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‘If rupee continues to be under pressure, RBI may look at alternate measures’

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Rahul Singh, Senior Fund Manager � Fixed Income, LIC Mutual Fund Asset Management Ltd, said that if the rupee continues to be under pressure, the RBI may look at alternate measures. The recent fall in 10-year US yield and dollar index may also have provided some respite for the time being.

Excerpts from the interview:

Q. How much repo rate hike do you expect in the upcoming monetary policy and what will be the stance?

A: We expect 35-50 bps repo rate hike in the upcoming policy. The MPC stance however may not be changed from the last policy.

Q. What will be the inflation and growth outlook by the RBI?

A: The RBI may continue to maintain that they see inflation around 6 per cent mark by Q4 FY23. Inflation has softened considerably from the levels we have seen in the 1st quarter. Further global commodity prices have corrected to a great extent which is good news considering India is a big importer, Plus, monsoon till now has been good. All this may give comfort to the RBI maintaining its Inflation level of 6 per cent by end of this fiscal year. The RBI may also be positive on their growth numbers and would at least maintain (if not revise upwards) the numbers projected in the last policy. GST numbers, credit growth and PMI numbers have been encouraging.

Q. Will the RBI continue to support rupee on the near term?

A: The RBI has always maintained that they would not want too much volatility in INR and may continue to maintain the same stance, though there might be direct intervention, our reading says they may not be too comfortable in letting reserves slip. It has come down from 650 billion to 572 billion as per latest data. If Rupee continues to be under pressure, the RBI may look at alternate measures. The recent fall in 10-year US yield and dollar index may also have provided some respite for the time being.

Q. Where you see bond yields if the RBI hikes rate in the August policy?

A: Rate hike is a certainty which the market may have factored in. The movement will play on what RBI says on their inflation forecast and how much of the impact they see on rupee movement. If the statement is like last policy with no major deviations in the projected numbers from last policy, we may see 10-year G-Sec yield falling further to 7.20 levels.

Q. Now FII’s net investment turned positive after nearly 9 months and indices are rising, do you think this trend will sustain?

A: While it is difficult to predict the future FII flows, it is fair to assume that FIIs may not wish to remain away from India for a long time. Rising domestic demand, attractive valuations and favourable macroeconomic factors may catch FIIs interest.

Q. What are your views on US Fed hinting that they are looking to slow the pace of rate hikes in the upcoming meetings?

A: If FED is convinced that Inflation is cooling down going forward, then this statement certainly makes sense. It could have originated looking at certain statistics which shows softness in crude and other commodities prices, weakening Chinese economy, Q2 GDP numbers and the talks regarding recession going ahead. However, the question remains that if PCE price index is 6.8 per cent and core PCE is 4.8 per cent, then is inflation softening going ahead?. The weak GDP numbers majorly owe to lower US government spending and higher inventories rather than indicating falling demand. Similar dovish statements were made earlier as well when there were rumours of 75 bps rate hike, however we saw two back-to-back 75 bps hike. My understanding is that as long as Inflation shows a declining trend, FED needs to be aggressive in controlling that otherwise it may unnecessarily elongate the entire hike cycle impacting the growth cycle going ahead.

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SIP inflows hit all-time high of Rs 26,632 crore in April: AMFI data

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Mumbai, May 9: India’s mutual fund industry saw a historic surge in systematic investment plan (SIP) contributions in April, with investors pouring in a record Rs 26,632 crore last month, according to data by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) released on Friday.

This marks the highest-ever SIP inflow for any month, the report said.

In April, 1.36 crore SIP accounts were either closed or matured as part of this process. However, investor interest remained strong. The number of active SIP accounts grew to 8.38 crore in April, up from 8.11 crore in March, showing that people are still keen on building long-term wealth through mutual funds.

April also saw the creation of 46 lakh new SIP accounts, higher than the 40.19 lakh new accounts opened in March.

AMFI said the spike in account closures was due to a planned clean-up and is likely to reduce sharply from May onwards.

“The sustained inflows underscore improving investor sentiment, supported by strong corporate earnings, resilient macroeconomic fundamentals, and a continued tilt towards equities as the preferred asset class,” said Himanshu Srivastava, Associate Director, Manager Research, Morningstar Investment Research India.

Notably, the absence of any major new fund launches during the month indicates that investors largely allocated capital to existing schemes — a testament to their confidence in the long-term growth prospects of Indian equity markets, he added.

