Business
El Nino likely to impact food prices, inflation projected to settle in 5.2–5.5 pc range in FY27
New Delhi, June 14: There is 80 per cent likelihood of an El Nino event during the June–August period and probabilities for this, to continue until at least November, are near or above 90 per cent, according to a new report. However, the reservoir level is more than normal storage (till June 11) in the country and the arrivals statistics of vegetables are also satisfactory.
“Only coming days will tell us whether the supply conditions are sufficient from any incipient shock from food and fuel on inflation or not”, said the Bank of Baroda Research note.
According to economist Dipanwita Mazumdar, CPI inflation is projected to settle in the range of 5.2 per cent–5.5 per cent in FY27, assuming some impact from El Nino and an average crude oil price of $90–100 per barrel.
Headline CPI inflation came in at 3.9 per cent in May 2026, lower than BoB Research’s estimate of 4.1 per cent and up from 3.5 per cent in April.
The increase was largely driven by higher food and fuel prices, with food inflation rising to 4.8 per cent.
Transport inflation accelerated following the recent petrol and diesel price hikes, while restaurant and accommodation services inflation also moved higher.
Core inflation (excluding food and fuel) increased to 3.9 per cent, indicating emerging underlying price pressures.
Looking ahead, BoB Research expects inflationary risks from higher fuel costs and weather-related uncertainties, particularly the likelihood of El Nino conditions impacting food prices.
“For food inflation, the spillover of higher fuel cost and likely increase in freight cost might feed into further high inflation in the near term. Hence the second-round pass-through needs to be closely monitored, especially when weather-related risks are elevated this year,” said the report.
Going forward, “we believe that upside risks to core will intensify as firms might pass through some degree of higher input costs to consumers amidst stable demand conditions. The risks on food inflation is also likely to intensify in the coming days,” the report added.
Business
Piyush Goyal, Maros Sefcovic review progress on India-EU FTA implementation

New Delhi, July 15: Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal on Wednesday said he met Maros Sefcovic, EU Trade and Economic Security Commissioner, and reviewed the progress on the implementation of the India-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA).
The two leaders also “explored avenues to deepen cooperation in trade, investment, critical technologies and resilient supply chains,” Goyal posted on X.
Goyal and Sefcovic in March this year met on the sidelines of the 14th Ministerial Conference (MC14) of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in Cameroon, and reviewed progress on the India-EU FTA.
Both the leaders reviewed progress on the ongoing work towards the signing of the India-EU FTA, as announced by PM Narendra Modi and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in January 2026 in New Delhi.
In Brussels, Goyal also held a productive meeting with Bernd Lange, Chairman of the Committee on International Trade (INTA), European Parliament.
“Discussed the India-EU FTA and the vast opportunities it offers for businesses, industries, and people on both sides, paving the way for a prosperous future. Also extended an invitation to him to visit India to further deepen our engagement,” said Goyal.
India and Belgium earlier discussed ways to expand cooperation across trade, investment, technology, logistics and workforce mobility. Goyal had an excellent meeting with David Clarinval, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Employment, Economy, and Agriculture of Belgium.
“We also exchanged views on the transformative potential of the India-EU Free Trade Agreement and reaffirmed our shared commitment to further strengthening economic ties for the mutual benefit of our businesses and people,” Goyal said in a post on X.
Goyal also met EU Commissioner for Climate, Net-Zero and Clean Growth, Wopke Hoekstra, and exchanged views on strengthening India–EU cooperation in clean growth, climate action and sustainable industrial development.
The discussions focused on expanding collaboration in renewable energy, green hydrogen, clean technologies, innovation, investments and resilient value chains to support our shared net-zero ambitions.
Business
Indian equity markets open higher on positive global cues

Mumbai, July 15: Indian equity benchmark indices opened higher on Wednesday amid positive global cues after gains across Wall Street and Asian markets.
Sensex opened at 77,192.76, up more than 100 points or 0.18 per cent, while Nifty started the session at 24,085.85, gaining 33.80 points or 0.14 per cent.
Sector-wise, financial and banking stocks led the gains in early trade, while information technology shares remained under pressure.
Nifty Financial Services Ex-Bank emerged as the top gainer, rising around 1 per cent, followed by Nifty Chemicals, which advanced 0.71 per cent. Nifty Private Bank gained 0.58 per cent, while Nifty PSU Bank traded 0.53 per cent higher.
On the downside, Nifty IT was the worst-performing sector, declining 1.38 per cent, followed by Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom, which slipped 0.43 per cent.
Meanwhile, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Wipro, HCL Technologies, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, Hindalco Industries and ONGC were among the top losers on the Nifty.
“Nifty is likely to remain range-bound between 23,900 and 24,250 unless a fresh trigger emerges. Strong support is seen around the 24,000 level, while 24,250-24,300 remains the immediate resistance zone. A breakout above this range could trigger short covering and pave the way for further gains,” according to market experts.
They added that the overall technical setup points to a sideways-to-bullish bias for the session.
On the commodities front, international benchmark Brent crude jumped about 2 per cent to trade above $85 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 1.57 per cent to $80.59 a barrel.
In Asia, major indices traded in the green, with the Nikkei, Hang Seng and KOSPI posting gains in early trade.
Overnight, Wall Street ended higher, with the S&P 500 rising 0.38 per cent and the Nasdaq advancing 0.90 per cent.
Business
Sensex drops over 560 points, Nifty slips below 24,100 amid West Asia tensions

Mumbai, July 14: India’s benchmark equity indices ended sharply lower on Tuesday as heightened geopolitical tensions in West Asia triggered broad-based selling, with PSU bank, realty and auto stocks leading the decline.
The Sensex closed 561.46 points, or 0.72 per cent, lower at 77,054.94, while the Nifty slipped 159 points, or 0.66 per cent, to settle at 24,052.05.
Commenting on Nifty technical outlook, experts said that the the index remained range-bound after opening with a gap-down as the NSE weekly options expired.
It found support around the previous day’s low while continuing to sustain above the falling trendline.
“In the short term, the outlook is likely to remain positive as long as the index stays above 23,950. On the higher side, it may advance towards the 24,250–24,300 zone,” an analyst said.
“However, a decisive fall below 23,950 could weaken the current bullish setup and trigger a phase of consolidation,” as per the market expert.
Investor sentiment remained subdued amid growing concerns over developments in West Asia, prompting profit booking across key sectors despite resilience in select defensive stocks.
Among the Nifty constituents, HCLTech, Shriram Finance and HDFC Life Insurance Company emerged as the biggest laggards, weighing on the benchmark index.
The weakness extended to the broader market as well, with the Nifty MidCap index ending 0.44 per cent lower and the Nifty SmallCap index declining 1.01 per cent.
Sectoral indices largely traded in the red, with the Nifty Realty, Nifty PSU Bank and Nifty Auto witnessing the steepest losses. In contrast, the Nifty Pharma index bucked the trend and finished as the top sectoral gainer, reflecting defensive buying amid the broader market weakness.
“Looking ahead, all eyes are now on the US Fed Chair, whose upcoming remarks could set the tone for global rate expectations. Meanwhile, the Q1 earnings season rolls on a positive note but rapid increase in geopolitical risk has dampened the sentiment,” as per the market expert.
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