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Macquarie says no signs of headwinds abating at Paytm

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Paytm. (Photo: Twitter/@Paytm)

 Foreign brokerage Macquarie said on Monday there is no signs of headwinds abating at Paytm as it slashed the target price to Rs 900.

One 97 Communications or Paytm stock was down almost 5.95 per cent on Monday at Rs 1,158.

Since November 18, 2021, Paytm’s stock price has fallen 40 per cent vs Sensex’s flat performance, Macquarie said.

Post the various business updates and results, Macquarie said revenue projections, particularly on the distribution side, is at risk and hence we pare down our revenue CAGR from 26 per cent to 2 per cent for FY21-26E.

“We are roughly cutting revenue estimates for FY21-26E on an average by 10 per cent every year due to lower distribution and commerce/cloud revenues offset partially by higher payment revenues. We cut our earnings (increase our loss projections) by 16-27 per cent for FY22-25E owing to lower revenues and higher employee and software expenses. We cut our TP sharply by 25 per cent owing to lower target multiple of 11.5x (Price to Sales ratio) (from 13.5x earlier) and lower sales numbers.”

Macquarie laid out several challenges which exist for Paytm from regulatory to business specific.

“‘The elephant in the room’- RBI’s proposed digital payments regulations could cap wallet charges. Payments business still forms 70 per cent of overall gross revenues for Paytm and hence any regulations capping charges could impact revenues significantly. Add to that, Paytm’s foray into insurance was recently rejected by the insurance regulator IRDA. We believe this could impact Paytm’s prospects of getting a banking license,” it added.

Senior management attrition is another cause of concern, it said. Senior executives have been resigning from Paytm which is a cause of concern and could impact business in our view if the current rate of attrition continues.

“Can it do lot of merchant loans? We aren’t sure,” Macquarie said.

“In the past 12 months, Paytm’s average ticket size for loans disbursed by it has been consistently coming down and stands at sub Rs 5,000 levels. At this size, we don’t think it is doing many merchant loans and most of the loans are small value BNPL loans. Hence the eventual distribution fees realised by them are likely to be much lower than our earlier estimates.

“We cut our revenue projections for FY22-26E and hence our CAGR reduces from 26 per cent to 23 per cent. The main reason is that we have pared down our commerce and particularly distribution business revenues.

“Competition will limit commerce revenue growth and distribution business will continue to be led by small ticket BNPL loans there by limiting revenue potential in our view.

“We cut our earnings projections or increase losses for FY22-26E driven by lower revenues and higher employee and software and cloud expenses. There is competition for tech talent, and we see pressure on employee expenses to remain. Key risks to our UP call are a change in regulations which allow monetisation of UPI and receipt of a banking license,” Macquarie added.

Business

Gold loans top retail credit market in India, account for 36 pc volume: Report

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New Delhi, March 31: Gold loans have emerged as the leading segment in India’s retail credit market, accounting for loan volumes at 36 per cent and around 40 per cent by value, driven by rising gold prices and increasing consumer preference for secured borrowing, a report said on Tuesday.

The report by TransUnion CIBIL showed that the surge has been supported by a sharp increase in ticket sizes, with the average gold loan amount rising significantly over the past two years to around Rs 1.9 lakh in the December 2025 quarter.

The report also noted that the consumer market indicator (CMI) — a major gauge of credit market health — rose to 102 in the December 2025 quarter, up from 97 a year ago and 100 in the preceding September quarter which is the third consecutive quarter of improvement.

It further highlighted that gold prices have encouraged consumers to unlock value from their holdings, leading to a strong rise in both loan demand and disbursements.

Notably, gold loans are witnessing expansion beyond their traditional stronghold in southern India, with faster growth now seen in northern and western states such as Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.

The segment is also attracting a more diverse borrower base, with over half of the loans being availed by prime and above-category customers, indicating growing acceptance of gold loans as a mainstream credit product.

