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Indian retail investors seem unperturbed by the ‘FII Winter’

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Even as the Indian stock markets are volatile and foreign institutional investors (FII) are selling their holdings the retail investors are continuing their investment.

“Indian retail investors are resilient. They form a significant part of the market,” Radhika Gupta, Managing Director and CEO, Edelweiss Asset Management Company told IANS.

She said even in the past, retail investors did not exit when markets went down and it is time to stop focusing on what FIIs do.

The Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) estimates the total collections by the industry under the systematic investment plan (SIP) in May 2022 was Rs 12,286 crore, up from Rs11,863 crore collected in the month before that.

The total number of SIP accounts at the end of May 2022 was more than 5.48 crore, up from 5.39 crore, but the number of new SIP accounts opened last month was 19.75 lakh, down from 21.82 lakh accounts in April 2022.

The SIP assets under management (AUM) at the end of May 2022 was Rs 565,706 crore down from Rs 578,086 crore at the end of April 2022, said AMFI.

“This is the first time in many years that investors’ optimism is being tested. Also, the number of retail investors have ballooned in recent years. Many of these are Do-It-Yourself (DIY) investors who rely on ‘finfluencers’ for advice and (often gamified) fintech platforms for execution,” Jayant R Pai, Head Products and Chief Marketing Officer, told IANS.

According to him, such investors are likely to be more unsettled, compared to those who rely on Financial Planners for advice.

“Hence, it is possible that some SIPs may be cancelled in case this continues for a few more months. Perhaps a perceptible uptick in the number of SIPs being cancelled may also serve as a contrarian indicator (of the market bottoming out),” Pai said.

As per AMFI figures, the number of SIPs discontinued/tenure completed last month was 10.36 lakh down from 10.53 lakh in April 2022.

Gupta said the market is structurally upward in the long term.

Queried whether retail investors continue to invest is an off beat trend Gupta refuted that and added the numbers are steady and SIPs are expected to grow.

She also added that India is a big country and more people will enter the market and one should focus on the investment goals rather than looking at what FIIs do.

On the factors that make FIIs to sell out Pai said: “High food and fuel inflation leading to fear of a tighter monetary regime (which is coming to pass now). Fear of emerging market currencies being adversely affected as a result of the tightening. War in Ukraine, catalysing attendant geo-political tensions and light-to-safety.”

The interest rates in their home country will also make FIIs exit the market, Gupta said.

On the quantum sold by FIIs and purchases by the domestic institutional investors (DII) Pai said: “January to June 2022 figures depict that FIIs sold (net) Rs 2.62 lakh crore while DIIs purchased (net) Rs 2.07 lakh crore. Hence the ballast provided by the DIIs played a key role in cushioning the trajectory of the decline. However, the desultory investment environment has ensured that they could not alter the direction.”

He said the DIIs will have to hunker down for a while. However, those who are investing with their financial goals in mind and can remain invested for at least five years from today, ought not to feel too perturbed about the ‘FII winter’.

Business

Gold, silver decline up to 1 pc as US-Iran tensions weigh sentiment

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New Delhi, Aug 14: Gold and silver prices traded sharply lower on Friday amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned of never-before-seen economic measures against Iran.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures (October) declined as much as 0.8 per cent or Rs 1,233 to Rs 1,52,233, hitting an intraday low by 10:22 am.

At the last count, the yellow metal was trading at 1,52,415, down Rs 1,051 or 0.68 per cent. It touched an intraday high of Rs 1,53,200 so far in the session, a decrease of 0.17 per cent or Rs 266 from the previous close.

Similarly, silver futures (September) recorded an intraday low of Rs 2,32,454, decreasing 1.27 per cent or Rs 2,993.

The white metal was trading at Rs 2,32,880, down Rs 2,567 or about 1 per cent. It touched an intraday high of Rs 2,33,982, down 0.62 per cent or Rs 1,465.

Earlier in the day, gold and silver opened at Rs 1,53,200 and Rs 2,33,780, respectively on the MCX.

The selling pressure in precious metals came after reports suggest that Bessent said the US would use a combination of economic isolation and a continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to market experts, MCX Gold extends downside momentum, trading near Rs 152,500 after facing rejection from highs near Rs 155,500.

They further noted that immediate resistance is placed at Rs 153,000–Rs 153,500 near open and a decisive move above could push toward Rs 154,000–Rs 154,500.

