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India’s growth story continues despite Covid; more people turning into ‘job creators’

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Various waves of the Covid pandemic could not sweep off India’s growth story completely. Showing resilience India has registered 1.67 lakh companies in the financial year 2021-22 (April-March), according to a report by Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA).

The increase is significant considering that number of companies incorporated during Financial Year 2020-21 were the highest in any of the previous years.

The MCA had registered 1.55 lakh companies in 2020-2021. The incorporations during FY 2021-22 are 8 per cent more than the incorporations during FY 2020-21. While MCA had registered 1.24 lakh companies during FY 2018-19 and 1.22 lakh companies in 2019-20 respectively, it had registered 1.55 Lakh companies during FY 2020-21.

During FY 2021-22, the States having the highest number of registrations were Maharashtra (31,107 companies) followed by Uttar Pradesh (16,969 companies) Delhi (16,323 companies) Karnataka (13,403 companies) and Tamil Nadu (11,020 companies).

Sector wise, the maximum number of companies were incorporated in the Business Services (44,168 companies), followed by manufacturing (34,640 Companies) community, personal & social services (23,16 companies) and agriculture & allied activities (13,387 companies).

This also indicates that due to less availability of suitable jobs more and more people are opening their own businesses and are in turn becoming job creators.

The growth in GDP in India during 2021-22 is estimated at 8.9 per cent as against a contraction of 6.6 per cent in 2020-21. In value terms, GDP stood at Rs 38,22,159 crore in October-December 2021-22, higher than the Rs 36,22,220 crore in the corresponding period of the 2020-21.

Gross Value-Added (GVA) in the economy is expected to grow by 8.3 per cent in 2021-22 from a 4.8 per cent contraction in 2020-21, the National Statistical Office (NSO) said. Apart from the contact-intensive segment of trade, hotels, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting, all sectors are expected to surpass pre-pandemic GVA levels this year.

Even the MSMEs (Medium, Small, and Micro Enterprises) sector in India is set for an economic rebound, the latest ASSOCHAM-CRISIL joint study stated. It added that the sector is expected to achieve mid-teen growth in fiscal 2022 with the pick-up of economic activities.

Amidst the global pandemic, India has found its innate strength to brave the storm and focus on developing its domestic ecosystem, to support both the Indian and the global markets. The Aatmanirbhar Bharat vision that has been laid by the Hon’ble Prime Minister has enthused the Indian industry with confidence that will help us enhance our global play,” says MrDeepak Sood, Secretary General, ASSOCHAM.

Considered to be the engine of economies around the world, the MSME segment in India alone is estimated to have 6.3 crore units, which employs over 11.10 crore people. The sector accounts for 27 per cent of GDP and is crucial to the functioning of the economy, including in terms of employment generation, exports, and lending opportunities. The sector was the worst hit during the COVID-19 pandemic and the lockdown that followed in 2020.

Crediting MSMEs for putting the country on the firm path of economic recovery in 2022 after having had it tough in 2021, Bhushan Parekh, Director, CRISIL SME Solution, elaborated in the report, “A raft of measures by the government under its Aatmanirbhar Bharat banner has provided reprieve to MSME segment in recent months. These include Rs 20,000 crore subordinate debt for stressed MSMEs, Rs 50,000 crore equity infusion through MSME Fund of Funds (SRI Fund), 3-lakh crore Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) for businesses, including MSMEs (which was subsequently increased to Rs 5-lakh crore in Union Budget 2022-23), change in definition of what constitutes an MSME, and no global tenders for government procurement up to Rs 200 crore.”

The report also notes that if MSME lending by banking and non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) in fiscal 2021 rose to 7 per cent on-year, then the credit is expected to grow by 7-9 per cent (around Rs 18-lakh crore) on-year in fiscal 2022 supported by favourable government measures as well as rise in demand.

While the banks continue to dominate around 80 per cent of the MSME-lending book, it is, however, expected to reverse in the future. One of the factors driving the change is the digitalization of the MSME sector. The digital footprint of MSMEs expanded in 2021, according to the CRISIL survey of over 500 MSMEs. This has not only helped in providing enhanced customer experience, operational efficiency and workforce enhancement, but also facilitates access to financial services.

MSME also has 50 per cent share in exports since the past five years. The report states that exports-linked MSME sectors have been on the path to recovery and will continue to do so in the next fiscal.

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Global crude prices rise 0.73 pc as US-Iran talks stall

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New Delhi, Crude oil prices rose on Friday as efforts to resolve the Iran crisis reached a stalemate, with Tehran continuing to block the Strait of Hormuz and Washington restricting Iranian crude exports.

Brent futures for July on Intercontinental Exchange gained $0.81, or 0.73 per cent, to $111.21 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose 31 cents, or 0.30 per cent, to $105.37. Both benchmarks have posted gains for four consecutive months, analysts noted.

Brent crude oil had crossed $120 per barrel for the first time in 4 years, heightening inflation concerns and putting pressure on global markets.

Market participants flagged new supply concerns after Brent’s June contract, which expired on Thursday, hit $126.41 a barrel, its highest level since March 2022.

British and European central banks cautioned about rising inflation, while the United States is working towards a coalition of allied countries and shipping companies to ensure secure transit through Hormuz.

A ceasefire though in effect since April 8 felt shaky, as on Thursday evening, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said it was unrealistic to expect quick outcomes from negotiations with the US, according to multiple reports.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has warned that rising oil prices due to the Middle East conflict are boosting inflation and complicating policy. Asia faces greater economic risks from the energy shock, he added.

