Connect with us
Monday,22-December-2025
Breaking News

Business

RBI may raise policy rates by 75 bps cumulatively in next 2 reviews: SBI Research

Published

on

 SBI Research expects the central bank, Reserve Bank of India (RBI), to raise key policy rates both in its June and August policy meeting by a cumulative 75 basis points.

Beyond August, rate actions might be more balanced and judicious and the terminal repo rate is expected to be at 5.15-5.25 per cent by FY23, it said.

This is tantamount to saying that the RBI should not increase the repo rate by more than 1.25 per cent for an incremental negative contribution to kick in.

Retail inflation surged to 7.79 per cent on yearly basis in April 2022, as compared to 6.95 per cent in March 2022, mainly on account of food price inflation.

Inflation prints are now likely to stay higher than 7 per cent till September, the SBI Research said in a report.

“Beyond September, inflation prints could hover between 6.5-7.0 per cent. Our FY23 inflation forecast is at 6.5 per cent, taking into account the possibility of an extended food price shock,” it said.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has significantly impacted the trajectory of inflation.

The latest April inflation print shows wheat, protein items (chicken in particular), milk, lemon, cooked meal, chillies, refined oil, potato, chillies, kerosene, firewood, gold and LPG are contributing to overall inflation in a substantive manner.

Interestingly, inflation in protein items like chicken, mustard oil etc, softened in April.

However this might be an aberration, given that April was the month of Navratri and other religious festivals, it added.

Surprisingly, the contribution of petrol and diesel in overall inflation has been declining steadily since October 2021, while there is a steady increase in the weighted contribution of kerosene and firewood in headline inflation.

The significant increase in weighted contribution of kerosene perhaps reflects the impact of high fuel costs in rural areas. This does not augur well for rural demand.

“The weighted contribution of LPG has also increased, reversing a downward trend. This however, may be attributed to commercial usage of LPG.”

Besides, the report said the RBI may increase the CRR rate by another 100 bps, after raising it by 50 basis points recently.

The RBI can give back to the market at least 3/4th of the Rs 2.6 lakh crore absorbed through the CRR hike, or Rs 1.95 lakh crore, in some form to address duration supply.

It would lower the market borrowing to around Rs 12.36 lakh crore for FY23 compared to the Budget estimate of Rs 14.3 lakh crore, the report added.

Further, SBI research added that the fall of the rupee to new lows, with spiking volatility breaching the psychological levels of 77 augurs the uneasy situation, reflective of the turbulence in broader markets globally, and the limited choices before the central bank in managing the exchange rate, even with seemingly comfortable levels of forex reserves close to $600 billion.

“We don’t expect the rupee to breach the levels of 80 and instead show an appreciative bias over time,” it said.

Business

India-New Zealand FTA: PM Modi, Luxon aim to double bilateral trade over 5 years

Published

on

New Delhi, Dec 22: Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a telephone conversation with New Zealand’s Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon, on Monday as the two leaders jointly announced the successful conclusion of the historic, ambitious and mutually beneficial India-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (FTA).

During the conversation, both leaders expressed confidence in doubling bilateral trade over the next five years as well as an investment of $20 billion in India from New Zealand over the next 15 years.

The negotiations began in March this year and the two leaders concluded the FTA in a record time of nine months, reflecting the shared ambition and political will to further deepen ties between the two countries, according to a statement from Prime Minister’s Office (PMO).

“The FTA would significantly deepen bilateral economic engagement, enhance market access, promote investment flows, strengthen strategic cooperation between the two countries, and also open up new opportunities for innovators, entrepreneurs, farmers, MSMEs, students and youth of both countries across various sectors,” said the statement.

The leaders also welcomed the progress achieved in other areas of bilateral cooperation such as sports, education, and people-to-people ties, and reaffirmed their commitment towards further strengthening of the India-New Zealand partnership.

This historic FTA eliminates and reduces tariffs on 95 per cent of New Zealand’s exports – among the highest of any Indian FTA – with almost 57 per cent being duty-free from day one, increasing to 82 per cent when fully implemented, with the remaining 13 per cent subject to sharp tariff cuts.

