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If softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead Fed to taper its aggression: Sneha Poddar

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Sneha Poddar, AVP Research, Broking & Distribution, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said if the softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead to the US Federal Reserve to taper its aggression. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is more likely to follow the US Fed and thus would not taper its tone till its is adopted by the latter.

Here are excerpts from the interview:

Q. Do you think after US CPI inflation print which came below estimates will allow Fed to go slow on rate hike, and RBI will follow the same?

A: The US CPI inflation data for the month of July came in at 8.5 per cent, down from 9.1 per cent in June and slightly below expectation of 8.7 per cent. However the Fed officials have responded to softening inflation data by saying it doesn’t change their stance towards higher interest rates, as the inflation still remains above the unacceptable levels. Since this is just first sign of inflation peaking out, and is too early to rule out subsequent high inflation data, uncertainty will loom over when the US Fed would slow down on its aggressive rate hikes. If the softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead Fed to taper its aggression. The RBI is more likely to follow US Fed and thus would not taper its tone till its is adopted by US Fed.

Q. 5.40 per cent repo rate is already above pre-pandemic level, but still the RBI maintains “withdrawal of accomodation” stance. Do you think the neutral level of the repo rate is at or above 6 per cent?

A: The RBI has cumulatively hiked the policy repo rate by 140bp to 5.4 per cent in FY23 till date. It reiterated its continued focus on “withdrawal of accommodation” to contain inflation while supporting growth. However, it kept its inflation/growth forecasts unchanged at 6.7 per cent/7.2 per cent YoY, respectively, for FY23. This seems very confusing as how can the rate hikes help contain inflation without hurting growth? Further, the MPC did not sound dovish at all. There was neither a change in stance nor a relief in the RBI Governor’s statement disclaiming a possible pause in rate hikes. Thus we believe that the terminal rate in this hike cycle might be at 5.75-6.0 per cent

Q. In the current market conditions, which sectors are likely to perform well from an investor returns point-of-view?

A: We believe BFSI can do well in rising interest rate scenario. On the other hand with good monsoon, upcoming festive season and softening of commodity prices, the demand both urban and rural are expected to revive and pick up and thus we are positive on Consumer, Auto and Retail. With the opening up of economy and the structural shift being witnessed in favour of the industry post Covid, QSR remains in a sweet spot. While uncertainty around quantum of interest rate hikes is likely to impact the performance of real estate stocks in the near term, longer-term thesis on revival of housing cycle remains intact. There is imminent opportunity in the domestic Hospitality industry and the expected upcycle bodes well for the sector. We are selectively looking at IT sector as valuations have become attractive for accumulation from long term perspective.

Q. Where you see levels on benchmark indices going forward considering the FI inflows in the domestic equities?

A: Strong momentum in the market has helped Nifty rally by more than 2500 points from June lows, and thus, has wiped out the entire decline for the calendar year till date and turned positive. Strong macro data, FII turning positive, steady earnings and healthy progress in monsoon have been some of the key factors supporting the market. FIIs (including primary market) turned positive for the month of July after nine months of continuous outflows and has been continuous buyer throughout the month of August so far. With the softening of commodity prices, even inflation seems to be peaking out and festive season is about to begin which should support demand and thus corporate earnings. Thus the overall trend in the market seems to be positive, however bouts of volatility can’t be ruled out as uncertainty over rate hike quantum and China-Taiwan tussle continues. Further, with this recent rally, Nifty now trades at ~20x FY23E, above its 10-year average, thus offering limited upside in the near term. Going forward, it could be a tug of war between domestic and global factors which could determine the market direction.

National

CM Nitish meets Bihar Governor Arif Mohammad Khan, discusses key issues

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Patna, July 3: Ahead of the Bihar Assembly elections, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar met Bihar Governor Arif Mohammad Khan at Raj Bhavan on Thursday, and reportedly discussed key issues.

CM Nitish reached Raj Bhavan around 11 a.m., and the meeting lasted for about 30 minutes, during which several important administrative issues were discussed.

According to sources, the meeting primarily focused on the appointments of Vice Chancellors in universities across Bihar.

“This meeting was not political but related to higher education and the appointment of Vice Chancellors and other officials in the state’s universities,” sources said.

The Bihar government, ahead of the Assembly elections, is working to resolve issues across departments, including Higher Education, ensuring timely appointments, fund releases, and smooth educational activities.

The appointment of Vice Chancellors is considered crucial to avoid administrative bottlenecks during the election period.

Bihar Assembly elections are expected to be held in October-November this year, and the Election Commission of India may announce the schedule soon.

Before the elections, the Nitish Kumar-led government is keen to clear pending administrative issues to ensure smoother governance and to prevent disruptions in universities during the election season.

Several universities in Bihar are awaiting appointments and transfers of Vice Chancellors, registrars, examination controllers and other officials. The Governor, as Chancellor of state universities, along with the Chief Minister, play a key role in these appointments.

Arif Mohammad Khan took charge as the Governor of Bihar in 2025 after serving as the Governor of Kerala from 2022 to 2025.

