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Crude oil, inflation data among top factors to drive stock market next week

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New Delhi, Oct 11: Crude oil prices above $100 a barrel, key inflation data in India and the US, movements in the rupee, global bond yields and a pickup in corporate earnings are likely to determine the trajectory of Indian equities in the coming week, as investors assess whether the recent rebound can sustain after eight consecutive weeks of losses.

Domestic benchmark indices staged a sharp recovery on Friday, with buying across information technology (IT), fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), automobile and financial stocks lifting market sentiment. The Nifty rose 288.65 points, or 1.30 per cent, to close at 22,520.45, while the Sensex advanced 879.09 points, or 1.23 per cent, to settle at 72,472.33.

The gains helped both benchmark indices break their eight-week losing streak. However, persistent foreign investor outflows, elevated crude oil prices, a weakening rupee and concerns over tighter monetary policy continue to pose challenges for the market.

With important macroeconomic indicators due in India and the US, alongside a busy corporate earnings calendar, investors will closely track developments across domestic and global markets to gauge the sustainability of the recovery.

One of the biggest factors likely to influence Dalal Street will be crude oil prices. Brent crude is trading above the $100-per-barrel mark, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) remains above $90. Uncertainty surrounding Iran, the Strait of Hormuz and regional energy infrastructure has heightened concerns over possible supply disruptions.

Inflation data and movements in US bond yields will also be closely watched. In the US, the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, scheduled for release on Wednesday, will provide fresh insight into price pressures and help investors assess the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. US retail sales data will also be in focus, as stronger-than-expected readings could keep Treasury yields and the dollar elevated, potentially weighing on emerging-market equities.

In India, September CPI and wholesale price index (WPI) inflation figures will offer important clues about domestic price trends and their implications for monetary policy. Any indication of persistent inflation could influence expectations around interest rates and investor sentiment, while movements in the rupee will remain an important indicator of pressure from elevated oil prices and foreign capital outflows.

Corporate earnings will be another key driver as the results season gathers pace. Investors will assess companies’ revenue growth, profit margins, management commentary and demand outlook to determine whether earnings can support market valuations amid a challenging economic environment. Results from Indian companies, alongside major corporate announcements in the US, could influence sector-specific movements and broader market direction.

Global monetary policy expectations and bond-market movements will remain important throughout the week.

Business

Early indications of FIIs turning towards Indian stock markets amid AI upheavals

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There are early indications of foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turning towards India markets amid the AI stock upheavals globally, analysts said on Sunday.

They said it is too early to say that this is a trend reversal, but early signs are positive. During the last four trading days ending on October 30, FIIs were buyers in three days in the cash market.

There are many factors that might have triggered this change in stance.

“One, the US Fed holding rates are a positive for equity markets globally. Second, the valuations in Indian markets, particularly in large caps, have become very attractive. Three, perhaps this is more important, there are clear indications of sustained momentum in economic growth in India,” said Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Ltd.

The surge in credit growth is impressive and indicative of robust growth ahead. Credit grew by 19.1 per cent in September (year-on-year). Credit growth to industry is at 19.5 per cent, and services are at 28.3 per cent.

There are signs of improvement in industrial capex, too. Another factor is the weakening of the AI trade globally. This change in stance of FPIs helped Nifty reclaim the 23,000 level, said the analyst.

Even while selling in large-cap financials, FIIs have been systematically accumulating stocks in pharmaceuticals and healthcare and select digital platform companies.

FIIs have net-sold $59 billion worth Indian equities in the 24 months leading up to September (about $64 billion with October 2026 month-to-date), and rolling 12-month outflows hit a record $40 billion in June 2026.

“FIIs return when oil breaks, and flows then confirm. The US midterms (November 3) and the Iran path decide when,” according to a note by JM Financial Institutional Securities.

FIIs sold a net $14.9 billion in FY25, $21.9 billion in FY26 and $17.7 billion with October 2026 month-to-date. Before this, FIIs had never sold for more than two straight years.

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CTI to launch poster campaign in 20 markets around Delhi’s Ramlila Maidan; urges INDIA Bloc to cancel rally

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With Diwali approaching, some Delhi traders have expressed concern over the proposed rally at Ramlila Maidan, with the Chamber of Trade and Industry (CTI) on Saturday launching a massive poster campaign urging that business activities in major markets should not be disrupted during the peak festive season and urging the INDIA Bloc to cancel its ‘Chalo Delhi’ rally.

