Business
Global growth rebound solidifies while risks broaden away from pandemic: Moody’s
Global growth rebound has solidified, but spread of delta variant poses risks, Moody’s Investors Service said in its latest assessment of global economy as the pandemic continues.
According to the credit ratings agency, G-20 economies are expected to grow by 6.2 per cent as a whole in 2021, after a 3.2 per cent contraction last year, followed by 4.5 per cent growth in 2022.
In the grouping, advanced economies will grow by 5.6 per cent collectively in 2021 and by 4.2 per cent in 2022, while emerging markets will collectively expand by 7.2 per cent in 2021, and slow to 5.1 per cent growth in 2022.
Excluding China (A1 stable), we project G-20 emerging market economies will expand by 5.7 per cent and 4.1 per cent in 2021 and 2022, respectively, Moody’s said.
With regard to inflation, the analysis said inflation has surprised to be the upside and appears close to peak. Accordingly, for most G-20 economies, the expectation is that inflation will remain elevated through 2021, and will subside only in 2022. Base effects will reverse and the impact of one-off price increases amid reopening pressures will fade in 2022.
Eventually, Moody’s expect that inflation will settle within central bank targets as demand growth falls back and supply bottlenecks ease.
Monetary and financial conditions are set to tighten, but not excessively so. With a growth recovery from the Covid shock in sight and upward revisions to central banks’ inflation forecasts, Moody’s said it expects a few advanced economy central banks to progressively dial back emergency measures, including liquidity operations and asset purchases. In addition, as the recovery consolidates, central banks may incrementally alter policy guidance, signaling a gradual shift in the policy stance from expansionary to neutral.
Risks will evolve over time as the pandemic becomes a less important economic driver, Moody’s said. The most immediate risk to forecasts in the near term relates to the evolution of the pandemic. Further out, unprecedentedly high levels of public and private sector debt could become a concern from a debt sustainability standpoint if growth and revenue prospects dim. The boost in digitization brought about by the pandemic could increase productivity but also create structural unemployment and social tensions, the Malaysia pointed out.
The pandemic has also accelerated political realignments, which could spur geopolitical tensions and cyber risks, it added.
Vaccination rates, the extent of serious infections and mobility restrictions remain the key determinants of where countries find themselves in their economic recovery cycle, Moody’s said.
Business
Gold holds steady amid easing US-Iran tensions; silver gains on MCX

Mumbai, Gold prices remained largely steady on Wednesday as improving prospects of easing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran kept investor sentiment in check.
During early trade, MCX gold May futures were marginally higher by 0.02 per cent at Rs 1,53,305 per 10 grams.
Commenting on gold technical outlook, experts said that a sustained move above Rs 1,55,000 could revive momentum toward Rs 1,57,000-Rs 1,58,000.
“On the downside, a break below Rs 1,54,000 may lead to a corrective move toward Rs 1,52,000 and further to Rs 1,50,000,” an analyst stated.
Silver prices, however, saw stronger buying interest, with MCX silver May futures rising 0.83 per cent to Rs 2,54,842 per kg.
“Resistance is placed at Rs 2,60,000–Rs 2,63,000, with further upside toward Rs 2,68,000–Rs 2,70,000,” a market expert said.
“A sustained move above these levels could strengthen momentum and support further gains. On the downside, a break below Rs 2,48,000 may lead to a corrective move toward the Rs 2,44,000–Rs 2,40,000 range,” as per an analyst.
In the previous session, gold had ended flat at Rs 1,53,216 per 10 grams, while silver futures slipped 0.1 per cent to Rs 2,25,499 per kg.
Globally, the yellow metal held on to its recent gains amid optimism that Washington and Tehran could move towards a negotiated settlement to the conflict that began on February 28.
The easing of tensions has reduced fears of a sharp energy-supply shock, which had earlier raised concerns about inflationary pressures.
Spot gold hovered near $4,850 an ounce after rising as much as 0.6 per cent during the session. The metal had surged over 2 per cent in the previous trading session on expectations that the US and Iran may soon hold a second round of ceasefire talks.
US President Donald Trump has indicated that negotiations could resume “over the next two days,” further boosting hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough.
Despite the recent stability, gold has faced pressure in recent weeks, falling nearly 8 per cent since the conflict began.
Early in the crisis, a liquidity squeeze prompted investors to offload bullion holdings to cover losses in other asset classes.
Business
Indian stock market in positive territory, overall sentiment remains balanced

