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Real GDP to grow at around 9.5% in FY22: SBI Ecowrap

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GDP

India’s real GDP is expected to grow at around 9.5 per cent in 2021-22 on a year-on-year (YoY), an SBI Ecowrap report said on Saturday.

The report comes a day after the National Statistical Office (NSO) released the First Advance Estimates of National Income for financial year 2021-22.

Accordingly, the estimates had said that India’s economy is expected to clock a growth of 9.2 per cent in terms of real GDP for FY22.

The NSO data had indicated that Real GDP’ or ‘GDP at Constant Prices’ (2011-12) in the year 2021-22 rose to Rs 147.54 lakh crore from Rs 135.13 lakh crore, the ‘Provisional Estimate of GDP’ for the year 2020-21.

The Ecowrap report said: “We believe that NSO’s estimate is on the conservative side, as the calculated GDP growth for H2FY22 for construction comes at (-) 0.9 per centa Services is at a mere 2 per cent for H2FY22.

“We still believe that real GDP will grow at around 9.5 per cent in FY22. Meanwhile, this estimate however has a shelf-life of only two months and is only used as an input for budget arithmetic.”

Besides, the report said that the NSO will release the first revised estimate of FY19, FY20 and FY21 on 31 Jan’21.

“We believe that for FY22 the figures would be revised again in February’21 and May’21.”

As per the report, going forward, even if the rising Covid infections could impact mobility, yet economic activity is not expected to get affected much.

“Cases have been rising significantly in India as well as across the globe. However, studies so far reveal that the current Omicron variant is less severe than the Delta variant. Data also substantiates this fact,” the report said.

“While number of new cases increased from 1.3 crore in October’21 to almost double to 2.5 crore in December’21 the number of deaths remained constant (just 2,200 more deaths occurred in Dec as compared to Oct).”

In addition, the report said that taking into account the revised GDP figures, “even if we consider the additional spending announced by the government in early Dec’21 fiscal deficit of the government still comes at Rs 15.88 lakh crore or 6.8 per cent of the GDP”.

“For FY23, the fiscal consolidation should remain limited to 30-40 bps from the current fiscal.”

Business

Gold, silver tumble as hopes of December Fed Rate cut fade

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Mumbai, Nov 18: Gold and silver prices dropped sharply in the domestic futures market on Tuesday morning as hopes of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in December faded and concerns over US tariffs eased.

This reduced the appeal of safe-haven assets like bullion. At early trade, MCX Gold December futures were trading 1.19 per cent lower at Rs 1,21,466 per 10 grams.

MCX Silver December contracts also declined 1.65 per cent to Rs 1,52,750 per kg.

“Gold has support at $4000-3965 while resistance at $4075-4110. Silver has support at $49.70-49.45 while resistance is at $50.75-51.10,” market watchers said.

“In INR gold has support at Rs1,22,350-1,21,780 while resistance at Rs1,23,750-1,24,500. Silver has support at Rs1,53,850-1,52,100 while resistance at Rs1,56,540, 1,57,280,” they added.

Internationally, gold prices slipped for the fourth straight session on Tuesday.

A stronger US dollar and weakening expectations of a rate cut next month continued to weigh on the metal.

The dollar index rose to 99.59, making gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Gold, which is priced in US dollars, becomes costlier when the greenback strengthens, resulting in reduced demand.

The recent US government shutdown, which lasted a record 43 days, had delayed the release of important economic data, creating uncertainty about the condition of the world’s largest economy.

With the shutdown now over, attention has shifted to key data releases expected this week, including the September nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday.

These numbers will play a major role in shaping expectations around the US Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates.

Meanwhile, Fed officials continue to send mixed signals on the future path of monetary policy, adding further uncertainty to the market.

With no major positive fundamental triggers in recent days, bulls remain hesitant—especially with both metals still trading at historically high levels.

“Traders now await a fresh round of US economic data later this week. Meanwhile, a firmer US Dollar Index and slightly higher 10-year Treasury yields added pressure to precious metals,” analysts said.

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Business

Sensex, Nifty open lower on weak global cues

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Mumbai, Nov 18: Indian stock markets opened lower on Tuesday as weak global cues weighed on investor sentiment. Both benchmark indices slipped 0.2 per cent at the opening bell.

The Sensex dropped 195 points to trade at 84,756 in early deals, while the Nifty fell 64 points to 25,949. Most heavyweight stocks were under pressure, dragging the indices down.

“Immediate resistance now lies at 26,100, followed by 26,150, while the 25,850–25,900 band is likely to offer meaningful support and serve as an accumulation zone for positional traders,” market experts said.

“These levels will remain crucial as the index navigates early weakness,” experts noted.

Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech, Sun Pharma and Titan were among the major laggards, declining between 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent.

However, a few stocks managed to stay in positive territory. Bharat Electronics, Bharti Airtel, Axis Bank, Eternal and State Bank of India were the only gainers on the Sensex, rising up to 0.5 per cent.

Broader markets also opened weak, with the Nifty MidCap index slipping 0.25 per cent and the Nifty SmallCap index falling 0.40 per cent.

Among sectoral indices, Nifty PSU Bank was the only one to trade higher, gaining 0.25 per cent. On the other hand, Nifty Realty and Nifty Metal dropped 0.8 per cent each, while the Nifty IT index fell 0.5 per cent.

The Bank Nifty mirrored the broader market’s resilience, reflecting renewed buying momentum.

“Strong support is identified at 58,600, and a breakdown below this mark may trigger a modest decline toward 58,800,” market watchers mentioned.

“On the upside, resistance at 59,100 remains a key barrier, and a sustained breakout above this level may open the path toward 59,300, indicating potential continuation of the bullish trend,” experts stated.

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Business

Indian PSU oil companies secure ‘historic’ deal to import 2.2 MTPA LPG from US: Puri

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New Delhi, Nov 17: In a key development, Indian public sector oil companies have finalised a deal for imports of around 2.2 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) LPG for the contract year 2026, to be sourced from the US Gulf Coast, Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said on Monday.

In a post on X social media platform, he said that in a historic first, “one of the largest and the world’s fastest growing LPG market opens up to the United States”.

“In our endeavour to provide secure affordable supplies of LPG to the people of India, we have been diversifying our LPG sourcing,” the minister said.

“In a significant development, Indian PSU oil companies have successfully concluded a 1-year-deal for imports of around 2.2 MTPA LPG, close to 10 per cent of our annual imports – for the contract year 2026, to be sourced from the US Gulf Coast – the first structured contract of US LPG for the Indian market,” Puri informed.

This purchase is based on using Mount Belvieu as the benchmark for LPG purchases and “a team of our officials from Indian Oil, BPCL and HPCl had visited the US and engaged in discussions with major US producers over the last few months, which have been concluded now”.

Under the leadership of PM Modi, PSU oil companies have been providing LPG at the lowest global prices to all our mothers and sisters.

“Even as global prices soared by over 60 per cent last year, PM Modi ensured that our Ujjwala consumers continued to receive LPG cylinder at just Rs 500-550 whereas the actual cost of the cylinder was over Rs 1,100,” said the minister,

The Government of India incurred the cost of over Rs 40,000 crore last year “in order to ensure our mothers and sisters did not feel the burden of rising international LPG prices”, he mentioned.

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