The CTI, an apex body representing traders and entrepreneurs in Delhi, appealed to Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, saying that traders’ businesses also run on mutual trust, love and affection with their customers.

“You often say that you run shops of love in the market of hatred. Our shops also run on the basis of mutual trust, love and affection with our customers. Therefore, we humbly request you not to sacrifice our shops of love and business for a rally during the peak season of India’s biggest festival, Diwali,” the CTI said.

CTI has announced that starting on Saturday, these posters will be put up in 20 major wholesale markets within a 5-km radius of Ramlila Maidan.

CTI Chairman Brijesh Goyal said the poster campaign was intended to highlight the concerns of traders whose businesses could be affected by traffic restrictions and congestion around the rally venue.

“You talked about opening ‘shops of love’ during the Bharat Jodo Yatra, but in Delhi, our 300-year-old shops of love are being closed because of the rally,” Goyal said.

He cited businesses ranging from the famous parantha shops of Chandni Chowk and spice traders of Khari Baoli to bangle and bindi sellers in Sadar Bazaar, lehenga shops in Chandni Chowk and other traditional establishments.

“Each shop supports the families of 10 to 20 people,” he added.

The CTI said it would put up posters in major wholesale markets located within a five-km radius of Ramlila Maidan.

These include Chandni Chowk, Sadar Bazaar, Khari Baoli, Bhagirath Palace, Naya Bazaar, Chawri Bazaar, Kashmiri Gate, Daryaganj, Connaught Place, Karol Bagh, Nabi Karim, Paharganj, Ajmeri Gate, Lahori Gate, Janpath, Palika Bazaar, Ballimaran and Kinari Bazaar.

According to the traders’ body, a large gathering at Ramlila Maidan could lead to traffic congestion and restrictions in the surrounding markets.

Goyal said the proposed rally, scheduled just days before Dhanteras, could affect festive business activities.

He expressed concern that the arrival of a large number of people and around 20,000 vehicles could result in traffic jams across central Delhi and disrupt commercial activity.

The CTI claimed that the festive business of 2 million traders and the livelihoods of 7.5 million people dependent on these markets could be affected if restrictions were imposed during the peak Diwali shopping period.

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Axis Trustee warns contempt proceeding against Yes Bank over AT1 bonds

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Axis Trustee Services Limited, the trustee for the Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds issued by Yes Bank, called upon the private sector lender to reinstate the bonds and take necessary corporate actions within three days, failing which the former would initiate contempt proceedings in Supreme Court against the bank.

The trustee said in a filing that non-compliance will constitute “wilful disobedience by the lender of the Supreme Court’s October 15 judgment”.

Yes Bank said it had responded to the trustee, acknowledging the Supreme Court judgment and reiterating that it was fully committed to acting in accordance with the ruling and applicable law, according to an exchange filing.

The Bank replied to the Trustee that it is cognisant of the matters and is examining the SC Judgment and its implications in detail.

“The Bank will take all such steps and measures as are necessary and permissible under applicable law,” Yes Bank said.

“Should the Bank fail to comply with the said judgment as called upon above within the stipulated period, we shall be constrained to initiate proceedings for contempt before the SC, against the Bank and its directors and officers responsible for compliance with the said judgment, without any further notice, entirely at the Bank’s risk as to costs and consequences,” Axis Trustee said in its letter to Yes Bank.

Bank has merely stated that it is “examining the judgment in detail, including evaluating all available options and suitable actions or steps going forward,” the trustee said, adding that under the guise of evaluating its options, the bank should not withhold compliance with the said judgment.

Yes Bank rejected the allegation in its response letter, clarifying that it had not wilfully disobeyed the court.

“The Bank does not accept the characterisation in your Letter of its conduct as wilful disobedience and the assertions in your Letter are baseless and without merit,” it said.

The Supreme Court had, on October 15, upheld the Bombay High Court’s decision to set aside Yes Bank’s Rs 8,415 crore AT1 bond write-off carried out in March 2020. It ruled that the bank’s administrator had acted outside its authority and the applicable regulatory framework.

Axis Trustee challenged the decision of the then administrator of Yes Bank to write down the AT1 bonds in March 2020 before the Bombay High Court.

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