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RBI may raise policy rates by 75 bps cumulatively in next 2 reviews: SBI Research

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 SBI Research expects the central bank, Reserve Bank of India (RBI), to raise key policy rates both in its June and August policy meeting by a cumulative 75 basis points.

Beyond August, rate actions might be more balanced and judicious and the terminal repo rate is expected to be at 5.15-5.25 per cent by FY23, it said.

This is tantamount to saying that the RBI should not increase the repo rate by more than 1.25 per cent for an incremental negative contribution to kick in.

Retail inflation surged to 7.79 per cent on yearly basis in April 2022, as compared to 6.95 per cent in March 2022, mainly on account of food price inflation.

Inflation prints are now likely to stay higher than 7 per cent till September, the SBI Research said in a report.

“Beyond September, inflation prints could hover between 6.5-7.0 per cent. Our FY23 inflation forecast is at 6.5 per cent, taking into account the possibility of an extended food price shock,” it said.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has significantly impacted the trajectory of inflation.

The latest April inflation print shows wheat, protein items (chicken in particular), milk, lemon, cooked meal, chillies, refined oil, potato, chillies, kerosene, firewood, gold and LPG are contributing to overall inflation in a substantive manner.

Interestingly, inflation in protein items like chicken, mustard oil etc, softened in April.

However this might be an aberration, given that April was the month of Navratri and other religious festivals, it added.

Surprisingly, the contribution of petrol and diesel in overall inflation has been declining steadily since October 2021, while there is a steady increase in the weighted contribution of kerosene and firewood in headline inflation.

The significant increase in weighted contribution of kerosene perhaps reflects the impact of high fuel costs in rural areas. This does not augur well for rural demand.

“The weighted contribution of LPG has also increased, reversing a downward trend. This however, may be attributed to commercial usage of LPG.”

Besides, the report said the RBI may increase the CRR rate by another 100 bps, after raising it by 50 basis points recently.

The RBI can give back to the market at least 3/4th of the Rs 2.6 lakh crore absorbed through the CRR hike, or Rs 1.95 lakh crore, in some form to address duration supply.

It would lower the market borrowing to around Rs 12.36 lakh crore for FY23 compared to the Budget estimate of Rs 14.3 lakh crore, the report added.

Further, SBI research added that the fall of the rupee to new lows, with spiking volatility breaching the psychological levels of 77 augurs the uneasy situation, reflective of the turbulence in broader markets globally, and the limited choices before the central bank in managing the exchange rate, even with seemingly comfortable levels of forex reserves close to $600 billion.

“We don’t expect the rupee to breach the levels of 80 and instead show an appreciative bias over time,” it said.

Maharashtra

Thane Sessions Court Convicts Hawker For Brutal Attack On Civic Officer During 2021 Encroachment Drive

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Thane: The Thane Sessions Court has convicted a hawker for attempting to murder a senior civic officer and against her security personnel during an anti-encroachment drive conducted by the Thane Municipal Corporation (TMC) in 2021.

The accused, Amarjitsingh Shivshankar Yadav, alias Amarjit Yadav, was found guilty under several sections of the Indian Penal Code — including Section 307 (attempt to murder), Section 353 (assault on a public servant), Section 332 (voluntarily causing hurt to deter public servant), Section 333 (causing grievous hurt to deter public servant), and provisions under the Maharashtra Police Act.

About The Incident

The incident took place on August 30, 2021, at the Kasarvadavali junction during a routine anti-hawker and encroachment drive. Kalpita Pimple, Assistant Municipal Commissioner of the TMC’s Majiwada-Manpada ward, was overseeing the operation when Yadav, a hawker at the site, suddenly launched a violent assault on her.

In the unprovoked attack, Pimple suffered severe injuries — including the loss of three fingers and a head injury. A security guard accompanying her also suffered injuries while trying to shield her from the assault.

After a detailed trial, the court held Yadav guilty on all counts, reaffirming the severity of the offence and the need to protect public servants carrying out their lawful duties.

The public prosecutor Shishir Hirey said, “There were two victims in the case, in which Pimple lost three fingers while her security personnel suffered injuries in while trying to prevent the attack.”

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Maharashtra

Kharghar Residents Stage Peaceful Protest Demanding Liquor Ban In Locality

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Navi Mumbai: In a show of unity and resolve, residents of Kharghar gathered today at Shah Arcade, Sector 6, to participate in a sit-in protest demanding a complete ban on liquor outlets in the area.

Organised under the banner of the Liquor-Free Kharghar movement, the protest began at 11:00 AM and witnessed the participation of local citizens, social activists, and community leaders who voiced their concern over the increasing number of liquor shops and their adverse impact on the peace and safety of the neighborhood.

Protesters emphasised that making Kharghar a liquor-free zone is essential to safeguarding the area’s future and ensuring a safe, healthy environment for families and youth.

“Every responsible citizen must stand united to protect Kharghar from the ill effects of alcohol. This movement is not just for today but for the generations to come,” said one of the organizers during the protest.

The peaceful demonstration reflected the community’s collective demand for the authorities to take immediate action and revoke licenses of existing liquor shops to maintain the area’s sanctity and security.

Organisers have urged residents to remain vigilant and continue supporting similar initiatives until their demands are met.

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Business

India’s house price index up 3.1 pc in Q4 FY25, Kolkata leads: RBI

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New Delhi, June 21: The house price index (HPI) across India increased by 3.1 per cent in the January-March period (Q4 FY25), maintaining the same pace as the previous quarter (Q3).

The Reserve Bank released its quarterly HPI data for Q4, based on transaction-level data received from the registration authorities in 10 major cities.

“All-India HPI increased by 3.1 per cent (YoY) in Q4 2024-25 as compared with 3.1 per cent growth in the previous quarter and 4.1 per cent growth a year ago; annual HPI growth varied widely across the cities – ranging from a high growth of 8.8 per cent (Kolkata) to a contraction of 2.3 per cent (Kochi),” according to a RBI statement.

On a sequential basis, all-India HPI increased by 0.9 per cent in Q4.

Bengaluru, Jaipur, Kolkata and Chennai are the major cities recording a sequential rise in house prices during the latest quarter, the data showed.

Kolkata topped the chart with an 8.8 per cent increase, while Kochi was the only city to witness a contraction, recording a decline of 2.3 per cent. The 10 cities covered in the index include Ahmedabad, Bengaluru, Chennai, Delhi, Jaipur, Kanpur, Kochi, Kolkata, Lucknow, and Mumbai.

“House is not just an asset but also a durable consumption good for households, providing shelter and other services. A change in the house price affects the households’ perceived lifetime wealth and hence influences the spending and borrowing decisions of households,” according to Central Bank.

An increase in the house price raises the value of the housing relative to construction costs; hence a new construction is profitable when house price rises above the construction costs.

Residential investment is, therefore, positively related with house price increase. House prices also affect bank lending and vice versa. Further, house price gains increase housing collateral.

The potential two-way link between bank lending and house prices give rise to mutually reinforcing cycles in credit and real estate markets. These indicate that house prices may affect economic activity through private consumption of households, residential investment and credit allocation of the financial systems. Thus, understanding the price trends of this segment of asset class is important for monetary policy formulation.

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