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Have Big Powers pushed Ukraine to Disaster?

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Russia has declared war on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and is executing a plan meticulously prepared and war-games. NATO appears to have over-relied on the potency of its sanctions to deter Putin, which appears to be a major strategic error because it has not worked in the past and does not appear to be working now. Instead, it has emboldened Russian leadership’s resolve that NATO will be unable to respond to a quick offensive beyond condemnation, Ukraine’s capacity building, and sanctions on Russia.

It has pushed Ukraine to disaster, as its President’s loud demand to join NATO was neither acted upon by West, nor provided him any assurance that anyone else would do the heavy lifting or put boots on the ground in Ukraine to fight Russians, despite a massive military force imbalance in Russia’s favour.

Decoding Strategic and Military Action of Russia so far

The contours and logic of Russian plans were evident from its posturing over months, President Putin’s speeches to the nation and his demands made to Ukraine. The political aim of Russia seems to be to target Ukraine’s leadershipto give up demand of NATO membership, or else force a regime change, replacingit with a pro-Russian government not propagating NATO membership/agenda.

Strategically, the centre of gravity for the Russian offensive is the minds of Ukraine’s leadership and military to surrender to Russia with minimum militaryactions. This strategic goal cannot be realised without surrounding Kyiv, which is the key strategic objective; as a result, operations to encircle Kyiv and capture adjacent airbases have been launched. After Russia recognised the independence of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic, the liberation of the Donbas region was a foregone conclusion.

The military aim is to demilitarise Ukrainian military to ensure that Ukraine cannot be used as a springboard by NATO to threaten the security of Russia and isolate Kyiv to facilitate regime change without military interference. To shape the battlefield, Russian military postured three sides of Ukraine with massive combat superiority, used forces in Belarus to invade from the North to reach Kyiv via shortest route, used its Black Sea fleet and Crimea to blockade Ukraine from South, and forces in Donbas region to invade from east and some forces from northeast to expedite consolidation.

The military operations were preceded by cyber-attacks and information warfare. Military operations were launched in a well-planned and professional manner under the banner of ‘Special Operations,’ beginning with air and missile strikes to neutralise air defence capability, air assets to achieve air superiority, and pulverise military targets, claiming to have destroyed over 70 military targets and installations, including 11 airfields in Ukraine, before ground elements marched in, adding conventional superiority to upgrade its hybrid war.

NATO’s Response and Future Options

President Biden’s address on February 22, and statements of other western leaders, clearly indicated that NATO is not going to have boots on ground in Ukraine and will depend on financial sanctions and material support to Ukraine as response to Russian aggression.

This weakness emboldened Russia to seize opportunity for offensive into Ukraine with minimum military cost, so far. NATO is still unclear about further responses, as the Russian offensive is already underway; hence time for any possible military action by NATO is already over. NATO, therefore is only salvaging its own security by strengthening NATO countries bordering Ukraine/Russia to prevent any possibility of Russian adventurism into any of the NATO countries, leaving Ukraine to its fate, as it’s not a member of NATO as yet.

Likely Russian Action Ahead

Russia will try to achieve its strategic objectives as fast as possible and move out of Ukraine to minimise its cost. It will avoid fighting in built up areas, as it will prolong the invasion and may not remain as an occupational force to avoid backlash from a segment of hostile population turning into insurgency against it.

It will therefore try to maximise pressure on Ukraine by all instruments of power to submit to regime change or force it at the earliest and de-escalate. Notwithstanding what Russia wants, the resolve of Ukrainian military and leadership will determine the timeframe and escalation dynamics and the support of NATO to refuel resistance will determine the staying power. Russia is unlikely to make the mistake of annexing Ukraine, as it does not make sense in strategic cost benefit analysis. To build pressure for Ukraine to surrender, Russia may also take over some key strategic installations, till its strategic aims are achieved. It’s a harsh punishment for Ukraine’s uncomfortable geopolitical location and leadership’s desire to join NATO, which has thrust it into the centre of a “Big Power Contestation” that is going to be a tragedy for its people, in all contingencies.

Indian Response

The first priority for India should be to evacuate its own students and diaspora.It can push for diplomatic solutions and peaceful resolutions, as well as measures to reduce temperatures, but it should avoid taking sides because it has good connections with all of the opposing powers. While each country’s sovereignty must be maintained, both sides have rejected it when it has served their interests, as in the Iraq war, Crimea and Afghanistan.

India needs to factor the weak western response to Ukraine crisis in its strategic calculations, as it can embolden other authoritative powers like China to take similar actions in Indo-Pacific region.

(Major General S.B. Asthana is a strategic and security analyst, a veteran Infantry General. He is the Chief Instructor, United Service Institution of India. The views expressed are personal)

Crime

New India Cooperative Bank: Bollywood Actress Preity Zinta Received ₹1.5 Crore Loan Remission, Reveals EOW Probe

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Mumbai: Bollywood actress Preity Zinta received a loan remission by New India Cooperative Bank. The Economic Offences Wing (EOW) is looking into Hiren Bhanu, the former chairman of the bank, for allegedly approving loans in return for bribes, as per reports.

