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Have Big Powers pushed Ukraine to Disaster?

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Russia has declared war on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and is executing a plan meticulously prepared and war-games. NATO appears to have over-relied on the potency of its sanctions to deter Putin, which appears to be a major strategic error because it has not worked in the past and does not appear to be working now. Instead, it has emboldened Russian leadership’s resolve that NATO will be unable to respond to a quick offensive beyond condemnation, Ukraine’s capacity building, and sanctions on Russia.

It has pushed Ukraine to disaster, as its President’s loud demand to join NATO was neither acted upon by West, nor provided him any assurance that anyone else would do the heavy lifting or put boots on the ground in Ukraine to fight Russians, despite a massive military force imbalance in Russia’s favour.

Decoding Strategic and Military Action of Russia so far

The contours and logic of Russian plans were evident from its posturing over months, President Putin’s speeches to the nation and his demands made to Ukraine. The political aim of Russia seems to be to target Ukraine’s leadershipto give up demand of NATO membership, or else force a regime change, replacingit with a pro-Russian government not propagating NATO membership/agenda.

Strategically, the centre of gravity for the Russian offensive is the minds of Ukraine’s leadership and military to surrender to Russia with minimum militaryactions. This strategic goal cannot be realised without surrounding Kyiv, which is the key strategic objective; as a result, operations to encircle Kyiv and capture adjacent airbases have been launched. After Russia recognised the independence of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic, the liberation of the Donbas region was a foregone conclusion.

The military aim is to demilitarise Ukrainian military to ensure that Ukraine cannot be used as a springboard by NATO to threaten the security of Russia and isolate Kyiv to facilitate regime change without military interference. To shape the battlefield, Russian military postured three sides of Ukraine with massive combat superiority, used forces in Belarus to invade from the North to reach Kyiv via shortest route, used its Black Sea fleet and Crimea to blockade Ukraine from South, and forces in Donbas region to invade from east and some forces from northeast to expedite consolidation.

The military operations were preceded by cyber-attacks and information warfare. Military operations were launched in a well-planned and professional manner under the banner of ‘Special Operations,’ beginning with air and missile strikes to neutralise air defence capability, air assets to achieve air superiority, and pulverise military targets, claiming to have destroyed over 70 military targets and installations, including 11 airfields in Ukraine, before ground elements marched in, adding conventional superiority to upgrade its hybrid war.

NATO’s Response and Future Options

President Biden’s address on February 22, and statements of other western leaders, clearly indicated that NATO is not going to have boots on ground in Ukraine and will depend on financial sanctions and material support to Ukraine as response to Russian aggression.

This weakness emboldened Russia to seize opportunity for offensive into Ukraine with minimum military cost, so far. NATO is still unclear about further responses, as the Russian offensive is already underway; hence time for any possible military action by NATO is already over. NATO, therefore is only salvaging its own security by strengthening NATO countries bordering Ukraine/Russia to prevent any possibility of Russian adventurism into any of the NATO countries, leaving Ukraine to its fate, as it’s not a member of NATO as yet.

Likely Russian Action Ahead

Russia will try to achieve its strategic objectives as fast as possible and move out of Ukraine to minimise its cost. It will avoid fighting in built up areas, as it will prolong the invasion and may not remain as an occupational force to avoid backlash from a segment of hostile population turning into insurgency against it.

It will therefore try to maximise pressure on Ukraine by all instruments of power to submit to regime change or force it at the earliest and de-escalate. Notwithstanding what Russia wants, the resolve of Ukrainian military and leadership will determine the timeframe and escalation dynamics and the support of NATO to refuel resistance will determine the staying power. Russia is unlikely to make the mistake of annexing Ukraine, as it does not make sense in strategic cost benefit analysis. To build pressure for Ukraine to surrender, Russia may also take over some key strategic installations, till its strategic aims are achieved. It’s a harsh punishment for Ukraine’s uncomfortable geopolitical location and leadership’s desire to join NATO, which has thrust it into the centre of a “Big Power Contestation” that is going to be a tragedy for its people, in all contingencies.

Indian Response

The first priority for India should be to evacuate its own students and diaspora.It can push for diplomatic solutions and peaceful resolutions, as well as measures to reduce temperatures, but it should avoid taking sides because it has good connections with all of the opposing powers. While each country’s sovereignty must be maintained, both sides have rejected it when it has served their interests, as in the Iraq war, Crimea and Afghanistan.

India needs to factor the weak western response to Ukraine crisis in its strategic calculations, as it can embolden other authoritative powers like China to take similar actions in Indo-Pacific region.

(Major General S.B. Asthana is a strategic and security analyst, a veteran Infantry General. He is the Chief Instructor, United Service Institution of India. The views expressed are personal)

Crime

KEM Hospital student Sejal Pawar submits written apology after viral remarks on cadavers

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Mumbai, June 12: Sejal Pawar, a medical student at Mumbai’s King Edward Memorial (KEM) Hospital, has submitted a written apology to the institution after a video of her making controversial remarks about cadavers went viral on social media, triggering widespread criticism and legal action.

Hospital sources said senior doctors were deeply upset by Pawar’s comments, particularly because cadavers are voluntarily donated for medical education and are regarded with the utmost respect by the medical fraternity.

According to hospital authorities, Pawar has not been suspended, and no disciplinary action, such as suspension, has been taken against her so far. However, officials indicated that while the institution does not intend to be excessively harsh, it will deal with the matter seriously.

The senior doctors of the hospital have told her that her statement on social media has hurt them a lot, sources said, adding that the issue concerns the dignity accorded to body donors who make medical education possible.

