Crime
Have Big Powers pushed Ukraine to Disaster?

Russia has declared war on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and is executing a plan meticulously prepared and war-games. NATO appears to have over-relied on the potency of its sanctions to deter Putin, which appears to be a major strategic error because it has not worked in the past and does not appear to be working now. Instead, it has emboldened Russian leadership’s resolve that NATO will be unable to respond to a quick offensive beyond condemnation, Ukraine’s capacity building, and sanctions on Russia.
It has pushed Ukraine to disaster, as its President’s loud demand to join NATO was neither acted upon by West, nor provided him any assurance that anyone else would do the heavy lifting or put boots on the ground in Ukraine to fight Russians, despite a massive military force imbalance in Russia’s favour.
Decoding Strategic and Military Action of Russia so far
The contours and logic of Russian plans were evident from its posturing over months, President Putin’s speeches to the nation and his demands made to Ukraine. The political aim of Russia seems to be to target Ukraine’s leadershipto give up demand of NATO membership, or else force a regime change, replacingit with a pro-Russian government not propagating NATO membership/agenda.
Strategically, the centre of gravity for the Russian offensive is the minds of Ukraine’s leadership and military to surrender to Russia with minimum militaryactions. This strategic goal cannot be realised without surrounding Kyiv, which is the key strategic objective; as a result, operations to encircle Kyiv and capture adjacent airbases have been launched. After Russia recognised the independence of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic, the liberation of the Donbas region was a foregone conclusion.
The military aim is to demilitarise Ukrainian military to ensure that Ukraine cannot be used as a springboard by NATO to threaten the security of Russia and isolate Kyiv to facilitate regime change without military interference. To shape the battlefield, Russian military postured three sides of Ukraine with massive combat superiority, used forces in Belarus to invade from the North to reach Kyiv via shortest route, used its Black Sea fleet and Crimea to blockade Ukraine from South, and forces in Donbas region to invade from east and some forces from northeast to expedite consolidation.
The military operations were preceded by cyber-attacks and information warfare. Military operations were launched in a well-planned and professional manner under the banner of ‘Special Operations,’ beginning with air and missile strikes to neutralise air defence capability, air assets to achieve air superiority, and pulverise military targets, claiming to have destroyed over 70 military targets and installations, including 11 airfields in Ukraine, before ground elements marched in, adding conventional superiority to upgrade its hybrid war.
NATO’s Response and Future Options
President Biden’s address on February 22, and statements of other western leaders, clearly indicated that NATO is not going to have boots on ground in Ukraine and will depend on financial sanctions and material support to Ukraine as response to Russian aggression.
This weakness emboldened Russia to seize opportunity for offensive into Ukraine with minimum military cost, so far. NATO is still unclear about further responses, as the Russian offensive is already underway; hence time for any possible military action by NATO is already over. NATO, therefore is only salvaging its own security by strengthening NATO countries bordering Ukraine/Russia to prevent any possibility of Russian adventurism into any of the NATO countries, leaving Ukraine to its fate, as it’s not a member of NATO as yet.
Likely Russian Action Ahead
Russia will try to achieve its strategic objectives as fast as possible and move out of Ukraine to minimise its cost. It will avoid fighting in built up areas, as it will prolong the invasion and may not remain as an occupational force to avoid backlash from a segment of hostile population turning into insurgency against it.
It will therefore try to maximise pressure on Ukraine by all instruments of power to submit to regime change or force it at the earliest and de-escalate. Notwithstanding what Russia wants, the resolve of Ukrainian military and leadership will determine the timeframe and escalation dynamics and the support of NATO to refuel resistance will determine the staying power. Russia is unlikely to make the mistake of annexing Ukraine, as it does not make sense in strategic cost benefit analysis. To build pressure for Ukraine to surrender, Russia may also take over some key strategic installations, till its strategic aims are achieved. It’s a harsh punishment for Ukraine’s uncomfortable geopolitical location and leadership’s desire to join NATO, which has thrust it into the centre of a “Big Power Contestation” that is going to be a tragedy for its people, in all contingencies.
Indian Response
The first priority for India should be to evacuate its own students and diaspora.It can push for diplomatic solutions and peaceful resolutions, as well as measures to reduce temperatures, but it should avoid taking sides because it has good connections with all of the opposing powers. While each country’s sovereignty must be maintained, both sides have rejected it when it has served their interests, as in the Iraq war, Crimea and Afghanistan.
India needs to factor the weak western response to Ukraine crisis in its strategic calculations, as it can embolden other authoritative powers like China to take similar actions in Indo-Pacific region.
(Major General S.B. Asthana is a strategic and security analyst, a veteran Infantry General. He is the Chief Instructor, United Service Institution of India. The views expressed are personal)
Crime
Accused in air hostess sexual assault case was porn addict: Gurugram Police

