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FY22 GDP growth seen at 8.2-8.5%, for Q4 at 2.7%: SBI Ecowrap report

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The State Bank of India’s (SBI) research report Ecowrap, in its latest edition, projected India’s GDP growth for FY22 to be at 8.2-8.5 per cent.

For Q4FY22, the report projected growth at 2.7 per cent.

“We however believe the GDP projection for Q4FY22 is clouded by significant uncertainties. For example, even a 1 per cent downward revision in Q1 GDP estimates of FY22 from 20.3 per cent, all other things remaining unchanged could push Q4 GDP growth to 3.8 per cent,” the report said.

Early trend of Q4FY22 results for corporates, in the listed space, reported better growth across parameters as compared to Q4FY21 albeit contraction in operating margin due to higher input costs. Sectors such as steel, FMCG, chemicals, IT-software, auto ancillary, and paper reported better growth numbers.

However, automobile, cement, capital goods-electrical equipment, and edible oil reported growth in the top line in Q4FY22, registered negative growth in PAT.

“Meanwhile globally, while the average real GDP Y-o-Y growth in Q1 2022 for 25 economies at 5.5 per cent is a tad higher than the preceding quarter, GDP growth is marking an abrupt reversal in major economies (the US, France, Italy, Sweden). The US economy unexpectedly contracted in the Q1 2022 (on sequential basis) amid a resurgence in Covid-19 cases and drop in pandemic relief money from the government. This is the first decline in GDP since the short and sharp pandemic recession nearly two years ago,” said the report.

Investors are already wary of rising inflationary pressures, however, certain economic data including new jobless claims rising to a four-month high and negative leading index have further sparked concerns that pricing pressures are starting to now take a toll on the economic growth.

On crude oil prices, the report said it was sceptical that prices may not sustain at high levels for a long time.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to hike rates in the June policy meeting and the cumulative rate hike in June and August is likely to be 75 basis points, it said.

The report added that the best thing that has emerged during the pandemic is the coordinated policy response by both the government and the RBI in staving off the health crisis and now the inflation.

“The RBI has largely been successful in communicating to the market about its intentions and seems to have managed the art of managing expectations much better.”

Business

FM Sitharaman to showcase India’s economic dynamism during US, Peru visit

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New Delhi, April 19: Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is set to embark on an official visit to the US and Peru, beginning April 20, where she is slated to participate in multilateral dialogues to showcase India’s economic dynamism, as the country prepares a bilateral trade agreement (BTA) with the US, it was announced on Saturday.

During her visit to the US, the Finance Minister will visit San Francisco and Washington, DC, from April 20-25, according to a Ministry of Finance statement.

In San Francisco, FM Sitharaman would deliver a keynote address at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, titled ‘Laying the foundations of Viksit Bharat 2047,’ followed by a fireside chat session.

The Finance Minister will also interact with top CEOs from prominent fund management firms during a roundtable meeting with investors, besides holding bilateral meetings with CEOs from top information technology (IT) firms based in San Francisco.

She will also participate in an event featuring the Indian diaspora in San Francisco and interact with the Indian community settled there, said the ministry.

In Washington, DC, FM Sitharaman will participate in the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, the 2nd G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors (FMCBG) Meetings, the Development Committee Plenary, IMFC Plenary, and Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable (GSDR) meeting.

On the sidelines of the Spring Meetings, she will hold bilateral meetings with her counterparts from several countries, including Argentina, Bahrain, Germany, France, Luxembourg, Saudi Arabia, United Kingdom, and the US; besides meeting EU Commissioner for Financial Services; President, Asian Development Bank (ADB); President, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB); United Nations Secretary-General’s Special Advocate for Financial Health (UNSGSA); and First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

During her maiden visit to Peru from April 26-30, the Finance Minister will lead an Indian delegation of officials from the Ministry of Finance and business leaders, highlighting the strengthening bilateral economic and trade relations between the two nations.

