Business
Slow recovery of low income households slowed down India’s economic recovery
The slow economic recovery of the low income households post Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in the overall economic recovery of the country, said Kotak Securities Ltd.
In a research report, Kotak Securities said, post Covid-19 pandemic, India’s economic recovery seems to be lukewarm on a three-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) basis.
The major economic parameters reveal slow post-pandemic recovery, with gross domestic product (GDP), goods and services tax (GST) collections, electricity demand, credit growth and auto sales growing somewhat slowly as against the expectations.
Kotak Securities attribute the weaker-than-expected recovery to the slow ‘repair’ in the income of low-income households.
“It may take a few more quarters for growth to recover to full potential,” the report said.
India’s 1QFY23 GDP grew at 1.3 per cent CAGR over the past three years, despite growing 13.5 per cent year-on-year (YoY).
According to the report, the survey-based employment data suggests that India has not completely recouped all the jobs lost during the pandemic.
“While formal job creation has been robust, the employment conditions remain frail in the lower-income groups, as employment-seeking under MNREGA is yet to reach pre-pandemic levels,” the report said.
It may take a few more quarters for employment and income to recover to pre-pandemic levels.
The six month GST collections in FY23 logged a growth of 13.8 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis.
The high wholesale price index (WPI) in the last couple of years may have helped higher GST collections in this period. The expectation is that the WPI will sharply trend lower over the next several months.
Collections have grown at a higher pace than nominal GDP growth rate (9.5 per cent on a three-year CAGR), suggesting some widening of the tax base.
On the industrial growth front, India’s indicators look rosy on a yoy basis but lose their sheen when examined on a three-year CAGR basis.
In particular, diesel consumption in 5MFY23 declined by 0.4 per cent and electricity demand grew at 4.7 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis.
Meanwhile, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) has seen a muted 2.2 per cent CAGR over the past three years, despite strong government and household investment.
Household investment in real estate was a key driver, seeing a 14 per cent three-year CAGR in major cities, while the Central government capex increased at 23 per cent three-year CAGR. As such, industrial production and private-sector investment are yet to show a meaningful recovery.
Private consumption has not seen much of a recovery, with private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) growing at 3.2 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis, Kotak Securities said.
The shallowness of the recovery is prominent in the automobile sector, especially in two wheelers as their sales volumes have declined at six per cent CAGR over the past three years (5MFY23 over 5MFY20), while hatchback (entry segment) volumes have increased at 3.2 per cent CAGR in the same period.
Air passenger traffic has also not seen a complete recovery in 5MFY23.
“We note that retail credit growth has been resilient at 15.3 per c ent CAGR, but not enough to pick up the slack in overall bank credit growth,” Kotak Securities said.
Business
‘Its Prime Real Estate’: Anand Mahindra Expresses Awe At Grandiose Of Brabus Big Boy 1200
In the City of Dreams that is Mumbai, one of the biggest ‘dreams’ of most who live in the metropolis is to find an abode, that they can call it their own. Real estate in Mumbai is known for its sky-high pricing, with figures of Rs 10-15 crore not surprising anyone.
The Motorhome
Space is a major issue in city, given the paucity of it, in a region that encompasses millions. However, what happens when the space is not only available but also mobile? That is precisely what a ‘motorhome’.
It may not been the most commonly seen or discussed avenue in this part of the world, but in other parts of the world, particularly in the US, an RV or recreational vehicle is the way of life, either by choice or by circumstance.
Mahindra Group chairman, Anand Mahindra recently reacted to one such motorhome. In a post on X, he shared a minute-long clipping of the Brabus Big Boy 1200. This is an uber-luxe, profligate motorhome manufactured by the German automobile company Brabus.
Mahindra, while reacting to the video of a person showing around the bus said, That’s not transport. It’s prime real estate.”
And one may arguably agree with Mahindra on this. The vehicle is extravagant and has a length of 12 meters or 39.4 ft and over 30 square meters or 320 sq ft. For context, the average size of homes in city of Mumbai hovers around 400-700 sq ft.
What Are The Features Of This Motorhome?
In addition, the vehicle also has two electrically extendable slide-outs on each side. These slide-outs can extend the bedroom and saloon to a width of 4.50 meters.
In addition, the motorhome also consists of a double bed measuring 160 x 200 centimeters.
A closet is integrated into the rear wall of the vehicle.
For amusement, the vehicle also has a desk and a 43-inch 4K television. Here one could watch TV programs that have been made available on the system play games on the integrated Playstation 5 system.
In addition, one can also connect to the internet through the Starlink system.
When it comes to the vehicle, it runs on a12.8-liter six-cylinder turbodiesel engine. This engine can deliver 390 kW / 530 hp and can generate a maximum torque of 2,600 Nm.
The vehicle is priced at around USD 1.5 million or a whopping Rs 12 crore.
