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Risk-reward for India steel far inferior to a year ago: Jefferies

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Foreign brokerage Jefferies has downgraded Indian steel stocks and said it finds risk-reward for the country’s steel far inferior to a year ago.

“After a very positive stance on the Indian metal sector since September 2020, we believe it’s time to turn cautious on steel,” Jefferies said.

“We believe margins for Indian steel companies have peaked and will fall sharply by FY23, although still settle above the last 10-year average. We cut FY23 EPS for TATA/JSW Steel by 18 per cent/26 per cent — first big cut in more than a year, and we are 23 per cent/22 per cent below street.

“After a big rise in FY21-22E, we see EPS falling 44 per cent/21 per cent YoY for TATA/JSW Steel in FY23. We assume FY23 Indian steel price of Rs 58,000 (6 per cent cut, 9 per cent below spot) and coking coal price of $230/t (36 per cent below spot).

After a year-long rally, global steel and aluminium prices have softened on weak macro and demand concerns in China.

China PMI is bottoming and policy could ease, but there is still risk of muted Chinese growth given the significance of property sector to metal demand, Jefferies said.

The backdrop for metals is better than the last decade as decarbonization in China should limit exports. However, unlike early-2021, the case for big rally in metal prices is behind and steel earnings are starting to see big cuts.

Chinese demand and supply post CNY is key where visibility is low. We find risk-reward for India steel far inferior to a year ago, Jefferies added.

Jefferies said Chinese demand is structurally shifting from urbanization and industrial development to new economy infra such as renewables and EVs. This should drive a shift from steel and coal to copper, aluminium and other ‘energy transition’ metals.

“We find Novelis also well-placed for the global shift to aluminium from steel in autos, and from plastics and glass in beverage cans. For 2022, Jefferies is most bullish on copper and aluminium,” it said.

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Gold, silver gain up to 2 pc amid optimism over West Asia peace talks

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Mumbai, June 12: Gold and silver prices traded higher on Friday, with precious metals surging by up to 2 per cent amid hopes of a peace deal in the ongoing West Asia conflict.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (August) increased as much as 1.11 per cent or Rs 1,668 to hit an intraday high of Rs 1,50,600 as of around 11:30 am.

The yellow metal was trading at Rs 1,49,916, up 0.66 per cent or Rs 948. It touched an intraday low of Rs 1,49,569, a gain of 0.42 per cent or Rs 637 from the previous close.

Meanwhile, silver futures (July) traded at Rs 2,42,143, higher by Rs 2,490 or 1 per cent.

The white metal touched an intraday high of Rs 2,44,817, jumping 2.15 per cent during the session so far. It recorded an intraday low of Rs 2,41,601, up 0.81 per cent or Rs 1,948 from the previous close.

Earlier in the day, gold and silver began the session at Rs 1,50,595 and Rs 2,42,776, respectively, on the commodity exchange.

According to commodity market experts, bullion remained under pressure overall and was headed for a second consecutive weekly decline as persistent inflation concerns and growing expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate hike continued to weigh on sentiment.

Analysts said precious metals rebounded sharply from six-month lows after US President Donald Trump indicated that the US and Iran could reach a peace agreement as early as this weekend.

However, gains remained limited amid continued uncertainty over the negotiations, with Iranian officials denying that a final agreement had been reached, according to them.

Optimism around a potential diplomatic breakthrough eased concerns over global energy supplies, triggering a decline in crude oil prices and improving broader market risk appetite, experts added.

Market participants will now track developments in US-Iran negotiations and upcoming commentary from the Federal Reserve for further direction in precious metal prices.

In international markets, COMEX silver traded at $66.94, up more than 4 per cent, while COMEX gold rose over 2 per cent to $4,203.70 per ounce.

Meanwhile, crude oil prices declined sharply, with US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude falling roughly 3 per cent to $85 per barrel. International benchmark Brent crude declined 1.59 per cent to $88.94 per barrel.

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Business

Gold, silver prices fall up to 2 pc amid West Asia tensions

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Mumbai, June 11: Gold and silver prices traded lower on Thursday, with precious metals falling by up to 2 per cent amid escalating tensions in the West Asia conflict.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (August) declined as much as 1 per cent or Rs 1,573 to hit an intraday low of Rs 1,46,444 as of around 12 pm.

The yellow metal was trading at Rs 1,47,860, down 0.11 per cent or Rs 157. It touched an intraday high of Rs 1,48,089, up 0.04 per cent or Rs 72 from the previous close.

On the other hand, silver futures (July) were trading at Rs 2,34,500, down Rs 1,005 or 0.43 per cent.

The white metal touched an intraday low of Rs 2,30,493, declining 2.12 per cent during the session so far. It recorded an intraday high of Rs 2,35,402, down 0.04 per cent or Rs 103 from the previous close.

Earlier in the day, gold and silver opened at Rs 1,46,518 and Rs 2,31,671, respectively, on the MCX.

In international markets, precious metals also remained under pressure. COMEX silver was trading at $63.90, down over 1.29 per cent, while COMEX gold was trading 0.68 per cent lower at $4,105.30 per ounce.

According to commodity analysts, precious metals remained under pressure as investors assessed the latest developments in the West Asia conflict. Gold stabilised near multi-month lows after the US military confirmed the completion of its latest strikes on Iran, raising expectations that diplomatic negotiations could resume.

They said easing safe-haven demand, coupled with expectations that US interest rates could remain higher for longer, weighed on bullion prices. Higher interest rates reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.

Market participants also continued to monitor inflationary pressures stemming from rising energy prices and their potential impact on the US Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Meanwhile, crude oil prices surged sharply, with Brent crude rising over 2 per cent to trade near $95 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 4 per cent to $93.64 per barrel.

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Indian markets trade higher despite West Asia tensions

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Mumbai, June 10: Domestic equity markets traded higher on Wednesday in the morning session despite elevated geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil prices.

Sensex gained as much as 0.59 per cent or over 400 points to touch an intraday high of 74,356 in early trade, while the Nifty rose 0.46 per cent or about 100 points to 23,351.

Sectoral performance was largely positive, with FMCG stocks leading the gains. Nifty FMCG rose 1.5 per cent, followed by Nifty Chemicals (0.67 per cent), Nifty Oil & Gas (0.60 per cent) and Nifty Private Bank (0.50 per cent).

On the downside, metal stocks remained under pressure, with Nifty Metal declining more than 1 per cent. Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom fell 0.62 per cent, while Auto, Media and PSU Bank indices traded marginally lower.

Among the Nifty 50 constituents, Hindalco Industries emerged as the top loser, shedding nearly 3 per cent. Eternal, Adani Enterprises, NTPC and Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV) were among the other major laggards.

“While weak global cues and geopolitical tensions could keep markets volatile in the near term, technical indicators suggest signs of stabilisation after recent selling pressure. Nifty has strong support around 23,000-23,100, while 23,500-23,600 remains the immediate resistance zone. A decisive breakout on either side is likely to determine the market’s next directional move,” analysts said.

Investors and traders’ sentiment remained cautious amid escalating tensions in West Asia after the United States launched strikes on Iran, raising concerns about a broader regional conflict and its potential impact on global energy supplies.

On the commodities front, international benchmark Brent crude rose 0.75 per cent to around $93 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 0.88 per cent to nearly $90 per barrel.

In Asia, markets traded largely in the red. Japan’s Nikkei and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined more than 1 per cent each, while South Korea’s KOSPI plunged nearly 4 per cent.

Overnight, Wall Street ended lower, with the S&P 500 slipping 0.26 per cent and the Nasdaq Composite declining 0.97 per cent.

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