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Have Big Powers pushed Ukraine to Disaster?

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Russia has declared war on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and is executing a plan meticulously prepared and war-games. NATO appears to have over-relied on the potency of its sanctions to deter Putin, which appears to be a major strategic error because it has not worked in the past and does not appear to be working now. Instead, it has emboldened Russian leadership’s resolve that NATO will be unable to respond to a quick offensive beyond condemnation, Ukraine’s capacity building, and sanctions on Russia.

It has pushed Ukraine to disaster, as its President’s loud demand to join NATO was neither acted upon by West, nor provided him any assurance that anyone else would do the heavy lifting or put boots on the ground in Ukraine to fight Russians, despite a massive military force imbalance in Russia’s favour.

Decoding Strategic and Military Action of Russia so far

The contours and logic of Russian plans were evident from its posturing over months, President Putin’s speeches to the nation and his demands made to Ukraine. The political aim of Russia seems to be to target Ukraine’s leadershipto give up demand of NATO membership, or else force a regime change, replacingit with a pro-Russian government not propagating NATO membership/agenda.

Strategically, the centre of gravity for the Russian offensive is the minds of Ukraine’s leadership and military to surrender to Russia with minimum militaryactions. This strategic goal cannot be realised without surrounding Kyiv, which is the key strategic objective; as a result, operations to encircle Kyiv and capture adjacent airbases have been launched. After Russia recognised the independence of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic, the liberation of the Donbas region was a foregone conclusion.

The military aim is to demilitarise Ukrainian military to ensure that Ukraine cannot be used as a springboard by NATO to threaten the security of Russia and isolate Kyiv to facilitate regime change without military interference. To shape the battlefield, Russian military postured three sides of Ukraine with massive combat superiority, used forces in Belarus to invade from the North to reach Kyiv via shortest route, used its Black Sea fleet and Crimea to blockade Ukraine from South, and forces in Donbas region to invade from east and some forces from northeast to expedite consolidation.

The military operations were preceded by cyber-attacks and information warfare. Military operations were launched in a well-planned and professional manner under the banner of ‘Special Operations,’ beginning with air and missile strikes to neutralise air defence capability, air assets to achieve air superiority, and pulverise military targets, claiming to have destroyed over 70 military targets and installations, including 11 airfields in Ukraine, before ground elements marched in, adding conventional superiority to upgrade its hybrid war.

NATO’s Response and Future Options

President Biden’s address on February 22, and statements of other western leaders, clearly indicated that NATO is not going to have boots on ground in Ukraine and will depend on financial sanctions and material support to Ukraine as response to Russian aggression.

This weakness emboldened Russia to seize opportunity for offensive into Ukraine with minimum military cost, so far. NATO is still unclear about further responses, as the Russian offensive is already underway; hence time for any possible military action by NATO is already over. NATO, therefore is only salvaging its own security by strengthening NATO countries bordering Ukraine/Russia to prevent any possibility of Russian adventurism into any of the NATO countries, leaving Ukraine to its fate, as it’s not a member of NATO as yet.

Likely Russian Action Ahead

Russia will try to achieve its strategic objectives as fast as possible and move out of Ukraine to minimise its cost. It will avoid fighting in built up areas, as it will prolong the invasion and may not remain as an occupational force to avoid backlash from a segment of hostile population turning into insurgency against it.

It will therefore try to maximise pressure on Ukraine by all instruments of power to submit to regime change or force it at the earliest and de-escalate. Notwithstanding what Russia wants, the resolve of Ukrainian military and leadership will determine the timeframe and escalation dynamics and the support of NATO to refuel resistance will determine the staying power. Russia is unlikely to make the mistake of annexing Ukraine, as it does not make sense in strategic cost benefit analysis. To build pressure for Ukraine to surrender, Russia may also take over some key strategic installations, till its strategic aims are achieved. It’s a harsh punishment for Ukraine’s uncomfortable geopolitical location and leadership’s desire to join NATO, which has thrust it into the centre of a “Big Power Contestation” that is going to be a tragedy for its people, in all contingencies.

Indian Response

The first priority for India should be to evacuate its own students and diaspora.It can push for diplomatic solutions and peaceful resolutions, as well as measures to reduce temperatures, but it should avoid taking sides because it has good connections with all of the opposing powers. While each country’s sovereignty must be maintained, both sides have rejected it when it has served their interests, as in the Iraq war, Crimea and Afghanistan.

