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FY22 GDP growth seen at 8.2-8.5%, for Q4 at 2.7%: SBI Ecowrap report

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The State Bank of India’s (SBI) research report Ecowrap, in its latest edition, projected India’s GDP growth for FY22 to be at 8.2-8.5 per cent.

For Q4FY22, the report projected growth at 2.7 per cent.

“We however believe the GDP projection for Q4FY22 is clouded by significant uncertainties. For example, even a 1 per cent downward revision in Q1 GDP estimates of FY22 from 20.3 per cent, all other things remaining unchanged could push Q4 GDP growth to 3.8 per cent,” the report said.

Early trend of Q4FY22 results for corporates, in the listed space, reported better growth across parameters as compared to Q4FY21 albeit contraction in operating margin due to higher input costs. Sectors such as steel, FMCG, chemicals, IT-software, auto ancillary, and paper reported better growth numbers.

However, automobile, cement, capital goods-electrical equipment, and edible oil reported growth in the top line in Q4FY22, registered negative growth in PAT.

“Meanwhile globally, while the average real GDP Y-o-Y growth in Q1 2022 for 25 economies at 5.5 per cent is a tad higher than the preceding quarter, GDP growth is marking an abrupt reversal in major economies (the US, France, Italy, Sweden). The US economy unexpectedly contracted in the Q1 2022 (on sequential basis) amid a resurgence in Covid-19 cases and drop in pandemic relief money from the government. This is the first decline in GDP since the short and sharp pandemic recession nearly two years ago,” said the report.

Investors are already wary of rising inflationary pressures, however, certain economic data including new jobless claims rising to a four-month high and negative leading index have further sparked concerns that pricing pressures are starting to now take a toll on the economic growth.

On crude oil prices, the report said it was sceptical that prices may not sustain at high levels for a long time.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to hike rates in the June policy meeting and the cumulative rate hike in June and August is likely to be 75 basis points, it said.

The report added that the best thing that has emerged during the pandemic is the coordinated policy response by both the government and the RBI in staving off the health crisis and now the inflation.

“The RBI has largely been successful in communicating to the market about its intentions and seems to have managed the art of managing expectations much better.”

Business

Join e-Shram portal to access AB-PMJAY benefits: Centre to platform workers

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New Delhi, March 8: The Labour Ministry on Saturday urged the platform workers to self-register themselves on e-Shram portal, so that they may be considered for the benefits under the scheme at the earliest.

The gig and platform economy is expanding, offering new jobs in sectors like ridesharing, delivery, logistics, and professional services.

NITI Aayog has projected that the gig economy in India will employ over 1 crore workers in 2024-25, subsequently reaching 2.35 crore by 2029-30.

Recognizing the contribution of the gig and platform workers to the nation’s economy, Union Budget 2025-26 announcement has provisions for registration of online platform workers on e-Shram portal, issue of identity cards, and healthcare coverage under Ayushman Bharat Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (AB-PMJAY).

The AB-PMJAY health scheme provides a cover of Rs 5 lakh per family per year for secondary and tertiary care hospitalisation across over 31,000 public and private empanelled hospitals in India.

For early implementation of these Budget provisions, the Ministry of Labour and Employment is soon launching the scheme, and has asked platform workers to register on e-Shram Portal for formal recognition and access to AB-PMJAY benefits.

“As a first step, Ministry requests the Platform Workers to self-register themselves on e-Shram portal, so that they may be considered for the benefits under the scheme at the earliest,” it added.

The platform aggregators are also requested to disseminate this information among the platform workers engaged with them and facilitate them to register on e-Shram portal.

Meanwhile, over 30.58 crore unorganised workers have been registered on the e-Shram Portal for receiving benefits under various social welfare schemes of the government.

The e-Shram portal has registered over 1.23 crore workers in 2024, averaging 33,700 enrolments per day.

The e-Shram portal is meant to register and support the unorganised workers by providing them with a Universal Account Number (UAN) on a self-declaration basis.

The e-Shram portal has been integrated with the National Career Service (NCS) Portal. An unorganised worker can register on NCS using his or her Universal Account Number (UAN) and search for suitable job opportunities. A link has also been provided to the workers registered on the e-Shram portal to seamlessly register on the NCS.

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₹122-Crore New India Co-op Bank Scam: EOW Issues Blue Corner Notice Against Ex-Chairman Hiren Bhanu & Wife

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Mumbai: The Economic Offences Wing (EOW) has intensified its crackdown on Hiren Bhanu and his wife Gauri, the absconding couple in the Rs122 crore scam at New India Cooperative Bank.

Blue Corner Notice Issued

The EOW has issued a Blue Corner notice against Hiren, the alleged mastermind and former chairman of the bank, and Gauri, who was the acting vice-chairman. Investigators have traced Hiren to Abu Dhabi and Gauri to Thailand, leading to the issuance of the notice. The EOW had initially issued a lookout circular.

Now, with confirmed foreign locations, the alert has been issued. The Blue Corner notice will help track Bhanus’ locations, monitor their activities, and facilitate their arrest.

According to EOW sources, the duo fled abroad just before the scam was exposed. As per the probe, Hitesh Mehta, the bank’s general manager, executed the fraud under the instructions of the Bhanu couple.

Reports indicate that they received Rs28 crore from the embezzled funds. Hiren fled to Dubai on January 26, while Gauri left for Thailand on February 10 just before the scam was uncovered on February 12.

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Cooling inflation reinforces case for potential RBI rate cuts: Report

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New Delhi, March 8: India’s inflation fell to 4.31 per cent in January from 5.22 per cent, approaching the RBI’s 4 per cent target after four months above 5 per cent and this trend reinforces the case for potential rate cuts, with the repo rate at 6.25 per cent, a new report showed on Saturday.

The observed market trajectory suggests a cautious sentiment among investors, potentially influenced by macroeconomic conditions, sector-specific developments, and global financial market trends, according to the Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund report.

The Nifty 500 Index declined by 7.88 per cent in February, reflecting contractions across multiple sectors. Factor-based strategies reflected broader market movement, while fixed-income instruments, including Nifty 5 year Benchmark G-Sec (+0.53 per cent), exhibited relative stability.

Globally, developed markets displayed mixed movements, where Switzerland (+3.47 per cent) and United Kingdom (+3.08 per cent) registered gains, while Japan (-1.38 per cent) showed a contraction, the report mentioned.

The US CPI inflation stood at 3 per cent, reflecting marginal increase from 2.90 per cent in the prior month.

Another HSBC report mentioned that India’s long-term outlook remains strong and the investment cycle is projected to be on a medium-term uptrend supported by government investment in infrastructure and manufacturing, pickup in private investments, and a recovery in the real estate cycle.

The HSBC Mutual Fund’s ‘Market Outlook Report 2025’ expects higher private investments in renewable energy and related supply chains, localisation of higher-end technology components, and India becoming a more meaningful part of global supply chains to support faster growth.

The real economy, as of now, has evinced resilience to global developments.

“Basis the growth-inflation numbers, the MPC’s last policy action as well as the MPC minutes, we believe the RBI-MPC would deliver another 25 bps cut at its April policy while continuing to stay nimble and flexible on its liquidity strategy,” the report projected.

For a third rate cut, inflation trajectory, monsoon outlook and global developments will possibly be key inputs going into the June policy meeting

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