Business
If softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead Fed to taper its aggression: Sneha Poddar
Sneha Poddar, AVP Research, Broking & Distribution, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said if the softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead to the US Federal Reserve to taper its aggression. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is more likely to follow the US Fed and thus would not taper its tone till its is adopted by the latter.
Here are excerpts from the interview:
Q. Do you think after US CPI inflation print which came below estimates will allow Fed to go slow on rate hike, and RBI will follow the same?
A: The US CPI inflation data for the month of July came in at 8.5 per cent, down from 9.1 per cent in June and slightly below expectation of 8.7 per cent. However the Fed officials have responded to softening inflation data by saying it doesn’t change their stance towards higher interest rates, as the inflation still remains above the unacceptable levels. Since this is just first sign of inflation peaking out, and is too early to rule out subsequent high inflation data, uncertainty will loom over when the US Fed would slow down on its aggressive rate hikes. If the softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead Fed to taper its aggression. The RBI is more likely to follow US Fed and thus would not taper its tone till its is adopted by US Fed.
Q. 5.40 per cent repo rate is already above pre-pandemic level, but still the RBI maintains “withdrawal of accomodation” stance. Do you think the neutral level of the repo rate is at or above 6 per cent?
A: The RBI has cumulatively hiked the policy repo rate by 140bp to 5.4 per cent in FY23 till date. It reiterated its continued focus on “withdrawal of accommodation” to contain inflation while supporting growth. However, it kept its inflation/growth forecasts unchanged at 6.7 per cent/7.2 per cent YoY, respectively, for FY23. This seems very confusing as how can the rate hikes help contain inflation without hurting growth? Further, the MPC did not sound dovish at all. There was neither a change in stance nor a relief in the RBI Governor’s statement disclaiming a possible pause in rate hikes. Thus we believe that the terminal rate in this hike cycle might be at 5.75-6.0 per cent
Q. In the current market conditions, which sectors are likely to perform well from an investor returns point-of-view?
A: We believe BFSI can do well in rising interest rate scenario. On the other hand with good monsoon, upcoming festive season and softening of commodity prices, the demand both urban and rural are expected to revive and pick up and thus we are positive on Consumer, Auto and Retail. With the opening up of economy and the structural shift being witnessed in favour of the industry post Covid, QSR remains in a sweet spot. While uncertainty around quantum of interest rate hikes is likely to impact the performance of real estate stocks in the near term, longer-term thesis on revival of housing cycle remains intact. There is imminent opportunity in the domestic Hospitality industry and the expected upcycle bodes well for the sector. We are selectively looking at IT sector as valuations have become attractive for accumulation from long term perspective.
Q. Where you see levels on benchmark indices going forward considering the FI inflows in the domestic equities?
A: Strong momentum in the market has helped Nifty rally by more than 2500 points from June lows, and thus, has wiped out the entire decline for the calendar year till date and turned positive. Strong macro data, FII turning positive, steady earnings and healthy progress in monsoon have been some of the key factors supporting the market. FIIs (including primary market) turned positive for the month of July after nine months of continuous outflows and has been continuous buyer throughout the month of August so far. With the softening of commodity prices, even inflation seems to be peaking out and festive season is about to begin which should support demand and thus corporate earnings. Thus the overall trend in the market seems to be positive, however bouts of volatility can’t be ruled out as uncertainty over rate hike quantum and China-Taiwan tussle continues. Further, with this recent rally, Nifty now trades at ~20x FY23E, above its 10-year average, thus offering limited upside in the near term. Going forward, it could be a tug of war between domestic and global factors which could determine the market direction.
Business
Gold, silver prices fall over 1 pc amid rising US inflation concerns

Mumbai, May 20: Gold and silver prices declined sharply on Wednesday, with both precious metals falling over 1 per cent amid rising concerns over higher US interest rates.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (June 5) declined as much as 0.7 per cent or Rs 1,121 to hit an intraday low of Rs 1,57,959 as of 11:17 am. The yellow metal was trading at Rs 1,58,369, down 0.45 per cent or Rs 711. It touched an intraday high of Rs 1,60,378, rising 0.81 per cent or Rs 1,298, according to the exchange.
Meanwhile, silver futures (July 3) also witnessed selling pressure, slipping 1.21 per cent, or Rs 3,269, to Rs 2,66,850, its intraday low so far. The white metal was trading at Rs 2,68,970, down 0.43 per cent or Rs 1,149. It recorded an intraday high of Rs 2,69,605, lower by 0.19 per cent or Rs 514.
Earlier in the day, gold and silver opened on the MCX at Rs 1,58,974 and Rs 2,67,230, respectively.
In the international market as well, precious metals were trading lower. COMEX gold declined 0.49 per cent to $4,462 per ounce, while COMEX silver slipped 0.17 per cent to $73.868 per ounce.
According to commodity market experts, gold prices remained under pressure as investors assessed rising inflation risks and the possibility of higher US interest rates.
They noted that geopolitical tensions also continued to weigh on sentiment after US President Donald Trump warned that Washington could resume strikes on Iran within “two or three days” if Tehran failed to accept Washington’s peace terms.
The ongoing conflict has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing crude oil prices higher and intensifying global inflationary pressures.
Analysts added that rising inflation concerns have reduced expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts while increasing speculation around possible rate hikes later this year.
For silver, experts said the metal has additionally erased recent gains that were supported by optimism around AI-linked stocks and rising demand from data-centre infrastructure expansion.
Meanwhile, domestic stock markets opened lower on Wednesday, with benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty trading in negative territory during early trade.
Business
Petrol Crosses ₹107 In Mumbai After Second Fuel Price Hike In A Week Amid Iran Conflict; Diesel Rises To ₹94

