Business
Budget’s growth focus to face macro challenges
The Budget is focused on growth, but will face macro challenges, Japanese brokerage Nomura said in a report.
First, the ability of the government — both central and states — to spend 2.9 per cent of GDP on capex will face execution hurdles. Identification of projects, on-the-ground implementation, coordination with different agencies — all typically lead to a smaller amount being spent than allocated.
Second, if revenues disappoint or other expenses rise (higher subsidies or more allocation towards rural employment, for example), then there is a risk of the capex amount being pruned.
Third, we see other growth challenges. India is currently in the midst of a business cycle recovery. However, we expect India’s growth to decelerate from H2 CY2022 onwards, reflecting weaker consumption demand from low income households (due to scarring effects and high inflation), weaker export growth and continued sub-par private capex due to low capacity utilisation.
Rising oil prices (a negative term of trade effect) and tighter global financial conditions are also growth headwinds.
Hence, if the capex-led push is not fruitful, then the growth slowdown could be material. We currently expect GDP growth of 8.7 per cent y-o-y in FY22 (reduced recently from 9.2 per cent owing to the impact of Omicron.
Nomura said we continue to expect higher inflation and wider current account deficits, largely due to rising commodity prices, although an expansionary budget may also play an incremental role. On inflation, while food prices appear in check, core inflationary pressures are rising across clothing, household goods and services and personal care items.
Firms are passing higher input prices onto consumer prices. Domestic fuel prices are currently on hold, but will likely be adjusted higher after the state elections. We expect services price inflation to also rise as the economy opens.
We expect elevated global commodity prices, high inflation and steady domestic demand to result in higher imports, widening the current account deficit to 2.6 per cent of GDP in 2022, up from a deficit of 1.3 per cent in 2021.
The Budget is unambiguously focused on reviving growth, via higher public capex. Capital expenditure generally results in a higher growth multiplier, so the continued focus on infrastructure spending, including support to states to spend on capex, is important at a time when private capex is sluggish.
The government expects to miss its budgeted fiscal deficit target of 6.8 per cent of GDP for FY22 (year ending March 2022) marginally, with an actual outturn of 6.9 per cent (Figure 1). The sharp rise in receipts of corporate taxes, robust income taxes and strong indirect taxes (in part due to higher fuel excise duties in the first half of the year) have resulted in net tax revenues exceeding budget estimates by Rs 2.2trn (1.0 per cent of GDP). However, contrary to our expectation, the government has revised up its capex commitment for the year by Rs 485bn (0.2 per cent of GDP), though this primarily reflects the government clearing its liabilities of the recently divested Air India. Also, in line with our expectations, revenue expenditure (revex) has been higher by Rs 2.4trn (1.0 per cent of GDP), reflecting the second wave support package, food and fertiliser subsidies, export incentives and extra spending by some departments. Finally, the disinvestment target has now been calibrated lower by Rs 970bn (0.4 per cent of GDP).
Business
CBDT extends tax audit deadline to Oct 21, taxpayers can file returns till Nov 21

New Delhi, Sep 28: The Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) has extended the due date for furnishing Return of Income for assessment year (AY) 2026-27 from October 31 to November 21 for persons subject to audit under the Income-tax Act, 1961, according to an official statement issued on Monday.
Accordingly, the ‘specified date’ for furnishing the audit report also stands extended from September 30 to October 21, the statement said.
A formal notification to this effect is being issued separately, the statement added.
The demand for an extension had gathered momentum in recent weeks, with several chartered accountant associations and tax professionals seeking that the deadline be pushed to October 31. Tax professionals had also raised concerns over the time required to complete audit procedures, verify disclosures, and reconcile information available across various tax and financial records.
The extension will give taxpayers and their auditors more time to complete the audit process and furnish the required report on the income-tax e-filing portal and is expected to facilitate the ease of doing business.
Meanwhile, the government’s net direct tax collection has recorded a robust 13 per cent growth to surpass the Rs 12.12 lakh crore mark between April 1 and September 17 of the current financial year compared to the same period of the previous financial year, according to official data.
Gross direct tax collections rose over 15 per cent year-on-year basis to Rs 14.3 lakh crore during the same period, the figures showed.
Corporate tax mop-up grew 19.48 per cent to about Rs 5.56 lakh crore, while personal income tax and collection from Hindu undivided families increased 6 per cent to over Rs 6.16 lakh crore. Securities Transactions Tax (STT) collection jumped 53 per cent to Rs 40,214 crore between April 1 and September 17 compared to the same period of the previous year.
Refund issuance surged by over 29 per cent to cross Rs 2.2 lakh crore during this period, the data further showed.
Business
India’s industrial growth surges to 8 pc in August, manufacturing sector shines

