Business
RBI likely to increase repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.9% in Sep policy: Morgan Stanley
 
												The Monetary Policy Committee in the September credit policy is likely to increase the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.90 per cent and will keep stance unchanged, according to a report by Morgan Stanley.
“We were earlier expecting a 35bp increase,however, sticky inflation and continued hawkish stance of DM central banks, warrants continued front loading of rate hikes, in our view,” the report said.
The inflation which is ranging above the upper tolerance band of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for the eighth straight and therefore Morgan Stanley too expect inflation to remain sticky around 7.1-7.4 per cent in September as well, driven by increases in food prices as per high frequency food price trend.
Thereafter, we expect the trend to moderate but remain above 6 per cent until January/Februaru 2023. Risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the upside due to uncertainty around food inflation trajectory (sowing for rice, pulses is lower YoY), changes in global commodity prices and possibility of imported inflation if exchange rate weakens amid dollar strength, the report added.
Going forward, the key to track in the policy will be: (a) changes to growth or inflation forecast. While incoming inflation data is along expected lines,growth for QE Jun was a tad below our expectations (even RBI’s projections), (b) comments around comfort on external balance sheet in the context of external risks and (c) overall tone of the policy statement and path on real rate normalization.
The RBI has lifted the repo rate by 140 basis points and surplus liquidity has fallen significantly (now $19.1 billion from $89 billion in January 2022), pushing the weighted average call rate to 5 per cent from 3.5 per cent in April.
However, the normalization in real rates has been less stark, with real policy rates at -1.6 per cent currently vs. -3.8 per cent in April. The external environment remains challenging, with generally higher commodity prices vs. pre-pandemic, stronger dollar and continued hawkish response from DM central banks. While domestic macro fundamentals are strong, risks from continued elevated commodity prices need to be tracked.
Against this backdrop, we expect monetary policy normalization to continue, pegging the terminal repo rate at 6.5 per cent by February 2023. Risks seem skewed to the upside for the terminal repo rate driven by external factors, which could potentially keep inflation higher for longer.
Business
India aims 300 million tonnes of crude steel production capacity by 2030

New Delhi, Oct 31: India aims to achieve 300 million tonnes of crude steel production capacity by 2030, Union Minister of State for Steel, Bhupathiraju Srinivas Varma, said on Friday.
In a meeting with Sara Modig, State Secretary to Minister for Energy, Business and Industry, Sweden, here, in presence of Swedish Ambassador to India Jan Thesleff and other officials, the minister highlighted India’s growing steel sector, driven by visionary leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Notably, India’s domestic steel demand is growing at an impressive 11-13 per cent, fuelled by large-scale infrastructure projects, while global demand faces a slowdown, according to Steel Ministry.
The discussions were held to explore collaboration opportunities in the field of research and development in Green Steel production and other advanced technologies to reduce carbon emissions.
Varma reaffirmed the invitation extended to Sweden to participate in Bharat Steel 2026, an International Conference-cum-Exhibition dedicated to the steel industry, scheduled to be held on April 16–17, 2026, at Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.
Meanwhile, the growth rate of India’s eight core industries was recorded at 3 per cent in September this year compared to the same month of the previous year, with the steel and cement sectors recording strong growth during the month, data released by the Commerce and Industry Ministry showed.
Steel production surged by a robust 14.1 per cent in September compared to the same month of the previous year on the back of increased demand from big-ticket infrastructure projects being carried out by the government. The cumulative growth of steel during April to Sept of 2025-26 increased by 11 per cent over the corresponding period of the previous year.
The government imposed a 12 per cent temporary safeguard duty on certain steel imports in April 2025 to protect the domestic market. These measures follow previous actions and are part of ongoing efforts to safeguard the industry while promoting self-reliance under initiatives like ‘Make in India’.
Business
India’s fiscal deficit for April-Sep stands at 36.5 pc of full-year target

