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Global growth rebound solidifies while risks broaden away from pandemic: Moody’s

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Moody

Global growth rebound has solidified, but spread of delta variant poses risks, Moody’s Investors Service said in its latest assessment of global economy as the pandemic continues.

According to the credit ratings agency, G-20 economies are expected to grow by 6.2 per cent as a whole in 2021, after a 3.2 per cent contraction last year, followed by 4.5 per cent growth in 2022.

In the grouping, advanced economies will grow by 5.6 per cent collectively in 2021 and by 4.2 per cent in 2022, while emerging markets will collectively expand by 7.2 per cent in 2021, and slow to 5.1 per cent growth in 2022.

Excluding China (A1 stable), we project G-20 emerging market economies will expand by 5.7 per cent and 4.1 per cent in 2021 and 2022, respectively, Moody’s said.

With regard to inflation, the analysis said inflation has surprised to be the upside and appears close to peak. Accordingly, for most G-20 economies, the expectation is that inflation will remain elevated through 2021, and will subside only in 2022. Base effects will reverse and the impact of one-off price increases amid reopening pressures will fade in 2022.

Eventually, Moody’s expect that inflation will settle within central bank targets as demand growth falls back and supply bottlenecks ease.

Monetary and financial conditions are set to tighten, but not excessively so. With a growth recovery from the Covid shock in sight and upward revisions to central banks’ inflation forecasts, Moody’s said it expects a few advanced economy central banks to progressively dial back emergency measures, including liquidity operations and asset purchases. In addition, as the recovery consolidates, central banks may incrementally alter policy guidance, signaling a gradual shift in the policy stance from expansionary to neutral.

Risks will evolve over time as the pandemic becomes a less important economic driver, Moody’s said. The most immediate risk to forecasts in the near term relates to the evolution of the pandemic. Further out, unprecedentedly high levels of public and private sector debt could become a concern from a debt sustainability standpoint if growth and revenue prospects dim. The boost in digitization brought about by the pandemic could increase productivity but also create structural unemployment and social tensions, the Malaysia pointed out.

The pandemic has also accelerated political realignments, which could spur geopolitical tensions and cyber risks, it added.

Vaccination rates, the extent of serious infections and mobility restrictions remain the key determinants of where countries find themselves in their economic recovery cycle, Moody’s said.

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Govt earmarks Rs 2,010 crore to boost judicial infra, eCourt modernisation

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New Delhi, July 26: The government has allocated Rs 2,010 crore to boost judicial infrastructure and digitisation of courts, including necessary training and capacity building programmes.

According to Law Minister Arjun Ram Meghwal, under the Centrally Sponsored Scheme (CSS) for Development of Infrastructure Facilities for the District and Subordinate Courts, a sum of Rs 810 crore has been allocated in the Union Budget 2026 for judicial infrastructure.

In addition, sum of Rs 1,200 crore has been allocated in the Budget for the eCourts Project Phase-III being implemented for digitisation of courts including necessary training and capacity building programmes, he said in a written reply to a question in the Lok Sabha.

Adequate budgetary provisions are made under these Schemes based on approved outlays and availability of funds.

“However, the expeditious disposal of cases depends on multiple factors including complexity of case, quality of investigation, availability of relevant evidence and presentation thereof by the Advocates, timely delivery of the court processes, active participation of the parties, judicial procedures, etc,” said the minister.

The government, in coordination with states and the judiciary, has taken several measures to ensure accessible, speedy and effective justice across the country.

Meanwhile, a Centrally Sponsored Scheme to set up Fast Track Special Courts (FTSCs), including exclusive POCSO (ePOCSO) courts was launched in October 2019, for the expeditious trial and disposal of pending cases related to rape and offences under the Protection of Children from Sexual Offences (POCSO) Act, 2012.

The scheme was extended twice, with the last extension valid up to March 31, 2026 for establishment of 790 FTSCs. The scheme has been temporarily extended upto September 30, 2026.

As per the information made available by the High Courts, as of April 30, 775 FTSCs, including 398 exclusive POCSO (e-POCSO) Courts were functional in 29 States/UTs, informed the minister.

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HDFC Bank shares fall over 1 pc as US law firms launch securities probe

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New Delhi, July 24: Shares of India’s largest private sector lender, HDFC Bank, fell more than 1 per cent in early trade on Friday after three US law firms announced separate investigations into whether the bank may have violated federal securities laws.

The investigations were announced by the Law Offices of Howard G. Smith, the Law Offices of Frank R. Cruz and Glancy Prongay Wolke & Rotter through separate press releases.

According to the law firms, the investigations are focused on whether HDFC Bank and certain of its executives made materially misleading statements or failed to disclose information relevant to investors, potentially violating US federal securities laws.

The probes stem from a May 27 report by The Indian Express — which alleged that HDFC Bank made payments of about Rs 45 crore (Rs 450 million or around $4.7 million) to the Maharashtra State Road Development Corporation (MSRDC) to attract large institutional deposits.

The report also alleged that the payments were booked as marketing expenses and that the bank’s Chief Executive Officer was aware of them.

According to the law firms, HDFC Bank’s American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) fell $1.02, or 4.1 per cent, to close at $23.78 on May 27 following the publication of the report.

The firms have invited investors who suffered losses in HDFC Bank ADRs to contact them and share relevant information as they assess whether there are sufficient grounds to pursue securities-related claims.

However, no securities class action lawsuit has been filed against HDFC Bank at this stage. The investigations are preliminary and are intended to determine whether legal action is warranted.

However, the lender has not issued any statement on the matter to the stock exchanges — the NSE and the BSE — till 10:30 am.

On Friday, HDFC Bank shares fell as much as 1.44 per cent during early trade on the BSE. The stock has declined more than 25 per cent over the past one year, nearly 20 per cent in the last six months, and around 25 per cent so far this calendar year.

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IndusInd Bank shares tumble over 6 pc after Q1 results

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New Delhi, July 23: Shares of private sector banking stock IndusInd Bank fell more than 6 per cent in early trade on Thursday after the bank posted its June quarter earnings.

The banking stock plunged as much as 6.29 per cent to 1002.50, hitting an intraday low of Rs 1,002.50 on the BSE at around 11:50 am.

At the last count, the stock was trading at Rs 1,006.75, a decrease of 5.90 per cent.

The selling pressure in the banking stock came after the private lender reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 1,037.05 crore for the first quarter of FY27 on Wednesday, compared with Rs 604.07 crore in the corresponding period last year.

The earnings were supported by a 21 per cent decline in provisions and contingencies, which stood at Rs 1,384 crore.

The lender’s net interest income (NII) rose 1 per cent year-on-year to Rs 4,685 crore, while its gross non-performing asset (GNPA) ratio improved to 3.25 per cent. Gross slippages also declined to Rs 1,660 crore from Rs 2,567 crore a year ago.

Earlier in June, the bank witnessed selling pressure after reports claimed a complaint seeking an investigation into alleged insider trading, governance lapses, and audit shortcomings at the bank.

The selling pressure in shares followed reports suggesting that a whistleblower had approached multiple authorities — including the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO), the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the Serious Fraud Investigation Office (SFIO), the National Financial Reporting Authority (NFRA) and other agencies.

According to them, the complaint alleged insider trading, manipulation of financial records, evergreening of microfinance loans, suppression of audit findings and attempts by senior management and board members to conceal irregularities.

Additionally, the stock has touched a 52-week high of Rs 1,077.80 and a 52-week low of Rs 710.85 on Thursday on the BSE.

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