Connect with us
Wednesday,31-December-2025
Breaking News

Business

RBI may raise policy rates by 75 bps cumulatively in next 2 reviews: SBI Research

Published

on

 SBI Research expects the central bank, Reserve Bank of India (RBI), to raise key policy rates both in its June and August policy meeting by a cumulative 75 basis points.

Beyond August, rate actions might be more balanced and judicious and the terminal repo rate is expected to be at 5.15-5.25 per cent by FY23, it said.

This is tantamount to saying that the RBI should not increase the repo rate by more than 1.25 per cent for an incremental negative contribution to kick in.

Retail inflation surged to 7.79 per cent on yearly basis in April 2022, as compared to 6.95 per cent in March 2022, mainly on account of food price inflation.

Inflation prints are now likely to stay higher than 7 per cent till September, the SBI Research said in a report.

“Beyond September, inflation prints could hover between 6.5-7.0 per cent. Our FY23 inflation forecast is at 6.5 per cent, taking into account the possibility of an extended food price shock,” it said.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has significantly impacted the trajectory of inflation.

The latest April inflation print shows wheat, protein items (chicken in particular), milk, lemon, cooked meal, chillies, refined oil, potato, chillies, kerosene, firewood, gold and LPG are contributing to overall inflation in a substantive manner.

Interestingly, inflation in protein items like chicken, mustard oil etc, softened in April.

However this might be an aberration, given that April was the month of Navratri and other religious festivals, it added.

Surprisingly, the contribution of petrol and diesel in overall inflation has been declining steadily since October 2021, while there is a steady increase in the weighted contribution of kerosene and firewood in headline inflation.

The significant increase in weighted contribution of kerosene perhaps reflects the impact of high fuel costs in rural areas. This does not augur well for rural demand.

“The weighted contribution of LPG has also increased, reversing a downward trend. This however, may be attributed to commercial usage of LPG.”

Besides, the report said the RBI may increase the CRR rate by another 100 bps, after raising it by 50 basis points recently.

The RBI can give back to the market at least 3/4th of the Rs 2.6 lakh crore absorbed through the CRR hike, or Rs 1.95 lakh crore, in some form to address duration supply.

It would lower the market borrowing to around Rs 12.36 lakh crore for FY23 compared to the Budget estimate of Rs 14.3 lakh crore, the report added.

Further, SBI research added that the fall of the rupee to new lows, with spiking volatility breaching the psychological levels of 77 augurs the uneasy situation, reflective of the turbulence in broader markets globally, and the limited choices before the central bank in managing the exchange rate, even with seemingly comfortable levels of forex reserves close to $600 billion.

“We don’t expect the rupee to breach the levels of 80 and instead show an appreciative bias over time,” it said.

Business

Sensex, Nifty end flat amid mixed sectoral cues

Published

on

Mumbai, Dec 30: Indian benchmark indices ended Tuesday’s session almost flat, but with a slight negative tone, as gains in PSU banks, metal and auto stocks were offset by selling pressure in IT, FMCG, realty and pharma shares.

The Sensex closed at 84,675.08, slipping 20.46 points or 0.02 per cent, while the Nifty settled marginally lower at 25,938.85, down 3.25 points or 0.01 per cent.

“The Nifty has also slipped below the 21 EMA, reinforcing the short-term downtrend. Immediate support is placed in the 25,850–25,870 zone,” market watchers stated.

“A decisive break below this level could intensify bearish sentiment, while resistance is placed at 26,000,” analysts mentioned.

Markets witnessed a cautious mood as investors balanced sector-specific buying against profit booking in select heavyweights.

On the Sensex, stocks such as Eternal, Infosys, Asian Paints, UltraTech Cement and Bajaj Finance ended among the top losers, weighing on the index.

On the other hand, M&M, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finserv and Axis Bank provided support and closed higher.

The broader market also saw mild weakness. The Nifty Midcap 100 index ended lower by 0.15 per cent, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 declined 0.28 per cent.

Sector-wise, real estate, IT and pharma stocks remained under pressure. The Nifty Realty index fell 0.84 per cent, while the Nifty IT and Pharma indices declined 0.74 per cent and 0.17 per cent, respectively.

