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Nifty is due for a pause, may even ease in early part of 2022: Report

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3 years ago

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Even after the GDP bounce-back off the low Covid-19 base, India can manage a 7.7 per cent expansion in FY23 and hence deliver growth that is almost unrivalled globally, UBS said in a report.

Yet, after a stellar two years for the Nifty where it even left the S&P behind at times (even in US Dollar terms), we believe the valuation does not fully reflect upcoming headwinds, the report said.

These include rising interest rates both globally and in India, and importantly, the return of India’s historic soft spot, current account deficits. “These headwinds may affect not only the country’s stock market but also the INR. We hence believe a multi-month pause is in order, the recent correction notwithstanding,” the report said.

“All told, within the space of two years, the current account is likely to swing from its surplus of 0.9 per cent of GDP towards a 1.9 per cent deficit, in our view. We believe this will bring down the INR. We look for USDINR to trade towards 79 levels by end-2022,” UBS said.

Another interesting and potentially bearish aspect is the lopsidedness of recent inflows that have kept the market afloat. They are now derived almost exclusively from domestic retail investors. However, the past has shown that this type of flows can stop when markets no longer exhibit a steady rise, and potentially higher bank deposit rates could become a potent competitor again when the RBI starts to hike interest rates, UBS said.

India’s stock market left most emerging markets and even developed markets counterparts in the dust during 2020 and especially 2021. That said, and the structural appeal of the Indian market notwithstanding, we believe in the near term the Nifty is due for a pause, and may even ease in the early part of 2022, UBS said.

“A key reason is indeed the still lofty valuation premium. We expect this process to continue. The earnings growth of 28.3 per cent for FY22 and 11.7 per cent for FY23 works as a partial counter-force and will likely help to prevent a strong correction. At the same time, we stress that as is often the case, consensus estimates look implausibly high to us”, UBS said.

Still, financials should come to the fore on the back of rising loan growth, coupled with expanding interest margins. We also like cyclical names in the vehicle, cement and construction space. We believe materials stocks on multi-year high valuations will likely underperform as some supply tightness eases, the report said.

In our estimate, the central bank will likely start to slightly tighten policy measures from March and subsequently raise its repo rate around September, followed by a second rate hike later during the year to arrive at 4.5 per cent, the report said.

During the early part of the pandemic, exports held up reasonably well while imports plummeted. Yet, for FY23, we expect only small export growth while imports should come roaring back as the economy reopens further and oil prices are rising.

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Business

Union Budget falls on Saturday this year, stock exchanges to remain open

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12 hours ago

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January 10, 2025

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New Delhi, Jan 10: As the preparations for the Union Budget 2025-26, which generally comes on February 1, are in full swing, all eyes are now on the official confirmation from the government about presenting the budget over the weekend this year.

There have been occasions in the past when the Union Budget was presented on Saturdays and the domestic stock markets were open.

On February 1, 2020, and February 28, 2015, the markets were open on Saturday due to the presentation of the Union Budget.

In a circular dated December 23, the National Stock Exchange (NSE), has already said that due to the presentation of the Union Budget, a special trading session has been kept for Saturday, February 1, 2025.

“On account of the presentation of the Union Budget, Exchange shall be conducting a live trading session on February 01, 2025, as per the standard market timings,” according to the circular.

The pre-open session will be from 9 a.m. to 9.08 a.m. After this, there will be a normal trading session from 9.15 a.m. to 3.30 p.m.

On February 1, 2024, the Nifty closed with a decline of 0.13 per cent during the presentation of the interim budget.

On the day of the full budget presented on July 23, 2024, after the Lok Sabha elections, the Nifty closed with a decline of 0.12 per cent.

Meanwhile, the government will continue its focus on improving quality spending, strengthening the social security net, and reducing the fiscal deficit to 4.5 per cent of the GDP in the financial year 2025-2026, according to a Finance Ministry statement.

FM Sitharaman is expected to continue with the government’s position of increasing expenditure on big-ticket infrastructure projects and social welfare schemes for the poor while keeping the fiscal deficit in check when she presents the Union Budget for 2025-26 in Parliament on February 1.

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Business

Torres Jewellery Scam: EOW Raids Uncover ₹3 Crore In Cash, Arrests Three In Multi-Crore Fraud

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16 hours ago

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January 10, 2025

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Mumbai: The Mumbai Police’s Economic Offences Wing (EOW) conducted raids at six locations as part of its investigation into the multi-crore fraud involving Torres Company. The raids targeted the company’s offices in Dadar, Lower Parel, and Opera House, along with the residences of three accused individuals in Colaba, Umerkhadi (Dongri), and Dombivli.

During the operation, the EOW seized ₹3 crore in cash from the company’s offices and the residences of the accused. The cash was counted using two specialized machines. Several crucial documents were also recovered. Confirming the action, a senior EOW official identified the arrested individuals as Tania Casatova (Uzbekistan) from Colaba, Valentina Ganesh Kumar (Russia) from Dombivli, and Sarvesh Surve from Umerkhadi.