Mumbai, The Indian stock markets witnessed a strong rebound last week after six consecutive weeks of decline, supported by favourable global cues, according to analysts.
Sentiment remained buoyant amid optimism surrounding a temporary US–Iran ceasefire, although lingering geopolitical uncertainties capped the pace of gains as the week progressed.
“The rally was further aided by a stable domestic macro backdrop, with broader markets outperforming the benchmarks. Despite elevated volatility marked by sharp mid-week gains and subsequent profit booking, indices trended higher,” said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.
The Nifty and Sensex gained around 6 per cent to close near the week’s highs at 24,050.60 and 77,550.25, respectively.
According to analysts, global developments remained a key influence, with the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran improving risk appetite, though uncertainty around its sustainability persisted.
Meanwhile, a sharp decline in crude oil prices below the $100 mark eased domestic concerns and triggered a strong rebound across markets.
On the domestic front, the RBI maintained the repo rate at 5.25 per cent and retained a neutral stance, highlighting the need to balance inflation risks with growth support.
The central bank also revised FY26 GDP growth upward to 7.6 per cent while projecting FY27 growth at 6.9 per cent.
Inflation projections were raised to 4.6 per cent for FY27, reflecting risks from elevated energy prices and potential weather-related disruptions.
Market watchers said that overall sentiment remains balanced but cautious, shaped by global cues, crude oil price movements and ongoing foreign investor activity.
Downside appears to be relatively contained, but upside momentum remains constrained, pointing to a recovery that is still tentative and low in conviction, they added.
Economic indicators showed signs of moderation, with the Services PMI easing to 57.5 and the Composite PMI to 57.0 in March.
However, global agencies remained constructive, with the World Bank raising India’s growth outlook, supported by strong domestic demand and structural factors, said analysts.
Business
Crude oil prices tank up to 20 pc over Iran ceasefire announcement

New Delhi, April 8: Global crude oil prices on Wednesday plunged sharply up to 20 per cent, after US President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran that includes a pledge to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway at the heart of the world’s most acute energy crisis in decades.
The international benchmark Brent crude futures shed nearly 16 per cent or $17.39 to $91.88, hitting an intraday low, while US WTI crude declined almost 20 per cent or $21.90 to $91.05.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil flows, has been at the centre of the conflict. Iran had restricted passage for several weeks, contributing to rising prices and supply concerns. Markets had been on edge ahead of Trump’s deadline for Iran to reach a deal, with traders fearing a major escalation could disrupt shipments across the Gulf and send prices sharply higher.
Oil prices had surged in recent weeks amid fears that the strait could be closed or severely restricted. The waterway handles shipments critical to global supply chains, including crude oil and liquefied natural gas.
The US-Israel-Iran conflict has been paused for two weeks after approximately 40 days of hostilities that began in February.
President Trump’s shift in stance came just ahead of his stated deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or risk extensive strikes on its civilian infrastructure.
Meanwhile, Iran indicated it would halt its military operations provided attacks against it ceased simultaneously. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in a formal statement, confirmed that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be ensured for two weeks in coordination with Iranian armed forces.
The conflict had triggered an unprecedented surge in oil prices in March, with gains exceeding 60 per cent during the period.
Additionally, Indian equity benchmarks also rallied sharply on the development, trading more than 3 per cent higher in early trade. The Sensex jumped nearly 4 per cent, while the Nifty surged 3.5 per cent to their respective intraday highs.
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