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Inflation to remain elevated with a return to sub-6% not likely before Feb 2023: Kotak report

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The inflation prints in the near term is expected to remain higher around 7 per cent, with a gradual move likely towards MPCs upper threshold of 6 per cent by end-FY2023.

“We expect inflation to remain elevated with a return to the sub-6 per cent level not likely before February 2023. We maintain our FY2023E average CPI inflation estimate at 6.5 per cent. We also maintain our call for additional 35-60 bps of repo rate hikes to 5.75-6 per cent by end-CY2022,” Kotak Economic Research report said.

The report also said that some early signs relief in inflation are visible in the near term due to easing commodity and crude oil prices, normal monsoons and improving reservoir levels, and easing global supply-chain pressures.

Kotak Research expect the CPI inflation trajectory to be lower than the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) estimates by 70 basis points in first half of calendar year 2023, and maintain our FY2023E CPI inflation estimate at 6.5 per cent.

To tame inflation and stabilise rupee, the central bank is likely to hike repo rate in the near term. However, the pace of rate hike will be lower due to global disinflationary pressures and pass-through impact of monetary tightening to demand side pressures.

“Accordingly, we maintain our call for further 35-60 basis points of repo rate hikes to 5.75-6 per cent by end-CY2022,” the report added.

In July, CPI inflation has moderated to 6.71 per cent, as against 7.01 per cent in June due to moderation in food inflation. The moderation in food prices was led by decline in prices of meat and fish, and oils and fats.

Whereas, June IIP growth moderated to 12.3 per cent, while growing sequentially by 0.1 per cent. On a sectoral basis, electricity production grew by 16.4 per cent, manufacturing by 12.5 per cent, and mining by 7.5 per cent.

Meanwhile, July core inflation (CPI excluding food, fuel, pan and tobacco) remained broadly sticky at 6.25 per cent, with a sequential pickup of 0.7 per cent. This was led mainly by rising costs of education, and clothing and footwear.

National

Maha govt transfers seven bureaucrats in a minor reshuffle

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Mumbai, April 2: In a minor reshuffle, the Maharashtra government on Wednesday transferred seven bureaucrats.

Nishi Pandey, an IAS officer of the 2001 batch, has been posted as Managing Director of Maharashtra Small Scale Industries Development Corporation.

Laxminarayan Mishra, an IAS officer of the 2012 batch, has been posted as Joint Managing Director of Maharashtra State Road Development Corporation.

Bharat Bastewad, an IAS officer of the 2013 batch and CEO of Raigad Zilla Parishad, has been appointed Commissioner of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme at Nagpur.

Indurani Jakhar, an IAS officer of the 2016 batch, who is the Municipal Commissioner of Kalyan-Dombivali Municipal Corporation, has been posted as Collector, Palghar district.

Vasumana Pant, an IAS officer of the 2017 batch, who is Director General, VANAMATI, Nagpur, has been posted as Additional Municipal Commissioner, Nagpur Municipal Corporation.

Vaishnavi B, an IAS officer of the 2019 batch, who is Chief Executive Officer, Akola Zilla Parishad, has been posted as Additional Municipal Commissioner, Nagpur Municipal Corporation.

Neha Bhosle, an IAS officer of the 2020 batch, has been posted as Chief Executive Officer, Raigad Zilla Parishad.

Earlier, on March 25, the state government transferred five IAS officers.

The state government posted B. H. Palawe, an IAS officer of the 2013 batch, who is Chief Executive Officer, Zilla Parishad, Palghar, as the Managing Director, Maharashtra State Financial Corporation, Mumbai.

Manoj Ranade, an IAS officer of the 2014 batch and the Director of Municipal Administration, Mumbai, was appointed Chief Executive Officer, Zilla Parishad, Palghar.

Shubham Gupta, an IAS officer of the 2019 batch and the Municipal Commissioner of Sangli-Miraj-Kupwad City Municipal Corporation, was posted as Member Secretary, Vidarbha Statutory Development Board, Nagpur.

Anjali Ramesh, an IAS officer of the 2020 batch, after transfer of cadre from Madhya Pradesh, was appointed Chief Executive Officer, Zilla Parishad, Hindoli.

Zenith Chandra Deonthula, an IAS officer of the 2022 batch, who is Assistant Collector, Varora Sub-Division, Chandrapur, was posted as Project Officer, ITDP, Kinwat, and Assistant Collector, Kinwat Sub-Division, Nanded.

