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RBI may raise policy rates by 75 bps cumulatively in next 2 reviews: SBI Research

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 SBI Research expects the central bank, Reserve Bank of India (RBI), to raise key policy rates both in its June and August policy meeting by a cumulative 75 basis points.

Beyond August, rate actions might be more balanced and judicious and the terminal repo rate is expected to be at 5.15-5.25 per cent by FY23, it said.

This is tantamount to saying that the RBI should not increase the repo rate by more than 1.25 per cent for an incremental negative contribution to kick in.

Retail inflation surged to 7.79 per cent on yearly basis in April 2022, as compared to 6.95 per cent in March 2022, mainly on account of food price inflation.

Inflation prints are now likely to stay higher than 7 per cent till September, the SBI Research said in a report.

“Beyond September, inflation prints could hover between 6.5-7.0 per cent. Our FY23 inflation forecast is at 6.5 per cent, taking into account the possibility of an extended food price shock,” it said.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has significantly impacted the trajectory of inflation.

The latest April inflation print shows wheat, protein items (chicken in particular), milk, lemon, cooked meal, chillies, refined oil, potato, chillies, kerosene, firewood, gold and LPG are contributing to overall inflation in a substantive manner.

Interestingly, inflation in protein items like chicken, mustard oil etc, softened in April.

However this might be an aberration, given that April was the month of Navratri and other religious festivals, it added.

Surprisingly, the contribution of petrol and diesel in overall inflation has been declining steadily since October 2021, while there is a steady increase in the weighted contribution of kerosene and firewood in headline inflation.

The significant increase in weighted contribution of kerosene perhaps reflects the impact of high fuel costs in rural areas. This does not augur well for rural demand.

“The weighted contribution of LPG has also increased, reversing a downward trend. This however, may be attributed to commercial usage of LPG.”

Besides, the report said the RBI may increase the CRR rate by another 100 bps, after raising it by 50 basis points recently.

The RBI can give back to the market at least 3/4th of the Rs 2.6 lakh crore absorbed through the CRR hike, or Rs 1.95 lakh crore, in some form to address duration supply.

It would lower the market borrowing to around Rs 12.36 lakh crore for FY23 compared to the Budget estimate of Rs 14.3 lakh crore, the report added.

Further, SBI research added that the fall of the rupee to new lows, with spiking volatility breaching the psychological levels of 77 augurs the uneasy situation, reflective of the turbulence in broader markets globally, and the limited choices before the central bank in managing the exchange rate, even with seemingly comfortable levels of forex reserves close to $600 billion.

“We don’t expect the rupee to breach the levels of 80 and instead show an appreciative bias over time,” it said.

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Sensex, Nifty post moderate losses over Middle East conflict

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Mumbai, March 11: The Indian equity markets posted moderate losses in early trade on Wednesday over cautious sentiment amid the ongoing war between US-Israel and Iran, leading to the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

As of 9.25 am, Sensex lost 109 points, or 0.14 per cent, to reach 78,096 and Nifty eased 26 points, or 0.11 per cent to reach 24,234.

Main broad-cap indices showed divergence with the benchmark indices, as the Nifty Midcap 100 gained 0.72 per cent, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 added 0.85 per cent.

All sectoral indices traded in green except Nifty FMCG, financial services and private banks. Private banks led the losses down 0.73 per cent. Nifty media, metal and consumer durables were among the top gainers, up 1.52 per cent, 1.58 per cent and 1.25 per cent, respectively.

Near-term resistance for Nifty is placed at 24370-24416 area, while strong support spans the 23700-24080 zone, analysts said.

Derivatives data from yesterday’s session showed that foreign investors and proprietary traders remained positive, while retail investors went bearish, they added.

Resistance for Bank Nifty is seen near 57,200–57,300 zone, while support is located in the 56,600–56,700 zone, market participants said.

Sectorally, auto, financials, and consumer-oriented stocks led the recovery in the previous session, while some pressure was seen in select IT and oil & gas counters. Broader markets also remained firm, with midcap and small-cap stocks outperforming the frontline indices, reflecting selective buying interest across sectors.

On Wednesday, markets remained unsettled over fading hopes for an early end to the US-Israeli war on Iran and stagflation concerns compounded by US President Donald Trump’s threat of retaliations following reports of Iran mining the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices which had earlier this week touched $120 a barrel, dropped below 90-mark over reports of a group of countries planning to tap emergency crude reserves to mitigate disruption caused by the conflict.

International Brent crude was down 0.44 per cent at $87.39 per barrel early on Wednesday.

