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Have Big Powers pushed Ukraine to Disaster?

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Russia has declared war on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and is executing a plan meticulously prepared and war-games. NATO appears to have over-relied on the potency of its sanctions to deter Putin, which appears to be a major strategic error because it has not worked in the past and does not appear to be working now. Instead, it has emboldened Russian leadership’s resolve that NATO will be unable to respond to a quick offensive beyond condemnation, Ukraine’s capacity building, and sanctions on Russia.

It has pushed Ukraine to disaster, as its President’s loud demand to join NATO was neither acted upon by West, nor provided him any assurance that anyone else would do the heavy lifting or put boots on the ground in Ukraine to fight Russians, despite a massive military force imbalance in Russia’s favour.

Decoding Strategic and Military Action of Russia so far

The contours and logic of Russian plans were evident from its posturing over months, President Putin’s speeches to the nation and his demands made to Ukraine. The political aim of Russia seems to be to target Ukraine’s leadershipto give up demand of NATO membership, or else force a regime change, replacingit with a pro-Russian government not propagating NATO membership/agenda.

Strategically, the centre of gravity for the Russian offensive is the minds of Ukraine’s leadership and military to surrender to Russia with minimum militaryactions. This strategic goal cannot be realised without surrounding Kyiv, which is the key strategic objective; as a result, operations to encircle Kyiv and capture adjacent airbases have been launched. After Russia recognised the independence of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic, the liberation of the Donbas region was a foregone conclusion.

The military aim is to demilitarise Ukrainian military to ensure that Ukraine cannot be used as a springboard by NATO to threaten the security of Russia and isolate Kyiv to facilitate regime change without military interference. To shape the battlefield, Russian military postured three sides of Ukraine with massive combat superiority, used forces in Belarus to invade from the North to reach Kyiv via shortest route, used its Black Sea fleet and Crimea to blockade Ukraine from South, and forces in Donbas region to invade from east and some forces from northeast to expedite consolidation.

The military operations were preceded by cyber-attacks and information warfare. Military operations were launched in a well-planned and professional manner under the banner of ‘Special Operations,’ beginning with air and missile strikes to neutralise air defence capability, air assets to achieve air superiority, and pulverise military targets, claiming to have destroyed over 70 military targets and installations, including 11 airfields in Ukraine, before ground elements marched in, adding conventional superiority to upgrade its hybrid war.

NATO’s Response and Future Options

President Biden’s address on February 22, and statements of other western leaders, clearly indicated that NATO is not going to have boots on ground in Ukraine and will depend on financial sanctions and material support to Ukraine as response to Russian aggression.

This weakness emboldened Russia to seize opportunity for offensive into Ukraine with minimum military cost, so far. NATO is still unclear about further responses, as the Russian offensive is already underway; hence time for any possible military action by NATO is already over. NATO, therefore is only salvaging its own security by strengthening NATO countries bordering Ukraine/Russia to prevent any possibility of Russian adventurism into any of the NATO countries, leaving Ukraine to its fate, as it’s not a member of NATO as yet.

Likely Russian Action Ahead

Russia will try to achieve its strategic objectives as fast as possible and move out of Ukraine to minimise its cost. It will avoid fighting in built up areas, as it will prolong the invasion and may not remain as an occupational force to avoid backlash from a segment of hostile population turning into insurgency against it.

It will therefore try to maximise pressure on Ukraine by all instruments of power to submit to regime change or force it at the earliest and de-escalate. Notwithstanding what Russia wants, the resolve of Ukrainian military and leadership will determine the timeframe and escalation dynamics and the support of NATO to refuel resistance will determine the staying power. Russia is unlikely to make the mistake of annexing Ukraine, as it does not make sense in strategic cost benefit analysis. To build pressure for Ukraine to surrender, Russia may also take over some key strategic installations, till its strategic aims are achieved. It’s a harsh punishment for Ukraine’s uncomfortable geopolitical location and leadership’s desire to join NATO, which has thrust it into the centre of a “Big Power Contestation” that is going to be a tragedy for its people, in all contingencies.

Indian Response

The first priority for India should be to evacuate its own students and diaspora.It can push for diplomatic solutions and peaceful resolutions, as well as measures to reduce temperatures, but it should avoid taking sides because it has good connections with all of the opposing powers. While each country’s sovereignty must be maintained, both sides have rejected it when it has served their interests, as in the Iraq war, Crimea and Afghanistan.

India needs to factor the weak western response to Ukraine crisis in its strategic calculations, as it can embolden other authoritative powers like China to take similar actions in Indo-Pacific region.