The report noted that while credit supply eased following festive demand and GST-related momentum, the moderation reflects seasonal trends rather than a structural slowdown.

Demand for credit remained strong, particularly in semi-urban and rural areas, with non-metro regions accounting for 54 per cent of the total borrower base, up three percentage points year-on-year. The share of new-to-credit consumers also increased to 15 per cent.

Meanwhile, auto loans saw stable volumes during the post-festive period, supported by demand in the affordable mid-segment category, while supply in the segment rose on a daily average basis compared to the previous year.

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Business

Centre okays Berth redevelopment at New Mangalore Port to boost maritime efficiency

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New Delhi, March 30: The government has approved the proposal of New Mangalore Port Authority (NMPA) for the redevelopment of Berth No. 9 for handling liquid bulk cargo on a Public-Private Partnership (PPP) basis under the DBFOT model, it was announced on Monday.

The approval for implementation was conveyed on March 25, 2026, in a major step towards augmenting India’s port infrastructure and strengthening maritime logistics, according to the Minister of Ports, Shipping and Waterways.

With an estimated project cost of Rs 438.29 crore, the redevelopment will be undertaken by a private concessionaire selected through an open competitive bidding process (single-stage, two-envelope system).

The project will have a capacity of 10.90 MTPA, and the concessionaire will commit to a Minimum Guaranteed Cargo (MGC) of 7.63 MTPA by the 5th year of operations. The construction period is 2 years, with a concession period of 30 years, inclusive of construction.

The project envisages the dismantling of legacy infrastructure and comprehensive redevelopment of Berth No. 9 to handle liquid bulk cargo such as crude oil, petroleum products (POL), and LPG.

“As part of the modernisation, the berth draft will be enhanced from the existing 10.5 metres to 14 metres, with a future-ready design provision up to 19.8 metres, enabling the port to accommodate vessels up to 2,00,000 DWT, including Very Large Gas Carriers (VLGCs),” said the ministry.

“This transformative project is a reflection of the visionary leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, under whom India’s maritime infrastructure is being modernised at an unprecedented pace,” said Minister of Ports, Shipping and Waterways, Sarbananda Sonowal.

By replacing ageing facilities with world-class marine infrastructure, enhancing cargo handling capacity to 10.90 MTPA, and enabling the handling of larger vessels including VLGCs, “we are positioning our ports to meet future energy and trade demands while strengthening India’s role as a global maritime leader”, he added.

The project will replace nearly 50-year-old structures with modern marine infrastructure designed for a 50-year structural life, ensuring long-term sustainability and resilience.

The enhanced capacity will strengthen the port’s ability to meet the growing regional demand for liquid bulk cargo, particularly energy commodities.

By enabling the handling of larger vessels and VLGCs, the project will improve economies of scale, reduce logistics costs, and enhance overall port competitiveness, said the ministry.

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Business

Bharti Airtel Receives ₹1,74,000 Penalty Notice From DoT For Subscriber Verification Lapses

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New Delhi: Bharti Airtel has disclosed a regulatory development involving a minor financial penalty tied to compliance checks on customer onboarding processes.

The Department of Telecommunications, Madhya Pradesh Licensed Service Area, has issued a notice imposing a penalty of Rs 1,74,000 on the company. The action relates to alleged non-compliance with subscriber verification requirements under telecom licensing conditions, as detailed in Annexure A on page 2.

The issue stems from a Customer Application Form audit conducted by the DoT for January 2026. These audits are carried out periodically to ensure telecom operators adhere to rules governing customer identity verification before activating services.

Under the license agreement, telecom operators are required to maintain strict verification processes when enrolling subscribers. The audit identified alleged gaps in meeting these standards, prompting regulatory action from the authority.

Bharti Airtel has decided not to contest the notice and will pay the penalty. The company clarified that the financial impact is limited to the amount levied, with no broader operational implications highlighted in the filing. The disclosure reflects routine regulatory oversight in the telecom sector, where periodic audits ensure adherence to compliance norms.

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