Business
Global growth rebound solidifies while risks broaden away from pandemic: Moody’s
Global growth rebound has solidified, but spread of delta variant poses risks, Moody’s Investors Service said in its latest assessment of global economy as the pandemic continues.
According to the credit ratings agency, G-20 economies are expected to grow by 6.2 per cent as a whole in 2021, after a 3.2 per cent contraction last year, followed by 4.5 per cent growth in 2022.
In the grouping, advanced economies will grow by 5.6 per cent collectively in 2021 and by 4.2 per cent in 2022, while emerging markets will collectively expand by 7.2 per cent in 2021, and slow to 5.1 per cent growth in 2022.
Excluding China (A1 stable), we project G-20 emerging market economies will expand by 5.7 per cent and 4.1 per cent in 2021 and 2022, respectively, Moody’s said.
With regard to inflation, the analysis said inflation has surprised to be the upside and appears close to peak. Accordingly, for most G-20 economies, the expectation is that inflation will remain elevated through 2021, and will subside only in 2022. Base effects will reverse and the impact of one-off price increases amid reopening pressures will fade in 2022.
Eventually, Moody’s expect that inflation will settle within central bank targets as demand growth falls back and supply bottlenecks ease.
Monetary and financial conditions are set to tighten, but not excessively so. With a growth recovery from the Covid shock in sight and upward revisions to central banks’ inflation forecasts, Moody’s said it expects a few advanced economy central banks to progressively dial back emergency measures, including liquidity operations and asset purchases. In addition, as the recovery consolidates, central banks may incrementally alter policy guidance, signaling a gradual shift in the policy stance from expansionary to neutral.
Risks will evolve over time as the pandemic becomes a less important economic driver, Moody’s said. The most immediate risk to forecasts in the near term relates to the evolution of the pandemic. Further out, unprecedentedly high levels of public and private sector debt could become a concern from a debt sustainability standpoint if growth and revenue prospects dim. The boost in digitization brought about by the pandemic could increase productivity but also create structural unemployment and social tensions, the Malaysia pointed out.
The pandemic has also accelerated political realignments, which could spur geopolitical tensions and cyber risks, it added.
Vaccination rates, the extent of serious infections and mobility restrictions remain the key determinants of where countries find themselves in their economic recovery cycle, Moody’s said.
Business
Uttar Pradesh’s exports to more than double as new FTAs kick in: Piyush Goyal

Greater Noida, Sep 27: Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal highlighted that as global markets open up to India through Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), Uttar Pradesh’s annual exports are expected to more than double from Rs 2 lakh crore to Rs 5 lakh crore by 2030.
Addressing the UP International Trade Show in Greater Noida, Goyal said that expanding exports, investments and global market access would contribute to the state’s goal of becoming a $1 trillion economy.
The minister said the expanding global market access through FTAs, investments, tourism and international recognition of Uttar Pradesh’s products and brands would create new opportunities for the state’s entrepreneurs. He called for active participation and cooperation from the state’s trade and industrial community in taking forward this development journey.
He said new investments are expected to flow into India from across the globe and noted that Uttar Pradesh has emerged as a preferred investment destination, supported by favourable industrial policies and proactive industrial schemes. He said major corporations and global investors are arriving across sectors, creating new employment opportunities.
The minister highlighted the role of modern technology, international enterprises, and the evolving craftsmanship and technical skills of Uttar Pradesh’s youth in driving the state’s development. He said international events of this scale provide opportunities for direct access to global markets, enabling Uttar Pradesh’s diverse products, cuisines and services to reach international markets.
Goyal underscored the international participation at the UP International Trade Show, including six partner countries, hundreds of delegates and exhibitors, and buyer-seller meetings. He noted the participation of international stakeholders and the opportunities created for businesses through the event.
He highlighted the development of expressways, modern airports and industrial parks in Uttar Pradesh and noted the state’s growing presence across sectors including defence, semiconductors, electronics and other modern high-technology domains. He also referred to the expansion of a large robotics manufacturing facility in Greater Noida as an example of modern industrial growth and technological development.
The next frontier for Uttar Pradesh’s development lies in expanding exports in global markets, attracting international investments, strengthening tourism and building global recognition for brands from the state, he said, adding that the state is strengthening its foundation for greater global trade and progressing towards its development objectives.
The minister also highlighted the importance of coordination between the Central and state governments, along with the participation of citizens, youth and stakeholders from the trade and industrial sector, in supporting Uttar Pradesh’s continued economic and export growth.
Business
Consumers brace for 3-day bank strike; certain banks open on Sunday

