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Nifty is due for a pause, may even ease in early part of 2022: Report

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Even after the GDP bounce-back off the low Covid-19 base, India can manage a 7.7 per cent expansion in FY23 and hence deliver growth that is almost unrivalled globally, UBS said in a report.

Yet, after a stellar two years for the Nifty where it even left the S&P behind at times (even in US Dollar terms), we believe the valuation does not fully reflect upcoming headwinds, the report said.

These include rising interest rates both globally and in India, and importantly, the return of India’s historic soft spot, current account deficits. “These headwinds may affect not only the country’s stock market but also the INR. We hence believe a multi-month pause is in order, the recent correction notwithstanding,” the report said.

“All told, within the space of two years, the current account is likely to swing from its surplus of 0.9 per cent of GDP towards a 1.9 per cent deficit, in our view. We believe this will bring down the INR. We look for USDINR to trade towards 79 levels by end-2022,” UBS said.

Another interesting and potentially bearish aspect is the lopsidedness of recent inflows that have kept the market afloat. They are now derived almost exclusively from domestic retail investors. However, the past has shown that this type of flows can stop when markets no longer exhibit a steady rise, and potentially higher bank deposit rates could become a potent competitor again when the RBI starts to hike interest rates, UBS said.

India’s stock market left most emerging markets and even developed markets counterparts in the dust during 2020 and especially 2021. That said, and the structural appeal of the Indian market notwithstanding, we believe in the near term the Nifty is due for a pause, and may even ease in the early part of 2022, UBS said.

“A key reason is indeed the still lofty valuation premium. We expect this process to continue. The earnings growth of 28.3 per cent for FY22 and 11.7 per cent for FY23 works as a partial counter-force and will likely help to prevent a strong correction. At the same time, we stress that as is often the case, consensus estimates look implausibly high to us”, UBS said.

Still, financials should come to the fore on the back of rising loan growth, coupled with expanding interest margins. We also like cyclical names in the vehicle, cement and construction space. We believe materials stocks on multi-year high valuations will likely underperform as some supply tightness eases, the report said.

In our estimate, the central bank will likely start to slightly tighten policy measures from March and subsequently raise its repo rate around September, followed by a second rate hike later during the year to arrive at 4.5 per cent, the report said.

During the early part of the pandemic, exports held up reasonably well while imports plummeted. Yet, for FY23, we expect only small export growth while imports should come roaring back as the economy reopens further and oil prices are rising.

Business

Sensex crosses 81,000 Mark, Nifty Jumps 157 Points On Strong Metal & Auto Stocks

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Mumbai: The Indian stock market ended Monday on a strong note, with the BSE Sensex rising 418.81 points (0.52%) to close at 81,018.72, crossing the key 81,000 mark. During the day, it touched a high of 81,093.19. The NSE Nifty also surged by 157.40 points (0.64%) to end at 24,722.75, after hitting an intraday high of 24,734.65.

Top gainers and losers

Among major gainers on the Sensex were Tata Steel, BEL, Adani Ports, TCS, Tech Mahindra, Bharti Airtel, HCL Tech, Trent, M&M, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement and L&T.

On the flip side, Power Grid, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Hindustan Unilever ended the session with losses.

Why the market rallied

The market’s rally was mainly driven by strong performances in the metal and auto sectors. According to experts, a weakening US dollar, strong auto sales, and positive Q1 results from key companies helped boost investor confidence.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, said,

“Consumption-driven companies are showing recovery in volume demand. Also, weak US job data may lead to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.”

Global cues positive

Asian markets mostly ended in the green with Hong Kong, South Korea, and China posting gains. However, Japan’s Nikkei closed in red.

European markets were trading positively, while US markets had ended lower on Friday.

Oil prices also slipped, with Brent crude falling 1.15% to USD 68.87 per barrel.

Meanwhile, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold shares worth Rs 3,366.40 crore on Friday, as per exchange data.

