Business
Auto industry not out of woods, RBI’s move to make loans costlier: FADA
The automobile industry is still not out of the woods and the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) move to increase the repo-rate by 45 basis points will make vehicle loans expensive, said a top official of the Federation of Automobile Dealers Association (FADA).
Comparing the auto sales in April 2022 with that of April 2019 FADA President Vinkesh Gulati said the sector is still not out of the woods as overall retails were down by minus six per cent.
Apart from PV (passenger vehicle) and tractors which grew handsomely by 12 per cent and 30 per cent, two/three wheelers, commercial vehicles are yet to turn green as these categories were down by minus-11 per cent, 13 per cent and 0.5 per cent, respectively, Gulati said.
“The month of April (2022) saw similar Auto Retail figures as March’22. While YoY comparison with April’21 shows all categories in green with high growth rate, it is important to note that both April’21 and April’20 were affected by nation-wide lockdown due to phase 1 and 2 of the Covid wave which witnessed no to negligible business. Hence a better comparison will be with Aprila�19 which was a normal pre-covid month,” Gulati said.
He said the RBI’s out of turn announcement of increasing repo-rate by 45 bps has taken everyone off-guard.
“The move will curb excess liquidity in the system and will make auto loans expensive,” he added.
While the passenger vehicle segment may be able to absorb this shock due to long waiting periods, the two wheeler segment is already reeling due to an underperforming rural market, vehicle price hikes and high fuel costs.
High interest rates for vehicle loan due to RBI’s move will be an additional blow for this segment. Certainly, this move will slow the speed of auto retail and dampen the sentiments further, Gulati said.
On the other hand, Private consumption is regaining traction backed by a recuperating contact-intensive services and rising discretionary spending.
“With the Russia-Ukraine war continuing and China under lockdown, the global auto industry continues to witness supply crunch as semi-conductor shortage along with high metal prices and container shortage prevails. Customers of the PV segment hence continues to witness long waiting period,” Gulati said.
Referring to the Skymet’s normal monsoon forecast and if the monsoon is evenly distributed there will have a positive rub-off on rural sentiment as farmers will be able to get better crop realisation thus increasing their disposable income.
It will thus benefit tractor and two wheeler sales. This along with the marriage season in coming days will also see traction in auto retail.
Overall, FADA changes its stance from extremely cautious to cautious in terms of slight recovery in near term.
Business
Shriram Finance shares fall over 6 pc, hit 11-month low on growth cut

Shares of non-banking financial company Shriram Finance on Monday traded more than 6 per cent lower, hitting an 11-month low and emerged as the top Nifty loser.
The NBFC stock declined as much as 6.55 per cent to 810.20, recording an intraday low on the BSE in morning trade.
It was trading at Rs 829.20, a decrease of 4.36 per cent by 10:57 am.
The selling pressure in the stock came after the NBFC firm cut its loan growth forecast and flagged higher credit costs, overshadowing better-than-expected Q2 profit.
Moreover, the company cut its assets under management (AUM) growth guidance for FY27 to 15-17 per cent from 18 per cent, citing weak monsoon and geopolitical uncertainty and pressure on borrowers in drought-hit regions.
Meanwhile, analysts flagged asset quality concerns with reducing share price targets.
Analysts at global brokerage Jefferies said credit costs could stay elevated for one to two more quarters due to stress in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Telangana.
According to domestic brokerage Motilal Oswal, higher slippages and write-offs reflected drought-like conditions in several states, though overall asset quality remained broadly stable.
“SHFL delivered a mixed quarter, with PPoP beating estimates on higher NIM and lower opex, while earnings were in line due to higher credit costs. AUM growth at 17 per cent YoY was stronger than estimated,” it said.
Similarly, JM Financial said rising early delinquencies and rural stress remain key concerns. The brokerage also stated, “Deteriorating asset quality indicators amid drought-like conditions remain a concern.” However, the stock has corrected 14 per cent over the past month. Recent equity infusion and rating upgrades to AAA should cushion margins.
On the aforesaid exchange, the NBFC stock has recorded a 52-week high of Rs 1,153.65 and a 52-week low of Rs 710.40.
Business
FPI selling stands at Rs 53,337 crore in Oct so far amid elevated crude oil prices

As long as Brent crude remains above $100 a barrel, there will be pressures on the economy and the foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are likely to sell the dip, analysts said on Sunday.
The total FPI selling in October stands at Rs 53,337 crore so far, and the net FPI investment through the IPO market during this period stands at Rs 5,281 crore.
“The total FPI selling through the exchanges for this year stood at Rs 3,69,164 crore,” said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Ltd.
On the flows front, FIIs remained net sellers for the 10th straight week. For the week ended October 23, FIIs significantly reduced their selling and even turned buyers on two days.
The moderation in US bond yields with the 10-year yield declining from 5.36 per cent to around 5 per cent, appreciation in the rupee to 94.94 to the dollar and the low valuations, particularly of the large-caps, contributed to the moderation in FII selling.
Going ahead, the steady moderation in FII selling offers some comfort, though elevated crude and sharp broader-market weakness keep the downside risk alive.
A significant market trend during the week was the sharp correction in the mid-and small-caps.
The Nifty Mid-cap 100 plunged 5.6 per cent and the Nifty Small-cap 100 crashed 7.3 per cent during the week while the Nifty 50 was relatively resilient with a cut of only 2.35 per cent.
Forced liquidation in the margin-funded long positions in the broader market is rumoured to have triggered the crash in the broader market, said analysts.
The resilience of the large-caps is mainly due to the accumulation of the fairly valued large-caps by the DIIs which are flush with funds.
The high crude prices is acting as a strong headwind for the economy and market, said analysts.
Business
Gold, silver decline sharply on weekly basis as crude prices rise

Gold prices dipped 3.28 per cent on a weekly basis, while silver prices declined 7.83 per cent this week, as rising crude oil prices heightened inflation fears.
The rising inflation concerns reinforced expectations that global interest rates will stay higher for longer, prompting a wave of selling across precious‑metals markets.
On Friday, MCX gold futures expiring December declined 0.81 per cent while MCX silver futures for December shed 1.75 per cent. Gold futures stood at Rs 1,42,150, while silver futures stood at Rs 1,96,100 per kg.
Gold saw its steepest weekly decline since June and slipped below the psychologically important $4,000 per ounce level for the first time since mid-July, analysts said.
The selloff in silver intensified over weakness in US technology stocks, particularly AI-linked companies, which triggered margin calls and forced investors to liquidate precious-metal holdings.
Meanwhile, crude oil surged to multi-month highs following renewed attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and shipping routes, while the Indian rupee surrendered its early-week gains amid rising oil prices and renewed dollar demand.
However, lower prices encouraged physical gold purchases in India during the Dussehra festival, providing some underlying demand support, while Chinese jewellery demand remained subdued.
Market participants forecast that precious metals could remain under pressure if elevated energy prices reinforce inflation concerns and expectations of tighter monetary policy. However, physical demand and any moderation in bond yields could offer support following the recent correction, they said.
Markets largely expect the US Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the October 27–28 policy meeting, but expectations of another rate hike in December remain elevated, with traders pricing approximately a 78 per cent probability.
Investors are also awaiting the US Personal Consumption Expenditures report next week for additional guidance on inflation and future interest-rate decisions.
Immediate resistance for Comex Gold is placed at $4,070–$4,100 zone, while support lies at $3,970–$4,000 zone, analysts said.
For MCX Gold, immediate resistance is placed at Rs 1,43,000–Rs 1,43,700 zone, while the support lies at Rs 1,40,000–Rs 1,41,000, they added.
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