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If softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead Fed to taper its aggression: Sneha Poddar

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Sneha Poddar, AVP Research, Broking & Distribution, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said if the softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead to the US Federal Reserve to taper its aggression. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is more likely to follow the US Fed and thus would not taper its tone till its is adopted by the latter.

Here are excerpts from the interview:

Q. Do you think after US CPI inflation print which came below estimates will allow Fed to go slow on rate hike, and RBI will follow the same?

A: The US CPI inflation data for the month of July came in at 8.5 per cent, down from 9.1 per cent in June and slightly below expectation of 8.7 per cent. However the Fed officials have responded to softening inflation data by saying it doesn’t change their stance towards higher interest rates, as the inflation still remains above the unacceptable levels. Since this is just first sign of inflation peaking out, and is too early to rule out subsequent high inflation data, uncertainty will loom over when the US Fed would slow down on its aggressive rate hikes. If the softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead Fed to taper its aggression. The RBI is more likely to follow US Fed and thus would not taper its tone till its is adopted by US Fed.

Q. 5.40 per cent repo rate is already above pre-pandemic level, but still the RBI maintains “withdrawal of accomodation” stance. Do you think the neutral level of the repo rate is at or above 6 per cent?

A: The RBI has cumulatively hiked the policy repo rate by 140bp to 5.4 per cent in FY23 till date. It reiterated its continued focus on “withdrawal of accommodation” to contain inflation while supporting growth. However, it kept its inflation/growth forecasts unchanged at 6.7 per cent/7.2 per cent YoY, respectively, for FY23. This seems very confusing as how can the rate hikes help contain inflation without hurting growth? Further, the MPC did not sound dovish at all. There was neither a change in stance nor a relief in the RBI Governor’s statement disclaiming a possible pause in rate hikes. Thus we believe that the terminal rate in this hike cycle might be at 5.75-6.0 per cent

Q. In the current market conditions, which sectors are likely to perform well from an investor returns point-of-view?

A: We believe BFSI can do well in rising interest rate scenario. On the other hand with good monsoon, upcoming festive season and softening of commodity prices, the demand both urban and rural are expected to revive and pick up and thus we are positive on Consumer, Auto and Retail. With the opening up of economy and the structural shift being witnessed in favour of the industry post Covid, QSR remains in a sweet spot. While uncertainty around quantum of interest rate hikes is likely to impact the performance of real estate stocks in the near term, longer-term thesis on revival of housing cycle remains intact. There is imminent opportunity in the domestic Hospitality industry and the expected upcycle bodes well for the sector. We are selectively looking at IT sector as valuations have become attractive for accumulation from long term perspective.

Q. Where you see levels on benchmark indices going forward considering the FI inflows in the domestic equities?

A: Strong momentum in the market has helped Nifty rally by more than 2500 points from June lows, and thus, has wiped out the entire decline for the calendar year till date and turned positive. Strong macro data, FII turning positive, steady earnings and healthy progress in monsoon have been some of the key factors supporting the market. FIIs (including primary market) turned positive for the month of July after nine months of continuous outflows and has been continuous buyer throughout the month of August so far. With the softening of commodity prices, even inflation seems to be peaking out and festive season is about to begin which should support demand and thus corporate earnings. Thus the overall trend in the market seems to be positive, however bouts of volatility can’t be ruled out as uncertainty over rate hike quantum and China-Taiwan tussle continues. Further, with this recent rally, Nifty now trades at ~20x FY23E, above its 10-year average, thus offering limited upside in the near term. Going forward, it could be a tug of war between domestic and global factors which could determine the market direction.

Business

G7 Summit: PM Modi, Prez Trump discussed West Asia, India-US trade deal & bilateral cooperation across sectors: MEA

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Evian (France), June 18: The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said on Thursday in an official statement that Prime Minister Modi met the US President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in France’s Evian and discussed end of West Asia conflict, significant progress in the India-US interim trade deal and bilateral cooperation in terms of defence, strategic technologies, energy, and trade sectors between the two countries.

Prime Minister Modi commended President Trump for his efforts that had resulted in an understanding to end the ongoing conflict in West Asia and restore peace and stability across the broader region, the MEA statement said.

The Prime Minister also underlined the importance of maintaining freedom of navigation and unimpeded commerce in the Strait of Hormuz and the need to ensure the safety of seafarer, the MEA statement added.

Taking to his official social media plaform X, PM Modi said: “Pleased to meet President Trump in Evian. We reviewed the sustained progress in our bilateral cooperation in trade, energy, defence, technology and people-to-people ties. Conveyed India’s appreciation on the progress in the efforts for restoring peace and stability in West Asia. Keeping the Strait of Hormuz open is vital for the global economy. Reiterated the importance of ensuring the safety and security of civilians, including seafarers.”

