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Have Big Powers pushed Ukraine to Disaster?

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Russia has declared war on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and is executing a plan meticulously prepared and war-games. NATO appears to have over-relied on the potency of its sanctions to deter Putin, which appears to be a major strategic error because it has not worked in the past and does not appear to be working now. Instead, it has emboldened Russian leadership’s resolve that NATO will be unable to respond to a quick offensive beyond condemnation, Ukraine’s capacity building, and sanctions on Russia.

It has pushed Ukraine to disaster, as its President’s loud demand to join NATO was neither acted upon by West, nor provided him any assurance that anyone else would do the heavy lifting or put boots on the ground in Ukraine to fight Russians, despite a massive military force imbalance in Russia’s favour.

Decoding Strategic and Military Action of Russia so far

The contours and logic of Russian plans were evident from its posturing over months, President Putin’s speeches to the nation and his demands made to Ukraine. The political aim of Russia seems to be to target Ukraine’s leadershipto give up demand of NATO membership, or else force a regime change, replacingit with a pro-Russian government not propagating NATO membership/agenda.

Strategically, the centre of gravity for the Russian offensive is the minds of Ukraine’s leadership and military to surrender to Russia with minimum militaryactions. This strategic goal cannot be realised without surrounding Kyiv, which is the key strategic objective; as a result, operations to encircle Kyiv and capture adjacent airbases have been launched. After Russia recognised the independence of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic, the liberation of the Donbas region was a foregone conclusion.

The military aim is to demilitarise Ukrainian military to ensure that Ukraine cannot be used as a springboard by NATO to threaten the security of Russia and isolate Kyiv to facilitate regime change without military interference. To shape the battlefield, Russian military postured three sides of Ukraine with massive combat superiority, used forces in Belarus to invade from the North to reach Kyiv via shortest route, used its Black Sea fleet and Crimea to blockade Ukraine from South, and forces in Donbas region to invade from east and some forces from northeast to expedite consolidation.

The military operations were preceded by cyber-attacks and information warfare. Military operations were launched in a well-planned and professional manner under the banner of ‘Special Operations,’ beginning with air and missile strikes to neutralise air defence capability, air assets to achieve air superiority, and pulverise military targets, claiming to have destroyed over 70 military targets and installations, including 11 airfields in Ukraine, before ground elements marched in, adding conventional superiority to upgrade its hybrid war.

NATO’s Response and Future Options

President Biden’s address on February 22, and statements of other western leaders, clearly indicated that NATO is not going to have boots on ground in Ukraine and will depend on financial sanctions and material support to Ukraine as response to Russian aggression.

This weakness emboldened Russia to seize opportunity for offensive into Ukraine with minimum military cost, so far. NATO is still unclear about further responses, as the Russian offensive is already underway; hence time for any possible military action by NATO is already over. NATO, therefore is only salvaging its own security by strengthening NATO countries bordering Ukraine/Russia to prevent any possibility of Russian adventurism into any of the NATO countries, leaving Ukraine to its fate, as it’s not a member of NATO as yet.

Likely Russian Action Ahead

Russia will try to achieve its strategic objectives as fast as possible and move out of Ukraine to minimise its cost. It will avoid fighting in built up areas, as it will prolong the invasion and may not remain as an occupational force to avoid backlash from a segment of hostile population turning into insurgency against it.

It will therefore try to maximise pressure on Ukraine by all instruments of power to submit to regime change or force it at the earliest and de-escalate. Notwithstanding what Russia wants, the resolve of Ukrainian military and leadership will determine the timeframe and escalation dynamics and the support of NATO to refuel resistance will determine the staying power. Russia is unlikely to make the mistake of annexing Ukraine, as it does not make sense in strategic cost benefit analysis. To build pressure for Ukraine to surrender, Russia may also take over some key strategic installations, till its strategic aims are achieved. It’s a harsh punishment for Ukraine’s uncomfortable geopolitical location and leadership’s desire to join NATO, which has thrust it into the centre of a “Big Power Contestation” that is going to be a tragedy for its people, in all contingencies.

