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Nifty is due for a pause, may even ease in early part of 2022: Report

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Even after the GDP bounce-back off the low Covid-19 base, India can manage a 7.7 per cent expansion in FY23 and hence deliver growth that is almost unrivalled globally, UBS said in a report.

Yet, after a stellar two years for the Nifty where it even left the S&P behind at times (even in US Dollar terms), we believe the valuation does not fully reflect upcoming headwinds, the report said.

These include rising interest rates both globally and in India, and importantly, the return of India’s historic soft spot, current account deficits. “These headwinds may affect not only the country’s stock market but also the INR. We hence believe a multi-month pause is in order, the recent correction notwithstanding,” the report said.

“All told, within the space of two years, the current account is likely to swing from its surplus of 0.9 per cent of GDP towards a 1.9 per cent deficit, in our view. We believe this will bring down the INR. We look for USDINR to trade towards 79 levels by end-2022,” UBS said.

Another interesting and potentially bearish aspect is the lopsidedness of recent inflows that have kept the market afloat. They are now derived almost exclusively from domestic retail investors. However, the past has shown that this type of flows can stop when markets no longer exhibit a steady rise, and potentially higher bank deposit rates could become a potent competitor again when the RBI starts to hike interest rates, UBS said.

India’s stock market left most emerging markets and even developed markets counterparts in the dust during 2020 and especially 2021. That said, and the structural appeal of the Indian market notwithstanding, we believe in the near term the Nifty is due for a pause, and may even ease in the early part of 2022, UBS said.

“A key reason is indeed the still lofty valuation premium. We expect this process to continue. The earnings growth of 28.3 per cent for FY22 and 11.7 per cent for FY23 works as a partial counter-force and will likely help to prevent a strong correction. At the same time, we stress that as is often the case, consensus estimates look implausibly high to us”, UBS said.

Still, financials should come to the fore on the back of rising loan growth, coupled with expanding interest margins. We also like cyclical names in the vehicle, cement and construction space. We believe materials stocks on multi-year high valuations will likely underperform as some supply tightness eases, the report said.

In our estimate, the central bank will likely start to slightly tighten policy measures from March and subsequently raise its repo rate around September, followed by a second rate hike later during the year to arrive at 4.5 per cent, the report said.

During the early part of the pandemic, exports held up reasonably well while imports plummeted. Yet, for FY23, we expect only small export growth while imports should come roaring back as the economy reopens further and oil prices are rising.

Business

Maharashtra Minister Nitesh Rane Announces AI Project For Mango, Cashew Farming In Sindhudurg With 400 Farmers In Pilot Phase

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Mumbai, March 27: Maharashtra Fisheries and Ports Minister Nitesh Rane on Friday announced that an Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based project will be implemented to enhance mango and cashew cultivation in Sindhudurg district.

Initially, 400 farmers—200 each cultivating mango and cashew—will be selected for the pilot phase. The project aims to digitise farms by collecting basic data such as farmers’ names, contact details and village information. Based on the success of the initial phase, the initiative will be expanded to include more farmers.

The proposal was presented by experts from ADT Krishi Vigyan Kendra Baramati in the presence of agricultural scientists and officials, including representatives from Dr Balasaheb Sawant Konkan Krishi Vidyapeeth.

Under the project, sensors will be installed to monitor soil health, crop conditions and yield patterns. Farmers will receive training and awareness about AI technology through group-based sessions conducted over a 150-day initial phase.

The use of drones for pesticide spraying is expected to significantly reduce time from several days to just a few hours, ensuring quicker and more effective disease control. Additionally, AI-based predictive models will help detect crop diseases in advance, reducing excessive pesticide use and curbing black marketing.

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Retail petrol and diesel prices won’t change, excise cut to offset oil firms’ losses: Govt

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New Delhi, March 27: The government on Friday said retail pump prices of petrol and diesel will not change, and the excise reduction is not being passed on as a price cut at the pump.

Instead, it directly reduces the under-recoveries being absorbed by public sector oil marketing companies (OMCs) — Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation — who have continued to supply fuel to Indian consumers at prices well below their cost of supply, the Petroleum Ministry said.

At current international crude prices, under-recoveries stand at approximately Rs 26 per litre on petrol and Rs 81.90 per litre on diesel.

The combined daily under-recovery being absorbed by OMCs is approximately Rs 2,400 crore.

The excise reduction offsets Rs 10 per litre of these losses, ensuring OMCs can continue to supply fuel without disruption while keeping retail prices unchanged, said the ministry.

The government has reduced excise duty by Rs 10 per litre on both petrol and diesel with immediate effect.

“This decision has been taken in response to the steep and rapid rise in international crude oil prices, which have surged from approximately $70 per barrel to around $122 per barrel over the past month — an increase of nearly 75 per cent in under four weeks, driven by the ongoing conflict in West Asia and associated disruptions to global energy supply chains,” the ministry said.

The contrast with global fuel markets is instructive. Fuel prices have risen by 30 to 50 per cent across South and South-East Asian countries, 30 per cent in North America, and 20 per cent in Europe since the onset of the current crisis. India has held the line. That stability carries a fiscal cost, and the government has chosen to bear it.

Earlier in the day, Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas, Hardeep Singh Puri, said that Prime Minister Narendra Modi decided to take a hit on government finances to safeguard the Indian citizen.

“The government has taken a substantial impact on its taxation revenues to reduce the high losses being faced by oil marketing companies at this time of sky-high international prices,” he mentioned.

Alongside the excise reduction, the government has simultaneously introduced an export levy on diesel. At a time when international diesel prices have surged sharply, the levy is designed to disincentivise exports and ensure that refinery output is directed first towards meeting domestic demand.

Keeping Indian pumps fully supplied takes precedence over export opportunities, however commercially attractive those may be at current global prices. The government will continue to monitor the evolving global energy situation and take all measures necessary to maintain supply stability and price protection for Indian consumers.

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Business

Sensex, Nifty slip in early trade amid global sell-off and oil volatility

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Mumbai, Domestic equity benchmarks opened sharply lower on Friday, tracking weak global cues and elevated Brent crude prices amid fading hopes of a resolution to the Iran conflict.

Nifty opened at 23,173.55, down 132.90 points or 0.57 per cent, while the Sensex fell around 400 points to 74,883.79 in early trade.

Broader markets also remained under pressure, with midcap and smallcap indices traded lower.

Sectorally, most indices traded in the red, led by realty, metal, PSU banks and auto stocks, which fell up to 1 per cent. Financials and consumer durables also witnessed selling pressure.

However, IT and oil and gas stocks bucked the trend and posted modest gains.

Among heavyweights, stocks such as HDFC Bank and Bajaj Finance were among the top laggards.

Market sentiment remained cautious amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. US President Donald Trump said the pause on attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure would be extended, though uncertainty persists after Iran termed a US proposal “one-sided”.

Global markets also reflected a risk-off mood. US indices ended sharply lower, with the S&P 500 down 1.74 per cent and Nasdaq falling 2.38 per cent. Asian markets followed suit, with Japan’s Nikkei declining over 1 per cent and South Korea’s Kospi dropping around 3 per cent.

Crude oil prices remained volatile, although they eased slightly, with Brent crude falling 2.29 per cent to $105.53 per barrel, while WTI crude declined 2.54 per cent to $92.08.

According to analysts, markets are likely to remain volatile amid global uncertainties. Immediate support for Nifty is seen in the 23,050–23,000 zone, while resistance is placed around 23,450–23,500.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued to remain net sellers, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) provided support to the market.

Notably, Indian markets resumed trading on Friday after a holiday on Thursday on account of Ram Navami.

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