Business
‘If rupee continues to be under pressure, RBI may look at alternate measures’
Rahul Singh, Senior Fund Manager � Fixed Income, LIC Mutual Fund Asset Management Ltd, said that if the rupee continues to be under pressure, the RBI may look at alternate measures. The recent fall in 10-year US yield and dollar index may also have provided some respite for the time being.
Excerpts from the interview:
Q. How much repo rate hike do you expect in the upcoming monetary policy and what will be the stance?
A: We expect 35-50 bps repo rate hike in the upcoming policy. The MPC stance however may not be changed from the last policy.
Q. What will be the inflation and growth outlook by the RBI?
A: The RBI may continue to maintain that they see inflation around 6 per cent mark by Q4 FY23. Inflation has softened considerably from the levels we have seen in the 1st quarter. Further global commodity prices have corrected to a great extent which is good news considering India is a big importer, Plus, monsoon till now has been good. All this may give comfort to the RBI maintaining its Inflation level of 6 per cent by end of this fiscal year. The RBI may also be positive on their growth numbers and would at least maintain (if not revise upwards) the numbers projected in the last policy. GST numbers, credit growth and PMI numbers have been encouraging.
Q. Will the RBI continue to support rupee on the near term?
A: The RBI has always maintained that they would not want too much volatility in INR and may continue to maintain the same stance, though there might be direct intervention, our reading says they may not be too comfortable in letting reserves slip. It has come down from 650 billion to 572 billion as per latest data. If Rupee continues to be under pressure, the RBI may look at alternate measures. The recent fall in 10-year US yield and dollar index may also have provided some respite for the time being.
Q. Where you see bond yields if the RBI hikes rate in the August policy?
A: Rate hike is a certainty which the market may have factored in. The movement will play on what RBI says on their inflation forecast and how much of the impact they see on rupee movement. If the statement is like last policy with no major deviations in the projected numbers from last policy, we may see 10-year G-Sec yield falling further to 7.20 levels.
Q. Now FII’s net investment turned positive after nearly 9 months and indices are rising, do you think this trend will sustain?
A: While it is difficult to predict the future FII flows, it is fair to assume that FIIs may not wish to remain away from India for a long time. Rising domestic demand, attractive valuations and favourable macroeconomic factors may catch FIIs interest.
Q. What are your views on US Fed hinting that they are looking to slow the pace of rate hikes in the upcoming meetings?
A: If FED is convinced that Inflation is cooling down going forward, then this statement certainly makes sense. It could have originated looking at certain statistics which shows softness in crude and other commodities prices, weakening Chinese economy, Q2 GDP numbers and the talks regarding recession going ahead. However, the question remains that if PCE price index is 6.8 per cent and core PCE is 4.8 per cent, then is inflation softening going ahead?. The weak GDP numbers majorly owe to lower US government spending and higher inventories rather than indicating falling demand. Similar dovish statements were made earlier as well when there were rumours of 75 bps rate hike, however we saw two back-to-back 75 bps hike. My understanding is that as long as Inflation shows a declining trend, FED needs to be aggressive in controlling that otherwise it may unnecessarily elongate the entire hike cycle impacting the growth cycle going ahead.
Business
New excise duty, health cess on cigarettes, pan masala to begin from Feb 1

New Delhi, Jan 31: From February 1, the government is bringing a new tax structure for cigarettes, tobacco products and pan masala, aiming to tighten regulation and keep tax levels high on these so-called ‘sin goods’.
An additional excise duty will now be charged on cigarettes and tobacco products, along with a new health and national security cess on pan masala.
These new levies will replace the earlier system under which these products were taxed at 28 per cent GST along with a compensation cess that has been in place since the launch of GST in July 2017.
The government is also introducing a new MRP-based valuation system for several tobacco products such as chewing tobacco, filter khaini, jarda scented tobacco and gutkha.
Under this system, GST will be calculated based on the retail price printed on the packet, instead of factory value.
This move is expected to reduce tax evasion and improve revenue collection. Pan masala manufacturers will now have to take fresh registration under the new health and national security cess law starting February 1.
They will also be required to install CCTV cameras that cover all packing machines and store the video recordings for at least two years.
In addition, companies must inform excise authorities about the number of machines in their factories and their production capacity.
If any machine remains non-functional for 15 days in a row, manufacturers will be allowed to claim a reduction in excise duty for that period.
Even after the new changes, the government has ensured that the overall tax burden on pan masala, including 40 per cent GST, will remain around the current level of 88 per cent.
Business
Indian stock markets gain this week ahead of Budget 2026

