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Consumer inflation at 8-year high may ‘trigger’ quicker rate hikes

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Sounding a red alert on India’s CPI inflation at an 8-year high print of 7.79% YoY in April, Acuite Ratings has said it may trigger quicker rate hikes.

“If inflation pressures continue to mount there is a likelihood of additional hikes thereby taking the rate to its pre- pandemic level of 5.15 per cent or even higher in FY23. Additionally, we also expect CRR to be hiked by another 50 bps by H1FY23,” Acuite Ratings said.

Given the tone of urgency in RBI’s statement to support the altered inflation-growth dynamics, “we now revise our call and expect the RBI to hike repo rate by an additional 60 bps in the rest of FY23”.

The increasing price pressures was in motion even before the onslaught of the geopolitical conflicts. However, lingering war between Russia and Ukraine, unprecedented level of sanctions, elevated oil and commodity prices along with prolonged supply chain disruptions have escalated the inflationary concerns both in the global as well as domestic economies, it said.

Globally most economies have shifted from an extended disinflationary phase to tackling strong inflationary concerns, causing key central banks monetary policy rhetoric to switch to extreme hawkishness and policy tightening in 2022 from pandemic-era accommodative policies.

“From domestic standpoint, for FY23, inflation drivers are likely to face considerable pressure from persistent hardening of input prices. The heightened pressure from commodity prices is also coinciding with unlocking of the economy post Omicron wave while vaccination coverage continues to gain traction. While we stick to our estimate of 5.9 per cent for FY23 CPI inflation, we now believe that there is a buildup of upside risks,” Acuite Ratings said.

“Going forward, we expect the core inflation to remain sticky at elevated levels given upward revision of petrol and diesel prices by the OMCs in order to reduce the under-recoveries being accumulated by them at the current crude prices of USD 100 plus per barrel.”

Acuite Ratings said the government, however, may also consider a partial absorption of the increased prices through a further excise duty cut on petrol and diesel which could provide marginal comfort from inflation perspective. While the direct pass-through of elevated commodity prices can be seen through increasing prices of petrol and diesel and non-subsidized LPG, indirect pass through of unprecedented input cost pressures by manufacturers is visible through rising prices of certain personal care products within FMCG sector which will get reflected in the core CPI print in the coming months.

After moderating close to RBI’s inflation target rate in September-21, headline CPI inflation has been rising incessantly with the print breaching the upper tolerance threshold in Q4 FY22, averaging at 6.34 per cent. It has started to gather steam in April-22 gaining strength from the geo-political crisis and rising to an eight year high of 7.79 per cent YoY from 6.95 per cent YoY in March-22.

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India’s power plants well stocked with coal as PSUs step up production

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New Delhi, March 19: India’s thermal power plants have adequate coal stocks of around 53.41 million tonnes which are adequate for nearly 23 days at the present rate of consumption, and further stocks are also being built up at the pitheads of coal mining companies as a proactive measure to meet any exigency amid the disruption in oil and gas supplies due to the Iran war, the Ministry of Coal said on Thursday.

The pithead coal stock at the mines of Coal India Limited (CIL), which was 106.78 million tonnes (MT) as on April 1, 2025, has grown to about 125.54 MT as on March, 18, 2026. Further, there is around 5.75 MT of coal at the mines of Singareni Collieries Company Limited (SCCL) and another 15.75 MT coal at the mines of captive/commercial mines and about 12 MT in transit and about 5.49 MT in ports and good-shed sidings, according to a statement issued by the ministry.

Coal is continuing to ensure reliable baseload power to support core industries such as steel and cement that underpin the economic growth of the country. The coal production in the country continues at a pace matching the prevailing demands of the consumer and building adequate stocks at the mine-end for maintaining adequate supplies to the consumers as per their requirements, with the continued support of Railways, the statement said.

Coal India Limited is taking adequate measures to ensure the supply of coal to all consumers, including small, medium, and other consumers. As a proactive step, CIL has planned 29 e-auctions in the month of March, offering about 23.56 MT of coal. Out of these 29 auctions, 5 auctions have already been conducted since March 12, wherein 73.1 lakh ton of coal was offered, and 31.96 lakh ton of coal has been booked, indicating adequacy of coal offered in the e-auctions, the statement said.

