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Inflation to remain elevated with a return to sub-6% not likely before Feb 2023: Kotak report

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The inflation prints in the near term is expected to remain higher around 7 per cent, with a gradual move likely towards MPCs upper threshold of 6 per cent by end-FY2023.

“We expect inflation to remain elevated with a return to the sub-6 per cent level not likely before February 2023. We maintain our FY2023E average CPI inflation estimate at 6.5 per cent. We also maintain our call for additional 35-60 bps of repo rate hikes to 5.75-6 per cent by end-CY2022,” Kotak Economic Research report said.

The report also said that some early signs relief in inflation are visible in the near term due to easing commodity and crude oil prices, normal monsoons and improving reservoir levels, and easing global supply-chain pressures.

Kotak Research expect the CPI inflation trajectory to be lower than the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) estimates by 70 basis points in first half of calendar year 2023, and maintain our FY2023E CPI inflation estimate at 6.5 per cent.

To tame inflation and stabilise rupee, the central bank is likely to hike repo rate in the near term. However, the pace of rate hike will be lower due to global disinflationary pressures and pass-through impact of monetary tightening to demand side pressures.

“Accordingly, we maintain our call for further 35-60 basis points of repo rate hikes to 5.75-6 per cent by end-CY2022,” the report added.

In July, CPI inflation has moderated to 6.71 per cent, as against 7.01 per cent in June due to moderation in food inflation. The moderation in food prices was led by decline in prices of meat and fish, and oils and fats.

Whereas, June IIP growth moderated to 12.3 per cent, while growing sequentially by 0.1 per cent. On a sectoral basis, electricity production grew by 16.4 per cent, manufacturing by 12.5 per cent, and mining by 7.5 per cent.

Meanwhile, July core inflation (CPI excluding food, fuel, pan and tobacco) remained broadly sticky at 6.25 per cent, with a sequential pickup of 0.7 per cent. This was led mainly by rising costs of education, and clothing and footwear.

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Sensex, Nifty open flat as IT and pharma gain

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Mumbai, Dec 3: The Indian stock market opened on a quiet note on Wednesday, with both benchmark indices showing minimal movement in early trade.

The Sensex inched up by just 12 points to 85,151, while the Nifty slipped 18 points to 26,014.

Most of the major Sensex stocks were trading in the red, dragging the indices sideways. Shares of HUL, Titan, Tata Motors PV, NTPC, BEL, Trent, Bajaj Finserv, Kotak Bank, Ultratech Cement, Maruti Suzuki, L&T, Power Grid, and ITC were among the top losers in the morning session.

Despite the broader weakness, some heavyweights helped limit the downside. TCS, Infosys, Eternal, HCL Tech, Axis Bank, Tech Mahindra, and Adani Ports were trading higher, providing support to the indices.

In the broader market, mid- and small-cap stocks showed resilience. The Nifty MidCap index managed to rise 0.02 per cent, while the Nifty SmallCap index gained 0.08 per cent after erasing early losses.

Sector-wise, IT and pharma stocks outperformed the market. The Nifty IT index rose 0.7 per cent and the Nifty Pharma index added 0.3 per cent.

These sectors benefited from the Indian Rupee hitting a record low, as many companies in these industries earn a significant part of their revenue in dollars while most of their expenses are in rupees.

On the other hand, PSU bank stocks were under pressure, with the Nifty PSU Bank index falling 0.6 per cent in early trade.

Analysts said that the market remained range-bound as mixed global cues and a weak currency influenced investor sentiment.

“The ideal strategy for investors in this period of uncertainty is to remain invested in high quality growth stocks in the large and midcap segments. Smallcaps, as a segment, continues to be overvalued and are, therefore, best avoided,” market watchers added.

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Sensex, Nifty recover from early fall as profit booking keeps markets volatile

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Mumbai, Dec 2: Indian stock markets opened with a sharp gap-down on Tuesday but soon recovered some losses as investors continued to book profits after the recent rally.

The Sensex was trading at around 85,508, down 134 points or 0.16 per cent, while the Nifty slipped 31 points or 0.12 per cent to 26,145.

“The Nifty’s positional trend remains bullish, with strong support at the 26000-26050 zone. On the higher side, 26300 could offer resistance on a closing basis,” market watchers added.

Heavyweights such as HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Ultratech Cement, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Steel, Tata Motors PV, Titan Company and Power Grid dragged the indices lower.

Eternal also remained under pressure during the early trade.

However, selective buying in stocks like Asian Paints, Infosys, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finance, SBI, Maruti Suzuki, NTPC, HUL, and L&T helped the Sensex limit its losses and attempt a mild recovery.

In the broader market space, the Nifty MidCap index edged up 0.27 per cent, indicating some buying interest in mid-sized companies. On the other hand, the Nifty SmallCap index slipped 0.12 per cent.

Sector-wise, financial stocks were among the worst performers, with the Nifty Financial Services index falling 0.7 per cent and the Nifty Bank index dropping 0.4 per cent.

Meanwhile, the Nifty PSU Bank index gained 0.9 per cent, emerging as the top performer, followed by the Nifty Auto index, which rose 0.4 per cent.

Analysts said that markets remained volatile as traders continued to take profits amid mixed global cues.

“Investors can use the current period of consolidation to slowly accumulate fairly-valued largecaps and growth-oriented midcaps which will lead the next leg of rally in the market,” analysts stated.

The Smallcap segment continues to be over-valued. The Bank Nifty, despite the recent run up, have the potential to impart resilience to the market since there is valuation comfort in this segment. The pick up in credit growth is another positive for the segment.

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Gross enrolment under Atal Pension Yojana surpasses 8.34 crore: FM Sitharaman

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New Delhi, Dec 1: Gross enrolment under the Atal Pension Yojana (APY), a bid to create a universal social security system for all, especially the poor, the under-privileged and the workers in the unorganised sector, has reached 8,34,13,738 (as on October 31), the Parliament was informed on Monday.

APY was launched in 2015 with the objective of creating a universal social security system for all Indians. It is open to all citizens of India between 18 and 40 years of age who have a savings account in a bank or post office.

As per the Scheme, the subscriber will receive pension benefits on attaining the age of 60 years.

“Hence, the pension benefit under APY is expected to start from 2035 onwards. However, the gross enrolment under Atal Pension Yojana as on 31.10.2025 is 8,34,13,738,” Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman told the Lok Sabha in a written reply to a question.

As on October 31, the female gross enrolment under APY is 4,04,41,135, which is 48 per cent of the total enrolment, she noted.

Further, in Bihar, the female gross enrolment under APY is 42,07,233, which is 57 per cent of the total enrolment in the state.

“As on 31.10.2025, a total of 7,153 Bank branches and 461 Post Office branches are enrolling people into APY in Bihar,” the Finance Minister stated.

The government and the Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority (PFRDA) have taken several steps to increase awareness and coverage of APY across the country, including rural and remote areas of Bihar.

These include periodic advertisements; APY Subscribers Information Brochure in 13 vernacular languages; and virtual capacity building programmes for Banking Correspondents (BCs) and field staff of Banks, Self Help Group (SHG) members, and bank-sakhis of State Rural Livelihoods Missions (SRLMs).

During the last five years, such programmes have been conducted across various districts of Bihar, including in Muzaffarpur, Patna, Bhojpur, and Nalanda.

Recently, financial inclusion campaigns for pension saturation were organised pan-India India including 8,093 such campaigns in Bihar, said Sitharaman.

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