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Investors unnerved by lack of transparency in LPG pricing, under recoveries of OMCs

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Lack of transparency in LPG pricing, related under recoveries and inventory gains/losses have unnerved the investors and weighed on their interests in the oil marketing companies.

Rising LPG prices along with the ongoing elections in key states have tested the resolve of the government and the Oil Marketing Companies (IOCL, BPCL and HPCL), Motilal Oswal Institutional Equities said in a note.

While prices of auto fuels have not been changed since early November’21, price of subsidized LPG cylinder has also been retained since November’21.

Prices of auto fuels and LPG are likely to decline in near future along with an expected drop in Brent prices. While the decline in prices should recover some portion of the under-recovery, the same is likely to destroy whatever slight interest the market has in the divestment of BPCL, the report said. Hence, we downgrade BPCL to Neutral. We maintain our Neutral rating on HPCL due to rising debt, project execution risk and reducing leverage to marketing.

Although refining margins have improved, lack of mark-to-market pricing of LPG has once again raised the concerns of yesteryears when the OMCs used to share the burden of under-recoveries. Even if OMCs are not made to share any under-recovery, the continued pricing intervention would make it utterly difficult to divest government’s stake in BPCL.

After netting a total cost of Rs 1.8/lit on each, OMCs would be making net losses of Rs 3.6/lit and Rs 2.8/lit on petrol and diesel, respectively. A change of $1/bbl in benchmark petrol/diesel price makes an impact of 40paise/lit on their margins.

We believe that with the decline in benchmark petrol and diesel prices, the OMCs would be able to recoup their poor profitability rates that are evident currently. However, inability to pass on the cost inflation amid ongoing elections questions the independence of the companies, thereby taking the valuation multiples back to the regime when prices used to be regulated, the report said.

As per our calculation, the total under-recovery will be at Rs 101 billion during October’21-February’22. Further, if we consider no change in LPG price in March’22E, then the total under-recoveries would inflate to Rs 121 billion over October’21-March’22.

Earlier, the OMCs used to clearly earmark their under-recoveries along with compensation/receivables from the government/upstream companies. However, a lack of mention suggests that there is a possibility of them bearing the full burden in FY22E, the report said.

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ED Seizes ₹42 Lakh, Luxury Cars In Mumbai Drug Money Laundering Probe

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Mumbai: The Enforcement Directorate (ED) seized Rs 42 lakh in cash, three luxury cars, property papers, and several digital devices during a search operation on Wednesday targeting a drug trafficking and money laundering network. The agency also froze multiple bank accounts and a locker linked to alleged drug trafficker Faisal Javed Shaikh and his wife, Alfiya Faisal Shaikh.

Officials said the searches were conducted at nine locations across Mumbai under the provisions of the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA), 2002. The operation aimed to trace the drug sale proceeds generated by a well-established narcotics network allegedly operated by the couple.

The ED initiated its money laundering probe based on a case registered by the Narcotics Control Bureau (NCB), Mumbai Zonal Unit, against multiple accused, including Faisal Shaikh, Alfiya Shaikh, and several others, including Ashik Varis Ali, Nasir Khan, Irfan Yusuf Faruqi, Azim Abu Salim Khan alias Azim Bhau, Faizan Mohd. Shafi Shaikh, and Mohd. Shahid Faridudin Chaudhary alias Baboos.

Investigators said Faisal Shaikh was procuring MD (Mephedrone) drugs from Salim Dola, a notorious drug kingpin who has been wanted by law enforcement agencies for his alleged role in large-scale narcotics trafficking. The NCB has announced a reward for information leading to Dola’s arrest.

After securing bail in the NCB case, Shaikh, described by officials as a habitual offender, was placed under preventive detention under the PIT-NDPS Act.

The ED’s probe revealed that Faisal and Alfiya Shaikh allegedly ran a structured network for the sale of MD drugs sourced from Dola. During Wednesday’s searches, the agency also covered premises connected to several individuals associated with shell companies with paper transactions exceeding Rs 100 crore, as well as firms involved in foreign outward remittances and financial dealings with the accused. Officials said these entities are being examined for their possible role in layering drug proceeds and routing the funds abroad through channels such as hawala, shell companies, and trade-based mis-invoicing.

