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RBI may raise policy rates by 75 bps cumulatively in next 2 reviews: SBI Research

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 SBI Research expects the central bank, Reserve Bank of India (RBI), to raise key policy rates both in its June and August policy meeting by a cumulative 75 basis points.

Beyond August, rate actions might be more balanced and judicious and the terminal repo rate is expected to be at 5.15-5.25 per cent by FY23, it said.

This is tantamount to saying that the RBI should not increase the repo rate by more than 1.25 per cent for an incremental negative contribution to kick in.

Retail inflation surged to 7.79 per cent on yearly basis in April 2022, as compared to 6.95 per cent in March 2022, mainly on account of food price inflation.

Inflation prints are now likely to stay higher than 7 per cent till September, the SBI Research said in a report.

“Beyond September, inflation prints could hover between 6.5-7.0 per cent. Our FY23 inflation forecast is at 6.5 per cent, taking into account the possibility of an extended food price shock,” it said.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has significantly impacted the trajectory of inflation.

The latest April inflation print shows wheat, protein items (chicken in particular), milk, lemon, cooked meal, chillies, refined oil, potato, chillies, kerosene, firewood, gold and LPG are contributing to overall inflation in a substantive manner.

Interestingly, inflation in protein items like chicken, mustard oil etc, softened in April.

However this might be an aberration, given that April was the month of Navratri and other religious festivals, it added.

Surprisingly, the contribution of petrol and diesel in overall inflation has been declining steadily since October 2021, while there is a steady increase in the weighted contribution of kerosene and firewood in headline inflation.

The significant increase in weighted contribution of kerosene perhaps reflects the impact of high fuel costs in rural areas. This does not augur well for rural demand.

“The weighted contribution of LPG has also increased, reversing a downward trend. This however, may be attributed to commercial usage of LPG.”

Besides, the report said the RBI may increase the CRR rate by another 100 bps, after raising it by 50 basis points recently.

The RBI can give back to the market at least 3/4th of the Rs 2.6 lakh crore absorbed through the CRR hike, or Rs 1.95 lakh crore, in some form to address duration supply.

It would lower the market borrowing to around Rs 12.36 lakh crore for FY23 compared to the Budget estimate of Rs 14.3 lakh crore, the report added.

Further, SBI research added that the fall of the rupee to new lows, with spiking volatility breaching the psychological levels of 77 augurs the uneasy situation, reflective of the turbulence in broader markets globally, and the limited choices before the central bank in managing the exchange rate, even with seemingly comfortable levels of forex reserves close to $600 billion.

“We don’t expect the rupee to breach the levels of 80 and instead show an appreciative bias over time,” it said.

Business

India reaches 709 million active UPI QRs, logs 59.33 billion transactions in July-Sep

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Mumbai, Dec 18: The unified payments interface (UPI) transaction volumes rose 33.5 per cent (year-on-year) to 59.33 billion transactions in the July-September period, as transaction value grew 21 per cent to Rs 74.84 lakh crore, a report showed on Thursday.

India reached 709 million active UPI QRs, marking a 21 per cent increase since July 2024. Dense QR acceptance across kiranas, pharmacies, transport hubs, and rural markets has made scan-and-pay the default payment mode nationwide, according to the report by Worldline India.

Person-to-merchant (P2M) transactions continued to outpace person-to-person (P2P), reflecting UPI’s dominance in everyday retail payments.

P2M transactions were up 35 per cent to 37.46 billion transactions while P2P transactions rose 29 per cent to 21.65 billion transactions, the report said.

The third quarter (Q3 2025) further reinforced India’s position as the world’s most dynamic real-time payments economy — where every scan, tap, and click is reshaping consumer and merchant behaviour.

The average ticket size declined to Rs 1,262 (from Rs 1,363), highlighting increased usage for micro-transactions such as mobility, food, healthcare essentials, and hyperlocal commerce.

Point of sale (PoS) terminals grew 35 per cent to 12.12 million (July 2024–July 2025). Bharat QR stood at 6.10 million, witnessing marginal decline amid the shift toward UPI QR dominance.

Private banks led acceptance deployment, accounting for 84 per cent market share. While credit card issuance grew by 8 per cent (on-year) to 113.39 million cards, debit cards reached 1.02 billion and prepaid cards stood at 470.1 million.

