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Slow recovery of low income households slowed down India’s economic recovery

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The slow economic recovery of the low income households post Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in the overall economic recovery of the country, said Kotak Securities Ltd.

In a research report, Kotak Securities said, post Covid-19 pandemic, India’s economic recovery seems to be lukewarm on a three-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) basis.

The major economic parameters reveal slow post-pandemic recovery, with gross domestic product (GDP), goods and services tax (GST) collections, electricity demand, credit growth and auto sales growing somewhat slowly as against the expectations.

Kotak Securities attribute the weaker-than-expected recovery to the slow ‘repair’ in the income of low-income households.

“It may take a few more quarters for growth to recover to full potential,” the report said.

India’s 1QFY23 GDP grew at 1.3 per cent CAGR over the past three years, despite growing 13.5 per cent year-on-year (YoY).

According to the report, the survey-based employment data suggests that India has not completely recouped all the jobs lost during the pandemic.

“While formal job creation has been robust, the employment conditions remain frail in the lower-income groups, as employment-seeking under MNREGA is yet to reach pre-pandemic levels,” the report said.

It may take a few more quarters for employment and income to recover to pre-pandemic levels.

The six month GST collections in FY23 logged a growth of 13.8 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis.

The high wholesale price index (WPI) in the last couple of years may have helped higher GST collections in this period. The expectation is that the WPI will sharply trend lower over the next several months.

Collections have grown at a higher pace than nominal GDP growth rate (9.5 per cent on a three-year CAGR), suggesting some widening of the tax base.

On the industrial growth front, India’s indicators look rosy on a yoy basis but lose their sheen when examined on a three-year CAGR basis.

In particular, diesel consumption in 5MFY23 declined by 0.4 per cent and electricity demand grew at 4.7 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis.

Meanwhile, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) has seen a muted 2.2 per cent CAGR over the past three years, despite strong government and household investment.

Household investment in real estate was a key driver, seeing a 14 per cent three-year CAGR in major cities, while the Central government capex increased at 23 per cent three-year CAGR. As such, industrial production and private-sector investment are yet to show a meaningful recovery.

Private consumption has not seen much of a recovery, with private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) growing at 3.2 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis, Kotak Securities said.

The shallowness of the recovery is prominent in the automobile sector, especially in two wheelers as their sales volumes have declined at six per cent CAGR over the past three years (5MFY23 over 5MFY20), while hatchback (entry segment) volumes have increased at 3.2 per cent CAGR in the same period.

Air passenger traffic has also not seen a complete recovery in 5MFY23.

“We note that retail credit growth has been resilient at 15.3 per c ent CAGR, but not enough to pick up the slack in overall bank credit growth,” Kotak Securities said.

Business

Gold prices slide 1 pc on MCX as Fed Rate cut hopes fade

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Mumbai, Nov 24: Gold prices fell sharply on Monday as weak chances of a US Federal Reserve rate cut and easing geopolitical tensions weighed on investor sentiment.

A stronger US dollar also added pressure on the precious metal.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold December futures dropped 1 per cent to Rs 1,22,950 per 10 grams.

Silver followed the trend, with December futures falling 0.61 per cent to Rs 1,53,209 per kg in early trade.

“In INR gold has support at Rs1,23,450-1,22,480 while resistance at Rs1,24,750-1,25,500,” analysts said.

“Silver has support at Rs1,53,050-1,52,350 while resistance at Rs1,55,140, 1,55,980,” they added.

Analysts said gold currently lacks any strong positive trigger to maintain its previous gains.

The latest US job market data reduced expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which has been a key reason behind the correction in prices.

The strong economic data pushed the US dollar index to nearly a six-month high on Friday.

The index remained above the 100 level on Monday, making gold more expensive for buyers holding other currencies and restricting demand.

Geopolitical concerns have also eased in recent days, further reducing gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Experts believe the combination of a stronger dollar, uncertainty over US tariff decisions, developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the upcoming Fed policy announcement may keep gold prices volatile in the near term.

Some market analysts expect further correction and advise investors to stay cautious before making fresh purchases.

Gold is attempting to reclaim momentum as prices hover near $4,100, driven by growing expectations of a December Fed rate cut, now priced at 71 per cent probability after dovish hints from officials like Miran and Williams.

