Business
ICRA cuts India’s FY23 GDP growth forecast to 7.2%
Ratings agency ICRA has lowered India’s FY23 GDP growth forecast to 7.2 per cent from an earlier projection of 8 per cent.
Besides, the rating agency projected GDP expansion in FY22 at 8.5 per cent, which is modestly lower than the National Statistical Office’s (NSO’s) second advance estimate of 8.9 per cent.
“Following the elevated commodity prices and fresh supply chain issues arising from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as the renewed lockdowns in parts of China, we have pared our forecast of India’s real GDP growth in FY2023 to 7.2 per cent from 8 per cent,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA.
“Higher prices of fuels and items such as edible oils are likely to compress disposable incomes in the mid to lower income segments, constraining the demand revival in FY2023.”
However, she cited that the prescient extension of free foodgrains under Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Ann Yojana (PMGKAY) until September 2022 may continue to offer some respite to the food budgets of vulnerable households.
“In the mid to upper income segments, normalisation of behaviours after the third wave is set to result in a pivot of consumption towards the contact-intensive services that were avoided during the pandemic, constraining the growth in demand for goods in FY2023,” she said.
Furthermore, the agency pointed out a gradual rise in the capacity utilisation to 74-75 per cent in Q3FY23 from 71-72 per cent in Q4FY22, leading to a potential modest delay in the awaited broad-basing of capacity expansion by the private sector.
At present, capacity expansion is being undertaken in select sectors such as cement, steel, as well as sectors covered under the PLI schemes.
As per ICRA, an early kick-off of the Government of India’s (GoI’s) budgeted capex programme remains crucial to boost investment activity in H1FY23.
However, concerns have been raised as the execution risk is shifting to the states, with a considerable portion of the step-up in the GoI’s budgeted capital spending coming through the enlargement in the size of interest-free capex loan to the state governments to Rs 1 trillion in FY23 from Rs 0.15 trillion in FY22.
“Moreover, the K-shaped recovery appears likely to continue with the formal sector gaining market share in FY2023,” Nayar added.
In addition, ICRA noted that the economic activity rebounded post the rapid abatement of the third wave of Covid-19 in February 2022 and the lifting of the state-wise restrictions.
“As expected, the third wave had a much smaller impact on the confidence levels relative to the first two waves. While the early data for March 2022 is mixed, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the associated surge in commodity prices has heightened uncertainty, and the expected margin compression is likely to squeeze GVA growth,” the ratings agency said.
“ICRA expects the YoY growth in real GDP to moderate to 3-4 per cent in Q4FY22 from 5.4 per cent in Q3FY22. The YoY expansion in real GDP is, therefore, projected at 8.5 per cent in FY2022, a mild rise of 1.3 per cent relative to FY2020 levels.”
Business
Indian stock markets end higher after two days of losses

Mumbai, Nov 3: Indian equity markets ended a volatile session on a positive note on Monday, snapping a two-day losing streak.
Gains in real estate and state-owned bank stocks helped lift the indices despite early weakness.
After opening lower, the Sensex recovered to touch an intra-day high of 84,127 before closing 39.78 points, or 0.05 per cent, higher at 83,978.49.
The Nifty also gained 41.25 points, or 0.16 per cent, to end at 25,763.35.
“The Nifty oscillated between 25,700 and 25,800 through the day, showing resilience after briefly dipping below the October 24 low of 25,718,” analysts said.
“The zone between 25,660–25,700 once again acted as a strong demand pocket, helping the index recover intraday losses and maintain a constructive tone ahead of key global data releases,” they added.
Among the Sensex stocks, Maruti Suzuki fell over 3 per cent and was among the top losers along with Titan Company, BEL, TCS, ITC, NTPC, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Steel and tech Mahindra.
On the other hand, Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, and HCL Tech were the major gainers.
In the broader markets, the Nifty MidCap index rose 0.77 per cent, while the Nifty SmallCap index advanced 0.72 per cent, showing strength beyond the frontline stocks.
Among sectoral indices, PSU bank shares led the rally, with the Nifty PSU Bank index climbing 1.92 per cent.
Bank of Baroda surged 5 per cent, while Canara Bank, Bank of Maharashtra, Bank of India, and Indian Bank also gained.
The Nifty Metal and Realty indices also added up to 2 per cent each.
Meanwhile, the FMCG, Private Bank, and IT indices slipped up to 0.4 per cent, capping the market’s overall gains.
Analysts said that despite mixed global cues and cautious investor sentiment, buying in select sectors helped the markets end the day in the green.
“The domestic market ended on a marginal positive note as profit booking was visible at the higher levels due to the absence of fresh domestic triggers,” market watchers said.
“While the broader market outperformed since the quarterly earnings are steering investors’ preference to take a short- to medium-term view,” they mentioned.
Business
India’s manufacturing growth picks up in Oct due to robust domestic demand: PMI data

