Business
Budget’s growth focus to face macro challenges
The Budget is focused on growth, but will face macro challenges, Japanese brokerage Nomura said in a report.
First, the ability of the government — both central and states — to spend 2.9 per cent of GDP on capex will face execution hurdles. Identification of projects, on-the-ground implementation, coordination with different agencies — all typically lead to a smaller amount being spent than allocated.
Second, if revenues disappoint or other expenses rise (higher subsidies or more allocation towards rural employment, for example), then there is a risk of the capex amount being pruned.
Third, we see other growth challenges. India is currently in the midst of a business cycle recovery. However, we expect India’s growth to decelerate from H2 CY2022 onwards, reflecting weaker consumption demand from low income households (due to scarring effects and high inflation), weaker export growth and continued sub-par private capex due to low capacity utilisation.
Rising oil prices (a negative term of trade effect) and tighter global financial conditions are also growth headwinds.
Hence, if the capex-led push is not fruitful, then the growth slowdown could be material. We currently expect GDP growth of 8.7 per cent y-o-y in FY22 (reduced recently from 9.2 per cent owing to the impact of Omicron.
Nomura said we continue to expect higher inflation and wider current account deficits, largely due to rising commodity prices, although an expansionary budget may also play an incremental role. On inflation, while food prices appear in check, core inflationary pressures are rising across clothing, household goods and services and personal care items.
Firms are passing higher input prices onto consumer prices. Domestic fuel prices are currently on hold, but will likely be adjusted higher after the state elections. We expect services price inflation to also rise as the economy opens.
We expect elevated global commodity prices, high inflation and steady domestic demand to result in higher imports, widening the current account deficit to 2.6 per cent of GDP in 2022, up from a deficit of 1.3 per cent in 2021.
The Budget is unambiguously focused on reviving growth, via higher public capex. Capital expenditure generally results in a higher growth multiplier, so the continued focus on infrastructure spending, including support to states to spend on capex, is important at a time when private capex is sluggish.
The government expects to miss its budgeted fiscal deficit target of 6.8 per cent of GDP for FY22 (year ending March 2022) marginally, with an actual outturn of 6.9 per cent (Figure 1). The sharp rise in receipts of corporate taxes, robust income taxes and strong indirect taxes (in part due to higher fuel excise duties in the first half of the year) have resulted in net tax revenues exceeding budget estimates by Rs 2.2trn (1.0 per cent of GDP). However, contrary to our expectation, the government has revised up its capex commitment for the year by Rs 485bn (0.2 per cent of GDP), though this primarily reflects the government clearing its liabilities of the recently divested Air India. Also, in line with our expectations, revenue expenditure (revex) has been higher by Rs 2.4trn (1.0 per cent of GDP), reflecting the second wave support package, food and fertiliser subsidies, export incentives and extra spending by some departments. Finally, the disinvestment target has now been calibrated lower by Rs 970bn (0.4 per cent of GDP).
Business
Equity markets open flat amid gains in crude oil prices

New Delhi, Aug 11: Domestic equity markets opened flat on Tuesday after surge in crude oil prices, while information technology and consumer durables stocks gained offset by weakness in banking and financial counters.
Sensex opened 32.67 points or 0.04 per cent lower at 78,509.77, while Nifty started the session declining 8.70 points or 0.04 per cent at 24,575.10.
Sector-wise, Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom rose 0.73 per cent, Nifty Consumer Durables gained 0.66 per cent and Nifty IT advanced 0.63 per cent. Real estate, auto and pharmaceutical shares also traded in positive territory.
On the other hand, banking stocks were under pressure as Nifty Private Bank fell 0.64 per cent and Nifty PSU Bank declined 0.62 per cent.
Market experts said rising crude oil prices remained an irritant for equities, although improving domestic fundamentals, better-than-expected June-quarter earnings and stability in the rupee were providing support.
“Rising Brent crude price continues to be an irritant for the market even as other fundamentals exhibit strength,” they said, adding that foreign institutional investors turning buyers, encouraged by better-than-expected Q1 results and rupee stability, could keep the market resilient with a slight upward bias.
According to analysts, robust domestic consumption could sustain earnings growth through FY27, while large FCNR (B) inflows may support the rupee and, in turn, facilitate further foreign investor inflows.
Foreign investors are also rotating capital away from the so-called ‘chip trade’ in South Korea and Taiwan and compensating for their under-ownership of Indian equities, the experts said.
Interestingly, such flows are being directed towards relatively expensive sectors such as telecom, renewable energy, capital goods and pharmaceuticals rather than attractively valued banking majors, they said.
From a technical perspective, analysts see immediate support for the Nifty in the 24,400-24,450 zone and resistance at 24,750-24,800. Holding above the support zone could keep the index’s sideways-to-positive bias intact, with buying interest likely to emerge on dips. A decisive break above 24,750-24,800 could improve momentum and provide a fresh directional trigger.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 0.41 per cent to $88.08 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.47 per cent to $82.52 a barrel.
Asian markets were mixed in early trade. Japan’s Nikkei rose around 2 per cent and South Korea’s KOSPI gained more than 1 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.6 per cent.
US equities ended marginally lower on Monday, with the S&P 500 declining 0.06 per cent and the Nasdaq falling 0.32 per cent.
Business
Customs duty on gold, silver, platinum tops Rs 10,460 crore since duty hike

