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If softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead Fed to taper its aggression: Sneha Poddar

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Sneha Poddar, AVP Research, Broking & Distribution, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said if the softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead to the US Federal Reserve to taper its aggression. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is more likely to follow the US Fed and thus would not taper its tone till its is adopted by the latter.

Here are excerpts from the interview:

Q. Do you think after US CPI inflation print which came below estimates will allow Fed to go slow on rate hike, and RBI will follow the same?

A: The US CPI inflation data for the month of July came in at 8.5 per cent, down from 9.1 per cent in June and slightly below expectation of 8.7 per cent. However the Fed officials have responded to softening inflation data by saying it doesn’t change their stance towards higher interest rates, as the inflation still remains above the unacceptable levels. Since this is just first sign of inflation peaking out, and is too early to rule out subsequent high inflation data, uncertainty will loom over when the US Fed would slow down on its aggressive rate hikes. If the softening of inflation continues further, then it would eventually lead Fed to taper its aggression. The RBI is more likely to follow US Fed and thus would not taper its tone till its is adopted by US Fed.

Q. 5.40 per cent repo rate is already above pre-pandemic level, but still the RBI maintains “withdrawal of accomodation” stance. Do you think the neutral level of the repo rate is at or above 6 per cent?

A: The RBI has cumulatively hiked the policy repo rate by 140bp to 5.4 per cent in FY23 till date. It reiterated its continued focus on “withdrawal of accommodation” to contain inflation while supporting growth. However, it kept its inflation/growth forecasts unchanged at 6.7 per cent/7.2 per cent YoY, respectively, for FY23. This seems very confusing as how can the rate hikes help contain inflation without hurting growth? Further, the MPC did not sound dovish at all. There was neither a change in stance nor a relief in the RBI Governor’s statement disclaiming a possible pause in rate hikes. Thus we believe that the terminal rate in this hike cycle might be at 5.75-6.0 per cent

Q. In the current market conditions, which sectors are likely to perform well from an investor returns point-of-view?

A: We believe BFSI can do well in rising interest rate scenario. On the other hand with good monsoon, upcoming festive season and softening of commodity prices, the demand both urban and rural are expected to revive and pick up and thus we are positive on Consumer, Auto and Retail. With the opening up of economy and the structural shift being witnessed in favour of the industry post Covid, QSR remains in a sweet spot. While uncertainty around quantum of interest rate hikes is likely to impact the performance of real estate stocks in the near term, longer-term thesis on revival of housing cycle remains intact. There is imminent opportunity in the domestic Hospitality industry and the expected upcycle bodes well for the sector. We are selectively looking at IT sector as valuations have become attractive for accumulation from long term perspective.

Q. Where you see levels on benchmark indices going forward considering the FI inflows in the domestic equities?

A: Strong momentum in the market has helped Nifty rally by more than 2500 points from June lows, and thus, has wiped out the entire decline for the calendar year till date and turned positive. Strong macro data, FII turning positive, steady earnings and healthy progress in monsoon have been some of the key factors supporting the market. FIIs (including primary market) turned positive for the month of July after nine months of continuous outflows and has been continuous buyer throughout the month of August so far. With the softening of commodity prices, even inflation seems to be peaking out and festive season is about to begin which should support demand and thus corporate earnings. Thus the overall trend in the market seems to be positive, however bouts of volatility can’t be ruled out as uncertainty over rate hike quantum and China-Taiwan tussle continues. Further, with this recent rally, Nifty now trades at ~20x FY23E, above its 10-year average, thus offering limited upside in the near term. Going forward, it could be a tug of war between domestic and global factors which could determine the market direction.

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Crude oil surges over 6 pc to near $80 as Trump says Iran ceasefire is ‘over’

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New Delhi, July 8: Global crude oil prices surged more than 6 per cent on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran was effectively over following a fresh round of American military strikes on Iran, intensifying concerns over energy supplies from West Asia.

International oil benchmark Brent crude climbed as much as 6.52 per cent or $4.69 to trade near $80 a barrel. Similarly, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) advanced more than 6 per cent or $4.85 to around $75 a barrel.

Speaking in Ankara on the sidelines of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit, Trump told reporters that the US had carried out fresh strikes against Iran overnight in response to what he described as Iranian attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

He said, “To me, I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them anymore. They’re scum…They are sick people. They’re led by sick people. They are vicious, violent people and if they had a nuclear weapon, they would use it. As far as I am concerned, it’s over. I’ll speak to our negotiators. They want to negotiate. As far as I’m concerned, it’s just a waste of time dealing with them. They’re liars. We make a deal…Everyone’s agreed. No nuclear weapon. We make a deal. They go outside and talk to the press. They say we never even talked about it. There’s something wrong with them. They’re cuckoo. As far as I’m concerned, it’s over.”