New Delhi, Nov 3: India’s manufacturing sector growth surged in the month of October, fuelled by strong domestic demand, GST 2.0 reforms, productivity gains and increased technology investments, a report said on Monday.
The HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 59.2 in October from 57.7 in September, according to data compiled by US-based financial intelligence provider S&P Global.
The increase stemmed from quicker growth in new orders and factory output at the beginning of the third financial quarter, driven by boost in advertising and recent GST reforms, the report said.
The expansion rate matched levels seen in August, which was one of the strongest in the last five years, it indicated.
A reading above 50 indicates economic expansion, while one below 50 shows contraction in the manufacturing, services, or construction sectors. A reading of exactly 50 signifies flat activity.
The manufacturing PMI acceleration comes from robust end-demand fuelled expansions in output, new orders, and job creation, said Pranjul Bhandari, chief India economist at HSBC.
Meanwhile, input prices moderated in October while average selling prices increased as some manufacturers passed on additional cost burdens to end-consumers, Bhandari added.
Despite input cost inflation easing to an eight-month low, output charge inflation remained at its highest level in 12 years for the second consecutive month.
Companies reported passing on higher freight and labour costs to customers, while strong demand allowed them to maintain elevated prices.
Domestic sales growth outpaced export orders, which grew more slowly even with some improvement in overseas demand. Employment creation continued for the twentieth straight month in October, with hiring remaining moderate and largely consistent with September’s levels, it noted.
Manufacturers remain optimistic about future business conditions, crediting their optimism to GST reforms, capacity expansion, and stronger marketing efforts, the report noted.
Business
Commercial LPG cylinder prices reduced across metros from November 1

New Delhi, Nov 1: State-run oil marketing companies have reduced commercial LPG cylinder prices across metros, offering a slight relief to businesses, starting from Saturday.
The move will provide marginal relief to thousands of small and medium-sized businesses.
According to the latest revision announced by state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs), the 19-kg commercial LPG cylinder will now cost Rs 1,590.50 in Delhi, reflecting a Rs 5 cut from the previous rate of Rs 1,595.50.
With the highest drop of Rs 6.50 per cylinder among the metros, the charge in Kolkata will now be Rs 1,694 per cylinder. Chennai will now charge Rs 1,750 (down Rs 4.50), while Mumbai now charges Rs 1,542 (down Rs 5).
For businesses that depend significantly on LPG for their everyday operations, like restaurants, hotels, and catering services, the most recent revision provides a small reprieve following a hike of Rs 15.50 that was put into effect late in September.
However, domestic LPG prices have not changed and are the same in every city.
Earlier in September, OMCs had reduced the price of commercial LPG gas cylinders by Rs 51.50. Following the revision, a 19-kg commercial LPG cylinder in Delhi was available at Rs 1,580.
Earlier, OMCs had reduced the price of a 19 kg commercial LPG gas cylinder by Rs 33.50. Before that, prices had been reduced by Rs 58.50 on July 1.
Earlier in June, oil firms had announced a Rs 24 cut for commercial cylinders, setting the rate at Rs 1,723.50. In April, the price stood at Rs 1,762. February saw a small Rs 7 reduction, but March reversed this slightly with a Rs 6 increase.
Meanwhile, the Centre had announced to provide 2.5 million free LPG connections under the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) during the festival season.
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