Gurugram, April 19: Gurugram Police said on Saturday that the accused in the air hostess sexual assault case was a porn addict, an official said.
Gurugram Police Spokesperson Sandeep Kumar said that the accused used to watch porn videos habitually, which was also confirmed from the mobile phone recovered from him.
He said that during police interrogation, it was found that the accused has a B.Sc. (OT) degree from a private institute from the years 2019-2022, and he was an average student in studies.
“For the last five months, he was working as a treatment machine technician in the ICU of the hospital. The accused going to the victim at the time of the incident was confirmed from the CCTV cameras installed in the hospital,” he said.
The Spokesperson said that during interrogation of the accused, it was also found that he had watched porn videos before the incident and even after committing the crime.
“Which is also being confirmed from the search history of the accused’s mobile phone. He was produced before the court on Saturday, from where he was sent to judicial custody for further proceedings,” he said.
Meanwhile, the SIT on Friday nabbed the accused, after analysing at least 800 CCTV cameras installed inside and outside of the hospital, who sexually assaulted the woman when she was on a ventilator.
The accused was identified as Deepak (25), a native of Muzaffarpur in Bihar. The accused had been working as a treatment machine technician in the ICU of the hospital for the past five months and was arrested in the Sadar police station area on Friday.
An official privy to the investigation said that the accused has confessed to his crime in the matter.
“While investigating the incident, eight police teams checked the footage of 800 CCTV cameras installed in the hospital, and around 50 hospital staff, including doctors, were questioned about the incident. Keeping in mind the seriousness of the incident, the police teams investigated from every angle and collected a lot of information related to the incident, as a result of which the police got great success in identifying the accused who committed the crime,” said Arpit Jain, DCP (Headquarters).
On Thursday, Vikas Kumar Arora, Commissioner of Police, Gurugram, had constituted an SIT and ordered the identification and arrest of the accused.
As per the order of the Police Commissioner, an SIT was constituted under the leadership of Arpit Jain, Deputy Commissioner of Police, Headquarters, Gurugram, in which a total of eight different police teams were given special directions and deployed to collect information and evidence related to the incident.
Dr. Sanjay Durani, Medical Superintendent of the hospital, said in a statement that: “We have been informed that the police have identified a suspect who has been taken into custody in connection with the ongoing investigation concerning allegations of sexual assault on a patient. On the basis of information provided to us by the police, we have suspended the suspect employee. As we await the final outcome of the investigation, we will continue to provide full support to the police.”
Crime
Manipur govt launches verification of papers of arms license holders

Imphal, April 19: The Manipur government has launched a drive to verify the licensed arms and asked all the district administrations to examine the papers of the arms license holders and arms dealers, officials said on Saturday.
A senior official said that the Commissioner (Home) has, in an urgent circular, asked the Deputy Commissioners of all 16 districts to take steps to verify the papers of arms license holders and arms dealers in their respective districts.
Accordingly, all the Deputy Commissioners directed the arms license holders and arms dealers to submit their papers in their nearest or respective police stations on or before April 25.
“Non-compliance with the orders may lead to penalisation and cancellation of arms license,” the official said, referring to the circular of the Commissioner (Home). Till March 6, around 1,000 looted and illegally held weapons, including many sophisticated arms, and a huge cache of ammunition, have been returned to the security forces since Manipur Governor Ajay Kumar Bhalla appealed for the first time on February 20.
The initiative to recover the looted and illegally held arms began on May 31, 2023, when former Chief Minister N. Biren Singh made an appeal to all concerned to surrender the firearms looted from security forces and police armouries.
Officials said that before Singh’s resignation as Chief Minister on February 9, a total of 3,422 firearms had been voluntarily surrendered to the authorities and police stations in different districts.
Various official reports, political parties claimed that during the ethnic riots, which broke out in Manipur on May 3, 2023, over 6,020 varied types of sophisticated arms and lakhs of different types of ammunition were looted from the police stations and police outposts by the mobs, attackers and militants.
Crime
Put under house arrest again, says Mirwaiz Umar Farooq

Srinagar, April 18: Senior religious and Huriyat Conference (HC) Chairman, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, said on Friday that authorities have placed him under house arrest, thereby denying him the right to offer congregational prayers during the day.
Mirwaiz Farooq said on X, “Every Friday I am put under arbitrary house arrest ! Putting pressure on me not to speak up, the ban also aims to weaken the centrality of Muslim institutions of the valley-the Jama Masjid, office of the Mirwaiz, and cause collective grief to Muslims and all those who oppose this authoritarian and sectarian outlook. My house detention case is still pending in court, where I am seeking relief from the Hon’ble High Court, but In such times patience remains our only strength.”
Mirwaiz traditionally delivers the Friday sermon at the Jamia Masjid in the Nowhatta area of old Srinagar city. He also heads the Anjuman-e-Nusratul Islam, a religious organisation that runs some educational institutions in Kashmir, including the Islamia High School in Rajouri Kadal area of Srinagar.
The Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) last month declared the Mirwaiz-headed Awami Action Committee (ACC) a banned organisation for five years. The ACC was formed in 1963 during the Holy Relic agitation by Mirwaiz Maulana Mohammad Farooq. After the elder Mirwaiz was assassinated in 1990 by the terrorists, the ACC came to be headed by his son, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq.
The MHA order said that the ACC has been encouraging youth to violence and is acting in a manner prejudicial to the interests of the state.
Mirwaiz Farooq, who is the chairman of the Hurriyat Conference, has witnessed the desertion of several affiliates. As many as 12 Hurriyat-linked organisations have broken off from secessionism, reposing trust in the Constitution of India.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah has said that “separatism has become history in Kashmir”, and the unifying policies of the Modi government have eliminated separatism in J&K. He has also said this is a victory of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision for ‘Ek Bharat Shreshtha Bharat’.
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