The record-breaking investment came even as the industry undertook a large clean-up of inactive accounts.

Despite a slight dip in inflows into equity mutual funds, the overall mutual fund industry continued to grow rapidly.

Total assets under management (AUM) reached an all-time high of Rs 70 lakh crore in April.

This is a big jump from Rs 65.74 lakh crore recorded in March — showing strong investor confidence in the market.

Large-cap mutual funds, which had faced outflows in recent months, bounced back with net inflows of Rs 2,671.46 crore in April.

This was a slight increase from Rs 2,479.31 crore in March. According to the report, this suggest that investors are regaining interest in these relatively stable funds.

Mid-cap funds attracted Rs 3,313 crore during the month, a minor drop from Rs 3,438.87 crore in March.

Meanwhile, small-cap funds continued to perform steadily, drawing Rs 3,999.95 crore in April, only slightly lower than the Rs 4,092 crore they received the month before.

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Business

India, Chile make progress on comprehensive economic partnership agreement

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New Delhi, May 9: India and Chile have signed the terms of reference (ToR) for a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA), marking a significant advancement in their bilateral trade relations, the government said on Friday.

The mutually-agreed ToR were signed by Juan Angulo, Ambassador of Chile in India and Vimal Anand, Joint Secretary in Department of Commerce, who is also the Chief Negotiator for India-Chile CEPA from the Indian side.

Both sides reiterated their shared vision for strengthening bilateral relations and look forward to fruitful discussion during the first round scheduled in the national capital from May 26-30.

According to the Commerce Ministry, the CEPA aims to build upon the existing PTA (preferential trade agreement) between the two nations and seeks to encompass a broader range of sectors, including digital services, investment promotion and cooperation, MSME and critical minerals, etc. thereby enhancing economic integration and cooperation.

India and Chile are strategic partners and close allies, sharing warm and cordial relations.

Bilateral ties have steadily strengthened over the years with the exchange of high-level visits. A Framework Agreement on Economic Cooperation was signed between the two countries in January, 2005, followed by PTA in March, 2006.

Since then, economic and commercial relations between India and Chile have remained robust and continue to grow.

According to the ministry, an expanded PTA was subsequently signed in September 2016 and became effective from May 16, 2017.

In April 2019, both countries agreed to pursue a further expansion of the PTA with three rounds of negotiations between the years during 2019-2021. To deepen their economic engagement, both sides expressed their intention to negotiate a CEPA to unlock the full potential of their trade and commercial relationship, boosting employment, facilitating investment promotion, and cooperation and exports, as suggested by the Joint Study Group established under the Framework Agreement.

The JSG report was finalised and signed on April 30, 2024.

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Pakistan stock markets continue to bleed, down 14 pc since Pahalgam attack

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New Delhi, May 8: The stock markets in Pakistan further tanked on Thursday, as trading was halted at the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) amid rising geopolitical tensions.

Karachi Stock Exchange fell more than 6 per cent on Thursday before the trading was halted. The stock exchange has been witnessing a continuous decline since the barbaric Pahalgam terror attack.

The main index, Karachi Stock Exchange 100 Index (KSE-100), has slipped by more than 13 per cent since April 22 when the terror attack happened, killing 26 people, most of them tourists.

On April 22, the KSE-100 index was at 1,18,430, which has now dropped to 1,03,060.

Apart from this, another Pakistani stock index, KSE-30, has also fallen more than 14 per cent since April 22.

Amid the grim state of the stock markets, Pakistan has only $15 billion of foreign exchange reserves left and is on the verge of economic collapse.

The country is seeking a fresh loan worth $1.3 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to run its economy.

Pakistan’s economy, in the initial years after independence, grew at the same pace as India’s, backed by US aid and donations from the oil-rich Islamic nations.

However, while democratic India kept its focus on economic development and lifting its masses out of poverty, Pakistan has been rocked by bloody coups and military dictatorships, with the army Generals still calling the shots and fuelling hostility against its more prosperous neighbour.

Pakistan was on the brink of sovereign default in 2023 and had to be bailed out by a $3 billion IMF loan.

The country is still critically dependent on this financial lifeline and is desperately trying to raise another $1.3 billion climate resilience loan.

Overall, the neighbouring nation now faces an economic freefall – crippled by political chaos and the long-term cost of harbouring terrorism.

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