplified framework will increase efficiency and transparency, workers who are laid off or have experienced extended periods of unemployment may find it difficult to obtain their provident fund savings immediately during a time when they may need it most, due to the revised settlement timelines.

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Business

Silver hits record high above $52.50 as safe-haven demand fuel rally

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Mumbai, Oct 14: Silver prices soared to an all-time high above $52.50 an ounce on Tuesday, boosted by a historic short squeeze in London and strong demand for safe-haven assets amid global economic uncertainty.

Spot silver rose as much as 0.4 per cent to $52.58 an ounce in London, breaking the previous record set in January 1980 when the billionaire Hunt brothers tried to corner the market.

Gold prices also climbed to a new record, marking eight consecutive weeks of gains, supported by rising geopolitical tensions and expectations of US interest rate cuts.

The rally in silver comes amid concerns over liquidity in the London market, which has triggered a worldwide rush to secure the metal.

Prices in London are trading at a rare premium compared to New York, prompting traders to fly silver bars across the Atlantic — a costly move usually reserved for gold — to benefit from higher prices.

The premium stood at around $1.55 an ounce on Tuesday, down from $3 last week.

Adding to the squeeze, silver lease rates in London — the cost of borrowing the metal — surged above 30 per cent for one-month contracts last Friday, making it expensive for traders to maintain short positions.

The situation worsened as strong demand from India in recent weeks further reduced available supply, following earlier shipments to New York amid fears of US tariffs.

Experts said the latest surge in both gold and silver reflects heightened market uncertainty.

Gold prices have jumped nearly 60 per cent this year, crossing the $4,100 mark for the first time, supported by geopolitical tensions, rate-cut expectations, and strong buying by central banks and investors.

Key US economic data such as inflation and retail sales are due later this week, but analysts warn that if the government shutdown continues, the release of these reports — including jobs data — could be delayed.

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Business

Indian stock markets open higher amid global trade concerns, Q2 earnings buzz

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Mumbai, Oct 14: Indian stock markets opened higher on Tuesday as investors looked past global uncertainties caused by the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, while also tracking quarterly earnings from Indian companies.

The Sensex began the day at 82,562, gaining 235 points or 0.29 per cent. Similarly, the Nifty opened at 25,283, up 55 points or 0.22 per cent.

Among the top performers on the Sensex were HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, Infosys, Bharat Electronics, Bajaj Finserv, Ultratech Cement, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Larsen & Toubro, which rose up to 1.3 per cent.

On the other hand, stocks like Eicher Motors, Maruti Suzuki, Axis Bank, Sun Pharma, State Bank of India, Bajaj Finance, and Bharti Airtel witnessed early losses.

In the broader market, both the Nifty MidCap and Nifty SmallCap indices were trading in the green, rising 0.37 per cent and 0.38 per cent, respectively.

Among sectoral indices, the Nifty Metal index led the gains with a 1 per cent rise, supported by positive momentum in metal stocks.

Meanwhile, the Nifty Pharma index was the biggest laggard, slipping 0.37 per cent.

As per the experts, IT stocks, particularly the largecaps, are viewed as overvalued by the market since they are facing many headwinds and some strong structural issues.

“On the other hand PSU stocks have been trading at very low valuations despite decent growth and robust balance sheets. This anomaly in valuations have been corrected by the market. This trend is likely to continue,” market experts said.

‘However, in growth stocks like digital companies and renewable energy, their long-term growth potential will continue to attract investment despite high valuations,” they added.

With Muhurat trading approaching, there is room for a mild rally, according to analysts.

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