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Macro-data to dictate market trend; high valuations a concern

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Ongoing quarterly results season, along with the release of macro-economic data on industrial output and inflation, will determine the trajectory of the key Indian equity indices in the week ahead.

Besides, market experts expressed concern over high valuations as well as global cues impacting FPI inflows.

However, healthy quarterly earnings combined with production growth and normalisation of supply chains will keep investors’ sentiments high.

“FPI selling has abated for the time being. However, we need positive FPI flows for the markets to keep rising from here,” said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities

“A 17,613-17,757 band is crucial on the downside, while a breach of 18,013 could lead to more upsides.”

On Thursday, during the hour-long ‘Mahurat Trade Session’, FIIs sold Rs 328.11 crore worth of stocks on the BSE, NSE and MSEI in the capital market segment.

In terms of corporate earnings, Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Retail Research, Broking & Distribution, Motilal Oswal Financial Services said: “Companies have largely delivered in line with expectation. Most companies have indicated of recovery in demand as the economy opened up although higher commodity and energy prices have exerted downward pressure on margins.”

“Companies have taken price hikes to pass on the impact of commodity costs, and the impact of it on demand remains to be seen. However, valuations are still at a premium and would demand consistent earning delivery going ahead. Thus market might continue to remain under pressure till valuations get reasonable and global cues improve.”

Furthermore, companies such as Motherson Sumi Systems, Britannia Industries, Bharat Heavy Electricals, IDFC, Indraprastha Gas, Mahindra & Mahindra, MRF, Power Grid, Coal India, Hero MotoCorp and Hindalco are expected to release their Q2 earning results in the coming week.

Apart from Q2 results, investors will look forward to the macro-economic data of IIP (Index of Industrial Production) and Consumer Price Index (CPI).

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) is slated to release the macro-economic data points of IIP and CPI on November 12.

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services: “On a near to medium basis, investors should focus on defensive sectors in anticipation of higher market volatility.”

“Sectors such as tourism, capital goods & infra due to the fiscal push and power (renewables) and manufacturing sectors that are bound to benefit from the full-reopening of the economy should be under the investors’ radar.”

In addition, Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart said: “FIIs’ behaviour along with inflation numbers from the US and China will remain key factors for the next week.”

“After an extended weekend, Indian markets are likely to start a fresh week with a positive note on the global backdrop, however there is a risk of selling pressure at higher levels as we are underperforming the global peers where the near term texture has changed to ‘sell on rise’ from ‘buy on dip’.”

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Gold, silver prices fall over 1 pc amid rising US inflation concerns

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Mumbai, May 20: Gold and silver prices declined sharply on Wednesday, with both precious metals falling over 1 per cent amid rising concerns over higher US interest rates.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (June 5) declined as much as 0.7 per cent or Rs 1,121 to hit an intraday low of Rs 1,57,959 as of 11:17 am. The yellow metal was trading at Rs 1,58,369, down 0.45 per cent or Rs 711. It touched an intraday high of Rs 1,60,378, rising 0.81 per cent or Rs 1,298, according to the exchange.

Meanwhile, silver futures (July 3) also witnessed selling pressure, slipping 1.21 per cent, or Rs 3,269, to Rs 2,66,850, its intraday low so far. The white metal was trading at Rs 2,68,970, down 0.43 per cent or Rs 1,149. It recorded an intraday high of Rs 2,69,605, lower by 0.19 per cent or Rs 514.

Earlier in the day, gold and silver opened on the MCX at Rs 1,58,974 and Rs 2,67,230, respectively.

In the international market as well, precious metals were trading lower. COMEX gold declined 0.49 per cent to $4,462 per ounce, while COMEX silver slipped 0.17 per cent to $73.868 per ounce.

According to commodity market experts, gold prices remained under pressure as investors assessed rising inflation risks and the possibility of higher US interest rates.

They noted that geopolitical tensions also continued to weigh on sentiment after US President Donald Trump warned that Washington could resume strikes on Iran within “two or three days” if Tehran failed to accept Washington’s peace terms.

The ongoing conflict has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing crude oil prices higher and intensifying global inflationary pressures.