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National

After LS nod, Amit Shah to move Immigration and Foreigners Bill in RS today

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New Delhi, April 2: The Rajya Sabha on Wednesday will discuss the Immigration and Foreigners Bill, 2025 which has already been passed by the Lok Sabha.

As per the business list of Upper House, Union Minister Amit Shah will move that the Bill “to confer upon the Central Government certain powers to provide for requirement of passports or other travel documents in respect of persons entering into and exiting from India and for regulating matters related to foreigners including requirement of visa and registration and for matters connected there with or incidental thereto, as passed by Lok Sabha, be taken into consideration.”

He will also seek the passing of the bill after a discussion is held by the members of the House.

A key aspect of the Bill is the implementation of enhanced surveillance and security protocols. The Union Home Minister while speaking about the importance of the bill in the Lok Sabha had said, “It will strengthen the country’s security and economy, pave the way to make our education system and universities global, lay a strong foundation for research and investigation in the country and make India number one in the world in every field by 2047.”

He said that immigration was not an isolated issue but many issues of the country were directly or indirectly linked with it. He said that it was very important for the security of the country to know who is entering our borders, when they are entering, for how long they will stay and the purpose for which they are here.

Also to be tabled in the Rajya Sabha is the Boilers Bill, 2024, returned by Lok Sabha with Amendments. Union Minister Piyush Goyal will move that the amendments made by Lok Sabha be taken into consideration.

Union Minister Manohar Lal Khattar will make a statement regarding the “Status of implementation of the recommendations contained in the Tenth Report (Seventeenth Lok Sabha) of the Department-related Parliamentary Standing Committee on Housing and Urban Affairs on ‘PM Street Vendor’s AtmaNirbhar Nidhi (PM SVANidhi)’ of the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs.”

Upper House members Sushmita Dev, Rekha Sharma and Bikash Ranjan Bhattacharya will present the “366th Report (in English and Hindi) of the Department-related Parliamentary Standing Committee on Education, Women, Children, Youth and Sports on ‘Demands for Grants (2025-26)’ pertaining to the Ministry of Youth Affairs and Sports.”

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Business

Sensex plunges nearly 2 pc amid US reciprocal tariff concerns

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Mumbai, April 1: Indian stock markets on Tuesday witnessed a sharp decline on the first trading day of the new financial year. The fall came as investors reacted to global market concerns, especially the upcoming US reciprocal tariffs on April 2.

The Sensex, which represents 30 major companies, dropped by 1,390.41 points or 1.80 per cent to close at 76,024.51. During the trading session, it fluctuated between an intra-day high of 77,487.05 and a low of 75,912.18.

The Nifty index also tumbled 353.65 points or 1.50 per cent, ending at 23,165.70. It touched a high of 23,565.15 and a low of 23,136.40 during the intra-day.

Almost all stocks in the Sensex index ended lower, except Zomato, IndusInd Bank, and State Bank of India (SBI).

The biggest losers included HCL Technologies, Bajaj Finserv, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance, and Infosys, which saw their share prices decline by up to 3.66 per cent.

Midcap and smallcap stocks also faced pressure. The Nifty Midcap100 index closed 0.86 per cent lower, while the Nifty Smallcap100 index slipped 0.70 per cent.

The BSE Midcap index was down 0.9 per cent, whereas the Smallcap index managed to rise slightly by 0.2 per cent.

Sector-wise, most indices ended in the red, with IT, real estate, and consumer durables stocks falling by around 2 per cent each. Only media, oil & gas, and telecom stocks managed to stay positive.

Market volatility also surged as the India VIX, commonly known as the fear index, jumped 8.37 per cent to 13.78 points. This suggests that investors are increasingly cautious about the market’s direction.

Analysts suggest that market fluctuations may continue until there is more clarity on global trade relations and economic policies as investors remain concern about Trump’s tariff policies and their impact on international trade.

“Amid heightened global volatility ahead of the anticipated US reciprocal tariff announcement tomorrow (US time), the domestic market witnessed a significant sell-off today. Investors are eagerly awaiting the specifics of these tariffs while also keeping a close eye on ongoing negotiations for a potential Indo-US trade agreement,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited.

The IT sector was among the hardest hit due to its substantial exposure to the US market, and real estate stocks fell following Maharashtra’s upward revision of ready reckoner rates, which affect property valuations.

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