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India on high alert as Imran Khan rumours push Pakistan towards chaos: ISI eyes major diversionary strike

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New Delhi, Nov 28: Indian Intelligence agencies have alerted the security forces to remain in a state of very high alert in the wake of the developments unfolding in Pakistan. Trouble is brewing in Pakistan in the wake of rumours relating to the death of former Prime Minister, Imran Khan.

Huge crowds are mobilising outside the Adiala Jail in Rawalpindi, where Khan is lodged. Thousands of PTI supporters have gathered outside the jail demanding that they meet with their leader.

The Pakistan Army, however has refused permission for a meeting with Khan, while also dismissing rumours about his death.

Intelligence Bureau officials say that rumours relating to the death of Khan began to circulate three days back. Since then there has been a massive build up of his supporters. If the Army does not provide proof that Khan’s supporters have been seeking, then violence is bound to engulf Pakistan.

An official said that violence is imminent in Pakistan given the current situation. For India, the spillover is the concern and trouble in the neighbourhood is never a good sign for national security.

An Intelligence Bureau official said that the ISI is already planning a series of major attacks in India, so that attention is diverted. Khan remains a very popular figure in Pakistan and if news about his death is true, then the country would witness violence of a very unprecedented nature.

It would be beyond the control of the security forces in Pakistan to control the people and eventually the country could face a civil war like situation. The Army wants to keep Imran Khan down and all issues relating to him under wraps.

However, it may not be able to sustain this for long as the people are getting anxious and are seeking answers. The ratings of the establishment in Pakistan, especially with Field Marshal Asim Munir at the helm has hit an all time low.

An official said that the people are being stopped by force and the Army does realise that a majority of the population wants the current dispensation out.

Pakistan watchers say that the people are particularly upset that the Army engineered a coup to take Khan out of power and install a dummy government under Shehbaz Sharif. There is no respect for a democratically-elected process and the people have being voicing their disgruntlement against this, experts add.

Indian officials say that the rumours relating to Khan’s death was something that the establishment did not expect. This has put the Army on the back foot. If one looks at the build up of supporters, it is massive and the Army would not be able to contain them by using force.

Officials say that the Pakistan Army would look to buy time so that it would be able to handle the situation. In order to buy time, the Army and ISI would plot attacks in India so that this would act as a diversion for sometime.

The chatter that has been picked up suggests a sense of urgency to carry out a spectacular strike in India. The ISI is not planning some small attack. It wants one on the scale of a Mumbai 26/11 or Pulwama so that the attention and focus of the Pakistan people is completely diverted, another official said.

Intelligence agencies have alerted security officials to keep a watch particularly on the eastern border. There is a lot of ISI related activity that is on in Bangladesh. Several modules have come up in collaboration between the Lashkar-e-Tayiba and Harkat-ul-Jihadi-Islami (HuJI) with the sole intention of carrying out attacks in India.

Pakistan is also planning to fly in Hafiz Saeed to Bangladesh so that he could give the members of this module a pep talks. Officials say that Saeed is always roped in to give the terrorists of his modules a pep talk just before a major attack is launched.

This was found to be the case prior to the Mumbai 26/11 attacks. Officials say that given the current situation in Pakistan, the ISI is desperate to create a diversion.

With the borders with Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab becoming harder to operate, the focus is on the modules of Bangladesh to carry out a major attack in India, officials add. Officials also add that such a diversion would give the Pakistan Army time to handle the situation relating to Imran Khan, which in turn would calm the people.

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Pakistan, Bangladesh face mounting economic risks as prolonged US-Iran conflict fuels oil price surge

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New Delhi, Aug 2: Pakistan and Bangladesh are among the Asian economies most exposed to the fallout from the prolonged US-Iran conflict, as surging global oil prices threaten to push up inflation, strain public finances and intensify pressure on already fragile economies, according to economists and research firms.

Both countries depend heavily on imported fuel, making them particularly vulnerable to sustained increases in crude oil and diesel prices, according to a report by South China Morning Post.

Analysts warn that limited fuel inventories and weak economic buffers could allow higher global energy costs to feed quickly into domestic prices, raising the cost of transport, electricity and food for millions of households, the report said.

Jamus Lim, Associate Professor of Economics at ESSEC Business School Asia-Pacific cited by the report, said Pakistan and Bangladesh are likely to face significant inflationary pressures in the near term.

He noted that limited inventory buffers mean the impact of higher oil prices would be transmitted relatively quickly through their economies.

Oil markets have already reflected growing concerns over the conflict. Brent crude has climbed sharply over the past month, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has recorded similar gains.

Diesel and other refined fuel products have also posted double-digit increases, adding to concerns over rising energy costs worldwide.

