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Have Big Powers pushed Ukraine to Disaster?

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Russia has declared war on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and is executing a plan meticulously prepared and war-games. NATO appears to have over-relied on the potency of its sanctions to deter Putin, which appears to be a major strategic error because it has not worked in the past and does not appear to be working now. Instead, it has emboldened Russian leadership’s resolve that NATO will be unable to respond to a quick offensive beyond condemnation, Ukraine’s capacity building, and sanctions on Russia.

It has pushed Ukraine to disaster, as its President’s loud demand to join NATO was neither acted upon by West, nor provided him any assurance that anyone else would do the heavy lifting or put boots on the ground in Ukraine to fight Russians, despite a massive military force imbalance in Russia’s favour.

Decoding Strategic and Military Action of Russia so far

The contours and logic of Russian plans were evident from its posturing over months, President Putin’s speeches to the nation and his demands made to Ukraine. The political aim of Russia seems to be to target Ukraine’s leadershipto give up demand of NATO membership, or else force a regime change, replacingit with a pro-Russian government not propagating NATO membership/agenda.

Strategically, the centre of gravity for the Russian offensive is the minds of Ukraine’s leadership and military to surrender to Russia with minimum militaryactions. This strategic goal cannot be realised without surrounding Kyiv, which is the key strategic objective; as a result, operations to encircle Kyiv and capture adjacent airbases have been launched. After Russia recognised the independence of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic, the liberation of the Donbas region was a foregone conclusion.

The military aim is to demilitarise Ukrainian military to ensure that Ukraine cannot be used as a springboard by NATO to threaten the security of Russia and isolate Kyiv to facilitate regime change without military interference. To shape the battlefield, Russian military postured three sides of Ukraine with massive combat superiority, used forces in Belarus to invade from the North to reach Kyiv via shortest route, used its Black Sea fleet and Crimea to blockade Ukraine from South, and forces in Donbas region to invade from east and some forces from northeast to expedite consolidation.

The military operations were preceded by cyber-attacks and information warfare. Military operations were launched in a well-planned and professional manner under the banner of ‘Special Operations,’ beginning with air and missile strikes to neutralise air defence capability, air assets to achieve air superiority, and pulverise military targets, claiming to have destroyed over 70 military targets and installations, including 11 airfields in Ukraine, before ground elements marched in, adding conventional superiority to upgrade its hybrid war.

NATO’s Response and Future Options

President Biden’s address on February 22, and statements of other western leaders, clearly indicated that NATO is not going to have boots on ground in Ukraine and will depend on financial sanctions and material support to Ukraine as response to Russian aggression.

This weakness emboldened Russia to seize opportunity for offensive into Ukraine with minimum military cost, so far. NATO is still unclear about further responses, as the Russian offensive is already underway; hence time for any possible military action by NATO is already over. NATO, therefore is only salvaging its own security by strengthening NATO countries bordering Ukraine/Russia to prevent any possibility of Russian adventurism into any of the NATO countries, leaving Ukraine to its fate, as it’s not a member of NATO as yet.

Likely Russian Action Ahead

Russia will try to achieve its strategic objectives as fast as possible and move out of Ukraine to minimise its cost. It will avoid fighting in built up areas, as it will prolong the invasion and may not remain as an occupational force to avoid backlash from a segment of hostile population turning into insurgency against it.

It will therefore try to maximise pressure on Ukraine by all instruments of power to submit to regime change or force it at the earliest and de-escalate. Notwithstanding what Russia wants, the resolve of Ukrainian military and leadership will determine the timeframe and escalation dynamics and the support of NATO to refuel resistance will determine the staying power. Russia is unlikely to make the mistake of annexing Ukraine, as it does not make sense in strategic cost benefit analysis. To build pressure for Ukraine to surrender, Russia may also take over some key strategic installations, till its strategic aims are achieved. It’s a harsh punishment for Ukraine’s uncomfortable geopolitical location and leadership’s desire to join NATO, which has thrust it into the centre of a “Big Power Contestation” that is going to be a tragedy for its people, in all contingencies.

Indian Response

The first priority for India should be to evacuate its own students and diaspora.It can push for diplomatic solutions and peaceful resolutions, as well as measures to reduce temperatures, but it should avoid taking sides because it has good connections with all of the opposing powers. While each country’s sovereignty must be maintained, both sides have rejected it when it has served their interests, as in the Iraq war, Crimea and Afghanistan.

India needs to factor the weak western response to Ukraine crisis in its strategic calculations, as it can embolden other authoritative powers like China to take similar actions in Indo-Pacific region.

(Major General S.B. Asthana is a strategic and security analyst, a veteran Infantry General. He is the Chief Instructor, United Service Institution of India. The views expressed are personal)

Crime

Mira-Bhayandar Crime: Kashigaon Police Arrest 3 Accused For House Burglary, Recover Cash And Gold Worth ₹2.36 Lakh

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Mira-Bhayandar, Jan 02: The Kashigaon Police Crime Detection Team has arrested three accused involved in a house burglary case and recovered stolen gold ornaments, cash and burglary tools.

