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El Nino likely to impact food prices, inflation projected to settle in 5.2–5.5 pc range in FY27

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New Delhi, June 14: There is 80 per cent likelihood of an El Nino event during the June–August period and probabilities for this, to continue until at least November, are near or above 90 per cent, according to a new report. However, the reservoir level is more than normal storage (till June 11) in the country and the arrivals statistics of vegetables are also satisfactory.

“Only coming days will tell us whether the supply conditions are sufficient from any incipient shock from food and fuel on inflation or not”, said the Bank of Baroda Research note.

According to economist Dipanwita Mazumdar, CPI inflation is projected to settle in the range of 5.2 per cent–5.5 per cent in FY27, assuming some impact from El Nino and an average crude oil price of $90–100 per barrel.

Headline CPI inflation came in at 3.9 per cent in May 2026, lower than BoB Research’s estimate of 4.1 per cent and up from 3.5 per cent in April.

The increase was largely driven by higher food and fuel prices, with food inflation rising to 4.8 per cent.

Transport inflation accelerated following the recent petrol and diesel price hikes, while restaurant and accommodation services inflation also moved higher.

Core inflation (excluding food and fuel) increased to 3.9 per cent, indicating emerging underlying price pressures.

Looking ahead, BoB Research expects inflationary risks from higher fuel costs and weather-related uncertainties, particularly the likelihood of El Nino conditions impacting food prices.

“For food inflation, the spillover of higher fuel cost and likely increase in freight cost might feed into further high inflation in the near term. Hence the second-round pass-through needs to be closely monitored, especially when weather-related risks are elevated this year,” said the report.

Going forward, “we believe that upside risks to core will intensify as firms might pass through some degree of higher input costs to consumers amidst stable demand conditions. The risks on food inflation is also likely to intensify in the coming days,” the report added.

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Indian equity markets open higher ahead of RBI’s policy outcome

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Mumbai, Aug 5: Domestic equity markets opened higher on Wednesday ahead of the RBI’s policy decision as the headline index surged almost 1 per cent, while global cues were also positive.

Sensex started the trading session at 79,055.38, up over 600 points or 0.8 per cent, while Nifty opened 54 points or 0.22 per cent higher at 24,669.20.

Sector-wise, realty, auto, energy, PSU banking stocks were gainers as Nifty Realty, Nifty Auto, Nifty PSU Bank and Nifty Oil & Gas surged up to 2 per cent. While Nifty Metal, Nifty Cement, Nifty Chemicals also edged up.

In contrast, healthcare and pharmaceuticals shares witnessed selling pressure in early deals, with Nifty Healthcare, Nifty Pharma, Nifty FMCG and Nifty Private Bank declining up to almost 1 per cent.

Meanwhile, Apollo Hospitals, Sun Pharma, Cipla, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, SBI Life, Nestle India, ITC and Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) were top losers of the Nifty index.

Analysts said that sharp dip in Brent crude to below $80 and record closing in the US markets augur well for the Indian market today.

“The focus of the market today will be the monetary policy. The central bank is almost certain to hold the rates in today’s policy since any rate hike now will impact the ongoing growth momentum in the economy,” they said.

Experts further noted the growth resilience in the economy, improving corporate earnings growth and FIIs turning buyers for the sixth day in a row are positives from the market perspective, adding that it appears that the market is poised for a breakout on the upside.

Brent crude — international oil benchmark — declined by 1.61 per cent to trade around $78 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also decreased about 2 per cent to $74.24 per barrel.

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Emami Q1 net profit falls 16 pc to Rs 137 crore

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Mumbai, Aug 4: FMCG major Emami Limited on Tuesday reported a 16.38 per cent year-on-year (YoY) decline in net profit for the quarter ended June 2026 (Q1 FY27).

The Kolkata-based FMCG company posted a net profit of Rs 137.3 crore for the quarter, compared with Rs 164.2 crore in the corresponding period last financial year (Q1 FY26), according to its stock exchange filing.

