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Indian rupee likely to bounce back strongly in 2nd half of next fiscal: SBI report

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New Delhi, Dec 17: Geopolitical uncertainties driven by the delay in the India-US trade deal have been the single-most important reasons for the rupee sliding against the US dollar, an SBI Research report said on Wednesday, adding that the rupee is likely to bounce back strongly in the second half of the next fiscal.

India’s trade data shows the remarkable resilience in navigating through prolonged uncertainty, more protectionism and labour supply shocks.

“While the geopolitical risk index has moderated since April 2025, the current average value of the index for April-October 2025 is much greater than its decadal average, which indicates how much pressure global uncertainties are exerting on INR,” State Bank of India’s (SBI) Group Chief Economic Advisor, Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, said.

Dr Ghosh further stated that consistent with their empirical analysis, “the rupee is currently in a depreciating regime and is likely to exit it”.

After breaching the psychologically important mark of 90 per US dollar, the rupee crossed the 91-level on Tuesday.

However, the rupee staged a sharp recovery on Wednesday, trading as strong as 90.25 during the day, as the cooling of crude prices also contributed to improved sentiment.

According to the SBI report, the data also indicates that the current fall is the quickest (in terms of number of days) of the rupee, scaled to 5 per USD. In less than a year, the rupee has slid from 85 to 90 per dollar.

The current slide appears to be primarily driven by FPI outflows, chiefly equities (after two years of robust inflows) and uncertainty regarding the US-India trade deal.

Since April 2, 2025, when the US announced sweeping tariff hikes across economies, the Indian rupee (INR) has depreciated by 5.7 per cent against USD (most amongst the major economies), notwithstanding sporadic phases of appreciation owing to optimism over the US-India trade deal.

“While INR is the most depreciated currency, it is not the most volatile. This clearly indicates that the 50 per cent tariff imposed on India is one of the major factors behind the current phase of rupee depreciation,” the SBI report noted.

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Tesla India posts Rs 247 crore revenue in first fiscal of vehicle sales

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The Indian unit of Elon Musk-backed electric vehicle (EV) maker Tesla — Tesla India Motors and Energy — has reported revenue of Rs 247.31 crore and a net profit of Rs 5.16 crore for FY26.

According to regulatory filing, revenue from operations surged nearly 12-fold from Rs 20.83 crore in FY25.

The carmaker’s net profit increased from Rs 55.49 lakh as the company expanded its presence in the Indian market following the launch of its first showroom in Mumbai in 2025. However, FY26 was the first year in which vehicle sales contributed to Tesla India’s reported revenue.

In the previous financial year, the company’s turnover had come entirely from services-related operations.

Vehicle sales generated Rs 214.69 crore during FY26, accounting for nearly 87 per cent of total revenue, while services contributed Rs 32.40 crore.

The performance came despite a relatively small sales base as the company recorded 346 vehicle registrations in India between September 2025 and March 2026.

Meanwhile, registrations accelerated to 650 units during April-September FY27, surpassing the entire previous year’s tally within the first six months of the fiscal year.

Average monthly registrations rose from around 49 units during the initial launch phase to about 108 units.

Apart from that, the company strengthened its balance sheet through fresh capital infusion.

Filings showed Tesla injected about Rs 86 crore into its Indian subsidiary during FY26.

In addition, cash expenditure on property, plant and equipment and capital work-in-progress climbed to Rs 62.54 crore in FY26 which was higher than Rs 1.16 crore in the previous year.

Earlier in October, CEO Musk showcased a new version of its Roadster sports car — a prototype that briefly lifted off the ground during a demonstration at a SpaceX facility in Texas.

He highlighted that the vehicle navigated an elevated curved track before becoming airborne for a short distance and landing safely, drawing comparisons to the concept of a flying car.

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Shriram Finance shares fall over 6 pc, hit 11-month low on growth cut

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Shares of non-banking financial company Shriram Finance on Monday traded more than 6 per cent lower, hitting an 11-month low and emerged as the top Nifty loser.

The NBFC stock declined as much as 6.55 per cent to 810.20, recording an intraday low on the BSE in morning trade.

It was trading at Rs 829.20, a decrease of 4.36 per cent by 10:57 am.

The selling pressure in the stock came after the NBFC firm cut its loan growth forecast and flagged higher credit costs, overshadowing better-than-expected Q2 profit.

Moreover, the company cut its assets under management (AUM) growth guidance for FY27 to 15-17 per cent from 18 per cent, citing weak monsoon and geopolitical uncertainty and pressure on borrowers in drought-hit regions.

Meanwhile, analysts flagged asset quality concerns with reducing share price targets.

Analysts at global brokerage Jefferies said credit costs could stay elevated for one to two more quarters due to stress in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Telangana.

According to domestic brokerage Motilal Oswal, higher slippages and write-offs reflected drought-like conditions in several states, though overall asset quality remained broadly stable.

“SHFL delivered a mixed quarter, with PPoP beating estimates on higher NIM and lower opex, while earnings were in line due to higher credit costs. AUM growth at 17 per cent YoY was stronger than estimated,” it said.

Similarly, JM Financial said rising early delinquencies and rural stress remain key concerns. The brokerage also stated, “Deteriorating asset quality indicators amid drought-like conditions remain a concern.” However, the stock has corrected 14 per cent over the past month. Recent equity infusion and rating upgrades to AAA should cushion margins.

On the aforesaid exchange, the NBFC stock has recorded a 52-week high of Rs 1,153.65 and a 52-week low of Rs 710.40.

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FPI selling stands at Rs 53,337 crore in Oct so far amid elevated crude oil prices

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As long as Brent crude remains above $100 a barrel, there will be pressures on the economy and the foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are likely to sell the dip, analysts said on Sunday.

The total FPI selling in October stands at Rs 53,337 crore so far, and the net FPI investment through the IPO market during this period stands at Rs 5,281 crore.

“The total FPI selling through the exchanges for this year stood at Rs 3,69,164 crore,” said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Ltd.

On the flows front, FIIs remained net sellers for the 10th straight week. For the week ended October 23, FIIs significantly reduced their selling and even turned buyers on two days.

The moderation in US bond yields with the 10-year yield declining from 5.36 per cent to around 5 per cent, appreciation in the rupee to 94.94 to the dollar and the low valuations, particularly of the large-caps, contributed to the moderation in FII selling.

Going ahead, the steady moderation in FII selling offers some comfort, though elevated crude and sharp broader-market weakness keep the downside risk alive.

A significant market trend during the week was the sharp correction in the mid-and small-caps.

The Nifty Mid-cap 100 plunged 5.6 per cent and the Nifty Small-cap 100 crashed 7.3 per cent during the week while the Nifty 50 was relatively resilient with a cut of only 2.35 per cent.

Forced liquidation in the margin-funded long positions in the broader market is rumoured to have triggered the crash in the broader market, said analysts.

The resilience of the large-caps is mainly due to the accumulation of the fairly valued large-caps by the DIIs which are flush with funds.

The high crude prices is acting as a strong headwind for the economy and market, said analysts.

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