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Risk-reward for India steel far inferior to a year ago: Jefferies

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Foreign brokerage Jefferies has downgraded Indian steel stocks and said it finds risk-reward for the country’s steel far inferior to a year ago.

“After a very positive stance on the Indian metal sector since September 2020, we believe it’s time to turn cautious on steel,” Jefferies said.

“We believe margins for Indian steel companies have peaked and will fall sharply by FY23, although still settle above the last 10-year average. We cut FY23 EPS for TATA/JSW Steel by 18 per cent/26 per cent — first big cut in more than a year, and we are 23 per cent/22 per cent below street.

“After a big rise in FY21-22E, we see EPS falling 44 per cent/21 per cent YoY for TATA/JSW Steel in FY23. We assume FY23 Indian steel price of Rs 58,000 (6 per cent cut, 9 per cent below spot) and coking coal price of $230/t (36 per cent below spot).

After a year-long rally, global steel and aluminium prices have softened on weak macro and demand concerns in China.

China PMI is bottoming and policy could ease, but there is still risk of muted Chinese growth given the significance of property sector to metal demand, Jefferies said.

The backdrop for metals is better than the last decade as decarbonization in China should limit exports. However, unlike early-2021, the case for big rally in metal prices is behind and steel earnings are starting to see big cuts.

Chinese demand and supply post CNY is key where visibility is low. We find risk-reward for India steel far inferior to a year ago, Jefferies added.

Jefferies said Chinese demand is structurally shifting from urbanization and industrial development to new economy infra such as renewables and EVs. This should drive a shift from steel and coal to copper, aluminium and other ‘energy transition’ metals.

“We find Novelis also well-placed for the global shift to aluminium from steel in autos, and from plastics and glass in beverage cans. For 2022, Jefferies is most bullish on copper and aluminium,” it said.

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Early indications of FIIs turning towards Indian stock markets amid AI upheavals

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There are early indications of foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turning towards India markets amid the AI stock upheavals globally, analysts said on Sunday.

They said it is too early to say that this is a trend reversal, but early signs are positive. During the last four trading days ending on October 30, FIIs were buyers in three days in the cash market.

There are many factors that might have triggered this change in stance.

“One, the US Fed holding rates are a positive for equity markets globally. Second, the valuations in Indian markets, particularly in large caps, have become very attractive. Three, perhaps this is more important, there are clear indications of sustained momentum in economic growth in India,” said Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Ltd.

The surge in credit growth is impressive and indicative of robust growth ahead. Credit grew by 19.1 per cent in September (year-on-year). Credit growth to industry is at 19.5 per cent, and services are at 28.3 per cent.

There are signs of improvement in industrial capex, too. Another factor is the weakening of the AI trade globally. This change in stance of FPIs helped Nifty reclaim the 23,000 level, said the analyst.

Even while selling in large-cap financials, FIIs have been systematically accumulating stocks in pharmaceuticals and healthcare and select digital platform companies.

FIIs have net-sold $59 billion worth Indian equities in the 24 months leading up to September (about $64 billion with October 2026 month-to-date), and rolling 12-month outflows hit a record $40 billion in June 2026.

“FIIs return when oil breaks, and flows then confirm. The US midterms (November 3) and the Iran path decide when,” according to a note by JM Financial Institutional Securities.

FIIs sold a net $14.9 billion in FY25, $21.9 billion in FY26 and $17.7 billion with October 2026 month-to-date. Before this, FIIs had never sold for more than two straight years.

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CTI to launch poster campaign in 20 markets around Delhi’s Ramlila Maidan; urges INDIA Bloc to cancel rally

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With Diwali approaching, some Delhi traders have expressed concern over the proposed rally at Ramlila Maidan, with the Chamber of Trade and Industry (CTI) on Saturday launching a massive poster campaign urging that business activities in major markets should not be disrupted during the peak festive season and urging the INDIA Bloc to cancel its ‘Chalo Delhi’ rally.

The CTI, an apex body representing traders and entrepreneurs in Delhi, appealed to Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, saying that traders’ businesses also run on mutual trust, love and affection with their customers.

