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Rupee hits new all-time low as dollar index rises to 20-year high

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The Indian rupee has depreciated to the record low since the morning trade after the dollar index surged to 20-year high and 75 basis points rate hike by the US Fed, and hint at more rate hikes in the future.

Rupee’s previous record low against the greenback was 80.12 reached late in August.

At the interbank foreign exchange market at 12.30 p.m., rupee was trading at 80.71 against the dollar, which was sharply lower than its previous close.

“With the US Fed increasing rates by 75 bps and hinting at more rate hikes in the future, we believe the dollar index can see a significant increase, implying that most major market currencies, including INR should be under pressure. If we start seeing INR depreciating, then from a USD returns perspective for FPIs, India becomes unattractive,” said Naveen Kulkarni, Chief Investment Officer, Axis Securities PMS.

The US dollar index hit a fresh 20-year high on Thursday after the US Fed warned about aggressive rate hikes in the future. The dollar index jumped to 111.530 on Thursday during the afternoon trade.

The local currency as well as dollar index also got hurt due to escalating geopolitical tensions after Russia ordered a partial mobilisation of military forces in Ukraine.

Kulkarni also added that we could also witness a reversal of FPI flows in the near to medium term, which will increase market volatility. Higher interest rates in the US will force major central banks, including India, to increase interest rates to stem the pressure on their domestic currencies and with increased interest rates and cost of capital, market multiples can contract. We believe in the near term, Indian equity markets can witness increased volatility.

Kunal Sodhani, Vice President, Global Trading Center, Shinhan Bank in a note said that considering the technical charts DXY can test 112.50, EURUSD can test 0.9720/50 levels, GBPUSD can test 1.1180 levels, USDJPY can test 145.20 levels.

“For USDINR, 79.60 acts as a good base while a break of all-time high of 80.13 on a closing basis, can open doors for 80.50 levels as a lot of option sellers may trigger stop losses,” Sodhani added.

After the rate hike by the US Fed, overseas stocks tumbled which was followed by domestic equities. At 12.30 p.m., Sensex was down 608.78 points or 1.02 per cent at 58,848.00 and Nifty was 165.75 points or 0.94 per cent at 17,532.95.

Business

Growth of bank deposits slowed down in FY2022

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The growth of bank deposits across the market have slowed down to 10 per cent year-on-year (YoY) as per the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) data, said Kotak Securities Ltd in a report.

According to the report, there is a perceptible slowdown in the bank deposit growth in metropolitan, semi-urban and rural India with household savings being relatively weak.

Further the bank branch expansion has slowed down mainly by the public sector banks.

The report said private banks continue to gain market share but their dominance is much more in urban markets as compared to rural and semi-urban markets.

The current account, savings account (CASA) deposits has slowed although the ratio has moved up higher to approximately 45 per cent led by higher savings ratio in recent years.

The private banks have increased their market share in current account and in the corporate segment while public banks have been losing share steadily in the household and government sectors, Kotak Securities said.

As per the report, the duration of term deposits continues to fall, especially post Covid and the share of non-individuals is quite high at 45 per cent of the overall term deposits.

Given the nature of deposits where non-individuals have a higher share in term deposits, the duration of these deposits has declined but it raises concern as it is likely to be sensitive as interest rate reverses, Kotak Securities said.

The growth of CASA deposits is at a much faster pace than term deposits partly driven by slower demand for deposits as loan growth has been slow or probably due to excess savings during the Covid period.

“As loan growth recovers, we are likely to see a greater push towards mobilising deposits, which implies that the competition would shift from CASA deposits to term,” Kotak Securities said.

The trend to save through CASA deposits is much higher post demonetization and has accelerated during Covid as well. Trends are showing a sign of reversal as the growth rate has started to slow across regions and banks.

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5G-ready car sales cross 500K first time ever globally

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The connected car penetration surpassed that of non-connected cars for the first time ever globally, capturing almost 50.5 per cent share in the second quarter (Q2) this year.

5G-ready car sales surpassed half a million, though 4G accounted for 90 per cent of connected car sales.

According to Counterpoint Research, the US overtook China to lead the global connected car market and the top five automakers were Volkswagen, Toyota, GM, Stellantis and Hyundai.

The US, China and Europe accounted for nearly 80 per cent of connected car sales in the quarter.

“The US market trailed China in terms of connected car sales in the first quarter of this year. However, with the resurgence of Covid-19 and plant shutdowns in China from March onwards, the US overtook China,” said senior analyst Soumen Mandal.

According to the report, automakers are focusing on using powerful on-board computers for next-generation connected mobility.

“4G cars still dominate the global connected car market, capturing 90 per cent of shipments in Q2 2022, whereas 5G cars accounted for around 7 per cent. Although 5G’s share will continue to increase, 4G will see increased sales on a yearly basis until 2027,” said Research Vice-President Peter Richardson.

Non-connected cars have been steadily declining as automakers prefer to upgrade their portfolio with factory-fitted embedded connectivity even in base model variants.

Luxury brands like BMW, Mercedes and Audi were the first to introduce connected cars with inbuilt Wi-Fi, even before the initial push towards connected vehicles came from government mandates like eCall.

According to the report, there are several factors hindering the proliferation of 5G for cars, such as high prices of 5G NAD/TCU, and patchy network coverage even where 5G has been launched which, in turn, means limited availability of 5G capable cars.

Furthermore, there is only nascent adoption of ADAS/AD levels. Currently, there are few Level 3 capable models and all use 4G.

“We expect that mass adoption of 5G connectivity will only occur after 2025, when most of these issues will have been resolved,a said Richardson.

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Rupee slips down against dollar on oil price increase

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Rising international oil prices saw the Indian rupee depreciating to Rs 81.94 against the US dollar.

The rupee opened at Rs 81.52 on Thursday at the interbank forex market and then went down to Rs 81.94.

Experts said demand for dollars from oil importers resulted in a fall in rupee.

The oil prices are expected to climb up as the producing nations have announced their plans to cut production.

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