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Indian rupee likely to bounce back strongly in 2nd half of next fiscal: SBI report

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New Delhi, Dec 17: Geopolitical uncertainties driven by the delay in the India-US trade deal have been the single-most important reasons for the rupee sliding against the US dollar, an SBI Research report said on Wednesday, adding that the rupee is likely to bounce back strongly in the second half of the next fiscal.

India’s trade data shows the remarkable resilience in navigating through prolonged uncertainty, more protectionism and labour supply shocks.

“While the geopolitical risk index has moderated since April 2025, the current average value of the index for April-October 2025 is much greater than its decadal average, which indicates how much pressure global uncertainties are exerting on INR,” State Bank of India’s (SBI) Group Chief Economic Advisor, Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, said.

Dr Ghosh further stated that consistent with their empirical analysis, “the rupee is currently in a depreciating regime and is likely to exit it”.

After breaching the psychologically important mark of 90 per US dollar, the rupee crossed the 91-level on Tuesday.

However, the rupee staged a sharp recovery on Wednesday, trading as strong as 90.25 during the day, as the cooling of crude prices also contributed to improved sentiment.

According to the SBI report, the data also indicates that the current fall is the quickest (in terms of number of days) of the rupee, scaled to 5 per USD. In less than a year, the rupee has slid from 85 to 90 per dollar.

The current slide appears to be primarily driven by FPI outflows, chiefly equities (after two years of robust inflows) and uncertainty regarding the US-India trade deal.

Since April 2, 2025, when the US announced sweeping tariff hikes across economies, the Indian rupee (INR) has depreciated by 5.7 per cent against USD (most amongst the major economies), notwithstanding sporadic phases of appreciation owing to optimism over the US-India trade deal.

“While INR is the most depreciated currency, it is not the most volatile. This clearly indicates that the 50 per cent tariff imposed on India is one of the major factors behind the current phase of rupee depreciation,” the SBI report noted.

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Captive coal mines register robust output growth in April-September FY27

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India’s captive mines produced 68.98 million tonnes (MT) of coal up to September 10 in the current financial year, up from 65.78 MT in the corresponding period of FY 2025-26, which represents a year-on-year growth of 5 per cent, or an additional 3.2 MT, and this also comes on a base that was itself 10.12 per cent higher than the previous year, the Coal Ministry said on Friday.

The gain has been recorded in the first five months of the current financial year, which include the monsoon, when mining and evacuation are at their most difficult, a ministry statement said.

Dispatch from captive mines has also been better than the previous year. Captive mines dispatched 75.68 MT against 71.43 MT last year, a growth of 5.94 per cent and an increase of 4.25 MT.

Provisional figures indicate the pace is picking up further as the monsoon begins to recede. In the ten days between September 1 and September 10, captive mines produced 4.12 MT and dispatched 4.21 MT.

New capacity is being added steadily to this base. Nine captive and commercial mines are expected to commence production during FY 2026-27, with a combined peak rated capacity of 20.67 MT. Three of these, with a peak capacity of 7.51 MT, have already started production during the current year. The remaining six are expected to commence production soon during the year, according to the statement.

On this footing, production from captive mines is expected to cross 190 MT in FY 2026-27. Together with commercial mines, the two segments are expected to exceed 228 MT during the current financial year, the statement said.

Captive mines have been a mainstay of coal production, and their output has grown steadily, with annual production recording a robust 10.1 per cent rise from 167.44 million tonnes (MT) in FY 2024-25 to 184 MT in FY 2025-26.

Along with commercial mines, which produced around 26 MT, the captive and commercial segment together accounted for 210 MT in FY 2025-26 against 190.95 MT the previous year.

Captive and commercial mines account for about 21 per cent of total domestic coal production, which stood at 1,039 MT in FY 2025-26 and has remained above one billion tonnes for the second year running. This performance has carried into the current financial year, the statement added.