In contrast, strong buying was seen in PSU bank, metal and auto stocks. The Nifty PSU Bank index jumped 1.69 per cent, the Nifty Metal index rose 2.03 per cent, and the Nifty Auto index gained 1.08 per cent.

Analysts said that the market ended the day on a flat note as investors preferred selective buying, with sectoral trends driving movement rather than broad-based participation.

“Fresh buying at lower levels, along with short covering in banking, auto, and metal stocks following the expiry of monthly derivative contracts, helped the Nifty recoup most of its intraday losses and close the session largely flat,” market watchers mentioned.

Continue Reading

Business

From labour laws to market reforms, India’s growth story built on credibility and stability: PM Modi

Published

on

New Delhi, Dec 30: Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday said that India’s growth story is being shaped by credibility, stability, and long-term confidence, driven by a series of sustained reforms across sectors ranging from labour laws and trade agreements to logistics, energy, and market reforms.

In a post on X, the Prime Minister referred to Union Minister Hardeep Singh Puri’s write-up on “Reform Express 2025”, which reflects the “quiet but consistent work of governance that has helped clear long-pending bottlenecks week after week”.

PM Modi said these steady reforms are laying a strong foundation for India’s future growth.

“Union Minister Hardeep Singh Puri writes on Reform Express 2025. He reflects on the quiet, cumulative work of governance that cleared bottlenecks week after week,” he said.

“From labour laws and trade agreements to logistics, energy and market reforms, India’s growth story is being built on credibility, stability and long-term confidence,” he added.

In his article, Union Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Puri highlighted how the PM Modi government’s reform push is improving ease of doing business and strengthening investor confidence.

Puri had described “Reform Express 2025” as the cumulative impact of consistent governance, where obstacles are addressed regularly rather than through sudden, disruptive changes.

He had said that in an uncertain global environment marked by political instability, the steady leadership of Narendra Modi stands out.

Puri had pointed out that key steps such as modern labour codes, major trade agreements, the Securities Market Code Bill and the Indian Ports Act 2025 are creating a solid base for long-term economic expansion.

He also said that the SHANTI Bill is a major step towards modernising India’s civil nuclear framework.

According to the minister, these reforms follow a clear pattern of cleaning up outdated laws, decriminalising minor offences, modernising labour compliance, strengthening market oversight, digitising trade processes, improving logistics, and reducing risks in long-term energy investments.

Continue Reading

Business

Sensex, Nifty trade flat amid mixed global cues

Published

on

Mumbai, Dec 29: Indian benchmark indices traded flat with a mild positive bias early on Monday, tracking mixed global cues and subdued year-end participation.

As of 9.30 am, Sensex moved up 40 points, or 0.04 per cent to 85,081 and Nifty gained 14 points, or 0.05 per cent to 26,057.

Main broad-cap indices performed in line with benchmark indices, with the Nifty Midcap 100 advanced 0.14 per cent, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 added 0.18 per cent.

Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel and NTPC were among the major gainers in the Nifty Pack, while losers included Bajaj Finserv, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance and Tata Consumer.

Among sectoral gainers, the Nifty Metal index was the top performer, rising 1.11 per cent, followed by Nifty Auto and Nifty Realty, which gained 0.26 per cent and 0.25 per cent, respectively.

According to analysts, immediate support is placed at 25,850–25,900 zone, while 26,150–26,200 remains a crucial resistance band. Stable crude prices and a relatively steady rupee continue to offer underlying support, preventing sharp downside.

They further said that underperformance of India compared to most developed and emerging markets in 2025 is set to change in 2026 as Indian macros are in the ‘Goldilocks’ zone, with robust economic growth and recovery in earnings from Q3 FY26.

However, these factors are not enough to spark a rally soon, market watchers said. The market needs a US-India trade deal with positive surprises for India to rebound. A consolidation phase is likely in the near term in the absence of such surprises, they added.

Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed in the morning session, as investors kicked off the final trading week of the year.

In Asian markets, China’s Shanghai index advanced 0.31 per cent, and Shenzhen edged up 0.03 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei lost 0.31 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.39 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi added 1.52 per cent.

The US markets ended in the red zone on the last trading day, as Nasdaq lost 0.09 per cent, the S&P 500 eased 0.03 per cent, and the Dow moved down 0.04 per cent.

On December 26, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 317 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 1,772 crore.

Continue Reading

Trending