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ICRA cuts India’s FY23 GDP growth forecast to 7.2%

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Ratings agency ICRA has lowered India’s FY23 GDP growth forecast to 7.2 per cent from an earlier projection of 8 per cent.

Besides, the rating agency projected GDP expansion in FY22 at 8.5 per cent, which is modestly lower than the National Statistical Office’s (NSO’s) second advance estimate of 8.9 per cent.

“Following the elevated commodity prices and fresh supply chain issues arising from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as the renewed lockdowns in parts of China, we have pared our forecast of India’s real GDP growth in FY2023 to 7.2 per cent from 8 per cent,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA.

“Higher prices of fuels and items such as edible oils are likely to compress disposable incomes in the mid to lower income segments, constraining the demand revival in FY2023.”

However, she cited that the prescient extension of free foodgrains under Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Ann Yojana (PMGKAY) until September 2022 may continue to offer some respite to the food budgets of vulnerable households.

“In the mid to upper income segments, normalisation of behaviours after the third wave is set to result in a pivot of consumption towards the contact-intensive services that were avoided during the pandemic, constraining the growth in demand for goods in FY2023,” she said.

Furthermore, the agency pointed out a gradual rise in the capacity utilisation to 74-75 per cent in Q3FY23 from 71-72 per cent in Q4FY22, leading to a potential modest delay in the awaited broad-basing of capacity expansion by the private sector.

At present, capacity expansion is being undertaken in select sectors such as cement, steel, as well as sectors covered under the PLI schemes.

As per ICRA, an early kick-off of the Government of India’s (GoI’s) budgeted capex programme remains crucial to boost investment activity in H1FY23.

However, concerns have been raised as the execution risk is shifting to the states, with a considerable portion of the step-up in the GoI’s budgeted capital spending coming through the enlargement in the size of interest-free capex loan to the state governments to Rs 1 trillion in FY23 from Rs 0.15 trillion in FY22.

“Moreover, the K-shaped recovery appears likely to continue with the formal sector gaining market share in FY2023,” Nayar added.

In addition, ICRA noted that the economic activity rebounded post the rapid abatement of the third wave of Covid-19 in February 2022 and the lifting of the state-wise restrictions.

“As expected, the third wave had a much smaller impact on the confidence levels relative to the first two waves. While the early data for March 2022 is mixed, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the associated surge in commodity prices has heightened uncertainty, and the expected margin compression is likely to squeeze GVA growth,” the ratings agency said.

“ICRA expects the YoY growth in real GDP to moderate to 3-4 per cent in Q4FY22 from 5.4 per cent in Q3FY22. The YoY expansion in real GDP is, therefore, projected at 8.5 per cent in FY2022, a mild rise of 1.3 per cent relative to FY2020 levels.”

Business

Sensex crosses 81,000 Mark, Nifty Jumps 157 Points On Strong Metal & Auto Stocks

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Mumbai: The Indian stock market ended Monday on a strong note, with the BSE Sensex rising 418.81 points (0.52%) to close at 81,018.72, crossing the key 81,000 mark. During the day, it touched a high of 81,093.19. The NSE Nifty also surged by 157.40 points (0.64%) to end at 24,722.75, after hitting an intraday high of 24,734.65.

Top gainers and losers

Among major gainers on the Sensex were Tata Steel, BEL, Adani Ports, TCS, Tech Mahindra, Bharti Airtel, HCL Tech, Trent, M&M, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement and L&T.

On the flip side, Power Grid, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Hindustan Unilever ended the session with losses.

Why the market rallied

The market’s rally was mainly driven by strong performances in the metal and auto sectors. According to experts, a weakening US dollar, strong auto sales, and positive Q1 results from key companies helped boost investor confidence.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, said,

“Consumption-driven companies are showing recovery in volume demand. Also, weak US job data may lead to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.”

Global cues positive

Asian markets mostly ended in the green with Hong Kong, South Korea, and China posting gains. However, Japan’s Nikkei closed in red.

European markets were trading positively, while US markets had ended lower on Friday.

Oil prices also slipped, with Brent crude falling 1.15% to USD 68.87 per barrel.

Meanwhile, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold shares worth Rs 3,366.40 crore on Friday, as per exchange data.

