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Slow recovery of low income households slowed down India’s economic recovery

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The slow economic recovery of the low income households post Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in the overall economic recovery of the country, said Kotak Securities Ltd.

In a research report, Kotak Securities said, post Covid-19 pandemic, India’s economic recovery seems to be lukewarm on a three-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) basis.

The major economic parameters reveal slow post-pandemic recovery, with gross domestic product (GDP), goods and services tax (GST) collections, electricity demand, credit growth and auto sales growing somewhat slowly as against the expectations.

Kotak Securities attribute the weaker-than-expected recovery to the slow ‘repair’ in the income of low-income households.

“It may take a few more quarters for growth to recover to full potential,” the report said.

India’s 1QFY23 GDP grew at 1.3 per cent CAGR over the past three years, despite growing 13.5 per cent year-on-year (YoY).

According to the report, the survey-based employment data suggests that India has not completely recouped all the jobs lost during the pandemic.

“While formal job creation has been robust, the employment conditions remain frail in the lower-income groups, as employment-seeking under MNREGA is yet to reach pre-pandemic levels,” the report said.

It may take a few more quarters for employment and income to recover to pre-pandemic levels.

The six month GST collections in FY23 logged a growth of 13.8 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis.

The high wholesale price index (WPI) in the last couple of years may have helped higher GST collections in this period. The expectation is that the WPI will sharply trend lower over the next several months.

Collections have grown at a higher pace than nominal GDP growth rate (9.5 per cent on a three-year CAGR), suggesting some widening of the tax base.

On the industrial growth front, India’s indicators look rosy on a yoy basis but lose their sheen when examined on a three-year CAGR basis.

In particular, diesel consumption in 5MFY23 declined by 0.4 per cent and electricity demand grew at 4.7 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis.

Meanwhile, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) has seen a muted 2.2 per cent CAGR over the past three years, despite strong government and household investment.

Household investment in real estate was a key driver, seeing a 14 per cent three-year CAGR in major cities, while the Central government capex increased at 23 per cent three-year CAGR. As such, industrial production and private-sector investment are yet to show a meaningful recovery.

Private consumption has not seen much of a recovery, with private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) growing at 3.2 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis, Kotak Securities said.

The shallowness of the recovery is prominent in the automobile sector, especially in two wheelers as their sales volumes have declined at six per cent CAGR over the past three years (5MFY23 over 5MFY20), while hatchback (entry segment) volumes have increased at 3.2 per cent CAGR in the same period.

Air passenger traffic has also not seen a complete recovery in 5MFY23.

“We note that retail credit growth has been resilient at 15.3 per c ent CAGR, but not enough to pick up the slack in overall bank credit growth,” Kotak Securities said.

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India, Canada discuss ways to boost bilateral trade, promote investments

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New Delhi, Nov 13: Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal and Maninder Sidhu, Canada’s Minister of International Trade, discussed ways to further boost bilateral trade and promote investments, it was announced on Thursday.

Sidhu is in India to find opportunities to advance trade and investment linkages between the two nations.

“It was a pleasure to co-chair the 7th India-Canada Ministerial Dialogue on Trade and Investment as part of the New Roadmap 2025 along with @MSidhuLiberal, Canada’s Minister of International Trade,” Goyal posted on the X social media platform.

The minister further stated that they discussed “avenues to strengthen bilateral trade, promote investments and deepen cooperation between our countries”.

During his India visit, Sidhu is set to promote Canada’s commitment to supporting and growing the well-established commercial ties shared by Canada and India, including artificial intelligence, clean technology and digital industries, and explore new opportunities for partnerships that benefit workers and businesses in both countries.

“This visit to India will reinforce Canada’s commitment to diversifying our trade relationships and attracting new investment,” an official statement quoting Sidhu said. “As one of the fastest-growing major economies, India offers significant opportunities for Canadian businesses and workers. Our commercial ties continue to expand — bilateral trade surpassed $30 billion in 2024 — and there is even greater potential ahead,” the statement added.

India is a key partner as Canada strengthens its economic links in the Indo-Pacific region under a comprehensive strategy for the region. In 2024, India was Canada’s seventh-largest goods and services trading partner, with two-way trade valued at $30.9 billion.

