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World Bank warns of rises in food, energy prices due to Russia-Ukraine conflict

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The Russia-Ukraine conflict has dealt “a major shock” to commodity markets, altering global patterns of trade, production and consumption, the World Bank (WB) said in a report released on Tuesday.

The increase in energy prices over the past two years has been the largest since the year 1973, according to the WB’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook report, Xinhua news agency reported.

Price increases for food commodities, of which Russia and Ukraine are large producers, and fertilisers, which rely on natural gas as a production input, have been the largest since 2008, the report noted.

The report estimated that energy prices are expected to rise more than 50 per cent in 2022 before easing in 2023 and 2024.

The price of Brent crude oil is expected to average $100 a barrel in 2022, its highest level since 2013 and an increase of more than 40 per cent compared to 2021. Prices are expected to moderate to $92 in 2023, still well above the five-year average of $60 a barrel.

Non-energy prices, including agriculture and metals, are projected to increase almost 20 per cent in 2022 and will also moderate in the following years.

Wheat prices are forecast to increase more than 40 per cent, reaching an all-time high in nominal terms this year. Metal prices are projected to increase by 16 per cent in 2022 before easing in 2023 but will remain at elevated levels.

Commodity prices are expected to remain well above the most recent five-year average, according to the report.

In the event of a prolonged conflict or additional sanctions on Russia, prices could be even higher and more volatile than currently projected, it added.

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Banks Expect Increased Credit Demand Across Retail, MSME, & Agricultural Segments After GST Reforms

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New Delhi: With the Goods and Services Tax (GST) reforms, banks expect increased credit demand across retail, MSME, and agricultural segments as incomes rise and business investment picks up.

According to Ajay Kumar Srivastava, MD and CEO, Indian Overseas Bank, the reform will create a strong effect across the economy, leading to improved cashflows for distributors and retailers, greater working capital access for small businesses, and expanded credit requirements amid rising demand.

“Overall, this decision acts as a catalyst for inclusive growth and economic transformation aligning itself to India’s vision of Viksit Bharat”, said Srivastava. This move makes taxation more transparent and easier to follow. “We expect these measures will drive an estimated growth in consumption over 8-10 per cent in the next two quarters in rural markets, particularly benefiting farmers through reduced costs on agricultural products where GST has been brought down from the 12 per cent to 5 per cent,” according to Srivastava.

The price cuts on daily essentials like dairy products, household items, and consumer durables will provide more relief and reduce the burden to the consumers. The reduced GST on vehicles, electronics, and housing materials will create demand for these segments, while making insurance policies completely tax-free will enhance financial inclusion.

According to Sanjay Agarwal, Senior Director, CareEdge Ratings, GST rate cuts result in a decrease in the final price of goods and services, which enhances consumer purchasing power and could stimulate demand across various sectors.

The impact is generally visible in the consumer durables segment. Lower GST rates on automobiles, electronics, and appliances not only make these products more affordable but also expand the addressable market to include price-sensitive consumers who were previously priced out.

“Banks could see an increase in auto loans, personal loans for electronics purchases,” he mentioned. Outstanding housing loans, vehicle loans, credit card and consumer durables account for around 16.7 per cent, 3.5 per cent, 1.6 per cent and 0.1 per cent of banking credit, respectively.

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Auto Stocks Zoom On GST Rate Cuts, Hyundai Tops Gainers As Market Anticipates Festive Season Boost

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Mumbai: On Friday, auto stocks saw a strong rally after the GST Council’s decision to cut tax rates on small cars and motorcycles. The BSE Auto Index rose by 1.30 percent, closing at 58,883.09 points. This surge came as the market responded positively to the new two-slab GST system — 5 percent and 18 percent — announced to take effect from September 22, the first day of Navaratri.

Hyundai Motor India led the auto sector gains, rising 2.69 percent on the BSE. Other top performers included Eicher Motors (+2.43 percent), Mahindra & Mahindra (+2.34 percent), and Ashok Leyland (+2.22 percent).

Maruti Suzuki also climbed 1.70 percent, while TVS Motor went up 1.28 percent. Smaller gains were seen in Sona BLW (0.80 percent), Bharat Forge (0.77 percent), Tata Motors (0.63 percent), Bajaj Auto (0.22 percent), and Hero MotoCorp (0.21 percent).

The reduction in GST rates from 28 percent to 18 percent on many popular vehicle categories is being seen as a major positive move. It affects petrol, LPG, and CNG vehicles with engine sizes under 1,200cc and length under 4,000 mm, and diesel vehicles under 1,500cc and 4,000 mm. Two-wheelers like motorcycles under 350cc will also now attract 18 percent GST, down from the current 28 percent.

Experts believe the decision will benefit first-time buyers and middle-class families, especially during the upcoming festive season. According to Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking, the move is ‘timely and will inject fresh momentum’ into the auto sector. Industry players say this will not only boost sales but also investor confidence in automotive stocks.

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Indian stock market opens higher, Nifty above 24,700

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Mumbai, Sep 5: The Indian benchmark indices opened higher on Friday, buoyed by transformative rate reductions announced by the GST Council across sectors as buying was seen in the auto, IT and PSU bank shares in the early trade.

At around 9.38 am, Sensex was trading 140.72 points or 0.17 per cent up at 80,858.73 while the Nifty added 52 point or 0.21 per cent at 24,786.30.

Nifty Bank was up 4.05 points or 0.01 per cent at 54,079.50 The Nifty Midcap 100 index was trading at 57,291.20 after adding 332.05 points or 0.58 per cent. Nifty Smallcap 100 index was at 17,704.70 after gaining 82.75 points or 0.47 per cent.

According to analysts, Nifty indicated an optimistic positive move, with anticipation of positive cues from the GST rate outcome, which would decide the further course of the market in the coming days.

“The index would need a decisive move past the important 50EMA level at the 24,800 zone, which can trigger a fresh further upward move along with the broader markets beginning to participate to support the benchmark indices,” said Vaishali Parekh, Vice President (Technical Research), PL Capital.

The 24,500 zone shall continue to remain as the important support zone for the index, she added.

Overall, the market is showing resilience within a consolidation range. With improving technical momentum and steady domestic inflows, the near-term bias remains positive, said experts.

“Traders should adopt a buy-on-dips strategy and focus on stock-specific opportunities in leadership sectors like banking, IT, and auto,” said Mandar Bhojane from Choice Broking.

Meanwhile, in the Sensex pack, M&M, Trent, Tata Motors, Asian Paints, Power Grid and Maruti Suzuki were the top gainers. Whereas, ITC, Hindustan Unilever Limited, Sun Pharma and HDFC Bank were the top losers.

In the Asian markets, Bangkok, Japan, Seoul, Hong Kong and China were trading in green.

In the last trading session, Dow Jones in the US closed at 45,621.29, up 350.06 points, or 0.77 per cent. The S&P 500 ended with a gain of 53.82 points, or 0.83 per cent, at 6,502.08 and the Nasdaq closed at 21,707.69, up 209.97 points, or 0.98 per cent.

On the institutional front, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers as they sold equities worth Rs 106.34 crore on September 4, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) purchased equities worth Rs 2,233.09 crore.

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