Crime
Have Big Powers pushed Ukraine to Disaster?
Russia has declared war on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and is executing a plan meticulously prepared and war-games. NATO appears to have over-relied on the potency of its sanctions to deter Putin, which appears to be a major strategic error because it has not worked in the past and does not appear to be working now. Instead, it has emboldened Russian leadership’s resolve that NATO will be unable to respond to a quick offensive beyond condemnation, Ukraine’s capacity building, and sanctions on Russia.
It has pushed Ukraine to disaster, as its President’s loud demand to join NATO was neither acted upon by West, nor provided him any assurance that anyone else would do the heavy lifting or put boots on the ground in Ukraine to fight Russians, despite a massive military force imbalance in Russia’s favour.
Decoding Strategic and Military Action of Russia so far
The contours and logic of Russian plans were evident from its posturing over months, President Putin’s speeches to the nation and his demands made to Ukraine. The political aim of Russia seems to be to target Ukraine’s leadershipto give up demand of NATO membership, or else force a regime change, replacingit with a pro-Russian government not propagating NATO membership/agenda.
Strategically, the centre of gravity for the Russian offensive is the minds of Ukraine’s leadership and military to surrender to Russia with minimum militaryactions. This strategic goal cannot be realised without surrounding Kyiv, which is the key strategic objective; as a result, operations to encircle Kyiv and capture adjacent airbases have been launched. After Russia recognised the independence of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic, the liberation of the Donbas region was a foregone conclusion.
The military aim is to demilitarise Ukrainian military to ensure that Ukraine cannot be used as a springboard by NATO to threaten the security of Russia and isolate Kyiv to facilitate regime change without military interference. To shape the battlefield, Russian military postured three sides of Ukraine with massive combat superiority, used forces in Belarus to invade from the North to reach Kyiv via shortest route, used its Black Sea fleet and Crimea to blockade Ukraine from South, and forces in Donbas region to invade from east and some forces from northeast to expedite consolidation.
The military operations were preceded by cyber-attacks and information warfare. Military operations were launched in a well-planned and professional manner under the banner of ‘Special Operations,’ beginning with air and missile strikes to neutralise air defence capability, air assets to achieve air superiority, and pulverise military targets, claiming to have destroyed over 70 military targets and installations, including 11 airfields in Ukraine, before ground elements marched in, adding conventional superiority to upgrade its hybrid war.
NATO’s Response and Future Options
President Biden’s address on February 22, and statements of other western leaders, clearly indicated that NATO is not going to have boots on ground in Ukraine and will depend on financial sanctions and material support to Ukraine as response to Russian aggression.
This weakness emboldened Russia to seize opportunity for offensive into Ukraine with minimum military cost, so far. NATO is still unclear about further responses, as the Russian offensive is already underway; hence time for any possible military action by NATO is already over. NATO, therefore is only salvaging its own security by strengthening NATO countries bordering Ukraine/Russia to prevent any possibility of Russian adventurism into any of the NATO countries, leaving Ukraine to its fate, as it’s not a member of NATO as yet.
Likely Russian Action Ahead
Russia will try to achieve its strategic objectives as fast as possible and move out of Ukraine to minimise its cost. It will avoid fighting in built up areas, as it will prolong the invasion and may not remain as an occupational force to avoid backlash from a segment of hostile population turning into insurgency against it.
It will therefore try to maximise pressure on Ukraine by all instruments of power to submit to regime change or force it at the earliest and de-escalate. Notwithstanding what Russia wants, the resolve of Ukrainian military and leadership will determine the timeframe and escalation dynamics and the support of NATO to refuel resistance will determine the staying power. Russia is unlikely to make the mistake of annexing Ukraine, as it does not make sense in strategic cost benefit analysis. To build pressure for Ukraine to surrender, Russia may also take over some key strategic installations, till its strategic aims are achieved. It’s a harsh punishment for Ukraine’s uncomfortable geopolitical location and leadership’s desire to join NATO, which has thrust it into the centre of a “Big Power Contestation” that is going to be a tragedy for its people, in all contingencies.
Indian Response
The first priority for India should be to evacuate its own students and diaspora.It can push for diplomatic solutions and peaceful resolutions, as well as measures to reduce temperatures, but it should avoid taking sides because it has good connections with all of the opposing powers. While each country’s sovereignty must be maintained, both sides have rejected it when it has served their interests, as in the Iraq war, Crimea and Afghanistan.
India needs to factor the weak western response to Ukraine crisis in its strategic calculations, as it can embolden other authoritative powers like China to take similar actions in Indo-Pacific region.
(Major General S.B. Asthana is a strategic and security analyst, a veteran Infantry General. He is the Chief Instructor, United Service Institution of India. The views expressed are personal)
Crime
DRI seizes 9.40 kg gold powder valued at Rs 14.81 crore at Mumbai airport

