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ICRA cuts India’s FY23 GDP growth forecast to 7.2%

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Ratings agency ICRA has lowered India’s FY23 GDP growth forecast to 7.2 per cent from an earlier projection of 8 per cent.

Besides, the rating agency projected GDP expansion in FY22 at 8.5 per cent, which is modestly lower than the National Statistical Office’s (NSO’s) second advance estimate of 8.9 per cent.

“Following the elevated commodity prices and fresh supply chain issues arising from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as the renewed lockdowns in parts of China, we have pared our forecast of India’s real GDP growth in FY2023 to 7.2 per cent from 8 per cent,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA.

“Higher prices of fuels and items such as edible oils are likely to compress disposable incomes in the mid to lower income segments, constraining the demand revival in FY2023.”

However, she cited that the prescient extension of free foodgrains under Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Ann Yojana (PMGKAY) until September 2022 may continue to offer some respite to the food budgets of vulnerable households.

“In the mid to upper income segments, normalisation of behaviours after the third wave is set to result in a pivot of consumption towards the contact-intensive services that were avoided during the pandemic, constraining the growth in demand for goods in FY2023,” she said.

Furthermore, the agency pointed out a gradual rise in the capacity utilisation to 74-75 per cent in Q3FY23 from 71-72 per cent in Q4FY22, leading to a potential modest delay in the awaited broad-basing of capacity expansion by the private sector.

At present, capacity expansion is being undertaken in select sectors such as cement, steel, as well as sectors covered under the PLI schemes.

As per ICRA, an early kick-off of the Government of India’s (GoI’s) budgeted capex programme remains crucial to boost investment activity in H1FY23.

However, concerns have been raised as the execution risk is shifting to the states, with a considerable portion of the step-up in the GoI’s budgeted capital spending coming through the enlargement in the size of interest-free capex loan to the state governments to Rs 1 trillion in FY23 from Rs 0.15 trillion in FY22.

“Moreover, the K-shaped recovery appears likely to continue with the formal sector gaining market share in FY2023,” Nayar added.

In addition, ICRA noted that the economic activity rebounded post the rapid abatement of the third wave of Covid-19 in February 2022 and the lifting of the state-wise restrictions.

“As expected, the third wave had a much smaller impact on the confidence levels relative to the first two waves. While the early data for March 2022 is mixed, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the associated surge in commodity prices has heightened uncertainty, and the expected margin compression is likely to squeeze GVA growth,” the ratings agency said.

“ICRA expects the YoY growth in real GDP to moderate to 3-4 per cent in Q4FY22 from 5.4 per cent in Q3FY22. The YoY expansion in real GDP is, therefore, projected at 8.5 per cent in FY2022, a mild rise of 1.3 per cent relative to FY2020 levels.”

Business

CBI files case against Anil Ambani, RCom in Rs 3,750 crore LIC case

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New Delhi, April 1: The Central Bureau of Investigation on Wednesday registered a case against Reliance Communications Ltd (RCom), Anil Ambani, unknown public servants, and unknown others on allegations of causing wrongful loss of Rs 3,750 crore to Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) of India.

The case has been registered on the basis of a complaint received from Life Insurance Corporation of India Ltd. for offences of conspiracy, cheating, misappropriation, and offences under the Prevention of Corruption Act, according to an official statement.

It is alleged that LIC was fraudulently induced to subscribe to Non Convertible Debentures (NCDs) worth Rs 4,500 crore on the basis of false representations made by Reliance Communications Ltd. and its management regarding the financial health of the company, and security and asset cover offered to LIC while subscribing to the NCDs.

The LIC has made this complaint on basis of a forensic audit report dated October 15, 2020 conducted by BDO India LLP, which reported that RCom and its management had resorted to misutilisation of funds raised from banks and financial institutions, routing of funds through subsidiaries, misuse of sale invoice financing, discounting of fictitious bills, systematic siphoning of funds through inter-company deposits and shell related entities, creating and write-off of fictitious debtors and receivables and gross overstatement of security. There was a mismatch between the charges and the assets.

Investigation of the case is in progress, the statement added.

The CBI had earlier registered three cases against RCom Ltd, Anil Ambani, and others on allegations of defrauding a number of banks.

Anil Ambani was also interrogated by the CBI at its head office in Delhi for two days in a row in connection with the alleged Rs 2,929.05 crore SBI fraud case.

The CBI had registered an FIR on August 21, 2025, following a complaint filed by the SBI, in which Reliance Communications Limited, Anil D. Ambani and others, including unknown public servants, are accused.

The State Bank of India (SBI) is the lead bank in the consortium of 11 banks — Bank of India, Central Bank of India, UCO Bank, Union Bank of India, e-Corporation Bank, Canara Bank, e-Syndicate Bank, Indian Overseas Bank, IDBI Bank Limited, and e-Oriental Bank of Commerce that had extended loans to the Anil Ambani group.

