New Delhi, April 24: India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) is not only morally justified in light of continuing cross-border terrorism but also legally defensible due to repeated procedural violations by Pakistan, several experts reckoned on Thursday.

The action, they said, is a sovereign right exercised to protect national interest, security, and the integrity of international agreements, which depend on reciprocity and mutual adherence.

“​This step signals that while India has always honoured its international commitments, it will not be taken for granted when the other party – a rogue state like Pakistan – repeatedly breaches the spirit and terms of the agreement,” an analyst opined.

Under the Indus Waters Treaty signed between India and Pakistan in 1960, waters of three rivers – Ravi, Sutlej and Beas – averaging around 33 Million Acre Feet (MAF) were allocated to India for exclusive use. The waters of Western rivers – Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab – averaging to around 135 MAF were allocated to Pakistan except for specified domestic, non-consumptive and agricultural use permitted to India as provided in the Treaty.

Last August, India had served a formal notice to Pakistan seeking a review and modification of the IWT citing “fundamental and unforeseen changes in circumstances” that require a reassessment of obligations.

In the notice, India had highlighted that, under Article XII(3) of the IWT, its provision may from time to time be modified by a duly ratified Treaty concluded for that purpose between the two governments.

India’s notification highlighted fundamental and unforeseen changes in circumstances that require a reassessment of obligations under various Articles of the Treaty. Among various concerns, important ones included change in population demographics; environmental issues – need to accelerate development of clean energy to meet India’s emission targets; impact of persistent cross border terrorism, etc.

However, despite India’s repeated warnings, Pakistan was involved in serious violation of treaty protocols.

The eventual suspension of the treaty came only after persistent violations and was triggered further by national security threats, such as Tuesday’s Pahalgam terror attack, which has claimed 26 innocent lives.

The most critical breach occurred in 2016, when Pakistan unilaterally bypassed the treaty’s graded mechanism of dispute resolution outlined under Article IX of the IWT. This article mandates a stepwise escalation — from technical discussions to neutral expert adjudication and finally, if needed, to a Court of Arbitration.

In 2015, Pakistan initially requested a neutral expert to examine technical objections to India’s Kishanganga and Ratle Hydro Electric Projects. However, it withdrew this request next year and unilaterally approached the Court of Arbitration, violating the agreed dispute-resolution protocol. This deliberate deviation undermined the legal sanctity of the treaty and indicated a pattern of weaponizing legal mechanisms for political ends.

Recognising this breach, India issued a formal notice to Pakistan on January 25, 2023, calling for the modification of the treaty to ensure that the dispute resolution process could no longer be exploited unilaterally. ​By exhausting diplomatic options and adhering to procedural fairness, India demonstrated responsibility and restraint.

​Pakistan has also invoked the treaty’s dispute resolution provisions three times, not always in good faith.

The first instance involved objections to a hydropower project on the Chenab River in India-administered Kashmir. While Pakistan raised concerns that the project could give Indian engineers undue control over river flows, the World Bank-appointed neutral expert ruled in favour of India in 2007, validating the project’s design and sediment management as being in line with international best practices.

India has already set the stage to tighten the noose around Pakistan with several projects.

The Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project on a tributary of the Jhelum was commissioned in 2018 and diverts water from the Kishanganga River to a power plant in the Jhelum basin via a 23 km tunnel.

The Ratle Hydroelectric Project on Chenab was revived in 2021 with an 850 MW capacity as Pakistan raised concerns over potential flow manipulation.

The Tulbul Navigation Project on Jhelum was also never really off the table since the Uri attack in 2016 and can regulate water flow through a navigational lock-cum-control structure.

The Shahpurkandi Dam on Ravi was cleared in 2018 and completed in early 2024. It blocks surplus water from flowing into Pakistan, enhancing irrigation and power generation in India.

Similarly, the Ujh Multipurpose Project on a tributary of the Ravi, which was announced in 2020 is currently in the planning stage, combines storage, irrigation, and hydroelectric goals to cut off water flow to Pakistan.

It clearly shows that the IWT may only be temporarily suspended but the pressure is already building on Pakistan.

These developments clearly indicate a concerted effort by India to leverage water resources as a strategic tool in its geopolitical stance towards Pakistan and can have serious implications for the terror sponsors across the border.

Pakistan relies heavily on the Indus River system for irrigation, with about 80 per cent of its cultivated land – approximately 16 million hectares – depending on these waters. The agricultural sector contributes 23 per cent to Pakistan’s national income and supports 68 per cent of its rural inhabitants. Reduced water availability could lead to lower crop yields, food shortages, and economic instability.

The Indus basin also supplies 154.3 million acre-feet of water annually, which is vital for irrigating extensive agricultural areas and ensuring food security. Pakistan’s water storage capacity is low, with major dams like Mangla and Tarbela having a combined live storage of only about 14.4 MAF, which is just 10 per cent of Pakistan’s annual water share under the treaty. The suspension exacerbates these vulnerabilities by cutting off a guaranteed water supply.

The suspension of the IWT will also have significant economic implications for Pakistan, particularly in the agricultural and industrial sectors. It may also affect the country’s power generation capabilities, as hydropower is a crucial source of electricity.

New Delhi, April 23: Condolences poured in from across the globe following the ghastly Pahalgam terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir that left 16 dead and dozens injured.

The attack, which occurred on Tuesday in the picturesque Baisaran Valley, saw terrorists emerge from surrounding forests and indiscriminately open fire on a group of tourists, leaving dozens injured in addition to the fatalities.