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Business

India Lost ₹22,842 Crore To Cybercriminals & Fraudsters In 2024: DataLEADS

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India lost Rs 22,842 crore to cybercriminals and fraudsters in 2024, DataLEADS, a Delhi-based media and tech company, said in its report on widespread digital financial frauds in the country. The amount stolen by digital criminals and fraudsters last year was nearly three times more than the Rs 7,465 crore in 2023 and almost 10 times more than the Rs 2,306 in 2022, DataLEADS said in ‘Contours of Cybercrime: Persistent and Emerging Risk of Online Financial Frauds and Deepfakes in India.

Prediction For Cyber-Crime Frauds

The Indian Cybercrime Coordination Centre, I4C, a federal agency that liaises between state and central law enforcement, predicts Indians will lose over Rs 1.2 lakh crore this year. The number of cybercrime complaints has spiked similarly; nearly twenty lakh were reported in 2024, up from around 15.6 lakh the year before and ten times more than were logged in 2019.

The surge in the number of cybercrime complaints and the volume of money lost points to one inescapable conclusion – India’s digital crooks are getting smarter and more efficient, and, in a country with a staggering nearly 290 lakh unemployed people, their ranks are increasing.

Bank-related frauds have increased dramatically; the Reserve Bank of India reported a nearly eightfold jump in the first half of FY 2025/26 compared to the same period last year. And the amount of money lost was staggering – Rs 2,623 crore to Rs 21,367 crore. Private sector banks accounted for nearly 60 per cent of all such incidents. But it was customers in public sector banks who were worst-hit; they lost Rs 25,667 crore in all.

Why have these numbers jumped so much over the past three years?

Because of the increased use of digital payment modes – i.e., smartphone-enabled services like Paytm and PhonePe – and the sharing and processing of financial details online – via (what many believe are encrypted and fail-safe) messaging platforms like WhatsApp and Telegram.

Federal data says there were over 190 lakh UPI, or unified payment interface, transactions in June 2025 alone, and these were worth a combined Rs 24.03 lakh crore. Digital payments’ value has grown from roughly Rs 162 crore in 2013 to Rs 18,120.82 crore in January 2025, and India accounts for nearly half of all such payments worldwide.

COVID-19

Much of this increase can be attributed to the pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns.

During COVID-19, the government pushed for a switch to UPI apps like Paytm to ensure social distancing and minimise contact with currency notes, via which the virus could be transmitted.

Digital Payment Tools In Rural Areas

The government also reasoned that digital payment tools would ensure greater penetration of financial services, particularly in rural areas. By 2019, India already had 440 million smartphone users and data rates were among the cheapest in the world – 1 GB cost Rs 200, or less than $3.

Insurance sector scams were also common. These included life, health, vehicle, and general, and are becoming an increasingly lucrative option for cybercriminals, particularly as insurance companies urge customers to opt for app-based services.

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Mukesh Ambani Planning To Introduce ₹52,200 Crore Worth IPO, Reliance To List Jio Infocomm In Stock Market

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Reliance Industries Limited (RIL), led by the country’s richest man Mukesh Ambani, is planning to bring the biggest IPO ever. RIL is preparing to list its telecom business, Jio Infocomm, in the stock market. This IPO can be worth Rs 52,200 crore (about $6 billion).

Reliance Starts Informal Talks With SEBI

According to a Bloomberg report, Reliance has started informal talks with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to get approval to sell just 5% stake in Jio. If this approval is received, this IPO will break the record of Hyundai Motor India’s Rs 28,000 crore IPO.

Actually, under the current rules of SEBI, companies have to sell at least a 25% stake for public float. But Reliance has told SEBI that the Indian market does not have the capacity to bear such a big offer. Therefore, the company is seeking an exemption to sell 5% stake.

When Will The IPO Launch?

According to Bloomberg sources, this IPO can be launched in the early months of next year, although its size and timing will depend on the market situation. If this plan is successful, it will be the country’s largest IPO.

Jio’s IPO will give an opportunity to big foreign investors like Meta Platforms and Alphabet Inc. (Google) to sell their stake. In 2020, both these companies invested more than $20 billion in Jio Platforms. During this period, Jio’s valuation was $58 billion.

Which Other Investors Have Invested In Jio?

Apart from this, investors like KKR, General Atlantic, and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority have also invested heavily in Jio. Market experts say that Jio’s valuation can be more than $100 billion. However, Reliance wants to increase its income and subscriber base further before the IPO so that the valuation can be increased further.

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