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India leverages water resources as strategic tool to tighten noose around ‘rogue state’ Pakistan

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New Delhi, April 24: India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) is not only morally justified in light of continuing cross-border terrorism but also legally defensible due to repeated procedural violations by Pakistan, several experts reckoned on Thursday.

The action, they said, is a sovereign right exercised to protect national interest, security, and the integrity of international agreements, which depend on reciprocity and mutual adherence.

“​This step signals that while India has always honoured its international commitments, it will not be taken for granted when the other party – a rogue state like Pakistan – repeatedly breaches the spirit and terms of the agreement,” an analyst opined.

Under the Indus Waters Treaty signed between India and Pakistan in 1960, waters of three rivers – Ravi, Sutlej and Beas – averaging around 33 Million Acre Feet (MAF) were allocated to India for exclusive use. The waters of Western rivers – Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab – averaging to around 135 MAF were allocated to Pakistan except for specified domestic, non-consumptive and agricultural use permitted to India as provided in the Treaty.

Last August, India had served a formal notice to Pakistan seeking a review and modification of the IWT citing “fundamental and unforeseen changes in circumstances” that require a reassessment of obligations.

In the notice, India had highlighted that, under Article XII(3) of the IWT, its provision may from time to time be modified by a duly ratified Treaty concluded for that purpose between the two governments.

India’s notification highlighted fundamental and unforeseen changes in circumstances that require a reassessment of obligations under various Articles of the Treaty. Among various concerns, important ones included change in population demographics; environmental issues – need to accelerate development of clean energy to meet India’s emission targets; impact of persistent cross border terrorism, etc.

However, despite India’s repeated warnings, Pakistan was involved in serious violation of treaty protocols.

The eventual suspension of the treaty came only after persistent violations and was triggered further by national security threats, such as Tuesday’s Pahalgam terror attack, which has claimed 26 innocent lives.

The most critical breach occurred in 2016, when Pakistan unilaterally bypassed the treaty’s graded mechanism of dispute resolution outlined under Article IX of the IWT. This article mandates a stepwise escalation — from technical discussions to neutral expert adjudication and finally, if needed, to a Court of Arbitration.

In 2015, Pakistan initially requested a neutral expert to examine technical objections to India’s Kishanganga and Ratle Hydro Electric Projects. However, it withdrew this request next year and unilaterally approached the Court of Arbitration, violating the agreed dispute-resolution protocol. This deliberate deviation undermined the legal sanctity of the treaty and indicated a pattern of weaponizing legal mechanisms for political ends.

Recognising this breach, India issued a formal notice to Pakistan on January 25, 2023, calling for the modification of the treaty to ensure that the dispute resolution process could no longer be exploited unilaterally. ​By exhausting diplomatic options and adhering to procedural fairness, India demonstrated responsibility and restraint.

​Pakistan has also invoked the treaty’s dispute resolution provisions three times, not always in good faith.

The first instance involved objections to a hydropower project on the Chenab River in India-administered Kashmir. While Pakistan raised concerns that the project could give Indian engineers undue control over river flows, the World Bank-appointed neutral expert ruled in favour of India in 2007, validating the project’s design and sediment management as being in line with international best practices.

India has already set the stage to tighten the noose around Pakistan with several projects.

The Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project on a tributary of the Jhelum was commissioned in 2018 and diverts water from the Kishanganga River to a power plant in the Jhelum basin via a 23 km tunnel.

The Ratle Hydroelectric Project on Chenab was revived in 2021 with an 850 MW capacity as Pakistan raised concerns over potential flow manipulation.

The Tulbul Navigation Project on Jhelum was also never really off the table since the Uri attack in 2016 and can regulate water flow through a navigational lock-cum-control structure.

The Shahpurkandi Dam on Ravi was cleared in 2018 and completed in early 2024. It blocks surplus water from flowing into Pakistan, enhancing irrigation and power generation in India.