Indian Response

The first priority for India should be to evacuate its own students and diaspora.It can push for diplomatic solutions and peaceful resolutions, as well as measures to reduce temperatures, but it should avoid taking sides because it has good connections with all of the opposing powers. While each country’s sovereignty must be maintained, both sides have rejected it when it has served their interests, as in the Iraq war, Crimea and Afghanistan.

India needs to factor the weak western response to Ukraine crisis in its strategic calculations, as it can embolden other authoritative powers like China to take similar actions in Indo-Pacific region.

(Major General S.B. Asthana is a strategic and security analyst, a veteran Infantry General. He is the Chief Instructor, United Service Institution of India. The views expressed are personal)

Crime

Parents of Kolkata law college rape victim should be ready for long battle like us: RG Kar victim’s parents

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Kolkata, June 28: In the midst of the outrage and politics over the rape of a woman in a Kolkata law college, the parents of the R.G. Kar Medical College and Hospital rape and murder victim stated on Saturday that the law student’s parents should also be ready to fight a protracted legal battle.

Their comments came days after a Kolkata-based law college student became a victim of rape within the college premises on June 25 evening.

They stated that the woman’s parents should also be ready for a long battle considering the influential backing enjoyed by the three accused in the case.

The mother of the junior doctor who became a victim of a ghastly rape and murder in August last year, expressed apprehension that like the case of her daughter, there might be attempts to protect the accused in the law college rape case also in the due course.

Hence, they feel that what is required now is a mass movement exactly in line with what happened after the heinous crime with their daughter.

“What is even more shocking is that even after the tragedy with my daughter, there was not enough initiative to ensure the safety of women within educational institutions where they study. The administration and ruling party are now trying to shy away from their responsibilities over the crime in the law college rape. It is natural. But the reality is that the influential backing that the accused persons enjoyed gave them the courage to conduct such a heinous crime within the college premises,” the R.G Kar victim’s mother said.

The father of the R.G. Kar victim said that he fears that like the case of his daughter, there might be attempts by influential people and even a section within the administration to protect the accused.

“So I also feel that the parents of the victim in the law college case should also be prepared for a long battle like us. They should understand that the administration will not do anything and they will have to fight their own battle as we have been doing. What the victim’s parents need now is the spontaneous public support which we have received,” he said.

All the three accused in the case, namely Monojit Mishra, Zaib Ahmed, and Pramit Mukhopadhyay were linked to Trinamool Congress’ students’ wing Trinamool Chhatra Parishad (TMCP).

Pictures of Mishra with different top and heavyweight Trinamool Congress leaders have already flooded social media. While Mishra is a former student of the same law college, the other two are existing students.

All three of them, on Friday, were remanded to police custody till July 1.

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25 prison officials in Punjab suspended in crackdown against drug networks

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Chandigarh, June 28: In a major action against corruption and drug networks in prisons, the Punjab government on Saturday said it has suspended 25 officials, including three Deputy Superintendents and two Assistant Superintendents.

The government said the action is part of the drive to root out corruption and dismantle drug networks operating inside prisons.

“Following reports of irregularities and drug-related activities within jails, the government said the action was to end corruption and drug networks. The big action was taken as per information received about corruption and drug networks in jails,” the government said in a statement.

In March, the government shifted notorious jailed gangster Jaggu Bhagwanpuria from the high-security Bathinda Central Jail to Silchar Jail in Assam as authorities suspected that detained gangsters were running drug syndicates from Punjab’s prisons.

The Narcotics Control Bureau (NCB) had arrested Bhagwanpuria, also an accused in the killing of Punjabi singer Sidhu Moosewala, under the Prevention of Illicit Traffic in Narcotics and Psychotropic Substances (PIT NDPS) Act.