Pawar, who hails from Pune, came under intense scrutiny after a video clip from a public programme went viral online. In the clip, she allegedly made objectionable remarks related to the private parts of cadavers while discussing a sensitive medical education topic in a light-hearted manner.

The controversy prompted strong backlash on social media and led to the registration of an FIR against her. Maharashtra Cyber Police has also initiated action in the matter.

Taking cognisance of the incident, KEM Hospital ordered an internal inquiry and constituted a committee to examine the issue. The hospital administration directed the panel to submit its report at the earliest.

Amid mounting criticism and institutional scrutiny, earlier, Pawar issued a public apology through a detailed post on Instagram.

“Recently, a video clip of mine has gone viral on social media. After watching the video again, I realised how much my words hurt people’s sentiments,” she said in a video post.

She acknowledged that the subject she spoke about was highly sensitive and said she never intended to offend anyone.

“I am not going to justify it, never going to take the wrong side. I wanted to come here and make a public apology. I take full responsibility for my mistake,” she said.

Calling the episode a major learning experience, Pawar added that as a student, she had learned an important lesson and would ensure that such an incident is never repeated in the future.

The hospital’s inquiry report is awaited, while authorities continue to examine the circumstances surrounding the viral video and its impact on public sentiment and medical ethics.

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Crime

Woman arrested at Mumbai airport for smuggling drugs worth Rs 11.82 crore from Bangkok

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Mumbai, June 12: In a major anti-narcotics operation, the Customs Department has arrested a 28-year-old woman at Mumbai’s Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj International Airport for allegedly attempting to smuggle a large quantity of hydroponic weed into the country. The seized contraband, weighing more than 11 kg, is estimated to be worth Rs 11.82 crore in the international market.

According to Customs officials, the woman arrived in Mumbai on a flight from Bangkok and came under suspicion during routine surveillance and passenger profiling. A detailed examination of her luggage led to the recovery of 12 vacuum-sealed transparent plastic packets concealed inside her trolley bag.

The packets were found to contain hydroponic weed, a high-grade form of cannabis. Officials said a total of 11.824 kg of the narcotic substance was seized during the operation. The accused, who reportedly worked as a relationship manager at a private company, was taken into custody following the recovery.

A case has been registered against her under the provisions of the Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances (NDPS) Act. She was subsequently produced before a court, which remanded her to judicial custody.

The seizure is part of a series of recent operations by Customs authorities aimed at curbing international drug trafficking through Indian airports.

Earlier, on June 8, customs officials at Delhi’s Indira Gandhi International (IGI) Airport had foiled a major narcotics smuggling attempt by seizing 15.38 kg of suspected hydroponic weed concealed inside two geysers. Acting on specific intelligence inputs and passenger profiling, officers intercepted two passengers who had arrived from Kuala Lumpur on Flight D7-182. The passengers were stopped after crossing the Green Channel, and a detailed inspection led to the recovery of the contraband.

In another significant case on May 23, Customs officials at IGI Airport had intercepted two Thai nationals arriving from Bangkok on flight AI-2356 after they crossed the Customs Green Channel. Based on profiling inputs and suspicious travel patterns, officers carried out a detailed examination of their baggage.

The inspection resulted in the recovery of six vacuum-sealed packets suspected to contain hydroponic weed. Of the total seizure, approximately 29 kg was recovered from one passenger’s baggage, while around 19 kg was recovered from the second passenger.

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Crime

Delhi Police bust auto-lifters gang, arrest six

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New Delhi, June 12: In a major crackdown on motor vehicle theft and habitual offenders, Delhi Police have arrested six accused persons and recovered 15 stolen two-wheelers in a series of coordinated operations carried out across multiple police stations.

According to an official press release, the operations were conducted by teams of Delhi Police West District, including Police Station Tilak Nagar, AATS/West District, PS Mayapuri and PP Madipur/PS Punjabi Bagh. The drive also led to the resolution of 11 motor vehicle theft cases and recovery of one illegal weapon.

“West District Police cracks down on auto-lifters & habitual property offenders; 06 accused arrested, 15 stolen two-wheelers recovered, 11 cases worked out,” the press release stated.

The police said the action was part of a sustained drive against “motor vehicle theft, property offences and habitual criminals” using technical surveillance, secret information and field intelligence.

During the operations, “a total of six accused persons were apprehended and fifteen stolen two-wheelers, along with one illegal button-actuated knife, were recovered,” the release said.

In one of the key cases, police arrested Gurpreet Singh @ Lalli, described as a “notorious auto-lifter and BC of PS Tilak Nagar”, following a trap near M-Block Park, Najafgarh Road. Police recovered two stolen motorcycles and one scooty from him. The accused also led to the recovery of another stolen motorcycle during interrogation.

In another major operation, AATS/West District apprehended Md. Saddam and Suraj near ESI Metro Station Parking, Rajouri Garden, while they were travelling on a stolen Honda Activa. Their interrogation led to the recovery of six additional stolen two-wheelers.

Police said the accused were found to be supplying stolen vehicles to a “Mewati gang”, and further investigation is underway to trace the wider syndicate.

In a separate case, Police Station Mayapuri solved a motorcycle theft within three days by analysing CCTV footage and technical inputs. Two accused were arrested from Rohini, leading to the recovery of four stolen motorcycles linked to multiple police station cases.

In another incident, vigilant staff of Police Post Madipur apprehended Rajeev Gupta near Jheel Park after he attempted to flee. A stolen scooty and a button-actuated knife were recovered from his possession.

The West District Police said the overall operation resulted in the arrest of six accused, recovery of 11 motorcycles and four scooties, and registration of one Arms Act case along with 11 motor vehicle theft cases being worked out.

The police described the action as the result of “professional investigation, field intelligence and vigilant policing” aimed at curbing street crime and improving public safety.

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