Similarly, the Ujh Multipurpose Project on a tributary of the Ravi, which was announced in 2020 is currently in the planning stage, combines storage, irrigation, and hydroelectric goals to cut off water flow to Pakistan.

It clearly shows that the IWT may only be temporarily suspended but the pressure is already building on Pakistan.

These developments clearly indicate a concerted effort by India to leverage water resources as a strategic tool in its geopolitical stance towards Pakistan and can have serious implications for the terror sponsors across the border.

Pakistan relies heavily on the Indus River system for irrigation, with about 80 per cent of its cultivated land – approximately 16 million hectares – depending on these waters. The agricultural sector contributes 23 per cent to Pakistan’s national income and supports 68 per cent of its rural inhabitants. Reduced water availability could lead to lower crop yields, food shortages, and economic instability.

The Indus basin also supplies 154.3 million acre-feet of water annually, which is vital for irrigating extensive agricultural areas and ensuring food security. Pakistan’s water storage capacity is low, with major dams like Mangla and Tarbela having a combined live storage of only about 14.4 MAF, which is just 10 per cent of Pakistan’s annual water share under the treaty. The suspension exacerbates these vulnerabilities by cutting off a guaranteed water supply.

The suspension of the IWT will also have significant economic implications for Pakistan, particularly in the agricultural and industrial sectors. It may also affect the country’s power generation capabilities, as hydropower is a crucial source of electricity.

Crime

Pakistan leans on Sunni groups to curb Shia mobilisation, maintain Iran neutrality

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New Delhi, March 25: For Pakistan’s Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, countering the pro-Iran Shia mobilisation in the country is increasingly becoming a headache. For Pakistan, countering this mobilisation is important as it is threatening to become bigger. However, the dilemma the establishment faces is that it cannot use its official machinery to take on the mobilisation of the Shias.

Pakistan has chosen to mediate between Iran and the United States, and hence it needs to remain neutral. Any direct action against the Shia mobilisation would infuriate Iran, and this is something that Islamabad wants to avoid.

An official said that Pakistan has now brought back its proxies to take on this problem. The Pakistan Army chief has ordered hardline Sunni elements and leaders from the Sipah-e-Sabah (SeS) and Jamaat-ud-Dawah (JuD) to take on the Shias who are mobilising in large numbers in support of Iran. These groups have, in the past, come to the rescue of the Pakistan establishment. When it comes to countering protesters who were seeking justice for jailed former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan, it was these elements who took to the streets.

The members of the SeS and JuD have the backing of the army and ISI and have been given a free hand to indulge in street violence against those who are questioning the establishment, an official said.

The SeS is a banned Sunni Deobandi Islamist organisation and a former political party that was founded in 1985. This outfit came into existence only to oppose Shia influence in Pakistan. The SeS has a history of being involved in sectarian conflicts, including violence with the Shia organisation, Shipah-e-Muhammad, Pakistan.

The JuD, on the other hand, is the charity wing of the Lashkar-e-Taiba. The JuD follows the Ahl-i Hadith interpretation of Islam, which is similar to Wahhabism and Salafism.

An Intelligence Bureau official said that by involving the SeS and JuD, the Pakistan army chief would look to put down the mobilisation of the Shia. Since these groups have no accountability, the violence would not be blamed on the state, but on two individual organisations. This helps in the deniability factor, when Pakistan speaks with Iran, the official added.

Such violence will no doubt be scrutinised internationally and by foreign Intelligence agencies. The establishment would, however, try to get away by putting the blame on the SeS and JuD, while stating that it has nothing to do with them.

Another official said that both groups have been given immunity by the establishment. This means that they can choose to act the way they please.

Another official said that with such a plan in place, one could anticipate street violence and bloody clashes with the Shias in Pakistan.

By trying to mediate between Iran and the US, Pakistan wants to place itself in a position of power. Pakistan also wants to claim geopolitical relevance by offering to mediate between the two warring nations.

Field Marshal Asim Munir has taken this task upon himself and has been engaging directly with Iranian President Masood Pezeshkian. He has also been leveraging his relations with some of the Gulf nations and the US.

