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Nov retail inflation rate may be down, battle continues

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With core inflation continuing to be high, credit rating agencies like Acuite Ratings & Research and CARE Ratings do not expect any significant downtrend in the retail inflation for the next few months.

“It is a pleasant surprise to see the headline CPI inflation print at 5.88 per cent in Nov-22 from 6.77 per cent in Oct-22 since most market participants estimated it to be above 6.0 per cent. This is an eleven-month low figure and is clearly driven by the faster-than-expected decline in food inflation which stood at 5.1 per cent in the previous month,” Suman Chowdhury, Chief Analytical Officer said.

According to Chowdhury, the fall in retail inflation has been due to the quick drop in vegetable prices which is a seasonal phenomenon apart from the continuing softness in edible oil prices.

“Nevertheless, the core inflation figure remains high for RBI’s comfort and has in fact moved up further to 6.29 per cent in Nov-22 from 6.23 per cent in Oct-22; on an MoM basis, the core inflation went up by 0.43 per cent, highlighting the embedded nature of the current inflationary environment,” Chowdhury said.

The moderately healthy, if not strong, momentum in domestic demand is leading to the holding up of the core inflation.

Also, the base factor was relatively an advantage for the Nov-22 print which may not be the case for Dec-22. Therefore, we don’t expect any significant trend downward for the CPI inflation for the next few months, Chowdhury said.

“Given the core inflation trajectory, we continue to forecast an average figure of 6.7 per cent for CPI inflation in FY23. We also continue to expect another round of modest hike in Feb-23 which will take the terminal rate to 6.5 per cent or higher,” Chowdhury said.

According to CARE Ratings, though the inflationary pressures are on a declining trend, the war against inflation is still not over.

The moderation in food inflation is comforting, but it is mostly led by vegetables which are susceptible to weather fluctuations.

Cereals and milk inflation, the top two contributors to food inflation, are still elevated and on an upward trend, CARE Ratings said.

In this context, better Rabi acreage in the current season is a comforting factor. The strengthening of services inflation has led to sticky core price pressures despite easing of goods inflation.

Taking cue from the recent data, the RBI will remain cautious to prevent inflationary expectations from spiralling upwards.

However, with disappointing data from the Manufacturing sector, the Central Banks’ decision to go for another rate hike in the February meeting will be a close call.

Business

Sensex, Nifty edge higher as geopolitical tensions ease

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New Delhi, Oct 10: Indian stock markets opened on a flat note but soon moved higher on Friday, supported by positive global sentiment.

The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and signs of a possible trade deal between the US and India boosted investor confidence.

After the opening bell, the Sensex gained 148 points, or 0.18 per cent, to trade at 82,320 levels. The Nifty also rose 40 points, or 0.16 per cent, to 25,221 levels.

“Though yesterday’s push higher in the second half failed to clear the week’s high, it did serve to invalidate the bearish bias of the evening star candle stick pattern,” market experts said.

“This encourages us to look for 25460, in the days ahead. For the day, inability to push and float above 25215 or direct fall past 25113, could render the trend sideways, but may not call for a break of 24982 right away,” they added.

In the broader market, the Nifty Midcap 100 index inched up 0.18 per cent, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 advanced 0.28 per cent — indicating healthy participation from mid- and small-cap stocks.

Among the sectoral indices, Nifty Metal was the worst performer, slipping 1.4 per cent. It was followed by weakness in Auto, Pharma, and Healthcare stocks.

On the other hand, sectors such as Banking, Energy, FMCG, IT, Consumer Durables, Oil & Gas, and Realty were trading with gains.

In the Sensex pack, Power Grid, State Bank of India, NTPC, Adani Ports, and Asian Paints were among the top gainers.

Meanwhile, Tata Steel, TCS, Bajaj Finance, M&M, and HCL Tech were trading in the red.

“The overall market environment is turning positive. Globally, the GAZA peace accord signals end to the conflict and reduction of geopolitical risk from the region,” analysts said.

