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High commodity prices continue to weigh on trade deficit, estimate for FY23 at $90bn: Acuite

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The expectation of the expansion of the current account deficit is not just driven by elevated global commodity prices, but is also linked to the unlocking of the economy reviving pent-up demand and improved vaccination cover aiding an organic recovery in the economy, ratings and research firm Acuite Ratings & Research said in a report.

Nevertheless, there is considerable uncertainty in projecting trade and current account deficit due to high volatility in commodity prices, which in the current environment is taking cues from unpredictable geopolitical events.

“Given, the relentless rise in commodity prices particularly crude oil which has again risen to $120 per barrel, we project current account deficit (CAD) to widen to more than $90 billion (in FY23) from an estimated $47 billion in FY22,” the report said.

India’s merchandise trade deficit widened to a record high level of $23.3 billion in May 2022 from a deficit of $20.1 billion in April, the report said citing the Ministry of Commerce and Industry’s preliminary data.

On the other hand, imports increased slightly to $60.6 billion in May from $60.3 billion in the previous month, given the rising crude oil bill.

Notably, India’s share of oil imports from Russia has increased from 2 per cent to nearly 25 per cent since the onslaught of the geopolitical crisis, with India taking advantage of competitive pricing with an aim to fulfil its heavy oil needs, it said.

“On the exports front, the moderation was driven by non-oil exports while oil exports eased a tad in May-22. On a sectoral basis, commodities such as petroleum products, electronic goods, chemicals, and engineering goods remained strong in May-22.”

The report further said that the evolving global geopolitical dynamics, and policy support through targeted incentive structures like the production-linked incentive schemes and strategic trade partnerships (such as India-Australia trade agreement, and India-UAE trade pact) would also continue to support exports, besides the inorganic expansion via price effect.

That said, some normalisation in growth is likely in the coming quarters on deceleration in global demand, the report added.

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New initiative aims to strengthen India’s homegrown cyber resilience

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New Delhi, Nov 25: The government has launched a landmark Cyber Security Innovation Challenge (CSIC) 1.0 for students and researchers to work upon real-world cyber challenges, positioning the field as a viable career path and strengthens India’s homegrown cyber resilience.

The initiative, launched under the Information Security Education and Awareness (ISEA) project of MeitY, aims to building not only skilled professionals and positioning cyber security as a viable career path, but also catalysing homegrown, product-oriented solutions.

S. Krishnan, IT Secretary, emphasised the need for a two-pronged national cyber security strategy — expanding awareness of emerging threats while strengthening technological capabilities. He highlighted that CSIC 1.0 addresses both imperatives.

Krishnan said that cyber security demands a ‘whole-of-nation’ approach, echoing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision of a ‘whole-of-government’ strategy.

Acknowledging the collaborative presence of MeitY, CERT-In, NSCS, AICTE, C-DAC, DSCI, and leaders from academia and industry, he stressed the importance of nurturing winning ideas beyond the Minimum Viable Product (MVP) stage, creating pathways for them to evolve into scalable solutions through collaboration with startups and industry partners.

Vinayak Godse, CEO, Data Security Council of India, provided an engaging walkthrough of CSIC 1.0’s five-stage structure and extensive problem statements, developed through months of intense deliberation between DSCI, C-DAC, and the ISEA team.

He highlighted that this first-of-its-kind initiative enables students and researchers to innovate and develop entrepreneurial mindsets from the early stages.

Professor V Kamakoti, Director IIT Madras, mentioned that the innovation challenge under ISEA Project highlights our enhanced understanding of core challenges and positions us to craft transformative solutions.

The 10 domain specific problem statements highlight areas which are aligned to the cyber security needs of the nation and require fresh, innovative thinking.

Dr Sanjay Bahl, Director General, CERT-In, highlighted ISEA’s critical role in fostering innovation that shifts the paradigm from reactive defense to proactive security.

He noted that the Innovation Challenge creates a vital platform uniting R&D, academia, and industry, with solutions from academic institutions envisioned to reach the market as deployable products.

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Gold prices slide 1 pc on MCX as Fed Rate cut hopes fade

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Mumbai, Nov 24: Gold prices fell sharply on Monday as weak chances of a US Federal Reserve rate cut and easing geopolitical tensions weighed on investor sentiment.

