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Trade imbalance to widen FY22 Current Account deficit to 1.5% of GDP

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Greater trade deficit is expected to widen India’s current account deficit to 1.5 per cent of the GDP in FY22.

Notably, India’s current account was in a surplus of 0.9 per cent in FY21.

The recent data showed that a wider trade deficit on the back of expensive commodities negatively impacted the current account.

Resultantly, India’s Q3FY22 current account widened to $23 billion.

“Wider CAD in 3QFY22 was on account of a larger merchandise trade deficit, which stood at 7.2 per cent of GDP, following a deficit of 5.9 per cent of GDP (or USD44.5b) in 2QFY22,” said Motilal Oswal Financial Services in a report.

“A spurt in imports vis-a-vis exports led to a wider merchandise trade deficit. Excluding petroleum products, India had a current account surplus of 0.8 per cent of GDP, lower than 2.2 per cent of GDP in 2QFY22 and 1.9 per cent of GDP in 3QFY21.”

Besides, the report pointed out that excluding gold, India had a current account deficit of 1.1 per cent of GDP in 3QFY22.

Furthermore, the report said that net foreign capital inflows into India amounted to $23.2 billion supported by other investments such as higher trade credit, advances, and receivables.

“While FDI investments halved to $5.1 billion in 3QFY22 from $10 billion in 2QFY22, there was a net outflow of $4.7 billion in FPI investments in 3QFY22 from an inflow of a similar quantity in 2QFY22.”

“Accordingly, there were barely any FXR accretions in 3QFY22.”

In addition, the report said that GDS (gross domestic savings) was at a six-quarter low in 3QFY22.

“With total investments decelerating to 28.6 per cent of GDP in 3QFY22 and CAD at 2.7 per cent of GDP, implied savings too moderated to only 25.9 per cent of GDP in 3QFY22 from 32.3 per cent of GDP in 2QFY22.”

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Chinese missile maker’s stock tanks over 6 pc after India destroys its air weapon

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New Delhi, May 13: The shares of Zhuzhou Hongda Electronics Corp Ltd, the Chinese defence company that manufactures the PL-15 missile, dropped sharply by 6.42 per cent or 2.56 Yuan to 37.33 Yuan on Tuesday, after India’s air defence system successfully intercepted and destroyed the missile during the conflict with Pakistan.

Over the past month, the company’s shares have declined by 7.37 per cent, or 2.97 Yuan. However, the stock showed a brief 5-day recovery of 7.58 per cent.

The stock plunge came after Indian defence forces confirmed that the PL-15 missile, supplied to Pakistan by China, failed to penetrate the country’s multi-layered air defence system.

On the night of May 9 and 10, Pakistan launched a series of air attacks targeting Indian Air Force bases and military facilities using advanced weaponry, including the Chinese PL-15 missile and Turkish-made Byker YIHA III kamikaze drones.

However, India’s air defence successfully intercepted all threats.

The PL-15, a beyond-visual-range (BVR) air-to-air missile used by Pakistan’s JF-17 and J-10 fighter jets, was neutralised by indigenous defence systems.

This interception has raised questions about the real-world effectiveness of China’s missile technology, possibly triggering the decline in investor confidence in Zhuzhou Hongda.

India’s Director General of Air Operations, Air Marshal A.K. Bharti, displayed images of the intercepted weapons, showcasing how the Indian defence network had destroyed high-tech missiles and drones.

He credited India’s self-reliant defence capabilities, particularly the indigenous ‘Akash’ air defense system, as a crucial factor in neutralising the threat.

The Akash system, alongside vintage systems like Pichora and advanced platforms including MANPADS, short-range missiles, and fighter aircraft, formed a coordinated defense shield under the Integrated Air Command and Control System.

The Turkish Byker YIHA III drone, capable of carrying high-explosive payloads and designed for low-altitude, high-speed attacks, was also intercepted near Amritsar.

