Business
Budget’s growth focus to face macro challenges
The Budget is focused on growth, but will face macro challenges, Japanese brokerage Nomura said in a report.
First, the ability of the government — both central and states — to spend 2.9 per cent of GDP on capex will face execution hurdles. Identification of projects, on-the-ground implementation, coordination with different agencies — all typically lead to a smaller amount being spent than allocated.
Second, if revenues disappoint or other expenses rise (higher subsidies or more allocation towards rural employment, for example), then there is a risk of the capex amount being pruned.
Third, we see other growth challenges. India is currently in the midst of a business cycle recovery. However, we expect India’s growth to decelerate from H2 CY2022 onwards, reflecting weaker consumption demand from low income households (due to scarring effects and high inflation), weaker export growth and continued sub-par private capex due to low capacity utilisation.
Rising oil prices (a negative term of trade effect) and tighter global financial conditions are also growth headwinds.
Hence, if the capex-led push is not fruitful, then the growth slowdown could be material. We currently expect GDP growth of 8.7 per cent y-o-y in FY22 (reduced recently from 9.2 per cent owing to the impact of Omicron.
Nomura said we continue to expect higher inflation and wider current account deficits, largely due to rising commodity prices, although an expansionary budget may also play an incremental role. On inflation, while food prices appear in check, core inflationary pressures are rising across clothing, household goods and services and personal care items.
Firms are passing higher input prices onto consumer prices. Domestic fuel prices are currently on hold, but will likely be adjusted higher after the state elections. We expect services price inflation to also rise as the economy opens.
We expect elevated global commodity prices, high inflation and steady domestic demand to result in higher imports, widening the current account deficit to 2.6 per cent of GDP in 2022, up from a deficit of 1.3 per cent in 2021.
The Budget is unambiguously focused on reviving growth, via higher public capex. Capital expenditure generally results in a higher growth multiplier, so the continued focus on infrastructure spending, including support to states to spend on capex, is important at a time when private capex is sluggish.
The government expects to miss its budgeted fiscal deficit target of 6.8 per cent of GDP for FY22 (year ending March 2022) marginally, with an actual outturn of 6.9 per cent (Figure 1). The sharp rise in receipts of corporate taxes, robust income taxes and strong indirect taxes (in part due to higher fuel excise duties in the first half of the year) have resulted in net tax revenues exceeding budget estimates by Rs 2.2trn (1.0 per cent of GDP). However, contrary to our expectation, the government has revised up its capex commitment for the year by Rs 485bn (0.2 per cent of GDP), though this primarily reflects the government clearing its liabilities of the recently divested Air India. Also, in line with our expectations, revenue expenditure (revex) has been higher by Rs 2.4trn (1.0 per cent of GDP), reflecting the second wave support package, food and fertiliser subsidies, export incentives and extra spending by some departments. Finally, the disinvestment target has now been calibrated lower by Rs 970bn (0.4 per cent of GDP).
Business
Crude oil prices fall up to 2 pc, head for steep weekly losses

New Delhi, June 26: Global crude oil prices fell sharply on Friday and were on track to post steep weekly losses as easing supply concerns in the Strait of Hormuz outweighed fresh geopolitical tensions following an attack on a cargo vessel near Oman.
International oil benchmark Brent crude futures fell $1.51 or 2 per cent, to $73.75 a barrel in early trade.
Similarly, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined $1.50 or about 2 per cent to $70.42 a barrel.
Both benchmark contracts had gained more than 2 per cent in the previous session after a cargo vessel was struck by an unidentified projectile near Oman, prompting the United Nations’ shipping agency to suspend its voluntary evacuation programme.
According to media reports, two US officials said Iran had fired on the cargo vessel as it attempted to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian authorities, however, said the security of ships sailing outside designated Hormuz routes could not be guaranteed.
Despite the latest security concerns, Brent and WTI were both headed for weekly losses of nearly 7 per cent as fears of supply disruptions eased following an improvement in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Crude shipments through the strategic waterway rose this week to their highest level since the US-Israel conflict with Iran began in February, after a ceasefire helped reopen the route. However, overall vessel traffic remained well below the pre-conflict average of around 125 ships per day.
The Indian basket of crude oil — a weighted average of Brent Dated, Oman and Dubai crude grades imported by domestic refiners — averaged $86.31 per barrel in June so far, after surging during the West Asia conflict. The basket had averaged $106.23 per barrel in May and $114.48 per barrel in April.
Global benchmark Brent crude, which had touched around $120 per barrel at the peak of the conflict, is now hovering near $74 per barrel.
Business
Stock markets remain closed on account of Muharram