“Domestically, there are indications of a trade deal between US and India with India ‘rebalancing’ its oil purchases,” they added.

According to market analysts, these positive developments and the shift in FII strategy ( FIIs were buyers in the cash market in the last three trading days) bode well for the market.

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PM Modi meets Keir Starmer in Mumbai for strengthening India-UK ties

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Mumbai, Oct 9: Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomed UK Prime Minister Keri Starmer at Raj Bhavan and held a meeting as part of the process to strengthen the strategic partnership between the two countries.

The Ministry of External Affairs shared photos of Prime Minister Narendra Modi meeting UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

“Together for stronger India-UK ties…,” posted Randhir Jaiswal, the MEA spokesperson, on X.

Earlier, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said his meeting with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer here further deepened trade and economic partnership for mutual prosperity between the two nations.

Starmer arrived in India for a two-day visit on Wednesday, accompanied by the biggest-ever trade delegation from the country to India.

“Delighted to call on UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Discussed avenues to further deepen India-UK trade and economic partnership for mutual prosperity,” Goyal posted on X social media platform.

Goyal earlier met Peter Kyle, the UK’s Secretary of State for Business and Trade, with a view to moving forward with the operationalisation of the India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) and doubling the bilateral trade by 2030.

“The meeting marked a significant step towards operationalising the India-UK CETA, with both Ministers agreeing to reposition the Joint Economic and Trade Committee (JETCO) to oversee its implementation and delivery,” according to the Commerce Ministry statement.

Both sides underlined their commitment to ensuring swift, coordinated, and results-oriented implementation of the Agreement, aimed at realising its full potential for businesses and consumers in both countries. The ministers reaffirmed their shared ambition to double bilateral trade by 2030, leveraging the complementarities between the two economies in areas such as advanced manufacturing, digital trade, clean energy, and services.

Emphasising the transformative scope of CETA, they discussed ways to maximise its benefits through regulatory cooperation, addressing non-tariff barriers, and promoting supply chain integration. The highly productive Commerce Secretary and Director General-level meeting set the tone for the Ministerial meeting, which laid a strong foundation for a full day of engaging and forward-looking discussions.

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Sensex, Nifty open flat with positive bias amid global optimism

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Mumbai, Oct 9: Indian stock markets opened flat but with a slight positive tone on Thursday, taking cues from upbeat global trends.

At the opening bell, the Sensex was up 17 points, or 0.02 per cent, at 81,791, while the Nifty gained 17 points, or 0.07 per cent, to trade at 25,063.

“From a technical standpoint for Nifty, a sustained move above 25,150 could open the door for an upside toward 25,200–25,250,” analysts said.

“On the downside, immediate support is placed around 24,950–24,900, which may serve as potential accumulation zones for long positions,” they added.

“Overall, the index is expected to remain range-bound between 24,900 and 25,200 in the near term,” experts mentioned.

Broader markets also saw some strength, with the Nifty MidCap index rising 0.3 per cent and the Nifty SmallCap index advancing 0.21 per cent.

On the institutional front, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) extended their buying streak for the second consecutive session on October 8, purchasing equities worth Rs 81 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought equities worth Rs 329 crore on the same day.

Asian markets traded higher after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit record closing highs overnight on Wall Street.

Investor sentiment also improved after US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas had agreed to the first phase of a US-brokered peace plan to pause fighting in Gaza and allow the release of hostages and prisoners.

According to experts, traders remained cautiously optimistic, tracking global cues and geopolitical developments.

“The results season starting today will be keenly watched by the market. IT stocks have witnessed some recovery from the bottom, but the headwinds for the segment continue to be strong,” market experts said.

“Banking stocks have largely remained range bound on muted earnings expectations. The NIM pressure and rising delinquencies in the unsecured loan segments will weigh on banking results generally. So, watch out for the out-performers in the segment,” they added.

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