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Inflation to remain elevated with a return to sub-6% not likely before Feb 2023: Kotak report

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The inflation prints in the near term is expected to remain higher around 7 per cent, with a gradual move likely towards MPCs upper threshold of 6 per cent by end-FY2023.

“We expect inflation to remain elevated with a return to the sub-6 per cent level not likely before February 2023. We maintain our FY2023E average CPI inflation estimate at 6.5 per cent. We also maintain our call for additional 35-60 bps of repo rate hikes to 5.75-6 per cent by end-CY2022,” Kotak Economic Research report said.

The report also said that some early signs relief in inflation are visible in the near term due to easing commodity and crude oil prices, normal monsoons and improving reservoir levels, and easing global supply-chain pressures.

Kotak Research expect the CPI inflation trajectory to be lower than the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) estimates by 70 basis points in first half of calendar year 2023, and maintain our FY2023E CPI inflation estimate at 6.5 per cent.

To tame inflation and stabilise rupee, the central bank is likely to hike repo rate in the near term. However, the pace of rate hike will be lower due to global disinflationary pressures and pass-through impact of monetary tightening to demand side pressures.

“Accordingly, we maintain our call for further 35-60 basis points of repo rate hikes to 5.75-6 per cent by end-CY2022,” the report added.

In July, CPI inflation has moderated to 6.71 per cent, as against 7.01 per cent in June due to moderation in food inflation. The moderation in food prices was led by decline in prices of meat and fish, and oils and fats.

Whereas, June IIP growth moderated to 12.3 per cent, while growing sequentially by 0.1 per cent. On a sectoral basis, electricity production grew by 16.4 per cent, manufacturing by 12.5 per cent, and mining by 7.5 per cent.

Meanwhile, July core inflation (CPI excluding food, fuel, pan and tobacco) remained broadly sticky at 6.25 per cent, with a sequential pickup of 0.7 per cent. This was led mainly by rising costs of education, and clothing and footwear.

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India sees surge in deal activity at record $116 billion in 2024

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New Delhi, Jan 21: India’s deal-making landscape witnessed a landmark year in 2024, with a record 2,186 deals valued at $116 billion, marking a 33 per cent increase in volumes and 76 per cent surge in values (year-over-year), a report showed on Tuesday.

Driven by India’s status as the fastest-growing G20 economy, with a 7 per cent growth rate driven by robust domestic demand, the country’s deal-making activity reached new heights, defying global economic uncertainty, and demonstrating the resilience of its economy, according to the Grant Thornton Bharat ‘Annual Dealtracker 2024’.

“As we look ahead to 2025, we are optimistic about the prospects for continued robust deal activity, fuelled by government reforms, a stable economy, and a thriving tech ecosystem, making India an attractive destination for investors despite global uncertainties,” said Shanthi Vijetha, Partner, Growth at Grant Thornton Bharat.

The mergers and acquisition landscape witnessed a record-breaking year, with 683 deals valued at $44.1 billion, marking a 37 per cent increase in volumes and a 75 per cent surge in values compared to the previous year.

Domestic consolidation drove growth, with 479 deals amounting to $23.5 billion, a 64 per cent increase in values, led by Indian conglomerates such as Adani Group, Aditya Birla Group and Nazara Technologies.

Outbound M&A also witnessed significant growth, with 121 deals valuing $16.9 billion, driven by two billion-dollar deals, according to the report.

The private equity landscape demonstrated resilience in 2024, with 1,298 deals raising $31 billion, up from 1,046 deals valuing $27.4 billion in 2023.

The year witnessed a 26 per cent rise in high-value deals (estimated at and over $100 million) and two billion-dollar deals.

The initial public offerings (IPO) activity reached unprecedented heights in 2024, defying global economic headwinds, with 86 listings raising a record $21 billion, more than triple the $6.2 billion raised in 2023, said the report.

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India, Belgium to deepen trade and investment ties: Piyush Goyal

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New Delhi, Jan 21: Union Minister for Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal and Bernard Quintin, Belgian Minister of Foreign Affairs, European Affairs and Foreign Trade, held bilateral talks in Brussels to boost trade and investment ties across the spectrum, it was announced on Tuesday.