Mumbai, June 26: Indian stock exchanges — the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and the BSE — remained closed on Friday on account of Muharram, with trading suspended across all equity market segments, including equity derivatives, currency derivatives, securities lending and borrowing (SLB).
Meanwhile, in the commodity segment, the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) remained closed during the morning session from 9 am to 5 pm.
Trading on the commodity exchange will resume in the evening session from 5 pm.
In addition, the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) — which primarily deals in agricultural commodities — remained closed for the entire day.
Following Friday’s Muharram holiday, the stock market will remain open for nearly three months before the next scheduled holiday on September 14 for Ganesh Chaturthi.
Thereafter, the bourses will remain closed on October 2 (Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti), October 20 (Dussehra), November 10 (Diwali-Balipratipada), November 24 (Prakash Gurpurb Sri Guru Nanak Dev) and December 25 (Christmas).
In the last session, the equity benchmarks ended their two-session winning streak on a positive note despite paring most of their intraday gains due to profit booking in IT and metal stocks.
Sensex settled over 100 points or 0.14 per cent higher at 77,100.47 after touching an intraday high of 77,803.18.
Similarly, Nifty ended higher, with an increase of 34.35 points or 0.14 per cent at 24,056.
Among Nifty constituents, Hindalco Industries, Power Grid, Bharti Airtel, ONGC, Infosys, NTPC, BEL, HCL Tech, HDFC Life, Asian Paints, Trent, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Steel and Titan were top losers.
Moreover, the broader markets underperformed, with Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices declining 0.5 per cent each.
As the holiday falls on a Friday, market participants will enjoy a three-day weekend, with trading set to resume on Monday, June 29.
Business
Indian markets open higher as crude oil prices hover near $70 mark

Mumbai, June 25: Indian stock markets opened higher on Thursday as crude oil prices eased towards the $70-per-barrel mark, with tankers resuming their exit from the Strait of Hormuz following an initial peace deal between the US and Iran.
Sensex started the session up 400 points or 0.52 per cent at 77,391.07, while Nifty opened at 24,125.85, gaining over 100 points or 0.43 per cent.
Most sectoral indices traded in positive territory, led by Nifty Realty and Nifty Auto, gained up to 1 per cent.
Nifty PSU Bank, Nifty IT, Nifty Pharma, Nifty Oil & Gas, Nifty FMCG and Nifty Private Bank indices also advanced.
However, Nifty Metal was the lone major sectoral loser, declining 0.56 per cent.
From the Nifty pack, Hindalco Industries, Eternal, Bharat Electronics, Power Grid Corporation, ONGC, Infosys, Titan, Tata Steel, JSW Steel, ITC, Asian Paints and Coal India were among the top losers in early trade.
Category-wise, Nifty Microcap 250 gained 0.87 per cent, Nifty Midcap 100 rose 0.63 per cent, Nifty Midcap 50 advanced 0.61 per cent, and Nifty Smallcap 500 climbed 0.59 per cent.
Meanwhile, India VIX — the market’s fear gauge — slipped nearly 3 per cent to 13, indicating easing volatility.
According to analysts, the technical undertone remains positive as long as the Nifty sustains above the 24,000 mark. Immediate support is placed at 23,900, followed by the 23,790-23,750 zone if profit-booking intensifies.
“On the upside, the 24,090-24,150 zone remains the key resistance area, and a decisive breakout above this supply zone could trigger fresh short-covering, paving the way for a move towards 24,300,” they said.
Analysts further noted that supportive global cues and lower crude oil prices favour further gains, although traders should remain watchful of expiry-related volatility and evolving global monetary policy expectations.
Meanwhile, international benchmark Brent crude declined about 2 per cent to around $72 a barrel. Similarly, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 1.83 per cent to trade below the $70-per-barrel mark.
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