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Have Big Powers pushed Ukraine to Disaster?

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Russia has declared war on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and is executing a plan meticulously prepared and war-games. NATO appears to have over-relied on the potency of its sanctions to deter Putin, which appears to be a major strategic error because it has not worked in the past and does not appear to be working now. Instead, it has emboldened Russian leadership’s resolve that NATO will be unable to respond to a quick offensive beyond condemnation, Ukraine’s capacity building, and sanctions on Russia.

It has pushed Ukraine to disaster, as its President’s loud demand to join NATO was neither acted upon by West, nor provided him any assurance that anyone else would do the heavy lifting or put boots on the ground in Ukraine to fight Russians, despite a massive military force imbalance in Russia’s favour.

Decoding Strategic and Military Action of Russia so far

The contours and logic of Russian plans were evident from its posturing over months, President Putin’s speeches to the nation and his demands made to Ukraine. The political aim of Russia seems to be to target Ukraine’s leadershipto give up demand of NATO membership, or else force a regime change, replacingit with a pro-Russian government not propagating NATO membership/agenda.

Strategically, the centre of gravity for the Russian offensive is the minds of Ukraine’s leadership and military to surrender to Russia with minimum militaryactions. This strategic goal cannot be realised without surrounding Kyiv, which is the key strategic objective; as a result, operations to encircle Kyiv and capture adjacent airbases have been launched. After Russia recognised the independence of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic, the liberation of the Donbas region was a foregone conclusion.

The military aim is to demilitarise Ukrainian military to ensure that Ukraine cannot be used as a springboard by NATO to threaten the security of Russia and isolate Kyiv to facilitate regime change without military interference. To shape the battlefield, Russian military postured three sides of Ukraine with massive combat superiority, used forces in Belarus to invade from the North to reach Kyiv via shortest route, used its Black Sea fleet and Crimea to blockade Ukraine from South, and forces in Donbas region to invade from east and some forces from northeast to expedite consolidation.

The military operations were preceded by cyber-attacks and information warfare. Military operations were launched in a well-planned and professional manner under the banner of ‘Special Operations,’ beginning with air and missile strikes to neutralise air defence capability, air assets to achieve air superiority, and pulverise military targets, claiming to have destroyed over 70 military targets and installations, including 11 airfields in Ukraine, before ground elements marched in, adding conventional superiority to upgrade its hybrid war.

NATO’s Response and Future Options

President Biden’s address on February 22, and statements of other western leaders, clearly indicated that NATO is not going to have boots on ground in Ukraine and will depend on financial sanctions and material support to Ukraine as response to Russian aggression.

This weakness emboldened Russia to seize opportunity for offensive into Ukraine with minimum military cost, so far. NATO is still unclear about further responses, as the Russian offensive is already underway; hence time for any possible military action by NATO is already over. NATO, therefore is only salvaging its own security by strengthening NATO countries bordering Ukraine/Russia to prevent any possibility of Russian adventurism into any of the NATO countries, leaving Ukraine to its fate, as it’s not a member of NATO as yet.

Likely Russian Action Ahead

Russia will try to achieve its strategic objectives as fast as possible and move out of Ukraine to minimise its cost. It will avoid fighting in built up areas, as it will prolong the invasion and may not remain as an occupational force to avoid backlash from a segment of hostile population turning into insurgency against it.

It will therefore try to maximise pressure on Ukraine by all instruments of power to submit to regime change or force it at the earliest and de-escalate. Notwithstanding what Russia wants, the resolve of Ukrainian military and leadership will determine the timeframe and escalation dynamics and the support of NATO to refuel resistance will determine the staying power. Russia is unlikely to make the mistake of annexing Ukraine, as it does not make sense in strategic cost benefit analysis. To build pressure for Ukraine to surrender, Russia may also take over some key strategic installations, till its strategic aims are achieved. It’s a harsh punishment for Ukraine’s uncomfortable geopolitical location and leadership’s desire to join NATO, which has thrust it into the centre of a “Big Power Contestation” that is going to be a tragedy for its people, in all contingencies.