(Major General S.B. Asthana is a strategic and security analyst, a veteran Infantry General. He is the Chief Instructor, United Service Institution of India. The views expressed are personal)

Crime

UP Shocker: Mother Of 5 Children Dies After Beaten Up By 24-Year-Old Lover Over Breakup In Noida

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A mother of five children died after her 24-year-old allegedly beaten her up following a heated argument over breakup on Monday in Noida. According to reports, the victim has been identified as Neeraj. The police registered a case of culpable homicide not amounting to murder and arrested the accused boyfriend.

According to police, woman’s husband Satish, originally a resident of village Hathni Gud in Badaun district, works in a private company. He lives on rent in a house located in Mamura village with his wife Neeraj and five children. Neeraj had an extramarital affair with Arjun, a resident of village Sahpur in Shahjahanpur district who lived in the neighbourhood, for the past three years.

Arjun worked as a housekeeper in a private company located in Sector-59. Husband Satish was unaware of their affair. Neeraj went to meet Arjun in his room in the neighbourhood on Monday evening around 6 PM. Here, a fight broke out between the two about breakup. After the argument, Arjun physically assaulted Neeraj. During this, Neeraj became unconscious and fell to the ground.

Panicked Arjun rushed her to a nearby hospital, from where the woman was referred to Kailash Hospital. Seeing no improvement in her condition, the woman was referred to the district hospital, where doctors declared her dead.

After being alerted, police arrived and sent the body for the post-mortem. They also took boyfriend Arjun into custody. Family members allege that Arjun murdered Neeraj by strangulation.

According to police, the woman had married Satish about 13 years ago. The couple has five children. To educate the children, Satish brought Neeraj from his ancestral village to Noida about five years ago. While living in lane number eight, Neeraj became friends with Arjun, who lived in the neighbourhood. Gradually, the friendship between the two turned into a love affair. Arjun is 24 years old and unmarried.

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Crime

Mumbai Shocker: Stepfather Arrested For Murder Of Missing 4-Year-Old Girl From Antop Hill; Body Found In Colaba

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Mumbai: In a chilling turn of events, the Mumbai Police on Tuesday arrested Imran Shaikh, the stepfather of four-year-old Amaira Shaikh, in connection with her murder. The child had gone missing from her residence in Antop Hill on the night of July 14 and her body was recovered from the Colaba sea coast the next morning.

Police Suspected Stepfather Over Girl’s Disappearance

Amaira was reported missing by her mother, Nazia, who had gone to the Antop Hill police station to lodge a complaint. However, as the investigation progressed, suspicion grew around Imran’s role in the child’s disappearance. Imran, also known as Immu, had taken Amaira with him the night she went missing and had been unreachable since, with his phone switched off.

Body Found Near Sassoon Dock

Amaira lived with her mother and stepfather in the Bengali Pura area of Rajiv Nagar in Antop Hill. Nazia, who has been previously married twice, was currently in her third marriage with Imran. On the night of July 14, after failing to locate Amaira despite searching extensively, Nazia approached the police. The next morning, Colaba police received an alert about a child’s body found floating near Sassoon Dock. The body, later confirmed to be Amaira’s, was sent to St. George Hospital for a post-mortem examination.

Initially, the Antop Hill police registered an Accidental Death Report (ADR), but with Imran absconding, suspicions deepened. Using physical identifiers from the missing person’s report, Colaba police confirmed the identity of the deceased. Cops now believe that Amaira may have been murdered and her body dumped into the sea.

Following this development, police intensified efforts to trace Imran. After going off the radar briefly, he was arrested on Tuesday. Authorities are now focusing on uncovering the motive behind the brutal crime and piecing together the exact sequence of events leading to the child’s death.

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Crime

‘Kicked, Punched’: Father-Son Duo Thrash Traffic Cops In Nallasopara After Being Asked For Driving Licence

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In a shocking incident on Monday morning, a father-son duo in Nallasopara East allegedly assaulted two traffic policemen in broad daylight after being stopped for driving without a valid license. The entire incident, which took place around 10 am near Sitara Bakery in Nagindas Pada, was caught on mobile cameras by bystanders.

According to the police, the boy was stopped during a routine check for not carrying a valid driver’s license. When questioned by constables Hanumant Sangle and Sheshnarayan Aathre, he reportedly called his father to the scene. The situation escalated quickly, with both the father and son allegedly verbally abusing and physically assaulting the two officers with kicks and fists.

The attackers have been identified as Mangesh Narkar and Parth Narkar, both residents of Nallasopara. Eyewitness footage shows the duo manhandling the police personnel in full public view, drawing strong reactions on social media.

The Tulinj Police are currently investigating the case. An FIR is expected to be registered under relevant sections of the Indian Penal Code, including assault on public servants and obstruction of duty. Officials confirmed that a legal process is underway and the footage is being reviewed as part of the probe.

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