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Slow recovery of low income households slowed down India’s economic recovery

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The slow economic recovery of the low income households post Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in the overall economic recovery of the country, said Kotak Securities Ltd.

In a research report, Kotak Securities said, post Covid-19 pandemic, India’s economic recovery seems to be lukewarm on a three-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) basis.

The major economic parameters reveal slow post-pandemic recovery, with gross domestic product (GDP), goods and services tax (GST) collections, electricity demand, credit growth and auto sales growing somewhat slowly as against the expectations.

Kotak Securities attribute the weaker-than-expected recovery to the slow ‘repair’ in the income of low-income households.

“It may take a few more quarters for growth to recover to full potential,” the report said.

India’s 1QFY23 GDP grew at 1.3 per cent CAGR over the past three years, despite growing 13.5 per cent year-on-year (YoY).

According to the report, the survey-based employment data suggests that India has not completely recouped all the jobs lost during the pandemic.

“While formal job creation has been robust, the employment conditions remain frail in the lower-income groups, as employment-seeking under MNREGA is yet to reach pre-pandemic levels,” the report said.

It may take a few more quarters for employment and income to recover to pre-pandemic levels.

The six month GST collections in FY23 logged a growth of 13.8 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis.

The high wholesale price index (WPI) in the last couple of years may have helped higher GST collections in this period. The expectation is that the WPI will sharply trend lower over the next several months.

Collections have grown at a higher pace than nominal GDP growth rate (9.5 per cent on a three-year CAGR), suggesting some widening of the tax base.

On the industrial growth front, India’s indicators look rosy on a yoy basis but lose their sheen when examined on a three-year CAGR basis.

In particular, diesel consumption in 5MFY23 declined by 0.4 per cent and electricity demand grew at 4.7 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis.

Meanwhile, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) has seen a muted 2.2 per cent CAGR over the past three years, despite strong government and household investment.

Household investment in real estate was a key driver, seeing a 14 per cent three-year CAGR in major cities, while the Central government capex increased at 23 per cent three-year CAGR. As such, industrial production and private-sector investment are yet to show a meaningful recovery.

Private consumption has not seen much of a recovery, with private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) growing at 3.2 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis, Kotak Securities said.

The shallowness of the recovery is prominent in the automobile sector, especially in two wheelers as their sales volumes have declined at six per cent CAGR over the past three years (5MFY23 over 5MFY20), while hatchback (entry segment) volumes have increased at 3.2 per cent CAGR in the same period.

Air passenger traffic has also not seen a complete recovery in 5MFY23.

“We note that retail credit growth has been resilient at 15.3 per c ent CAGR, but not enough to pick up the slack in overall bank credit growth,” Kotak Securities said.

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Sensex, Nifty extend gains on buying in heavyweights

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Mumbai, Oct 7: Indian stock markets continued their upward trend on Tuesday, supported by buying in major stocks such as ICICI Bank, ITC and more.

However, profit booking in select banking stocks limited the overall gains during the early trading hours.

The Sensex, which rose more than 100 points in early trade, was trading at 81,843, up 52 points or 0.06 per cent.

The Nifty also gained 34 points or 0.14 per cent to reach 25,112 after hitting an intra-day high of 25,140.

Among the top gainers on the Sensex were Power Grid, Bajaj Finance, HCL Tech, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, Ultratech Cement, NTPC, Hindustan Unilever, Bajaj Finserv, and BEL, which rose between 0.3 per cent and 1.6 per cent.

On the other hand, Trent, Axis Bank, Tata Motors, TCS, SBI, Kotak Bank, Tech Mahindra, HDFC Bank, and Infosys were among the major losers, slipping up to 2.7 per cent.

In the broader market, the Nifty MidCap index gained 0.08 per cent, while the Nifty SmallCap index rose 0.41 per cent — showing continued interest from investors in smaller companies.

Among sectoral indices, Nifty Metal and Nifty IT were the top performers, each gaining 0.4 per cent.

The Nifty PSU Bank index was the worst hit, falling 0.3 per cent due to profit booking in public sector lenders.

Analysts said that overall market sentiment remains positive, though some volatility may persist due to profit-taking at higher levels.

“The ongoing mild rally in the market has the potential to gain momentum. The FII selling in India is slowly declining since the sharp appreciation in other markets has pushed up their valuations and the valuation differential between India and other markets has come down,” analysts said.