A senior politician, Khan has previously held important positions in the Central government as a BJP leader.

This meeting holds significance as the state gears up for elections, with the government looking keen to complete critical institutional appointments before the Model Code of Conduct comes into effect.

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National

AAP’s decision to go solo in Bihar polls draws ‘publicity stunt’ jibe from INDIA bloc ally

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New Delhi, July 3: Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) chief Arvind Kejriwal’s announcement of contesting the upcoming Bihar Assembly elections alone has invited a slew of reactions from political parties. Various parties, its ally or adversary, reacted on expected lines; however, the harshest one came from the Congress party, its erstwhile alliance partner in the INDIA bloc.

From JD(U) to Congress and others, all elicited a common view that AAP remains a non-player in the Bihar electoral landscape and its political plunge will have no impact on the power equations there.

JD(U) leader Rajiv Ranjan said that AAP’s decision to contest all 243 seats in Bihar shows clear and deep cracks in the INDIA bloc.

“This alliance is already in ruins and is now headed for further decline, as Kejriwal has himself said that the INDIA bloc was formed for the 2024 elections,” he said.

He added that AAP’s foray into the Bihar arena will have a bearing on the INDIA bloc partners, including RJD, as Tejashwi Yadav and his party will find it difficult to rally support.

Congress leader Akhilesh Prasad Singh said this looks nothing more than a ‘publicity stunt’.

“AAP has no presence in Bihar, people don’t even know Kejriwal’s party name. By such announcements, he is trying to stay in the news. Kejriwal may be known to people here, but his party is non-existent in Bihar, he said.

Another Congress leader, Tariq Anwar, said AAP was welcome to contest elections in Bihar but warned of more backlash than support.

“Every party is independent to contest elections as per its own choice. AAP can also decide its fortunes in upcoming elections, but it is a fact that AAP has no base in Bihar, it has no elected representative in Bihar, even at the panchayat level,” he said.

“Deciding to take a political plunge in such a situation could incur more losses than benefits,” he added.

Notably, AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal, addressing a press conference in Gujarat’s Gandhinagar on Thursday, said, “AAP will contest Bihar polls alone. The INDIA bloc was only for the Lok Sabha polls; there is no alliance with Congress now.”

When probed further, he said, “If there was any alliance, then why did Congress contest in Visavadar bypolls. They came to defeat us. BJP sent Congress to defeat us and cut the votes.”

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National

Rahul Gandhi questions Maha govt over farmer suicides, BJP counters with facts during Cong-NCP rule

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New Delhi, July 3: Leader of Opposition (LoP) in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi on Thursday criticised the BJP-led Maharashtra government over farmer suicides and accused the Centre of ignoring their plight. This prompted a swift response from the BJP, which cited findings and facts about farmer deaths in the state during the Congress-NCP rule to set the record straight.

The political blame game on farmer suicides began over the Fadnavis government’s admission that 767 farmers committed suicide in the state in the past three months. The state government told the Legislative Assembly on Tuesday that 767 farmer suicides were reported in the state, primarily in the Vidarbha region.

The Congress MP used the farmers’ deaths to mount an attack on the Centre, accusing it of callousness and gross indifference to their plight. He said that 767 families have been devastated and shattered, but the government remains unmoved.

“Is this just a statistic? No. These are 767 shattered homes. 767 families that will never recover. And the government? Silent. Watching with indifference,” he asked on X.

Rahul further said the farmers are sinking deeper into debt every day, but the government continues to look away. Their plight remains ignored while there is no government assurance or promise on the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for agricultural products.

BJP IT cell chief Amit Malviya was quick to counter Rahul’s charge with facts and figures of farmers’ suicides, when the state was ruled by Congress-led governments in the past.

Amit Malviya said the Congress leader must think before blurting out baseless charges. He said that Rahul must look at the utter failures and misgovernance of the Congress-NCP governments, which saw a spate of farmer deaths during their reign.

Sharing details of farmers’ deaths, Amit Malviya stated that more than 55,000 deaths took place in the 15-year rule of the Congress-NCP government and asked, ‘Who was accountable for this?’

The graph shared by him, compiled with data gathered from NCRB and P. Sainath, shared details of ‘mass suicides’ in different government tenures, starting from 1999 to 2014.

“From 1999-2004, about 16,512 farmers committed suicide while from 2004-2009, about 20,566 farmers committed suicide while from 2009 to 2014, 18,850 farmers killed themselves,” it pointed out.

Notably, the Vidarbha region in Maharashtra has gained infamy over the years because of an abnormally high number of suicides by farmers. For decades now, the region has been hogging headlines over sorry state of affairs for the farming community.

Rahul Gandhi, further escalating his attack on the Centre, said that farmers’ demand for loan waivers remains ignored, but the Modi government continues to give big loans to corporates and billionaires.

“Modi ji promised to double farmers’ income – today, the reality is that the lives of those who feed the nation are being cut in half. This system is killing the farmers,” Congress MP claimed.

Giving a firm retort, Amit Malviya said that the politics of counting the dead looks repulsive, but it’s important to show Rahul Gandhi and Congress the mirror.

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