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Gold, silver rally to 10% gains this year

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Safe haven assets, especially gold and silver have seen a fantastic rally since the start of this year, positing 10 per cent year to date (YTD) gains, Motilal Oswal Financial Services said in a report.

It probably is the year of safe havens, as along with global growth slowdown, geo-political uncertainties, there are also expectations regarding slower interest rate hikes which really is a positive scenario for gold prices, the report said.

Demand and supply factors historically have not directly made a big impact on gold prices, and especially in a scenario where there are more overpowering uncertainties present in market.

Gold prices have posted a sharp rally over the last couple of months, hence some ease off could be warranted.

Gold’s demand seldom disappoints the market, however things are little different on domestic front this time around due to some slowdown in the physical market, primarily amidst recent changes in customs duty to 15 per cent (including cess) for gold last year and for silver this year.

India in 2021 imported 1,050 tonnes gold, in 2022 it imported 705 tonnes of gold, on other hand, silver import number surprised everyone in 2022, which were to the tune of 9,500 tonnes.

Amidst higher prices, there is some resilience in the physical market with respect to gold buying. On the domestic front, gold ETF has witnessed good traction with the Total AUM of major fund houses going above Rs 17,000 crore.

Also giving a boost to the overall demand is the Central Bank gold buying spree which is rising with a consistent pace, since the last 10 years, major central banker have been net buyers.

According to WGC, current scale of central bank buying is massive — an annualised rate of 1,724 tonnes vs an average of 512 tonnes over the past decade, the report said.

The triggers which are supporting the market are geo-political tensions in Russia/Ukraine, China/Taiwan.

Russian-Ukraine concerns set a positive tone for safe haven assets, and to top up, Finland was granted admission in NATO, which doubled their borders and increased threat for Russia increasing uncertainties.

One more uncertainty that “probably” was short lived is the US banking concerns, wherein SVB and Credit Suisse led fiasco created panic in the market and increased gold and silver’s safe haven appeal, the report said.

Business

Court set to begin hearing in Jane Street-SEBI case

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New Delhi, Sep 9: A three-member bench of the Securities Appellate Tribunal (SAT) was set to begin hearing on Tuesday in a case between US trading company Jane Street Group LLC and capital markets regulator, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI).

The New York-based firm has challenged SEBI’s July interim order that accused it of manipulative trading in India’s equity derivatives market.

Jane Street argued that the regulator denied it access to crucial documents, including correspondence with whistleblower Mayank Bansal and the National Stock Exchange (NSE). It has asked the tribunal to halt further regulatory action until the appeal is resolved.

Jane Street maintained that both SEBI and the NSE previously reviewed its trades and found no evidence of manipulation. SEBI, however, could argue that those reviews are independent of its decision to open a fresh probe.

Jane Street has been barred by the SEBI from the Indian stock market for indulging in manipulative trading practices that allegedly enabled the company to make unlawful profits.

In an interim order, the SEBI alleged that global trading firm Jane Street was deliberately manipulating the index through a series of trades that it said lacked “plausible economic rationale.”

SEBI called it a case of “intra-day index manipulation,” flagging what it described as aggressive, unhedged positions in Nifty Bank options and other instruments.

India has become the world’s largest derivatives market by contracts traded, drawing Wall Street players such as Jump Trading, Citadel Securities and IMC Trading.

A SEBI study had earlier showed that retail investors lost $12 billion in futures and options trading during FY25, largely to sophisticated proprietary trading firms.

Jane Street is a proprietary trading firm, which means it trades with its own capital rather than managing client funds. The firm allegedly made a staggering Rs 32,681 crore in profits by manipulating the Indian stock market and repatriating the amount overseas.

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Sensex up 350 points, Nifty above 24,850; IT stocks lead rally

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Mumbai, Sep 9: The Indian benchmark indices opened higher on Tuesday, with Nifty IT index leading the rally with 1.7 per cent surge in the early trade.

At 9.23 am, Sensex was up 355 points or 0.44 per cent, at 81,142 and Nifty was up 99 points or 0.40 per cent, at 24,873.

The broadcap indices stayed flat, as Nifty Midcap 100 inched up by 0.05 per cent, and the Nifty Small cap 100 dipped 0.01 per cent.

Nifty IT advanced on the back of strong gains by Infosys (up 3.35 per cent) as the company had announced that it will consider a buyback of shares along with its results next month. IT company Wipro also advanced 2.36 per cent.