Bhagwanpuria, against whom 128 FIRs have been registered in Punjab and other states, was arrested in a murder case in 2015 and, since then, has been lodged in several jails, previously in Punjab.

In the singer Moosewala’s murder case, it was Bhagwanpuria and gangster Lawrence Bishnoi who had hatched a conspiracy to kill him.

However, later, both fell apart. Bhagwanpuria, a native of Gurdaspur district, is considered the most dreaded gangster of Punjab after Bishnoi and has more than five cases under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) for hatching conspiracies to disturb communal harmony in Punjab.

Bhagwanpuria is facing 15 cases of arms and drug smuggling. On his shifting to Assam, the NCB had said then that Bhagwanpuria was moved out of Punjab as he had “established linkages” with international operatives in Canada, the US and Pakistan. His relocation was a must to disrupt the ecosystem, facilitating continued criminal activities, it added.

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Crime

Mere recovery of blood-stained weapon matching deceased’s blood group not sufficient to prove murder: SC

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suprim court

New Delhi, June 27: Upholding the acquittal of an accused, the Supreme Court has ruled that mere recovery of a blood-stained weapon bearing the same blood group as that of the deceased would not be sufficient to prove the charge of murder.

A bench of Justices Sandeep Mehta and P.B. Varale was dealing with a criminal appeal filed by the Rajasthan government challenging a judgment of the Rajasthan High Court, which had acquitted the respondent-accused of the offence of murder.

In its impugned order, a division bench set aside the judgment passed by the Additional Sessions Judge in December 2008, which had convicted the respondent for the offence punishable under Section 302 of the Indian Penal Code, 1860 and sentenced him to undergo life imprisonment and pay a fine of Rs 100, and in default of payment of fine, to further undergo 3 months simple imprisonment.

During the trial, the respondent was charged with the murder of Chotu Lal, which took place on the intervening night of March 1 and 2, 2007.

Initially, an FIR was filed against unknown assailants, and at a later stage, the respondent was arraigned in the case on the basis of suspicion and circumstantial evidence.

The prosecution led circumstantial evidence in the form of motive, alleging the respondent was having an evil eye on the wife of the deceased; recovery of the weapon of offence and the FSL report indicating that the blood group on the weapon matched with the blood group of the deceased (B +ve).

Contrary to the findings of the trial court, the Rajasthan High Court opined that the prosecution could not prove the complete chain of circumstances required to bring home the guilt of the accused in the case, which was based entirely on circumstantial evidence, and proceeded to acquit the respondent.

Concurring with the view taken by the Rajasthan HC, the Justice Mehta-led Bench said: “We find that the incriminating circumstances relied upon by the prosecution, i.e., the motive and the recovery of the blood stained weapon, even taken in conjunction cannot constitute the complete chain of incriminating circumstances required to bring home the charges against the accused.”

“The High Court seems to have overlooked the FSL report, which fact was stressed upon by learned counsel for the appellant (state government). However, in our view, even if the FSL report is taken into account, then also, other than the fact that the weapon recovered at the instance of the accused tested positive for the same blood group as that of the deceased (B +ve), nothing much turns on the said report,” it added.

The apex court, relying upon a previous judgment of the apex court, opined that mere recovery of a blood-stained weapon even bearing the same blood group of the victim would not be sufficient to prove the charge of murder.

It discarded the theory of motive, saying the evidence in that regard seems to be very vague and vacillating.

The Justice Mehta-led Bench added that the law is well settled by a catena of apex court decisions that in an appeal against acquittal, interference can only be made if the only possible view based on the evidence points to the guilt of the accused and rules out his innocence.

Dismissing the appeal of the state government, the Supreme Court said: “In the present case, we are duly satisfied that the prosecution failed to lead clinching evidence to bring home the charges. The only possible view is the one taken by the High Court, i.e., the innocence of the accused.”

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