“You often say that you run shops of love in the market of hatred. Our shops also run on the basis of mutual trust, love and affection with our customers. Therefore, we humbly request you not to sacrifice our shops of love and business for a rally during the peak season of India’s biggest festival, Diwali,” the CTI said.

CTI has announced that starting on Saturday, these posters will be put up in 20 major wholesale markets within a 5-km radius of Ramlila Maidan.

CTI Chairman Brijesh Goyal said the poster campaign was intended to highlight the concerns of traders whose businesses could be affected by traffic restrictions and congestion around the rally venue.

“You talked about opening ‘shops of love’ during the Bharat Jodo Yatra, but in Delhi, our 300-year-old shops of love are being closed because of the rally,” Goyal said.

He cited businesses ranging from the famous parantha shops of Chandni Chowk and spice traders of Khari Baoli to bangle and bindi sellers in Sadar Bazaar, lehenga shops in Chandni Chowk and other traditional establishments.

“Each shop supports the families of 10 to 20 people,” he added.

The CTI said it would put up posters in major wholesale markets located within a five-km radius of Ramlila Maidan.

These include Chandni Chowk, Sadar Bazaar, Khari Baoli, Bhagirath Palace, Naya Bazaar, Chawri Bazaar, Kashmiri Gate, Daryaganj, Connaught Place, Karol Bagh, Nabi Karim, Paharganj, Ajmeri Gate, Lahori Gate, Janpath, Palika Bazaar, Ballimaran and Kinari Bazaar.

According to the traders’ body, a large gathering at Ramlila Maidan could lead to traffic congestion and restrictions in the surrounding markets.

Goyal said the proposed rally, scheduled just days before Dhanteras, could affect festive business activities.

He expressed concern that the arrival of a large number of people and around 20,000 vehicles could result in traffic jams across central Delhi and disrupt commercial activity.

The CTI claimed that the festive business of 2 million traders and the livelihoods of 7.5 million people dependent on these markets could be affected if restrictions were imposed during the peak Diwali shopping period.

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Axis Trustee warns contempt proceeding against Yes Bank over AT1 bonds

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Axis Trustee Services Limited, the trustee for the Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds issued by Yes Bank, called upon the private sector lender to reinstate the bonds and take necessary corporate actions within three days, failing which the former would initiate contempt proceedings in Supreme Court against the bank.

The trustee said in a filing that non-compliance will constitute “wilful disobedience by the lender of the Supreme Court’s October 15 judgment”.

Yes Bank said it had responded to the trustee, acknowledging the Supreme Court judgment and reiterating that it was fully committed to acting in accordance with the ruling and applicable law, according to an exchange filing.

The Bank replied to the Trustee that it is cognisant of the matters and is examining the SC Judgment and its implications in detail.

“The Bank will take all such steps and measures as are necessary and permissible under applicable law,” Yes Bank said.

“Should the Bank fail to comply with the said judgment as called upon above within the stipulated period, we shall be constrained to initiate proceedings for contempt before the SC, against the Bank and its directors and officers responsible for compliance with the said judgment, without any further notice, entirely at the Bank’s risk as to costs and consequences,” Axis Trustee said in its letter to Yes Bank.

Bank has merely stated that it is “examining the judgment in detail, including evaluating all available options and suitable actions or steps going forward,” the trustee said, adding that under the guise of evaluating its options, the bank should not withhold compliance with the said judgment.

Yes Bank rejected the allegation in its response letter, clarifying that it had not wilfully disobeyed the court.

“The Bank does not accept the characterisation in your Letter of its conduct as wilful disobedience and the assertions in your Letter are baseless and without merit,” it said.

The Supreme Court had, on October 15, upheld the Bombay High Court’s decision to set aside Yes Bank’s Rs 8,415 crore AT1 bond write-off carried out in March 2020. It ruled that the bank’s administrator had acted outside its authority and the applicable regulatory framework.

Axis Trustee challenged the decision of the then administrator of Yes Bank to write down the AT1 bonds in March 2020 before the Bombay High Court.

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