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Gold, silver continue to touch new highs as US dollar weakens

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Mumbai, Jan 27: Gold and silver prices surged to record highs on Tuesday, amid persistent weakness in the US dollar and expectations of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve.

MCX gold February futures rose 1.48 per cent to Rs 1,58,343 per 10 grams. Meanwhile, MCX silver March futures rose 6.56 per cent to Rs 3,56,670 per kg.

Earlier in the day, gold had peaked to Rs 1,59,820 per 10 grams, up 2.4 per cent, before profit-booking eased the price level.

International markets also saw gold and silver touching record highs, as geopolitical risks drove investors to safe-haven assets. Renewed fears of a government shutdown in the US and President Donald Trump’s new threats of 25 per cent tariffs on South Korean automobiles, lumber, and pharmaceutical imports added fuel to trade tensions. Trump also warned Canada of a 100 per cent tariff if it makes a deal with China.

US gold futures April contracts rose around 1 per cent to $5,113.70 per troy ounce as the dollar index eased by 0.1 per cent, making bullion cheaper in overseas currencies.

Persistent safe-haven demand, steady central-bank accumulation, and expectations of accommodative global monetary conditions continue to underpin prices.

COMEX Silver has surged beyond the $99 mark, registering fresh lifetime highs.

Meanwhile, the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in the US this week is expected to hold interest rates steady but traders expect at least two rate cuts later in the year.

“Market focus has now shifted to the upcoming Federal Reserve decision, although speculation around political pressure on the central bank continues to dominate. These developments have strengthened the debasement trade, triggering strong inflows into silver and other precious metals,” said Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities Ltd.

“Gold has support at Rs 1,57,050 to Rs 1,55,310 zone while resistance at Rs 1,59,850 and Rs 1,62,950. Silver has support at Rs 3,38,810 and Rs 3,22,170 while resistance at Rs 3,55,810 and Rs 3,62,470,” the analyst said.

Another analyst forecasts that gold is expected to hit Rs 1,65,000 per 10 gram and silver to reach Rs 3,65,000 per kg in the upcoming sessions.

Silver’s sharp surge from Rs 60,000 to Rs 3,20,000 could lead to a phase of consolidation at elevated levels or rebalancing by market participants becomes more likely, according to a recent report.

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US-Iran peace pact a major breakthrough, global economy to rebound: Industry

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New Delhi, June 15: Business chamber Assocham on Monday welcomed the peace deal between the USA and Iran as a major breakthrough that would benefit the entire world and bring the global economy back on the growth path.

Assocham president Nirmal K Minda said, “The peace deal had been awaited for many weeks. This is a major breakthrough between the USA and Iran for the benefit of the whole world, as war benefits no one.”

“India, though it mitigated the West Asia war impacts to a large extent, is expected to rebound strongly to attain its trend growth rate in the current financial year 2026-27. We can expect India to clock a growth rate of 7 per cent in FY2026-27 with dynamic and effective policy measures of the Government of India and the Reserve Bank of India in recent months,” he observed.

The peace deal is expected to bring the global economy back on track and to achieve the earlier estimated GDP growth rate, he added.

US President Donald Trump while welcoming the peace agreement, said in a social media post that the Strait of Hormuz would be open to commercial shipping and the US would lift its naval blockade.

“Let the oil flow!” Trump remarked on Sunday. He went on to claim that, in contrast with the failures of past US presidents, he secured a “great deal that would bring peace and security to the whole region.”

US Vice-President JD Vance said in an interview with Fox News that Iran never possessing a nuclear weapon was “built into this agreement” and that the US will be able to verify compliance.

Questions over crucial issues including the restrictions that have to be imposed on enrichment uranium and the stockpile of highly enriched uranium with Iran are expected to be sorted out in subsequent talks.

In his comments, Vance also mentioned the hardship that US citizens had go through due to higher fuel prices and their cascading adverse impact on the economy.

He assured the American people that fuel prices would start coming down. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council released a statement on Sunday saying that “final negotiations will be postponed until after the implementation of the other party’s commitments under the memorandum of understanding”.

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Wholesale inflation at 9.68 pc in May, new WPI series launched with 2022-23 base year

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New Delhi, June 15: The Ministry of Commerce and Industry on Monday said that it launched a revised Wholesale Price Index (WPI) series with 2022-23 as the new base year and reported wholesale inflation at 9.68 per cent in May.

The new WPI series replaces the existing 2011-12 base year series and is part of a broader overhaul of producer price measurement in the country.

Alongside the revised WPI, the government released new series of Output Producer Price Index (OPPI), Trial Input Producer Price Index (IPPI) and Service Producer Price Indices (PPI) for seven services.

According to the ministry, the transition towards producer price indices is aligned with global best practices and recommendations of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The WPI series will continue to be released for five years to allow users sufficient time to transition to the PPI framework.

In addition, the All India WPI inflation rate for May stood at 9.68 per cent year-on-year, while the index for all commodities rose to 109.9.

Among major groups, inflation in primary articles accelerated to 4.99 per cent in May.

However, fuel and power inflation surged to about 30 per cent, while manufactured products inflation rose to 7.48 per cent during the same period.

The ministry said mineral oils, crude petroleum and natural gas, chemicals and chemical products, and basic metals were among the major contributors to wholesale inflation.

Moreover, the WPI Food Index recorded inflation of 4.49 per cent in May.

As part of the revision, the total number of items covered under the WPI basket has increased from 697 to 957.

The new series also incorporates renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power under the electricity category and includes nuclear electricity in the basket, the government said.

Meanwhile, the government has reorganised the energy basket by moving crude petroleum and natural gas from the primary articles group to fuel and power.

The revised methodology uses gross value of output (GVO) for deriving weights and introduces updated techniques for index compilation and treatment of missing price data.

The ministry said the new output PPI for all commodities stood at 109.6 in May, while the trial Input PPI for the manufacturing sector was recorded at 104.9.

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Global crude oil prices tumble up to 5 pc on US-Iran deal

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New Delhi, June 15: Global crude oil prices declined by nearly 5 per cent on Monday after the United States and Iran reached an agreement and announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns over disruptions to global energy supplies.

The international oil benchmark Brent crude fell as much as 4.90 per cent to $83.05 per barrel in early trade, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude plunged 5.74 per cent to around $80 per barrel.

According to market experts, Asian equities surged at the start of the week as progress towards a US-Iran peace deal boosted global risk appetite, while US futures also traded firmly higher.

“Meanwhile, Brent crude oil declined sharply by more than 4 per cent towards the $83-per-barrel mark, easing inflation concerns and providing additional support to market sentiment,” they said.

US President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that a deal with Iran had been completed. “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete,” according to him.

In addition, he declared the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s crude oil supply passes.

“I hereby fully authorise the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz and, simultaneously, the immediate removal of the United States naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” Trump wrote.

According to reports, the United States and Iran are expected to sign a memorandum of understanding in Switzerland on Friday.

The positive development lifted sentiment across global equity markets. Major Asian indices, including Japan’s Nikkei, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, South Korea’s KOSPI and Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite, traded higher, with some markets gaining more than 5 per cent.

Back home, domestic equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty also opened strongly, with both indices rising more than 1 per cent in early trade.

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