Crime
Have Big Powers pushed Ukraine to Disaster?
Russia has declared war on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and is executing a plan meticulously prepared and war-games. NATO appears to have over-relied on the potency of its sanctions to deter Putin, which appears to be a major strategic error because it has not worked in the past and does not appear to be working now. Instead, it has emboldened Russian leadership’s resolve that NATO will be unable to respond to a quick offensive beyond condemnation, Ukraine’s capacity building, and sanctions on Russia.
It has pushed Ukraine to disaster, as its President’s loud demand to join NATO was neither acted upon by West, nor provided him any assurance that anyone else would do the heavy lifting or put boots on the ground in Ukraine to fight Russians, despite a massive military force imbalance in Russia’s favour.
Decoding Strategic and Military Action of Russia so far
The contours and logic of Russian plans were evident from its posturing over months, President Putin’s speeches to the nation and his demands made to Ukraine. The political aim of Russia seems to be to target Ukraine’s leadershipto give up demand of NATO membership, or else force a regime change, replacingit with a pro-Russian government not propagating NATO membership/agenda.
Strategically, the centre of gravity for the Russian offensive is the minds of Ukraine’s leadership and military to surrender to Russia with minimum militaryactions. This strategic goal cannot be realised without surrounding Kyiv, which is the key strategic objective; as a result, operations to encircle Kyiv and capture adjacent airbases have been launched. After Russia recognised the independence of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic, the liberation of the Donbas region was a foregone conclusion.
The military aim is to demilitarise Ukrainian military to ensure that Ukraine cannot be used as a springboard by NATO to threaten the security of Russia and isolate Kyiv to facilitate regime change without military interference. To shape the battlefield, Russian military postured three sides of Ukraine with massive combat superiority, used forces in Belarus to invade from the North to reach Kyiv via shortest route, used its Black Sea fleet and Crimea to blockade Ukraine from South, and forces in Donbas region to invade from east and some forces from northeast to expedite consolidation.
The military operations were preceded by cyber-attacks and information warfare. Military operations were launched in a well-planned and professional manner under the banner of ‘Special Operations,’ beginning with air and missile strikes to neutralise air defence capability, air assets to achieve air superiority, and pulverise military targets, claiming to have destroyed over 70 military targets and installations, including 11 airfields in Ukraine, before ground elements marched in, adding conventional superiority to upgrade its hybrid war.
NATO’s Response and Future Options
President Biden’s address on February 22, and statements of other western leaders, clearly indicated that NATO is not going to have boots on ground in Ukraine and will depend on financial sanctions and material support to Ukraine as response to Russian aggression.
This weakness emboldened Russia to seize opportunity for offensive into Ukraine with minimum military cost, so far. NATO is still unclear about further responses, as the Russian offensive is already underway; hence time for any possible military action by NATO is already over. NATO, therefore is only salvaging its own security by strengthening NATO countries bordering Ukraine/Russia to prevent any possibility of Russian adventurism into any of the NATO countries, leaving Ukraine to its fate, as it’s not a member of NATO as yet.
Likely Russian Action Ahead
Russia will try to achieve its strategic objectives as fast as possible and move out of Ukraine to minimise its cost. It will avoid fighting in built up areas, as it will prolong the invasion and may not remain as an occupational force to avoid backlash from a segment of hostile population turning into insurgency against it.
It will therefore try to maximise pressure on Ukraine by all instruments of power to submit to regime change or force it at the earliest and de-escalate. Notwithstanding what Russia wants, the resolve of Ukrainian military and leadership will determine the timeframe and escalation dynamics and the support of NATO to refuel resistance will determine the staying power. Russia is unlikely to make the mistake of annexing Ukraine, as it does not make sense in strategic cost benefit analysis. To build pressure for Ukraine to surrender, Russia may also take over some key strategic installations, till its strategic aims are achieved. It’s a harsh punishment for Ukraine’s uncomfortable geopolitical location and leadership’s desire to join NATO, which has thrust it into the centre of a “Big Power Contestation” that is going to be a tragedy for its people, in all contingencies.
Indian Response
The first priority for India should be to evacuate its own students and diaspora.It can push for diplomatic solutions and peaceful resolutions, as well as measures to reduce temperatures, but it should avoid taking sides because it has good connections with all of the opposing powers. While each country’s sovereignty must be maintained, both sides have rejected it when it has served their interests, as in the Iraq war, Crimea and Afghanistan.
India needs to factor the weak western response to Ukraine crisis in its strategic calculations, as it can embolden other authoritative powers like China to take similar actions in Indo-Pacific region.
(Major General S.B. Asthana is a strategic and security analyst, a veteran Infantry General. He is the Chief Instructor, United Service Institution of India. The views expressed are personal)
Crime
Arms, ammunition, narcotics recovered by security forces in J&K’s Kupwara
Srinagar, Dec 18: Security forces said on Wednesday that a large cache of arms, ammunition and narcotics was recovered during searches in Jammu and Kashmir’s (J&K) Kupwara district.
