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The Afghan conundrum

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After a relatively silent phase on Afghan situation, which was overtaken by the global geo-political concerns after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, it was once again on top of the agenda of regional and global powers in Moscow, last week.

At the Moscow Conference on Afghanistan, representatives and officials from more than 14 countries exchanged views on the current situation in Afghanistan. The meeting was hosted by Russia and participants discussed the political, economic and humanitarian situation in Afghanistan.

The 10 countries, none of which was involved in military occupation of Afghanistan, were meeting after over a year in Moscow. The participants included representatives from India, Pakistan, Russia, China, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Representatives of Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Turkey were also present.

At the start of the conference special Russian envoy Zamir Kabulov stated that we have to provide a comprehensive solution to the Afghan economic issue. To achieve this, the main responsibility lies with the collective West. Those who drove the country for 20 years to the current deplorable state, as well as shamelessly continued economically suffocating the country by holding the frozen national assets of Afghanistan, are not ready to step in, an obvious reference to the US, which was not present at the conference.

Regional views
At the conference, the MEA’s Joint Secretary J.P. Singh, who called for joint work to ensure that the “voice” of the Afghans is not lost, represented India. We all need to work together to ensure that the voice and aspiration of Afghans is not lost and reassure them that we are standing with them at this difficult time, he said.

The Chinese special envoy on Afghan affairs, Yue Xiaoyong said that the US has shamelessly seized the $7 billion assets of Afghan Central Bank and suspended all development aid, unilaterally.

The Iran special envoy for Afghanistan, Hassan Kazimi Qomi, said that there will be a meeting of the regional foreign ministers in Tehran very soon to discuss Afghanistan’s economic woes.

Right from the beginning India’s view has been that of engaging with the Taliban. Though after making an initial foray by engaging in dialogue with the leadership in Doha, before the formation of the Islamic Emirate, it acted rather slowly afterwards. Yet, it remains firm that development and reconstruction of Afghanistan should be dealt with its regional neighbours and those countries, which in the past have played a factitious role in Afghanistan politics, should be kept away from it.

Meanwhile, the Islamic Emirate has made clear that meetings in which there is no representative from Kabul are not effective. The Afghan Foreign Ministry in a statement said that, “We want to underscore that Islamic Emirate, just as it fought against the 20-year occupation posing a direct threat to the security and stability of Afghanistan and the region, as an independent government will not allow any third country to place military facilities in Afghanistan. Similarly, we strongly urge other countries to not put their land and airspace at the disposal of other countries against Afghanistan,”

It also said that the interim Taliban regime is an “accountable government” and has taken “serious steps against antagonistic groups”.

Pakistan’s criticism
However, in an unusual move, Pakistan gave a damning assessment of the Afghan Taliban regime’s 16 months in power, saying the interim government has done little to form inclusive government, protect the rights of women and eradicate terrorist groups.

Pakistan’s special envoy for Afghanistan, Sadiq Khan, called for support for Afghans. The lack of progress, he noted, means that the critical support needed by Afghanistan to deal with the humanitarian and economic crises and other challenges has faltered.

Sadiq said the progress report of the last 16 months was mixed, while some of the worst fears, including a rapidly deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan, mass exodus of refugees and a prolonged period of instability and violence did not materialise, the interim Afghan government had also not made the kind of progress that the international community would ideally expected.

Despite assurances by the interim Afghan government, the rights of women and girls also appeared to have regressed, not progressed, according to the Pakistani envoy. He added that the footprint of terrorist organisations in Afghanistan, had yet to be fully eradicated.

He said that Pakistan has been the advocate of engaging with the Afghan Taliban government after the withdrawal of foreign forces. But the latest assessment suggests Islamabad is not happy with the interim government. Pakistan is increasingly frustrated over the Taliban’s lack of intent to eradicate threat posed by certain terror outfits to Pakistan.

But despite expressing strong reservations, Ambassador Sadiq made a passionate appeal for help to millions of Afghans, who he said, were in desperate need of urgent humanitarian support, including food, medicine and essential life supplies, before the advent of winter.

On top, he said, Afghanistan remained cut off from the international banking system and faces serious liquidity challenges. Billions of Afghan assets are frozen, thus deprived of being gainfully used for the benefit of the people of Afghanistan.