Despite the decline in profit, the maker of popular brands such as BoroPlus, Navratna and Zandu recorded healthy growth in revenue.

Revenue from operations rose 14.9 per cent year-on-year to Rs 1,039.2 crore in the June quarter, up from Rs 904.1 crore a year ago.

At the operating level, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) increased 5.5 per cent to Rs 226.18 crore, compared with Rs 214.29 crore in the year-ago quarter.

However, operating margins narrowed during the quarter. EBITDA margin stood at 21.7 per cent, down from 23.7 per cent in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year, as per its regulatory filing.

Founded in 1974 by R.S. Agarwal and R.C. Goenka, Emami is one of India’s leading fast-moving consumer goods companies.

The company has a strong presence in personal care and healthcare segments through brands including BoroPlus, Navratna, Zandu, Kesh King, Dermicool and The Man Company.

Headquartered in Kolkata, Emami has a footprint in more than 70 countries and operates through a network of over 4,000 distributors.

The company reported a turnover of Rs 3,780 crore in FY26 and continues to expand its presence across domestic and international markets.

The shares of the FMCG firm were trading at Rs 394, down 2.96 per cent or Rs 12 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE).

In last five days, the shares have delivered a negative return of 4.85 per cent or Rs 20.10.

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India aims 10,000 GI registrations by 2030, FTAs to expand global market access

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New Delhi, Aug 4: India’s Geographical Indication (GI) ecosystem is evolving into a bridge between tradition and opportunity and with a target of 10,000 GI registrations by 2030, the country is well positioned to strengthen its heritage economy and enhance the global presence of its unique regional products, an official factsheet said on Tuesday.

India is home to over 800 registered GI products and 607 GIs have been granted since 2014. In the last 10 years, authorised users for GI tags increased from 365 to 29,000 (as of January 2025).

Through the 2025 amendment, the fee for filing GI applications and related processes has been reduced by 80 per cent. The renewal fee for the tag has also been cut from Rs 3,000 down to just Rs 500.

Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) enhance the value of GIs by expanding market access for distinctive regional products. GI tags certify authenticity and origin, while FTAs reduce trade barriers and improve export opportunities. Reflecting their growing importance, GIs have become a key issue in India’s trade negotiations, according to the statement.

By linking products to their place of origin, GI tags preserve traditional knowledge, prevent misuse, and enhance consumer trust. They help artisans, weavers, farmers, and producer groups secure better market recognition and gain access to premium markets.

According to the factsheet, India’s GI ecosystem has expanded significantly over the years, supported by a robust legal framework and growing public awareness.

Government initiatives are further strengthening this ecosystem through financial assistance, export promotion, tourism integration, and dedicated marketing platforms. Together, these efforts are transforming GI products into drivers of rural development, cultural preservation, and export-led growth.

“A GI tag serves as a seal of authenticity for artisanal crafts, safeguarding them against imitation, misuse, and unauthorised commercialisation. Its significance, however, extends far beyond legal protection,” said the statement.

For instance, the Channapatna toys received GI recognition in 2006.

This recognition applies only to wooden toys made in Karnataka’s Channapatna region. The toys must be produced using the region’s distinctive lacquerware art. Although it may appear to be a simple certification, the tag can deliver far-reaching benefits, the statement added.

A GI tag is more than a label. As per the Ministry of Textiles, it can raise rural artisans’ incomes by 20–30 per cent. By certifying a product’s origin and unique heritage, GI tags instil confidence among buyers and enhance the product’s market appeal.

Growing demand for GI-tagged products enables artisans to gain greater visibility, access premium markets, strengthen their bargaining power, and capture a larger share of the value generated by their work.

According to the statement. the recognition creates sustainable livelihood opportunities. They also play a vital role in preserving and promoting India’s rich cultural heritage and indigenous craftsmanship for future generations.

India is home to GI-tagged products across categories such as handicraft products, agricultural products, manufactured goods, food products and natural products.

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