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Unheard of Rs 3.3 lakh Cr bank deposit bulge in Diwali week slumped in a fortnight

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Indian-Rupee

State Bank of India’s Economic Research Department has highlighted the curious case of Rs 3.3 lakh crore deposit bulge and the Rs 2.7 lakh crore deposit slump in alternate fortnights.

As per the provisional data released by RBI for the fortnight ended November 19, ASCB’s aggregate deposits have slumped by Rs 2.7 lakh crore during the fortnight. The slump in deposits follows an abrupt increase by Rs 3.3 lakh crore during the previous fortnight ended November 5. Interestingly, such growth in deposits was around 36 per cent of the incremental deposit growth at that point of time. This increase in deposits and subsequent slump is quite a contrarian trend, says Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser, State Bank of India.

While it may be exactly difficult to decipher the increase and subsequent decline, it does pose questions on liquidity management/financial stability or a shift in behavioural trend in customer payment habits through digitisation and hence lower currency leakage and concomitant deposit bulge or both.

First, the fortnightly increase of Rs 3.3 lakh crore. This has never happened during a Diwali week as there is always a currency leakage and concomitant deposit decline. This is also the fifth largest increase in any fortnight in the last 24 years. Such huge incremental addition has happened only a few times, with higher deposits accretion (than the current year’s fortnight) occurring during the fortnight ended November 25, 2016 (Rs 4.16 lakh crore), September 30, 2016 (Rs 3.55 lakh crore), March 29, 2019 (Rs 3.46 lakh crore) and April 1, 2016 (Rs 3.41 lakh crore). However, the increase in November 2016 was because of demonetisation and the March and April fortnightly increases could be attributed to seasonal year-end bulge. In this respect, the current deposit bulge requires a detailed explanation, the report said.

Next, the fortnightly deposit slump in the subsequent fortnight. ‘We believe that it is possible that there was a large influx of deposits into the banking system for the fortnight ended November 5, 2021 in anticipation of a build up in rally in stock markets post primary issuances of new age companies and others. However, when such a rally did not materialise, the bulge in banking deposits slumped and almost 80 per cent of deposit bulge was withdrawn, the report said.

Interestingly, the amount of money parked in fixed reverse repo window jumped from Rs 0.45 lakh crore on October 19 to Rs 2.4 lakh crore on November 17, 2021 and has remained at such level till December 1. However, it must be noted that the significant jump in digital transactions has also resulted in lower usage of cash in the current fiscal and ideally could also have resulted in a surge in deposits for the Diwali week.

Meanwhile, if we look at the quarterly ASCB data, though the deposits growth remains same in Q2 (2.6 per cent) as compared to Q1 (2.5 per cent), sequentially at all-India level, apart from Metro regions, the deposits growth has decelerated in Q2 as compared to Q1, particularly in rural areas indicating that the current economic recovery is mostly urban led and rural economy is still recouping. Meanwhile, ASCB’s credit has increased by Rs 1.18 lakh crore (7.1 per cent YoY) during the fortnight ended November 5, which may be due to festive demands.

Business

Indian stock market ends in bullish tone over hopes of renewed FII inflows

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Mumbai, Dec 13: Indian equity benchmarks made marginal losses during the week amid sustained FII outflows and uncertainty surrounding the US-India trade negotiations.

However, the market ended the week in a bullish tone with Nifty surging 0.57 per cent on the last trading day after the US Federal Reserve announced a 25-bps rate cut.

Benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex dipped 0.36 and 0.17 per cent during the week to close at 26,046 and 85,267, respectively.

Indian equities opened the week on a subdued note, amid continued rupee depreciation and negative global cues due to rising Japanese bond yields.

The US Fed rate cut later in the week eased liquidity concerns and fuelled hopes of renewed FII inflows. With supportive central bank policies, steady domestic investments, and optimism over trade progress despite unclear timelines, benchmarks closed the week on a strong note.

India’s year-on-year inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was estimated at 0.71 per cent for November this year which was marginally higher than the 0.25 per cent in October, according to figures released by the Ministry of Statistics.

Broader indices underperformed, with the Nifty Midcap100 and Smallcap100 down 0.51 per cent and 0.67 per cent, respectively, in a week.

Sectoral performance was mixed, with IT under pressure while PSU banks, real estate and consumer durables witnessed selective buying.

Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research, Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates, said that Nifty’s weekly chart shows buying interest at lower levels.

