Crime
Have Big Powers pushed Ukraine to Disaster?
Russia has declared war on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and is executing a plan meticulously prepared and war-games. NATO appears to have over-relied on the potency of its sanctions to deter Putin, which appears to be a major strategic error because it has not worked in the past and does not appear to be working now. Instead, it has emboldened Russian leadership’s resolve that NATO will be unable to respond to a quick offensive beyond condemnation, Ukraine’s capacity building, and sanctions on Russia.
It has pushed Ukraine to disaster, as its President’s loud demand to join NATO was neither acted upon by West, nor provided him any assurance that anyone else would do the heavy lifting or put boots on the ground in Ukraine to fight Russians, despite a massive military force imbalance in Russia’s favour.
Decoding Strategic and Military Action of Russia so far
The contours and logic of Russian plans were evident from its posturing over months, President Putin’s speeches to the nation and his demands made to Ukraine. The political aim of Russia seems to be to target Ukraine’s leadershipto give up demand of NATO membership, or else force a regime change, replacingit with a pro-Russian government not propagating NATO membership/agenda.
Strategically, the centre of gravity for the Russian offensive is the minds of Ukraine’s leadership and military to surrender to Russia with minimum militaryactions. This strategic goal cannot be realised without surrounding Kyiv, which is the key strategic objective; as a result, operations to encircle Kyiv and capture adjacent airbases have been launched. After Russia recognised the independence of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic, the liberation of the Donbas region was a foregone conclusion.
The military aim is to demilitarise Ukrainian military to ensure that Ukraine cannot be used as a springboard by NATO to threaten the security of Russia and isolate Kyiv to facilitate regime change without military interference. To shape the battlefield, Russian military postured three sides of Ukraine with massive combat superiority, used forces in Belarus to invade from the North to reach Kyiv via shortest route, used its Black Sea fleet and Crimea to blockade Ukraine from South, and forces in Donbas region to invade from east and some forces from northeast to expedite consolidation.
The military operations were preceded by cyber-attacks and information warfare. Military operations were launched in a well-planned and professional manner under the banner of ‘Special Operations,’ beginning with air and missile strikes to neutralise air defence capability, air assets to achieve air superiority, and pulverise military targets, claiming to have destroyed over 70 military targets and installations, including 11 airfields in Ukraine, before ground elements marched in, adding conventional superiority to upgrade its hybrid war.
NATO’s Response and Future Options
President Biden’s address on February 22, and statements of other western leaders, clearly indicated that NATO is not going to have boots on ground in Ukraine and will depend on financial sanctions and material support to Ukraine as response to Russian aggression.
This weakness emboldened Russia to seize opportunity for offensive into Ukraine with minimum military cost, so far. NATO is still unclear about further responses, as the Russian offensive is already underway; hence time for any possible military action by NATO is already over. NATO, therefore is only salvaging its own security by strengthening NATO countries bordering Ukraine/Russia to prevent any possibility of Russian adventurism into any of the NATO countries, leaving Ukraine to its fate, as it’s not a member of NATO as yet.
Likely Russian Action Ahead
Russia will try to achieve its strategic objectives as fast as possible and move out of Ukraine to minimise its cost. It will avoid fighting in built up areas, as it will prolong the invasion and may not remain as an occupational force to avoid backlash from a segment of hostile population turning into insurgency against it.
It will therefore try to maximise pressure on Ukraine by all instruments of power to submit to regime change or force it at the earliest and de-escalate. Notwithstanding what Russia wants, the resolve of Ukrainian military and leadership will determine the timeframe and escalation dynamics and the support of NATO to refuel resistance will determine the staying power. Russia is unlikely to make the mistake of annexing Ukraine, as it does not make sense in strategic cost benefit analysis. To build pressure for Ukraine to surrender, Russia may also take over some key strategic installations, till its strategic aims are achieved. It’s a harsh punishment for Ukraine’s uncomfortable geopolitical location and leadership’s desire to join NATO, which has thrust it into the centre of a “Big Power Contestation” that is going to be a tragedy for its people, in all contingencies.
