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Xi Jinping expects to be in command till 2035

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Certainly, some critique put him on a par with Deng Xiaoping or even Mao Zedong. Some years ago, Xi Jinping had made a classic statement – “One must build a good cage. If the cage is too loose, or is very good but the door is not closed, and one is free to go in and out, then that is of no use.”

Now, the Communists party in China moves on to a new central task — to achieve the “second centenary goal of building China into a great modern socialist country in all respects and to advance the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation on all fronts through a Chinese path to modernisation.

The mega Chinese goal is tied to the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China — which would be 2049 — but Xi has pushed the date for “basically” realizing this goal forward to 2035.

Conveniently, that leaves the door open for Xi to still be in command of the party at the big celebration 13 years from now.

Marxists in once upon a time Red forte Tripura – used to often say the line from a play. The line of the play was of course penned obviously with a pro-Left liberal sentiment:

“Every war or struggle is for power; and power can never do good to anybody”.

The economic policy that Xi has put forward contains a similar sort of contradiction.

The central idea of the “dual circulation” policy is that China should increase its trade surplus with the wider world, while simultaneously becoming more dependent on its domestic economy to drive consumption.

Many economists think that this will be a hard balance to manage. But, in a sense, the strategy should not be seen as an exercise in economics but in politics. It mirrors precisely the idea of being highly connected to the world while closed to it physically.

But compared with real openness, it is one that would leave both sides poorer.

“China remains connected to the outside world largely through the virtual environment, in particular social media and video apps. Yet the vision of the world created within the country is very partial. State media pumps out images of the west still devastated by the virus,” says an article ‘The Guardian’.

China, Xi – And Peace in India’s North East

This is one of the most perilous periods in international history. There’s something big happening everywhere — China, Ukraine, Indo Pacific and of course Britain where Liz Truss had the shortest stint ever in history as Prime Minister.

On the last day of Communists Party Congress in China on Saturday, Oct 22, former President Hu Jintao, was ‘removed’ unceremoniously and by force by so-called ‘unnamed Chinese communist agents’.

Both China and the Chinese communists have many admirers in India and also in the northeast closer home as well.

To them New Delhi ‘could not be trusted’ but Xi Jinping’s polity should be applauded.

China is that country which has seen almost 30 years of 9 and 10 per cent of average growth even till fiscal 2016-17.

This was surely an unprecedented performance by any country at the global stage.

Importantly, during this period, around 50 per cent of global growth came from China and India was by default and otherwise part of the beneficiary list.

The drop in Chinese growth rate had impacted global trade and commerce too. In fact, the global trade shrunk as a result of the negative impact on China’s own growth graph.

At one time even India benefited and the country’s global trade was growing at an average of seven percent a year.

The politics of China and also the other global challenges make a lot of sense even in the neighbourhood.

It would impact now and it impacted regional politics even in the past.

In the context of northeast India, Mon and Tuensang were the battlefields of various ultra groups.

In the eighties, Indian security force reports used to suggest that communist China’s help and logistic support was crucial at least for one camp

Even the church lobby was unhappy.

One such internal security analysis had said that the league of western Christian countries led by the US and the United Kingdom were bemused while the Indian jawans reportedly watched from a distance what they called a snake-mongoose fight.

But enough water has flown in river Dhansiri near Dimapur since then. ‘Christ’ and his principles and values are now a public pledge. ‘Nagaland for Christ’ – as they put it.

However, it is altogether a different chapter that violence and threats pursue at different levels.

According to the annual report of the Ministry of Home Affairs, 2020, incidents of insurgency in six out of eight northeastern states declined by 80 per cent since 2014 and civilian deaths were down by 99 per cent.

The year 2020 also had recorded the lowest insurgency incidents and casualties among civilians and security forces in the last decades. This was the year of the Galwan valley conflict nevertheless.