Though Pakistan wants to be a seen as an important and sincere player for the reconstruction of Afghanistan, yet there is a lot of bad blood between Pakistan and IEA. During the last 16 months, their forces have acted against each other on the border issue several times. Moreover, even the international comity does not seem ready to entrust Pakistan with any meaningful role in Afghanistan, which might be a replay of its earlier roles during the Soviet and American interference in the country.

In the given scenario, the Indian government should step up its diplomatic and outreach activities with the IEA and international players. India’s past role in Afghan affairs can’t be erased easily and now as the G20’s chair, India can definitely move forward in a resolute manner to start a meaningful and result-oriented outreach for Afghanistan.

Further IEA should be made a part of the consultative process of any future action on Afghanistan, as without their presence no one can guarantee the actions and provide legitimacy to any sincere intervention.

International News

Pakistan fears losing more than diplomatic ground with Kabul turning to India

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New Delhi, Oct 10: Pakistan could never imagine that a group it once raised and used to spread terror in neighbouring countries would one day run a government and realise that diplomacy does not flow out of the barrel of a gun.

When on the receiving end, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif stated that Islamabad has “run out” of patience over the use of Afghan soil by “terrorists targeting Pakistan”.

He has also made a bizarre statement, claiming that Afghans have always stood beside India “yesterday, today, and tomorrow”.

If indeed his country had offered support to Afghan refugees, it was to raise a militia, not out of compassion. And all these rhetorics come when Afghanistan’s Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi is visiting India.

Pakistan has itself soured its relationship with the Taliban, attacking Afghanistan’s border areas, even resorting to aerial bombing, and driving back thousands of refugees from its land to an uncertain future.

Kabul has always refused to recognise the Durand Line – then hurriedly drawn by British occupiers – as a legitimate border.

The porous areas have witnessed intermittent skirmishes, affecting trade and transit. After the withdrawal of US-led troops, Islamabad expected the Taliban to remain eternally grateful and jump to its bidding, but the regime’s assertiveness has disrupted that. Kabul’s diplomatic overtures towards New Delhi have unsettled Pakistan.

While India does not officially recognise the Taliban regime, its pragmatic engagement signals a shift in Kabul’s foreign policy orientation. For Pakistan, this represents a strategic loss and a potential threat.

India’s growing ties with Kabul, combined with its strategic partnership with Iran, amplify these fears.

Possible increase in India’s diplomatic and trade relation with nations in Pakistan’s immediate neighbourhood blow winds of caution for Islamabad.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s economic ties with Afghanistan have also suffered, with border closures, refugee deportations, and diplomatic tensions having disrupted transit routes.

India’s investment in alternative corridors like the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and Chabahar bypasses Pakistan entirely.

But following the re-imposition of sanctions against Iran and the Chabahar Port in particular, foreign companies became reluctant to participate in the port’s expansion.

India took over operations in 2018, and used it for trade with Iran and other countries, and also send relief materials to Kabul. Islamabad is eyeing Muttaqi’s India visit warily, fearing diplomatic isolation, where, with India engaging Afghanistan, Iran, and other Central Asian nations, Pakistan risks being left out of regional dialogues.

Increased Indian presence could lead to constricting its operations in intelligence gathering, surveillance, and influence over the region. Thus, Afghanistan’s tilt towards India adds pressure on Pakistan’s western flank.

The Taliban’s refusal to act as Islamabad’s proxy and India’s growing goodwill among Afghans have reshaped the strategic landscape. Pakistan’s view of India’s advantage in Afghanistan is shaped by a sense of strategic reversal.

What was once a zone of influence has become a source of insecurity.

India’s soft-power diplomacy, infrastructure investments, and pragmatic engagement with the Taliban have allowed it to gain ground practically without boots on the ground.

Islamabad now faces two main challenges – managing deteriorating ties with the Taliban and countering India’s expanding influence. But given utterances like those by Khawaja Asif, both seem distant for Pakistan.

As regional dynamics evolve, Afghanistan will remain a critical point in South Asia’s geopolitical chessboard – one where Pakistan’s traditional playbook may no longer suffice.

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International News

Pakistan’s blitzkrieg of airstrikes on Kabul escalates tensions with Afghanistan

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Kabul, Oct 10: Tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan surged dramatically following multiple explosions in Kabul that residents and observers fear were the result of unprovoked cross-border airstrikes.

