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Slow recovery of low income households slowed down India’s economic recovery

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The slow economic recovery of the low income households post Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in the overall economic recovery of the country, said Kotak Securities Ltd.

In a research report, Kotak Securities said, post Covid-19 pandemic, India’s economic recovery seems to be lukewarm on a three-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) basis.

The major economic parameters reveal slow post-pandemic recovery, with gross domestic product (GDP), goods and services tax (GST) collections, electricity demand, credit growth and auto sales growing somewhat slowly as against the expectations.

Kotak Securities attribute the weaker-than-expected recovery to the slow ‘repair’ in the income of low-income households.

“It may take a few more quarters for growth to recover to full potential,” the report said.

India’s 1QFY23 GDP grew at 1.3 per cent CAGR over the past three years, despite growing 13.5 per cent year-on-year (YoY).

According to the report, the survey-based employment data suggests that India has not completely recouped all the jobs lost during the pandemic.

“While formal job creation has been robust, the employment conditions remain frail in the lower-income groups, as employment-seeking under MNREGA is yet to reach pre-pandemic levels,” the report said.

It may take a few more quarters for employment and income to recover to pre-pandemic levels.

The six month GST collections in FY23 logged a growth of 13.8 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis.

The high wholesale price index (WPI) in the last couple of years may have helped higher GST collections in this period. The expectation is that the WPI will sharply trend lower over the next several months.

Collections have grown at a higher pace than nominal GDP growth rate (9.5 per cent on a three-year CAGR), suggesting some widening of the tax base.

On the industrial growth front, India’s indicators look rosy on a yoy basis but lose their sheen when examined on a three-year CAGR basis.

In particular, diesel consumption in 5MFY23 declined by 0.4 per cent and electricity demand grew at 4.7 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis.

Meanwhile, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) has seen a muted 2.2 per cent CAGR over the past three years, despite strong government and household investment.

Household investment in real estate was a key driver, seeing a 14 per cent three-year CAGR in major cities, while the Central government capex increased at 23 per cent three-year CAGR. As such, industrial production and private-sector investment are yet to show a meaningful recovery.

Private consumption has not seen much of a recovery, with private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) growing at 3.2 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis, Kotak Securities said.

The shallowness of the recovery is prominent in the automobile sector, especially in two wheelers as their sales volumes have declined at six per cent CAGR over the past three years (5MFY23 over 5MFY20), while hatchback (entry segment) volumes have increased at 3.2 per cent CAGR in the same period.

Air passenger traffic has also not seen a complete recovery in 5MFY23.

“We note that retail credit growth has been resilient at 15.3 per c ent CAGR, but not enough to pick up the slack in overall bank credit growth,” Kotak Securities said.

Business

Nifty, Sensex open flat as investors wait for fresh cues, US Fed meet outcome

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Mumbai, Sep 15: The Indian benchmark indices opened on the flat note with a positive bias on Monday, on the back of positive domestic inflation data and growing expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut.

As of 9.30 am, the Sensex was up 4.5 points or 0.005 per cent at 81,909, and the Nifty was up 4.15 points or 0.017 per cent at 25,118.

The broadcap indices outperformed benchmark indices, as Nifty Midcap 100 inched up by 0.26 per cent, and the Nifty Small cap 100 moved up 0.53 per cent.

Bajaj Finance, Tata Motors, Hero Motocorp and Bajaj Finserv were the top gainers on NSE Nifty 50 index. Infosys Ltd., Tata Consultancy Services, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd., and Shriram Finance Ltd. weighed on the Nifty 50 index.

Among sectoral indices, Nifty Realty, the top gainer, jumped 1.19 per cent. Nifty PSU bank (up 0.39 per cent) and Nifty Auto (up 0.38 per cent) were the other major gainers. Nifty Pharma was the top loser down 0.78 per cent.

Inflation had cooled to 2.07 per cent well below the RBI’s projection of 3.1 per cent in August, latest government data said.

Analysts said that Indian equities, which have recently underperformed compared to global peers, now appear attractively valued. Positive factors such as ongoing GST reforms, anticipation of a Fed rate cut, and improving US–India trade ties are expected to further support the market.

Last week, Nifty 50 notched its eighth consecutive advance, closing above the symbolic 25,100 mark for the first time since July—its longest winning streak in a year and the biggest weekly gain in nearly three months.

“Nifty has been gradually taking out the crucial resistances and on the weekly chart, the Nifty has confirmed a pattern of higher tops and higher bottoms, which is an encouraging sign for a sustained positional bullish trend,” said Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research at HDFC Securities.

Nifty seems to be heading towards the next resistance of 25,250, while the 24,900 level could offer support, he added.

Major US indices posted strong weekly gains and closed near all time highs. The Nasdaq rose 2.0 per cent, the S&P 500 gained 1.6 per cent, and the Dow advanced 1.0 per cent, marking the best week since early August.