New Delhi : The government has collected Rs 10,463 crore in customs duty from imports of gold, silver and platinum between May 13 and August 2 following the increase in import duties on the precious metals, Parliament was informed on Monday.
In a written reply to a question in the Lok Sabha, Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary said customs duty collections during the period stood at Rs 10,040 crore on gold, Rs 328 crore on silver and Rs 95 crore on platinum.
The combined customs duty collection from the three precious metals thus amounted to Rs 10,463 crore during the period.
With effect from May 13, the government had increased the import duty on gold and silver to 15 per cent from 6 per cent, while the duty on platinum was raised to 15.4 per cent from 6.4 per cent.
Moreover, consequential changes were also made to duties on related items, including gold and silver dore, coins and findings.
Chaudhary said the government had taken the decision to curb discretionary imports and prioritise foreign exchange for essential imports such as crude oil, fertilisers, industrial raw materials and capital goods.
The duty hike came against the backdrop of rising global uncertainties, including the conflict in West Asia and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which had pushed up prices of crude oil as well as food and fertiliser imports.
The minister also informed the House that enforcement agencies seized 161 kg of smuggled gold and arrested 116 persons between May 13 and June 30.
India is the world’s second-largest consumer of gold after China with imports largely driven by demand from the jewellery sector.
Gold imports account for a significant outflow of foreign exchange and are closely monitored by policymakers from a balance-of-payments perspective.
Business
TRAI mandates 1601-series numbers for service calls from utilities, logistics firms

New Delhi : The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) on Monday directed telecom operators to begin onboarding entities from select non-financial sectors onto the new 1601-series numbering framework for transactional and service voice calls extending a system already in use by the banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) sector.
After this decision, consumers can identify genuine service and transactional calls and curb impersonation and fraud carried out through regular 10-digit mobile numbers.
In addition, TRAI said it has issued directions on the use of the 1601-series numbers for entities in sectors other than BFSI and government organisations which currently use the 1600-series numbering framework.
The authority also noted that the widespread adoption of 1600-series numbers by BFSI entities has provided valuable operational experience for expanding the trusted numbering framework to other sectors.
Under the first phase of implementation, the 1601-series will be allotted to entities in the utilities sector, including electricity distribution companies, water utilities, city gas distribution companies, LPG distributors and other utility service providers.
The logistics and courier sector has also been included in Phase-I, covering courier companies, express logistics firms, parcel delivery service providers as well as freight and logistics operators involved in consignments delivery.
TRAI said the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) has allocated the 1601-series for such calls and telecom service providers (TSPs) have been directed to complete migration and onboarding of eligible entities covered under Phase-I within 90 days from the date of the order.
The regulator further noted that 1601-series numbers would be allocated directly to eligible entities rather than intermediaries or aggregators following verification by telecom operators.
“The distinct numbering identity will enable the consumers to easily identify legitimate service and transactional calls, thereby strengthening trust in such voice-based communications,” the regulator said.
Additionally, TRAI clarified that the 1601-series numbers cannot be used for promotional voice calls by any entity.
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