But around September 2020, in a retort to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statement aimed at China that — the era of expansionism is over — the rebels also had issued a joint statement saying, as the entire world has made up its mind against expansionism, the people of West Southeast Asia are also countering the expansionism of India.

One must study these statements based on the availability of Chinese-made arms in the Northeast.

In 2020, when it was realised at the Government of India level that the Naga peace talks had been stalled, as expected the apprehension was Chinese hands.

On September 18, 2020, there was a clear setback to all efforts for reconciliation as the NSCN-IM issued a statement from its headquarters saying a separate Naga flag and constitution “must form a part of the Indo-Naga political solution”.

Given the contest, one source had said even during the UPA regime in 2011-12, Chinese agents including a woman posing as a TV journalist reportedly visited the headquarters of the NSCN-IM near Dimapur and held a three-hour-long meeting with top NSCN-IM leaders.

On September 28, 2022, NSCN-IM issued a statement alleging that the government of India has “hindered” the peace parleys.

It also said, “therefore there is an imperative need for third party intervention” in Naga talks.

International News

UAE, Egyptian presidents hold talks on ties, regional issues

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Abu Dhabi, Jan 17: President of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and his Egyptian counterpart, Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, held discussions on bilateral relations and pressing regional issues.

The talks, which took place during Sisi’s working visit to the UAE on Thursday, focused on expanding bilateral cooperation across development, economic, and investment sectors, aiming to align with the two nations’ shared aspirations for progress and prosperity.

On regional issues, the two leaders welcomed the announcement of a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

They emphasised the importance of ensuring adequate humanitarian aid reaches the enclave.

During the meeting, His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed and President El-Sisi also reviewed a number of regional and international issues of mutual concern, exchanging views on key developments, particularly in the Middle East.

Both leaders reaffirmed the need for continued efforts to implement the two-state solution, recognising it as the pathway to achieving lasting and comprehensive peace and stability in the region.

During the talks, Mohamed commended Egypt’s role in supporting the Palestinian people and brokering the Gaza ceasefire agreement.The ceasefire agreement was brokered through weeks of negotiations in Doha by Qatar, Egypt, and the US.The initial release prioritises women, children, elderly individuals, and those who are ill or injured.

The two leaders also lauded the election of Joseph Aoun as the president of Lebanon, expressing optimism that Aoun would lead Lebanon to stability.

On the developments in Syria, both presidents reaffirmed their shared commitment to the country’s unity, stability, and sovereignty, calling for an inclusive political process that engages all sectors of Syrian society.

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International News

Gaza hostage deal reached, confirms Israeli PM Netanyahu

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Jerusalem, Jan 17: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed on Friday that a deal has been reached to release hostages held in Gaza and to implement a ceasefire, following intense negotiations between Israeli and Hamas teams in Qatar, Israeli media reported.

Israeli media quoted a statement from Benjamin Netanyahu’s office as saying the Israeli prime minister had convened a security cabinet meeting for Friday to hold a vote on the deal, with a full cabinet session to follow for official approval. Netanyahu was informed by the Israeli negotiating team that the deal had been successfully concluded, and he thanked them for their efforts.

The deal, which marks a significant step toward ending the 15-month-long conflict, will see the release of dozens of hostages held by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. Netanyahu’s office confirmed that the families of the remaining 98 hostages had been updated and preparations are underway for their return.

“The (full cabinet) will later convene to approve the deal,” Netanyahu’s office said in its statement, adding that Netanyahu had expressed his gratitude to the negotiating team, who had informed him about the deal’s completion.

Netanyahu’s office added: “The state of Israel is committed to achieving all the goals of the war, including the return of all our hostages, both the living and the dead.”

The agreement, announced by mediators on Wednesday — Qatar, the US, and Egypt — will lead to the phased release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, and also see a pause in fighting in Gaza.

Despite the breakthrough, the approval process has faced some delays. Initially, Netanyahu’s office had signalled concerns over last-minute snags in the negotiations, accusing Hamas of reneging on parts of the deal.