“Bullion has been choppy over the past three sessions, reflecting traders’ indecision, but with rate-cut bets rising and geopolitical risks lingering, dips in gold are likely to attract renewed buying interest in the coming week with next resistance seen around 125000 and support near 122000,” experts added.

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New labour codes to boost formalisation, gender parity of India’s workforce: Industry leaders

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New Delhi, Nov 22: India’s top industry bodies and staffing leaders on Saturday labelled the implementation of the Four Labour Codes a landmark step toward formalising the workforce, expanding social security, and aligning India’s labour framework with global standards.

The India Electronics & Semiconductor Association (IESA) said the reforms would significantly benefit the high-technology sectors by enhancing workforce stability, improving safety standards, and enabling labour flexibility with social protection.

“Mandatory appointment letters, universal minimum wages, and pan-India social security coverage (including ESIC expansion) ensure greater formalisation. This strengthens worker confidence — critical for skill-intensive manufacturing such as fabs, ATMP, component manufacturing and design centres,” said Ashok Chandak, President, IESA and SEMI India.

Provisions for fixed-term employment, faster dispute resolution, single licensing, and simplified compliance directly support the scaling of high-tech manufacturing clusters, the statement said.

Meanwhile, parity of benefits for Fixed-Term Employees (FTE) and expanded social security protections ensure a balanced, worker-centric ecosystem, he added.

Sachin Alug, CEO of NLB Services, a technology and digital talent provider, said the reforms were long overdue for India’s gig economy and will offer protection to a fast-growing but previously unorganised workforce.

The new laws are also expected to promote gender parity in the workforce by opening doors to wider opportunities across diverse sectors. Additionally, other groups such as”

He also pointed out that new laws will promote gender parity and contract workers, youth workers, and fixed-term employees will benefit from clearer working-hour norms, expanded social security, minimum wage protections, and health benefits.

“By simplifying compliance and unifying the regulatory framework, the codes can significantly expand formal employment, bringing millions of workers, especially in industries that rely on contract, temporary, and project-based roles, into the fold of structured, protected work,” said Balasubramanian A, Senior Vice President, TeamLease Services.

“National floor minimum wage creates a consistent benchmark across states and is an important step in India’s evolution from a minimum-wage economy to a living-wage economy,” he noted.

Suchita Dutta, Executive Director of Indian Staffing Federation (ISF), said the codes simplify compliance for employers, reduce regulatory burdens, and foster a more flexible hiring environment — crucial for the staffing industry, which has long advocated for such changes to unlock formal job creation.

The government, on November 21, implemented the Four Labour Codes — the Code on Wages (2019), Industrial Relations Code (2020), Code on Social Security (2020), and Occupational Safety, Health and Working Conditions (OSHWC) Code (2020) — repealing and rationalising 29 existing central labour laws.

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Nifty, Sensex continue rally for second week despite FII outflows

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Mumbai, Nov 22: Indian equity benchmarks made marginal gains for the second week, supported by stronger second quarter (Q2) earnings, easing inflation and optimism around the India-US trade negotiations.

Benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex edged higher 0.68 and 0.50 per cent during the week to close at 26,068 and 85,231, respectively.

Analysts said that a moderation in FII selling due to expectations of earnings upgrades in H2 FY26 also supported the rally. However, markets turned volatile on Friday amid weak global cues. The Nifty fell after failing to cross its previous all-time highs of 26,277, ending its two-day advance.

Broader indices underperformed, with the Nifty Midcap100 and Smallcap100 ending the week down 0.76 per cent and 2.2 per cent, respectively.

Though IT stocks faced selling pressure due to weakness in the US tech shares, it was the biggest weekly gainer. Nifty Auto and Services followed as the secoral gainers during the week. On Friday, metals and realty were the worst hit, both dropping over 2 per cent, followed by PSU banks, financial services and media.

A better-than-expected non-farm payroll dimmed hopes of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in December putting pressure on global equities. Resultantly gold also witnessed selling pressure while INR declined to a new low.

The oil prices declined due to the US’s renewed push for a Russia-Ukraine peace proposal.

“The market may witness some profit booking in the near term if the pressure on Indian rupee persists. In the week ahead, investors will also have a close vigil on trade developments and economic data like IIP and Q2 FY26 GDP data to get the market direction,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited.

Analysts said that they expect markets to remain firm next week supported by buying on dips, improving demand outlook in Q3 and resilient flows.

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