Officials said on Wednesday, “Security forces, including the Army and the police recovered four pistols, six pistol magazines, four kilograms of narcotics, and other incriminating materials during a search operation in the general area of Amrohi, Tangdhar in Kupwara District.”
Security forces have started an aggressive campaign against terrorists, their Over Ground Workers (OGWs) and sympathisers in order to dismantle the terror ecosystem in J&K.
Properties worth multiples of crores belonging to drug smugglers and peddlers have been attached in Kashmir Valley after obtaining requisite orders from the competent authority.
Lieutenant Governor (LG) Manoj Sinha has been chairing top-level security meetings.
During these meetings the LG has given clear orders to the security forces to go all-out against the terror ecosystem.
Union Home Minister, Amit Shah is chairing a top level security review meeting regarding J&K on Thursday in Delhi.
Chiefs of Intelligence agencies, police, CAPFs and others connected with the anti-terrorist grid in J&K will attend the meeting.
Security forces revised their strategy after terrorists carried out some dastardly attacks in the aftermath of peaceful people participative Lok Sabha and legislative Assembly elections in J&K.
These elections were witnessed by diplomats of many countries and this, according to Intelligence agencies, has frustrated the terror handlers sitting across the border in Pakistan.
Intelligence inputs indicate that the terror handlers have given directions to terrorists in J&K to give dying terrorism its last push.
Heightened vigilance is also being maintained at the border in J&K following reports that terrorists are waiting at the launching pads to sneak into the Indian side of the border before the mountain passes are closed by this season’s snow.
Crime
RG Kar case: Calcutta HC admits petition challenging denial of police permission for protest
Kolkata, Dec 17: A single-judge bench of the Calcutta High Court on Tuesday morning admitted a petition by the West Bengal Joint Platform of Doctors, an umbrella association of senior doctors, challenging the denial of permission from Kolkata Police to stage a 10-day sit-in-demonstration to protest the “default bail” to two accused — Sandip Ghosh and Abhijit Mondal — of tampering of evidence.
However, the original schedule of the sit-in-protest which was to start from Tuesday evening till December 26, had been upset since the hearing into the matter is likely to take place on Wednesday, confirmed an office bearer of the association.
The association had earlier sent an email communiqué to Kolkata Police seeking permission for the sit-in-demonstration at Dorina Crossing in central Kolkata. However, as the police denied the permission citing the possibility of traffic congestion in the area as the reason, the association on Tuesday morning approached Calcutta High Court’s single-judge bench of Justice Tirthankar Ghosh, challenging the denial of police permission, which was admitted.
Last Friday, the special court in Kolkata granted “default bail” to the former and controversial principal of R.G. Kar Sandip Ghosh and the former SHO of Tala Police Station, Abhijit Mondal, following CBI’s failure to file a charge sheet against them the stipulated within 90 days of their arrests.
Both Ghosh and Mondal were accused of misleading the investigation and tampering with evidence during the initial investigation carried out by the Kolkata Police.
The CBI has so far filed only one charge sheet in the matter where civic volunteer Sanjay Roy has been identified as the “sole prime” accused in the rape and murder case.
Already West Bengal Junior Doctors’ Front, an umbrella body of junior doctors in the state, has threatened to resume their ceasework protest which they withdrew earlier keeping the larger public interest in mind.
The parents of the victim lady doctor have already claimed that following CBI’s failure in the matter “protests on the streets” with spontaneous public support is the only way out left for them now.
Crime
RG Kar case: Doctors’ body may move Calcutta High Court today as police refuse to allow protest
Kolkata, Dec 17: West Bengal Joint Platform of Doctors, an umbrella association of senior doctors in the state, might move Calcutta High Court on Tuesday challenging the denial of permission by Kolkata Police to stage a 10-day sit-in-demonstration to protest the “default bail” to the two accused in the RG Kar rape and murder case.
The said protest demonstration at Doreena Crossing in central Kolkata was slated to start on Tuesday evening and continue till December 26.
An association office-bearer said that in reply to their email communique to Kolkata Police seeking police permission for the sit-in protest, the city police denied it citing the possibility of traffic congestion in the area.
“In our communique, we assured the city police that there would be a peaceful sit-in-protest on one side of the street, leaving no chance for traffic congestion or deterioration in the law & order problem. However, the police have claimed that during this part of the year, several people gather in the area on occasions of Christmas and Yearend and citing them as reasons, the permission has been denied. Hence we are left with no other option but to move the Calcutta High Court seeking permission,” the association office bearer said.
Last Friday, the special court in Kolkata granted “default bail” to the former and controversial principal of R. G. Kar Sandip Ghosh and the former SHO of Tala Police Station, Abhijit Mondal, following CBI’s failure to file a charge sheet against them within the 90 days of their arrests.
Both Ghosh and Mondal were accused of misleading the investigation and tampering with evidence while the initial investigation was being carried out by Kolkata Police.
The CBI so far has filed only one charge sheet in the matter where civic volunteer Sanjay Roy has been identified as the “sole prime” accused in the rape and murder case.
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