The Afghan capital was shaken as powerful blasts echoed through several neighbourhoods, with witnesses reporting the distinct sounds of aircraft overhead.

The explosions, reportedly originating from District 8 in eastern Kabul, a zone home to key government facilities and residential areas, triggered widespread panic. While the exact source and intent behind the blasts are still unconfirmed, early reports point to the possibility of airstrikes, raising concerns over the escalation of regional conflict.

The incident occurred just hours after Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif delivered a fiery statement in the National Assembly, suggesting a breakdown in diplomatic restraint.

“Enough is enough, our patience has run out. Terrorism from Afghan soil is intolerable,” Asif said, recalling a past visit to Kabul by Pakistani officials, during which Afghan authorities allegedly refused to offer assurances against militant activity targeting Pakistan.

Although Pakistan has not officially confirmed launching any strikes, the timing of Asif’s comments and the subsequent explosions in Kabul have led to heightened suspicions of deliberate military action.

In the wake of rising tensions, mobile internet services were abruptly suspended in the Pakistani cities of Islamabad and Rawalpindi, though authorities have not offered an explanation for the disruption.

The alleged strikes were swiftly condemned by Baloch representative Mir Yar Baloch, who took to X, issuing a strong rebuke of Pakistan’s actions.

“We strongly condemn the terror attack on Kabul today by the rogue state of Pakistan. The terrorism carried out by the rogue state of Pakistan and its diseased/rogue military, which is involved in the attack on Kabul, could be ended within weeks if Afghanistan recognises Balochistan as a free (independent) state.”

He went further to argue that Pakistan’s military garrisons and airbases, which are located in Balochistan and occupied Pashtunistan, do not represent the nation as a whole but rather function as instruments of coercion against neighbouring regions.

“Pakistan has no direct border with Afghanistan; the military garrisons and airbases of what is, in effect, Punjab-based Pakistan are located in Balochistan and occupied Pashtunistan, and they are a symbol of terrorism for Balochistan and Pashtunistan as well as a threat to Afghanistan’s security,” he added.

Mir Yar Baloch proposed a bold geopolitical shift as a solution: “If today Kabul recognises Balochistan as an independent state and incorporates Pashtunistan into Afghanistan, accepting it as part of its territory, then the Baloch and Afghan peoples together could secure their border and airspace and would not allow Pakistan’s military aircraft and drone strikes to enter their air space and target innocent civilians, and Pakistan would not be able to challenge our national security.”

As tensions simmer, fears are growing over the possibility of further military escalation.

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Business

PM Modi meets Keir Starmer in Mumbai for strengthening India-UK ties

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Mumbai, Oct 9: Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomed UK Prime Minister Keri Starmer at Raj Bhavan and held a meeting as part of the process to strengthen the strategic partnership between the two countries.

The Ministry of External Affairs shared photos of Prime Minister Narendra Modi meeting UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

“Together for stronger India-UK ties…,” posted Randhir Jaiswal, the MEA spokesperson, on X.

Earlier, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said his meeting with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer here further deepened trade and economic partnership for mutual prosperity between the two nations.

Starmer arrived in India for a two-day visit on Wednesday, accompanied by the biggest-ever trade delegation from the country to India.

“Delighted to call on UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Discussed avenues to further deepen India-UK trade and economic partnership for mutual prosperity,” Goyal posted on X social media platform.

Goyal earlier met Peter Kyle, the UK’s Secretary of State for Business and Trade, with a view to moving forward with the operationalisation of the India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) and doubling the bilateral trade by 2030.

“The meeting marked a significant step towards operationalising the India-UK CETA, with both Ministers agreeing to reposition the Joint Economic and Trade Committee (JETCO) to oversee its implementation and delivery,” according to the Commerce Ministry statement.

Both sides underlined their commitment to ensuring swift, coordinated, and results-oriented implementation of the Agreement, aimed at realising its full potential for businesses and consumers in both countries. The ministers reaffirmed their shared ambition to double bilateral trade by 2030, leveraging the complementarities between the two economies in areas such as advanced manufacturing, digital trade, clean energy, and services.

Emphasising the transformative scope of CETA, they discussed ways to maximise its benefits through regulatory cooperation, addressing non-tariff barriers, and promoting supply chain integration. The highly productive Commerce Secretary and Director General-level meeting set the tone for the Ministerial meeting, which laid a strong foundation for a full day of engaging and forward-looking discussions.

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