Nifty has 26,200 and 26,325 as stiff resistance levels while 25,700 will act as support zone, he added.

Analysts said that markets will likely remain positive in near future but sensitive to rupee stability, FII flow trends, trade agreement clarity, and cues from major central banks abroad.

Amidst risks from currency fluctuations and global trade uncertainties, improving earnings visibility and liquidity support provide a constructive backdrop and downside protection, they added.

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Business

Maharashtra on path to becoming GCC hub: CM Fadnavis

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Nagpur, Dec 12: Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis on Friday announced that a crucial milestone has been achieved in the journey to establish Maharashtra as a GCC (Global Capability Centre) Hub.

He said that the Brookfield company is set to build Asia’s largest Global Capability Centre (GCC) in Mumbai, spanning approximately 2 million square feet.

The Chief Minister said that this project is expected to generate a total of 45,000 jobs, including 15,000 direct and 30,000 indirect jobs.

He stated that due to the state’s talent pool, infrastructure, and industry-friendly environment, Maharashtra is becoming a preferred destination for Global Capability Centres.

“The new GCC policy will lead to large-scale skill-based job creation and economic growth,” he added.

He also mentioned that FedEx, a global leader in the logistics sector, is keen to invest in its GCC and other operations near the Mumbai-Navi Mumbai airport area, said the government release.

The Chief Minister informed that he requested Microsoft to consider Maharashtra for their investments, noting that their largest existing investment is already in the state.

He expressed confidence that Microsoft will make a major investment in the future and take the lead in making Maharashtra an Artificial Intelligence (AI) centre.

The Chief Minister said that Maharashtra’s model for crime control with the help of Artificial Intelligence is a guiding light for the entire country.

Chief Minister Fadnavis confirmed that Microsoft has assured priority to Maharashtra in their largest ever investment in India, amounting to $17 billion.

He further highlighted the ‘Marble’ platform developed by Maharashtra, which helps detect cyber and financial crimes in just 24 hours instead of 3-4 months.

He said that this has resulted in saving people’s money and has expedited the process of tracking criminals.

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Business

India’s CPI inflation estimated at 0.71 pc for Nov, food inflation stays in negative zone

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New Delhi, Dec 12: India’s year-on-year inflation rate, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), was estimated at 0.71 per cent for November this year which was marginally higher than the 0.25 per cent in October, according to figures released by the Ministry of Statistics on Friday.

Food inflation stayed in the negative zone during November at (-) 3.91 per cent as prices of food goods fell compared to the same month of the previous year. Food inflation has now stayed negative for the sixth month in a row, easing the burden on household budgets.

However, the increase in headline inflation during November 2025 is mainly attributed to an increase in the inflation of vegetables, eggs, meat and fish, spices, and fuels compared to October, according to an official statement.

The retail inflation had eased further in October, after having plummeted to an over 8-year low of 1.54 per cent in September, as prices of food items and goods across sectors fell during the month.

The declining trend in food prices continued in October as food inflation fell deeper in the negative zone at (-) 5.02 per cent from (-) 2.28 per cent in September.

However, the overall outlook for inflation remains benign.

The RBI’s monetary policy committee (MPC) last week slashed its forecast for India’s inflation rate for the financial year 2025-26 to 2 per cent from 2.6 per cent predicted in October due to the sharp decline in food prices and the GST rate cuts playing out.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra announced a reduction in the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25 per cent from 5.5 per cent earlier, as inflation had come down and the monetary policy could focus on boosting growth.

Malhotra said that the surge in economic growth to 8.2 per cent in the second quarter of the current financial year and the sharp decline in inflation to 1.7 per cent had provided a rare “Goldilocks period” for the Indian economy.

“The MPC noted that headline inflation has eased significantly and is likely to be softer than the earlier projections, primarily on account of the exceptionally benign food prices. Reflecting these favourable conditions, the projections for average headline inflation in 2025-26 and Q1:2026-27 have been further revised downwards.”

Malhotra also pointed out that core inflation (which excludes food and fuel) remained largely contained in September-October, despite continued price pressures exerted by precious metals. Excluding gold, core inflation moderated to 2.6 per cent in October. Overall, the decline in inflation has become more generalised, he added.

The RBI Governor observed that food supply prospects have improved on the back of higher kharif production, healthy rabi sowing, adequate reservoir levels and conducive soil moisture. Barring some metals, international commodity prices are likely to moderate going forward.

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