Business
RBI likely to increase repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.9% in Sep policy: Morgan Stanley
The Monetary Policy Committee in the September credit policy is likely to increase the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.90 per cent and will keep stance unchanged, according to a report by Morgan Stanley.
“We were earlier expecting a 35bp increase,however, sticky inflation and continued hawkish stance of DM central banks, warrants continued front loading of rate hikes, in our view,” the report said.
The inflation which is ranging above the upper tolerance band of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for the eighth straight and therefore Morgan Stanley too expect inflation to remain sticky around 7.1-7.4 per cent in September as well, driven by increases in food prices as per high frequency food price trend.
Thereafter, we expect the trend to moderate but remain above 6 per cent until January/Februaru 2023. Risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the upside due to uncertainty around food inflation trajectory (sowing for rice, pulses is lower YoY), changes in global commodity prices and possibility of imported inflation if exchange rate weakens amid dollar strength, the report added.
Going forward, the key to track in the policy will be: (a) changes to growth or inflation forecast. While incoming inflation data is along expected lines,growth for QE Jun was a tad below our expectations (even RBI’s projections), (b) comments around comfort on external balance sheet in the context of external risks and (c) overall tone of the policy statement and path on real rate normalization.
The RBI has lifted the repo rate by 140 basis points and surplus liquidity has fallen significantly (now $19.1 billion from $89 billion in January 2022), pushing the weighted average call rate to 5 per cent from 3.5 per cent in April.
However, the normalization in real rates has been less stark, with real policy rates at -1.6 per cent currently vs. -3.8 per cent in April. The external environment remains challenging, with generally higher commodity prices vs. pre-pandemic, stronger dollar and continued hawkish response from DM central banks. While domestic macro fundamentals are strong, risks from continued elevated commodity prices need to be tracked.
Against this backdrop, we expect monetary policy normalization to continue, pegging the terminal repo rate at 6.5 per cent by February 2023. Risks seem skewed to the upside for the terminal repo rate driven by external factors, which could potentially keep inflation higher for longer.
Business
Nifty to touch 29,094 in 12 months supported by durable earnings, strong macro backdrop

New Delhi, Dec 19: India’s benchmark index Nifty is expected to touch 29,094 in one year based on long‑term valuation averages and earnings durability, a report said on Friday.
Wealth management firm PL Wealth said in the report that India enters the end of 2025 from a position of relative macro strength with record‑low inflation, a dovish monetary stance, resilient domestic demand and improved corporate earnings visibility.
“In the near term, large-cap stocks remain preferred due to their earnings stability and strong balance sheets, while selective exposure to high-quality mid-cap names is being added as visibility improves,” the wealth management firm cited its strategy.
Over the next 6 to 24 months, the earnings cycle is expected to broaden across consumption, financials, capex-linked sectors and select industrials, supported by benign inflation, lower interest rates and sustained domestic liquidity.
“India’s current macro configuration is among the most constructive we have seen in over a decade,” said Inderbir Singh Jolly, CEO, PL Wealth Management.
While global uncertainties will continue to create short-term volatility, India’s structural strengths—policy reform, financialisaton of savings and improving corporate balance sheets—position it well for sustained long-term growth, Inderbir added.
RBI’s 25 basis‑point cut to a 5.25 per cent policy repo rate lowered its CPI inflation projections and upgraded GDP growth estimates, signalling confidence in the sustainability of domestic demand, the report said.
The firm also noted FY26 GDP growth projection of 7.3 per cent underpinned by robust infrastructure spending, resilient consumption and key policy measures such as GST rationalisation and income-tax cuts.
The FY26 September quarter earnings season delivered broad-based strength, with several sectors—including hospitals, capital goods, cement, electronics manufacturing services, ports, NBFCs and telecom—reporting double-digit growth in EBITDA and profits.
The firm noted that Nifty earnings per share estimates for FY26–FY28 imply an earnings CAGR of nearly 14 per cent. Domestic institutional investors have anchored markets with record net inflows of over Rs 6.8 trillion year‑to‑date.
Business
Indian stock markets open higher amid positive global cues