Beginning her visit in Lima, she is expected to call on the President of Peru, Dina Boluarte, and Prime Minister Gustavo Adrianzen, besides holding bilateral meetings with the Peruvian Ministers of Finance and Economy, Defence, Energy and Mines, and also holding interaction with local public representatives.

The Finance Minister will chair the India-Peru Business Forum meeting with prominent business representatives in attendance from both India and Peru.

FM Sitharaman will also hold an interaction with the Indian investors and businesses currently operating in Peru, as well as the Indian business delegation visiting Peru. The Finance Minister will also participate in a community event in Lima, where she will interact with the Indian diaspora living in Peru, according to the ministry statement.

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Business

Foreign investors infuse Rs 8,500 crore into Indian equities this week

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Mumbai, April 19: Foreign investors have once again turned their attention to Indian equities, pumping in around Rs 8,500 crore during the week, as per the latest National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) data.

The inflows came in during just three trading sessions — Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday — as stock markets remained closed on Monday and Friday due to public holidays.

This marks a positive turnaround after months of consistent selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) in the equity segment. Their return helped the markets end the week on a strong note.

Both the Indian equity indices wrapped up the week on a strong recovery by surging over 4.5 per cent — driven by positive signals from both domestic and global factors.

The rally was primarily fuelled by optimism surrounding the deferral of tariffs and recent exemptions on select products, raising hopes for potential negotiations that could mitigate the impact on global trade.

A key reason behind this fresh wave of investment is the weakening of the US dollar. As the dollar slips and currencies like the Indian rupee gain strength, global investors find it more attractive to move funds from the US to emerging markets like India.

While these inflows bring temporary relief to the markets, analysts say the coming weeks will be crucial.

“Investors will be watching closely to see whether this positive trend continues or if global factors once again influence foreign investment in Indian stocks,” experts noted.

As per market experts, in the coming week, market participants will closely watch the quarterly earnings of major companies like Infosys, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank.

Other key players, including HCL Technologies, Axis Bank, Hindustan Unilever and Maruti Suzuki India are also set to release their financial results.

Meanwhile, the expiry of the April derivatives series could add to market volatility. On the global front, any developments related to tariffs and their potential impact on international markets will also be closely tracked, the experts mentioned.

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Calcutta HC allows NGO to distribute relief material in communal violence-hit Murshidabad

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Kolkata, April 17: A single-judge bench of the Calcutta High Court, on Thursday, permitted a non-government organisation (NGO) to visit the communal violence-hit Murshidabad and distribute relief material among the affected people.

While granting permission to the NGO christened ‘Khola Hawa (Open Air)’, which was earlier denied permission by the district administration, the single-judge bench of Justice Amrita Sinha observed that there was no rule that organisations other than government bodies would not have permission to distribute relief materials at any place.

She also observed that the existing law and order problem could not be an excuse for denying permission, since the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) were already posted in Murshidabad.

The NGO approached the bench of Justice Sinha after the Murshidabad district magistrate denied permission for its members to visit the troubled spots in the district to distribute relief there. Parts of Murshidabad district in West Bengal have been on the boil last week after protests over the Waqf (Amendment) Act turned violent.

In the petition, the NGO alleged that while the district administration was allowing different political parties to reach the troubled spots with relief materials, the permission to the organisation was deliberately denied.

The matter came up for hearing on Thursday afternoon. The counsel for the NGO argued that there was no reason for the district magistrate to deny the permission since the state Director General of Police had already claimed that the situation at Murshidabad was currently more or less normal. “The NGO members want to go there to distribute relief items like tarpaulin, food, and medicines to those affected,” the counsel of Khola Hawa argued.

Although the state government opposed the arguments, Justice Sinha finally accepted the argument of the counsel of Khola Hawa and permitted the NGO to visit the troubled spots and distribute relief items there.

However, she maintained that only three members of a relief team should visit any troubled spot at a time for the time being. At the same time, these three team members would have to inform the district magistrate at least 24 hours in advance about their visit. The visiting team members, as per the court order, should also not make any provocative statements during the process of relief distribution that might trigger tension in the area again.

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