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RBI may raise policy rates by 75 bps cumulatively in next 2 reviews: SBI Research

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 SBI Research expects the central bank, Reserve Bank of India (RBI), to raise key policy rates both in its June and August policy meeting by a cumulative 75 basis points.

Beyond August, rate actions might be more balanced and judicious and the terminal repo rate is expected to be at 5.15-5.25 per cent by FY23, it said.

This is tantamount to saying that the RBI should not increase the repo rate by more than 1.25 per cent for an incremental negative contribution to kick in.

Retail inflation surged to 7.79 per cent on yearly basis in April 2022, as compared to 6.95 per cent in March 2022, mainly on account of food price inflation.

Inflation prints are now likely to stay higher than 7 per cent till September, the SBI Research said in a report.

“Beyond September, inflation prints could hover between 6.5-7.0 per cent. Our FY23 inflation forecast is at 6.5 per cent, taking into account the possibility of an extended food price shock,” it said.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has significantly impacted the trajectory of inflation.

The latest April inflation print shows wheat, protein items (chicken in particular), milk, lemon, cooked meal, chillies, refined oil, potato, chillies, kerosene, firewood, gold and LPG are contributing to overall inflation in a substantive manner.

Interestingly, inflation in protein items like chicken, mustard oil etc, softened in April.

However this might be an aberration, given that April was the month of Navratri and other religious festivals, it added.

Surprisingly, the contribution of petrol and diesel in overall inflation has been declining steadily since October 2021, while there is a steady increase in the weighted contribution of kerosene and firewood in headline inflation.

The significant increase in weighted contribution of kerosene perhaps reflects the impact of high fuel costs in rural areas. This does not augur well for rural demand.

“The weighted contribution of LPG has also increased, reversing a downward trend. This however, may be attributed to commercial usage of LPG.”

Besides, the report said the RBI may increase the CRR rate by another 100 bps, after raising it by 50 basis points recently.

The RBI can give back to the market at least 3/4th of the Rs 2.6 lakh crore absorbed through the CRR hike, or Rs 1.95 lakh crore, in some form to address duration supply.

It would lower the market borrowing to around Rs 12.36 lakh crore for FY23 compared to the Budget estimate of Rs 14.3 lakh crore, the report added.

Further, SBI research added that the fall of the rupee to new lows, with spiking volatility breaching the psychological levels of 77 augurs the uneasy situation, reflective of the turbulence in broader markets globally, and the limited choices before the central bank in managing the exchange rate, even with seemingly comfortable levels of forex reserves close to $600 billion.

“We don’t expect the rupee to breach the levels of 80 and instead show an appreciative bias over time,” it said.

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World Bank flags rising poverty levels in Pakistan

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New Delhi, Oct 8: The World Bank has expressed serious concern over Pakistan’s economy as the country has failed to reduce poverty despite massive loans injected by the IMF.

The current model of growth has failed to ameliorate the conditions of the poor, and the headcount ratio (HCR) has surged to its highest level of 25.3 per cent in the last eight years, which is a 7 per cent increase in HCR since 2023, the World Bank report states.

Instead of concentrating on rural development to reduce poverty, the Pakistan government has been focused more on increasing defence expenditure.

The World Bank report titled “Reclaiming Momentum Towards Prosperity: Pakistan’s Poverty, Equity and Resilience Assessment” released on September 23, mentions that even the country’s aspiring middle class (constituting 42.7 per cent of its population) is “struggling to achieve full economic security”.

Pakistan’s once-promising poverty reduction trajectory has come to a troubling halt, reversing years of hard-fought gains.

After dramatically reducing poverty from 64.3 per cent in 2001 to 21.9 per cent in 2018 — declining by 3 percentage points annually until 2015 before slowing to less than 1 percentage point per year — recent compounding shocks have pushed poverty rates back up to a projected 25.3 per cent by 2023-24, the report states.

The economic model that delivered early wins has reached its limits, with 14 per cent of the population in 2018 remaining vulnerable to falling back into poverty when faced with shocks.

Compounding crises — Covid-19, economic instability, devastating floods, and record-high inflation—have further exposed systemic weaknesses, leaving many in low-productivity activities and unable to cope with these challenges, the report points out.

