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If softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead Fed to taper its aggression: Sneha Poddar

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Sneha Poddar, AVP Research, Broking & Distribution, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said if the softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead to the US Federal Reserve to taper its aggression. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is more likely to follow the US Fed and thus would not taper its tone till its is adopted by the latter.

Here are excerpts from the interview:

Q. Do you think after US CPI inflation print which came below estimates will allow Fed to go slow on rate hike, and RBI will follow the same?

A: The US CPI inflation data for the month of July came in at 8.5 per cent, down from 9.1 per cent in June and slightly below expectation of 8.7 per cent. However the Fed officials have responded to softening inflation data by saying it doesn’t change their stance towards higher interest rates, as the inflation still remains above the unacceptable levels. Since this is just first sign of inflation peaking out, and is too early to rule out subsequent high inflation data, uncertainty will loom over when the US Fed would slow down on its aggressive rate hikes. If the softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead Fed to taper its aggression. The RBI is more likely to follow US Fed and thus would not taper its tone till its is adopted by US Fed.

Q. 5.40 per cent repo rate is already above pre-pandemic level, but still the RBI maintains “withdrawal of accomodation” stance. Do you think the neutral level of the repo rate is at or above 6 per cent?

A: The RBI has cumulatively hiked the policy repo rate by 140bp to 5.4 per cent in FY23 till date. It reiterated its continued focus on “withdrawal of accommodation” to contain inflation while supporting growth. However, it kept its inflation/growth forecasts unchanged at 6.7 per cent/7.2 per cent YoY, respectively, for FY23. This seems very confusing as how can the rate hikes help contain inflation without hurting growth? Further, the MPC did not sound dovish at all. There was neither a change in stance nor a relief in the RBI Governor’s statement disclaiming a possible pause in rate hikes. Thus we believe that the terminal rate in this hike cycle might be at 5.75-6.0 per cent

Q. In the current market conditions, which sectors are likely to perform well from an investor returns point-of-view?

A: We believe BFSI can do well in rising interest rate scenario. On the other hand with good monsoon, upcoming festive season and softening of commodity prices, the demand both urban and rural are expected to revive and pick up and thus we are positive on Consumer, Auto and Retail. With the opening up of economy and the structural shift being witnessed in favour of the industry post Covid, QSR remains in a sweet spot. While uncertainty around quantum of interest rate hikes is likely to impact the performance of real estate stocks in the near term, longer-term thesis on revival of housing cycle remains intact. There is imminent opportunity in the domestic Hospitality industry and the expected upcycle bodes well for the sector. We are selectively looking at IT sector as valuations have become attractive for accumulation from long term perspective.

Q. Where you see levels on benchmark indices going forward considering the FI inflows in the domestic equities?

A: Strong momentum in the market has helped Nifty rally by more than 2500 points from June lows, and thus, has wiped out the entire decline for the calendar year till date and turned positive. Strong macro data, FII turning positive, steady earnings and healthy progress in monsoon have been some of the key factors supporting the market. FIIs (including primary market) turned positive for the month of July after nine months of continuous outflows and has been continuous buyer throughout the month of August so far. With the softening of commodity prices, even inflation seems to be peaking out and festive season is about to begin which should support demand and thus corporate earnings. Thus the overall trend in the market seems to be positive, however bouts of volatility can’t be ruled out as uncertainty over rate hike quantum and China-Taiwan tussle continues. Further, with this recent rally, Nifty now trades at ~20x FY23E, above its 10-year average, thus offering limited upside in the near term. Going forward, it could be a tug of war between domestic and global factors which could determine the market direction.

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Nifty, Sensex post notable weekly losses amid global tensions

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Mumbai, Sep 19: The Indian equity benchmarks posted notable losses for the sixth consecutive week as foreign institutional investor (FII) selling continued and concerns about a prolonged high‑rate environment kept investors cautious.

Nifty declined 0.22 per cent during the week and added 0.33 per cent on the last trading day to reach 23,346. At close, Sensex was down 19 points, or 0.03 per cent, at 74,294. It lost 0.65 per cent during the week.

After a weak start, Indian equities staged a partial recovery later, supported by a retreat in crude oil prices from recent highs.

“With the US and Japanese policy decisions broadly in line with expectations, easing energy inflation concerns helped temper the inflation premium embedded in sovereign yields, leading to a moderation in yields in the latter part of the week and some relief for equity valuations,” an analyst said.

However, the accompanying policy guidance continued to signal a broader tightening bias across major economies, making a prolonged high-rate environment likely.