Mumbai: Residents of Mumbai are facing another increase in fuel prices after oil marketing companies on Tuesday raised petrol and diesel rates for the second time within a week amid rising global crude oil prices linked to the ongoing Iran conflict. With the latest revision, petrol prices in Mumbai have climbed by 91 paise to Rs 107.59 per litre, while diesel has become costlier by 94 paise and is now retailing at Rs 94.08 per litre.
The latest increase comes just three days after fuel prices were raised by Rs 3 per litre on Friday, majorly increasing transportation and commuting costs for Mumbaikars already dealing with inflationary pressure. The fresh hike is largely driven by the sharp surge in international crude oil prices due to tensions in West Asia, particularly disruptions linked to the conflict involving Iran.
According to data released by the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell under the Petroleum Ministry, the average price of India’s crude oil basket has jumped from USD 69.01 per barrel in February 2026 to USD 110.73 per barrel as of May 15, an increase of over 60 per cent in less than three months.
The situation has been worsened by disruptions in cargo movement through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a major share of India’s crude oil imports traditionally passes. India imports more than 85 per cent of its crude oil requirements, making domestic fuel prices highly sensitive to global market fluctuations.
Mumbai, being one of the country’s largest metropolitan and commercial hubs, is likely to feel the impact more sharply due to its heavy dependence on road transport, logistics and daily commuting.
Taxi operators, app-based cab drivers and transporters have already started expressing concern over the rising operational costs. The repeated hikes are also expected to affect prices of essential goods and services, as transportation expenses rise across the supply chain.
Another factor contributing to the price rise is the weakening of the Indian rupee against the US dollar. With the rupee reportedly touching around 96 against the dollar, oil imports have become more expensive for Indian refiners and oil companies.
Despite the earlier Rs 3 increase, oil marketing companies were reportedly still facing losses after maintaining older fuel rates for nearly 10 weeks amid continuously rising global crude prices. It is also speculated that if geopolitical tensions in West Asia continue or escalate further, Mumbai and other major Indian cities could witness additional fuel price increases in the coming weeks.
Business
Panic Buying In Palghar Amid Fuel Shortage Rumours: Long Queue Seen At Petrol Pump Along Mumbai-Ahmedabad Highway

Palghar: Long queues of vehicles, especially two-wheelers, were seen at petrol pumps along the Mumbai-Ahmedabad National Highway amid rumours of a fuel shortage. The motorists claimed that they were waiting for more than an hour to refill their vehicles.
the scenes were captured at the Asian Petrol Pump in Charoti, where long queues of vehicles stretched outside the fuel station as residents feared limited fuel availability. Not just this, the report also claimed that several petrol pumps across Palghar district reportedly witnessed similar crowds, with panic buying increasing after rumours of fuel supply disruptions.
Meanwhile, the alleged rumours triggered people amid Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent appeal to citizens to reduce fuel consumption and adopt sustainable practices to help the country manage global economic disruptions.
Earlier on May 15, a similar scene was witnessed along the Maharashtra-Gujarat border, where long queues of vehicles were seen at several petrol pumps, as people rushed to fill petrol and diesel before the revised fuel rates came into effect. Visuals showed all kinds of vehicles, including trucks, cars, motorcycles and other commercial vehicles, lined up outside fuel stations, leading to heavy rush and congestion near the pumps.
Meanwhile, a similar incident was reported in Akola, where a scuffle broke out among farmers at a petrol pump over alleged fuel unavailability. Visuals showed several men fighting while standing in a crowded queue at the fuel station.
On May 10, PM Modi appealed to people to increasingly use public transport systems, including metro services, and adopt environmentally responsible practices to reduce pressure on fuel consumption and foreign exchange outflows.
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