The complaint is based on a forensic audit report that alleges large-scale diversion and misutilisation of loan funds through interlinked and circuitous transactions among group entities during the period 2013-17, resulting in wrongful loss of Rs 2929.05 crore to the SBI out of total exposure of Rs 19, 694.33 crores involving 17 public sector banks, according to an official statement.

Subsequent to the registration of the case, separate complaints were received from the Punjab National Bank, the Bank of India, the Union Bank of India, the UCO Bank, the Central Bank of India, the IDBI Bank, and the Bank of Maharashtra. Further, another case has been registered against Reliance Communications Limited, Anil Ambani and others unknown, including unknown public servants, on February 25 on the basis of a complaint dated February 24, received from the Bank of Baroda, which includes exposure of e-Dena Bank and e-Vijaya Bank.

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Gold loans top retail credit market in India, account for 36 pc volume: Report

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New Delhi, March 31: Gold loans have emerged as the leading segment in India’s retail credit market, accounting for loan volumes at 36 per cent and around 40 per cent by value, driven by rising gold prices and increasing consumer preference for secured borrowing, a report said on Tuesday.

The report by TransUnion CIBIL showed that the surge has been supported by a sharp increase in ticket sizes, with the average gold loan amount rising significantly over the past two years to around Rs 1.9 lakh in the December 2025 quarter.

The report also noted that the consumer market indicator (CMI) — a major gauge of credit market health — rose to 102 in the December 2025 quarter, up from 97 a year ago and 100 in the preceding September quarter which is the third consecutive quarter of improvement.

It further highlighted that gold prices have encouraged consumers to unlock value from their holdings, leading to a strong rise in both loan demand and disbursements.

Notably, gold loans are witnessing expansion beyond their traditional stronghold in southern India, with faster growth now seen in northern and western states such as Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.

The segment is also attracting a more diverse borrower base, with over half of the loans being availed by prime and above-category customers, indicating growing acceptance of gold loans as a mainstream credit product.

The report noted that while credit supply eased following festive demand and GST-related momentum, the moderation reflects seasonal trends rather than a structural slowdown.

Demand for credit remained strong, particularly in semi-urban and rural areas, with non-metro regions accounting for 54 per cent of the total borrower base, up three percentage points year-on-year. The share of new-to-credit consumers also increased to 15 per cent.

Meanwhile, auto loans saw stable volumes during the post-festive period, supported by demand in the affordable mid-segment category, while supply in the segment rose on a daily average basis compared to the previous year.

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Centre okays Berth redevelopment at New Mangalore Port to boost maritime efficiency

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New Delhi, March 30: The government has approved the proposal of New Mangalore Port Authority (NMPA) for the redevelopment of Berth No. 9 for handling liquid bulk cargo on a Public-Private Partnership (PPP) basis under the DBFOT model, it was announced on Monday.

The approval for implementation was conveyed on March 25, 2026, in a major step towards augmenting India’s port infrastructure and strengthening maritime logistics, according to the Minister of Ports, Shipping and Waterways.

With an estimated project cost of Rs 438.29 crore, the redevelopment will be undertaken by a private concessionaire selected through an open competitive bidding process (single-stage, two-envelope system).

The project will have a capacity of 10.90 MTPA, and the concessionaire will commit to a Minimum Guaranteed Cargo (MGC) of 7.63 MTPA by the 5th year of operations. The construction period is 2 years, with a concession period of 30 years, inclusive of construction.

The project envisages the dismantling of legacy infrastructure and comprehensive redevelopment of Berth No. 9 to handle liquid bulk cargo such as crude oil, petroleum products (POL), and LPG.

“As part of the modernisation, the berth draft will be enhanced from the existing 10.5 metres to 14 metres, with a future-ready design provision up to 19.8 metres, enabling the port to accommodate vessels up to 2,00,000 DWT, including Very Large Gas Carriers (VLGCs),” said the ministry.

“This transformative project is a reflection of the visionary leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, under whom India’s maritime infrastructure is being modernised at an unprecedented pace,” said Minister of Ports, Shipping and Waterways, Sarbananda Sonowal.

By replacing ageing facilities with world-class marine infrastructure, enhancing cargo handling capacity to 10.90 MTPA, and enabling the handling of larger vessels including VLGCs, “we are positioning our ports to meet future energy and trade demands while strengthening India’s role as a global maritime leader”, he added.

The project will replace nearly 50-year-old structures with modern marine infrastructure designed for a 50-year structural life, ensuring long-term sustainability and resilience.

The enhanced capacity will strengthen the port’s ability to meet the growing regional demand for liquid bulk cargo, particularly energy commodities.

By enabling the handling of larger vessels and VLGCs, the project will improve economies of scale, reduce logistics costs, and enhance overall port competitiveness, said the ministry.

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