According to the police, the incident took place on the morning of December 30, 2025, when the complainant, Shraddha Anil Shelar, a homemaker and resident of Hatkesh, Kashigaon, had locked her house and gone to Ramdev Park, Mira Road, along with her husband Anil Shelar to file nomination papers for the Ward No. 13 municipal councillor election.

When the couple returned home around 1.30 pm, they found the main door broken and household articles scattered. On checking the iron cupboard, it was discovered that gold ornaments weighing about 43 grams, including a gold chain, bracelet, earrings, nose ring and pendant worth approximately ₹2.16 lakh, along with ₹20,000 in cash, had been stolen.

Based on the complaint, Kashigaon Police registered a case under relevant sections of the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita for theft and house-breaking.

During the course of investigation, the police tracked down the accused and arrested them from Bhayandar Railway Station while they were attempting to flee to another state.

The arrested accused have been identified as Irfan Yusuf Khan (25), Sagar Dilip Soni (23) and Ajay Vijay Torne (19), all residents of the Mira Road area. One of the accused is originally from Nepal, police said.

Police have recovered the stolen gold ornaments, cash and the tools used for committing the burglary from the accused. Further investigation revealed that accused Irfan and Sagar have prior criminal records, with theft and house-breaking cases registered against them at Nayanagar, Navghar and Mira Road police stations, and had previously served jail sentences.

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Crime

BJP flags Sonia Gandhi angle in Sabarimala gold heist, seeks central probe

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Thiruvananthapuram, Jan 2: The BJP on Friday intensified its attack on the Congress over the Sabarimala gold theft case, asserting that the controversy cannot be resolved without a probe by central agencies and alleging that the Congress leadership, including Sonia Gandhi, has serious questions to answer.

Former BJP state president K. Surendran said the ongoing state-level investigation would not bring out the truth and was being structured to protect politically influential individuals.

Surendran recalled that the Kerala High Court had, at the very outset, expressed suspicion over the possible involvement of notorious idol-smuggling syndicates.

He said subsequent disclosures by Congress Working Committee (CWC) member and senior legislator Ramesh Chennithala lent credibility to concerns that the stolen gold and artefacts may have entered the international antiquities market.

“What was stolen is invaluable. This is not a local crime but an international idol-smuggling racket,” Surendran said.

The BJP leader placed particular emphasis on what he termed the Congress angle, referring to a photograph of Sonia Gandhi with prime accused Unnikrishnan Potti that surfaced during the course of the investigation.

Surendran said there was initially no reason for suspicion, as such interactions could appear routine. However, he accused senior Congress leaders, including Chennithala and Leader of the Opposition V.D. Satheesan, of gradually retreating from their initial positions once the issue gained public traction.

“Why did they step back? Why is there no clear explanation?” he asked.

Criticising Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s remarks on Sonia Gandhi as “political manoeuvring,” Surendran demanded clarity on who introduced the prime accused Unnikrishnan Potti to the Congress leadership.

He further alleged that individuals with close familial links to Sonia Gandhi in Italy are involved in the marketing of antiquities, arguing that this alleged international dimension warrants a thorough investigation by central agencies.

Surendran claimed that Chennithala may not have fully grasped the implications initially but later “entangled himself” by making partial disclosures.

“If he has information, why is he not standing firmly by it?” he asked, accusing the Congress of evasiveness and selective silence.

In a sarcastic remark, Surendran said that if the prevailing narrative is that CPI(M) leaders stole the gold, it may have to be amended to suggest that the Congress facilitated its sale.

“The Congress has an equal stake in this case and will not walk away unscathed,” he said.

Surendran also named former Travancore Devaswom Board member K.P. Shankardas as a key figure who, he alleged, enjoys high-level protection and has so far escaped scrutiny.

He claimed that arrests of prominent individuals took place only under strict court directives and criticised changes made to the Special Investigation Team (SIT) after the questioning of former Devaswom Minister Kadakampally Surendran, alleging that officers sympathetic to the CPI (M) were subsequently inducted.

All these factors, he said, underline the urgent need for a comprehensive investigation by central agencies.

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Crime

Thane Crime Branch Busts Major Drug Racket, Seizes 638 Kg Ganja Worth ₹2.04 Crore, One Arrested

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Thane: The Thane crime branch has arrested a 36-year-old man and seized 638 kg of marijuana worth about ₹2.04 crore during an operation on December 30.

The accused has been identified as Chinna Tagur Laxman Nayak, a resident of Mehabubnagar district in Telangana, who would often ferry the drugs from Odisha and Telangana to the city.

Acting on a tip-off, the property cell of the crime branch learned that a large drug consignment was being brought to Thane. A trap was laid at Kharegaon toll naka in Kalwa on the Mumbai–Nashik highway, and the police intercepted an Innova and found 638 kg of ganja hidden inside the vehicle. The drugs are estimated to be worth ₹2.04 crore in the illicit market.

The accused has been booked under relevant sections of the Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances (NDPS) Act. He was produced before a local court and has been remanded to police custody till January 3.

We suspect that an entire gang is operating in the region, and we will soon trace the remaining members- Amarsinh Jadhav

Amarsinh Jadhav, deputy commissioner of police (Crime), said , “Our team is investigating further to identify the source of the contraband and the individual to whom the consignment was to be delivered. We suspect that an entire gang is operating in the region, and we will soon trace the remaining members.”

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