Mumbai, Sep 25: The Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI), Mumbai Zonal Unit, has seized 9.40 kg of foreign-origin gold valued at about Rs 14.81 crore and arrested three Indian passengers at Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj International Airport.
The interception took place in the early hours of Wednesday (September 23) based on specific intelligence, with operational assistance from the Air Intelligence Unit of Mumbai Airport Customs. The three passengers, who had arrived from Dubai, were found carrying a sophisticated concealment of gold.
A detailed examination of their baggage revealed that foreign-origin gold had been converted into fine powder and meticulously mixed with packaged food products of similar colour, texture, and consistency. This method was designed to evade routine detection.
The gold powder was concealed across several ordinary-looking food packets, including milk powder, oats, various flours, Nutella and coconut milk powder. In total, about 33.50 kg of food products mixed with gold powder were recovered from the baggage of the three travellers.
Through careful segregation and assaying, DRI officers recovered 9.40 kg of pure foreign-origin gold. The seized gold has been valued at around Rs 14.81 crore. The consignment was seized under the relevant provisions of the Customs Act, 1962.
During questioning, all three passengers admitted that they were acting on behalf of the same organised gold-smuggling syndicate. Customs arrested them under the Customs Act, 1962.
Officials described the modus operandi as novel and highly sophisticated. By blending powdered gold with everyday food items that closely matched its appearance and texture, the smugglers attempted to bypass standard security and customs checks.
The DRI said the operation highlights the evolving tactics used by international gold-smuggling networks and the agency’s continued efforts to dismantle such syndicates. The case forms part of the DRI’s sustained crackdown on gold smuggling through Indian airports.
Further investigations are under way to identify other members of the syndicate and trace the larger network behind the operation.
Crime
Cocaine tucked into trolley bag handle, plastic supports; Ugandan flyer held at Ahmedabad airport

Ahmedabad, Sep 25: A Ugandan national was arrested at Ahmedabad’s Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International Airport (SVPIA) after the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) seized 981 grams of cocaine allegedly concealed inside the telescopic handle and plastic support parts of his trolley bag, officials said on Friday.
Acting on specific intelligence developed by the DRI’s Ahmedabad Zonal Unit, officers intercepted the passenger after he arrived at SVPIA on Qatar Airways flight QR-534 on September 24.
The passenger had allegedly arrived with narcotic substances concealed in his baggage.
According to the DRI, the passenger initially denied carrying any contraband.
A detailed examination of his trolley bag, however, led officers to detect white powdery substances packed in polythene bags and “cleverly” concealed inside the bag’s telescopic handle and plastic support components.
The recovered substance weighed 981 grams and tested positive for cocaine, following which it was seized under the provisions of the Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances (NDPS) Act, 1985. The passenger was arrested under the Act.
Further investigation is underway to establish the source of the cocaine, its intended destination and the wider network, if any, involved in the alleged smuggling attempt.
The seizure comes days after the DRI reported a series of intelligence-led operations across the country in which more than 845 kg of narcotic and psychotropic substances were seized and 15 people arrested.
Among the cases was the seizure of around 5.8 kg of cocaine from an Indian passenger arriving at Delhi’s Indira Gandhi International Airport from Dubai via Doha on September 15. The cocaine was found in nine packets inside his checked-in baggage.
In another recent case, the DRI seized 2.659 kg of cocaine worth an estimated Rs 13.295 crore in two separate operations at Mumbai airport in May.
One passenger arriving from Addis Ababa was found carrying 1.575 kg of liquid cocaine in eight pouches, while an African male passenger was found to have ingested capsules containing 1.084 kg of cocaine. Both were arrested under the NDPS Act.
Crime
Four more held in MPSC drug inspector paper leak case; total arrests rise to 11

Mumbai, Sep 25: The Special Investigation Team (SIT) of the Mumbai Crime Branch has arrested four more accused in connection with the Maharashtra Public Service Commission (MPSC) Drug Inspector exam question paper leak case, taking the total number of arrests to 11.
The latest arrests include two candidates and two middlemen. The arrested candidates have been identified as Sajid Sande and Vijay Kinger. Sande was arrested from Sangli, while Kinger was apprehended from Buldhana.
The two middlemen, Sandeep Khalate and Bhairavnath Kadam, were arrested from Navi Mumbai, according to the investigation.
The probe has revealed violations of the confidentiality and fairness of the MPSC examination. The investigation is also examining allegations that official duties were misused to unlawfully access, withdraw and exchange question papers for financial gain.
Earlier, former Under Secretary Abhijit Lendve, Assistant Chamber Officers Visheshwar Nakate and Gopal Marathe, Kautilya Academy Director Praveen Patil, alleged middlemen Amrit Patil and Lokesh alias Gaurav Patil, and candidate Rituja Patil were arrested in connection with the case.
With the latest four arrests, the total number of accused arrested in the case has reached 11.
The SIT is conducting further investigations and is examining the possible involvement of other individuals in the alleged question paper leak.
The case had earlier triggered protests among MPSC aspirants. On September 7, thousands of candidates took to the streets in Pune, demanding greater transparency in the commission’s functioning and seeking the removal of its chairman, Vivek Bhimanwar.
Meanwhile, the investigation into the alleged paper leak had taken an unusual turn after a personal dispute reportedly led to information about the alleged leak reaching the MPSC.
According to the Crime Branch, Lokesh alias Gaurav Patil, 24, was himself a recipient of the leaked question paper and had obtained it from his then-girlfriend, Rituja Patil, before the March 22 examination.
Police allege that after the two separated, Patil approached the MPSC and informed the commission about the alleged leak. According to the investigation, he was concerned that Rituja Patil would move on after securing a government job.
The Crime Branch is continuing its probe to establish the complete chain through which the question paper was accessed and circulated, as well as the roles played by the candidates, alleged middlemen and other individuals involved in the case.
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