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Indian rupee likely to bounce back strongly in 2nd half of next fiscal: SBI report

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New Delhi, Dec 17: Geopolitical uncertainties driven by the delay in the India-US trade deal have been the single-most important reasons for the rupee sliding against the US dollar, an SBI Research report said on Wednesday, adding that the rupee is likely to bounce back strongly in the second half of the next fiscal.

India’s trade data shows the remarkable resilience in navigating through prolonged uncertainty, more protectionism and labour supply shocks.

“While the geopolitical risk index has moderated since April 2025, the current average value of the index for April-October 2025 is much greater than its decadal average, which indicates how much pressure global uncertainties are exerting on INR,” State Bank of India’s (SBI) Group Chief Economic Advisor, Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, said.

Dr Ghosh further stated that consistent with their empirical analysis, “the rupee is currently in a depreciating regime and is likely to exit it”.

After breaching the psychologically important mark of 90 per US dollar, the rupee crossed the 91-level on Tuesday.

However, the rupee staged a sharp recovery on Wednesday, trading as strong as 90.25 during the day, as the cooling of crude prices also contributed to improved sentiment.

According to the SBI report, the data also indicates that the current fall is the quickest (in terms of number of days) of the rupee, scaled to 5 per USD. In less than a year, the rupee has slid from 85 to 90 per dollar.

The current slide appears to be primarily driven by FPI outflows, chiefly equities (after two years of robust inflows) and uncertainty regarding the US-India trade deal.

Since April 2, 2025, when the US announced sweeping tariff hikes across economies, the Indian rupee (INR) has depreciated by 5.7 per cent against USD (most amongst the major economies), notwithstanding sporadic phases of appreciation owing to optimism over the US-India trade deal.

“While INR is the most depreciated currency, it is not the most volatile. This clearly indicates that the 50 per cent tariff imposed on India is one of the major factors behind the current phase of rupee depreciation,” the SBI report noted.

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Indian markets trade higher in early deals despite renewed geopolitical tensions

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Mumbai, July 9: Indian equity benchmarks advanced in early trade on Thursday despite renewed geopolitical tensions and a rebound in crude oil prices to the $80-a-barrel mark.

Sensex surged as much as 0.32 per cent or about 250 points to hit an intraday high of 76,752 in morning trade, while Nifty climbed 0.20 per cent or 46.90 points to 23,928.95.

Sectorally, Nifty Consumer Durables led the gains, rising 1.39 per cent, followed by Nifty Mid-Small Financial Services (0.95 per cent), Nifty Cement (0.69 per cent), Nifty Private Bank (0.66 per cent), Nifty PSU Bank (0.64 per cent) and Nifty Auto (0.62 per cent).

In contrast, Nifty IT emerged as the top sectoral loser, declining more than 1 per cent.

Among Nifty constituents, Infosys, HCLTech, Tech Mahindra, TCS, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories and Hindalco Industries fell between 1 and 2 per cent.

According to market experts, geopolitical tensions have once again weighed on investor sentiment, with US President Donald Trump’s remarks on Iran triggering selling pressure in the market.

However, they noted that Brent crude at around $80 a barrel was not yet a major concern for India, adding that continued foreign institutional investor (FII) buying and stable oil prices could help large-cap stocks, especially financials and automobiles, remain resilient.

Moreover, the American President Trump has said that the US had carried out fresh strikes against Iran overnight in response to what he described as Iranian attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

He said, “To me, I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them anymore. They’re scum…They are sick people. They’re led by sick people. They are vicious, violent people and if they had a nuclear weapon, they would use it. As far as I am concerned, it’s over. I’ll speak to our negotiators. They want to negotiate. As far as I’m concerned, it’s just a waste of time dealing with them. They’re liars. We make a deal…Everyone’s agreed. No nuclear weapon. We make a deal. They go outside and talk to the press. They say we never even talked about it. There’s something wrong with them. They’re cuckoo. As far as I’m concerned, it’s over.”

International benchmark Brent crude rose 1.49 per cent to around $80 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained more than 2 per cent to $75 a barrel.

Asian markets were mixed. Japan’s Nikkei rose nearly 2 per cent, while South Korea’s Kospi edged higher. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, however, declined about 1 per cent.

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Crude oil surges over 6 pc to near $80 as Trump says Iran ceasefire is ‘over’

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New Delhi, July 8: Global crude oil prices surged more than 6 per cent on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran was effectively over following a fresh round of American military strikes on Iran, intensifying concerns over energy supplies from West Asia.

International oil benchmark Brent crude climbed as much as 6.52 per cent or $4.69 to trade near $80 a barrel. Similarly, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) advanced more than 6 per cent or $4.85 to around $75 a barrel.

Speaking in Ankara on the sidelines of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit, Trump told reporters that the US had carried out fresh strikes against Iran overnight in response to what he described as Iranian attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

He said, “To me, I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them anymore. They’re scum…They are sick people. They’re led by sick people. They are vicious, violent people and if they had a nuclear weapon, they would use it. As far as I am concerned, it’s over. I’ll speak to our negotiators. They want to negotiate. As far as I’m concerned, it’s just a waste of time dealing with them. They’re liars. We make a deal…Everyone’s agreed. No nuclear weapon. We make a deal. They go outside and talk to the press. They say we never even talked about it. There’s something wrong with them. They’re cuckoo. As far as I’m concerned, it’s over.”

Trump also described Iranian leaders in strongly critical terms and said he no longer wished to pursue negotiations with Tehran, expressing scepticism about the prospects of any future agreement.

His remarks came amid renewed tensions in the region following a series of attacks on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route.

The sharp rise in crude prices weighed on investor sentiment, with Indian equity markets witnessing broad-based selling.

As of 3 pm, Sensex fell around 1,900 points or more than 2 per cent to 76,259, while Nifty was down nearly 600 points or over 2 per cent at 23,805.

The latest rally in crude prices marked a sharp reversal from earlier expectations of abundant supply after OPEC+ announced higher production quotas and major Middle Eastern producers increased output.

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee weakened by 20 paise to 95.16 against the US dollar in early trade. The domestic currency opened at 95.15 against the greenback.

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South Indian Bank shares tank 10 pc after RBI nod for new CEO

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Shares of private lender South Indian Bank tumbled nearly 10 per cent on Wednesday after the lender announced that it had received the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) approval for the appointment of Mahesh Muralidhar Pai as its Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer (MD & CEO).

The private banking stock declined as much as 9.86 per cent to Rs 43.02 on the BSE. At around 12:05 pm, it was trading at Rs 44.23, down more than 7 per cent.

In a regulatory filing, the private sector lender said the RBI has approved the appointment of Pai as MD and CEO for a period of three years with effect from October 1.

The bank said the proposal for Pai’s appointment will be placed before its Board of Directors at the meeting scheduled for July 16.

In addition, the appointment will require shareholders’ approval in accordance with the Companies Act, 2013, and the SEBI (Listing Obligations and Disclosure Requirements) Regulations.

Pai (50) is currently serving as Chief General Manager at Canara Bank, where he heads digital banking and innovation, according to the exchange filing.

With nearly three decades of banking experience, he has worked across governance, strategy, treasury, foreign exchange, retail banking, agriculture and MSME credit. He has also led several strategic initiatives at Canara Bank, including the establishment of its gold loan vertical, and has previously headed one of the bank’s largest zones.

Moreover, he serves as a Director on the boards of Karnataka State Financial Corporation and Canara Bank Securities Ltd, the filing added.

According to BSE data, the stock has touched a 52-week high of Rs 49.90 and a 52-week low of Rs 28.13.

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