“Both PM Modi and President Trump reviewed the substantial progress achieved under the India–US COMPACT (Catalysing Opportunities for Military Partnership, Accelerated Commerce and Technology) since their meeting in Washington D.C. in February 2025,” the MEA said in the statement.

The two leaders welcomed key developments across the defence, strategic technologies, energy, and bilateral trade sectors, the MEA statement added.

“The leaders noted with particular satisfaction the significant progress made in negotiations towards an interim Bilateral Trade Agreement and instructed their officials to work towards a “balanced, mutually beneficial, and commercially meaningful agreement at the earliest”. The US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, will be visiting India next week in this connection.”

“Prime Minister Modi and President Trump reaffirmed their commitment to further strengthening the India-US Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership and advancing cooperation across all domains for the mutual benefit of the two countries and their people,” the MEA added.

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Business

Indian markets trade flat in early deals amid mixed global cues

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Mumbai, June 18: Indian equity markets traded flat on Thursday in morning trade amid mixed global cues as investors and traders assessed indications that the US Federal Reserve may still raise borrowing costs later this year, despite the benefits of lower oil prices and the Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged.

Sensex was trading at 77,095.99, down 59 points or 0.08 per cent in early trade, while Nifty was at 24,076.95, down 8.75 points or 0.04 per cent.

Sector-wise, IT stocks remained under pressure, with Nifty IT declining 1.70 per cent. In contrast, Nifty Consumer Durables and Nifty FMCG rose 0.31 per cent each, while Nifty Metal advanced 0.25 per cent and Nifty Chemicals gained 0.21 per cent.

From the Nifty pack, Infosys, HCLTech, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Tech Mahindra, Wipro, Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Finserv were the top losers.

Moreover, the US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, while indicating that further rate hikes remain possible this year as inflation continues to stay above its 2 per cent target.

According to market experts, Indian markets will not be unduly influenced by developments on the Fed rate front.

“In the near term, the market will remain resilient, supported by the crash in Brent crude to around $78 levels. The rupee is stable at around the 94.52 level,” they said.

Analysts stated that FII selling has tapered off, as expected, and that FIIs turned buyers yesterday, though in limited quantities. Brent crude prices at around $78 levels and stability in the rupee are big positives from the market perspective. Bank Nifty will remain strong with an upward bias.

Meanwhile, international oil benchmark Brent crude declined 1.64 per cent to $78.24 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slumped 2 per cent to $75 per barrel.

In Asian markets, indices showed a mixed trend. Japan’s Nikkei traded over 1 per cent higher, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was trading around 2 per cent lower. South Korea’s KOSPI was up more than 1 per cent, while Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite and China’s Shanghai Composite declined by up to 1 per cent.

Overnight in the US, Wall Street ended lower, with the S&P 500 decreasing 1.21 per cent and the Nasdaq closing 1.34 per cent down.

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Sensex, Nifty trade flat as crude oil declines, monsoon remains in focus

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Mumbai, June 17: Domestic equity benchmarks traded flat in morning session on Wednesday after a three-day rally driven by lower crude oil prices and optimism over a US-Iran peace deal.

Sensex was trading at 76,817.58, up 8.58 points or 0.01 per cent, while Nifty was at 23,988, down 1 point in early trade.

Earlier in the day, the 30-share index opened higher, rising 284.69 points or 0.37 per cent to hit an intraday high of 77,093.17. The 50-script basket began the day at 24,044.50, up 58.89 points or 0.24 per cent.

On the sectoral front, Nifty Consumer Durables was the top performer, gaining 1.26 per cent, followed by Nifty IT and Nifty Media.

In addition, healthcare and pharma stocks remained in demand, with Nifty Pharma advancing 0.24 per cent and Nifty Healthcare rising 0.18 per cent.

In contrast, selling pressure was visible in metal and realty stocks. Nifty Metal fell 0.87 per cent, while Nifty Realty declined 0.68 per cent. Nifty Auto, Private Bank and PSU Bank indices also traded in the red.

Among the Nifty 50 constituents, Hindalco Industries, NTPC, Trent, ONGC, Bharti Airtel, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories and Axis Bank were among the top losers.

According to market experts, two factors are likely to influence market trends in the near term — one positive and the other negative.

“The positive factor is the steady and sharp decline in crude oil prices. Brent crude has fallen by around 16 per cent over the last five days to about $79 per barrel, easing concerns over a widening balance of payments deficit in India,” they said.

The negative factor is the deficient monsoon, which is raising concerns about food inflation. However, experts noted that monsoon activity could improve in the coming days, as has happened in the past, easing such concerns.

The positive trend is likely to continue as the rupee has been steadily strengthening and could appreciate further, experts added.

On the commodities front, international benchmark Brent crude declined 0.72 per cent to $78.39 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude decreased almost 1 per cent to $75.35.

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