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Nifty is due for a pause, may even ease in early part of 2022: Report

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Even after the GDP bounce-back off the low Covid-19 base, India can manage a 7.7 per cent expansion in FY23 and hence deliver growth that is almost unrivalled globally, UBS said in a report.

Yet, after a stellar two years for the Nifty where it even left the S&P behind at times (even in US Dollar terms), we believe the valuation does not fully reflect upcoming headwinds, the report said.

These include rising interest rates both globally and in India, and importantly, the return of India’s historic soft spot, current account deficits. “These headwinds may affect not only the country’s stock market but also the INR. We hence believe a multi-month pause is in order, the recent correction notwithstanding,” the report said.

“All told, within the space of two years, the current account is likely to swing from its surplus of 0.9 per cent of GDP towards a 1.9 per cent deficit, in our view. We believe this will bring down the INR. We look for USDINR to trade towards 79 levels by end-2022,” UBS said.

Another interesting and potentially bearish aspect is the lopsidedness of recent inflows that have kept the market afloat. They are now derived almost exclusively from domestic retail investors. However, the past has shown that this type of flows can stop when markets no longer exhibit a steady rise, and potentially higher bank deposit rates could become a potent competitor again when the RBI starts to hike interest rates, UBS said.

India’s stock market left most emerging markets and even developed markets counterparts in the dust during 2020 and especially 2021. That said, and the structural appeal of the Indian market notwithstanding, we believe in the near term the Nifty is due for a pause, and may even ease in the early part of 2022, UBS said.

“A key reason is indeed the still lofty valuation premium. We expect this process to continue. The earnings growth of 28.3 per cent for FY22 and 11.7 per cent for FY23 works as a partial counter-force and will likely help to prevent a strong correction. At the same time, we stress that as is often the case, consensus estimates look implausibly high to us”, UBS said.

Still, financials should come to the fore on the back of rising loan growth, coupled with expanding interest margins. We also like cyclical names in the vehicle, cement and construction space. We believe materials stocks on multi-year high valuations will likely underperform as some supply tightness eases, the report said.

In our estimate, the central bank will likely start to slightly tighten policy measures from March and subsequently raise its repo rate around September, followed by a second rate hike later during the year to arrive at 4.5 per cent, the report said.

During the early part of the pandemic, exports held up reasonably well while imports plummeted. Yet, for FY23, we expect only small export growth while imports should come roaring back as the economy reopens further and oil prices are rising.

National

Ashish Shelar Orders Timely Honorarium Disbursal And SOP Reinforcement For Senior Folk Artists

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Cultural Affairs Minister Adv. Ashish Shelar on Tuesday directed the department to re-communicate instructions to all District Collectors regarding the Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for disbursal of honorarium to senior folk artists. He also instructed that every senior artist must receive a written response to their application within the prescribed timeframe.

A review meeting was held at Mantralaya to assess the remuneration process for senior artists, during which Cultural Affairs Minister Ashish Shelar issued key directives. The application process for this year’s honorarium disbursal began today.

Noting that several complaints are received annually regarding delays and inconsistencies, the Minister instructed the Director of Cultural Affairs to ensure time-bound redressal of all grievances. He emphasized that every senior artist must receive a written response to their application within the stipulated timeframe to build trust and transparency in the system.

Minister Shelar also pointed out that the formation of remuneration committees for senior artists is still pending in many districts. In light of this, he stressed the need to re-communicate the Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) to all District Collectors to ensure uniformity and accountability in the implementation of the honorarium process across the state.

Deputy Secretary of the Cultural Affairs Department Mahesh Vavhal, Director of the Directorate of Cultural Affairs Bibhishan Chavare, Joint Director Shriram Pande, and other senior officials were present on the occasion.

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Ravindra Chavan, Trusted Lieutenant Of Maharashtra CM Devendra Fadnavis, Appointed BJP State Unit President

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Mumbai: Ravindra Chavan, known as a trusted lieutenant of Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, will take over as BJP’s state unit president on Tuesday.

The incumbent, Revenue Minister Chandrashekhar Bawankule, will hand over charge at a party conclave in Mumbai. The mantle is being handed to Chavan, whose grassroots planning ensured BJP’s impressive electoral performance in Thane and the Konkan belt, with an eye on the coming elections to the local bodies, according to party sources.

Chavan was the only candidate who filed his nomination papers on Monday at BJP state headquarters in the presence of Fadnavis, Bawankule and the party’s Maharashtra in-charge Arun Singh. Union minister Kiren Rijiju was present as the central observer.

Chavan represents Dombivali for the fourth term in the Assembly. He was a member of the Fadnavis cabinet between 2014 and 2019 and the Eknath Shinde-led government from 2022 to 2024. There was speculation of his elevation to the key party post started when he was denied a Cabinet berth after last year’s Assembly elections. He has been officiating as the working president of the state unit for the last few months.

The BJP is eyeing maximum number of municipal bodies in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) comprising 8 municipal corporations. With the elevation of Chavan, known for his aggressive politics, BJP seems to be sending out a message to deputy CM Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, which is likely to ask for lion’s share of seats for the civic polls. As an experienced leader, Chavan will shoulder his responsibilities with vigour and strength, Fadnavis asserted.

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Hyderabad Chemical Factory Blast: Death Toll Rises To 32 After 15 Succumb Overnight

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Hyderabad: The death toll in the explosion in a pharmaceutical unit at Pashamylaram near Hyderabad rose sharply to 32 on Tuesday, with about 15 injured succumbing at hospitals overnight.

The death toll in the worst industrial disaster in Telangana may go up further as the rescue workers continued searching for the bodies in the debris of a three-storey building, which collapsed under the impact of the blast.

A massive explosion had rocked Sigachi Industries Limited’s pharmaceutical factory at Pashamylaram industrial area in Sangareddy district, about 50 km from Hyderabad, on Monday morning.

The explosion in the Microcrystalline Cellulose (MCC) drying unit also left 35 workers injured. The condition of 11 of them is stated to be critical.

According to officials, 27 workers were still missing. They were feared trapped under the debris.

Personnel of the State Disaster Response Force (SDRF), Hyderabad Disaster Response and Asset Protection Agency (HYDRAA), Revenue and police continued clearing debris.

The majority of the victims were migrant workers from states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Odisha.

As many as 108 workers were at the factory at the time of the blast, which could be heard about five km away. The explosion triggered a huge fire, and 15 fire engines were used to douse the flames.

According to eye-witnesses, such was the impact of the explosion that workers were tossed in the air and fell several meters away.

As the bodies of some victims were blown to pieces or charred beyond recognition, the authorities were conducting DNA tests to establish their identity.

Chief Minister A. Revanth Reddy will be visiting the accident site on Tuesday. He will also call on the injured at a government hospital.

Health Minister Damodar Raja Narasimha told media persons at the spot on Monday that the cause of the explosion was not yet known. The company, which is 40-45 years old, manufactures Microcrystalline Cellulose, he said.

Labour Minister G. Vivek said prima facie it was not a reactor blast. Some problem in the air dryer system is believed to have resulted in the explosion and fire.

The state government appointed a high-powered committee to probe the disaster and its underlying causes.

The committer comprises the Chief Secretary, Special Chief Secretary (Disaster Management), Principal Secretary (Labour), Principal Secretary (Health) and Additional DGP (Fire Services).

According to the Chief Minister’s Office, the panel would also make recommendations to prevent the recurrence of such accidents.

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