Officials said the ED searches were critical to tracing both the “forward linkage” (movement of drug sale proceeds) and “backward linkage” (sources, beneficiaries, and conduits of funds), including whether the proceeds were channelled abroad via hawala, shell companies, or trade mis-invoicing. The seized and frozen assets including cash, bank accounts, lockers, vehicles, property documents, and digital devices are being examined under the lens of money laundering.

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Stock markets end week on positive note; Banking, IT, and pharma stocks lead gains

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Mumbai, Oct 11: Indian equities ended the week on a positive note amid buying in banking, IT, and pharma stocks (in the last two sessions).

Investors’ sentiment remained firm toward banking stocks during the period, buoyed by the RBI monetary committee decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.5 per cent, and it improved further after the government invited private sector professionals to lead the State Bank of India.

Meanwhile, pharma stocks picked up momentum at the end of the week after the US administration said that they do not plan to impose tariffs on generic drugs and signalled cutting biotech ties with flagged foreign firms, especially from China.

“Pharma stocks rallied as the US revived the Biosecure Act, aiming to cut biotech ties with flagged foreign firms, especially from China, providing a strong boost to Indian CDMOs. With the earnings season underway, investors are closely watching quarterly results for cues on market direction,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited.

On Friday, Indian equity benchmark indices ended higher for the second straight session, supported by strong buying in pharma and banking stocks.

Because of the weakness in IT stocks, the Sensex opened at 82,07,5 down about 100 points. But it quickly bounced back, rising 579 points to an intra-day high of 82,654.

At 82,501, the index ultimately closed 329 points higher, or 0.4 per cent higher. Likewise, the Nifty reached a peak of 25,331 during the day and ended the day 104 points, or 0.4 per cent, higher at 25,285.

“Investor sentiment improved after the government invited private sector professionals to lead the State Bank of India. This marks a broader policy shift towards allowing private participation in public sector enterprises, aimed at enhancing efficiency and governance,” Nair added.

The Nifty index displayed strong bullish momentum over the past week, advancing 391 points or 1.57 per cent, while Sensex rallied over 1,000 points or 1.35 per cent.

“On the weekly chart, the index has formed a cup and handle pattern, and a decisive break out of this formation, supported by increasing volumes, would signal the potential for further sustained upside,” said Hardik Matalia of Choice Equity Broking.

The Bank Nifty (up 1.84 per cent), Nifty IT (up 4.8 per cent) and Nifty Pharma (up 2.12 per cent) fueled the market momentum this week.

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Sensex, Nifty edge higher as geopolitical tensions ease

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New Delhi, Oct 10: Indian stock markets opened on a flat note but soon moved higher on Friday, supported by positive global sentiment.

The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and signs of a possible trade deal between the US and India boosted investor confidence.

After the opening bell, the Sensex gained 148 points, or 0.18 per cent, to trade at 82,320 levels. The Nifty also rose 40 points, or 0.16 per cent, to 25,221 levels.

“Though yesterday’s push higher in the second half failed to clear the week’s high, it did serve to invalidate the bearish bias of the evening star candle stick pattern,” market experts said.

“This encourages us to look for 25460, in the days ahead. For the day, inability to push and float above 25215 or direct fall past 25113, could render the trend sideways, but may not call for a break of 24982 right away,” they added.

In the broader market, the Nifty Midcap 100 index inched up 0.18 per cent, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 advanced 0.28 per cent — indicating healthy participation from mid- and small-cap stocks.

Among the sectoral indices, Nifty Metal was the worst performer, slipping 1.4 per cent. It was followed by weakness in Auto, Pharma, and Healthcare stocks.

On the other hand, sectors such as Banking, Energy, FMCG, IT, Consumer Durables, Oil & Gas, and Realty were trading with gains.

In the Sensex pack, Power Grid, State Bank of India, NTPC, Adani Ports, and Asian Paints were among the top gainers.

Meanwhile, Tata Steel, TCS, Bajaj Finance, M&M, and HCL Tech were trading in the red.

“The overall market environment is turning positive. Globally, the GAZA peace accord signals end to the conflict and reduction of geopolitical risk from the region,” analysts said.

“Domestically, there are indications of a trade deal between US and India with India ‘rebalancing’ its oil purchases,” they added.

According to market analysts, these positive developments and the shift in FII strategy ( FIIs were buyers in the cash market in the last three trading days) bode well for the market.

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