Business
Slow recovery of low income households slowed down India’s economic recovery
The slow economic recovery of the low income households post Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in the overall economic recovery of the country, said Kotak Securities Ltd.
In a research report, Kotak Securities said, post Covid-19 pandemic, India’s economic recovery seems to be lukewarm on a three-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) basis.
The major economic parameters reveal slow post-pandemic recovery, with gross domestic product (GDP), goods and services tax (GST) collections, electricity demand, credit growth and auto sales growing somewhat slowly as against the expectations.
Kotak Securities attribute the weaker-than-expected recovery to the slow ‘repair’ in the income of low-income households.
“It may take a few more quarters for growth to recover to full potential,” the report said.
India’s 1QFY23 GDP grew at 1.3 per cent CAGR over the past three years, despite growing 13.5 per cent year-on-year (YoY).
According to the report, the survey-based employment data suggests that India has not completely recouped all the jobs lost during the pandemic.
“While formal job creation has been robust, the employment conditions remain frail in the lower-income groups, as employment-seeking under MNREGA is yet to reach pre-pandemic levels,” the report said.
It may take a few more quarters for employment and income to recover to pre-pandemic levels.
The six month GST collections in FY23 logged a growth of 13.8 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis.
The high wholesale price index (WPI) in the last couple of years may have helped higher GST collections in this period. The expectation is that the WPI will sharply trend lower over the next several months.
Collections have grown at a higher pace than nominal GDP growth rate (9.5 per cent on a three-year CAGR), suggesting some widening of the tax base.
On the industrial growth front, India’s indicators look rosy on a yoy basis but lose their sheen when examined on a three-year CAGR basis.
In particular, diesel consumption in 5MFY23 declined by 0.4 per cent and electricity demand grew at 4.7 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis.
Meanwhile, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) has seen a muted 2.2 per cent CAGR over the past three years, despite strong government and household investment.
Household investment in real estate was a key driver, seeing a 14 per cent three-year CAGR in major cities, while the Central government capex increased at 23 per cent three-year CAGR. As such, industrial production and private-sector investment are yet to show a meaningful recovery.
Private consumption has not seen much of a recovery, with private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) growing at 3.2 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis, Kotak Securities said.
The shallowness of the recovery is prominent in the automobile sector, especially in two wheelers as their sales volumes have declined at six per cent CAGR over the past three years (5MFY23 over 5MFY20), while hatchback (entry segment) volumes have increased at 3.2 per cent CAGR in the same period.
Air passenger traffic has also not seen a complete recovery in 5MFY23.
“We note that retail credit growth has been resilient at 15.3 per c ent CAGR, but not enough to pick up the slack in overall bank credit growth,” Kotak Securities said.
Business
Nifty, Sensex rally for 2nd week over strong Q2 earnings, domestic inflows

Mumbai, Nov 29: The Indian equity benchmarks made marginal gains for the third consecutive week, supported by positive global cues, robust domestic inflows and strong Q2 earnings.
Benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex edged higher 0.34 and 0.52 per cent this week to close at 26,202 and 85,706, respectively.
Analysts said that global cues remained supportive, aided by softer US yields, renewed expectations of a Fed rate cut, and benign crude prices that helped temper inflation concerns.
Broader indices underperformed, with the Nifty Midcap100 and Smallcap100 ending the week down 0.11 per cent and 0.10 per cent respectively.
Gains during the week were led by pharma, PSU banks, media, and IT, while realty, consumer durables, and oil & gas lagged behind.
Indian equities navigated a highly eventful week characterised by alternating phases of volatility, resilience and profit booking, finally closing the week on a positive note.
Nifty reached an intra-day low of 25,842 before bouncing back and making a high of 26,310 on the last day of trading week.
Bharat K Gala, President, Technical Head, Ventura, said that key corrective zones traders should watch out for is the support zone at 25,851–25,566. A breach of this level can take the index to 25,337 and further to 25,107–24,780 zone.
Domestically, the stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP print, driven by resilient manufacturing, solid construction activity, and healthy private consumption, is set to support sentiment in the near term, market watchers said.
With robust GDP momentum and improving credit growth providing a solid backdrop for earnings acceleration in H2, the medium-term outlook remains positive, they added.
Investors look for cues next week from a critical lineup of macro data, including India and US PMI releases, US core PCE inflation and the RBI’s policy decision.
Business
India in talks with 50 nations on fair trade deals: Piyush Goyal

