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Slow recovery of low income households slowed down India’s economic recovery

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The slow economic recovery of the low income households post Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in the overall economic recovery of the country, said Kotak Securities Ltd.

In a research report, Kotak Securities said, post Covid-19 pandemic, India’s economic recovery seems to be lukewarm on a three-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) basis.

The major economic parameters reveal slow post-pandemic recovery, with gross domestic product (GDP), goods and services tax (GST) collections, electricity demand, credit growth and auto sales growing somewhat slowly as against the expectations.

Kotak Securities attribute the weaker-than-expected recovery to the slow ‘repair’ in the income of low-income households.

“It may take a few more quarters for growth to recover to full potential,” the report said.

India’s 1QFY23 GDP grew at 1.3 per cent CAGR over the past three years, despite growing 13.5 per cent year-on-year (YoY).

According to the report, the survey-based employment data suggests that India has not completely recouped all the jobs lost during the pandemic.

“While formal job creation has been robust, the employment conditions remain frail in the lower-income groups, as employment-seeking under MNREGA is yet to reach pre-pandemic levels,” the report said.

It may take a few more quarters for employment and income to recover to pre-pandemic levels.

The six month GST collections in FY23 logged a growth of 13.8 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis.

The high wholesale price index (WPI) in the last couple of years may have helped higher GST collections in this period. The expectation is that the WPI will sharply trend lower over the next several months.

Collections have grown at a higher pace than nominal GDP growth rate (9.5 per cent on a three-year CAGR), suggesting some widening of the tax base.

On the industrial growth front, India’s indicators look rosy on a yoy basis but lose their sheen when examined on a three-year CAGR basis.

In particular, diesel consumption in 5MFY23 declined by 0.4 per cent and electricity demand grew at 4.7 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis.

Meanwhile, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) has seen a muted 2.2 per cent CAGR over the past three years, despite strong government and household investment.

Household investment in real estate was a key driver, seeing a 14 per cent three-year CAGR in major cities, while the Central government capex increased at 23 per cent three-year CAGR. As such, industrial production and private-sector investment are yet to show a meaningful recovery.

Private consumption has not seen much of a recovery, with private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) growing at 3.2 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis, Kotak Securities said.

The shallowness of the recovery is prominent in the automobile sector, especially in two wheelers as their sales volumes have declined at six per cent CAGR over the past three years (5MFY23 over 5MFY20), while hatchback (entry segment) volumes have increased at 3.2 per cent CAGR in the same period.

Air passenger traffic has also not seen a complete recovery in 5MFY23.

“We note that retail credit growth has been resilient at 15.3 per c ent CAGR, but not enough to pick up the slack in overall bank credit growth,” Kotak Securities said.

Business

Nescafé Premix Qualifies As ‘Instant Coffee’, Attracts Lower 8 Per Cent Sales Tax: Bombay HC

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Mumbai: In a significant ruling on product classification under the Bombay Sales Tax Act, 1959, the Bombay High Court has held that Nescafé Premix must be taxed at 8% as “coffee / instant coffee,” and not at the higher rate of 16% applicable to general beverage powders.

A bench of Justices M. S. Sonak and Advait Sethna reiterated the cardinal principle that specific tax entries must prevail over general ones. Applying the common parlance test, the court concluded that Nescafé Premix, as marketed and consumed, had created a clear perception of “instant coffee”.

The case arose from a dispute between Nestlé India Ltd. and the Sales Tax Department regarding whether Nescafé Premix — containing 8.5% soluble coffee powder, 54% sucrose, 37% partially skimmed milk powder and 0.5% maltodextrin — should be classified under Schedule Entry C-II-3 (8%) or Entry C-II-18(2) (16%).

The Commissioner of Sales Tax had earlier ruled in 1998 that the product fell under the higher-taxed general entry for powders used in non-alcoholic beverages, emphasising that the coffee content was “minuscule 8.5%”.

The Maharashtra Sales Tax Tribunal reversed this decision in 2001, holding that ingredient percentage was not decisive — relying on Supreme Court precedent that even small quantities, like salt in food, do not alter the essential character of the final product.

Upholding the Tribunal’s order, the HC stressed that the product’s actual use and consumer understanding were crucial. “Ultimately, in all such matters, we must go by the common parlance test,” the bench said.

