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FY22 GDP growth seen at 8.2-8.5%, for Q4 at 2.7%: SBI Ecowrap report

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The State Bank of India’s (SBI) research report Ecowrap, in its latest edition, projected India’s GDP growth for FY22 to be at 8.2-8.5 per cent.

For Q4FY22, the report projected growth at 2.7 per cent.

“We however believe the GDP projection for Q4FY22 is clouded by significant uncertainties. For example, even a 1 per cent downward revision in Q1 GDP estimates of FY22 from 20.3 per cent, all other things remaining unchanged could push Q4 GDP growth to 3.8 per cent,” the report said.

Early trend of Q4FY22 results for corporates, in the listed space, reported better growth across parameters as compared to Q4FY21 albeit contraction in operating margin due to higher input costs. Sectors such as steel, FMCG, chemicals, IT-software, auto ancillary, and paper reported better growth numbers.

However, automobile, cement, capital goods-electrical equipment, and edible oil reported growth in the top line in Q4FY22, registered negative growth in PAT.

“Meanwhile globally, while the average real GDP Y-o-Y growth in Q1 2022 for 25 economies at 5.5 per cent is a tad higher than the preceding quarter, GDP growth is marking an abrupt reversal in major economies (the US, France, Italy, Sweden). The US economy unexpectedly contracted in the Q1 2022 (on sequential basis) amid a resurgence in Covid-19 cases and drop in pandemic relief money from the government. This is the first decline in GDP since the short and sharp pandemic recession nearly two years ago,” said the report.

Investors are already wary of rising inflationary pressures, however, certain economic data including new jobless claims rising to a four-month high and negative leading index have further sparked concerns that pricing pressures are starting to now take a toll on the economic growth.

On crude oil prices, the report said it was sceptical that prices may not sustain at high levels for a long time.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to hike rates in the June policy meeting and the cumulative rate hike in June and August is likely to be 75 basis points, it said.

The report added that the best thing that has emerged during the pandemic is the coordinated policy response by both the government and the RBI in staving off the health crisis and now the inflation.

“The RBI has largely been successful in communicating to the market about its intentions and seems to have managed the art of managing expectations much better.”

Business

IndiGo offers travel vouchers worth Rs 10,000 to severely impacted customers

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New Delhi, Dec 11: Limping back to normalcy, IndiGo on Thursday offered travel vouchers worth Rs 10,000 to customers who were severely impacted during the flight disruption earlier this month.

The airline “regrettably acknowledged” that several people travelling between December 3 and 5 were stranded for many hours at major airports nationwide. The crisis caused thousands of cancellations and delays, keeping passengers in long queues.

“We will offer travel vouchers worth Rs 10,000 to such severely impacted customers. These travel vouchers can be used for any future IndiGo journey for the next 12 months,” an IndiGo spokesperson said in a statement.

The compensation is in addition to the commitment under the existing government guidelines, as per which, IndiGo will provide compensation of Rs 5000 to Rs 10,000, depending on the block time of the flight, to those customers whose flights were cancelled within 24 hours of departure time.

IndiGo also noted that “all necessary refunds for cancelled flights have been initiated”, including bookings through a travel partner platform.

The airline said that it is “committed” to restoring a “safe, smooth, and reliable” experience.

Earlier in the day, IndiGo Chairman Vikram Singh Mehta said that the airline’s Board will bring in external technical experts to work with the management and identify the root causes behind last week’s massive flight disruptions.

He said the experts will help ensure that such large-scale operational failures never happen again.

Meanwhile, the company stated that all destinations in the airline’s network have been fully connected since December 8, and operations have stabilised since December 9.

On December 8, it flew more than 1,750 flights with just one same-day cancellation, and on December 9, it had over 1,800 flights and zero cancellations. Over 1,900 flights took off on December 10, while just two were cancelled on the same day.

On Thursday, IndiGo said it expects “to operate more than 1,950 flights with approximately 300,000 customers”.

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Sensex, Nifty turn volatile at open amid US Fed rate cut

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Mumbai, Dec 11: Indian stock markets opened on a volatile note on Thursday, swinging between gains and losses even as the US Federal Reserve announced a 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday.