The price of a 19-kg commercial LPG cylinder has been increased by Rs 993, starting Friday, and after the revision, a 19-kg cylinder will now cost Rs 3,071.5 in Delhi.

However, there has been no change in the price of domestic LPG cylinders for 33 crore users, the Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) said in a statement.

This is the third time that the price of a 19-kg commercial LPG cylinder has been increased since February 28, when the US-Israel and Iran war began.

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Sensex, Nifty fall nearly 1 pc as oil surge weighs on sentiment

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Mumbai, Indian equity benchmarks started Thursday’s session — the final trading day of the week — on a weaker note, with both indices declining nearly 1 per cent in early deals, as a sharp jump in crude oil prices dented sentiment and outweighed support from stock-specific earnings gains.

Sensex fell as much as 0.95 per cent or over 700 points to 76,759.37 in early trade, hitting an intraday low, while Nifty declined 0.96 per cent or more than 200 points to 23,943.45.

Selling pressure was broad-based, with auto, banking, realty, metal, consumer durables and FMCG stocks, falling up to 1 per cent. Eternal, Shriram Finance, IndiGo, M&M, Jio Financial Services, Tata Motors PV, Axis Bank, Grasim Industries, Asian Paints, ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank were among the top laggards.

While Nifty 100, Nifty Midcap, Nifty 200 and Nifty 500 indices declined by up to around 1 per cent. Meanwhile, the India VIX rose 2.7 per cent to 17.91, indicating heightened market volatility.

According to a market expert, two key headwinds could impact markets in the near term.

“Brent crude at around $120 threatens India’s macroeconomic stability. If prices remain elevated, it could pose downside risks to growth and push inflation higher,” the expert said.

“Secondly, stronger-than-expected results from AI majors in the US and South Korea may extend the ongoing AI trade, potentially leading to further portfolio outflows from India,” he added.

The Fed’s decision to hold rates was on expected lines and is unlikely to have a significant impact. However, the rise in US 10-year bond yields to 4.4 per cent could further incentivise capital outflows from India,” said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.

Exit polls indicating consolidation of the ruling party’s position may offer some sentiment support but do not materially alter market fundamentals.

“Investors can focus on companies reporting better-than-expected Q4 results and strong outlooks, where opportunities remain,” he said.

Oil prices rallied after US President Donald Trump reportedly held talks with oil companies on steps to reduce the impact of a potential prolonged blockade of Iran’s ports, raising concerns over possible disruptions to global crude supplies.

Separately, the US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, broadly in line with expectations, while cautioning about inflation risks stemming from the Iran conflict. Market participants have also pared back expectations of rate cuts in 2026.

Crude oil prices are approaching their 52-week highs of $114.81. Brent crude was trading at $113.18 per barrel, up 2.48 per cent from the previous close, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $109.64 per barrel, also higher on the day.

However, Brent crude hovered close to $120 per barrel after surging over 6 per cent on Wednesday to its highest level since June 2022.

In Asian markets, indices were mixed. Japan’s Nikkei and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng were down over 1 per cent, South Korea’s KOSPI declined 0.40 per cent, while Singapore’s Straits Times gained 0.65 per cent.

On Wall Street, US markets ended on a flat note, with the S&P 500 settling at 7,135.95, down 0.04 per cent, and the Nasdaq finishing at 24,673.24, up 0.04 per cent.

Notably, domestic equity markets will remain shut for trading on Friday, May 1, in observance of Maharashtra Day.

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Gold, silver see muted trade amid Iran-US de-escalation hopes

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Mumbai, Gold and silver prices traded on a flat note on Monday amid a rise in crude oil prices and reports of a fresh proposal by Iran to end the conflict with the US, raising hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (June 5 contract) were trading at Rs 1,52,410 per 10 grams, down 0.19 per cent or Rs 290 from the previous close of Rs 1,52,699.

By 11:00 A.M., the yellow metal touched an intraday high of Rs 1,53,008, up 0.20 per cent or Rs 309.

Meanwhile, silver futures (May 5 contract) were trading at Rs 2,43,200, down Rs 1,436 or 0.6 per cent.

The white metal touched an intraday high of Rs 2,45,473, up 0.34 per cent or Rs 837 from the previous close, and a low of Rs 2,43,009, down 0.66 per cent or Rs 1,627.

According to a commodity market expert, precious metals are trading with a cautious bias, with prices largely driven by key technical levels amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

On COMEX, gold is holding above the $4,700–$4,680 support zone, with further downside possible below $4,650, while a sustained move above $4,750–$4,800 could revive momentum towards $4,900, the expert said.

On MCX, gold is hovering near Rs 1,52,500, with resistance seen around Rs 1,54,000 and support at Rs 1,50,000, the expert added.

The analyst also said that silver is also showing a cautious undertone, noting that volatility remains elevated due to geopolitical tensions, keeping the overall outlook range-bound in the near term.

In the international market, both metals were largely flat. On COMEX, gold was trading marginally higher by 0.02 per cent at $4,742 per ounce, while silver was down 0.05 per cent at $76 per ounce.

However, tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, although Iran has reportedly proposed a fresh peace initiative to the US aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the conflict.

Amid global uncertainty, gold and silver have delivered strong returns to investors over the past year. Gold has gained over 40 per cent in dollar terms over the past year and more than 18 per cent in six months.

Meanwhile, silver has more than doubled investors’ money over the past year and gained over 60 per cent in the last six months.

Additionally, Brent crude jumped over 2 per cent to $107.77, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) advanced to $96.68, an increase of 2.41 per cent.

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