According to EOW sources, absconding accused Mohammed Tausif Riaz, alias John Carter, has submitted a 182-page report. The report alleges that the same individuals behind the Torres fraud were also responsible for the 2019 B2B jewelry scam in Ukraine and Russia. This report, shared with other agencies, is currently under scrutiny.

The investigation revealed that foreign suspects, including Valentina Kumar, Tania Casatova, and Victoria Kovalenko, used fake identification documents to purchase Indian SIM cards, reportedly paying over ₹12,000 for each. The SIM cards were allegedly procured from Nepal. Two of these suspects have been arrested.

The EOW suspects that Torres Company operated a Ponzi scheme under the guise of a jewelry business. Evidence of tax evasion and money laundering has emerged. Arrested suspect Sarvesh Surve claimed he was a director and shareholder but denied involvement in the company’s operations. This claim is under investigation.

Fraud Scope and Online Activities:

The EOW is also examining Torres Company’s Instagram account, where misleading posts and videos continue to lure victims. The Cyber Cell is aiding in identifying the locations and individuals responsible for these activities. Three bank accounts linked to Torres Company have been frozen, with further efforts underway to seize additional assets.

Official estimates currently place the fraud at ₹23 crore. However, authorities suspect it could exceed ₹1,000 crore, given the increasing number of complaints.

Complaints and Seizures

DCP Sangramsingh Nishandar (EOW) confirmed that more than 350 complaint forms have been received so far. “Cash exceeding ₹3 crore, silver, stones, investment papers, and other valuables have been seized. Over 15 luxury cars were delivered to customers, with five more bookings still pending,” he stated, emphasizing that the investigation is ongoing.

A Look-Out Circular (LOC) has been issued against Victoria Kovalenko (38), a resident of Ukraine, and Mohammed Tausif Riyaz alias John Carter (33), a resident of Mumbai.

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Business

Mercedes-Benz Expands Electric Portfolio in India: G580 with EQ Technology and EQS SUV 450

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1 day ago

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January 9, 2025

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Mercedes-Benz has once again reaffirmed its dedication to electric mobility with the launch of two exclusive Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) in India: the G580 with EQ technology and the EQS SUV 450. These new additions further expand the company’s electric portfolio, offering luxury and sustainability options tailored to diverse customer needs.

Mercedes-Benz G580 with EQ technology Edition One is priced starting at INR 3 crore (all-India ex-showroom), offering a premium electric off-road experience. Meanwhile, the EQS SUV 450, a luxury electric SUV, is available at an introductory price of INR 1.28 crore (all-India ex-showroom), making it an accessible option in the high-end electric vehicle market.

Mercedes-Benz G580 with EQ technology

The Mercedes-Benz G580 with EQ technology will be launched exclusively in India as the Edition One, featuring a range of high-end specifications designed for both performance and luxury. Powered by four individually controlled electric motors, the vehicle delivers a combined output of 587 hp and 1,164 Nm of torque, allowing it to accelerate from 0 to 100 km/h in just 4.7 seconds.

The Edition One comes equipped with advanced features like the Burmester 3D surround sound system, MBUX NTG-7 with wireless Apple CarPlay and Android Auto, and Augmented Reality navigation. Its off-road capabilities are enhanced with technology such as G-TURN for tight maneuvers, G-STEERING for reduced turning radius, and intelligent off-road crawl functions.

Mercedes-Benz EQS SUV 450 4MATIC, locally manufactured at the brand’s state-of-the-art plant in Chakan, Pune, offers a luxurious and spacious 5-seat configuration designed for maximum comfort. Powered by two electric motors generating 360 hp and 800 Nm of torque, the SUV can accelerate from 0 to 100 km/h in just 6.1 seconds.

Mercedes-Benz EQS SUV 450 4MATIC

Mercedes-Benz EQS SUV 450 4MATIC, locally manufactured at the brand’s state-of-the-art plant in Chakan, Pune, offers a luxurious and spacious 5-seat configuration designed for maximum comfort. Powered by two electric motors generating 360 hp and 800 Nm of torque, the SUV can accelerate from 0 to 100 km/h in just 6.1 seconds.

The EQS SUV 450 is a full-size vehicle with a 3.2-meter wheelbase, providing ample space for rear passengers. It features a striking Electric Art Line exterior, 21-inch light-alloy wheels, and advanced technology such as the MBUX Hyperscreen with a 17.7-inch OLED central display.

Additionally, the EQS SUV 450 includes the Burmester 3D surround sound system and ENERGIZING AIR CONTROL Plus with a HEPA filter for enhanced air quality. Bookings for the EQS SUV 450 are now open, with deliveries expected to begin in February 2025, while the EQS SUV 580 has already sold out until April 2025.

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