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Slow recovery of low income households slowed down India’s economic recovery

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The slow economic recovery of the low income households post Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in the overall economic recovery of the country, said Kotak Securities Ltd.

In a research report, Kotak Securities said, post Covid-19 pandemic, India’s economic recovery seems to be lukewarm on a three-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) basis.

The major economic parameters reveal slow post-pandemic recovery, with gross domestic product (GDP), goods and services tax (GST) collections, electricity demand, credit growth and auto sales growing somewhat slowly as against the expectations.

Kotak Securities attribute the weaker-than-expected recovery to the slow ‘repair’ in the income of low-income households.

“It may take a few more quarters for growth to recover to full potential,” the report said.

India’s 1QFY23 GDP grew at 1.3 per cent CAGR over the past three years, despite growing 13.5 per cent year-on-year (YoY).

According to the report, the survey-based employment data suggests that India has not completely recouped all the jobs lost during the pandemic.

“While formal job creation has been robust, the employment conditions remain frail in the lower-income groups, as employment-seeking under MNREGA is yet to reach pre-pandemic levels,” the report said.

It may take a few more quarters for employment and income to recover to pre-pandemic levels.

The six month GST collections in FY23 logged a growth of 13.8 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis.

The high wholesale price index (WPI) in the last couple of years may have helped higher GST collections in this period. The expectation is that the WPI will sharply trend lower over the next several months.

Collections have grown at a higher pace than nominal GDP growth rate (9.5 per cent on a three-year CAGR), suggesting some widening of the tax base.

On the industrial growth front, India’s indicators look rosy on a yoy basis but lose their sheen when examined on a three-year CAGR basis.

In particular, diesel consumption in 5MFY23 declined by 0.4 per cent and electricity demand grew at 4.7 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis.

Meanwhile, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) has seen a muted 2.2 per cent CAGR over the past three years, despite strong government and household investment.

Household investment in real estate was a key driver, seeing a 14 per cent three-year CAGR in major cities, while the Central government capex increased at 23 per cent three-year CAGR. As such, industrial production and private-sector investment are yet to show a meaningful recovery.

Private consumption has not seen much of a recovery, with private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) growing at 3.2 per cent on a three-year CAGR basis, Kotak Securities said.

The shallowness of the recovery is prominent in the automobile sector, especially in two wheelers as their sales volumes have declined at six per cent CAGR over the past three years (5MFY23 over 5MFY20), while hatchback (entry segment) volumes have increased at 3.2 per cent CAGR in the same period.

Air passenger traffic has also not seen a complete recovery in 5MFY23.

“We note that retail credit growth has been resilient at 15.3 per c ent CAGR, but not enough to pick up the slack in overall bank credit growth,” Kotak Securities said.

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Cong flags sharp rupee decline in Rajya Sabha, warns of widespread economic strain

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New Delhi, Dec 4: During Zero Hour in the Rajya Sabha on Thursday, Congress MP from Madhya Pradesh Vivek Tankha voiced deep concern over what he described as the “freefall of the Indian rupee” and the widening economic distress affecting ordinary citizens across the country.

Calling the issue “extremely topical and urgent”, Tankha said the currency’s sharp decline was inflicting widespread financial strain on households, businesses and key sectors of the economy.

Tankha noted that the rupee had crashed past Rs 90 per US dollar — touching between 90.14 and 90.19 — marking the weakest level in India’s history. Over the past five years, he said, the rupee has lost between 20 per cent and 27 per cent of its value, effectively reducing the purchasing power of people’s income by nearly one fourth. In global terms, the rupee has fallen 5 per cent this year alone, its steepest drop since 2022, making it one of Asia’s worst-performing currencies in 2025.

He further highlighted that India recently recorded a monthly trade deficit exceeding USD 40 billion, underscoring how sharply imports outweigh exports. At the same time, foreign investors have withdrawn more than USD 17 billion from Indian markets this year — the largest outflow in several years — drying up capital and weakening investor sentiment.

“FDI flows are stagnant, external borrowings have slowed, and the world is becoming increasingly wary of India’s external stability,” Tankha warned.

Emphasising the direct impact on citizens, he said that every bout of rupee depreciation makes imports costlier, and India relies heavily on imported fuel, cooking gas, electronic machinery and medicines. A 5 per cent fall in the rupee, he explained, pushes inflation up by 30-35 basis points.

“Every household ends up paying more. Food prices rise, transport costs increase, and a chain reaction follows that hits the poor the hardest,” he said.

The middle class, he added, is also feeling the squeeze as the prices of smartphones, laptops, medical equipment, school supplies, clothing and household appliances rise due to India’s dependence on imported components.

