Business
Nifty is due for a pause, may even ease in early part of 2022: Report
Even after the GDP bounce-back off the low Covid-19 base, India can manage a 7.7 per cent expansion in FY23 and hence deliver growth that is almost unrivalled globally, UBS said in a report.
Yet, after a stellar two years for the Nifty where it even left the S&P behind at times (even in US Dollar terms), we believe the valuation does not fully reflect upcoming headwinds, the report said.
These include rising interest rates both globally and in India, and importantly, the return of India’s historic soft spot, current account deficits. “These headwinds may affect not only the country’s stock market but also the INR. We hence believe a multi-month pause is in order, the recent correction notwithstanding,” the report said.
“All told, within the space of two years, the current account is likely to swing from its surplus of 0.9 per cent of GDP towards a 1.9 per cent deficit, in our view. We believe this will bring down the INR. We look for USDINR to trade towards 79 levels by end-2022,” UBS said.
Another interesting and potentially bearish aspect is the lopsidedness of recent inflows that have kept the market afloat. They are now derived almost exclusively from domestic retail investors. However, the past has shown that this type of flows can stop when markets no longer exhibit a steady rise, and potentially higher bank deposit rates could become a potent competitor again when the RBI starts to hike interest rates, UBS said.
India’s stock market left most emerging markets and even developed markets counterparts in the dust during 2020 and especially 2021. That said, and the structural appeal of the Indian market notwithstanding, we believe in the near term the Nifty is due for a pause, and may even ease in the early part of 2022, UBS said.
“A key reason is indeed the still lofty valuation premium. We expect this process to continue. The earnings growth of 28.3 per cent for FY22 and 11.7 per cent for FY23 works as a partial counter-force and will likely help to prevent a strong correction. At the same time, we stress that as is often the case, consensus estimates look implausibly high to us”, UBS said.
Still, financials should come to the fore on the back of rising loan growth, coupled with expanding interest margins. We also like cyclical names in the vehicle, cement and construction space. We believe materials stocks on multi-year high valuations will likely underperform as some supply tightness eases, the report said.
In our estimate, the central bank will likely start to slightly tighten policy measures from March and subsequently raise its repo rate around September, followed by a second rate hike later during the year to arrive at 4.5 per cent, the report said.
During the early part of the pandemic, exports held up reasonably well while imports plummeted. Yet, for FY23, we expect only small export growth while imports should come roaring back as the economy reopens further and oil prices are rising.
Business
Sensex, Nifty Open Flat, Mixed Global Cues & Lack Of Major Domestic Triggers Keep Investor Sentiment Muted

Mumbai: Indian stock markets opened flat with a slight negative trend on Wednesday as mixed global cues and a lack of major domestic triggers kept investor sentiment muted. With the Q2 FY26 earnings season coming to an end, traders showed limited enthusiasm, leaving the indices stuck in a narrow range.
The Sensex slipped 81 points, or 0.10 per cent, to 84,592 in early trade. The Nifty also declined, dropping 34 points, or 0.13 per cent, to 25,877. “The broader benchmark Nifty 50 remains range-bound after the prior session, with resistance seen around 26,000–26,050 and near-term support in the 25,800–25,750 band — a potential accumulation zone for positional traders,” experts said. “Given this setup, a selective buy-on-dips strategy remains appropriate — apply tight trailing stop-losses, and book partial profits on rallies,” analysts mentioned.
Tata Motors PV, NTPC, Bajaj Finserv, Eternal and Sun Pharma were among the major drags on the Sensex. However, gains in HUL, Infosys, TCS, Tata Steel, Tech Mahindra, and Trent helped cushion the fall and prevented a deeper decline. In the broader market, the trend remained weak. The Nifty MidCap index slipped 0.06 per cent, while the Nifty SmallCap index fell 0.23 per cent. Sector-wise, the Nifty IT index was the only notable performer, rising 0.62 per cent as technology stocks saw selective buying.
On the other hand, real estate stocks struggled, with the Nifty Realty index emerging as the biggest loser, down 0.5 per cent. Analysts said markets may continue to remain rangebound in the absence of fresh triggers and ahead of global macroeconomic developments expected later this week. “Investors should prioritise safety at this juncture. Safety is in large caps. Large segments of the mid and small cap space are overvalued having been driven up only by liquidity flows from exuberant investors,” analysts said.
Business
Gold, silver tumble as hopes of December Fed Rate cut fade