Bold policy reforms are now essential to address structural imbalances, prevent sliding back into poverty during shocks, and tackle the persistent challenges in remote areas. In this context, this Poverty, Equity, and Resilience Assessment , the first since the early 2000s, looks at how poverty has evolved in Pakistan by combining traditional and non-traditional data, offering detailed analysis and strategic direction on the country’s efforts and challenges to reduce poverty and promote equity.

This comprehensive assessment aims to provide a roadmap for policymakers and stakeholders to address poverty and equity challenges in Pakistan effectively, the report added.

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Securing India’s cyberspace a shared responsibility: Centre

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New Delhi, Oct 8: As cybersecurity incidents doubled in 2 years from 10.29 lakh in 2022 to 22.68 lakh in 2024, the Centre said on Wednesday that securing India’s cyberspace is a shared responsibility where the government and citizens must work together to combat cyber fraud.

Over 1,05,796 police officers are now registered on the CyTrain portal, with more than 82,704 certificates issued, equipping frontline personnel with essential cybercrime investigation skills, according to an official statement.

With financial support of Rs 132.93 crore from the Centre, cyber forensic-cum-training laboratories have trained over 24,600 personnel in cybercrime investigation, digital forensics, and preventive measures.

Further, as of March 2025, CERT-In facilitated 109 cybersecurity mock drills, engaging 1,438 organisations from different states and sectors to assess cyber readiness and build resilience, the government said

India’s digital expansion has connected over 86 per cent of households to the internet, increasing the risk of cyber fraud. Advanced forensics, big data analytics, and indigenous tools have bolstered national cyber resilience, the release said.

As India celebrates its rapid 5G rollout, with 1.2 billion mobile subscribers and 970 million internet users, the focus on secure, inclusive, and scalable digital ecosystems reinforces the country’s position as a global hub for trusted and transformative digital infrastructure, the release said.

The government cited evolving threats, including spoofing, phishing, and AI-driven deepfakes, where individuals are lured into revealing sensitive information through deceptive emails or messages, which are also on the rise.

As UPI was targeted using compromised mobile numbers, the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) launched the Financial Fraud Risk Indicator (FRI), which classified suspicious numbers as medium, high, or very high risk.

India’s legal framework includes the Information Technology Act and the Digital Personal Data Protection Act, along with operational platforms like CERT-In, NCIIPC, Samanvaya, and the Sahyog portal to combat the rise of cybersecurity threats, the release said.

Further, the National Cyber Crime Reporting Portal has been launched to enable citizens to report complaints relating to various categories of cybercrime, with a special focus on offences targeting women and children. A dedicated cybercrime helpline number, 1930, provides immediate assistance to victims of online financial fraud, the release noted.

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DGCA fines IndiGo Rs 20 lakh for lapses in pilot training

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New Delhi, Oct 8: The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) has imposed a fine of Rs 20 lakh on IndiGo for alleged lapses in pilot training at Category C aerodromes, airline’s parent company, InterGlobe Aviation, informed the stock exchanges on Wednesday.

According to the company’s filing, IndiGo received the communication from the aviation regulator on September 26.

The DGCA said the violation was related to the airline’s failure to use qualified simulators for pilot training, which is mandatory under aviation safety rules.

“Details of violation(s)/contravention(s) committed or alleged to be committed: Alleged failure to use qualified simulators for pilot training at Category C Aerodromes,” the company said in its filing.

In its response, IndiGo said it is contesting the DGCA order before the appellate authority.

The airline added that the penalty will not have any material impact on its finances, operations, or business activities.

“The Company is in the process of contesting this Order before the appropriate appellate authority,” the airline said.

“There is no material impact on financials, operations or other activities of the Company,” the airline added.

The company also explained the delay in disclosure, stating that it was unintentional and happened because of a lag in internal communication regarding the details of the order.

“The delay in disclosure was unintentional and was caused due to a delay in internal communication of details pertaining to the order,” the low-cost carrier mentioned.

The shares of IndiGo closed the intra-day trading session at Rs 5,630.50, down by Rs 33.50 or 0.59 per cent apiece on the National Stock Exchange (NSE).

Meanwhile, earlier this year, a Delhi-bound IndiGo aircraft carrying more than 150 passengers, including Samajwadi Party leader and Lok Sabha member Dimple Yadav, had aborted take-off at Lucknow airport after a technical issue was detected.

According to the official statement, the incident took place on IndiGo flight 6E2111, which was scheduled to depart from Lucknow to Delhi.

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