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‘Gold and Silver for medium to long term as investment’

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With uncertainties in the world – economics and geopolitics – investors having medium to long term outlook can have gold and silver in their portfolio, said Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

A 20 per cent allocation to gold exchange traded funds (ETF) in an investment portfolio during Diwali is ideal, said Quantum AMC.

Geopolitics, Central banks action and inflationary concerns are themes that are not only driving precious metals, but also triggering volatility in other asset classes, said Motilal Oswal in a report.

The US Federal Reserve is rushing to raise interest rates at an aggressive pace with an objective to tame inflation.

On the other hand, geo-political tensions between Russia-Ukraine and other economies continue to increase distress in the economy.

All this is raising questions regarding pace of global growth, institutions like IMF have also lowered their projections on the same.

Pointing out India as one of the largest consumers of gold and silver, Motilal Oswal said there has been a lot of development especially on the domestic front which are supporting prices.

“Government initiatives like, setting up GIFT city, signing an FTA (free trade agreement) between UAE and India, (implies that about 200 tonnes of gold will be imported from UAE at 1 per cent tariff rate quota-TRQ) and changes in import duty,” the company said.

This year macro factors will have an upper hand over the move in metal prices, as tighter monetary policy scenario is not a great phase for non-yielding asset gold, the report said.

The gold price trend is caught between the tussle of bulls and bears.

Extreme negatives do trigger bargain buying for gold and so it is important for medium to long term investors to see a broader picture, Motilal Oswal said.

Except for a few dips, the overall trend for gold has remained positive, and the returns also are quite decent, the company added.

The company has suggested accumulation of gold at Rs 46,800-Rs 47,500 with a medium term target of Rs 53,000 and a long term target of Rs 58,000 with an expected upside of 8-17 per cent.

In the case of silver, Motilal Oswal said the accumulation zone will be Rs 53,500-Rs 54,000 with a medium term target of Rs 64,500 and a long term target of Rs 73,000 with an expected upside of 13-28 per cent.

According to Quantum AMC, the correction in the gold prices from the peak has made the metal affordable this festive season.

“To make the most of the correction, we recommend investing in efficient products such as gold ETFs (exchange traded funds) to maximize the benefits,” Quantum AMC said.

Owning physical gold comes with additional costs such as making charges, retail premiums, storage concerns, and lower buyback value.

On its part, Emkay Global Financial Services in a report said the current weakness in gold may continue till there is more concrete information on the state of the economy in the major economies, especially against the background of an aggressive central bank trade-off unfavourable to growth and promoting stability.

Generally, gold is considered as a hedge against inflation but this time around it does not seem so.

Business

India, Chile make progress on comprehensive economic partnership agreement

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New Delhi, May 9: India and Chile have signed the terms of reference (ToR) for a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA), marking a significant advancement in their bilateral trade relations, the government said on Friday.

The mutually-agreed ToR were signed by Juan Angulo, Ambassador of Chile in India and Vimal Anand, Joint Secretary in Department of Commerce, who is also the Chief Negotiator for India-Chile CEPA from the Indian side.

Both sides reiterated their shared vision for strengthening bilateral relations and look forward to fruitful discussion during the first round scheduled in the national capital from May 26-30.

According to the Commerce Ministry, the CEPA aims to build upon the existing PTA (preferential trade agreement) between the two nations and seeks to encompass a broader range of sectors, including digital services, investment promotion and cooperation, MSME and critical minerals, etc. thereby enhancing economic integration and cooperation.

India and Chile are strategic partners and close allies, sharing warm and cordial relations.

Bilateral ties have steadily strengthened over the years with the exchange of high-level visits. A Framework Agreement on Economic Cooperation was signed between the two countries in January, 2005, followed by PTA in March, 2006.

Since then, economic and commercial relations between India and Chile have remained robust and continue to grow.

According to the ministry, an expanded PTA was subsequently signed in September 2016 and became effective from May 16, 2017.

In April 2019, both countries agreed to pursue a further expansion of the PTA with three rounds of negotiations between the years during 2019-2021. To deepen their economic engagement, both sides expressed their intention to negotiate a CEPA to unlock the full potential of their trade and commercial relationship, boosting employment, facilitating investment promotion, and cooperation and exports, as suggested by the Joint Study Group established under the Framework Agreement.