Mumbai, Jan 31: The Indian equity benchmarks gained around 1 per cent during the week, though the trading sessions were volatile but with a cautiously constructive tone amid mixed global cues and rising geopolitical tensions.
Risk appetite weakened toward the end of the week ahead of the Union Budget 2026-27, with volatility resurfacing amid sustained FII outflows and rupee depreciation leading to losses in the last trading session.
Nifty added 1.09 per cent during the week and dipped 0.39 per cent on the last trading day to 25,320. At close, Sensex was down 296 points or 0.36 percent at 81,537. It added 0.90 per cent during the week.
Sectoral indices traded mixed this week with diversified consumer services stocks and hardware tech stocks logging the worst-performance, dipping 2.5 to 3.7 per cent. FMCG, media and software stocks slide over 1 per cent.
Metal stocks as well as oil and gas were the top weekly gainers up over 2 per cent, however Nifty metal index plummeted over 5 per cent on the last trading session. Profit booking also intensified in IT amid a firmer dollar and global liquidity concerns, and caution over incoming Fed Chair, analysts said.
Select pockets of weakness were observed in autos and beverages amid intensifying competitive pressures.
Broader indices posted stronger gains during the week, with the Nifty Midcap100 up 2.25 per cent, while Nifty Smallcap100 gained 3.2 per cent.
The markets opened the week with a subdued sentiment due to renewed tariff-related concerns and mixed corporate earnings, although optimism surrounding the India–EU trade agreement lent support, particularly to trade-oriented sectors.
Market sentiment improved mid-week following a favourable economic survey that reinforced expectations of robust FY27 growth and a benign inflation outlook.
Analysts said that markets remain wary that a potentially stronger inflation focus could prolong tight financial conditions and weigh on emerging markets.
Looking ahead, markets are expected to remain largely event-driven, with the Union Budget acting as the key domestic trigger, they said.
Cyclical sectors may continue to show relative resilience if supported by policy measures, while IT and export-oriented stocks are likely to remain sensitive to global macro cues, analysts added.
Business
Centre’s fertiliser supplies to states scale record high of 530 lakh metric tons in April-December

New Delhi, Jan 30: Fertiliser movement from the Centre to the states on Indian Railways, during the first nine months (April-December) of the financial year 2025-26, reached an all-time high with total supplies crossing 530.16 lakh metric tons to surpass the 500 lakh metric ton mark for the first time during this period, an official statement said on Friday.
This represents a 12.2 per cent increase over the corresponding period of FY 2024–25 and is 8.5 per cent higher than the previous record of FY 2023–24, it said.
The Centre has ensured sufficient availability of all major fertilisers across states, including the supply of 350.45 lakh metric tons of urea, against a requirement of 312.40 lakh metric tons in the first nine months (April-December) of the financial year 2025-26. Similarly, in the case of major P&K (phosphorous and potassium) fertilizers including DAP, MOP & NPKS, the total supply reached 287.69 lakh metric tonnes against the requirement of 252.81 lakh metric tonnes, consistently exceeding the assessed requirement and ensuring uninterrupted availability, the statement said.
Faster and smoother movement of fertiliser rakes enabled timely supplies to states, ensuring that farmers did not face any shortages during the critical stages of cultivation. Department of Fertilisers worked in close cooperation with the Ministry of Railways and stated that such coordinated efforts have helped ensure adequate availability of fertilisers across the country, the statement added.
During this period, average rake loading on Indian Railways increased to 72 rakes per day in July 2025, rose to 78 rakes per day in August 2025 and reached 80 rakes per day in September 2025, according to the official figures.
Urea rake movement rose to 10,841 rakes, registering an 8 per cent increase over last year, while P&K fertilisers recorded 8,806 rakes, marking an 18 per cent growth. Enhanced coordination with the Ministry of Railways, ports, state governments, and fertiliser companies ensured seamless and timely supply to states during peak agricultural seasons, the statement said.
Ensuring the timely availability of fertilisers to farmers has remained one of the government’s highest priorities. In this direction, the improved coordination between the Ministry of Railways and the Department of Fertilisers during Kharif 2025 and the ongoing Rabi season was clearly visible at the ground level. The states also took concerted measures to ensure last-mile availability to farmers, the statement added.
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