Analysts added that rising inflation concerns have reduced expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts while increasing speculation around possible rate hikes later this year.

For silver, experts said the metal has additionally erased recent gains that were supported by optimism around AI-linked stocks and rising demand from data-centre infrastructure expansion.

Meanwhile, domestic stock markets opened lower on Wednesday, with benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty trading in negative territory during early trade.

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Petrol Crosses ₹107 In Mumbai After Second Fuel Price Hike In A Week Amid Iran Conflict; Diesel Rises To ₹94

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Mumbai: Residents of Mumbai are facing another increase in fuel prices after oil marketing companies on Tuesday raised petrol and diesel rates for the second time within a week amid rising global crude oil prices linked to the ongoing Iran conflict. With the latest revision, petrol prices in Mumbai have climbed by 91 paise to Rs 107.59 per litre, while diesel has become costlier by 94 paise and is now retailing at Rs 94.08 per litre.

The latest increase comes just three days after fuel prices were raised by Rs 3 per litre on Friday, majorly increasing transportation and commuting costs for Mumbaikars already dealing with inflationary pressure. The fresh hike is largely driven by the sharp surge in international crude oil prices due to tensions in West Asia, particularly disruptions linked to the conflict involving Iran.

According to data released by the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell under the Petroleum Ministry, the average price of India’s crude oil basket has jumped from USD 69.01 per barrel in February 2026 to USD 110.73 per barrel as of May 15, an increase of over 60 per cent in less than three months.

The situation has been worsened by disruptions in cargo movement through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a major share of India’s crude oil imports traditionally passes. India imports more than 85 per cent of its crude oil requirements, making domestic fuel prices highly sensitive to global market fluctuations.

Mumbai, being one of the country’s largest metropolitan and commercial hubs, is likely to feel the impact more sharply due to its heavy dependence on road transport, logistics and daily commuting.

Taxi operators, app-based cab drivers and transporters have already started expressing concern over the rising operational costs. The repeated hikes are also expected to affect prices of essential goods and services, as transportation expenses rise across the supply chain.

Another factor contributing to the price rise is the weakening of the Indian rupee against the US dollar. With the rupee reportedly touching around 96 against the dollar, oil imports have become more expensive for Indian refiners and oil companies.

Despite the earlier Rs 3 increase, oil marketing companies were reportedly still facing losses after maintaining older fuel rates for nearly 10 weeks amid continuously rising global crude prices. It is also speculated that if geopolitical tensions in West Asia continue or escalate further, Mumbai and other major Indian cities could witness additional fuel price increases in the coming weeks.

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Panic Buying In Palghar Amid Fuel Shortage Rumours: Long Queue Seen At Petrol Pump Along Mumbai-Ahmedabad Highway

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Palghar: Long queues of vehicles, especially two-wheelers, were seen at petrol pumps along the Mumbai-Ahmedabad National Highway amid rumours of a fuel shortage. The motorists claimed that they were waiting for more than an hour to refill their vehicles.

the scenes were captured at the Asian Petrol Pump in Charoti, where long queues of vehicles stretched outside the fuel station as residents feared limited fuel availability. Not just this, the report also claimed that several petrol pumps across Palghar district reportedly witnessed similar crowds, with panic buying increasing after rumours of fuel supply disruptions.

Meanwhile, the alleged rumours triggered people amid Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent appeal to citizens to reduce fuel consumption and adopt sustainable practices to help the country manage global economic disruptions.

Earlier on May 15, a similar scene was witnessed along the Maharashtra-Gujarat border, where long queues of vehicles were seen at several petrol pumps, as people rushed to fill petrol and diesel before the revised fuel rates came into effect. Visuals showed all kinds of vehicles, including trucks, cars, motorcycles and other commercial vehicles, lined up outside fuel stations, leading to heavy rush and congestion near the pumps.

Meanwhile, a similar incident was reported in Akola, where a scuffle broke out among farmers at a petrol pump over alleged fuel unavailability. Visuals showed several men fighting while standing in a crowded queue at the fuel station.

On May 10, PM Modi appealed to people to increasingly use public transport systems, including metro services, and adopt environmentally responsible practices to reduce pressure on fuel consumption and foreign exchange outflows.

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