Tech Mahindra, TCS, Bajaj Finserv were other major gainers in the Nifty pack. Major losers were Titan Company, Shriram Finance, ICICI Bank, Tata Consumer and Tata Motors.

Among sectoral indices, apart from Nifty IT, the top gainer, Nifty pharma (up 0.47 per cent) and Nifty Auto (up 0.21 per cent) were in green. Many other indices made marginal losses.

Analysts said that Nifty index had formed a small red candle with a long upper shadow on the daily chart, highlighting consolidation and volatility.

“While buying interest is visible at lower levels, the 24,900–25,000 zones remains a stiff hurdle. Support is placed at 24,620, and as long as Nifty trades below 25,000, some consolidation or mild weakness may persist,” they noted.

“Upside momentum vanished on test of 24,870, which we had pencilled in as a critical pivot yesterday. Though the turn lower thereof was abrupt and steep, oscillators remain accommodative towards further upsides. We will look for a close beyond the 24,730-870 for further clarity,” said Anand James, Chief Market Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.

The US markets ended in the green zone overnight as the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up 0.25 per cent, while the Nasdaq advanced by 0.45 per cent and the S&P 500 gained 0.21 per cent.

In the US, investors are now awaiting two key inflation reports that could determine what Federal Reserve policymakers will do at their meeting next week.

The Asian markets traded mixed in the morning session. China’s Shanghai index declined 0.35 per cent, and Shenzhen lost 1 per cent. Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.2 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.82 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi inched up 1.06 per cent.

On Friday, foreign investors (FIIs/FPIs) turned net sellers with outflows worth Rs 2,170 crore of Indian equities, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) net bought shares worth Rs 3,014 crore.

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Stock market opens higher, auto stocks lead rally over GST booster

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Mumbai, Sep 8: The Indian benchmark indices opened higher on Monday over the GST booster, amid tariff-related uncertainty between India and the US.

As of 9.35 am, Sensex was up 280 points or 0.35 per cent, at 80,991, and Nifty was up 84 points or 0.34 per cent, at 24,825. The broadcap indices, Nifty Midcap 100 inched up by 0.77 per cent, and the Nifty smallcap 100 inched up 0.72 per cent.

Among sectoral indices, the Nifty Auto was the top gainer, rising 1.52 per cent, followed by Nifty Metal and Nifty Realty. In the Nifty pack, Tata Steel (up 2.57 per cent), Tata Steel, Tata Motors NTPC, Hindalco and SBI were the major gainers, while losers included SBI Life Insurance, Asian Paints, Dr Reddys Labs, Titan Company and Trent.

Analysts said that on the technical front, Nifty showed resilience after last week’s sharp midweek sell-off, rebounding strongly from the 100-day EMA near 24,633. The index formed a hammer candlestick pattern on the daily chart, indicating buying interest at lower levels.

The GST Council has reduced rates across insurance, medicines, and daily essentials, providing significant relief to households, farmers, and industries.

“Key support is placed around 24,600–24,280, where the 100-day and 200-day EMAs converge. A decisive close above the 25,000 mark will be critical to confirm the next leg of upside, potentially opening the path toward the 25,500–25,675 supply zone,” said Amruta Shinde from Choice Broking.

Analysts said that the heightened uncertainty surrounding the US-India trade relations will continue to weigh on markets.

However, US President Donald Trump’s recent statements regarding the “special US-India ties” indicate improvement in the strained relationship.

“Rumours suggest potential restrictions on India’s IT exports, despite the fact that reciprocal tariffs have not yet affected trade in services. These concerns will continue to influence the market, which got a morale boost from the GST reforms. The euphoria from GST reform was short-lived since the market had already partly discounted the GST rate cuts,” said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.

The US markets ended in the red zone on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped by 0.48 per cent, while the Nasdaq declined by 0.03 per cent and the S&P 500 dipped 0.32 per cent.

The Asian markets traded mixed. China’s Shanghai index inched up 0.16 per cent, and Shenzhen added 0.18 per cent. Japan’s Nikkei was up 1.42 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.36 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi inched up 0.2 per cent.

On Friday, foreign investors (FIIs/FPIs) turned net sellers with outflows worth Rs 1,304 crore of Indian equities, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) net bought shares worth Rs 1,821 crore.

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