With Pakistan wanting geopolitical relevance, it cannot afford to officially crush the mobilisation that is taking place in support of Iran. If Pakistan ends up angering Iran at this juncture, then Tehran may not come to the table. This would hurt Pakistan’s ambitions of playing mediator and reclaiming geopolitical importance, another official said.

The JuD and the SeS have readily accepted what the Pakistan army chief has said, as they have done in the past. Officials say that both these outfits have had an agenda against the Shias for a long time, and hence the offer made by Field Marshal Munir is more than welcome for them.

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International News

Backchannel talks shape US-Iran pause: Report

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Washington, March 24: A series of backchannel talks helped shape President Donald Trump’s decision to pause planned strikes on Iran, according to US media reports.

The Wall Street Journal reported that officials from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan were involved in closed-door discussions to find a way out of the conflict.

The White House, however, refrained from giving any details. “These are sensitive diplomatic discussions and the United States will not negotiate through the news media,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told media.

These efforts came as Trump’s 48-hour deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was about to expire. The ultimatum had raised fears of strikes on Iranian power infrastructure.

According to the media report, Arab officials worked to find contacts within Iran’s leadership. They explored options for a temporary halt in fighting to allow further talks.

Egyptian intelligence officials opened a channel with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which plays a key role in Tehran’s decisions.

At the same time, Oman was also trying to ease tensions. Oman’s foreign minister said the country was “working intensively to put in place safe passage arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz.”

The New York Times reported that the United States and Iran were exchanging messages through intermediaries. But there was no sign of direct talks. Iranian officials denied that negotiations were underway.

The push for diplomacy reflects growing concern in the region. Gulf countries face the risk of wider attacks. They are pressing for de-escalation.

Still, major differences remain. The Wall Street Journal said mediators were sceptical about a quick deal. The two sides are far apart on key issues, including Iran’s nuclear programme and security guarantees.

There have also been early discussions about possible meetings in neutral countries such as Pakistan or Turkey. No meeting has been confirmed.

US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are leading the outreach, according to reports.

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International News

Iran imposes $2 million transit fee on select ships in Strait of Hormuz

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Tehran, March 23: Iran has begun charging certain vessels a transit fee of $2 million (approximately Rs 18.8 crore) to pass through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, in what officials describe as a new assertion of control amid its ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated on X that the strait remains “open to everyone” — except for Iran’s adversaries — outlining Tehran’s latest stance on access to the crucial maritime route.

The policy has already been implemented, according to Iranian lawmaker Alaeddin Boroujerdi, who spoke to state broadcaster Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), as cited by Iran International. Boroujerdi said the move represents a shift toward what he called a new “sovereign regime” governing the waterway.

“Collecting $2 million as transit fees from some vessels crossing the strait reflects Iran’s strength,” Boroujerdi said.

“Now, because war has costs, naturally we must do this and take transit fees from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz,” he added, claiming the policy demonstrates the Islamic Republic’s “authority.”

Earlier, Iran’s Foreign Ministry said that the Strait of Hormuz is not blocked and navigation continues in the waterway, with necessary measures being taken due to wartime conditions.

In a statement elaborating on Iran’s positions amid ongoing US and Israeli attacks, the ministry said that Iran has always respected the freedom of navigation and maritime security and safety, adding that it has worked to uphold those principles over the years.

The ministry noted that following the US and Israeli military “aggression” against Iran, a dangerous situation has been imposed on the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, directly impacting regional shipping safety and security.

Claiming its legitimate right to self-defence against the “aggressors,” Iran has targeted US military bases and facilities in the region while adopting a series of measures to ensure that the “aggressors” and their supporters do not exploit the strait to advance their aggressive goals against the country, it said.

The announcement comes amid heightened tensions following a warning from former US President Donald Trump, who said the United States could strike Iran’s power infrastructure if the strait is not reopened within 48 hours.

Trump stated that if Iran failed to comply, the US would destroy its “various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!”

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