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Macro-data to dictate market trend; high valuations a concern

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Ongoing quarterly results season, along with the release of macro-economic data on industrial output and inflation, will determine the trajectory of the key Indian equity indices in the week ahead.

Besides, market experts expressed concern over high valuations as well as global cues impacting FPI inflows.

However, healthy quarterly earnings combined with production growth and normalisation of supply chains will keep investors’ sentiments high.

“FPI selling has abated for the time being. However, we need positive FPI flows for the markets to keep rising from here,” said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities

“A 17,613-17,757 band is crucial on the downside, while a breach of 18,013 could lead to more upsides.”

On Thursday, during the hour-long ‘Mahurat Trade Session’, FIIs sold Rs 328.11 crore worth of stocks on the BSE, NSE and MSEI in the capital market segment.

In terms of corporate earnings, Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Retail Research, Broking & Distribution, Motilal Oswal Financial Services said: “Companies have largely delivered in line with expectation. Most companies have indicated of recovery in demand as the economy opened up although higher commodity and energy prices have exerted downward pressure on margins.”

“Companies have taken price hikes to pass on the impact of commodity costs, and the impact of it on demand remains to be seen. However, valuations are still at a premium and would demand consistent earning delivery going ahead. Thus market might continue to remain under pressure till valuations get reasonable and global cues improve.”

Furthermore, companies such as Motherson Sumi Systems, Britannia Industries, Bharat Heavy Electricals, IDFC, Indraprastha Gas, Mahindra & Mahindra, MRF, Power Grid, Coal India, Hero MotoCorp and Hindalco are expected to release their Q2 earning results in the coming week.

Apart from Q2 results, investors will look forward to the macro-economic data of IIP (Index of Industrial Production) and Consumer Price Index (CPI).

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) is slated to release the macro-economic data points of IIP and CPI on November 12.

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services: “On a near to medium basis, investors should focus on defensive sectors in anticipation of higher market volatility.”

“Sectors such as tourism, capital goods & infra due to the fiscal push and power (renewables) and manufacturing sectors that are bound to benefit from the full-reopening of the economy should be under the investors’ radar.”

In addition, Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart said: “FIIs’ behaviour along with inflation numbers from the US and China will remain key factors for the next week.”

“After an extended weekend, Indian markets are likely to start a fresh week with a positive note on the global backdrop, however there is a risk of selling pressure at higher levels as we are underperforming the global peers where the near term texture has changed to ‘sell on rise’ from ‘buy on dip’.”

Business

Sensex, Nifty open higher as geopolitical tensions ease

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Mumbai, April 16: The Indian stock markets opened on a higher note on Thursday, with the equity benchmarks mirroring global cues amid hopes of easing geopolitical tensions between Washington and Tehran.

Sensex opened 566 points or 0.73 per cent higher at 78,677 in opening trade, while Nifty began the session at 24,385, up 154 points or 0.64 per cent. Sectorally, gains were led by realty, media, consumer durables and financial stocks.

Category-wise, small-cap and mid-cap stocks were the top gainers, with the Nifty Smallcap 100, Nifty Smallcap 250 and Nifty Midcap 100 rising up to 1 per cent in early trade.

On Wednesday, FIIs remained net buyers to the tune of approximately Rs 666 crore, while DIIs turned net sellers with outflows of around Rs 569 crore.

According to analysts, volatility could pick up again depending on global developments and upcoming triggers.

After the recent sharp rally, the market may witness some consolidation or profit booking at higher levels, they added.

In contrast, oil commodities traded on a firm note, with Brent crude futures at $94.92 per barrel, down 0.03 per cent, while US WTI crude traded at $91.52, up 0.25 per cent.

On the global front, both US and Asian markets showed positive momentum. Japan’s Nikkei was trading over 2 per cent higher, Hang Seng climbed more than 1 per cent, and South Korea’s KOSPI was up about 2 per cent.

In the US overnight, Wall Street’s major indices — the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq — ended 0.80 per cent and 1.6 per cent higher, respectively.

Meanwhile, the US President said that China is ‘very happy’ with the permanent opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

“I am doing it for them also – and the world. This situation will never happen again. They have agreed not to send weapons to Iran,” he said on his social media platform, Truth Social.