“For the common person, a falling rupee feels like a salary cut without the employer informing you. Your money buys less every day,” he remarked.

Tankha also drew attention to the pressure on Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), many of which rely on imported raw materials. These businesses are facing a 20-30 per cent rise in input costs, shrinking already thin margins.

Machinery imports have become more expensive, slowing expansion and putting jobs at risk. Exporters, he said, are not gaining from the weaker rupee because major export sectors — such as textiles, chemicals and engineering goods — depend heavily on imported intermediaries.

“Small manufacturers are caught in a double blow: higher costs and weaker demand,” he said.

Companies with foreign currency loans are also struggling, with repayment costs rising by 15-20 per cent due to the rupee’s depreciation, weakening corporate balance sheets and threatening financial stability.

A falling rupee, Tankha added, discourages overseas investors, creating a “vicious cycle” where declining confidence further accelerates currency pressure. “As the rupee falls, investors pull out, and markets shift,” he cautioned.

Tankha urged the government to recognise the seriousness of the situation and take urgent corrective measures to stabilise the currency and safeguard vulnerable sectors of the economy.

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Sensex, Nifty open lower amid weak global cues

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Mumbai, Dec 4: Indian stock markets opened weak on Thursday as pressure from a falling rupee and continued foreign investor selling kept sentiment muted on Dalal Street.

The opening also coincided with the weekly F&O expiry for the Sensex, adding to the cautious mood among traders.

The rupee hit a fresh record low of 90.56 against the US dollar in early trade, worsening concerns about capital outflows.

The sustained depreciation has been fuelled by steady foreign investor selling, firm demand for the dollar, and lingering uncertainty surrounding India’s trade negotiations with the US.

Against this backdrop, the benchmark Sensex began the day at 84,958, down 148 points or 0.17 per cent. The Nifty opened at 25,953, slipping 33 points or 0.13 per cent.

Most heavyweight stocks on the Sensex traded lower in the morning session. HUL, Titan, Eternal, ICICI Bank, Power Grid, Trent, Ultratech Cement, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Motors PV, NTPC, Bajaj Finance, and HDFC Bank were among the major laggards.

Only a handful of large-cap counters managed to stay in the green. IT majors TCS, HCL Tech, Infosys, and Tech Mahindra led the gainers’ list, supported by a stronger dollar. Asian Paints and Bharti Airtel also opened with mild gains.

In the broader market, sentiment was mixed. The Nifty MidCap index edged up 0.17 per cent, showing some resilience, while the Nifty SmallCap index slipped 0.07 per cent.

Market participants said the recent pressure on equities is closely linked to the rupee’s sharp fall. After breaching the 90-per-dollar mark on Wednesday, the currency’s slide has become a key worry for investors, raising concerns over imported inflation and higher costs for companies dependent on overseas supplies.

With global cues still uncertain and the domestic currency under strain, traders expect markets to remain volatile through the day, according to experts.

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India-AI Impact Summit 2026 to generate actionable recommendations: Minister

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New Delhi, Dec 3: Reflecting India’s growing role in global AI discussions, the country will host the India-AI Impact Summit 2026 here from February 16–20, the government said on Wednesday.

For the first time, the global AI summit series will take place in the Global South and the shift signals a broader move toward a more inclusive global AI dialogue, said Union Minister of State for Electronics and IT, Jitin Prasada, in Lok Sabha.

“In line with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision, the government is democratising the development and usage of technology. The focus is using Artificial Intelligence (AI) for solving real-world problems and ultimately improving lives across various sectors,” said the minister.

In this regard, the government has taken an inclusive and innovation-friendly approach to AI governance. India’s AI strategy has been formed after studying legal frameworks around the world and extensive consultation with stakeholders. A key pillar of India’s AI strategy is its balanced and pragmatic techno-legal approach to regulation.

The summit reflects India’s growing role in global AI discussions. It follows the UK AI Safety Summit, AI Seoul Summit, Paris AI Action Summit (which India co-chaired), and the Global AI Summit on Africa.

This demonstrates that the Summit is situated within a broader global discourse and seeks to contribute to harmonised international cooperation on responsible AI development, said the minister.

The thematic priorities of the Summit, referred to as the seven ‘Chakras’, underline its key objectives. These include Human Capital, Inclusion, Safe and Trusted AI, Resilience, Innovation and Efficiency, Democratizing AI Resources, and AI for Economic Development and Social Good.

These thematic areas encompass issues such as AI safety, data governance, transparency, human-centred development and accountability frameworks. These discussions are aligned to drive the strategic direction of the Summit’s events and deliberations.

The Summit is intended to generate actionable recommendations that contribute to long-term AI governance objectives rather than framing immediate binding regulations.

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