New Delhi, Sep 27: State Bank of India (SBI), Bank of Baroda (BoB), Punjab National Bank (PNB) and several other public sector banks are open on Sunday (September 27), giving customers an opportunity to complete their banking work before a proposed three-day nationwide bank strike from September 28 to September 30.
The special Sunday opening applies to public sector banks (PSBs) and regional rural banks (RRBs), following a direction aimed at ensuring the availability of regular banking services ahead of the proposed strike. Customers who need to visit a branch for important banking work can therefore use the additional working day, subject to the operational arrangements and staffing at individual branches.
The decision to open PSBs and RRBs on Sunday was taken following a meeting held on September 21 between officials from the Finance Ministry, public sector banks, regional rural banks, the Indian Banks’ Association (IBA) and NABARD.
The move assumes significance as September 26 and 27 fall on Saturday and Sunday, respectively. With the proposed bank strike scheduled immediately after the weekend, customers could otherwise have faced several consecutive days with limited access to physical branch services. The Sunday opening has consequently been planned to provide an additional opportunity to complete important banking transactions before the strike.
Among the public sector banks operating today are State Bank of India, Canara Bank, Bank of Baroda, Punjab National Bank, Bank of India, Indian Bank, Union Bank of India, Bank of Maharashtra, UCO Bank, Central Bank of India, Indian Overseas Bank and Punjab & Sind Bank.
The arrangement also covers 28 regional rural banks across the country. These include Andhra Pradesh Grameena Bank, Arunachal Pradesh Rural Bank, Assam Gramin Bank, Bihar Gramin Bank, Chhattisgarh Gramin Bank, Gujarat Gramin Bank, Haryana Gramin Bank, Himachal Pradesh Gramin Bank, Jammu and Kashmir Grameen Bank, Jharkhand Gramin Bank, Karnataka Grameena Bank, Kerala Grameena Bank, Madhya Pradesh Gramin Bank, Maharashtra Gramin Bank, Manipur Rural Bank, Meghalaya Rural Bank, Mizoram Rural Bank, Nagaland Rural Bank, Odisha Grameen Bank, Puducherry Grama Bank, Punjab Gramin Bank, Rajasthan Gramin Bank, Tamil Nadu Grama Bank, Telangana Grameena Bank, Tripura Gramin Bank, Uttar Pradesh Gramin Bank, Uttarakhand Gramin Bank and West Bengal Gramin Bank.
However, the Sunday opening arrangement does not automatically extend to private sector banks.
The special Sunday banking arrangement comes ahead of the proposed three-day nationwide strike called by the United Forum of Bank Unions (UFBU) and other bank unions from September 28 to September 30.
Business
Crude oil, global yields, FII flows among key factors to drive stock market next week

Mumbai, Sep 27: After ending lower for the seventh consecutive week, the Indian stock market is likely to take cues from crude oil prices, global bond yields, foreign fund flows, geopolitical developments in the Middle East, and key US economic data releases in the coming week.
Market sentiment remained subdued through most of the week, with indices trading in a narrow range during the initial sessions. However, a sharp sell-off on Thursday weighed heavily on investor confidence before value buying in select blue-chip stocks helped the market recover on Friday.
The Sensex rose 315.20 points, or 0.43 per cent, to close at 73,895.74 on Friday, while the Nifty gained 77.40 points, or 0.34 per cent, to settle at 23,140.50. Buying interest was seen in banking, oil and gas, and automobile stocks after the recent correction pushed several large-cap counters to attractive valuations.
Going into the new week, crude oil prices are expected to remain one of the most important triggers for the equity market. With Brent crude continuing to hover above the $100-per-barrel level, concerns over inflationary pressures, higher import costs and pressure on corporate margins remain elevated.
However, the recent easing in oil prices has provided some relief to investors. Market participants will closely monitor crude price movements as any fresh escalation in geopolitical tensions could once again drive prices higher.
Global bond yields will also be closely tracked following the US Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision. Rising bond yields and a stronger US dollar could dampen risk appetite and trigger capital outflows from emerging markets, including India. Conversely, any moderation in yields may provide support to equities and improve investor sentiment.
Geopolitical developments surrounding the ongoing US-Iran conflict are another key factor on investors’ radar. Iran has reportedly proposed a seven-day framework aimed at restoring normal shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for easing sanctions and broader ceasefire measures.
Any progress toward de-escalation could help stabilise energy markets, while renewed tensions may increase volatility across global financial markets.
Foreign institutional investor (FII) activity will remain crucial after sustained selling pressure in recent weeks. Analysts believe strong participation from domestic institutional investors (DIIs) and oversold market conditions could aid intermittent rebounds.
However, a lasting recovery will depend on stability in crude oil prices, easing global yields, improvement in geopolitical conditions and moderation in foreign fund outflows.
Investors will also closely watch a series of key US economic data releases scheduled next week. The data is expected to provide further clues on the health of the world’s largest economy, inflation trends and the likely trajectory of interest rates. The outcome could influence global risk sentiment and impact flows into equity markets worldwide.
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