However, the war has resulted in the largest-ever disruption of global oil and gas supplies by choking traffic through the strait, pushing crude prices to nearly $120 per barrel.

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Business

Gold holds steady amid easing US-Iran tensions; silver gains on MCX

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Mumbai, Gold prices remained largely steady on Wednesday as improving prospects of easing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran kept investor sentiment in check.

During early trade, MCX gold May futures were marginally higher by 0.02 per cent at Rs 1,53,305 per 10 grams.

Commenting on gold technical outlook, experts said that a sustained move above Rs 1,55,000 could revive momentum toward Rs 1,57,000-Rs 1,58,000.

“On the downside, a break below Rs 1,54,000 may lead to a corrective move toward Rs 1,52,000 and further to Rs 1,50,000,” an analyst stated.

Silver prices, however, saw stronger buying interest, with MCX silver May futures rising 0.83 per cent to Rs 2,54,842 per kg.

“Resistance is placed at Rs 2,60,000–Rs 2,63,000, with further upside toward Rs 2,68,000–Rs 2,70,000,” a market expert said.

“A sustained move above these levels could strengthen momentum and support further gains. On the downside, a break below Rs 2,48,000 may lead to a corrective move toward the Rs 2,44,000–Rs 2,40,000 range,” as per an analyst.

In the previous session, gold had ended flat at Rs 1,53,216 per 10 grams, while silver futures slipped 0.1 per cent to Rs 2,25,499 per kg.

Globally, the yellow metal held on to its recent gains amid optimism that Washington and Tehran could move towards a negotiated settlement to the conflict that began on February 28.

The easing of tensions has reduced fears of a sharp energy-supply shock, which had earlier raised concerns about inflationary pressures.

Spot gold hovered near $4,850 an ounce after rising as much as 0.6 per cent during the session. The metal had surged over 2 per cent in the previous trading session on expectations that the US and Iran may soon hold a second round of ceasefire talks.

US President Donald Trump has indicated that negotiations could resume “over the next two days,” further boosting hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough.

Despite the recent stability, gold has faced pressure in recent weeks, falling nearly 8 per cent since the conflict began.

Early in the crisis, a liquidity squeeze prompted investors to offload bullion holdings to cover losses in other asset classes.

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Business

Indian stock market in positive territory, overall sentiment remains balanced

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Mumbai, The Indian stock markets witnessed a strong rebound last week after six consecutive weeks of decline, supported by favourable global cues, according to analysts.

Sentiment remained buoyant amid optimism surrounding a temporary US–Iran ceasefire, although lingering geopolitical uncertainties capped the pace of gains as the week progressed.

“The rally was further aided by a stable domestic macro backdrop, with broader markets outperforming the benchmarks. Despite elevated volatility marked by sharp mid-week gains and subsequent profit booking, indices trended higher,” said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.

The Nifty and Sensex gained around 6 per cent to close near the week’s highs at 24,050.60 and 77,550.25, respectively.

According to analysts, global developments remained a key influence, with the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran improving risk appetite, though uncertainty around its sustainability persisted.

Meanwhile, a sharp decline in crude oil prices below the $100 mark eased domestic concerns and triggered a strong rebound across markets.

On the domestic front, the RBI maintained the repo rate at 5.25 per cent and retained a neutral stance, highlighting the need to balance inflation risks with growth support.

The central bank also revised FY26 GDP growth upward to 7.6 per cent while projecting FY27 growth at 6.9 per cent.

Inflation projections were raised to 4.6 per cent for FY27, reflecting risks from elevated energy prices and potential weather-related disruptions.

Market watchers said that overall sentiment remains balanced but cautious, shaped by global cues, crude oil price movements and ongoing foreign investor activity.

Downside appears to be relatively contained, but upside momentum remains constrained, pointing to a recovery that is still tentative and low in conviction, they added.

Economic indicators showed signs of moderation, with the Services PMI easing to 57.5 and the Composite PMI to 57.0 in March.

However, global agencies remained constructive, with the World Bank raising India’s growth outlook, supported by strong domestic demand and structural factors, said analysts.

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