“Since there is huge short position in the market any positive news can trigger short-covering, further aiding the rally,” they added.

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PM Modi to inaugurate India Mobile Congress 2025 on October 8

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New Delhi, Oct 6: Prime Minister Narendra Modi will inaugurate the India Mobile Congress (IMC) 2025, Asia’s premier telecom and technology event, on October 8 in the national capital, Ministry of Communications said on Monday.

The four-day mega event, themed “Innovate to Transform,” will run till October 11 and is expected to showcase India’s growing leadership in the global digital and telecom space.

Union Minister for Communications Jyotiraditya M. Scindia visited the IMC 2025 venue to review the final preparations ahead of the Prime Minister’s inauguration.

Scindia also travelled to the venue and back via the Airport Metro, symbolising India’s push for modern and sustainable urban transport.

During his visit, the minister toured the exhibition area, interacted with participating startups and exhibitors, and chaired review meetings with senior officials from the Department of Telecommunications (DoT), the Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI), and other partner agencies.

Speaking to the media, Scindia said that IMC 2025 would mark a new era in global connectivity, where technologies like 5G, 6G, artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), the Internet of Things (IoT), and satellite communications would come together to shape the future.

He emphasised that the event reflects Prime Minister Modi’s vision of a self-reliant and innovative India that connects not only within but also with the world.

IMC 2025 is expected to attract more than 1.5 lakh visitors, 7,000 delegates from over 150 countries, and 400 exhibitors spread across 4.5 lakh square feet.

The event will also feature over 1,600 technology demonstrations and 100 sessions with more than 800 speakers discussing the latest developments in telecom and digital innovation.

Highlighting the scale of the event, Scindia said that IMC has grown from being a national platform to becoming a global technology congress that represents India’s digital leadership.

He added that the 2025 edition will include six major global summits — covering 6G research, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, satellite communications, startups, and the Global Startup World Cup — India Edition.

The minister also underlined India’s achievements in the telecom sector, noting that the country now ranks among the world’s top three digital economies with 1.2 billion mobile subscribers, 970 million internet users, and the fastest-ever 5G rollout completed in just 22 months.

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Sensex rises 583 points, Nifty tops 25,000 as IT and banking stocks lead rally

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Mumbai, Oct 6: The Indian stock markets continued their winning streak for the third straight session on Monday, driven by strong buying in the IT and banking shares.

The benchmark Sensex jumped 582.95 points, or 0.72 per cent, to close at 81,790.12, while the Nifty rose 183.4 points, or 0.74 per cent, to end the day at 25,077.

“From a technical perspective, Nifty has successfully broken above the key psychological and technical resistance level of 25,000, turning the structure decisively positive,” analysts said.

“Any dip toward the 25,000 zone is expected to act as a strong support level, with immediate resistance seen at 25,200 and 25,500,” they added.

The Bank Nifty also delivered a stellar performance, opening with a gap-up and maintaining its upward trajectory through the session.

The index surged past 56,100, hitting an intra-day high of 56,164, with next resistance levels seen at 56,300–56,500, and support placed around 55,821–55,500, experts stated.

Broader markets also joined the rally, with the Nifty Midcap 100 gaining 0.89 per cent and the Nifty Smallcap 100 inching up 0.28 per cent.

In the Sensex pack, TCS, Tech Mahindra, Eternal, Axis Bank, and Bajaj Finance were the top performers, climbing as much as 3 per cent.

Meanwhile, Trent, Tata Steel, Power Grid, and Titan ended the session with losses. Among sectors, IT stocks led the gains as the Nifty IT index surged 2.28 per cent.

The Nifty Private Bank, Financial Services, and Healthcare indices also closed in positive territory.

On the other hand, Metal, FMCG, and Media shares came under pressure, slipping up to 1 per cent.

Market experts said the upbeat sentiment in IT stocks and strong institutional buying supported the overall market momentum.

“The domestic equity market ended the session on a positive note, led by gains in the financial services and IT sectors, ahead of the Q2 results,” they said.

“The banking index outperformed, bolstered by strong quarterly updates announced by large scheduled banks and attractive valuations, while hospital stocks surged following the revision of CGHS rates,” market experts added.

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