It noted that the premix was expressly marketed as Nescafé Premix and used to dispense Nescafé from vending machines simply by adding hot water. “The resultant product, in common parlance, was nothing but Nescafé,” the Court observed.

Rejecting the Department’s argument that low coffee content disqualified it from being considered instant coffee, the Court agreed with the Tribunal that removing coffee powder altogether would fundamentally change the product’s identity — demonstrating that the coffee component, though proportionally small, was determinative of classification.

The bench also emphasised that Entry C-II-3, covering “coffee” and “instant coffee”, was a specific entry and therefore prevailed over the general entry for beverage powders under C-II-18(2). “The concept of instant coffee must conform to modern development and modern perceptions,” the Court added.

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Business

Indian stock market ends in bullish tone after RBI rate cut

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Mumbai, Dec 6: Indian equity benchmarks made marginal losses after hitting record highs and three weeks of consecutive gains due to profit booking. However, the market ended the week in a bullish tone after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) delivered a 25 bps rate cut that lifted investor sentiment.

Benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex dipped 0.37 and 0.27 per cent during the week to close at 26,186 and 85,712, respectively.

Early optimism driven by strong Q2 GDP print and robust auto sales was overshadowed by persistent FII outflows, sharp rupee depreciation, and uncertainty over trade negotiations.

Broader indices underperformed, with the Nifty Midcap100 and Smallcap100 down 0.73 per cent and 1.80 per cent, respectively in a week.

Sentiment reversed on Friday after the RBI surprised markets with a 25-bps rate cut, supported by lower inflation forecasts and liquidity measures.

Gains during the week were led by auto, IT due to festive demand and favourable currency tailwinds. Banks, Finances, consumer durables, power, chemicals and oil & gas lagged.

As long as Nifty sustains above the 26,050–26,000 band, the bullish structure remains valid. Immediate resistance now lies at 26,350–26,500 zone and a break below 26,000 could lead to profit booking, said market experts.

With India’s economic growth remaining resilient despite tariff pressures and global headwinds, the Indian equity market is well-positioned to benefit if global fund flows begin to rotate back into emerging markets, market watchers said.

Investors are keen on cues from the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision next week. Markets have already begun pricing in a 25 bps rate cut, supported by dovish commentary from several Fed officials and recent data pointing to softening labour market conditions.

Analysts said that shift in US Fed’s policy stance could sway currency movements and materially influence foreign portfolio investor flows into emerging markets including India.

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Business

IndiGo Crisis: 75-Yr-Old Woman Waits Hours For Luggage Without Medicines At Mumbai T2 Airport

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Mumbai, Dec 05: When IndiGo’s nationwide operational meltdown began disrupting flights earlier this week, thousands of passengers were caught in chaos across the country. Among them was a 75-year-old woman whose ordeal at Mumbai’s Terminal 2 gained attention after her daughter shared a distressed post on X. Thankfully, the woman has now reached home safely, but her experience reflects the scale of frustration travellers are facing.

In her post on X, Punita Toraskar wrote that her elderly mother had been waiting at T2 since noon, and even by 4:42 pm, she still hadn’t received her luggage. The situation was more alarming because the 75-year-old needed to take her medicines but was stuck waiting on an empty stomach, stranded amid the airport chaos.

Toraskar’s post quickly resonated with passengers across India who have been struggling with severe delays, cancellations, and a complete breakdown of communication from India’s largest airline.

IndiGo is currently grappling with one of the biggest operational crises in its history. Nearly 900 flights have been cancelled since Tuesday, triggered by a mix of staff shortages and the airline’s struggle to adapt to stringent new crew duty regulations.

Passengers at major airports — Delhi, Hyderabad, Bengaluru, and Kolkata — are facing hours-long queues, mounting delays, and skyrocketing airfares as alternative flight options shrink. Hotels are filling up, tempers are rising, and social media is flooded with frustration.

IndiGo has issued public apologies and claims it is rebooting its systems and schedules to stabilise operations. But for many travellers like Toraskar’s mother, the damage is already done.

Despite the turmoil, Punita confirmed later that her mother had finally reached home safely, a small relief in a week of aviation chaos.

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