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Business

India Lost ₹22,842 Crore To Cybercriminals & Fraudsters In 2024: DataLEADS

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India lost Rs 22,842 crore to cybercriminals and fraudsters in 2024, DataLEADS, a Delhi-based media and tech company, said in its report on widespread digital financial frauds in the country. The amount stolen by digital criminals and fraudsters last year was nearly three times more than the Rs 7,465 crore in 2023 and almost 10 times more than the Rs 2,306 in 2022, DataLEADS said in ‘Contours of Cybercrime: Persistent and Emerging Risk of Online Financial Frauds and Deepfakes in India.

Prediction For Cyber-Crime Frauds

The Indian Cybercrime Coordination Centre, I4C, a federal agency that liaises between state and central law enforcement, predicts Indians will lose over Rs 1.2 lakh crore this year. The number of cybercrime complaints has spiked similarly; nearly twenty lakh were reported in 2024, up from around 15.6 lakh the year before and ten times more than were logged in 2019.

The surge in the number of cybercrime complaints and the volume of money lost points to one inescapable conclusion – India’s digital crooks are getting smarter and more efficient, and, in a country with a staggering nearly 290 lakh unemployed people, their ranks are increasing.

Bank-related frauds have increased dramatically; the Reserve Bank of India reported a nearly eightfold jump in the first half of FY 2025/26 compared to the same period last year. And the amount of money lost was staggering – Rs 2,623 crore to Rs 21,367 crore. Private sector banks accounted for nearly 60 per cent of all such incidents. But it was customers in public sector banks who were worst-hit; they lost Rs 25,667 crore in all.

Why have these numbers jumped so much over the past three years?

Because of the increased use of digital payment modes – i.e., smartphone-enabled services like Paytm and PhonePe – and the sharing and processing of financial details online – via (what many believe are encrypted and fail-safe) messaging platforms like WhatsApp and Telegram.

Federal data says there were over 190 lakh UPI, or unified payment interface, transactions in June 2025 alone, and these were worth a combined Rs 24.03 lakh crore. Digital payments’ value has grown from roughly Rs 162 crore in 2013 to Rs 18,120.82 crore in January 2025, and India accounts for nearly half of all such payments worldwide.

COVID-19

Much of this increase can be attributed to the pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns.

During COVID-19, the government pushed for a switch to UPI apps like Paytm to ensure social distancing and minimise contact with currency notes, via which the virus could be transmitted.

Digital Payment Tools In Rural Areas

The government also reasoned that digital payment tools would ensure greater penetration of financial services, particularly in rural areas. By 2019, India already had 440 million smartphone users and data rates were among the cheapest in the world – 1 GB cost Rs 200, or less than $3.

Insurance sector scams were also common. These included life, health, vehicle, and general, and are becoming an increasingly lucrative option for cybercriminals, particularly as insurance companies urge customers to opt for app-based services.

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Business

Mukesh Ambani Planning To Introduce ₹52,200 Crore Worth IPO, Reliance To List Jio Infocomm In Stock Market

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Reliance Industries Limited (RIL), led by the country’s richest man Mukesh Ambani, is planning to bring the biggest IPO ever. RIL is preparing to list its telecom business, Jio Infocomm, in the stock market. This IPO can be worth Rs 52,200 crore (about $6 billion).

Reliance Starts Informal Talks With SEBI

According to a Bloomberg report, Reliance has started informal talks with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to get approval to sell just 5% stake in Jio. If this approval is received, this IPO will break the record of Hyundai Motor India’s Rs 28,000 crore IPO.

Actually, under the current rules of SEBI, companies have to sell at least a 25% stake for public float. But Reliance has told SEBI that the Indian market does not have the capacity to bear such a big offer. Therefore, the company is seeking an exemption to sell 5% stake.

When Will The IPO Launch?

According to Bloomberg sources, this IPO can be launched in the early months of next year, although its size and timing will depend on the market situation. If this plan is successful, it will be the country’s largest IPO.

Jio’s IPO will give an opportunity to big foreign investors like Meta Platforms and Alphabet Inc. (Google) to sell their stake. In 2020, both these companies invested more than $20 billion in Jio Platforms. During this period, Jio’s valuation was $58 billion.

Which Other Investors Have Invested In Jio?

Apart from this, investors like KKR, General Atlantic, and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority have also invested heavily in Jio. Market experts say that Jio’s valuation can be more than $100 billion. However, Reliance wants to increase its income and subscriber base further before the IPO so that the valuation can be increased further.

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