Trump also described Iranian leaders in strongly critical terms and said he no longer wished to pursue negotiations with Tehran, expressing scepticism about the prospects of any future agreement.

His remarks came amid renewed tensions in the region following a series of attacks on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route.

The sharp rise in crude prices weighed on investor sentiment, with Indian equity markets witnessing broad-based selling.

As of 3 pm, Sensex fell around 1,900 points or more than 2 per cent to 76,259, while Nifty was down nearly 600 points or over 2 per cent at 23,805.

The latest rally in crude prices marked a sharp reversal from earlier expectations of abundant supply after OPEC+ announced higher production quotas and major Middle Eastern producers increased output.

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee weakened by 20 paise to 95.16 against the US dollar in early trade. The domestic currency opened at 95.15 against the greenback.

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South Indian Bank shares tank 10 pc after RBI nod for new CEO

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Shares of private lender South Indian Bank tumbled nearly 10 per cent on Wednesday after the lender announced that it had received the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) approval for the appointment of Mahesh Muralidhar Pai as its Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer (MD & CEO).

The private banking stock declined as much as 9.86 per cent to Rs 43.02 on the BSE. At around 12:05 pm, it was trading at Rs 44.23, down more than 7 per cent.

In a regulatory filing, the private sector lender said the RBI has approved the appointment of Pai as MD and CEO for a period of three years with effect from October 1.

The bank said the proposal for Pai’s appointment will be placed before its Board of Directors at the meeting scheduled for July 16.

In addition, the appointment will require shareholders’ approval in accordance with the Companies Act, 2013, and the SEBI (Listing Obligations and Disclosure Requirements) Regulations.

Pai (50) is currently serving as Chief General Manager at Canara Bank, where he heads digital banking and innovation, according to the exchange filing.

With nearly three decades of banking experience, he has worked across governance, strategy, treasury, foreign exchange, retail banking, agriculture and MSME credit. He has also led several strategic initiatives at Canara Bank, including the establishment of its gold loan vertical, and has previously headed one of the bank’s largest zones.

Moreover, he serves as a Director on the boards of Karnataka State Financial Corporation and Canara Bank Securities Ltd, the filing added.

According to BSE data, the stock has touched a 52-week high of Rs 49.90 and a 52-week low of Rs 28.13.

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Kutch Copper Ltd’s ‘Adani Copper’ becomes London Metal Exchange-registered brand

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Ahmedabad, July 7: Kutch Copper Limited (KCL), a subsidiary of Adani Enterprises Ltd, has earned London Metal Exchange (LME) certification for ‘Adani Copper,’ according to a statement issued by the company on Tuesday.

“Approval by the world centre for the trading of industrial metals validates KCL’s manufacturing excellence and responsible sourcing practices against strict global benchmarks, enabling Adani Copper cathodes to be delivered with warrants eligible for issuance against LME Copper futures contracts from July 10, 2026,” the statement said.

For the Adani Group, LME’s listing of Adani Copper as a Good Delivery brand for ‘Copper Grade A’ contracts places the brand alongside the world’s leading copper brands, conferring international recognition and market credibility on the Group’s entry into the metals sector and its emergence as a globally competitive producer of refined copper.

“Copper is the backbone of the global energy transition. Achieving LME brand status places Adani among the world’s leading copper producers and strengthens India’s role in building a resilient, responsible supply chain for this vital metal. Kutch Copper’s world-class infrastructure and ESG standards make this recognition both timely and well-deserved. It will enhance the global acceptance of Adani Copper. Apart from reinforcing India’s growing stature in the international metals industry, the registration is a landmark step towards self-reliance in refined copper,” Adani Enterprises’ CEO, Natural Resources, and Kutch Copper Ltd Managing Director Dr Vinay Prakash said.

An LME-brand certification is a rigorous process involving superior quality assurances — covering chemical composition, shape and weight — alongside strict responsible sourcing protocols. The LME listing enables Adani Copper cathodes to be placed on warrant in LME-approved warehouses, strengthening financing flexibility as LME-listed metal is recognised as a highly liquid asset that can be used as collateral. For the LME, the addition of Adani Copper broadens the exchange’s deliverable base with high-quality cathode from a major new production hub, deepening the liquidity and geographic diversity of the global copper market.

The $1.2 billion Kutch Copper facility with production capacity of 0.5 million tonnes — one of the world’s largest single-location custom copper smelting complexes, designed with state-of-the-art technology, advanced process automation, and sustainability-led design principles embedded across operations — strengthens domestic supply, reduces the nation’s dependence on imported copper, and advances India’s ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat’ ambitions in a metal central to electrification, renewable energy and the energy transition, the Adani Group statement added.

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