This drone was intended to cause significant damage to military or civilian targets, but failed to breach India’s defenses.

Lieutenant General Rajiv Ghai, Director General of Military Operations (DGMO), explained the multi-layered coordination among the Indian Army, Air Force, and Navy, describing a defence posture that was both measured and impenetrable.

Between May 9 and 10, India’s multi-layered air defence grid was put to the test as waves of drones, launched by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), attempted to penetrate Indian airspace. “Not a single PAF drone could breach the defence shield,” Lt Gen Ghai stated.

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Indian rupee opens stronger against US dollar

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Mumbai, May 13: The Indian rupee opened 75 paise stronger at 84.65 against the US dollar on Tuesday, following its previous close at 85.38 a dollar.

The trading range for the day was expected to be between 84.50 and 85.25, according to analysts. The dollar maintained its gains following a significant trade pact between the US and China.

The US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145 per cent to 30 per cent for 90 days, while China said it will cut tariffs on US goods from 125 per cent to 10 per cent for 90 days. The two countries will establish a mechanism to continue discussions about economic and trade relations.

According to analysts, any fresh developments on the geopolitical front are likely to have a significant impact on the rupee’s direction.

In FY25, rupee traded in the range of 83.10 and 87.6 against the greenback, initially weakening after the US election results and depreciating by 2.4 per cent over the year due to persistent FPI outflows and a strong US dollar.

Despite these challenges, the rupee remained relatively stable compared to other global currencies, supported by healthy government finances, a declining current account deficit, improved liquidity, and moderating oil prices, among others, according to the NSE’s ‘Market Pulse Report’ for April.

Towards the end of the year, a reversal in dollar strength and renewed FPI inflows into debt helped the rupee recover, appreciating by 2.4 per cent in March 2025.

The rupee’s average annualised volatility declined to 2.7 per cent in FY25, positioning it among the least volatile major emerging market currencies, highlighting India’s strong external buffers and proactive forex management.

“However, the rupee remained overvalued, with the 40-currency trade weighted REER rising to 105.3, although both REER and NEER moderated gradually from H1FY25, indicating an easing of overvaluation. The one-year forward premium for the rupee continued to moderate, reflecting changing premium dynamics and India’s macroeconomic resilience,” the report mentioned.

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FIIs to resume equity purchases in India as bulls roar: Analysts

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Mumbai, May 12: The ceasefire between India and Pakistan has paved the way for a sharp rally in the market and with this, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are likely to resume their equity purchases in India, analysts said on Monday.

Sensex and Nifty surged more than 2.7 per cent in the morning trade.

According to market watchers, the prime mover of the rally will now be the FII buying, which has been sustained for 16 continuous days except last Friday when the conflict escalated.

“Domestic macros like expectations of high GDP growth and revival of earnings growth in FY26 and declining inflation and interest rates augur well for the resumption of a rally in the market,” said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.

FIIs favour large caps like ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance, L&T, Bharti, Ultratech, M&M and Eicher. Midcap IT and digital stocks are other segments to watch.

Pharma stocks may come under near-term pressure from US President Donald Trump’s latest announcement regarding reducing prices of drugs in the US.

“There are rumours of impending US deal with China on trade but details are yet to come. If a deal materialises that would be good for the global economy,” said Vijayakumar.

The hallmark of FPI investment in recent days has been the sustained buying by FIIs. FIIs bought equity through the exchanges consecutively for 16 trading days ending 8th May for a cumulative amount of Rs 48,533 crore.

“They sold for Rs 3,798 crore on 9th May when the India-Pak conflict got escalated. Now that ceasefire has been declared, FIIs are likely to resume their equity purchases in India,” said analysts.

It is important to understand that FIIs were continuous sellers in India in the first three months of this year. The big selling began in January (Rs 78,027 crore) when the dollar index peaked at 111 in mid-January.

Thereafter, the intensity of selling declined. FIIs turned buyers in April with a buy figure of Rs 4,243 crore.

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