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Several women candidates emerge favourites for CEA’s position

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Woman power may make a strong statement in next years Union Budget as the economic policy recommendations may come from Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman at the top, ably guided by a first-ever woman Chief Economic Advisor (CEA).

The process of selection of the new CEA, which is underway now, has participation from more women this year with a strong chance that the country for the first time may have a dual combination of a woman FM and CEA guiding the Budget making process for 2022-23.

Sources said that three names are being bandied about in the corridors of power. These include Dr Pami Dua, Professor at Delhi School of Economics; Poonam Gupta, Director General of the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) and Gita Gopinath, chief economist at the IMF, who vacates her office in January 2022 making her available for assignment in India.

The government has invited applications for the post of CEA which will fall vacant next month (December 7) as present incumbent K V Subramanian completes his three-year tenure. Subramanian has said that he will be leaving the finance ministry to return to academia following the completion of his tenure.

Sources said that though the applications invited from the Department of Economic Affairs are valid till next week, some of the candidates already identified by it may get preference and it is here that the chances of getting the first woman CEA get stronger. Sources also said that the current Principal Economic Advisor Sanjeev Sanyal may emerge as the dark horse for the position as he has been with the government for some time and is aligned to its thinking that would hold the key to framing next year’s Economic Survey.

With regard to women candidates, Dr Pami Dua was picked by the Modi government in 2016 as the first woman member of the RBI’s all powerful Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) for four years. Poonam Gupta, on the other hand, was the RBI Chair Professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy and was recently appointed as one of the seven members of the reconstituted Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM).

The name of Gita Gopinath, 50, is also doing the rounds over her strong India connections and talks on pandemic economics where India’s role has been lauded. The only drawback in her candidature comes from her holding US citizenship.

In these circumstances, sources said that Sanyal could be the right candidate. But as the budget is already round the corner, there is also thinking that the government delay the release of the Economic Survey 2021-22, till the appointment of the CEA is completed and the person is able to oversee the survey. However, this would mean that Budget announcements may come without a survey, an unprecedented event.

The process of appointing the CEA involves vetting of candidates by a search committee which will then shortlist at least three candidates whose names will go for approval before the Appointments Committee of the Cabinet headed by the Prime Minister.

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Silver hits record high above $52.50 as safe-haven demand fuel rally

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Mumbai, Oct 14: Silver prices soared to an all-time high above $52.50 an ounce on Tuesday, boosted by a historic short squeeze in London and strong demand for safe-haven assets amid global economic uncertainty.

Spot silver rose as much as 0.4 per cent to $52.58 an ounce in London, breaking the previous record set in January 1980 when the billionaire Hunt brothers tried to corner the market.

Gold prices also climbed to a new record, marking eight consecutive weeks of gains, supported by rising geopolitical tensions and expectations of US interest rate cuts.

The rally in silver comes amid concerns over liquidity in the London market, which has triggered a worldwide rush to secure the metal.

Prices in London are trading at a rare premium compared to New York, prompting traders to fly silver bars across the Atlantic — a costly move usually reserved for gold — to benefit from higher prices.

The premium stood at around $1.55 an ounce on Tuesday, down from $3 last week.

Adding to the squeeze, silver lease rates in London — the cost of borrowing the metal — surged above 30 per cent for one-month contracts last Friday, making it expensive for traders to maintain short positions.

The situation worsened as strong demand from India in recent weeks further reduced available supply, following earlier shipments to New York amid fears of US tariffs.

Experts said the latest surge in both gold and silver reflects heightened market uncertainty.

Gold prices have jumped nearly 60 per cent this year, crossing the $4,100 mark for the first time, supported by geopolitical tensions, rate-cut expectations, and strong buying by central banks and investors.

Key US economic data such as inflation and retail sales are due later this week, but analysts warn that if the government shutdown continues, the release of these reports — including jobs data — could be delayed.

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Indian stock markets open higher amid global trade concerns, Q2 earnings buzz

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Mumbai, Oct 14: Indian stock markets opened higher on Tuesday as investors looked past global uncertainties caused by the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, while also tracking quarterly earnings from Indian companies.