Indian Response

The first priority for India should be to evacuate its own students and diaspora.It can push for diplomatic solutions and peaceful resolutions, as well as measures to reduce temperatures, but it should avoid taking sides because it has good connections with all of the opposing powers. While each country’s sovereignty must be maintained, both sides have rejected it when it has served their interests, as in the Iraq war, Crimea and Afghanistan.

India needs to factor the weak western response to Ukraine crisis in its strategic calculations, as it can embolden other authoritative powers like China to take similar actions in Indo-Pacific region.

(Major General S.B. Asthana is a strategic and security analyst, a veteran Infantry General. He is the Chief Instructor, United Service Institution of India. The views expressed are personal)

Crime

Maha: ED files charge sheet in Sai Group case

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Mumbai, Aug 13: The Directorate of Enforcement (ED), Mumbai Zonal Office, has filed a charge sheet under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA), 2002, against Jayesh Vinod Tanna, Deep Vinod Tanna, Vivek Jayesh Tanna and seven entities of the Sai Group.

According to a press release, the charge sheet was submitted before the Special Court (PMLA), Mumbai, after extensive investigations into alleged financial irregularities tied to redevelopment projects across the Mumbai Metropolitan Region.

The case traces back to 2024, when Mumbai Police registered multiple FIRs under the Indian Penal Code (IPC) and the Maharashtra Ownership Flats Act (MOFA), 1963.

The ED’s probe revealed that the promoters of Sai Group diverted funds collected from flat and shop buyers in several redevelopment projects. Instead of channelling the money into construction, the funds were allegedly siphoned off, leaving buyers and investors in distress, the agency said.

According to the findings, the diversion of funds amounted to Rs 43.73 crore, affecting projects in DN Nagar, Andheri, Kandivali and Goregaon. The promoters are accused of misleading buyers, failing to deliver promised housing units and breaching financial trust.

To secure the proceeds of crime, the ED has attached assets worth Rs 43.73 crore under Section 5 of the PMLA. These include properties in Mumbai and Ahmednagar, as well as overseas holdings in the United Kingdom, it said.

The filing of the charge sheet highlights the ED’s intensified scrutiny of real estate‑linked money laundering cases, which have become increasingly common due to misuse of redevelopment funds. The agency emphasised that such fraudulent practices not only undermine the housing sector but also erode public confidence in redevelopment projects.

With the charge sheet now before the Special Court, the matter will proceed to trial, where evidence presented by the ED will be examined to determine the culpability of the accused individuals and entities.

This marks a significant step in the broader crackdown on financial crimes in the real estate sector, reinforcing the government’s stand to protect homebuyers and investors from exploitation.

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Crime

FIR against 600 protesters for violence during Assembly ‘gherao’ in Ranchi

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Ranchi, Aug 13: Jharkhand Police have registered an FIR against 600 protesters who were allegedly part of unrest and violence that erupted during the Assembly gherao in Ranchi on August 10, officials said on Thursday.

Of these, 100 individuals have been named as accused, while 500 unidentified protesters have also been booked.

According to the FIR lodged at the Assembly Police Station, the accused have been charged with breaking police barricades erected as part of security arrangements, manhandling and misbehaving with police personnel, obstructing government work, and pelting stones at security forces during the protest.

Police said a large number of students and other protesters had gathered for the Assembly gherao. While nearly 90 per cent of the participants were peaceful, officials claimed that about 10 per cent turned aggressive and escalated the situation.

The police also alleged that some outsiders arrived at the protest site in vehicles and attempted to intensify the disturbances.

The clashes and stone-pelting reportedly left more than 14 police and security personnel injured. To bring the situation under control, the police fired tear gas shells, used water cannons, and carried out a lathi charge.

Authorities are now working to identify the unnamed accused. Investigators are examining video footage from the protest site, CCTV recordings, and drone camera footage.

Police officials said facial recognition and artificial intelligence-based technologies may also be used, if required, to identify those involved in the violence.

The students have been agitating over alleged irregularities and paper leaks in various recruitment examinations conducted by the Jharkhand Public Service Commission (JPSC) and the Jharkhand Staff Selection Commission (JSSC) for the last 20 days.

