Business
RBI may raise policy rates by 75 bps cumulatively in next 2 reviews: SBI Research
SBI Research expects the central bank, Reserve Bank of India (RBI), to raise key policy rates both in its June and August policy meeting by a cumulative 75 basis points.
Beyond August, rate actions might be more balanced and judicious and the terminal repo rate is expected to be at 5.15-5.25 per cent by FY23, it said.
This is tantamount to saying that the RBI should not increase the repo rate by more than 1.25 per cent for an incremental negative contribution to kick in.
Retail inflation surged to 7.79 per cent on yearly basis in April 2022, as compared to 6.95 per cent in March 2022, mainly on account of food price inflation.
Inflation prints are now likely to stay higher than 7 per cent till September, the SBI Research said in a report.
“Beyond September, inflation prints could hover between 6.5-7.0 per cent. Our FY23 inflation forecast is at 6.5 per cent, taking into account the possibility of an extended food price shock,” it said.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has significantly impacted the trajectory of inflation.
The latest April inflation print shows wheat, protein items (chicken in particular), milk, lemon, cooked meal, chillies, refined oil, potato, chillies, kerosene, firewood, gold and LPG are contributing to overall inflation in a substantive manner.
Interestingly, inflation in protein items like chicken, mustard oil etc, softened in April.
However this might be an aberration, given that April was the month of Navratri and other religious festivals, it added.
Surprisingly, the contribution of petrol and diesel in overall inflation has been declining steadily since October 2021, while there is a steady increase in the weighted contribution of kerosene and firewood in headline inflation.
The significant increase in weighted contribution of kerosene perhaps reflects the impact of high fuel costs in rural areas. This does not augur well for rural demand.
“The weighted contribution of LPG has also increased, reversing a downward trend. This however, may be attributed to commercial usage of LPG.”
Besides, the report said the RBI may increase the CRR rate by another 100 bps, after raising it by 50 basis points recently.
The RBI can give back to the market at least 3/4th of the Rs 2.6 lakh crore absorbed through the CRR hike, or Rs 1.95 lakh crore, in some form to address duration supply.
It would lower the market borrowing to around Rs 12.36 lakh crore for FY23 compared to the Budget estimate of Rs 14.3 lakh crore, the report added.
Further, SBI research added that the fall of the rupee to new lows, with spiking volatility breaching the psychological levels of 77 augurs the uneasy situation, reflective of the turbulence in broader markets globally, and the limited choices before the central bank in managing the exchange rate, even with seemingly comfortable levels of forex reserves close to $600 billion.
“We don’t expect the rupee to breach the levels of 80 and instead show an appreciative bias over time,” it said.
Business
ED arrests real estate firm MD in PMLA case, accused sent to 14-day custody

New Delhi, Nov 15: The Enforcement Directorate (ED) has arrested Ocean Seven Buildtech Pvt. Ltd. (OSBPL) Managing Director Swaraj Singh Yadav after conducting searches at nine locations across Delhi-NCR and other regions in a money-laundering probe under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA), 2002, an agency statement said on Saturday.
The action stems from allegations that Yadav diverted and laundered funds collected from homebuyers across multiple projects, including those under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY).
The searches on Thursday led to the recovery of Rs 86 lakh in cash, suspected to be proceeds of crime, along with incriminating documents and digital evidence.
According to the ED, Yadav orchestrated a large-scale diversion of homebuyer funds through fraudulent cancellation and resale of units at inflated prices, cash-based premiums collected outside banking channels, and misuse of escrow accounts.
He allegedly routed substantial sums into shell entities and concealed cash proceeds with relatives, the ED statement said.
Investigators also found a pattern of rapid liquidation of assets held personally and through company entities in Gurugram, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan, which the agency believes was intended to secure illicit gains and evade legal scrutiny.
His wife and children have already relocated to the United States, the probe revealed.
The agency said Yadav operated a dual-payment mechanism in the resale of PMAY flats and even in the sale of parking spaces — routing only nominal amounts through banks while collecting the bulk in cash. These activities form part of a wider probe linked to multiple FIRs alleging cheating, forgery, and other predicate offences.
Following his arrest, Yadav was produced before the Court of ASJ-06 at Patiala House Courts on Friday, in compliance with Supreme Court directions.
After detailed submissions from both sides and a pass-over granted to allow him legal assistance, the court sent him to ED custody for 14 days, until November 28.
The agency has been directed to produce him before the court at 2 p.m. on the date of expiry of remand.
The ED said it is pursuing further investigation to trace, freeze, and attach assets acquired from the laundered funds, to ensure recovery and restitution to affected homebuyers.
Business
IndiGo to start flights from Navi Mumbai International Airport from Dec 25

