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Govt may not need special borrowing window for GST compensation to states

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The government may not need to open special borrowing window to meet GST compensation needs of states in the current financial year as rising indirect tax collections on economic recovery has given confidence that the Centre may meet its tax liability through estimated buffets in its finances.

The Centre has estimated GST compensation shortfall to states at Rs 1.59 lakh crore for FY22. Out of this, Rs 75,000 crore has already been released as first instalment through regular central borrowings.

“With GST revenue holding up over Rs 1 lakh crore mark, the collections would now need to be Rs 1.18 lakh crore in the balance months of FY22. This is likely with expectation that overall GST collection may be higher than estimated Rs 14.1 lakh crore. This would provide enough room to the government to meet compensation meters of states through its regular borrowing channel,” said an official not willing to be named.

The Centre opened a special borrowing window last year to meet the estimated shortfall of Rs 1.1 lakh crocre in revenue arising on account of implementation of GST.

According to an assessment made by Kotak Institutional Equities there is an upside to the budgeted CGST receipts this year now and shortfall on SGST collections are expected to be marginally lower than earlier anticipated. So, the expected shortfall in GST compensation may be lower and there is high probability that this will not be financed through market borrowings in 2HFY22, the brokerage said.

The government finances are also on sound footing this year and the impact of the second wave in activity and tax collections has been rather muted. Gross tax revenues in 4MFY22 grew 83 per cent while the net tax collections surged by 161 per cent (largely reflecting sharp surge in excise duty receipts). The net tax collection was at 34 per cent of FY2022BE.

Given the limited dent to economic activity and tax collections due to the second wave, we remain optimistic on the ability of the center to deliver a lower GFD/GDP at 6.4 per cent in FY2022E (6.8 per cent in FY2022BE), KIE said.

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Gold and silver prices slide as Trump signals easing US-Iran tensions

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Mumbai, May 4: Gold and silver prices declined up to 1 per cent on Monday amid signs of easing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, following remarks by US President Donald Trump.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold contracts for June 5 opened at Rs 1,51,150, down Rs 382 or 0.25 per cent from the previous close of Rs 1,51,532.

At around 11.30 a.m., gold was trading at Rs 1,50,623, lower by Rs 729 or 0.48 per cent. The yellow metal touched an intraday low of Rs 1,50,400, a decline of 0.62 per cent or Rs 952, and an intraday high of Rs 1,51,347.

On the other hand, silver contracts for July 3 opened at Rs 2,50,699, down Rs 238 or 0.09 per cent compared to the previous close of Rs 2,50,937. The white metal was trading at Rs 2,49,600, down Rs 1,337 or 0.53 per cent.

So far in the session, silver futures hit a low of Rs 2,49,600, a decrease of 1.05 per cent or Rs 2,599, and a high of Rs 2,51,231.

Meanwhile, in the international market, both precious metals remained under pressure. COMEX gold was down 0.55 per cent at $4,619 per ounce, while silver declined 0.48 per cent to $76.065 per ounce.

A commodity market expert said gold prices extended last week’s decline, hovering near one-month lows, as a stronger dollar and elevated crude oil prices weighed on sentiment.

The expert further noted that while easing US-Iran tensions reduced some safe-haven demand, supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz continued to fuel inflation concerns, prompting a cautiously hawkish stance from major central banks, which also weighed on bullion.

US President Donald Trump said the United States would initiate efforts to help vessels stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, describing the move as a humanitarian gesture aimed at assisting neutral countries not involved in the ongoing US-Iran conflict.

According to Trump, Washington would launch ‘Project Freedom’ to guide the stranded ships and their crews safely through the route.

However, he warned that Iran would face a strong response if any threat emerged.

In addition, crude oil prices declined sharply.

Brent crude fell 0.61 per cent to $107.51 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 2.77 per cent to $99.11 a barrel.

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OPEC+ agrees to oil output quota hike amid Hormuz blockade, Kuwait oil exports zero

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New Delhi, May 3: Amid the ongoing West Asia conflict, OPEC+ countries have agreed in principle to raise oil output targets in June.