Credit card transactions grew 26 per cent to 1.45 billion, with transaction value at Rs 6.07 lakh crore. Debit card transactions declined 22 per cent, reflecting migration of low-ticket spends to UPI, the report showed.

Mobile and tap-based payments continued to accelerate, with contactless adoption gaining momentum across metros, mobility services, and quick-service retail.

“The outlook for Q4 2025 and early 2026 points to accelerated innovation and deeper ecosystem integration. Interoperable QR is expected to move from pilot phases to everyday usage across mobility, healthcare, fuel stations, and public utilities—delivering a unified scan-and-pay experience,” the report mentioned.

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Indian rupee likely to bounce back strongly in 2nd half of next fiscal: SBI report

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New Delhi, Dec 17: Geopolitical uncertainties driven by the delay in the India-US trade deal have been the single-most important reasons for the rupee sliding against the US dollar, an SBI Research report said on Wednesday, adding that the rupee is likely to bounce back strongly in the second half of the next fiscal.

India’s trade data shows the remarkable resilience in navigating through prolonged uncertainty, more protectionism and labour supply shocks.

“While the geopolitical risk index has moderated since April 2025, the current average value of the index for April-October 2025 is much greater than its decadal average, which indicates how much pressure global uncertainties are exerting on INR,” State Bank of India’s (SBI) Group Chief Economic Advisor, Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, said.

Dr Ghosh further stated that consistent with their empirical analysis, “the rupee is currently in a depreciating regime and is likely to exit it”.

After breaching the psychologically important mark of 90 per US dollar, the rupee crossed the 91-level on Tuesday.

However, the rupee staged a sharp recovery on Wednesday, trading as strong as 90.25 during the day, as the cooling of crude prices also contributed to improved sentiment.

According to the SBI report, the data also indicates that the current fall is the quickest (in terms of number of days) of the rupee, scaled to 5 per USD. In less than a year, the rupee has slid from 85 to 90 per dollar.

The current slide appears to be primarily driven by FPI outflows, chiefly equities (after two years of robust inflows) and uncertainty regarding the US-India trade deal.

Since April 2, 2025, when the US announced sweeping tariff hikes across economies, the Indian rupee (INR) has depreciated by 5.7 per cent against USD (most amongst the major economies), notwithstanding sporadic phases of appreciation owing to optimism over the US-India trade deal.

“While INR is the most depreciated currency, it is not the most volatile. This clearly indicates that the 50 per cent tariff imposed on India is one of the major factors behind the current phase of rupee depreciation,” the SBI report noted.

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Indian markets hit fresh highs in November, outshine global peers: Report

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Mumbai, Dec 17: Indian equity markets touched fresh all-time highs in November and clearly outperformed global markets, a new report said on Wednesday.

The data compiled by PL Asset Management said India emerged as a bright spot at a time when many global markets struggled due to weak technology stocks, fading enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and soft economic data from China.

The report noted that record-low inflation, steady domestic growth and reasonable valuations improved the overall outlook for investors.

“While global markets remained uneven, India benefited from strong local demand, supportive liquidity and a predictable policy environment,” the report said.

Inflation played a major role in boosting market sentiment during the month. Consumer price inflation fell sharply to just 0.25 per cent, the lowest level on record and far below the Reserve Bank of India’s target of 4 per cent.

This sharp fall strengthened expectations of further interest rate cuts, which supported equity valuations. Reflecting confidence in the economy, the RBI raised its GDP growth forecast for FY26 to 7.3 per cent.

India also recorded strong GDP growth of 8.2 per cent in the second quarter of FY26, reinforcing its position as the fastest-growing major economy in the world, the report said.

Domestic economic indicators remained healthy despite global challenges. Manufacturing activity stayed strong, even though exports were slightly affected by tariffs.

Goods and Services Tax collections remained robust at Rs 1.70 lakh crore, as per the report.

Festive season spending also supported growth. In addition, India’s current account deficit improved to 1.3 per cent of GDP.

Global markets, meanwhile, showed signs of fatigue. US technology stocks faced profit booking, China and Hong Kong markets weakened due to poor economic data, and investors turned to precious metals for safety.

Crude oil prices softened amid expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. Against this global backdrop, India’s stable fundamentals helped it continue to outperform.

Siddharth Vora, Head – Quant Investment Strategies & Fund Manager, PL Asset Management, said, “Indian markets continue to demonstrate relative resilience at a time when global risk assets are undergoing a phase of recalibration.”

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