A stronger US dollar also added pressure on the precious metal.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold December futures dropped 1 per cent to Rs 1,22,950 per 10 grams.

Silver followed the trend, with December futures falling 0.61 per cent to Rs 1,53,209 per kg in early trade.

“In INR gold has support at Rs1,23,450-1,22,480 while resistance at Rs1,24,750-1,25,500,” analysts said.

“Silver has support at Rs1,53,050-1,52,350 while resistance at Rs1,55,140, 1,55,980,” they added.

Analysts said gold currently lacks any strong positive trigger to maintain its previous gains.

The latest US job market data reduced expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which has been a key reason behind the correction in prices.

The strong economic data pushed the US dollar index to nearly a six-month high on Friday.

The index remained above the 100 level on Monday, making gold more expensive for buyers holding other currencies and restricting demand.

Geopolitical concerns have also eased in recent days, further reducing gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Experts believe the combination of a stronger dollar, uncertainty over US tariff decisions, developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the upcoming Fed policy announcement may keep gold prices volatile in the near term.

Some market analysts expect further correction and advise investors to stay cautious before making fresh purchases.

Gold is attempting to reclaim momentum as prices hover near $4,100, driven by growing expectations of a December Fed rate cut, now priced at 71 per cent probability after dovish hints from officials like Miran and Williams.

“Bullion has been choppy over the past three sessions, reflecting traders’ indecision, but with rate-cut bets rising and geopolitical risks lingering, dips in gold are likely to attract renewed buying interest in the coming week with next resistance seen around 125000 and support near 122000,” experts added.

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New labour codes to boost formalisation, gender parity of India’s workforce: Industry leaders

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New Delhi, Nov 22: India’s top industry bodies and staffing leaders on Saturday labelled the implementation of the Four Labour Codes a landmark step toward formalising the workforce, expanding social security, and aligning India’s labour framework with global standards.

The India Electronics & Semiconductor Association (IESA) said the reforms would significantly benefit the high-technology sectors by enhancing workforce stability, improving safety standards, and enabling labour flexibility with social protection.

“Mandatory appointment letters, universal minimum wages, and pan-India social security coverage (including ESIC expansion) ensure greater formalisation. This strengthens worker confidence — critical for skill-intensive manufacturing such as fabs, ATMP, component manufacturing and design centres,” said Ashok Chandak, President, IESA and SEMI India.

Provisions for fixed-term employment, faster dispute resolution, single licensing, and simplified compliance directly support the scaling of high-tech manufacturing clusters, the statement said.

Meanwhile, parity of benefits for Fixed-Term Employees (FTE) and expanded social security protections ensure a balanced, worker-centric ecosystem, he added.

Sachin Alug, CEO of NLB Services, a technology and digital talent provider, said the reforms were long overdue for India’s gig economy and will offer protection to a fast-growing but previously unorganised workforce.

The new laws are also expected to promote gender parity in the workforce by opening doors to wider opportunities across diverse sectors. Additionally, other groups such as”

He also pointed out that new laws will promote gender parity and contract workers, youth workers, and fixed-term employees will benefit from clearer working-hour norms, expanded social security, minimum wage protections, and health benefits.

“By simplifying compliance and unifying the regulatory framework, the codes can significantly expand formal employment, bringing millions of workers, especially in industries that rely on contract, temporary, and project-based roles, into the fold of structured, protected work,” said Balasubramanian A, Senior Vice President, TeamLease Services.

“National floor minimum wage creates a consistent benchmark across states and is an important step in India’s evolution from a minimum-wage economy to a living-wage economy,” he noted.

Suchita Dutta, Executive Director of Indian Staffing Federation (ISF), said the codes simplify compliance for employers, reduce regulatory burdens, and foster a more flexible hiring environment — crucial for the staffing industry, which has long advocated for such changes to unlock formal job creation.

The government, on November 21, implemented the Four Labour Codes — the Code on Wages (2019), Industrial Relations Code (2020), Code on Social Security (2020), and Occupational Safety, Health and Working Conditions (OSHWC) Code (2020) — repealing and rationalising 29 existing central labour laws.

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