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Fundamentals for crude oil weaken, witness 1st surplus since June 2020: Goldman Sachs

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Fundamentals for crude oil weakened in April-May with modest declines in the Russian exports, record large sales by Strategic Petroleum Reserve and severe Chinese lockdowns bringing the oil market to its first surplus since June 2020, said multinational investment and financial services firm Goldman Sachs in a report.

The surplus, which the report termed as “politically created surplus”, is already ending, driven by the ongoing recovery in the Chinese demand.

“Chinese demand is recovering, yet we remain conservative on its further normalisation. The government’s push for achieving robust growth this year, therefore leaves risk to our downgraded Chinese demand expectation as skewed to the upside,” the report said.

Going forward, it downgrades China’s demand expectations by 0.2-0.4 million barrels per day in the second half of 2022-23.

“Given our already cautious demand expectations for China at the beginning of this year, this reflects the view that rolling lockdowns will remain a headwind to mobility (in the country) this year.”

Meanwhile, Russian crude oil production is expected to fall by a 0.5 million barrel per day following the European ban, the report said.

“Oil’s structural deficit therefore remains unresolved, with in fact an even tighter oil market through April than we had expected. Supply remains inelastic to higher prices with core-OPEC (higher) and exempt countries (lower) production shifts broadly offsetting.”

On the demand side, the report said that the negative global growth impulse remains insufficient to rebalance inventories at the current prices.

While updating the supply and demand expectations, the report now forecasts that Brent prices will need to average $135 per barrel in the second half of 2022 and first half 2023 for inventories to finally normalise by late 2023.

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Sensex, Nifty edge higher as geopolitical tensions ease

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New Delhi, Oct 10: Indian stock markets opened on a flat note but soon moved higher on Friday, supported by positive global sentiment.

The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and signs of a possible trade deal between the US and India boosted investor confidence.

After the opening bell, the Sensex gained 148 points, or 0.18 per cent, to trade at 82,320 levels. The Nifty also rose 40 points, or 0.16 per cent, to 25,221 levels.

“Though yesterday’s push higher in the second half failed to clear the week’s high, it did serve to invalidate the bearish bias of the evening star candle stick pattern,” market experts said.

“This encourages us to look for 25460, in the days ahead. For the day, inability to push and float above 25215 or direct fall past 25113, could render the trend sideways, but may not call for a break of 24982 right away,” they added.

In the broader market, the Nifty Midcap 100 index inched up 0.18 per cent, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 advanced 0.28 per cent — indicating healthy participation from mid- and small-cap stocks.

Among the sectoral indices, Nifty Metal was the worst performer, slipping 1.4 per cent. It was followed by weakness in Auto, Pharma, and Healthcare stocks.

On the other hand, sectors such as Banking, Energy, FMCG, IT, Consumer Durables, Oil & Gas, and Realty were trading with gains.

In the Sensex pack, Power Grid, State Bank of India, NTPC, Adani Ports, and Asian Paints were among the top gainers.

Meanwhile, Tata Steel, TCS, Bajaj Finance, M&M, and HCL Tech were trading in the red.

“The overall market environment is turning positive. Globally, the GAZA peace accord signals end to the conflict and reduction of geopolitical risk from the region,” analysts said.

“Domestically, there are indications of a trade deal between US and India with India ‘rebalancing’ its oil purchases,” they added.

According to market analysts, these positive developments and the shift in FII strategy ( FIIs were buyers in the cash market in the last three trading days) bode well for the market.

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PM Modi meets Keir Starmer in Mumbai for strengthening India-UK ties

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Mumbai, Oct 9: Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomed UK Prime Minister Keri Starmer at Raj Bhavan and held a meeting as part of the process to strengthen the strategic partnership between the two countries.

The Ministry of External Affairs shared photos of Prime Minister Narendra Modi meeting UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

“Together for stronger India-UK ties…,” posted Randhir Jaiswal, the MEA spokesperson, on X.

Earlier, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said his meeting with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer here further deepened trade and economic partnership for mutual prosperity between the two nations.

Starmer arrived in India for a two-day visit on Wednesday, accompanied by the biggest-ever trade delegation from the country to India.

“Delighted to call on UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Discussed avenues to further deepen India-UK trade and economic partnership for mutual prosperity,” Goyal posted on X social media platform.

Goyal earlier met Peter Kyle, the UK’s Secretary of State for Business and Trade, with a view to moving forward with the operationalisation of the India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) and doubling the bilateral trade by 2030.

“The meeting marked a significant step towards operationalising the India-UK CETA, with both Ministers agreeing to reposition the Joint Economic and Trade Committee (JETCO) to oversee its implementation and delivery,” according to the Commerce Ministry statement.

Both sides underlined their commitment to ensuring swift, coordinated, and results-oriented implementation of the Agreement, aimed at realising its full potential for businesses and consumers in both countries. The ministers reaffirmed their shared ambition to double bilateral trade by 2030, leveraging the complementarities between the two economies in areas such as advanced manufacturing, digital trade, clean energy, and services.

Emphasising the transformative scope of CETA, they discussed ways to maximise its benefits through regulatory cooperation, addressing non-tariff barriers, and promoting supply chain integration. The highly productive Commerce Secretary and Director General-level meeting set the tone for the Ministerial meeting, which laid a strong foundation for a full day of engaging and forward-looking discussions.

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Sensex, Nifty open flat with positive bias amid global optimism

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Mumbai, Oct 9: Indian stock markets opened flat but with a slight positive tone on Thursday, taking cues from upbeat global trends.

At the opening bell, the Sensex was up 17 points, or 0.02 per cent, at 81,791, while the Nifty gained 17 points, or 0.07 per cent, to trade at 25,063.

“From a technical standpoint for Nifty, a sustained move above 25,150 could open the door for an upside toward 25,200–25,250,” analysts said.

“On the downside, immediate support is placed around 24,950–24,900, which may serve as potential accumulation zones for long positions,” they added.

“Overall, the index is expected to remain range-bound between 24,900 and 25,200 in the near term,” experts mentioned.

Broader markets also saw some strength, with the Nifty MidCap index rising 0.3 per cent and the Nifty SmallCap index advancing 0.21 per cent.

On the institutional front, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) extended their buying streak for the second consecutive session on October 8, purchasing equities worth Rs 81 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought equities worth Rs 329 crore on the same day.

Asian markets traded higher after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit record closing highs overnight on Wall Street.

Investor sentiment also improved after US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas had agreed to the first phase of a US-brokered peace plan to pause fighting in Gaza and allow the release of hostages and prisoners.

According to experts, traders remained cautiously optimistic, tracking global cues and geopolitical developments.

“The results season starting today will be keenly watched by the market. IT stocks have witnessed some recovery from the bottom, but the headwinds for the segment continue to be strong,” market experts said.

“Banking stocks have largely remained range bound on muted earnings expectations. The NIM pressure and rising delinquencies in the unsecured loan segments will weigh on banking results generally. So, watch out for the out-performers in the segment,” they added.

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