The investigation has revealed that the actress benefitted from a remission on her loan. The police said that on January 7, 2011, a loan of Rs. 18 crore was sanctioned to actress Preity Zinta. The loan was declared a Non-Performing Asset (NPA) on March 31, 2013. The amount was later settled at Rs. 10.74 crore, and a remission of Rs. 1.55 crore was granted to her. The amount was paid on April 5, 2014, according to a report by Media quoting an EOW officer.

In February, the Kerala Congress unit alleged that the bank had waived off a Rs 18 crore loan in exchange for Preity Zinta’s support for the BJP. In response, Zinta clarified that she had an overdraft facility with the bank over 12 years ago, which was fully repaid more than a decade ago. She stated that her account had been closed since then, refuting any claims that she benefited from the bank’s financial issues.

While replying to the post of the Congress Kerala, Actress stated “No I operate my social media accounts my self and shame on you for promoting FAKE NEWS ! No one wrote off anything or any loan for me. I’m shocked that a political party or their representative is promoting fake news & indulging in vile gossip & click baits using my name & images. For the record a loan was taken and FULLY PAID BACK – over 10 years ago. Hope this clarifies and helps so there are no misunderstandings in the future.”

The Economic Offences Wing (EOW) officer mentioned that they are reviewing the documents from the bank as part of their investigation.

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Crime

Kunal Kamra petitions Madras HC for transit anticipatory bail in controversial remarks case

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New Delhi, March 28: Stand-up comedian Kunal Kamra, who is facing multiple criminal cases over the “traitor” jibe towards Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, on Friday petitioned the Madras High Court seeking transit anticipatory bail.

Kamra’s plea was mentioned for urgent hearing before a bench of Justice Sunder Mohan, who assured to examine the matter later in the day.

Mumbai’s MIDC police station on Monday registered a Zero FIR against Kamra for cracking an allegedly objectionable joke during a stand-up comedy show.

The Khar Police booked Yuva Sena general secretary Rahool Kanal under various sections of the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita and the Maharashtra Police Act.

They also detained 20 Sena activists. Deputy Commissioner of Police, Zone 9, Dixit Gedam said two offences have been registered at Khar police station.

One is against Kamra for derogatory comments, while the other is against people who vandalised the Unicontinental hotel where the shoot of Kamra’s comedy show took place.

He further added that the investigation is underway. Shiv Sena has condemned the “distasteful and defamatory” remarks made by Kamra during his recent performance at the Habitat Comedy Club in Mumbai, where he performed a parody song targeting Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde.

Police have already booked Kamra under section 356(2) (defamation) of the BNS.

The Mumbai Police had served two summons to Kamra, who has not yet appeared to give his statement.

Meanwhile, the Maharashtra Legislative Council on Thursday accepted a privilege notice against Kamra and forwarded it to the Privileges Committee.

“I have accepted the notice of breach of privilege against Kunal Kamra and Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sushma Andhare and have sent it to Privilege Committee chairman Prasad Lad. The future course of action regarding the motion will be decided by the committee,” said Upper House Chairman Ram Shinde.

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Crime

Delhi Police file FIR against Arvind Kejriwal in Public Property Act violation case

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New Delhi, March 28: The Delhi Police has registered an FIR against Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) national convenor and former Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, along with other party leaders, for alleged violations of the Public Property Act.

The case is currently being heard in Rouse Avenue Court, with the next hearing scheduled for April 18.

The FIR was lodged following a directive from a Delhi court, which ordered the police to take action against Kejriwal and other leaders in response to a complaint filed by Shiv Kumar Saxena.

Saxena provided evidence in court alleging that large posters and banners of AAP were illegally put up in the Dwarka area.

Additional Chief Judicial Magistrate Neha Mittal, on March 11, issued the directive to file an FIR against Kejriwal and others regarding the defacement of public property following a complaint lodged by Saxena, who submitted visual proof of unauthorised banners displaying Kejriwal and other AAP leaders across the city.

Taking serious note of the issue, the court stated that such unauthorised hoardings not only diminish the city’s aesthetics but also pose a traffic hazard.

The case has been registered under Section 3 of the Delhi Prevention of Defacement of Property Act, 2007. The court emphasised that fatalities due to falling illegal hoardings have been reported in the past, making strict action necessary.

In addition to Kejriwal, the court also ordered the registration of an FIR against former MLA Gulab Singh and former councillor Nitika Sharma. The Delhi Police filed a compliance report in the Rouse Avenue Court, confirming the FIR’s registration.

The matter dates back to 2019, when large hoardings were allegedly erected in Dwarka, leading to accusations of misuse of public funds. A complaint was filed at the time, and now, with the court’s order, the police have initiated action.

The development has triggered a stir in political circles. While AAP has yet to issue an official statement on the matter, opposition parties have started targeting the party over the allegations.

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