New Delhi, Nov 28: Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said on Friday that India is currently engaged in discussions on fair and balanced trade deals with 14 countries or groups representing nearly 50 nations, including the United States, the European Union, GCC countries, New Zealand, Israel, Eurasia, Canada, South Africa and the Mercosur group.
Addressing the annual general meeting of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) here, the minister underlined that balanced and equitable trade agreements have already been concluded with Australia, the UAE, Mauritius, the United Kingdom and the four-nation EFTA bloc.
Highlighting broader global developments, the minister said that recent geopolitical and economic challenges have underscored the need for trusted partners and resilient supply chains. He stated that India’s expanding network of free trade agreements (FTAs) and economic partnerships is aimed at building long-term cooperation anchored in fairness, transparency and mutual benefit.
Goyal said that the idea of self-reliance is central in India’s civilisational ethos, recalling references from the Bhagavad Gita and Mahatma Gandhi’s emphasis on Swadeshi. He said that self-reliance has historically guided India’s progress and continues to remain central to the country’s economic strategy. He added that this vision has been strengthened through the focus on Atmanirbhar Bharat under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Referring to the recent EFTA agreement, the minister noted that the bloc has committed to invest $100 billion in India across innovation and precision manufacturing. He underscored India’s cost competitiveness in research and innovation, stating that high-quality innovation undertaken in India can be achieved at a fraction of the cost compared to Europe or the United States.
The Minister highlighted India’s strengths in innovation and technology, supported by a young demographic, increasing digital adoption and a growing talent pool. He said that India’s large number of STEM graduates and widespread internet access create strong potential in emerging areas such as applied artificial intelligence, automation, robotics and deep-tech innovation.
He noted that the recently announced $12 billion Research, Development and Innovation (RDI) fund, along with ongoing support to startups and deep-tech industries, will further accelerate India’s innovation ecosystem.
Goyal emphasised the importance of strengthening skilling to prepare India’s youth for future opportunities. He said that unlike many developed economies facing ageing populations, India’s youthful demographic is quick to adapt to emerging technologies and has already demonstrated high engagement with digital platforms. He added that this readiness positions India to play a major role in the global technology landscape.
The minister outlined India’s strengths through the ‘PESTLE’ framework, noting that Prime Minister Modi has consistently advanced the vision of self-reliance across sectors. He said that politically, a stable and predictable government committed to “Minimum Government, Maximum Governance” has enhanced investor confidence. In the economic domain, initiatives such as the National Manufacturing Mission and the Rs 25,000 crore Export Promotion Mission are supporting India’s rise towards becoming the world’s third-largest economy.
On the social front, he highlighted that the four Labour Codes ensure better wages and protections, while the Antyodaya approach has supported the fulfilment of basic needs.
In the technology sector, Goyal pointed to initiatives aimed at reducing external dependence, including the Semiconductor Mission (Rs 76,000 crore) and the Rs 7,000 crore programme for permanent magnet production, which strengthen domestic manufacturing and supply chain security. In the legal domain, he referred to ongoing reforms, including progress toward Jan Vishwas 3.0, designed to enhance ease of doing business.
He further noted that the ‘Atomic Energy Bill 2025’ marks a historic shift by opening up the nuclear sector to strengthen energy sovereignty.
The Minister urged FICCI to adopt a mission-driven approach to promoting innovation, deepening research and development, strengthening industry-academia linkages and supporting India’s journey towards becoming a developed nation by 2047.
Business
India projected to log 7 pc GDP growth in 2025: Report

New Delhi, Nov 28: Ahead of India’s Q2 GDP numbers on Friday, Moody’s Ratings said that the country is projected to clock 7 per cent GDP growth in 2025 and 6.4 per cent in 2026 due to domestic growth and economic resilience amid global disruptions.
The country will lead growth among emerging markets and in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region, said the global rating agency. “India will lead growth among emerging markets and across the region, with GDP growing 7 per cent in 2025 and 6.4 per cent in 2026,” according to a note by Moody’s Ratings.
The average GDP growth in APAC is projected to remain steady at 3.4 per cent in 2026, compared to expected growth of 3.6 per cent in 2025.
According to the rating agency, emerging markets will drive GDP growth in the region, with average growth of 5.6 per cent.
In September, Moody’s Ratings affirmed India’s long-term local and foreign-currency issuer ratings and the local-currency senior unsecured rating at Baa3. The global ratings agency has also maintained its outlook for India as stable.
“The rating affirmation and stable outlook reflect our view that India’s prevailing credit strengths, including its large, fast-growing economy, sound external position and stable domestic financing base for ongoing fiscal deficits, will be sustained,” Moody’s said in its note.
The rating agency has said that the US’ imposition of high tariffs on India will have limited negative effects on India’s economic growth in the near term. “However, it may constrain potential growth over the medium to long term by hindering India’s ambitions to develop a higher value-added export manufacturing sector,” said the rating agency.
India’s credit strength is balanced by long-standing weaknesses on the fiscal side which will remain. Strong GDP growth and gradual fiscal consolidation will lead to an only very gradual decline in the government’s high debt burden, and will not be sufficient to materially improve weak debt affordability, especially as recent fiscal measures to reinforce private consumption erode the government’s revenue base, according to the note.
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