Business
India export ban shakes global wheat prices
Wheat prices increased after India imposed a ban on exports, stoking pressure on food costs as tight global supplies roiled international markets.
Futures traded in Chicago rose as much as 5.9 per cent to $12.47 a bushel, their highest level in two months, Financial Times reported.
Wheat prices have risen more than 60 per cent this year, driven up by disruption from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The two European countries account for almost a third of the world’s wheat exports.
India, the world’s second-biggest wheat producer after China, had filled a gap in markets left by decreased output from Ukraine thanks in part to a bumper harvest of 7 million tonnes last year, even as inclement weather reduced the crops of other big exporters.
But after denying it would halt exports, India reversed course over the weekend after domestic inflation surged to the highest level in eight years on the back of rising food prices, the Financial Times reported.
New Delhi said it was introducing the ban, with some exceptions, “in order to manage the overall food security of the country and to support the needs of the neighbouring and other vulnerable countries”.
“It just exacerbates the food shortage risk, particularly for developing nations and those historically dependent on foodstuffs out of that region,” said Robert Rennie, global head of market strategy at Australian bank Westpac.
The sudden shift followed two months of searing heatwaves in India, with temperatures of up to 45 degrees Celsius across swaths of the wheat belt.
Relief from the annual monsoon season could still be weeks away. Soaring food and fuel prices also prompted the Reserve Bank of India to raise interest rates this month for the first time in four years.
Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said the wheat export ban would be a “shape shifter” for global markets.
“The trade will likely need to replace at least some Indian wheat in the pipeline. We suspect that will create an initial flurry of trading but the market will take some time to assess the details,” the Financial Times quoted Gorey as saying.
The export ban was announced just days after the US Department of Agriculture forecast that global wheat production would drop for the first time in four years in 2022-23.
The World Food Programme said this month that the war in Ukraine had exposed the fragility of global supply chains to sudden shocks, with serious consequences for food security.
Westpac’s Rennie said the impact of the ban was likely to hit developing markets in Africa and the Middle East the hardest, as the developed world moved to shore up supply.
“It’s the humanitarian issues that are developing which, unfortunately, I think we should be more focused on,” he said.
Business
Gold dips 0.81 pc this week over waning hopes of Fed rate cuts

New Delhi, Gold prices dipped 0.81 per cent during the week as negotiations between the United States and Iran stalled, denting hopes for near‑term interest‑rate cuts.
On Friday, MCX gold June futures gained 0.01 per cent while MCX silver May futures inched up 0.49 per cent. Currently, gold futures stand at Rs 1,51,363, while silver futures stand at Rs 2,47,500 per kg.
The price of 10 grams of 24-carat gold was at Rs 1,50,263 on Thursday, down from Rs 1,51,495 seen on Monday market opening, according to data published by the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA).
In international markets, bullion dropped as much as 1.2 per cent on Friday after gaining 1.5 per cent in the previous session, weighed down by rising energy costs and firmer Treasury yields. Gold has fallen nearly 14 per cent since the US-Iran conflict began on February 28, 2026, traders said.
The Iranian administration maintained that the US blockade would have to end before the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened, according to multiple media reports. Iranian state media said that Tehran had delivered a fresh proposal for talks to Pakistani mediators, but both sides signalled they were waiting for the other to make the first move.
“While diplomatic engagements remained active, the absence of a decisive breakthrough kept the geopolitical risk premium firmly embedded in prices,” an analyst said.
US inflation data showed the headline PCE price index at 3.5 per cent in March, at its highest level in nearly three years, reinforcing the view that policy rates may stay higher for longer.
Analysts said that rising energy prices could lead to central banks maintaining interest rates higher for longer, which would pressure non-yielding assets like gold.
Crude oil traded with heightened volatility through the week but retained a firm undertone, holding near elevated levels as concerns around potential supply disruptions persisted. The market continues to price in risks to global oil flows, limiting meaningful downside and providing support on dips.
Precious metals entered a phase of corrective consolidation following their recent safe-haven rally, analysts said.
Gold and silver witnessed intermittent profit booking at higher levels through the week, while selective buying interest emerged near key support zones. Safe-haven demand has eased marginally but continues to lend support on declines amid lingering uncertainty.
COMEX gold traded near the $4,620–$4,650 zone, and a major resistance is seen at the $4,700–$4,760 levels. Overall, the trend remains constructive with a cautious near-term bias, with strength dependent on a breakout above resistance.
COMEX Silver is currently trading above $76, and the broader trend remains constructive but with a cautious near-term bias, market participants said.
Business
Global crude prices rise 0.73 pc as US-Iran talks stall