The JSG report was finalised and signed on April 30, 2024.

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Pakistan stock markets continue to bleed, down 14 pc since Pahalgam attack

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New Delhi, May 8: The stock markets in Pakistan further tanked on Thursday, as trading was halted at the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) amid rising geopolitical tensions.

Karachi Stock Exchange fell more than 6 per cent on Thursday before the trading was halted. The stock exchange has been witnessing a continuous decline since the barbaric Pahalgam terror attack.

The main index, Karachi Stock Exchange 100 Index (KSE-100), has slipped by more than 13 per cent since April 22 when the terror attack happened, killing 26 people, most of them tourists.

On April 22, the KSE-100 index was at 1,18,430, which has now dropped to 1,03,060.

Apart from this, another Pakistani stock index, KSE-30, has also fallen more than 14 per cent since April 22.

Amid the grim state of the stock markets, Pakistan has only $15 billion of foreign exchange reserves left and is on the verge of economic collapse.

The country is seeking a fresh loan worth $1.3 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to run its economy.

Pakistan’s economy, in the initial years after independence, grew at the same pace as India’s, backed by US aid and donations from the oil-rich Islamic nations.

However, while democratic India kept its focus on economic development and lifting its masses out of poverty, Pakistan has been rocked by bloody coups and military dictatorships, with the army Generals still calling the shots and fuelling hostility against its more prosperous neighbour.

Pakistan was on the brink of sovereign default in 2023 and had to be bailed out by a $3 billion IMF loan.

The country is still critically dependent on this financial lifeline and is desperately trying to raise another $1.3 billion climate resilience loan.

Overall, the neighbouring nation now faces an economic freefall – crippled by political chaos and the long-term cost of harbouring terrorism.

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430 flights cancelled, 27 airports to remain shut till May 10

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New Delhi, May 8: After India successfully carried out Operation Sindoor, domestic carriers cancelled around 430 flights on Thursday, which is nearly three per cent of the total scheduled flights in the country, as 27 airports remain shut till May 10.

According to data from flight tracking platform Flightradar24, airspace over Pakistan and the western corridor of India was largely free of civilian aircraft.

“Airspace over Pakistan and the western shoulder of India between Jammu and Kashmir and Gujarat was free of civilian air traffic as airlines shunned the sensitive zone,” according to the portal, which shared live flight path data and cancellation figures.

The affected airports include Srinagar, Jammu, Leh, Chandigarh, Amritsar, Ludhiana, Patiala, Bathinda, Halwara, Pathankot, Bhuntar, Shimla, Gaggal, Dharamsala, Kishangarh, Jaisalmer, Jodhpur, Bikaner, Mundra, Jamnagar, Rajkot, Porbandar, Kandla, Keshod, Bhuj, Gwalior and Hindon.

On Wednesday, more than 300 flights were cancelled, and operations at 21 airports across northern and western India were suspended.

In a post on X, Air India said its contact centres are currently experiencing high call volumes.

“While all our representatives are actively assisting customers, in some cases it may take longer than expected to connect. Please rest assured, we are here to support you. For customers whose flights are impacted by the current disruptions, Air India is offering full refund for cancellations and a one-time waiver on rescheduling fee. This is valid for tickets booked on the impacted flights until 10th May, 2025,” said the carrier.

Air India also said that it is grateful for the selfless service and dedication of our military and defence personnel.

“In the prevailing situation, for those personnel holding defence fares who are booked on Air India and Air India Express flights till 31 May 2025, we are offering full refunds on cancellation and a one-time waiver on rescheduling flights up to 30 June 2025 to support their duty commitments,” said Air India.

IndiGo informed passengers that its services to and from Srinagar, Jammu, Amritsar, Leh, Chandigarh, and Dharamsala were being affected due to changing airspace conditions.

“Continuing our efforts to provide support to our customers and accommodate their travel plan changes, we are extending full waiver of change and cancellation fees for travel to/from Srinagar until 22nd May 2025, for bookings made on or before 22nd April 2025,” IndiGo said in a post on X on Thursday.

SpiceJet noted that flights operating to and from Dharamsala, Leh, Jammu, Srinagar, and Amritsar were suspended until further notice. Akasa Air, while not listing affected routes individually, also issued a travel advisory in response to the situation.

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