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Supply disruptions of sunflower oil lift crude palm oil prices to all-time high

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Possible short supply of sunflower oil amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine has led the crude palm oil prices going through the roof.

Escalated geo-political worries in the Black Sea region may have significant bearing on sunflower seed and the oil supply from the region.

India is the major importer of crude palm oil and the country meets more than two-thirds of its edible oil needs through imports, of which palm oil accounts for more than 60 per cent.

All edible oils track each other’s prices as they compete in the market, and any potential supply disruptions for one buoys the prices of the other counters.

Since the past one-month Malaysian crude palm oil, the benchmark, has risen about 25 per cent. On Wednesday, it hit an all-time high of 7,108 ringgits (equivalent to Rs 1,28,819) per tonne.

At the time of writing this report, the May delivery of Malaysian crude palm oil futures was at 6,901 ringgits.

“Disruption in Ukrainian sunflower oil supply is expected to persist sometime,” said Vinod T.P., an analyst at Geojit Financial Services.

The near-term resistance is seen at 7,250 ringgits, while the support at around 6,250 ringgits.

“The current rally in palm oil prices is also triggered due to panic buying, and positive news from the war front may correct its prices significantly,” Vinod said.

According to Mohit Vyas, an analyst at Kotak Securities: “Depleting palm oil stocks in world’s largest two palm oil producing countries (Indonesia and Malaysia), lower soybean crop worries from South American countries and reduced import duty by India may help palm oil prices maintain range-bound with positive bias momentum for near future.”

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Top traders’ body urges Indians to boycott travel to Turkey and Azerbaijan

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New Delhi, May 14: The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT), the apex body representing traders across the country, on Wednesday called upon Indian traders and citizens to completely boycott travel to Turkey and Azerbaijan in response to their open support for Pakistan.

Turkey received around 62.2 million foreign tourists in 2024, with approximately 300,000 tourists arriving from India alone. This marked a 20.7 per cent increase in Indian tourists compared to 2023.

Turkey’s total tourism revenue stood at $61.1 billion last year, with each Indian tourist spending an average of $972, amounting to a total estimated Indian expenditure of $291.6 million, according to data shared by CAIT.

The traders’ body said it has long been running a nationwide campaign to boycott Chinese products, which has had a considerable impact, and it now intends to extend this movement to Turkey and Azerbaijan.

The organisation will coordinate with travel and tour operators and other relevant stakeholders to intensify this campaign.

CAIT Secretary General Praveen Khandelwal emphasised a travel boycott by Indian citizens to Turkey and Azerbaijan, in protest against their support for Pakistan, could significantly affect the economies of these countries, particularly their tourism sector.

He stated that if Indian tourists boycott Turkey, the country could suffer a direct loss of approximately $291.6 million.

In addition to this, the cancellation of Indian weddings, corporate events and other cultural programmes would cause even further indirect economic losses, Khandelwal added.

Azerbaijan received about 2.6 million foreign tourists in 2024, of which around 250,000 were Indians. The average spending by an Indian tourist was 2,170 Azerbaijani Manat (AZN), which is approximately $1,276, leading to a total Indian contribution of roughly $308.6 million.

A boycott by Indian tourists could, therefore, result in a direct loss of this magnitude.

As Indians mainly visit Azerbaijan for leisure, weddings, entertainment and adventure activities, a large-scale decline could cause a noticeable economic slowdown in these sectors, said CAIT in its statement.

Thousands across the country have already cancelled their travel plans to these two countries while ticket booking platforms and travel operators have stopped bookings to these countries.

The Department of Tourism, Ankara, has urged Indian travellers to visit the country. “The vast majority of the local population is unaware of the conflict taking place between India and Pakistan, and it has no bearing on daily life or the tourism environment here,” it said in a statement.

According to Khandelwal, the economic pressure could force both Turkey and Azerbaijan to reconsider their policies towards India.