New Delhi, Crude oil prices rose on Friday as efforts to resolve the Iran crisis reached a stalemate, with Tehran continuing to block the Strait of Hormuz and Washington restricting Iranian crude exports.
Brent futures for July on Intercontinental Exchange gained $0.81, or 0.73 per cent, to $111.21 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose 31 cents, or 0.30 per cent, to $105.37. Both benchmarks have posted gains for four consecutive months, analysts noted.
Brent crude oil had crossed $120 per barrel for the first time in 4 years, heightening inflation concerns and putting pressure on global markets.
Market participants flagged new supply concerns after Brent’s June contract, which expired on Thursday, hit $126.41 a barrel, its highest level since March 2022.
British and European central banks cautioned about rising inflation, while the United States is working towards a coalition of allied countries and shipping companies to ensure secure transit through Hormuz.
A ceasefire though in effect since April 8 felt shaky, as on Thursday evening, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said it was unrealistic to expect quick outcomes from negotiations with the US, according to multiple reports.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has warned that rising oil prices due to the Middle East conflict are boosting inflation and complicating policy. Asia faces greater economic risks from the energy shock, he added.
The price of a 19-kg commercial LPG cylinder has been increased by Rs 993, starting Friday, and after the revision, a 19-kg cylinder will now cost Rs 3,071.5 in Delhi.
However, there has been no change in the price of domestic LPG cylinders for 33 crore users, the Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) said in a statement.
This is the third time that the price of a 19-kg commercial LPG cylinder has been increased since February 28, when the US-Israel and Iran war began.
Business
Sensex, Nifty fall nearly 1 pc as oil surge weighs on sentiment

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Mumbai, Indian equity benchmarks started Thursday’s session — the final trading day of the week — on a weaker note, with both indices declining nearly 1 per cent in early deals, as a sharp jump in crude oil prices dented sentiment and outweighed support from stock-specific earnings gains.
Sensex fell as much as 0.95 per cent or over 700 points to 76,759.37 in early trade, hitting an intraday low, while Nifty declined 0.96 per cent or more than 200 points to 23,943.45.
Selling pressure was broad-based, with auto, banking, realty, metal, consumer durables and FMCG stocks, falling up to 1 per cent. Eternal, Shriram Finance, IndiGo, M&M, Jio Financial Services, Tata Motors PV, Axis Bank, Grasim Industries, Asian Paints, ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank were among the top laggards.
While Nifty 100, Nifty Midcap, Nifty 200 and Nifty 500 indices declined by up to around 1 per cent. Meanwhile, the India VIX rose 2.7 per cent to 17.91, indicating heightened market volatility.
According to a market expert, two key headwinds could impact markets in the near term.
“Brent crude at around $120 threatens India’s macroeconomic stability. If prices remain elevated, it could pose downside risks to growth and push inflation higher,” the expert said.
“Secondly, stronger-than-expected results from AI majors in the US and South Korea may extend the ongoing AI trade, potentially leading to further portfolio outflows from India,” he added.
The Fed’s decision to hold rates was on expected lines and is unlikely to have a significant impact. However, the rise in US 10-year bond yields to 4.4 per cent could further incentivise capital outflows from India,” said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.
Exit polls indicating consolidation of the ruling party’s position may offer some sentiment support but do not materially alter market fundamentals.
“Investors can focus on companies reporting better-than-expected Q4 results and strong outlooks, where opportunities remain,” he said.
Oil prices rallied after US President Donald Trump reportedly held talks with oil companies on steps to reduce the impact of a potential prolonged blockade of Iran’s ports, raising concerns over possible disruptions to global crude supplies.
Separately, the US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, broadly in line with expectations, while cautioning about inflation risks stemming from the Iran conflict. Market participants have also pared back expectations of rate cuts in 2026.
Crude oil prices are approaching their 52-week highs of $114.81. Brent crude was trading at $113.18 per barrel, up 2.48 per cent from the previous close, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $109.64 per barrel, also higher on the day.
However, Brent crude hovered close to $120 per barrel after surging over 6 per cent on Wednesday to its highest level since June 2022.
In Asian markets, indices were mixed. Japan’s Nikkei and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng were down over 1 per cent, South Korea’s KOSPI declined 0.40 per cent, while Singapore’s Straits Times gained 0.65 per cent.
On Wall Street, US markets ended on a flat note, with the S&P 500 settling at 7,135.95, down 0.04 per cent, and the Nasdaq finishing at 24,673.24, up 0.04 per cent.
Notably, domestic equity markets will remain shut for trading on Friday, May 1, in observance of Maharashtra Day.
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