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Unheard of Rs 3.3 lakh Cr bank deposit bulge in Diwali week slumped in a fortnight

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Indian-Rupee

State Bank of India’s Economic Research Department has highlighted the curious case of Rs 3.3 lakh crore deposit bulge and the Rs 2.7 lakh crore deposit slump in alternate fortnights.

As per the provisional data released by RBI for the fortnight ended November 19, ASCB’s aggregate deposits have slumped by Rs 2.7 lakh crore during the fortnight. The slump in deposits follows an abrupt increase by Rs 3.3 lakh crore during the previous fortnight ended November 5. Interestingly, such growth in deposits was around 36 per cent of the incremental deposit growth at that point of time. This increase in deposits and subsequent slump is quite a contrarian trend, says Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, State Bank of India.

While it may be exactly difficult to decipher the increase and subsequent decline, it does pose questions on liquidity management/financial stability or a shift in behavioural trend in customer payment habits through digitisation and hence lower currency leakage and concomitant deposit bulge or both.

First, the fortnightly increase of Rs 3.3 lakh crore. This has never happened during a Diwali week as there is always a currency leakage and concomitant deposit decline. This is also the fifth largest increase in any fortnight in the last 24 years. Such huge incremental addition has happened only a few times, with higher deposits accretion (than the current year’s fortnight) occurring during the fortnight ended November 25, 2016 (Rs 4.16 lakh crore), September 30, 2016 (Rs 3.55 lakh crore), March 29, 2019 (Rs 3.46 lakh crore) and April 1, 2016 (Rs 3.41 lakh crore). However, the increase in November 2016 was because of demonetisation and the March and April fortnightly increases could be attributed to seasonal year-end bulge. In this respect, the current deposit bulge requires a detailed explanation, the report said.

Next, the fortnightly deposit slump in the subsequent fortnight. ‘We believe that it is possible that there was a large influx of deposits into the banking system for the fortnight ended November 5, 2021 in anticipation of a build up in rally in stock markets post primary issuances of new age companies and others. However, when such a rally did not materialise, the bulge in banking deposits slumped and almost 80 per cent of deposit bulge was withdrawn, the report said.

Interestingly, the amount of money parked in fixed reverse repo window jumped from Rs 0.45 lakh crore on October 19 to Rs 2.4 lakh crore on November 17, 2021 and has remained at such level till December 1. However, it must be noted that the significant jump in digital transactions has also resulted in lower usage of cash in the current fiscal and ideally could also have resulted in a surge in deposits for the Diwali week.

Meanwhile, if we look at the quarterly ASCB data, though the deposits growth remains same in Q2 (2.6 per cent) as compared to Q1 (2.5 per cent), sequentially at all-India level, apart from Metro regions, the deposits growth has decelerated in Q2 as compared to Q1, particularly in rural areas indicating that the current economic recovery is mostly urban led and rural economy is still recouping. Meanwhile, ASCB’s credit has increased by Rs 1.18 lakh crore (7.1 per cent YoY) during the fortnight ended November 5, which may be due to festive demands.

Business

No toll proposed for 2-wheelers, says Nitin Gadkari amid viral reports

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New Delhi, June 26: Union Minister for Road Transport and Highways, Nitin Gadkari, on Thursday dismissed media reports suggesting that two-wheelers will be required to pay tolls on National Highways from July 15.

He called the reports misleading and clarified that no such proposal is under consideration.

Taking to social media platform X, the Union Minister said: “Some media houses are spreading misleading news about toll tax being levied on two-wheelers. No such decision has been proposed.”

“Two-wheelers will continue to be exempt from tolls. Spreading such baseless news without verifying the facts is not responsible journalism. I strongly condemn it,” the Union Minister stated.

The clarification comes after a report claimed that toll payment would soon be made mandatory for two-wheelers at all national highway toll plazas, and that riders would need to equip their vehicles with FASTag.

The report also claimed that violators could face penalties of up to Rs 2,000. This comes just days after Gadkari announced a new annual FASTag pass worth Rs 3,000 for private four-wheelers, aimed at simplifying toll payments and reducing congestion.

Set to launch on August 15, the pass will be valid for one year or 200 trips — whichever comes first — and can be activated via the Rajmarg Yatra app or official websites of the NHAI and the MoRTH.

The government has significantly expanded its highway infrastructure in the last decade, with the total length of national highways increasing from 91,287 km in 2014 to 1,46,204 km in 2024 — a rise of over 60 per cent.