In addition to this, CIL has also taken necessary action to ensure coal availability to the small, medium and other consumers through the State Nominated Agencies (SNAs) route and requested the state governments to provide the additional coal requirement, which can be met in full to avoid any energy shortages. The coal offtake of the states through the SNAs is being constantly monitored by CIL to ensure that uninterrupted supplies are ensured, the statement said.

The Ministry of Coal is ensuring a performance-driven ecosystem through sustained policy facilitation, robust monitoring mechanisms, and proactive stakeholder engagement. These concerted efforts are aimed at providing reliable coal availability, enabling uninterrupted operations across critical sectors, and effectively meeting the nation’s growing energy demands, the statement added.

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India’s Rs 5 trillion gold hoard fuels boom in fast-growing gold loan market, draws global investors

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New Delhi, March 19: Indian households are sitting on an enormous reserve of gold, and that wealth is now quietly reshaping the country’s lending market, a report has said.

According to a report by Morgan Stanley, Indian households collectively own more than 34,000 tonnes of gold.

Kotak Mahindra Bank estimates this stockpile to be worth nearly $5 trillion. While most of this gold — around 90 per cent — still lies idle, it is increasingly being used as collateral to raise quick loans.

Gold-backed lending has emerged as one of the fastest-growing segments in India’s retail credit space.

This comes at a time when other forms of consumer loans, especially unsecured personal loans, have slowed due to tighter regulations.

The Reserve Bank of India had tightened rules around unsecured lending in late 2023, limiting easy access to such credit for many borrowers.

As a result, more people are turning to gold loans. These loans are easier to access, often require minimal paperwork, and can be disbursed quickly.

At the same time, a sharp rise in global gold prices has made this option even more attractive.

Since 2024, gold prices have surged significantly, increasing the value borrowers can unlock against their jewellery.

Data from the RBI shows that gold loans more than doubled in just one year, reaching Rs 4 trillion in January from Rs 1.75 trillion a year earlier.

This makes gold loans the fastest-growing retail credit category in India, after home and vehicle loans.

However, the actual size of the gold loan market is believed to be much larger. Experts estimate it to be around Rs 14 trillion, as RBI data does not fully capture lending by non-banking financial companies (NBFCs).

These NBFCs account for nearly half of the gold loan market. The rapid growth of gold loans is also drawing global attention.

Private equity firm Bain Capital is planning to acquire up to a 41.7 per cent stake in Manappuram Finance, a deal recently approved by the RBI.

Meanwhile, Japan’s financial giant Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group has acquired a 20 per cent stake in Shriram Finance, which is also expanding its gold loan business.

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Pakistan has LPG stock for just 9 days, crude oil for 11 amid Middle East tensions

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New Delhi, March 19: Pakistan has limited petroleum reserves, with crude oil stocks sufficient for just 11 days, raising concerns over energy security amid disruptions caused by the ongoing Middle East conflict, a report has said.

Briefing the Senate Standing Committee on Petroleum, the secretary petroleum said the country currently has diesel reserves for 21 days, petrol for 27 days, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for nine days and jet fuel for 14 days, according to a report in The Express Tribune.

Nearly 70 per cent of Pakistan’s petroleum imports come from the Middle East, and the ongoing conflict has disrupted key shipping routes and supply chains, the official said.

Pakistan is in talks with Iran to secure permission for oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which could allow four vessels to transport crude cargoes if approved.

Officials also warned of a potential gas crisis, with the country likely to face a severe shortage after April 14 due to disruptions in liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies.

Of the eight LNG cargoes expected in March, only two reached Pakistan, while several shipments scheduled for April may also be affected.

The report also said that the conflict has also led to a sharp rise in global oil prices, with high-speed diesel prices increasing significantly and petrol costs also witnessing a steep jump. Shipment timelines have been impacted as well, with deliveries via the Red Sea now taking nearly 12 days compared to the usual four to five days, it said.

Moreover, authorities are considering measures to prioritise gas supply for domestic consumers, while reducing supply to industries and commercial users to manage shortages.

In a relief measure, the government has decided to provide a subsidy of Rs 23 billion to around 30 million motorcycle and rickshaw owners, funded through savings from austerity measures.

Meanwhile, the government has initiated daily reviews of petroleum stocks to closely monitor the situation.

“The country currently has adequate fuel availability for March, with arrangements in place to ensure supplies through mid-April,” according to officials.

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