In Asian markets, China’s Shanghai advanced 0.05 per cent, and Shenzhen added 0.85 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei moved up 2.48 per cent, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index surged 0.33 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi gained 3.41 per cent.

The US markets ended mixed overnight as Nasdaq added 0.01 per cent. The S&P 500 lost 0.21 per cent, and the Dow Jones declined 0.07 per cent.

On March 10, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold equities worth Rs 4,685 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 6,250 crore.

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Sensex, Nifty fall nearly 2 pc amid US-Iran war

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Mumbai, March 9: Indian stock markets ended sharply lower on Monday as rising geopolitical tensions linked to the ongoing US-Iran war weighed on investor sentiment.

Although the indices recovered partially from the day’s lows after crude oil prices eased.

The Nifty settled at 24,028.05, down 422.40 points or 1.73 per cent. The index also officially entered the technical correction zone after falling more than 10 per cent from its record high of 26,373, which it had touched on January 5.

The Sensex ended the day at 77,566.16, falling 1,352.74 points or 1.71 per cent.

Despite the sharp fall, both indices managed to recover from their intra-day lows as oil prices softened during the session.

The Nifty rebounded about 160 points from its day’s low of 23,868.05, while the Sensex recovered nearly 1,142 points from the intra-day low of 76,424.55.

Commenting on Nifty technical outlook, experts said that the immediate support is placed around 23,700–23,600, and a decisive breakdown below this level could extend the decline toward the 23,400–23,300 zone.

“On the upside, immediate resistance is seen around 24,300 (gap area), followed by a stronger hurdle near 24,600, which needs to be reclaimed to signal any meaningful recovery,” an analyst stated.

Market participants remained cautious amid uncertainty surrounding the conflict between the United States and Iran, which has increased volatility in global financial markets and energy prices.

Broader markets performed worse than the benchmark indices during the session. The Nifty MidCap Index ended 1.97 per cent lower, while the Nifty SmallCap Index declined 2.22 per cent.

Among sectoral indices, the Nifty PSU Bank Index was the worst performer, falling 3.97 per cent as selling pressure intensified in public sector banking stocks.

On the other hand, the Nifty IT Index showed relative resilience and managed to close slightly higher, gaining 0.08 per cent to end at 30,162.05.

Analysts said markets remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and movements in crude oil prices, which could continue to influence investor sentiment in the near term.

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Oil prices jump past $100 as Iran conflict shakes markets

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Washington, March 9: Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel as the conflict involving Iran disrupted energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz and rattled global markets.

US President Donald Trump defended the spike. He said higher oil prices were a temporary cost tied to confronting Iran’s nuclear threat.

“Short-term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

“ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!”

Crude oil prices almost touched $110 per barrel after major Middle East producers reduced output while the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed due to the Iran conflict, CNBC reported Sunday.

West Texas Intermediate crude jumped about 20.75 per cent, or $18.83, to $109.75 per barrel. Brent crude rose more than 18 per cent to about $109.48 per barrel, according to the report.

The jump marks one of the biggest weekly gains in oil futures trading since the early 1980s, it said.

The rally reflects fears that the Strait of Hormuz could remain disrupted. The narrow waterway is one of the world’s most critical oil routes. A large share of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments moves through the Strait.

The Wall Street Journal reported that tanker traffic through the Strait slowed sharply as ships avoided the region after threats and attacks linked to the conflict.

Gulf producers have begun cutting output. Storage tanks are filling up. Without export routes, some producers are shutting wells or slowing production.

Financial markets reacted quickly.

Stocks in Asia dropped sharply when trading opened. Japan’s benchmark index fell about five per cent. South Korea’s market dropped more than seven per cent, The New York Times reported. Both economies depend heavily on imported oil and gas.

Analysts warn that prices could rise further if the conflict drags on. Market forecasts cited by financial trackers suggest crude could reach $143 per barrel by the end of the year.

Energy historian Daniel Yergin told The Wall Street Journal the situation could become “by far the biggest disruption in world history in terms of daily oil production.”

The conflict is also disrupting global trade routes. The Washington Post reported that missile and drone attacks in the region have slowed commercial shipping and damaged trade corridors between Asia, Europe and the Middle East.

Economists say Asia and Europe could face stronger economic pressure than the United States. Both regions rely heavily on imported energy moving through the Persian Gulf.

The United States may be somewhat protected because of its large domestic oil production and growing energy exports. Still, higher global oil prices can affect American consumers. Rising fuel costs often lead to higher transport and food prices.

Oil shocks in the Persian Gulf have triggered major economic crises before. The 1973 Arab oil embargo and the 1979 Iranian revolution both caused dramatic price spikes and global recessions.

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