Mumbai, Nov 18: Gold and silver prices dropped sharply in the domestic futures market on Tuesday morning as hopes of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in December faded and concerns over US tariffs eased.
This reduced the appeal of safe-haven assets like bullion. At early trade, MCX Gold December futures were trading 1.19 per cent lower at Rs 1,21,466 per 10 grams.
MCX Silver December contracts also declined 1.65 per cent to Rs 1,52,750 per kg.
“Gold has support at $4000-3965 while resistance at $4075-4110. Silver has support at $49.70-49.45 while resistance is at $50.75-51.10,” market watchers said.
“In INR gold has support at Rs1,22,350-1,21,780 while resistance at Rs1,23,750-1,24,500. Silver has support at Rs1,53,850-1,52,100 while resistance at Rs1,56,540, 1,57,280,” they added.
Internationally, gold prices slipped for the fourth straight session on Tuesday.
A stronger US dollar and weakening expectations of a rate cut next month continued to weigh on the metal.
The dollar index rose to 99.59, making gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Gold, which is priced in US dollars, becomes costlier when the greenback strengthens, resulting in reduced demand.
The recent US government shutdown, which lasted a record 43 days, had delayed the release of important economic data, creating uncertainty about the condition of the world’s largest economy.
With the shutdown now over, attention has shifted to key data releases expected this week, including the September nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday.
These numbers will play a major role in shaping expectations around the US Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates.
Meanwhile, Fed officials continue to send mixed signals on the future path of monetary policy, adding further uncertainty to the market.
With no major positive fundamental triggers in recent days, bulls remain hesitant—especially with both metals still trading at historically high levels.
“Traders now await a fresh round of US economic data later this week. Meanwhile, a firmer US Dollar Index and slightly higher 10-year Treasury yields added pressure to precious metals,” analysts said.
Business
Sensex, Nifty open lower on weak global cues

Mumbai, Nov 18: Indian stock markets opened lower on Tuesday as weak global cues weighed on investor sentiment. Both benchmark indices slipped 0.2 per cent at the opening bell.
The Sensex dropped 195 points to trade at 84,756 in early deals, while the Nifty fell 64 points to 25,949. Most heavyweight stocks were under pressure, dragging the indices down.
“Immediate resistance now lies at 26,100, followed by 26,150, while the 25,850–25,900 band is likely to offer meaningful support and serve as an accumulation zone for positional traders,” market experts said.
“These levels will remain crucial as the index navigates early weakness,” experts noted.
Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech, Sun Pharma and Titan were among the major laggards, declining between 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent.
However, a few stocks managed to stay in positive territory. Bharat Electronics, Bharti Airtel, Axis Bank, Eternal and State Bank of India were the only gainers on the Sensex, rising up to 0.5 per cent.
Broader markets also opened weak, with the Nifty MidCap index slipping 0.25 per cent and the Nifty SmallCap index falling 0.40 per cent.
Among sectoral indices, Nifty PSU Bank was the only one to trade higher, gaining 0.25 per cent. On the other hand, Nifty Realty and Nifty Metal dropped 0.8 per cent each, while the Nifty IT index fell 0.5 per cent.
The Bank Nifty mirrored the broader market’s resilience, reflecting renewed buying momentum.
“Strong support is identified at 58,600, and a breakdown below this mark may trigger a modest decline toward 58,800,” market watchers mentioned.
“On the upside, resistance at 59,100 remains a key barrier, and a sustained breakout above this level may open the path toward 59,300, indicating potential continuation of the bullish trend,” experts stated.
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