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FY22 GDP growth seen at 8.2-8.5%, for Q4 at 2.7%: SBI Ecowrap report

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The State Bank of India’s (SBI) research report Ecowrap, in its latest edition, projected India’s GDP growth for FY22 to be at 8.2-8.5 per cent.

For Q4FY22, the report projected growth at 2.7 per cent.

“We however believe the GDP projection for Q4FY22 is clouded by significant uncertainties. For example, even a 1 per cent downward revision in Q1 GDP estimates of FY22 from 20.3 per cent, all other things remaining unchanged could push Q4 GDP growth to 3.8 per cent,” the report said.

Early trend of Q4FY22 results for corporates, in the listed space, reported better growth across parameters as compared to Q4FY21 albeit contraction in operating margin due to higher input costs. Sectors such as steel, FMCG, chemicals, IT-software, auto ancillary, and paper reported better growth numbers.

However, automobile, cement, capital goods-electrical equipment, and edible oil reported growth in the top line in Q4FY22, registered negative growth in PAT.

“Meanwhile globally, while the average real GDP Y-o-Y growth in Q1 2022 for 25 economies at 5.5 per cent is a tad higher than the preceding quarter, GDP growth is marking an abrupt reversal in major economies (the US, France, Italy, Sweden). The US economy unexpectedly contracted in the Q1 2022 (on sequential basis) amid a resurgence in Covid-19 cases and drop in pandemic relief money from the government. This is the first decline in GDP since the short and sharp pandemic recession nearly two years ago,” said the report.

Investors are already wary of rising inflationary pressures, however, certain economic data including new jobless claims rising to a four-month high and negative leading index have further sparked concerns that pricing pressures are starting to now take a toll on the economic growth.

On crude oil prices, the report said it was sceptical that prices may not sustain at high levels for a long time.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to hike rates in the June policy meeting and the cumulative rate hike in June and August is likely to be 75 basis points, it said.

The report added that the best thing that has emerged during the pandemic is the coordinated policy response by both the government and the RBI in staving off the health crisis and now the inflation.

“The RBI has largely been successful in communicating to the market about its intentions and seems to have managed the art of managing expectations much better.”

Business

Domestic occupiers capture 46 pc of office leasing in India since 2022: Report

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Mumbai, June 4: Indian firms have significantly increased their footprint in the commercial real estate market, with domestic occupiers accounting for 46 per cent of gross leasing activity since 2022 — up from 35 per cent during 2017-2019, according to a new report released on Wednesday.

Leasing volumes by domestic firms reached unprecedented levels in 2024 with 31.9 million square feet, with them continuing the strong momentum into Q1 2025 with 8.8 million square ft already leased, said the report by JLL.

The BFSI sector has recorded the most substantial growth in average transaction size. BFSI firms have more than doubled their space requirements, with average deal sizes jumping from 10,500-11,500 sq. ft in 2017-2019 to 24,000-25,000 sq. ft in the 2022-Q1 2025 period, representing a staggering 125-130 per cent increase.

Delhi-NCR leads in domestic leasing activity, while Mumbai has shown the most significant growth with its share increasing by approximately 62 per cent.

“This evolution reflects India’s strengthening economy and changing corporate strategies focused on efficiency and consolidation. While global occupiers remain the mainstay, the rising importance of Indian occupiers in the office market will continue to support the rising leasing activity levels in the country,” said Dr Samantak Das, Chief Economist and Head of Research and REIS, India, JLL.

Both these, together, have the potential to push India’s leasing volumes to over 100 million sq. ft over the next 3-4 calendar years, he added.

After BFSI, manufacturing follows closely behind with average deals growing from 7,000-8,000 sq. ft to 15,000-16,000 sq. ft, a 100-120 per cent increase that reflects India’s strengthened focus on domestic production capabilities.

While flex operators continue to secure the largest spaces per transaction at 57,000-60,000 sq ft (up 35-45 per cent from previous levels), technology firms have also substantially increased their footprint.

The IT and ITeS sector now averages 31,000-32,000 sq. ft per deal, up 85-95 per cent from the 2017-2019 period, the report noted.

“The evolution of India’s domestic corporate real estate landscape reveals a fascinating divergence in occupier preferences across major metros. Delhi NCR and Mumbai have emerged as clear frontrunners, but with distinctly different demand drivers,” said Rahul Arora, Head-Office Leasing and Retail Services, Senior Managing Director (Karnataka, Kerala), India, JLL.