Mumbai, Nov 15: Low-cost airline IndiGo on Saturday announced flight operations from the newly-opened Navi Mumbai International Airport (NMIA) starting December 25, connecting the airport to 10 cities across the country.
IndiGo will connect the future-ready airport to 10 cities, including Delhi, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad, Lucknow, North Goa (Mopa), Jaipur, Nagpur, Cochin, and Mangalore, the airline said in a statement.
The airline said it plans to expand operations at NMIA progressively by adding direct routes to more destinations in due course.
NMIA, the second airport in the Mumbai metropolitan area, is designed to complement Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj International Airport and meet growing demand for air travel from India’s financial capital.
NMIA is expected to enhance regional connectivity and support economic development in western India due to its strategic location.
By enhancing regional connectivity and supporting economic development in western India, the launch of IndiGo’s operations will connect the airport to its vast domestic network of 95 airports across the country, it added.
The Navi Mumbai International Airport was inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi last month, as a major achievement in India’s economic development and “a symbol of Bharat’s aspirations”.
PM Modi said that Mumbai welcomed its second international airport, marking a significant milestone in its journey to becoming Asia’s premier connectivity hub. “Through this new airport, the farmers of Maharashtra will be able to connect with supermarkets in Europe and the Middle East as well,” he observed.
NMIA will ease congestion at Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj International Airport and significantly increase India’s aviation capacity.
The Navi Mumbai International Airport Private is designed to accommodate both domestic and international passengers, featuring state-of-the-art facilities. It includes a 3,700-metre runway capable of handling large commercial aircraft, modern passenger terminals, and advanced air traffic control systems.
Business
Stock markets end week on a strong note as NDA secures landmark win in Bihar

Mumbai, Nov 15: Indian equity markets ended the week on a strong note, with benchmark indices gaining on the resolution of the US government shutdown, supported by strong domestic fundamentals, better-than-expected Q2 earnings, easing inflation and NDA’s historic victory in Bihar, according to analysts.
Record-low October inflation reinforced expectations of an RBI rate cut, adding momentum to domestic equities.
According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited, sectoral momentum was broad-based, led by gains in IT, Pharma, healthcare and Auto stocks.
“Toward the week’s close, the NDA’s Bihar election victory bolstered investor confidence, but fading expectations of a U.S. Fed rate cut triggered profit booking in IT stocks, tempering their earlier gains,” he mentioned.
The indices remained under pressure for most of the session on Friday, oscillating between losses and brief recoveries, before a strong late-afternoon rebound pushed them into the green.
Volatility picked up as markets tracked the Bihar election outcome, the day’s key trigger.
Sentiment was also weighed down by weak global cues after Wall Street fell sharply overnight, led by declines in Nvidia and other tech majors as investors dialled back hopes of near-term rate cuts amid lingering inflation worries, according to a note by Bajaj Broking Research.
At close, the Sensex ended 84 points or 0.1 per cent higher at 84,563, while the Nifty finished 31 points up at 25,910. Sectoral trends were mixed, with PSU banks leading gains at 1.17 per cent, followed by firm moves in pharma and FMCG.
Energy and infrastructure saw mild upticks. On the downside, IT declined 1.03 per cent, while auto, metal, and realty ended lower.
Among the broader market space, Nifty Small-cap 100 rose 0.38 per cent, while the Midcap 100 gained 0.08 per cent.
According to analysts, Nifty on the weekly chart has formed a strong bull candle with a higher high and a higher low signaling pullback after two weeks of corrective decline, “in line with our expectations from the key support area of 25,400-25,300”.
Going ahead, bias continues to remain positive and a follow through strength above last month high of 26,100 will open upside towards the previous all-time high of 26,277 in the coming week.
Looking ahead, market direction will hinge on key macro triggers such as India’s PMI data, US jobless claims, FOMC minutes and progress on US–India trade negotiations.
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