It puts New Zealand exporters on an equal or better footing to our competitors across a range of sectors and opens the door to India’s rapidly expanding middle class, according to an official statement from New Zealand.

“The Indian economy is forecast to grow to NZ$12 trillion by 2030. The India-NZ Free Trade Agreement unleashes huge potential for our world-class exporters to the world’s largest country and will significantly accelerate progress towards New Zealand’s ambitious goal of doubling the value of exports over 10 years,” it added.

Continue Reading

Business

Mumbai-Bound Air India Flight Returns To Delhi Airport Minutes After Take Off Due To Technical Glitch

Published

on

New Delhi: A Mumbai-bound Air India flight AI887 returned to the Delhi Airport minutes after take-off due to a technical issue. The Delhi–Mumbai flight made an emergency landing according to standard operating procedure.

As perv an Air India spokesperson, the aircraft (Boeing 777) landed safely at Delhi, and the passengers and crew disembarked.

The Boeing 777 suffered an engine issue soon after take-off, reported The Times of India. The aircraft reportedly took off at 6.10 am and returned to the airport at 6.52 am. The aircraft is currently undergoing necessary checks.

As per the report, the airline arranged another B777 (VT-ALP) for passengers and even provided refreshments for them.

On Sunday, over 100 flights were cancelled from the Delhi Airport due to dense fog conditions in the national capital. Meanwhile, more than 400 flights were also delayed at the airport.

Over the past few days, most parts of the nothern and northwestern regions of the country are witnessing dense fog condition.

“Dense to very dense fog conditions during night/morning hours very likely in some parts of Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana till morning hours of 21st; in isolated pockets of Punjab, Haryana during 25th-27,” the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had said in its press statement on Sunday.

On Friday also, an Air India flight travelling from Mumbai to Varanasi was forced to make an emergency diversion to Bhubaneswar after deteriorating weather conditions made landing at the destination airport unsafe. The aircraft landed at Biju Patnaik International Airport (BPIA) as a precautionary measure, airline officials confirmed.

Continue Reading

Business

Sensex, Nifty open in green zone amid positive global cues

Published

on

Mumbai, Dec 22: Indian benchmark indices opened in green zone on Monday, breaking the last week’s trend of edging lower, amid strong buying in the US and China markets.

As of 9.30 am, the Sensex advanced 507 points, or 0.60 per cent, at 84,436 and the Nifty added 165 points, or 0.64 per cent to 26,132.

The broad cap indices performed in line with the benchmarks, with the Nifty Midcap 100 up 0.58 per cent and the Nifty Smallcap 100 adding 0.51 per cent.

Hindalco, Tech Mahindra and TCS were among the major gainers in the Nifty Pack, while losers included Asian Paints, Bajaj Finance, Max Healthcare and Cipla.

All the sectoral indices on NSE were trading in the green with metal, IT and media being the major gainers — up around 1.48, 1.23 and 0.77 per cent, respectively.

Analysts noted that market is likely heading for a year-end rally. The rupee’s sharp reversal and FIIs’ cash market purchases can accelerate this rally, as they lead to short covering, pushing benchmark indices higher. The Goldilocks domestic economic set up and potential earnings growth uptrend can support a market upturn, they added.

The US markets ended mostly in the green zone on the last trading day, as Nasdaq advanced 1.31 per cent, the S&P 500 edged up 0.88 per cent, and the Dow moved up 0.38 per cent.

As investors parsed China’s central bank keeping loan prime rate steady, Asia-Pacific markets rose on Monday.

The People’s Bank of China maintained its 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates steady, which affects most new and outstanding loans and mortgages.

In Asian markets, China’s Shanghai index advanced 0.64 per cent, and Shenzhen dropped 1.36 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei edged up 1.75 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.29 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi added 1.72 per cent.

On Friday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 2,387 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 5,200 crore.

Continue Reading

Trending