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India export ban shakes global wheat prices

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Wheat prices increased after India imposed a ban on exports, stoking pressure on food costs as tight global supplies roiled international markets.

Futures traded in Chicago rose as much as 5.9 per cent to $12.47 a bushel, their highest level in two months, Financial Times reported.

Wheat prices have risen more than 60 per cent this year, driven up by disruption from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The two European countries account for almost a third of the world’s wheat exports.

India, the world’s second-biggest wheat producer after China, had filled a gap in markets left by decreased output from Ukraine thanks in part to a bumper harvest of 7 million tonnes last year, even as inclement weather reduced the crops of other big exporters.

But after denying it would halt exports, India reversed course over the weekend after domestic inflation surged to the highest level in eight years on the back of rising food prices, the Financial Times reported.

New Delhi said it was introducing the ban, with some exceptions, “in order to manage the overall food security of the country and to support the needs of the neighbouring and other vulnerable countries”.

“It just exacerbates the food shortage risk, particularly for developing nations and those historically dependent on foodstuffs out of that region,” said Robert Rennie, global head of market strategy at Australian bank Westpac.

The sudden shift followed two months of searing heatwaves in India, with temperatures of up to 45 degrees Celsius across swaths of the wheat belt.

Relief from the annual monsoon season could still be weeks away. Soaring food and fuel prices also prompted the Reserve Bank of India to raise interest rates this month for the first time in four years.

Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said the wheat export ban would be a “shape shifter” for global markets.

“The trade will likely need to replace at least some Indian wheat in the pipeline. We suspect that will create an initial flurry of trading but the market will take some time to assess the details,” the Financial Times quoted Gorey as saying.

The export ban was announced just days after the US Department of Agriculture forecast that global wheat production would drop for the first time in four years in 2022-23.

The World Food Programme said this month that the war in Ukraine had exposed the fragility of global supply chains to sudden shocks, with serious consequences for food security.

Westpac’s Rennie said the impact of the ban was likely to hit developing markets in Africa and the Middle East the hardest, as the developed world moved to shore up supply.

“It’s the humanitarian issues that are developing which, unfortunately, I think we should be more focused on,” he said.

Business

Govt asks Meta to review Facebook and Instagram recommendation systems

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The Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) has asked technology giant firm Meta to review the content recommendation and ranking systems that power Facebook and Instagram, stepping up regulatory scrutiny of how social media algorithms amplify information in India, according to multiple reports.

In an advisory issued to the company, the ministry had asked Meta to ensure that its recommendation systems do not lead to the disproportionate exposure of users to a single or limited set of narratives and instead provide greater access to diverse, relevant and credible information, according to them.

The ministry also directed Meta to strengthen mechanisms for rapidly identifying, reviewing and escalating content that gains significant reach through recommendation systems when such material has the potential to contribute to public confusion, violence or disruption of public order.

Apart from that, the US-based company has been asked to implement the measures immediately and inform the government of the action taken.

The advisory specifically highlights photographs, videos and graphics related to ongoing public events where the authenticity, timing, location or surrounding circumstances may be unclear.

It calls for additional context where old or unrelated visuals are presented as current, where footage has been selectively edited or where unverified claims are made regarding emergencies, police action or other official measures.

Additionally, this marks the latest escalation in the government’s scrutiny of Meta’s moderation and recommendation systems.

Earlier in August, government officials questioned Meta executives over content recommendation algorithms, deepfakes, synthetic media and safeguards against unlawful content.

Meta has separately tightened content and advertising safeguards following concerns related to child sexual exploitation material.

The company said earlier this month it deployed new AI-driven advertising review systems and removed 5.3 million pieces of child sexual exploitation content in India during January-June 2026, with more than 98% detected proactively.

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Sensex, Nifty open flat amid mixed global cues

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Domestic equity benchmarks opened on a flat note on Monday tracking mixed global cues and momentum from last week’s gains.

Sensex opened at 74,849.30, up 120.03 points or 0.16 per cent, while Nifty began trading at 23,150.85, up 4.70 points or 0.02 per cent.

Sectorally, Nifty PSU Bank led gains and rose over 1 per cent, followed by Nifty Oil & Gas which surged 0.6 per cent.

In contrast, Nifty Private Bank, Nifty IT and Nifty Chemicals dropped up to 1 per cent.

Market experts said momentum from Nifty’s 2.8 per cent surge last week and good results from banking majors after better-than-expected IT earnings could keep the market resilient.

“However, escalation of tensions in Hormuz and consequent surge in Brent crude to $109 will act as a strong headwind,” according to them.

They further said that attractive large-cap valuations and rupee appreciation turned FII stance slightly positive, though unlikely to sustain at high crude prices. Large-caps outperforming mid and small-caps is likely to continue, with stock-specific action on Q2 results.

For Nifty, immediate support is placed at 22,950–23,000, while resistance is seen at 23,250–23,300, the experts said and added that RSI strengthened to 52.81 above its average of 34.70, while PCR stood at 1.08.

In the previous session on October 16, FIIs turned net buyers after 15 straight sessions of selling, buying equities worth about Rs 1,166 crore, while DIIs ended their 45-session buying streak with net sales of around Rs 3,661 crore.

On commodities, Brent crude traded nearly 2 per cent lower at around $107.76 per barrel, while US WTI declined about 1 per cent to $100.43.

In Asia, markets were mixed. Japan’s Nikkei traded 0.84 per cent lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and South Korea’s KOSPI rose up to 0.83 per cent. Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite fell over 5 per cent.

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India-EFTA trade pact opens new opportunities for Norwegian investment across key sectors

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India’s strong economic growth trajectory and the implementation of the India-EFTA Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA) are creating significant opportunities for Norwegian investors, particularly in manufacturing, renewable energy, infrastructure, financial services and the digital economy, according to industry insights.

With GDP growth projected to remain around 6.5 per cent annually through 2030, India is widely expected to become the world’s third-largest economy by the end of the decade, according to EY India report.

Analysts attribute this outlook to strong domestic consumption, rising investments, ongoing infrastructure development and reforms aimed at improving the ease of doing business.

The India-EFTA TEPA, which came into effect in October 2025, is being viewed as a major milestone in India-Norway economic relations.

The agreement seeks to promote trade liberalisation, facilitate investment flows and deepen cooperation in areas such as innovation, sustainability and advanced technologies.

The pact includes investment commitments of $100 billion over 15 years and is expected to support the creation of one million direct jobs in India, aligning with the country’s broader goals of expanding manufacturing capacity and strengthening its position in global value chains.

Industry experts believe the agreement creates a strong framework for Norwegian companies to expand their presence in India by combining Norway’s expertise in technology, sustainability and capital-intensive industries with India’s large market and growth ambitions.

Several sectors have been identified as priority areas for collaboration, including manufacturing, renewable energy, oil and gas, maritime services, seafood processing, information and communication technology (ICT), fintech and financial services. These industries are expected to benefit from increasing bilateral cooperation under the TEPA framework.

The rapid expansion of India’s digital economy and digital payments ecosystem is also creating opportunities for Norwegian companies seeking exposure to one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing consumer markets.

At the same time, India’s policy measures aimed at attracting foreign investment are expected to provide a supportive environment for long-term investors, as per the report.

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