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Inflation to remain elevated with a return to sub-6% not likely before Feb 2023: Kotak report

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The inflation prints in the near term is expected to remain higher around 7 per cent, with a gradual move likely towards MPCs upper threshold of 6 per cent by end-FY2023.

“We expect inflation to remain elevated with a return to the sub-6 per cent level not likely before February 2023. We maintain our FY2023E average CPI inflation estimate at 6.5 per cent. We also maintain our call for additional 35-60 bps of repo rate hikes to 5.75-6 per cent by end-CY2022,” Kotak Economic Research report said.

The report also said that some early signs relief in inflation are visible in the near term due to easing commodity and crude oil prices, normal monsoons and improving reservoir levels, and easing global supply-chain pressures.

Kotak Research expect the CPI inflation trajectory to be lower than the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) estimates by 70 basis points in first half of calendar year 2023, and maintain our FY2023E CPI inflation estimate at 6.5 per cent.

To tame inflation and stabilise rupee, the central bank is likely to hike repo rate in the near term. However, the pace of rate hike will be lower due to global disinflationary pressures and pass-through impact of monetary tightening to demand side pressures.

“Accordingly, we maintain our call for further 35-60 basis points of repo rate hikes to 5.75-6 per cent by end-CY2022,” the report added.

In July, CPI inflation has moderated to 6.71 per cent, as against 7.01 per cent in June due to moderation in food inflation. The moderation in food prices was led by decline in prices of meat and fish, and oils and fats.

Whereas, June IIP growth moderated to 12.3 per cent, while growing sequentially by 0.1 per cent. On a sectoral basis, electricity production grew by 16.4 per cent, manufacturing by 12.5 per cent, and mining by 7.5 per cent.

Meanwhile, July core inflation (CPI excluding food, fuel, pan and tobacco) remained broadly sticky at 6.25 per cent, with a sequential pickup of 0.7 per cent. This was led mainly by rising costs of education, and clothing and footwear.

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Indian PSU oil companies secure ‘historic’ deal to import 2.2 MTPA LPG from US: Puri

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New Delhi, Nov 17: In a key development, Indian public sector oil companies have finalised a deal for imports of around 2.2 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) LPG for the contract year 2026, to be sourced from the US Gulf Coast, Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said on Monday.

In a post on X social media platform, he said that in a historic first, “one of the largest and the world’s fastest growing LPG market opens up to the United States”.

“In our endeavour to provide secure affordable supplies of LPG to the people of India, we have been diversifying our LPG sourcing,” the minister said.

“In a significant development, Indian PSU oil companies have successfully concluded a 1-year-deal for imports of around 2.2 MTPA LPG, close to 10 per cent of our annual imports – for the contract year 2026, to be sourced from the US Gulf Coast – the first structured contract of US LPG for the Indian market,” Puri informed.

This purchase is based on using Mount Belvieu as the benchmark for LPG purchases and “a team of our officials from Indian Oil, BPCL and HPCl had visited the US and engaged in discussions with major US producers over the last few months, which have been concluded now”.

Under the leadership of PM Modi, PSU oil companies have been providing LPG at the lowest global prices to all our mothers and sisters.

“Even as global prices soared by over 60 per cent last year, PM Modi ensured that our Ujjwala consumers continued to receive LPG cylinder at just Rs 500-550 whereas the actual cost of the cylinder was over Rs 1,100,” said the minister,

The Government of India incurred the cost of over Rs 40,000 crore last year “in order to ensure our mothers and sisters did not feel the burden of rising international LPG prices”, he mentioned.

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Indian stock market opens higher as investors cheer NDA’s Bihar win; Bank Nifty hits new record

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Mumbai, Nov 17: The Indian stock market began the week on a positive note as both the Sensex and Nifty opened in the green on Monday.

The rebound comes as investors show confidence amid the NDA’s win in the Bihar Elections 2025 and strong movement in select stocks.

The Sensex was seen trading at 84,759, up 196 points or 0.23 per cent. The Nifty also moved higher to 25,963, gaining 53 points or 0.21 per cent.

“On the weekly chart, the Nifty has shown a firm recovery from key support zones, closing above 25,900 and signaling a sideways-to-bullish bias,” experts said.

“Immediate support is placed at 25,800 and 25,700, offering opportunities to accumulate on dips, while resistance levels are seen at 26,000 and 26,100 — the latter acting as a critical breakout point. A sustained move above 26,100 could open the door for an upside extension toward the 26,250–26,400 zone in the coming weeks,” they added.

Major Sensex gainers in early trade included Kotak Bank, L&T, Titan Company, M&M, SBI, Tech Mahindra, and ITC, all rising up to 1 per cent.

On the other hand, Tata Motors PV was the biggest loser, slipping 6 per cent. Other laggards included Eternal, Ultratech Cement, TCS, Power Grid, and Infosys.

The broader market sentiment was also positive. The Nifty MidCap index rose 0.45 per cent, while the Nifty SmallCap index climbed 0.48 per cent.

Among sectoral indices, the Bank Nifty touched a fresh lifetime high of 58,830 after rising 0.5 per cent. The Nifty PSU Bank index gained 1.2 per cent, while the Nifty Private Bank and FMCG indices added 0.5 per cent each.

The Nifty Financial Services index also inched up 0.4 per cent.

Analysts said that the market opened with renewed strength, supported by banking stocks and improving investor sentiment.

“Q2 results declared so far indicate an uptrend in earnings growth. Net profits have grown by 10.8 per cent, which is the best in the last six quarters. This is a beat over earlier estimates. The present trends in consumption indicate that earnings will further improve in Q3,” market watchers mentioned.

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ED arrests real estate firm MD in PMLA case, accused sent to 14-day custody

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New Delhi, Nov 15: The Enforcement Directorate (ED) has arrested Ocean Seven Buildtech Pvt. Ltd. (OSBPL) Managing Director Swaraj Singh Yadav after conducting searches at nine locations across Delhi-NCR and other regions in a money-laundering probe under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA), 2002, an agency statement said on Saturday.

The action stems from allegations that Yadav diverted and laundered funds collected from homebuyers across multiple projects, including those under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY).

The searches on Thursday led to the recovery of Rs 86 lakh in cash, suspected to be proceeds of crime, along with incriminating documents and digital evidence.

According to the ED, Yadav orchestrated a large-scale diversion of homebuyer funds through fraudulent cancellation and resale of units at inflated prices, cash-based premiums collected outside banking channels, and misuse of escrow accounts.

He allegedly routed substantial sums into shell entities and concealed cash proceeds with relatives, the ED statement said.

Investigators also found a pattern of rapid liquidation of assets held personally and through company entities in Gurugram, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan, which the agency believes was intended to secure illicit gains and evade legal scrutiny.

His wife and children have already relocated to the United States, the probe revealed.

The agency said Yadav operated a dual-payment mechanism in the resale of PMAY flats and even in the sale of parking spaces — routing only nominal amounts through banks while collecting the bulk in cash. These activities form part of a wider probe linked to multiple FIRs alleging cheating, forgery, and other predicate offences.

Following his arrest, Yadav was produced before the Court of ASJ-06 at Patiala House Courts on Friday, in compliance with Supreme Court directions.

After detailed submissions from both sides and a pass-over granted to allow him legal assistance, the court sent him to ED custody for 14 days, until November 28.

The agency has been directed to produce him before the court at 2 p.m. on the date of expiry of remand.

The ED said it is pursuing further investigation to trace, freeze, and attach assets acquired from the laundered funds, to ensure recovery and restitution to affected homebuyers.

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