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Crime

After Jyoti Malhotra’s arrest, another YouTuber held in Punjab for espionage

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Chandigarh, June 4: After YouTuber Jyoti Malhotra, who was arrested for allegedly spying for Pakistan, Punjab Police on Wednesday claimed to have unearthed a critical espionage network linked to another YouTuber, Jasbir Singh, a resident of Rupnagar.

Jasbir Singh, who operates a YouTube channel called ‘JaanMahal’, has been found associated with Pakistani intelligence operative Shakir, alias Jutt Randhawa, part of a terror-backed espionage network.

He also maintained close contact with Haryana-based Jyoti Malhotra and Ehsan-ur-Rahim, alias Danish, a Pakistani national and expelled Pakistan High Commission official, Director General of Police (DGP) Gaurav Yadav informed on X.

Investigations have revealed that Jasbir attended the Pakistan National Day event in Delhi on Danish’s invitation, where he met Pakistani army officials and bloggers.

He travelled to Pakistan on three occasions (2020, 2021, 2024), and his electronic devices contained multiple Pakistan-based numbers, now under detailed forensic scrutiny, said the DGP.

After Jyoti Malhotra’s arrest, Jasbir attempted to erase all traces of his communications with these Pakistani intelligence operatives to avoid detection.

A first information report (FIR) has been registered in Mohali, near here. The DGP added that investigations are underway to dismantle the broader espionage-terror network and identify all collaborators.

A day earlier, Counter-Intelligence Punjab, in a joint operation with Tarn Taran police, had arrested a man linked to Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) for sharing sensitive information concerning army movements during Operation Sindoor.

The accused was identified as Gagandeep Singh, alias Gagan, a resident of Tarn Taran town.

DGP Yadav had said preliminary investigation has revealed that Gagandeep Singh was in direct contact with Pakistan-based Khalistani supporter Gopal Singh Chawla for past five years, through whom he was introduced to Pakistani intelligence operatives.

Investigations also revealed that the accused had been sharing classified information, including troop deployments, strategic locations, and army movements during Operation Sindoor, posing a serious threat to national security.

The DGP had said police teams have recovered two mobile devices from the possession of the accused, containing sensitive intelligence that he shared with the Pakistani intelligence operatives, as well as the details of over 20 ISI contacts.

The accused also received payments from operatives via Indian channels.

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National

Abhishek Banerjee not to attend MEA meet on Op Sindoor, cites Kaliganj bypoll

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Kolkata, June 4: Trinamool Congress General Secretary Abhishek Banerjee, one of the members of an all-party delegation that visited various countries, will not attend a meeting of the Ministry of External Affairs convened on Thursday.

He said this in Kolkata after returning from abroad. Banerjee was a member of the all-party delegation led by JD(U) MP Sanjay Kumar Jha, which is a part of India’s global outreach efforts following Operation Sindoor, a strong military response to the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack.

The team included MPs from the Janata Dal (United), the BJP, Congress, CPI(M), and Trinamool Congress and visited Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, and Malaysia.

Banerjee said he has already informed the office of the External Affairs Minister about his inability to attend the meeting. Instead, he added, he would write to EAM Jaishankar about his take on the delegation tour’s outcome.

He also said that after giving the written communication to the External Affairs Minister, he would speak on that to the media persons.

“We had toured five countries during the last 15 days. We attended several meetings. On Thursday, the External Affairs Minister will convene a meeting. But I will not be able to attend that. I have some pre-scheduled engagements. I was out of the country for some time. In the meantime, the by-election for Kaliganj has been announced. I have some work in my Parliamentary area. I will be busy with that for the next few days. I will inform the External Affairs Ministry about my opinion in writing. Once I inform the ministry, I will speak on that matter,” Banerjee told media persons.

Initially, cricketer-turned-politician and Trinamool Congress Lok Sabha member from Baharampur constituency in Murshidabad district of West Bengal, Yusuf Pathan, was chosen by the Centre as the party representative in the multi-party delegation.

Both West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and Abhishek Banerjee expressed grievance over the manner of selection of Pathan, and both alleged that the Centre nominated the former cricketer without giving prior information to the Trinamool Congress leadership, including the CM.

Thereafter, Pathan’s name was withdrawn from the delegation, and Abhishek Banerjee replaced him.

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