New Delhi, Sep 28: India’s industrial production surged to 8 per cent in August this year, compared to the same month of the previous year, driven by a robust performance in the manufacturing sector, according to the data released by the Ministry of Statistics on Monday.
The manufacturing sector, which accounts for more than three-fourths of the index of industrial production (IIP), posted an impressive 9 per cent growth during August compared to the same month of the previous year.
“In a record performance, the manufacturing sector has recorded growth of 8 per cent or more in the last three consecutive months,” according to the official statement.
This augurs well for the economy as the sector plays a key role in providing quality jobs to the young graduates passing out from the country’s engineering institutes and universities.
Within the Manufacturing sector, 18 out of 23 industry groups have recorded a positive growth in August over the same month last year. The top three positive contributors for the month in this segment are the manufacturing of motor vehicles which recorded a 25.2 per cent growth, along with the manufacturing of electrical equipment (30.9 per cent) and the manufacturing of machinery and equipment (25.3 per cent).
The electricity and gas supply sector recorded a strong growth of 12.3 per cent during August while Water Supply, Sewerage & Waste Management posted a 6.3 per cent growth.
However, the mining sector posted a negative growth of (-) 5.6 per cent during the month.
The figures on use-based classification show that the production of capital goods, which comprise machines used in factories, jumped by a robust 16.9 per cent in August this year. This segment reflects the real investment taking place in the economy, which has a multiplier effect on the creation of jobs and incomes going ahead.
There was also a double-digit increase of 11.1 per cent in the production of consumer durables such as electronic goods, refrigerators, and TVs during August reflecting the higher consumer demand for these items amid rising incomes. Consumer non-durables such as soaps and cosmetics posted a growth of 2.1 per cent growth during the month.
The infrastructure and construction goods sector also recorded a growth of 6.4 per cent during the month driven by the Government’s big ticket investments in highways, ports and railway projects which create large-scale employment and drive up the overall economic growth rate.
The Ministry of Statistics has decided to adopt output PPI as a deflator in place of WPI for item groups for which output is collected in value terms. This affects 234 out of the 463 item groups in the IIP basket, representing 36.02 per cent of the total index weight, the official statement said.
The ministry has now revised and released the entire IIP 2022-23 series with Output PPI and it supersedes the earlier WPI based IIP 2022–23 series released on 1st June 2026, the statement explained.
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) released the new series of the All India Index of Industrial Production (IIP) with base year 2022–23 on 1st June 2026, using the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) as the deflator.
Business
Silver tumbles over Rs 7,000 on MCX, slips below Rs 2.28 lakh amid global sell-off

Mumbai, Sep 28: Silver prices witnessed a sharp decline on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) on Monday, with the white metal plunging more than Rs 7,000 and falling below the crucial Rs 2.28 lakh-per-kg mark amid a broad-based sell-off in precious metals.
The steep fall comes as rising crude oil prices have heightened inflation concerns globally, strengthening market expectations that the US Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer or consider further policy tightening.
Higher interest rates and elevated US Treasury yields typically reduce the appeal of precious metals, which do not offer interest income, while a stronger dollar makes commodities priced in the US currency more expensive for overseas buyers.
During noon trade, the December silver futures contract on MCX was trading at Rs 2,27,494 per kg, down Rs 7,202, or 3.07 per cent, from its previous close of Rs 2,34,696 per kg.
Commenting on technical outlook, market experts said that the immediate resistance is at Rs 232,000–Rs 233,000, followed by Rs 236,000–Rs 237,000. “Immediate support is at Rs 227,000–Rs 228,000, followed by Rs 223,000–Rs 224,000,” analysts stated.
“The RSI at 41.12, below its signal line, indicates fading momentum,” analysts added.
COMEX Silver opened at $64.66 and is trading near $62.40, down 3.72 per cent on the day. It has slipped below the $63.50–$64.00 zone, which previously acted as support and is now likely to act as resistance, and is testing the $61.50–$62.00 support region.
“Silver remains weaker than gold in today’s session. Immediate resistance is at $63.50–$64.00, followed by $65.50–$66.00. Immediate support is at $61.50–$62.00, followed by $59.50–$60.00,” market watchers stated.
“The price remains below the 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day EMAs, while the RSI continues to edge lower,” experts noted.
Meanwhile, USD/INR opened at 95.80, up 0.13 per cent on the day, and is trading just below the 96 mark. Immediate resistance is at 96.00–96.10, followed by 96.40–96.50.
“Immediate support is at 95.70–95.80, followed by 95.40–95.50. The pair remains above its key short-term moving averages. The RSI at 59.51, above its signal line, reflects a mild bullish, or rupee-weakening, bias,” market watchers mentioned.
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