India needs to factor the weak western response to Ukraine crisis in its strategic calculations, as it can embolden other authoritative powers like China to take similar actions in Indo-Pacific region.

(Major General S.B. Asthana is a strategic and security analyst, a veteran Infantry General. He is the Chief Instructor, United Service Institution of India. The views expressed are personal)

Crime

20 years of harassment, says K’taka cab driver after arrest for killing 7 of wife’s family

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Bengaluru : A cab driver arrested for allegedly killing seven members of his wife’s family in Bengaluru has told police that he committed the gruesome crime following years of mental harassment by his wife and her family members, police said on Friday. The accused, Indushekar, allegedly claimed during interrogation that his wife had harassed him for nearly 20 years and that her family members had always supported her. He reportedly narrated incidents of alleged mental harassment over a long period while being questioned by the police. The shocking incident has sent shockwaves across Karnataka, with seven members of the same family, including the accused’s wife, a child, his mother-in-law and other relatives, allegedly murdered over a period of about 15 days. Indushekar, a cab driver, was arrested by the Rajajinagar police in connection with the case.

The deceased have been identified as his wife Suneeta, brothers-in-law Shivakumar and Shankar, Shivakumar’s wife Divya, their son Puneeth, Shankar’s wife Nalini and his mother-in-law Roopavathi. According to the police investigation, the accused allegedly invited the family members to his rented house on the pretext of hosting a meal of mutton dishes. He allegedly mixed sleeping tablets in the food and, after the victims became unconscious, attacked them using a grinding stone and other means. Police sources said the accused transported the bodies in his car and disposed of them at different locations. The accused had been living in a rented house near Bhashyam Circle for the past eight years. He had also reportedly filed a case against the owner of the building. During interrogation, Indushekar allegedly told police that he and his wife frequently quarrelled and that she treated him as a “useless man”. He also allegedly claimed that her family members always supported her during their disputes. However, family members of the victims have rejected his claims and raised questions over the killing of the other relatives.

“If he was unhappy with his wife, why did he want to kill the others?” family members asked, alleging that the murders could have been motivated by a property dispute. According to the family members, they received a message stating that the family was going on a three-day trip to the Hogenakkal area and that there was no need for them to worry. As the message came during the Dasara festival period, they initially did not suspect anything. The relatives said they waited until last Thursday and repeatedly tried to contact the family, but their calls went unanswered. When they went to Indushekar’s house, they found it locked. Police are also examining the circumstances surrounding messages allegedly sent to the victims’ relatives to create the impression that the family had gone on a trip.

The accused’s daughter had also allegedly called other family members to her house, saying that she wanted to have good food as her mother had gone on a trip. The case came to light after family members became suspicious about the prolonged absence of the victims. During questioning, Indushekar allegedly gave contradictory statements, following which police searched his residence and reportedly found clues linked to the murders. The body of Puneeth was recovered near Nandi Hills in Chikkaballapur district after police took the accused to the area for a search operation. Efforts are continuing to trace the bodies of the remaining victims. Police have also seized the car allegedly used to transport the bodies. Investigators are examining the complete sequence of events, including the alleged motive behind the killings. Senior police officers are supervising the investigation, and a special team has been formed to trace the remaining bodies and collect evidence. Further investigation is underway.

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Crime

2021 Antilia bomb-scare: Bombay HC cancels Mumbai ex-cop Sachin Vaze bail

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In a setback to controversial Mumbai ex-cop Sachin Vaze, the Bombay High Court on Thursday cancelled bail granted to him by a lower court in the 2021 Antilia bomb-scare and Mansukh Hiran murder cases.

A bench of Justices Girish Kulkarni and Neela Gokhale passed the order while accepting an appeal filed by the National Investigation Agency (NIA), against the September 29 order of a special court granting bail to Vaze.

“The impugned order of the special court is quashed and set aside. The appeal by the NIA is allowed,” the High Court order said.

Vaze is an accused in the Antilia bomb scare case, wherein an SUV laden with explosives was recovered near industrialist Mukesh Ambani’s Mumbai residence in February 2021.

Hiren was one of a possible witness in the case who was later found murdered.

The High Court had earlier imposed an interim stay on the bail granted to the former Assistant Police Inspector Vaze by the Special NIA Court, resulting in Vaze remaining in judicial custody in Thane Central Prison where he has been lodged for the past five years.