Meanwhile, External Affairs Minister (EAM) S. Jaishankar and his Canadian counterpart, Anita Anand, held discussions on strengthening cooperation across key sectors, including trade, energy and security. Both leaders met on the sidelines of the G7 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Niagara.

EAM Jaishankar also praised the progress made under the New Roadmap 2025, aimed at enhancing bilateral ties between India and Canada and expressed hope for rebuilding a stronger partnership.

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ED arrests Jaypee Group chief Manoj Gaur in money laundering case

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New Delhi, Nov 13: The Enforcement Directorate (ED) has arrested Manoj Gaur, Managing Director of Jaypee Infratech Limited, in a money laundering case linked to the alleged siphoning of money paid by homebuyers for the construction of flats, according to sources on Thursday.

The Enforcement Directorate had in May carried out searches at 15 premises linked to Manoj Gaur’s flagship real estate development companies — Jaypee Infratech Ltd., and Jayprakash Associates Ltd, as well as their associated entities.

During the operation, officials seized hard cash to the tune of Rs 1.7 crore, along with financial records, digital data, and property documents registered in the names of promoters, their family members, and group companies.

The raids were carried out across Delhi, Mumbai, Noida, and Ghaziabad as part of an ongoing investigation under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA).

IDBI Bank had first filed a petition against Jaypee Infratech Limited (JIL) in the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT), Allahabad, after JIL defaulted on a payment of over Rs 526 crore. The NCLT initiated the insolvency process on August 9, 2017.

The insolvency case gained national attention due to over 21,000 homebuyers who had booked flats in JIL projects being left in the lurch as money had been diverted from construction projects, primarily in Wish Town, Noida.

The Supreme Court intervened to protect their interests, eventually leading to an amendment to the IBC that classified homebuyers as financial creditors, giving them a vote in the resolution process.

The case involved extensive legal proceedings, including disputes over transactions where JIL’s assets were mortgaged to secure the debts of its parent company, Jaiprakash Associates Limited (JAL).

After several rounds of bidding, the National Company Law Appellate Tribunal (NCLAT) approved a resolution plan submitted by the Suraksha Group in May 2024. Under this plan, Suraksha is to complete the unfinished projects and pay enhanced compensation to farmers as part of the land acquisition terms.

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Latest Cabinet decisions to ensure global competitiveness, boost self-reliance: PM Modi

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New Delhi, Nov 13: Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday said that the latest Union Cabinet decisions will ensure global competitiveness for the Indian exporters, while bolstering sustainability and self-reliance for domestic companies, especially MSMEs.

The Union Cabinet, chaired by PM Modi, on Wednesday approved the Export Promotion Mission (EPM), with an outlay of Rs 25,060 crore, to strengthen India’s export ecosystem. The flagship initiative was announced in the Union Budget 2025-26 to strengthen India’s export competitiveness, particularly for MSMEs, first-time exporters, and labour-intensive sectors.

“Ensuring ‘Made in India’ resonates even louder in the world market! The Union Cabinet approved the Export Promotion Mission (EPM), which will improve export competitiveness, help MSMEs, first-time exporters and sectors that are labour-intensive. It brings together key stakeholders to build a mechanism that is outcome based and effective,” PM Modi said in a post on the X social media platform.

The Cabinet also approved the introduction of the Credit Guarantee Scheme for Exporters for providing 100 per cent credit guarantee coverage to member lending institutions for extending additional credit facilities up to Rs 20,000 crore to eligible exporters, including MSMEs.

“The Credit Guarantee Scheme for Exporters which has been approved by the Cabinet will boost global competitiveness, ensure smooth business operations and help realise our dream of an Aatmanirbhar Bharat,” said the Prime Minister.

In yet another important decision, the Union Cabinet approved the rationalisation of royalty rates for four critical minerals — graphite, caesium, rubidium, and zirconium. The royalty rates have been specified or revised as follows: caesium and rubidium will each attract a 2 per cent royalty based on the average sale price (ASP) of the respective metal contained in the ore produced.

PM Modi said that this Cabinet decision “will boost sustainability and self-reliance. It will strengthen supply chains and create job opportunities as well”.

An increase in indigenous production of these minerals would lead to a reduction in imports and supply chain vulnerabilities, and also generate employment opportunities in the country.

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