Mumbai, Dec 19: Indian stock markets opened on a positive note on Friday, taking cues from supportive global markets, even as benchmark indices remained on track to close the week in the red for the third consecutive session.
In early trade, the Sensex was trading at 84,866.06, up 384.25 points or 0.45 per cent at around 9:20 AM.
The Nifty index was also higher, quoting at 25,926.90, up 104 points or 0.4 per cent. The index continues to trade within the 25,700–25,900 range, reflecting trader indecision.
“Immediate resistance is placed at 25,900–26,000, while key supports are seen at 25,700 and 25,600,” analysts said.
Buying interest was seen in several heavyweight stocks. Shares of TMPV, Eternal, Infosys, Power Grid, BEL, Sun Pharma, and Bajaj Finserv gained up to 1.5 per cent and emerged as the top performers on the Sensex.
On the other hand, ICICI Bank and Bharti Airtel were the only stocks trading in the red during early deals.
Sectorally, all indices were trading higher. The Nifty Healthcare index led the gains, rising 1.14 per cent, followed closely by the Nifty Pharma index, which was up 1.1 per cent.
The Nifty Auto index also gained around 0.5 to 0.57 per cent.
The broader markets mirrored the positive sentiment, with the Nifty Midcap index gaining 0.45 per cent, while the Nifty Smallcap index was up 0.47 per cent.
Meanwhile, investors remain cautious ahead of several key global and domestic triggers.
Globally, market participants are keeping an eye on retail sales data from the UK, wage tracker data from the euro area, and the US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet numbers. On the domestic front, investors are awaiting the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes and the latest foreign exchange reserve data.
In terms of institutional activity, foreign institutional investors turned net buyers, purchasing shares worth Rs 614.26 crore on Thursday.
Domestic institutional investors also supported the market, with net purchases of Rs 2,525.98 crore during the same session.
Business
India reaches 709 million active UPI QRs, logs 59.33 billion transactions in July-Sep

Mumbai, Dec 18: The unified payments interface (UPI) transaction volumes rose 33.5 per cent (year-on-year) to 59.33 billion transactions in the July-September period, as transaction value grew 21 per cent to Rs 74.84 lakh crore, a report showed on Thursday.
India reached 709 million active UPI QRs, marking a 21 per cent increase since July 2024. Dense QR acceptance across kiranas, pharmacies, transport hubs, and rural markets has made scan-and-pay the default payment mode nationwide, according to the report by Worldline India.
Person-to-merchant (P2M) transactions continued to outpace person-to-person (P2P), reflecting UPI’s dominance in everyday retail payments.
P2M transactions were up 35 per cent to 37.46 billion transactions while P2P transactions rose 29 per cent to 21.65 billion transactions, the report said.
The third quarter (Q3 2025) further reinforced India’s position as the world’s most dynamic real-time payments economy — where every scan, tap, and click is reshaping consumer and merchant behaviour.
The average ticket size declined to Rs 1,262 (from Rs 1,363), highlighting increased usage for micro-transactions such as mobility, food, healthcare essentials, and hyperlocal commerce.
Point of sale (PoS) terminals grew 35 per cent to 12.12 million (July 2024–July 2025). Bharat QR stood at 6.10 million, witnessing marginal decline amid the shift toward UPI QR dominance.
Private banks led acceptance deployment, accounting for 84 per cent market share. While credit card issuance grew by 8 per cent (on-year) to 113.39 million cards, debit cards reached 1.02 billion and prepaid cards stood at 470.1 million.
Credit card transactions grew 26 per cent to 1.45 billion, with transaction value at Rs 6.07 lakh crore. Debit card transactions declined 22 per cent, reflecting migration of low-ticket spends to UPI, the report showed.
Mobile and tap-based payments continued to accelerate, with contactless adoption gaining momentum across metros, mobility services, and quick-service retail.
“The outlook for Q4 2025 and early 2026 points to accelerated innovation and deeper ecosystem integration. Interoperable QR is expected to move from pilot phases to everyday usage across mobility, healthcare, fuel stations, and public utilities—delivering a unified scan-and-pay experience,” the report mentioned.
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