The NIA had opposed the controversial dismissed cop’s bail, claiming that Vaze could tamper with witnesses and destroy evidence.

“He (Vaze) was earlier charged in a fake encounter case. He was a police officer who had the duty of protecting the public. But he himself indulged in criminal activities where he not just tried to instill fear and terror but he murdered a person,” the NIA’s lawyer said.

Earlier while hearing the NIA’s appeal in October, the High Court expressed surprise over Vaze’s lifestyle, including the use of high-end cars.

The bench also flagged Vaze’s extended stay of about 100 days in a room booked at the Oberoi hotel, asking how an officer of the rank of Assistant Police Inspector could afford to drive high-end vehicles.

The High Court said that these aspects of Vaze’s financial situation, conduct, and professional record were relevant to assessing the charges against him.

Additional Solicitor General Anil Singh, representing the NIA, shared with the High Court witness statements that mentioned that Vaze used expensive and luxury vehicles while he was an Assistant Police Inspector.

During the hearing, Anil Singh read out a witness statement, which said that Vaze travelled in a black Mercedes and asked those accompanying him to turn off their mobile phones.

The court then asked whether the Mercedes belonged to Vaze and whether there was any evidence that the vehicle was registered in his name.

After the NIA responded in the affirmative, the court asked whether it was normal for an Assistant Police Inspector to own such an expensive car.

The court remarked, “Since we have not yet seen an Assistant Police Inspector driving a Mercedes…”

The court also sought information from the NIA regarding Vaze’s other vehicles and reviewed a list of five vehicles he used while serving as Assistant Police Inspector.

This list included a white BMW, a black Volvo, a white Mercedes, a white Toyota Land Cruiser Prado, and another black Mercedes.

Seeing the number of vehicles, the court said, “He (Sachin Vaze) owns five vehicles…”

The court noted that, according to statements submitted by the NIA, Vaze travelled in a high-end Mercedes to the Mumbai Police Commissioner’s office and the Maharashtra Chief Minister’s residence, ‘Varsha’.

NIA’s lawyer Anil Singh also told the court that Vaze had stayed at a seven-star hotel in South Mumbai for around 100 days.

The court asked how a police officer, earning a monthly salary of around Rs 90,000 at the time, could afford such an expensive lifestyle.

The NIA said that these vehicles owned and used by Vaze are being linked to alleged extortion in the case.

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Crime

Fake PM Wi-Fi scheme busted in Kolkata, six arrested for cheating people of crores

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The Kolkata Police arrested six people, including five women, after busting a fake call centre in the Dalhousie area of central Kolkata that allegedly cheated people across the country by promising lifetime internet access under a fictitious Pradhan Mantri Wi-Fi Yojana, a senior police officer said on Thursday.

The arrests followed allegations that the accused were collecting money from unsuspecting people by posing as government representatives and offering them benefits under the purported scheme. Several mobile phones, laptops and a massive database containing customer information were seized during the raid.

Investigators suspect that the fraudsters cheated people of crores of rupees through the operation. The police have launched a detailed probe to establish the extent of the fraud, identify other members of the racket and trace the money collected from victims.

According to the police officer, the operators of the fake call centre claimed that a new Pradhan Mantri Wi-Fi Yojana had been launched by the government. They allegedly told prospective customers that by paying a small amount as the first instalment, they would be entitled to use Wi-Fi services anywhere in the country for the rest of their lives.

The attractive offer reportedly persuaded several people to part with their money. Preliminary investigations have revealed that the alleged victims were from different parts of the country, including a large number from Kolkata.

The accused allegedly contacted people over the phone, introduced themselves as government representatives and explained the purported benefits of the scheme. They followed a prepared script to convince customers to make payments, police said.

Acting on a tip-off received from a confidential source, the Kolkata Police detectives raided the call centre at Government Place (East) in the Dalhousie area on Wednesday. Six people, including five women, were arrested during the operation.

Krishnendu Saha, the manager of the call centre, is among those arrested.

During the search, investigators recovered several mobile phones, laptops, a large customer database and a written script allegedly used by the telecallers to lure prospective victims.

The police are questioning the arrested persons to ascertain how the racket operated, how many people were cheated and whether other individuals or organisations were involved in running the operation. Investigators are also examining the seized electronic devices and customer records to identify more victims.

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