New Delhi, Oct 31: India’s fiscal deficit for the first six months of the current financial year (April-September) stood at Rs 5.73 lakh crore, which constitutes 36.5 per cent of the annual estimate in the budget, government data released on Friday showed.
The figures show that the fiscal deficit is well under control, which paves the way for stable growth of the economy.
Total receipts stood at Rs 17.30 lakh crore, while overall expenditure during April to September was at 23.03 lakh crore rupees. These comprised 49.5 per cent and 45.5 per cent, respectively, of the target set in the budget for 2025-26.
Revenue receipts stood at Rs 16.95 lakh crore, of which tax revenue comprised Rs 12.29 lakh crore and non-tax revenue worked out to Rs 4.66 lakh crore.
Non-tax revenue jumped as the Reserve Bank of India approved a dividend of Rs 2.69 lakh crore to the central government, up from Rs 2.11 lakh crore transferred last year. This will help the central government reduce its fiscal deficit further.
The total government expenditure during the April-Sept period went up to Rs 23 lakh crore compared with Rs 21.1 lakh crore during the same period of the previous year.
This reflects higher Government expenditure on big-ticket infrastructure projects in the highways, ports and railways sectors, which play a key role in spurring economic growth in the country amid increasing economic uncertainties triggered by geopolitical developments and the US tariff turmoil.
The central government has pegged its fiscal deficit target at 4.9 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in its latest budget for FY25, compared with 5.6 per cent in the last fiscal year, which was lower than the revised estimates of 5.8 per cent.
A declining fiscal deficit reflects the strengthening of the fundamentals of the economy and paves the way for growth with price stability. It leads to a reduction in borrowing by the government, thus leaving more funds in the banking sector for lending to corporates and consumers, which leads to higher economic growth.
With the strong emerging fiscal position in 2025-26, the government is likely to have some additional headroom to meet unforeseen expenditure on account of defence, according to a recent Bank of Baroda report.
The observation assumes importance in the backdrop of the tensions with Pakistan following the Pahalgam terror attack and Operation Sindoor.
Business
Mumbai Infra News: MHADA Selects Firm For Kamathipura Redevelopment Project, Awaits State Nod

Mumbai: In a major step toward transforming one of Mumbai’s oldest and most congested neighbourhoods, the Maharashtra Housing and Area Development Authority (MHADA) has selected AATK Constructions for the long-pending redevelopment of Kamathipura in South Central Mumbai. The project, spread over 34 acres, has now moved to the state government’s high-power committee (HPC) for approval before it goes to the state cabinet for final clearance.
MHADA’s Mumbai Building Repairs and Reconstruction Board (MBRRB) had received two bids, one from AATK Constructions and another from J Kumar Infraprojects. After a detailed evaluation of technical and financial aspects, MHADA declared AATK the successful bidder and forwarded the proposal to the HPC for consideration.
“This urban renewal project will be a historic one,” said MLA Amin Patel, who has been advocating for Kamathipura’s redevelopment for more than a decade. “Bringing landlords, tenants and the government to a consensus was not easy, but this plan will finally offer a dignified living space to thousands.
The Kamathipura Redevelopment Project covers 8,001 tenements, including 6,625 residential and 1,376 commercial units, spread across 943 cessed buildings and involving 800 landowners. Most of these structures are over a century old and beyond repair, with many plots measuring only 50 sq metres, making independent redevelopment unfeasible.
Under the proposed plan, eligible residential occupants will receive 500 sq ft carpet area flats in new towers up to 57 storeys high, while non-residential tenants will get 225 sq ft spaces. Sale buildings will rise to 78 storeys, creating a mixed-use skyline that combines residential, commercial and sale components.
The redevelopment is expected to replace dilapidated tenements with modern high-rise structures equipped with amenities and better infrastructure. Landowners will also benefit from additional entitlements based on plot sizes, with larger plots earning proportionally higher returns.
Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, while addressing the Assembly earlier, acknowledged the significance of the project, noting that he had worked ‘for the people of Kamathipura.’ The state government had earlier entrusted the redevelopment responsibility to MHADA’s MBRRB under the Construction and Development (C&D) format after private developers expressed disinterest due to the complex ownership patterns.
Once approved by the HPC and cabinet, the long-awaited transformation of Kamathipura is expected to finally take off, turning one of Mumbai’s most dilapidated localities into a modern, livable urban zone.
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