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Indian equities expected to see re‑rating as H2 earnings pick up: Report

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Indian equities could be set for a re‑rating as second‑half earnings accelerate and domestic institutional capital returns, a report said on Friday.

The report from Omniscience Capital said that the consolidation phase should be treated as an accumulation window rather than as an opportunity to chase recent performance.

The firm said that opportunities lie in businesses benefiting from structural capital expenditure, energy transition and infrastructure development.

The report cautioned that pockets of the mid‑ and small‑cap segments remain richly valued and urged selective deployment into high‑quality growth businesses available at discounted valuations.

Opportunities are concentrated in businesses exposed to sustained growth and operating leverage but available at favourable valuations, the report noted.

Key areas include banking and financial services, infrastructure and power, and business services, supported by resilient credit growth, rising electricity demand and a recovery in corporate capex.

The moderation in Indian equity valuations has led to renewed institutional interest, with foreign investors turning net buyers on multiple occasions after a two-year moderation in valuations.

Domestic fundamentals remain supportive, with FY27 real GDP growth estimated at around 7 per cent even though crude oil prices call for caution.

With direct, retaliatory military actions between the US and Iran, the hope for a diplomatic resolution through a longer-term peace deal has taken a severe blow, the report forecasted.

“Multi-year forward earnings execution is fully priced in, leaving prospective returns barely near the discount rate while exposing investors to severe de-rating risk,” said Ashwin K. Shami, President & Chief Portfolio Manager, OmniScience Capital.

The firm saw a valuation disconnect across market capitalisations, with Nifty Smallcap 250 and Midcap 150 trading at trailing P/E multiples of around 34-fold and 30-fold, respectively, compared with around 20-fold for Nifty 100.

Global equity markets continue to contend with elevated risk-free rates, with US 10-year Treasury yields near one-year highs of 4.6 per cent-4.7 per cent, while geopolitical tensions have added volatility to crude oil and commodities. The US Federal Reserve’s policy decision on September 16 remains a near-term factor for Treasury yields and global risk appetite.

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SIP inflows hit record Rs 32,297 crore in August, gold ETF inflows jump 67 pc to Rs 2,596.70 crore: AMFI

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New Delhi, Sep 10: Inflows into gold Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) surged nearly 67 per cent in August 2026 as investors increased their exposure to the precious metal amid a sharp rise in domestic gold prices, according to the latest data released by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) on Thursday.

Gold ETFs received net inflows of Rs 2,596.70 crore in August, compared with Rs 1,559 crore in July. The category recorded positive inflows for the third consecutive month, reflecting continued investor interest in gold-linked investment products.

The increase in gold ETF investments came as domestic gold prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) rose 7.7 per cent during August, making the precious metal one of the key investment avenues during the month.

Silver ETFs also continued to attract investors, recording net inflows of Rs 1,270.63 crore in August.

In the equity mutual fund segment, actively managed equity schemes saw net inflows rise to Rs 29,328.62 crore in August from Rs 24,697.39 crore in July, indicating sustained investor participation despite fluctuations in the broader market.

Overall, the mutual fund industry recorded net inflows of Rs 41,353.60 crore in August, significantly lower than the Rs 2.35 lakh crore recorded in July. The sharp month-on-month decline was largely influenced by flows in the debt fund segment.

Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) contributions, however, continued to strengthen and reached a record high of Rs 32,297 crore in August, compared with Rs 31,961 crore in July. The steady rise in SIP contributions highlights continued retail investor participation in mutual funds.

Debt funds registered a net outflow of Rs 8,127.32 crore in August, reversing from a net inflow of Rs 1.87 lakh crore in July.

Meanwhile, the mutual fund SIP inflows increased marginally month-on-month to a record high of Rs 32,297 crore in August, compared with Rs 31,961 crore in July. On a year-on-year basis, SIP inflows rose 14 per cent from Rs 28,265 crore recorded in August 2025.

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