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‘If rupee continues to be under pressure, RBI may look at alternate measures’

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Rahul Singh, Senior Fund Manager � Fixed Income, LIC Mutual Fund Asset Management Ltd, said that if the rupee continues to be under pressure, the RBI may look at alternate measures. The recent fall in 10-year US yield and dollar index may also have provided some respite for the time being.

Excerpts from the interview:

Q. How much repo rate hike do you expect in the upcoming monetary policy and what will be the stance?

A: We expect 35-50 bps repo rate hike in the upcoming policy. The MPC stance however may not be changed from the last policy.

Q. What will be the inflation and growth outlook by the RBI?

A: The RBI may continue to maintain that they see inflation around 6 per cent mark by Q4 FY23. Inflation has softened considerably from the levels we have seen in the 1st quarter. Further global commodity prices have corrected to a great extent which is good news considering India is a big importer, Plus, monsoon till now has been good. All this may give comfort to the RBI maintaining its Inflation level of 6 per cent by end of this fiscal year. The RBI may also be positive on their growth numbers and would at least maintain (if not revise upwards) the numbers projected in the last policy. GST numbers, credit growth and PMI numbers have been encouraging.

Q. Will the RBI continue to support rupee on the near term?

A: The RBI has always maintained that they would not want too much volatility in INR and may continue to maintain the same stance, though there might be direct intervention, our reading says they may not be too comfortable in letting reserves slip. It has come down from 650 billion to 572 billion as per latest data. If Rupee continues to be under pressure, the RBI may look at alternate measures. The recent fall in 10-year US yield and dollar index may also have provided some respite for the time being.

Q. Where you see bond yields if the RBI hikes rate in the August policy?

A: Rate hike is a certainty which the market may have factored in. The movement will play on what RBI says on their inflation forecast and how much of the impact they see on rupee movement. If the statement is like last policy with no major deviations in the projected numbers from last policy, we may see 10-year G-Sec yield falling further to 7.20 levels.

Q. Now FII’s net investment turned positive after nearly 9 months and indices are rising, do you think this trend will sustain?

A: While it is difficult to predict the future FII flows, it is fair to assume that FIIs may not wish to remain away from India for a long time. Rising domestic demand, attractive valuations and favourable macroeconomic factors may catch FIIs interest.

Q. What are your views on US Fed hinting that they are looking to slow the pace of rate hikes in the upcoming meetings?

A: If FED is convinced that Inflation is cooling down going forward, then this statement certainly makes sense. It could have originated looking at certain statistics which shows softness in crude and other commodities prices, weakening Chinese economy, Q2 GDP numbers and the talks regarding recession going ahead. However, the question remains that if PCE price index is 6.8 per cent and core PCE is 4.8 per cent, then is inflation softening going ahead?. The weak GDP numbers majorly owe to lower US government spending and higher inventories rather than indicating falling demand. Similar dovish statements were made earlier as well when there were rumours of 75 bps rate hike, however we saw two back-to-back 75 bps hike. My understanding is that as long as Inflation shows a declining trend, FED needs to be aggressive in controlling that otherwise it may unnecessarily elongate the entire hike cycle impacting the growth cycle going ahead.

Business

Indian stock market opens marginally up, Sensex above 82,000

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Mumbai, Sep 23: The Indian benchmark indices opened with mild gains on Tuesday amid positive global cues, as buying was seen in auto, IT and financial service sectors in the early trade.

As of 9.22 am, Sensex was trading 122.13 points or 0.15 per cent up at 82,282.10 while the Nifty added 35.85 point or 0.14 per cent at 25,238.20

Nifty Bank was down 26.30 points or 0.05 per cent at 55,258.45. The Nifty Midcap 100 index was trading at 58,686.55 after dropping 12.95 points or 0.02 per cent. Nifty Smallcap 100 index was at 18,293.15 after gaining 4.25 points or 0.02 per cent.

According to experts, for the Nifty index, the resumption of near-term uptrend will depend on whether the slippages stretch beyond the 25200-25000 region or not.

Early moves may retain a positive bias if above 25238, but it would require a direct rise above 25278/335 region to attract momentum, they added.

Meanwhile, in the Sensex pack, Maruti Suzuki, M&M, Tata Motors, Infosys, HDFC Bank, Tech Mahindra and Axis Bank were the top gainers. On the other hand, Ultratech Cement, Sun Pharma, Trent and Asian Paints were the top losers.

In the Asian markets, Jakarta, Bangkok, Japan and Seoul were trading in green, while Hong Kong and China were trading in red.

In the last trading session, Dow Jones in the US closed at 46,381.54, up 66.27 points, or 0.14 per cent. The S&P 500 ended with a gain of 29.39 points, or 0.44 per cent, at 6,693.75 and the Nasdaq closed at 22,788.98, up 157.50 points, or 0.70 per cent.

According to analysts, the major drag on the market since the 2024 September peak is the sustained FII selling, which, in turn, is being triggered by the high valuations in India and attractive valuations elsewhere.

FIIs sold equity worth Rs 121,210 crore in 2024 and this year, they have sold equity for Rs 179,200 crore so far through the exchanges, they said.

The foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers as they sold equities worth Rs 2,910.09 crore on September 22, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) purchased equities worth Rs 2,582.63 crore.

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Business

Stock market opens marginally lower, Nifty IT down 2.68 pc

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Mumbai, Sep 22: The Indian benchmark indices opened marginally lower on Monday, despite positive global cues, with IT stocks leading losses owing to some concerns over the new US H-1B visa rules.

As of 9.26 am, the Sensex was down 189 points, or 0.23 per cent at 82,772 and the Nifty was down 40 points, or 0.16 per cent at 25,286. Sensex and Nifty had opened with dips of 0.40 per cent and 0.33 per cent respectively, but later cut down on the losses.

IT giants such as Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, Wipro, HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, and Coforge slipped in the morning trade.

The US government has clarified that visa holders returning to the country are exempt from the new $100,000 fee, which provided marginal relief to Indian IT companies.

White House said the visa fee would be a one-time payment, applicable only to new applications from the next lottery cycle (March–April 2026), and not on renewals.

The broad cap indices Nifty Midcap 100 dipped 0.05 per cent, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 lost 0.12 per cent.

The losers were Tech Mahindra, TCS, Tata Motors, Apollo Hospitals and Dr Reddy’s Labs.

Among sectoral indices, Nifty IT, the top loser, lost 2.68 per cent. Nifty Pharma (down 0.45 per cent) and Nifty Healthcare (down 0.33 per cent) also weighed down on the indices. All other sectoral indices were trading with marginal gains.

The Nifty index has held firmly above the 25,300 mark, closing at 25,327 in the previous session. It continues to trade above its key moving averages—the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day EMAs—reaffirming the broader bullish undertone.

Analysts predicted that sentiment will remain positive as long as the index remains above these averages. Immediate resistance is placed at 25,500, followed by the 25,600 and 25,850 zones. The support lies at 25,150 and 25,000 zones.

They said that the market is likely to exhibit mixed behaviour, with the IT sector being affected by the H-1B visa issue and domestic consumption themes responding positively to the potential increase in consumption from lower GST rates kicking in from today.

According to them, the present low interest rate regime will aid the consumption boost and will also facilitate an increase in credit demand, boosting the profitability of financials.

Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose on Monday, tracking Wall Street’s gains from Friday and boosted by China’s key lending rate decision that kept key rates unchanged.

In the US markets, Nasdaq has added 0.72 per cent, the S&P 500 edged up 0.49 per cent, and the Dow inched up 0.37 per cent in the last trading session.

Most of the Asian markets were trading in the green during the morning session. While China’s Shanghai index edged up 0.07 per cent, and Shenzhen advanced 0.17 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei added 1.45 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 0.82 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi added 1.06 per cent.

On Friday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) purchased equities worth Rs 390 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 2,105 crore.

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Business

Sensex, Nifty open marginally lower amid mixed global cues

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Mumbai, Sep 19: The Indian benchmark indices opened marginally lower on Friday, with IT stocks leading the losses in early trade.

As of 9.26 am, Sensex was down 241 points or 0.29 per cent at 82,772 and Nifty was down 63 points or 0.25 per cent at 25,360.

The US Federal Reserve resumed interest rates cut cycle by reducing rates by 25 basis points but the outlook on further easing in the months ahead failed to meet the investors’ dovish expectations, while markets awaited more cues into US policy path, according to analysts.

Nifty Midcap 100 inched up by 0.16 per cent, and the Nifty Small cap 100 lost 0.04 per cent.

Hero MotoCorp, Shriram Finance, Maruti Suzuki, NTPC, Tech Mahindra were among major gainers on Nifty, while losers were ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finance, Tata Consumer and Titan Company.

Among sectoral indices, Nifty IT, the top loser, lost 0.40 per cent. Nifty FMCG and Nifty Private bank also weighed down on the indices. Except Nifty Realty and PSU Bank all other sectoral indices were trading in the red or with marginal gains.

The Nifty50 held firmly above the 25,400 mark in the previous session, signalling investor confidence with upside momentum intact.

Analysts said that while buying interest is visible at lower levels, the 25,500–25,600 zone remains a stiff hurdle on the upside. On the downside, support is placed at 25,300–25,100 for any minor pullback.

“Market is on an uptrend and is well positioned to set new records soon. Fundamentals, technicals and sentiments are favourable for a steady uptrend. Earnings are likely to improve from Q3 onwards. Technically, short covering is happening and can accelerate,” said Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.

From the market sentiment perspective, a US-India trade deal without the penal tariff and a lower reciprocal tariff is likely, he added.

Major US indices made gains overnight as the Nasdaq added 0.94 per cent, the S&P 500 edged up 0.48 per cent and the Dow inched up 0.27 per cent.

Most of the Asian markets were trading in the green during the morning session. While China’s Shanghai index dipped 0.12 per cent, and Shenzhen advanced 0.23 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei edged up 0.77 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index moved up 0.12 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.46 per cent.

On Thursday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) purchased equities worth Rs 366 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 3,326 crore.

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