Most of the Asian markets made strong gains during the morning session. While China’s Shanghai index advanced 0.22 per cent, and Shenzhen added 1.07 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.89 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index jumped 0.32 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi inched up 0.52 per cent.

The US markets are pricing in a 96.4 per cent probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut on September 17, with additional cuts expected through year-end. Softer labour data and persistent inflation support the dovish shift, boosting demand for equities and cryptocurrencies, said analysts.

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Business

Adani Power signs pact to supply 2,400 MW power to Bihar

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New Delhi, Sep 13: In a significant development, Adani Power Ltd (APL) has signed a 25-year power supply agreement with Bihar State Power Generation Company Ltd (BSPGCL) to supply 2,400 megawatt (MW) of power to the state, the Adani Group’s firm said on Saturday.

Under the agreement, the India’s largest private sector thermal power generator would supply the proposed power from a greenfield ultra super critical plant to be set up at Pirpainti in Bhagalpur district of Bihar.

The development came after a Letter of Award (LoA) by BSPGCL to APL, on behalf of North Bihar Power Distribution Company Ltd (NBPDCL) and South Bihar Power Distribution Company Ltd (SBPDCL) in August.

Adani Power won the project by offering the lowest supply rate at Rs 6.075 per kWh.

“The company is planning to invest approximately $3 billion to build the new plant (800 MW X 3) and its supporting infrastructure under the Design, Build, Finance, Own, and Operate (DBFOO) model,” the APL informed.

The coal linkage for the power plant has been allocated under the SHAKTI Policy of the government of India.

During the construction phase, the project will generate around 10,000 to 12,000 direct and indirect employment. Once it becomes operational, it will employ 3,000 people.

APL aims to commission the plant in 60 months.

Earlier, in a first-of-its-kind adoption of the greenshoe option in a thermal power tender in India, APL was awarded a total of 1,600 MW capacity by MP Power Management Company Limited (MPPMCL).

The company received a LoA from MPPMCL, awarding 800 MW additional capacity under the ‘Greenshoe Option’.

Both units (800MW x 2) in Anuppur district, Madhya Pradesh, will be commissioned within 60 months of the appointed date.

APL said that it will invest around Rs 21,000 crore towards setting up the plant and related infrastructure.

The project is expected to generate direct and indirect employment of 9,000-10,000 during the construction phase, and 2,000 once in operation.

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Business

Stock market ends week on positive note, clock 8 consecutive session gains despite uncertainties

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Mumbai, Sep 12: The Indian equity indices ended the week on a positive note on Friday, maintaining the winning streak for the eight consecutive trading sessions despite geo-political uncertainties.

Optimism over a potential rate cut by the US Fed, positive developments in India-US trade talks and buying in defence stocks fueled the market sentiment.

Sensex settled the session at 81,904.70, up 355.97 points or 0.44 per cent. The 30-share index started trading with a decent gap-up at 81,758.95 against last day’s closing of 81,548.73. The index extended the momentum further amid positive global cues to hit an intraday high at 81,992.85.

Nifty closed at 25,114.0, up 108.50 points or 0.43 per cent.

The national market closed at a three-week high, supported by renewed global optimism over a potential Fed rate cut. Sentiments improved further on reports that the EU may reject U.S. tariff proposals on India for buying Russian oil, analysts said.

Progress in the US-India trade talks is also expected to keep the positive momentum intact in the near term. The defence sector outperformed, aided by the Indian procurement authorities beginning negotiations for six next-generation conventional submarines, analysts added.

BEL, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj FinServ, Axis Bank, Maruti, Tata Motors, ICICI Bank, L&T, Infosys, and PowerGrid were the top gainers from the Sensex basket. Eternal, Hindustan Unilever, Trent, Asian Paint, Bharati Airtel and ITC settled lower.

The majority of sectoral indices settled higher. Nifty Fin Services jumped 184 points or 0.70 per cent, Nifty Bank escalated 139 points or 0.26 per cent, Nifty Auto increased 122 points or 0.46 per cent, and Nifty IT settled the session 107 points or 0.3 per cent. Nifty FMCG fell.

Broader indices followed suit as well. Nifty Smallcap 100 moved 114 points or 0.64 per cent, Nifty Midcap 100 jumped 183 points or 0.32 per cent, and Nifty 100 closed 106 points or 0.41 per cent.

Rupee traded positively with gains of 0.18 per cent at 88.27 as mixed FII inflows supported sentiment.

“The dollar index remained weak below 98, providing additional strength to the rupee, while ongoing trade deal talks with the US also added optimism. Weakness in crude prices offered further minor support,” said Jateen Trivedi f LKP Securities.

Overall, the rupee looks set to gain some lost ground with scope to test 87.75 in the coming days, while 88.50 is seen as a reversal resistance zone, he added.

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