The risks have extended beyond the Gulf region after a drone strike targeted gas vessels at Egypt’s Mediterranean port of Damietta, heightening concerns over shipping routes linked to the Suez Canal, one of the key pathways for Saudi oil exports.

For Pakistan and Bangladesh, another energy-price shock could place renewed pressure on currencies, fiscal balances and government subsidy programmes.

Both countries are implementing International Monetary Fund (IMF)-supported economic reform programmes that emphasise fiscal discipline, limiting their ability to cushion consumers from higher fuel prices through subsidies.

The conflict, now in its fifth month, has added to uncertainty after US President Donald Trump weighed further military action following Iranian attacks on American military assets in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain.

Oxford Economics has warned that several emerging markets, including Pakistan, Egypt, Mozambique, Nigeria and Kenya, face a combination of geopolitical risks, political uncertainty and rising debt-servicing costs.

According to the research firm, countries such as Pakistan, Mozambique, Kenya, Ghana and Tunisia, which have relatively thin foreign exchange reserve buffers, could experience the sharpest deterioration if the conflict intensifies.

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Iranian FM warns US against ‘adventurous’ actions

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Tehran, Aug 2: Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi warned the United States against taking any “adventurous” actions, saying those responsible would bear the consequences, according to Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency.

Araghchi made the remarks during separate phone conversations with Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, during which they exchanged views on the latest regional developments, Mehr said in a report.

Araghchi told Munir and Fidan that Iran was fully prepared to safeguard its national sovereignty, territorial integrity and national security, and would respond decisively to any act of aggression, reports Xinhua news agency.

In talks with his Saudi counterpart, Araghchi warned that any hostile US or Israeli action, as well as any regional support for it, would draw a firm, proportionate response from Iran’s armed forces, it added.

Also on Saturday, Iran’s Foreign Ministry accused the United States of violating the peace memorandum of understanding they reached mid-June, citing its continued strikes on Iranian targets, blockade on Iranian ports and commercial shipping, and stepped-up economic pressure.

In a statement, the ministry vowed to continue to resist US “unlawful aggression” and to firmly defend its national dignity and independence.

The remarks followed renewed exchanges of airstrikes between the United States and Iran after days of pause.

Before the pause, the United States had launched multiple waves of strikes against Iranian targets, saying they were in response to Iranian attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and aimed at “degrading Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping.”

Earlier, Araghchi has warned Britain against any military cooperation with the United States in carrying out strikes on Iran.

Araghchi made the remarks during a phone call with British Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband on Friday, stressing that any cooperation with “aggressors,” including under the pretext of existing defense agreements, would be “unacceptable,” according to a statement issued by the Iranian Foreign Ministry on Saturday.

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Death toll from Japan’s Kumamoto earthquake rises to 38

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Tokyo, Aug 2: The death toll from a powerful earthquake that struck Japan’s Kumamoto Prefecture has risen to 38, the prefectural government said Sunday.

At a disaster response headquarters meeting held Sunday morning, Kumamoto Prefecture Government officials announced that 38 people had died, including those whose deaths are still being investigated to determine whether they were caused by the magnitude 7.1 tremor, Xinhua news agency reported.

At a Nippon Paper factory in Yatsushiro City, where the earthquake caused a smokestack to collapse, rescue teams pulled 10 people from the site. Eight of them were confirmed dead, while two sustained injuries. Another person who had been missing was found in the rubble shortly after noon on Thursday, though the individual’s condition has not yet been disclosed.

At Aeon Mall Kumamoto in Kashima Town, where a large explosion occurred after the earthquake, 12 people have been rescued. Seven of them were confirmed dead, and five were injured. Police and firefighters are continuing search operations to determine whether anyone else remains trapped inside the building.

More than 9,400 people are currently staying at 406 evacuation shelters across the prefecture, officials said.

The earthquake has also left approximately 79,700 households without water. Local authorities said there is currently no timetable for restoring water service in any of the affected municipalities.

Meanwhile, around 19,000 households remained without electricity as of Thursday afternoon. According to Kyushu Electric Power, power is expected to be restored by Friday evening if repair work proceeds as planned.

On Wednesday, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi held the Second Extraordinary Disaster Countermeasures Headquarters Meeting for the Kumamoto earthquake. Kumamoto Prefecture Governor Kimura, as well as Deputy Minister Tsushima of the Cabinet Office, attended the meeting virtually.

Takaichi offered condolences to the victims and expressed sympathies with the bereaved families. She assured that the Japanese government is working swiftly to assess the damage caused by the earthquake, while relevant ministries and agencies are working to address initial responses.

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