Earlier on Thursday, Netanyahu’s office said the cabinet won’t meet to approve the agreement for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of dozens of hostages until Hamas backs down, accusing the group of reneging on parts of the agreement in an attempt to gain further concessions. These issues had delayed the approval of the ceasefire and hostage exchange, but the deal was eventually finalised.

The release of the first group of hostages, initially scheduled for Sunday, is now expected to occur on Monday, following the delay in cabinet approval. The vote within the Israeli government is expected to be contentious, with reports suggesting that some members of Netanyahu’s coalition government may oppose the deal, potentially threatening to resign.

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disaster

Next few days critical as weather emerges key factor in containing LA wildfires

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Los Angeles, Jan 16: It has been over a week since the massive wildfires broke out in Los Angeles, fueled by hurricane-strength Santa Ana winds, causing some of the most catastrophic fire scenes California has ever witnessed.

The fires, centered around the Palisades and nearby Eaton areas, remain largely uncontained. With the return of Santa Ana winds, the risk of further spread or new ignitions grows.

To date, these fierce wildfires have claimed at least 25 lives, destroyed over 12,300 structures, and scorched more than 40,600 acres (about 164 square km).

So, when will these fires end, and what do firefighters need to stop them?

It is difficult to determine when the fires will be contained. The main variables are wind and rain or the lack thereof.

“The weather plays a driving factor in all this because they’ve been in critical fire behavior for so long,” said Joe Ten Eyck, the wildfire/urban-interface fire programmes coordinator for the International Association of Fire Fighters.

Currently, the outlook is not encouraging. Dry conditions and strong winds are expected to persist, making the next few days critical. The US National Weather Service (NWS) predicts cooler temperatures towards the end of the week, with a slight chance of rain early next week, but no significant precipitation in the near term.

While the Santa Ana winds briefly eased over the weekend, they are expected to intensify again, possibly fueling rapid fire spread and erratic behaviour.

If the winds shift toward the coast, they could help contain the Palisades Fire by pushing it back onto already burned areas. However, strong winds also risk reigniting the fires before conditions improve later in the week.

“We need Mother Nature to give us a break,” Deputy Chief Brice Bennett of the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire) told CNN. “We have the firefighters, we have the water, we need the time.”

Even when the flames are put out, recovery will be a lengthy and complex process. In just the first two weeks of 2025, more than 100 wildfires have scorched nearly 40,000 acres in California, far exceeding the five-year average of 46 fires and 13 acres.

Cal Fire noted the massive increases and emphasised the importance of being prepared. “Now more than ever, it’s critical to harden your home against wildfires and create defensible space around your property.”

Homeowners are urged to clear dry vegetation, create defensible space and use fire-resistant materials to protect their properties.

Up to 200,000 people have been displaced by the fires. As of Wednesday, some 82,400 residents were under evacuation orders and another 90,400 faced evacuation warnings, according to Los Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna.

California Governor Gavin Newsom has described the recovery effort as a “herculean task.” Debris removal from affected homes is expected to take six to nine months, with challenges like toxic waste cleanup and coordinating rebuilding efforts.

The increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires are part of a larger trend tied to human-caused climate change. Extreme weather events like wildfires are becoming more common, destructive and deadly.

Los Angeles County, ranked as the most disaster-prone region in the United States, has taken steps to create climate-resilient communities and infrastructure. However, as wildfires grow more severe, firefighters face mounting challenges in preventing new fires and mitigating damage.

Experts acknowledge that climate change is making such disasters harder to control. The NWS has warned about the dangerous combination of dry winds and drought conditions, noting that any new fire could spread rapidly.

As wildfires become a more persistent threat, questions about the region’s ability to recover and prepare for a warming world loom large. The dual challenge of adapting to climate change while addressing immediate recovery efforts underscores the urgency of long-term solutions.

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