Business
Maha will play key role in achieving India’s $5 trillion economy goal: Minister Tatkare
Nagpur, Dec 21: Representing Maharashtra in the pre-Union Budget meeting held in Jaisalmer, Minister Aditi Tatkare on Saturday assured that Maharashtra would play a pivotal role in India’s journey towards becoming a $5 trillion economy.
She emphasised the need for special financial assistance to the state in the upcoming Union Budget.
Minister Tatkare presented Maharashtra’s vision, highlighting its strategic role in realising the Prime Minister’s goal of a ‘Viksit Bharat’ by 2047.
Minister Tatkare outlined several critical issues and proposals for inclusion in the Union Budget. She urged the finance minister for central assistance for state Capital Investment by enhancing the allocation under the Scheme for Special Assistance to States for Capital Investment.
She emphasised the need for streamlining fund disbursement timelines to provide qualifying states with a minimum one-year utilisation window.
In the wake of rapid urbanisation, Minister Tatkare called for central support to tackle the challenges faced by the state.
“Maharashtra, with urbanisation expected to surpass 50 per cent in the upcoming census, faces challenges in resource mobilisation for urban local bodies (ULBs). The state government urges support for ULBs to access long-term loans for planned urban development and infrastructure enhancement,” she said.
Under the MukhyaMantri Saur Krushi Vahini Yojana 2.0, aimed at solarising agricultural feeders, Minister Tatkare sought increased targets and funding allocations for Maharashtra.
She requested expansion of Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) capacity from 500 MWh to 9,000 MWh to meet the state’s energy storage goals.
In order to further boost the modernisation of the home department, Minister Tatkare sought funds on a 60:40 basis, for projects such as digital forensic labs, mobile forensic vans, AMBIS systems, and the Cyber Security Project (Rs 837.86 crore).
She highlighted the need for funding major initiatives like Dial 112 emergency services integration and Maharashtra Police Station CCTV projects.
She urged financial support for faster case disposal through enhanced infrastructure for the judiciary.
She requested funding for constructing the Bombay High Court Complex in Bandra (East), estimated at Rs 3,750 crore.
Further, to push the implementation of the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) economic master plan, Minister Tatkare proposed a special package.
The master plan is aligning with NITI Aayog’s vision to transform MMR into a national growth hub by 2030.
According to NITI Aayog, the MMR has a potential to increase its GDP to $300 billion by 2030 from the present level of $140 billion.
The Centre’s public policy think tank has asked the Maharashtra government to concentrate on seven growth drivers and attract investment of $125-135 billion from the private sector to achieve the target.
In a bid to push the state government’s ambitious plan to make Maharashtra drought-free, the state government has sought central government support to include state-funded river-linking projects like Wainganga-Nalganga and Damanganga-Godavari under the National Interlinking of Rivers Scheme.
Further, the state government appealed to the Centre to ease revenue expenditure pressures to create fiscal space for capital projects and establish a ‘Kisan Vishesh Sahayata Nidhi’ to compensate farmers affected by trade policy interventions.
The state government also appealed for the enhancement of funding for ongoing schemes like the Jal Jeevan Mission and financial assistance for disaster-affected areas.
Minister Tatkare said the comprehensive representation highlighted Maharashtra’s ambitions and challenges, ensuring the state’s priorities were well-articulated for the Union Budget deliberations.
She reiterated Maharashtra’s commitment to becoming a cornerstone of India’s economic growth and development trajectory.
Business
Domestic stock markets to end 2024 on positive note, Nifty clocks 13 pc gain
New Delhi, Dec 21: Riding on resilient economic growth, the domestic stock markets are ending 2024 on a positive note, with Nifty registering a 13 per cent gain (year-to-date) — its ninth consecutive year of positive gains, a Motilal Oswal Wealth Management report said on Saturday.
The first half of the year saw robust corporate earnings, a surge in domestic flows, and a resilient macro landscape, driving the Nifty to an all-time high of 26,277 in September.
In fact, the markets navigated significant events, such several global geo-political issues, General Elections and Budget in India, and any dips were swiftly met with strong buying activity, the report mentioned.
“The year 2025 could unfold as a tale of two halves. The first half may continue to see market consolidation, while a recovery could take place in the second half,” it added.
In the last two months, the market has corrected 11 per cent from its all-time high, amid selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) due to a combination of domestic and global factors.
Going forward, the Indian markets are likely to face significant influences from a combination of global and domestic economic events.
The anticipated rate cut by the RBI in February, the ongoing trend of US rate cuts, and the expectations surrounding trade policy changes post Donald Trump taking over as US President in January will contribute to market volatility.
“Additionally, the Union Budget in February will offer important signals to the market. With a fragile global economic environment and mixed macroeconomic factors at home, the market is expected to remain in consolidation mode in the near term,” the report noted.
Earnings are expected to recover in H2 FY25, driven by increased rural spending, a buoyant wedding season, and pickup in government spending.
“We further expect earnings to gain momentum, delivering a 16 per cent CAGR over FY25-27E. We remain optimistic about the long-term trend, given the strength of corporate India’s balance sheets and the prospects for robust, profitable growth,” the report said.
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