The pace of highway construction has also tripled from 11.6 km/day in 2014 to 34 km/day in 2024.

As of now, 1,366 highway projects covering 32,366 km are under construction across the country, many of which are expected to be completed in phases by FY 2028.

With a 570 per cent increase in the road transport and highways budget over the last decade, the Centre continues to prioritise infrastructure development — but for now, two-wheeler riders can rest assured that tolls are not on the horizon.

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National

SC agrees to hear plea against Maratha quota law in July

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New Delhi, June 26: The Supreme Court on Thursday agreed to hear, in July, a plea challenging the decision of the Bombay High Court, which had directed that the interim order passed last year, allowing the Maratha community to avail 10 per cent reservation in educational institutions and public employment, will continue to remain in force.

After a lawyer mentioned the matter for urgent listing, a Bench of Justices K.V. Viswanathan and N.K. Singh assured of listing the plea on the re-opening of the top court (i.e. after July 14).

In an order passed on June 11 this year, the Bombay High Court allowed the Maratha community to provisionally avail the benefit of 10 per cent reservation, subject to the final outcome of the petitions challenging the validity of the contentious Maharashtra State Reservation for Socially and Educationally Backwards Classes (SEBC) Act, 2024.

The SEBC Act, allowing 10 per cent quota for the Maratha community, was passed by the previous Eknath Shinde-led government in February last year after the Justice (retd) Sunil Shukre-led Maharashtra State Backward Class Commission (MSBCC) opined that “exceptional circumstances and extraordinary situations exist” to grant benefit of quota to Maratha community beyond the 50 per cent threshold.

Notably, the Supreme Court had struck down a similar quota law enacted by the Maharashtra legislature in 2018 for having breached the 50 per cent cap fixed in the 1992 landmark Indra Sawhney case (Mandal Commission case).

A five-judge Constitution Bench, in its judgment passed in May 2021, had opined that it could not find any exceptional circumstances or extraordinary situation for allowing a 12-13 per cent quota for the Maratha community and struck down the Maharashtra Socially and Educationally Backward Classes (SEBC) Act, 2018.

Further, the Supreme Court had declared that states do not have the power to prepare lists for socially and educationally backward classes and ruled that the President had the sole power to identify a community as backward.

It had also declined to entertain the review plea moved by the Maharashtra government seeking a relook at the judgment. Before this, the apex court had dismissed a plea by the Union government seeking reconsideration of the May 5, 2021, judgment.

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Crime

Bengal BJP worker’s murder: Absconding man arrested by CBI after 4 years

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Kolkata, June 26: After four years, a prime absconding accused in the killing of a BJP worker, Abhijit Sarkar, in the 2021 post-poll violence was arrested by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) on Thursday.

The arrested person was identified as Arun Dey, for whom the CBI had earlier announced a reward of Rs 50,000. He was one of the five main accused persons in the murder of Sarkar, a resident of the Kankurgachi area in North Kolkata, during the violence that broke out after the 2021 West Bengal Assembly election.

Sources said Dey was finally arrested on Thursday from a secret hideout in the North 24 Parganas district of West Bengal. However, further details on the matter are still awaited.

Four other prime accused persons in the case, namely Sukhdeo Podder a.k.a. Sukha, Gopal Das a.k.a. Vishal, Amit and Biswajit Das a.k.a. Bomba, are still absconding.

All five of them were identified as Trinamool Congress strongmen in the area and were also known as close confidants of the ruling party legislator from Belegahta Assembly constituency in North Kolkata, Paresh Paul and Trinamool Congress councillor in Kolkata Municipal Corporation (KMC), Swapan Samaddar.

Paul has already been questioned by the CBI sleuths in this connection. However, his name was not in the charge sheet filed by the CBI in the matter, which angered the family members of the slain BJP worker.

To recall, Abhijit Sarkar was killed on May 2, 2021, soon after the results of the 2021 Assembly elections were declared, where Trinamool Congress bagged a landslide victory.

The CBI took over the investigation from the Kolkata Police following an order of the Calcutta High Court. In September 2021, a trial court in Kolkata declared the five accused absconders.

Thereafter, CBI declared a reward of Rs 50,000 on each of them. Finally, after over four years, one of the five accused and absconding persons has been arrested by the CBI sleuths. He might be presented at a special court in Kolkata later in the day, and the CBI counsel is expected to seek his custody for further interrogation, sources said.

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