The meeting reinforced the longstanding relationship between India and Belgium, built on shared values of democracy, rule of law and independent judiciary, according to a statement by Ministry of Commerce and Industry.

The two leaders discussed ways to expand economic cooperation, and explored new avenues to advance this partnership.

“We had fruitful discussions on the upcoming Belgian Economic Mission to India and explored avenues to deepen mutual trade and investment ties, with a focus on sustainable technologies, semiconductors, gems and jewellery, healthcare, and agricultural products,” Goyal posted on X social media platform.

Both the leaders acknowledged Belgium’s significant reliance on foreign trade and India’s dynamic, growing economy as key factors for leveraging mutual opportunities.

“Recognising the potential of trade as a cornerstone of their partnership, they emphasised the importance of diversifying trade relations and deepening economic diplomacy to achieve sustainable growth,” according to the ministry.

The leaders also discussed the progress of the EU-India Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations and emphasised the importance of prioritising trade issues to streamline negotiations and strengthen economic relations.

The India-Belgium trade is estimated at over $15.07 billion in 2023-2024 while foreign direct investments (FDIs) from Belgium into India was estimated at over $3.94 billion.

Emerging sectors such as renewable energy, life sciences, infrastructure, digital technologies, and food products were highlighted as key areas of collaboration.

Belgium recognised the importance of engaging with India as a strategic partner to diversify its trade relationships.

Regulatory barriers, particularly in the approval processes for pharmaceuticals and agri-products, were also discussed, with both sides agreeing to tackle these challenges through continuous dialogue.

The meeting concluded with a commitment to establish stronger mechanisms for resolving trade issues. Both leaders affirmed their dedication to fostering a robust and mutually beneficial trade partnership.

“This high-level engagement marks a significant step in advancing India-Belgium trade relations, strengthening their shared vision for economic growth and sustainable development,” the ministry noted.

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India one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, global hub for startups: WEF report

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New Delhi, Jan 20: India stands at the forefront as one of the world’s fastest-growing economies and a global hub for startups and digital innovation, a World Economic Forum (WEF) report said on Monday.

According to the report, launched by the Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution (C4IR) India, the liaison office of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in India, the country’s “advocacy for and pursuit of developmental templates where technology serves as a bridge rather than a barrier are highly relevant and the Forum is proud to act as its partner in shaping a more human-centric, planet-friendly and resilient future”.

The C4IR India was launched in October 2018 by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with the aim of driving the adoption and responsible deployment of emerging technologies in India.

A collaboration between the World Economic Forum, coordinated by the NITI Ayog, the launch of the centre is part of the World Economic Forum’s global network of centres for the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

“Over the past six years, C4IR India has emerged as a key hub for multistakeholder collaboration and has improved the lives of 1.25 million citizens through enhanced livelihoods and better access to healthcare,” said Jeremy Jurgens, Managing Director, World Economic Forum.

The centre has driven fourth industrial revolution technologies across agriculture, health and aviation, setting a benchmark for transformative progress.

“As C4IR India continues to expand, it is now focusing on cutting-edge areas such as AI, climate tech, and space tech, with exciting potential for creating lasting value for society,” Jurgens added.

C4IR India aims to reach 10 million citizens by scaling its flagship initiatives and upcoming projects. These include the ‘AI for India 2030’ initiative, which seeks to unlock AI’s potential for societal benefit; the ‘Space Economy’ initiative, aimed at positioning India as a leader in space technologies; and the ‘Climate Technology’ programme, which will focus on developing climate-smart urban centres.

According to S Krishnan, Secretary, MeitY, “Our partnership with the Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution India focuses on developing a multistakeholder community to leverage Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies for critical challenges on health, education, smart cities and agriculture.

“AI for India 2030 is an important initiative in partnership with MeitY, enabling stakeholders across industry and startups to partner with government to realise the potential of AI,” he added.

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