Against this backdrop, persistent FII selling sustained pressure on the rupee and capped the market rebound, leaving domestic equities lower for the week, he added.

Mid and small-cap stocks outperformed large caps as investors rotated toward domestically oriented businesses with stronger earnings visibility, healthier order books and sound balance sheets.

Sectorally, healthcare and FMCG attracted buying on their defensive earnings profiles and domestic demand linkage.

Realty and metals remained among the stronger sectors on Friday, while IT continued to face pressure, with the Nifty IT index declining around 1 per cent.

Mid and small-cap IT stocks and consumer durables declined this week on concerns over global technology spending and discretionary demand in a higher-for-longer interest rate environment and persistent pricing pressure, respectively.

Meanwhile, the 23,000–23,100 zone remains the immediate support area for Nifty, while 23,400–23,600 region remains the immediate resistance zone.

Market participants forecast that domestic credit growth and PMI readings will provide a gauge of underlying activity in the week ahead.

US initial jobless claims and commentary from Federal Reserve officials will shape expectations on the rate trajectory and global liquidity conditions.

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Apple iPhone 18 Pro series clocks 15-28 pc rise in initial India demand

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New Delhi, Sep 18: Apple’s iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max are seeing stronger initial demand in India than their predecessors despite higher prices, with analysts and retailers reporting a 15‑28 per cent year‑on‑year uptick at launch.

“While it’s too early to share definitive sales figures, initial demand for the 18 Pro is outperforming the 17 Pro YoY,” said Tarun Pathak, Research Director, Counterpoint Research after the firm checked data from 12 stores.

“Burgundy color is in demand and along with interest for higher storage variants. Early feedback is positive, though we’ll need to monitor performance over a longer window once the initial launch hype stabilises,” Pathak added.

Apple resellers are driving sales in terms of numbers and catering to buyers across different locations, he said, adding that Apple Stores see massive surges for launch-day enthusiast buying due to strong pre-orders.

Retailers said launch‑day stock supplied to stores had largely sold out and fresh allocations were being assigned, while industry experts said the absence of a standard iPhone 18 this year had concentrated demand on the two Pro models.

Apple began selling the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max in India on Friday, through its online store and six retail outlets across the country. The models can also be bought through Apple’s authorised reseller network, online marketplaces and large-format retailers.

The iPhone 18 Pro starts at Rs 1,64,900 and the iPhone 18 Pro Max at Rs 1,74,900 for the base 256GB models. Apple is offering Rs 7,000 instant cashback on eligible card EMI transactions and Rs 6,000 on eligible card full‑swipe purchases for both Pro models.

Customers exchanging an existing device can also enjoy a trade-in top-up of up to Rs 10,000, depending on the residual value of the device.

Apple’s first foldable smartphone, the iPhone Duo, is expected to hit markets in India from October 23.

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68 Japanese firms finalising manufacturing, research plans in India: Ashwini Vaishnaw

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Mumbai, Sep 18: Union Electronics and Information Technology Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw on Friday said 68 Japanese companies participating in Semicon India 2026 are in the process of finalising their manufacturing, research and partnership plans in India.

Speaking to media during his visit to the Japanese pavilion at the event, Vaishnaw said more than 30 countries are participating in Semicon India 2026, reflecting growing international interest in India’s semiconductor ecosystem.

“Here at the Japanese pavilion, there are 68 Japanese companies. They are finalising their plans for manufacturing, research and partnerships in India,” the Minister said.

Vaishnaw also highlighted the enthusiasm among young people at the semiconductor event, saying India’s semiconductor push is creating opportunities for high-skilled employment and helping develop a talent pool for the sector.

The Minister also showcased a semiconductor chip developed by students of the National Institute of Technology (NIT) Rourkela in Odisha. He said the chip was developed under the talent development programme of India’s Semiconductor Mission and that the students had made a presentation on their work before Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The student-developed chip was displayed to the media during Vaishnaw’s interaction.

Odisha Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi had earlier expressed pride at seeing indigenous chip designs developed by NIT Rourkela being showcased alongside Made-in-India semiconductor chips at Semicon India.

Majhi said the achievement was a matter of pride for Odisha and demonstrated the talent, innovation and research capabilities of institutions in the state.

He also credited Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership and Vaishnaw’s efforts for India’s continued progress towards building a strong and self-reliant semiconductor ecosystem.

The Chief Minister congratulated the scientists, researchers and the entire NIT Rourkela team, noting that talent from Odisha is contributing to India’s semiconductor journey and its broader efforts towards technological self-reliance.

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