Among their key demands is a CBI probe into the alleged examination irregularities. The Assembly gherao on August 10 was organised as part of this ongoing agitation.

Meanwhile, the Ranchi district administration has beefed up security in anticipation of the next phase of the ongoing student protest.

Agitating students are preparing to lay siege to the Chief Minister’s residence on August 20, though no formal announcement has been made.

More than 100 additional armed personnel have been deployed for the CM’s security, including personnel from the Jharkhand Jaguar and the Jharkhand Armed Police.

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Crime

Fake RTO e-challan case: Gujarat Police nab Jamtara gang aide handling fraud proceeds

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Surat, Aug 13: The Surat City Cyber Crime Cell in Gujarat has arrested an alleged associate of a Jamtara-based cyber fraud gang who, according to police, handled money siphoned from victims through mule bank accounts and converted the proceeds into cash before routing them back to other members of the network.

The accused, identified as 26-year-old Sitaram Mandal, a welding shop worker from Bisanpur village in Giridih district of Jharkhand, was taken into custody from Sabarmati Jail in Ahmedabad, where he was already lodged.

He was subsequently produced before a court and police obtained his two-day custody remand.

The arrest followed an investigation into a complaint in which a Surat resident’s son allegedly lost Rs 5,02,562 after downloading a fake RTO E-Challan APK file sent through WhatsApp.

Police said the incident began on November 20, 2025, when an unknown WhatsApp number sent the malicious APK file to the phone of the victim’s friend, Rakesh Sharma.

The compromised account was then used to circulate the file in a WhatsApp group involving the victim’s son’s friends.

After the victim downloaded the file, his phone was allegedly compromised without his knowledge, and Rs 5,02,562 was transferred from his bank account in multiple transactions.

The complainant contacted the national cybercrime helpline immediately after discovering the fraud and later approached the Surat Cyber Crime Cell on December 14, 2025.

A case was registered at the Cyber Crime Police Station under Sections 318(4), 336(2), 338, 336(3), 340(2), 61(2) and 3(5) of the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita, 2023, and Sections 66(C) and 66(D) of the Information Technology Act, 2008.

Police said a technical investigation, including scrutiny of banking transactions, led them to Mandal, who was found to be in Sabarmati Jail.

Investigators alleged that Rs 1,47,954 from the complainant’s son’s account had been used for a credit bill payment arranged through an earlier arrested accused, Nishit Nathwani.

According to police, Nathwani retained a commission of 15 to 20 per cent and deposited the remaining cash through a cash deposit machine into Mandal’s bank account.

Mandal allegedly deducted a further 5 to 10 per cent commission before handing over the remaining cash to absconding members of the Jamtara gang in Jharkhand.

Police also found that Rs 2.72 lakh linked to cyber fraud involving this and other victims had been deposited through CDM transactions into Mandal’s Axis Bank account between November 21 and December 18, 2025.

The account recorded credit transactions totalling Rs 15,87,400 between September 19, 2025 and January 8, 2026. Police said Mandal has a previous criminal record, including an FIR registered in Giridih district in 2017 under cheating, forgery and Information Technology Act provisions.

He is also named in five Ahmedabad City Cyber Crime Police Station cases registered in 2026 involving cheating, impersonation, conspiracy and offences under the IT Act.

The investigation has found that the gang used malicious APK files designed to resemble legitimate applications or services.

According to police, once a victim clicked on and installed the file, the application sought administrative permissions that could allow access to SMS messages, contacts, call logs and photographs.

The gang allegedly used genuine-looking bank names, logos and icons to persuade victims to enter banking and KYC information.

Once access to banking details was obtained, money was transferred from the victim’s bank or payment applications to mule accounts or credit cards.

The proceeds were subsequently withdrawn or converted into cash and deposited through CDMs into accounts controlled by other members of the network, according to investigators.

Police said five accused had already been arrested in connection with the case before Mandal’s arrest.

The Cyber Crime Cell has urged people not to download APK files received from unknown sources, even when they appear to relate to RTO challans, banks, KYC updates, customer support, government schemes, appointment bookings or other familiar services.

It also advised people not to click on suspicious links received through SMS or email.

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