Multiple reports say that seven OPEC+ countries have agreed to raise oil output targets by about 188,000 barrels per day next month. The output hike would rather be largely symbolic until Strait of Hormuz reopens.

This will be the third consecutive monthly increase amid the geopolitical crisis and the departure of the UAE from the group.

With the UAE leaving, OPEC+ includes 21 members, including Iran.

However, only the seven nations (and the UAE) have been involved in monthly production decisions. Iran, also an OPEC+ member, has seen its own exports dwindle amid the blockade.

Crude oil output from all OPEC+ members averaged 35.06 million bpd in March, down 7.70 million bpd from February.

Last week, the UAE announced it was leaving the OPEC and OPEC+ cartels in what is seen as a major setback to the group of oil-exporting countries led by Saudi Arabia. The UAE said the decision reflected its “long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile”.

The exit of the UAE is expected to weaken the oil cartel at a time when the Persian Gulf countries have taken a huge hit to their exports due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by an embattled Iran. The UAE accounts for around 15 per cent of the OPEC oil exports.

Reports also surfaced that Kuwait exported zero barrels of crude oil in April, a situation not seen since the 1991 Iraqi occupation, due to blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Kuwait Petroleum Corp declared force majeure, impacting around 2 million barrels per day. The blockade has led to a complete disruption in Kuwaiti exports.

Meanwhile, oil prices dropped after reports said Iran proposed fresh talks with the United States using Pakistan as a mediator.

West Texas Intermediate fell more than five per cent and dropped below $100 per barrel. It later recovered to $101.7.

Brent crude also fell more than three per cent to $106.98 before rising again to $108.4.

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Gold dips 0.81 pc this week over waning hopes of Fed rate cuts

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New Delhi, Gold prices dipped 0.81 per cent during the week as negotiations between the United States and Iran stalled, denting hopes for near‑term interest‑rate cuts.

On Friday, MCX gold June futures gained 0.01 per cent while MCX silver May futures inched up 0.49 per cent. Currently, gold futures stand at Rs 1,51,363, while silver futures stand at Rs 2,47,500 per kg.

The price of 10 grams of 24-carat gold was at Rs 1,50,263 on Thursday, down from Rs 1,51,495 seen on Monday market opening, according to data published by the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA).

In international markets, bullion dropped as much as 1.2 per cent on Friday after gaining 1.5 per cent in the previous session, weighed down by rising energy costs and firmer Treasury yields. Gold has fallen nearly 14 per cent since the US-Iran conflict began on February 28, 2026, traders said.

The Iranian administration maintained that the US blockade would have to end before the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened, according to multiple media reports. Iranian state media said that Tehran had delivered a fresh proposal for talks to Pakistani mediators, but both sides signalled they were waiting for the other to make the first move.

“While diplomatic engagements remained active, the absence of a decisive breakthrough kept the geopolitical risk premium firmly embedded in prices,” an analyst said.

US inflation data showed the headline PCE price index at 3.5 per cent in March, at its highest level in nearly three years, reinforcing the view that policy rates may stay higher for longer.

Analysts said that rising energy prices could lead to central banks maintaining interest rates higher for longer, which would pressure non-yielding assets like gold.

Crude oil traded with heightened volatility through the week but retained a firm undertone, holding near elevated levels as concerns around potential supply disruptions persisted. The market continues to price in risks to global oil flows, limiting meaningful downside and providing support on dips.

Precious metals entered a phase of corrective consolidation following their recent safe-haven rally, analysts said.

Gold and silver witnessed intermittent profit booking at higher levels through the week, while selective buying interest emerged near key support zones. Safe-haven demand has eased marginally but continues to lend support on declines amid lingering uncertainty.

COMEX gold traded near the $4,620–$4,650 zone, and a major resistance is seen at the $4,700–$4,760 levels. Overall, the trend remains constructive with a cautious near-term bias, with strength dependent on a breakout above resistance.

COMEX Silver is currently trading above $76, and the broader trend remains constructive but with a cautious near-term bias, market participants said.

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