Immediate support is seen at Rs 152,000–Rs 151,500, followed by stronger support at Rs 151,000, the experts said adding that price continues to hold comfortably above all major EMAs, but MACD indicates slowing bullish momentum and RSI reverses from overbought territory, reflecting possible near-term pressure.

For MCX Silver, the experts stated that immediate support is seen at the Rs 232,000 zone, followed by stronger support at Rs 231,500–Rs 231,000.

Price breaks below the 20-day EMA, with MACD indicating slowing bullish momentum, while RSI eases, supporting the trend-reversal narrative and reflecting near-term pressure. Bias remains cautious, with a break below Rs 232,000 likely to invite further downside.

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Business

India may attract up to $95 billion inflows in FY27 on strong FCNR response: Report

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New Delhi : Robust foreign currency non‑resident (bank) FCNR(B) inflows and related measures from RBI are now expected to generate $90–95 billion of capital inflows in FY27, lifting India’s balance of payments to a surplus of $64 billion, a report has said.

The report from CareEdge Ratings said the agency has revised up its FCNR(B) projection to about $80 billion and expects External Commercial Borrowings and Overseas Foreign Currency inflows at $10–15 billion.

Consequently, India’s capital account surplus is now expected to increase to approximately $108 billion, compared with a surplus of just $2 billion in the previous year

The report added that the BoP is forecast to improve to a $64 billion surplus in FY27 from deficits of $23.6 billion in FY26 and $5 billion in FY25.

“This would represent a substantial strengthening of India’s external position and provide an important buffer against global volatility,” the ratings agency said.

The concessional swap windows for FCNR(B) deposits, External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) and Overseas Foreign Currency Borrowings (OFCBs), amongst other policy measures announced on June 5, 2026, have seen a strong response.

The firm noted these measures have attracted USD 40.8 billion, with FCNR(B) inflows accounting for $36.7 billion, and ECBs and OFCBs together accounting for $4.1 billion between June 5 and July 31, 2026.

Large banks are currently offering deposit rates in the 6.0-6.5 per cent range, while some smaller and newer banks are offering rates close to 7 per cent for FCNR deposits.

Additionally, the availability of significant leverage for investors, with some foreign banks reportedly offering leverage as high as 19-fold to 29-fold in some cases, appears to have enhanced the attractiveness of the scheme and supported stronger-than-expected participation.

The report noted that strong capital inflows could ease domestic liquidity as banking system liquidity averaged around Rs 1.1 trillion in July and has risen to Rs 3 trillion so far in August, supported by month‑end inflows.

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Business

Sensex, Nifty open flat as investors weigh strong domestic fundamentals against oil price risks

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Mumbai, Aug 13: Equity benchmarks opened little changed on Thursday as investors balanced robust domestic growth indicators against lingering concerns over crude oil prices.

Sensex opened 145.56 points or 0.19 per cent higher at 78,111.91, while Nifty slipped marginally by 4.35 points or 0.02 per cent to 24,431.60.

Sector-wise, Nifty Media index rose 0.61 per cent, followed by Nifty Auto which gained 0.39 per cent.

On the other hand, rate-sensitive and heavyweight sectors witnessed selling pressure. Nifty Realty declined 0.81 per cent, Nifty IT fell 0.69 per cent, while Nifty PSU Bank, Oil & Gas and Private Bank indices shed up to 0.61 per cent.

According to market experts, equities are likely to remain in a consolidation phase in the near term due to strong domestic macroeconomic fundamentals and sustained inflows from domestic investors.

High-frequency indicators such as GST collections, freight movement, automobile sales and credit growth continue to signal resilience in the economy and could support earnings growth going forward, they added.

However, elevated crude oil prices and uncertainty surrounding their future trajectory remain key risks for the market, the experts said.

Technical analysts noted that Wednesday’s rebound from the 20-day moving average and the formation of a hammer candlestick pattern have improved the near-term outlook.

“The recent price action has opened the possibility of a move towards the 24,540-24,666 zone initially, followed by 24,850-25,100. However, some consolidation may emerge near 24,490,” according to them.

Meanwhile, Brent crude slipped more than 1 per cent to $87.75 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 1.64 per cent to $81.90 per barrel, helping ease concerns over inflationary pressures and input costs.

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