Indian Response
The first priority for India should be to evacuate its own students and diaspora.It can push for diplomatic solutions and peaceful resolutions, as well as measures to reduce temperatures, but it should avoid taking sides because it has good connections with all of the opposing powers. While each country’s sovereignty must be maintained, both sides have rejected it when it has served their interests, as in the Iraq war, Crimea and Afghanistan.
India needs to factor the weak western response to Ukraine crisis in its strategic calculations, as it can embolden other authoritative powers like China to take similar actions in Indo-Pacific region.
(Major General S.B. Asthana is a strategic and security analyst, a veteran Infantry General. He is the Chief Instructor, United Service Institution of India. The views expressed are personal)
Crime
NCB crackdown forces Myanmar drug cartels into forests and river routes

New Delhi, July 23: The Guwahati and Imphal zonal units of the Narcotics Control Bureau (NCB) have stepped up operations against narcotics cartels operating out of Myanmar.
India is battling narcotics smuggling on multiple fronts, with drug cartels operating out of Myanmar emerging as a major security concern. While the Guwahati and Imphal zonal units of the NCB have made several major seizures in 2025 and 2026, enforcement agencies have observed a shift in the smuggling methods and operational patterns adopted by these networks.
As law enforcement agencies tighten the noose around drug cartels operating between Myanmar and India, the traditional routes used to smuggle narcotics have begun to change.
An official said the cartels primarily smuggle heroin and methamphetamine into India. “Earlier, when surveillance and scrutiny were less stringent, traffickers used conventional routes and operated with relative ease. However, they have now shifted to dense forests and riverine stretches to evade detection,” the official said.
While enforcement agencies are working to dismantle these smuggling routes, the task remains challenging because of the difficult terrain along the India-Myanmar border. According to officials, traffickers typically move consignments under the cover of darkness, making detection far more difficult. They also exploit adverse weather conditions, including heavy rain, knowing that surveillance and movement by security personnel are often affected during such periods, an official said.
An Intelligence Bureau official said that the supply chain is a complex one. Multiple layers are involved, which makes detection and investigation tricky. These Myanmar-based cartels have their supply chains leading to Assam and Manipur.
After the drugs originate from Myanmar, they get passed on to the cross-border couriers. “These traffickers are assisted by the transport coordinators, following which it reaches the local facilitators, who then get in touch with the receivers of the consignment, who then supply it into the market,” the IB official said.
Further, there is another chain which involves the finances. Those who handle the illicit finances are random people who are not usually under the radar of any agency. Their job is to collect the money from the consignment receivers and then route it back to the cartels using several illicit channels.
“As compared to the narcotic smuggling that one witnesses along the India-Pakistan border in Punjab, this one is a much more complex one,” said an official.
In Punjab, Pakistan-based smugglers now rely largely on drones to drop contraband across the border, reflecting a more technology-driven method of trafficking. In contrast, drug cartels operating out of Myanmar continue to depend primarily on human couriers and traditional smuggling networks, with comparatively limited use of technology.
Another official said that the use of such complex terrains and networks makes the job of the agencies much harder. Multiple layers need to be monitored, and since it is a well-oiled mechanism, it would take some time before a complete crackdown takes place, the official also explained.
The recent arrest of Nengzatuan, alias Tuanpi, a resident of Haichin in Myanmar’s Chin State, has given a significant boost to the NCB’s operations. Wanted in multiple narcotics cases, Tuanpi was arrested in Manipur. Investigators believe his interrogation will provide valuable insights into the logistics network used by Myanmar-based drug cartels and help agencies dismantle their supply chain.
The arrested person is not a small-time operative, and he was one of the main international suppliers, who was operating out of Chin State. His questioning is crucial, and the details he would provide to the NCB will help the agency break down the supply chains from Myanmar into India better.
An official said Tuanpi is expected to provide crucial information on the smuggling routes and logistics network used by the cartels. The intelligence gathered from his interrogation is likely to strengthen efforts to curb the flow of narcotics into India and also shed light on how drugs trafficked into the country are subsequently routed to international markets, the official added.