The Sensex began the day at 82,562, gaining 235 points or 0.29 per cent. Similarly, the Nifty opened at 25,283, up 55 points or 0.22 per cent.

Among the top performers on the Sensex were HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, Infosys, Bharat Electronics, Bajaj Finserv, Ultratech Cement, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Larsen & Toubro, which rose up to 1.3 per cent.

On the other hand, stocks like Eicher Motors, Maruti Suzuki, Axis Bank, Sun Pharma, State Bank of India, Bajaj Finance, and Bharti Airtel witnessed early losses.

In the broader market, both the Nifty MidCap and Nifty SmallCap indices were trading in the green, rising 0.37 per cent and 0.38 per cent, respectively.

Among sectoral indices, the Nifty Metal index led the gains with a 1 per cent rise, supported by positive momentum in metal stocks.

Meanwhile, the Nifty Pharma index was the biggest laggard, slipping 0.37 per cent.

As per the experts, IT stocks, particularly the largecaps, are viewed as overvalued by the market since they are facing many headwinds and some strong structural issues.

“On the other hand PSU stocks have been trading at very low valuations despite decent growth and robust balance sheets. This anomaly in valuations have been corrected by the market. This trend is likely to continue,” market experts said.

‘However, in growth stocks like digital companies and renewable energy, their long-term growth potential will continue to attract investment despite high valuations,” they added.

With Muhurat trading approaching, there is room for a mild rally, according to analysts.

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India’s CPI inflation declines to 8-year low of 1.54 pc in September

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New Delhi, Oct 13: India’s inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined to an over 8-year low of 1.54 per cent in September this year, compared to the same month of the previous year, as prices of food items and fuels turned cheaper during the month, according to figures released by the Ministry of Statistics on Monday.

This is the lowest year-on-year inflation after June 2017, and is also lower than the inflation rate of 2.05 per cent for August.

Food inflation continued in the negative zone for the fourth consecutive month and was recorded at -2.28 per cent during September, the figures showed.

“The decline in headline inflation and food inflation during September is mainly attributed to a favourable base effect and the decline in inflation of vegetables, edible oils, fruits, pulses, cereals and egg. Besides, fuels also turned cheaper during the month,” the official statement said.

The inflation outlook for 2025-26 has become more benign due to large favourable base effects combined with the good southwest monsoon, healthy kharif sowing, adequate reservoir levels and comfortable buffer stocks of foodgrains. The GST rate cuts, which kicked in on September 22, are bringing down prices across goods which will result in reducing inflation further in the coming months.

The decline in the inflation rate gives the RBI more headroom to continue with a soft money policy by cutting interest rates and injecting more money into the economy to spur growth.

The RBI’s monetary policy committee (MPC) on October 1 slashed its forecast for India’s inflation rate for the financial year 2025-26 to 2.6 per cent from 3.1 per cent in August primarily on account of the GST rate cuts and benign food prices.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said, “The recently implemented GST rate rationalisation would lead to a reduction in prices of several items in the CPI basket. Overall, the inflation outcome is likely to be softer than what was projected in the August monetary policy committee resolution, primarily on account of the GST rate cuts and benign food prices.”

Addressing journalists after the MPC meeting, Malhotra said that the “overall inflation outlook has turned even more benign in the last few months.”

The RBI Governor pointed out that headline CPI inflation declined to its eight-year low of 1.6 per cent year-on-year in July 2025 before rising to 2.1 per cent in August – its first increase after nine months. Benign inflation conditions during 2025-26 so far have been primarily driven by a sharp decline in food inflation from its peak of October 2024.

Inflation within the fuel group moved in a narrow range of 2.4-2.7 per cent during June-August. Core inflation remained largely contained at 4.2 per cent in August. Excluding precious metals, core inflation was at 3.0 per cent in August.

The RBI Governor further stated that the current macroeconomic conditions and the outlook has opened up policy space for further supporting growth.

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