Unequivocally condemning the barbaric attack on innocent tourists, Nepal said that it stands in steadfast solidarity with the Government and people of India in this time of sorrow.

The Foreign Ministry of Nepal stated, “We extend our deepest condolences to the bereaved families and express our sincere wishes for the swift and full recovery of those injured.”

“In line with our firm and principled position, Nepal condemns terrorism in all its forms and manifestations and believes that such heinous acts of terrorism cannot and should not be justified on any ground,” the ministry added.

Meanwhile, Nepal’s Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba took to her social media and expressed deep shock and sadness at the heinous terrorist attack that took place in Pahalgam, Kashmir.

“We strongly condemn this act of terrorism and the senseless violence that has claimed innocent lives. Our thoughts and prayers are with the victims and their families during this difficult time, and we wish a swift and full recovery to those who have been injured. Nepal stands in steadfast solidarity with the Government and people of India in this time of sorrow,” she posted

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese also condemned the horrific terror attack, stating that violence can not be justified.

“I am shocked by the horrific terror attack on innocent civilians in Jammu and Kashmir overnight. There is no justification for this violence, and Australia condemns it. Our hearts go out to the injured, to those mourning loved ones, and to everyone in Australia touched by this terrible news.”

Calling the horrific attack in Kashmir “utterly devastating,” UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer took to social media and posted, “The horrific terrorist attack in Kashmir is utterly devastating. My thoughts are with those affected, their loved ones, and the people of India.”

President of the EU Commission Ursula von der Leyen also offered her deepest condolences over the “vile” terror attack.

“The vile terror attack in Pahalgam today stole so many innocent lives. My deepest condolences to PM Narendra Modi and every Indian heart grieving today. Yet I know that India’s spirit is unbreakable. You will stand strong in this ordeal. And Europe will stand with you.”

Furthermore, the Ambassador of the European Union to India, Herve Delphin, stated that the EU stands against all forms and terrorism.

“Deeply shocked & saddened by the despicable Pahalgam terrorist attack against innocent tourists. Our deepest condolences to the families of the victims & best wishes of recovery to those injured. The EU stands against all forms of terrorism.”

Ono Keiichi, Ambassador of Japan to India, expressed deepest condolences and condemned the act of terrorism.

“I offer my deepest condolences to the victims of the terrorist attack in Pahalgam today. Japan strongly condemns any and all acts of terrorism. We stand firmly with India,” the Japanese Ambassador said.

Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan also extended heartfelt condolences on the terrorist attack and condemned terrorism in all its forms.

“Deeply saddened by the heinous terrorist attack in Pahalgam. I extend my heartfelt condolences to the families of the victims. Armenia strongly condemns terrorism in all its forms. Our thoughts and prayers are with the friendly people of India.”

Early reports suggest the Pakistan-based terror outfit, The Resistance Front, an offshoot of the banned Lashkar-e-Taiba, has claimed responsibility for the assault, marking one of the worst attacks in the region in recent years.

Seoul, April 23: Three contenders of the Democratic Party (DP) for South Korean presidential elections are set to hold their second public debate on Wednesday, four days before the party plans to pick its candidate for the June 3 presidential election.

The debate will bring together former DP leader Lee Jae-myung, Gyeonggi Province Gov. Kim Dong-yeon and Kim Kyung-soo, a former South Gyeongsang Province governor.

During the 90-minute debate, the candidates will present their visions in key areas, including politics, the economy, diplomacy, security and social policy.

Lee, who declared his presidential bid earlier this month and is leading opinion polls for the presidential election, recently won two regional primaries by a large margin, Yonhap news agency reported.

The DP will hold two more regional primaries before it picks a presidential candidate on Sunday.

The upcoming election is triggered by former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s ouster over his short-lived martial law declaration in December. Lee lost the presidential race to Yoon by a thin margin in 2022.

Meanwhile, earlier on April 22, the People Power Party (PPP) shortlisted four contenders in the first round of its presidential primary race.

The four candidates are former Labour Minister Kim Moon-soo, former PPP leader Han Dong-hoon, former Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo, and lawmaker Ahn Cheol-soo, according to the party’s election commission.

The results were determined based on surveys conducted by five polling agencies from Monday to Tuesday, covering a combined total of 4,000 respondents.

The PPP originally had eight presidential primary candidates, which also included PPP lawmaker Na Kyung-won, Incheon Mayor Yoo Jeong-bok, North Gyeongsang Governor Lee Cheol-woo and former DP Rep. Yang Hyang-ja.

In the second round, two candidates will be selected through a process that equally combines party member votes and public opinion polling. The party will confirm its candidate on May 3.

The presidential election will be held on June 3 after Yoon was ousted on April 4 over his shocking martial law bid.

According to a Realmetre poll released early this week, Rep. Lee Jae-myung, former DP leader, kept a strong lead with 50.2 per cent support.

Trailing Lee was Kim with 12.2 per cent. Han received 8.5 per cent and Hong garnered 7.5 per cent.

While the conservative contenders have intensified political attacks against the former DP leader Lee, the PPP seemed to be perplexed by Lee’s strong lead in opinion polls.

Last week, a plan to create a new political party in support of Yoon was put on hold.

Rep. Lee Yang-soo of the PPP told SBS radio that such a plan would have a negative impact on the party in the face of the presidential election.

Meanwhile, candidates will be required to register by May 11 and the official campaign period will kick off on May 12.

The law also requires a public servant running for President to resign at least 30 days before an election, making May 4 the deadline.

The new President will assume office immediately after the election without a transition team.