The Sensex, which began the day slightly higher, soon slipped into the red and was trading at 84,312 during early trade, down 79 points or 0.09 per cent. The Nifty also erased its early gains and inched down to 25,750, lower by 8 points or 0.03 per cent.

“From a technical standpoint, Nifty holds immediate support at 25,600–25,650, while the 25,850–25,900 zone continues to act as a strong resistance that has repeatedly halted upward momentum,” analysts said.

“A decisive breakout above this resistance band will be essential to re-establish bullish traction. Conversely, a sustained move below the identified support range may extend the ongoing consolidation phase,” they added.

Infosys, Eternal, Tata Steel, Maruti Suzuki, Adani Ports, HCL Tech, SBI, TCS, L&T, and Tech Mahindra were among the early gainers on the Sensex, rising up to 1.1 per cent. However, Titan, Power Grid, Bharti Airtel, NTPC, Asian Paints, ITC, Reliance Industries, Bajaj Finserv, and ICICI Bank dragged the market with mild losses.

In the broader market, the Nifty MidCap index slipped 0.17 per cent, while the Nifty SmallCap index dropped 0.32 per cent.

Among sectors, IT stocks led the gains, with the Nifty IT index rising 0.70 per cent. This was followed by the Nifty PSU Bank index, which was up 0.65 per cent, the Nifty Metal index up 0.4 per cent, and the Nifty Auto index up 0.12 per cent.

On the other hand, FMCG stocks came under pressure, pushing the Nifty FMCG index down by 0.26 per cent.

Analysts said that domestic markets tracked global cues cautiously as investors assessed the impact of the Fed’s latest rate cut on capital flows and economic growth.

Meanwhile, on the flows front, FIIs offloaded equities worth Rs 1,651 crore on December 10, while DIIs recorded net purchases of more than Rs 3,752 crore.

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BSE launches 4 new BSE 100 large-cap TMC universe factor indices

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New Delhi, Dec 10: The Bombay Stock Exchange’s (BSE) subsidiary BSE Index Service on Wednesday announced the launch of four new factor Indices from the universe of BSE large-cap total market capitalisation (TMC) index with 5 per cent stock level capping.

The newly introduced indices are BSE large-cap 100 momentum 30, BSE large-cap 100 low volatility 30, BSE large-cap 100 enhanced value 30, and BSE large-cap 100 quality 30.

“BSE Index Services Pvt. Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary of BSE, today announced the launch of 4 new BSE factor indices from the BSE 100 large cap TMC index as the universe with 5 per cent stock level capping,” the exchange said in a press release.

These Indices are Reconstituted Quarterly, have a base value of 1000, and the first value date is June 20, 2005, along with the additional screening for the liquidity profile, the release added.

BSE large-cap 100 Momentum 30 will track the performance of the 30 companies in the BSE 100 large-cap TMC that exhibit the most persistence in their relative performance, based on their momentum scores. Constituents are weighted based on their momentum score.

BSE large-cap 100 Low Volatility 30 will measure the performance of the 30 least volatile companies in the BSE 100 large-cap TMC. Constituents are weighted by their inverse volatility.

BSE large-cap 100 Enhanced Value 30 measures the performance of the 30 companies in the BSE 100 large-cap TMC with the most attractive valuations, based on their value scores. Constituents are weighted based on their value score.

BSE large-cap 100 Quality 30 measures the performance of the 30 companies in the BSE 100 large-cap TMC that exhibit the most persistence in their relative performance, based on their momentum scores. Constituents are weighted based on their momentum score.

“Building on the success of factor launches on the BSE 500 universe earlier in the year, we are pleased to expand our factor family with the launch of four new factor indices, this time on the large-cap universe,” BSE Index Services Pvt. Ltd MD & CEO Ashutosh Singh said.

“These indices, in the same vein as our BSE 500 universe factor family, will be reset on a quarterly basis with the introduction of an innovative score-based only weighting method,” he added.

The index said that these new indices can be used for running passive strategies such as ETFs and Index Funds.

It can also be used for benchmarking of PMS strategies, MF schemes and fund portfolios. Additionally, investors can now access a broader spectrum of market opportunities, further enriching their investment strategies with this latest addition to BSE’s suite of indices.

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