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Chinese missile maker’s stock tanks over 6 pc after India destroys its air weapon

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New Delhi, May 13: The shares of Zhuzhou Hongda Electronics Corp Ltd, the Chinese defence company that manufactures the PL-15 missile, dropped sharply by 6.42 per cent or 2.56 Yuan to 37.33 Yuan on Tuesday, after India’s air defence system successfully intercepted and destroyed the missile during the conflict with Pakistan.

Over the past month, the company’s shares have declined by 7.37 per cent, or 2.97 Yuan. However, the stock showed a brief 5-day recovery of 7.58 per cent.

The stock plunge came after Indian defence forces confirmed that the PL-15 missile, supplied to Pakistan by China, failed to penetrate the country’s multi-layered air defence system.

On the night of May 9 and 10, Pakistan launched a series of air attacks targeting Indian Air Force bases and military facilities using advanced weaponry, including the Chinese PL-15 missile and Turkish-made Byker YIHA III kamikaze drones.

However, India’s air defence successfully intercepted all threats.

The PL-15, a beyond-visual-range (BVR) air-to-air missile used by Pakistan’s JF-17 and J-10 fighter jets, was neutralised by indigenous defence systems.

This interception has raised questions about the real-world effectiveness of China’s missile technology, possibly triggering the decline in investor confidence in Zhuzhou Hongda.

India’s Director General of Air Operations, Air Marshal A.K. Bharti, displayed images of the intercepted weapons, showcasing how the Indian defence network had destroyed high-tech missiles and drones.

He credited India’s self-reliant defence capabilities, particularly the indigenous ‘Akash’ air defense system, as a crucial factor in neutralising the threat.

The Akash system, alongside vintage systems like Pichora and advanced platforms including MANPADS, short-range missiles, and fighter aircraft, formed a coordinated defense shield under the Integrated Air Command and Control System.

The Turkish Byker YIHA III drone, capable of carrying high-explosive payloads and designed for low-altitude, high-speed attacks, was also intercepted near Amritsar.

This drone was intended to cause significant damage to military or civilian targets, but failed to breach India’s defenses.

Lieutenant General Rajiv Ghai, Director General of Military Operations (DGMO), explained the multi-layered coordination among the Indian Army, Air Force, and Navy, describing a defence posture that was both measured and impenetrable.

Between May 9 and 10, India’s multi-layered air defence grid was put to the test as waves of drones, launched by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), attempted to penetrate Indian airspace. “Not a single PAF drone could breach the defence shield,” Lt Gen Ghai stated.

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Indian rupee opens stronger against US dollar

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Mumbai, May 13: The Indian rupee opened 75 paise stronger at 84.65 against the US dollar on Tuesday, following its previous close at 85.38 a dollar.

The trading range for the day was expected to be between 84.50 and 85.25, according to analysts. The dollar maintained its gains following a significant trade pact between the US and China.

The US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145 per cent to 30 per cent for 90 days, while China said it will cut tariffs on US goods from 125 per cent to 10 per cent for 90 days. The two countries will establish a mechanism to continue discussions about economic and trade relations.

According to analysts, any fresh developments on the geopolitical front are likely to have a significant impact on the rupee’s direction.

In FY25, rupee traded in the range of 83.10 and 87.6 against the greenback, initially weakening after the US election results and depreciating by 2.4 per cent over the year due to persistent FPI outflows and a strong US dollar.

Despite these challenges, the rupee remained relatively stable compared to other global currencies, supported by healthy government finances, a declining current account deficit, improved liquidity, and moderating oil prices, among others, according to the NSE’s ‘Market Pulse Report’ for April.

Towards the end of the year, a reversal in dollar strength and renewed FPI inflows into debt helped the rupee recover, appreciating by 2.4 per cent in March 2025.

The rupee’s average annualised volatility declined to 2.7 per cent in FY25, positioning it among the least volatile major emerging market currencies, highlighting India’s strong external buffers and proactive forex management.

“However, the rupee remained overvalued, with the 40-currency trade weighted REER rising to 105.3, although both REER and NEER moderated gradually from H1FY25, indicating an easing of overvaluation. The one-year forward premium for the rupee continued to moderate, reflecting changing premium dynamics and India’s macroeconomic resilience,” the report mentioned.

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