Crime
Father, grandfather held for killing 2-month-old girl, burying body in forest in Bengal

Kolkata, July 23: A father and grandfather have been arrested in West Bengal’s North 24 Parganas district for allegedly killing a two-month-old girl and burying her in a forested area, police said on Thursday.
The incident was reported from the Jagatdal area, where the infant’s body was later exhumed and sent for post-mortem examination at Barrackpore Sub-Divisional Hospital.
According to police, the accused have been identified as Apurba Banerjee, the child’s father, and Vikas Banerjee, her grandfather. Investigators said the family had allegedly been expecting a male child and were unhappy after the birth of a second daughter. They did not even visit the hospital to see the mother and the child.
Police said the infant, who was around two months old, had reportedly been unwell for the past few days. However, on Wednesday, allegations surfaced that the child had been killed and secretly buried in a nearby forest area.
Following a complaint and protests by local residents, police reached the spot and took the two accused to the location where the body had allegedly been buried. Acting on information provided by them, officers exhumed the body and sent it for autopsy. Both men were subsequently arrested and booked under relevant sections of law.
Local residents expressed suspicion over the circumstances surrounding the child’s death. One neighbour told local media that while the family claimed the infant had died naturally, questions were raised over the hurried burial without informing neighbours or authorities.
Neighbour Chandrani Mondal said, “In the morning, we received news that the baby girl was killed and buried in the ground by her father and grandfather. We went to find out about the matter. But they told us that the baby girl died naturally. If that is what happened, why did the family members bury her in the ground so quickly without informing anyone? We want the police to investigate the incident.”
Sampati Banerjee, the mother of the deceased baby girl, said, “My daughter was sick for two or three days. When I woke up this morning, I saw that her body was cold. She was not breathing. I wanted to take my daughter to the hospital. But my husband and father-in-law did not agree. They quickly took the dead girl from my lap and buried her in the forest next to the house.”
Police said the exact cause of death would be determined after the post-mortem report is received, and further investigation is underway.
Crime
CBI finds no evidence linking Sanjeev Mukhiya to NEET-UG 2024 paper theft case

New Delhi, July 23: The Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), which probed the NEET (UG) 2024 question paper theft case, has said it found no evidence to establish the involvement of Sanjeev Kumar, alias Sanjeev Mukhiya, in the crime.
After conducting a detailed investigation, the agency said it had identified the entire conspiracy and all those involved.
“Sanjeev Mukhiya had remained absconding during the relevant period and was subsequently arrested by Bihar Police in connection with other cases. Since he was a named accused in the FIR registered in the NEET-UG 2024 case, the CBI took him into police custody for examination in the matter,” the agency said in a statement.
“However, no evidence of his involvement in the NEET-UG 2024 case emerged during the investigation. Consequently, the CBI did not file any charge sheet against him in the case, and he subsequently secured bail,” it added.
The agency clarified that Mukhiya continued to remain in judicial custody even after obtaining bail in the CBI case, as he is an accused in other cases being investigated by Bihar Police.
The CBI said it had carried out a comprehensive investigation into the NEET (UG) 2024 paper theft case, identified all individuals involved, and ensured that none escaped the legal process.
The case was initially registered by Bihar Police after detecting the theft of the NEET (UG) 2024 examination question paper. At the preliminary stage, suspicion had arisen regarding Mukhiya’s possible involvement because of his alleged links to other examination paper leak cases. He was, therefore, named as an accused in the FIR.
The investigation was later transferred to the CBI.
According to the agency, the probe identified every individual involved in the theft and subsequent distribution of the stolen question paper, as well as all candidates who benefited from its use.
The CBI has filed multiple charge sheets against 45 accused before the competent court in Patna.
The agency further said that the position regarding Mukhiya’s role had already been clarified in 2024 and asserted that the current narrative suggesting his deliberate omission from the case was “factually incorrect”.
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