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FY22 GDP growth seen at 8.2-8.5%, for Q4 at 2.7%: SBI Ecowrap report

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The State Bank of India’s (SBI) research report Ecowrap, in its latest edition, projected India’s GDP growth for FY22 to be at 8.2-8.5 per cent.

For Q4FY22, the report projected growth at 2.7 per cent.

“We however believe the GDP projection for Q4FY22 is clouded by significant uncertainties. For example, even a 1 per cent downward revision in Q1 GDP estimates of FY22 from 20.3 per cent, all other things remaining unchanged could push Q4 GDP growth to 3.8 per cent,” the report said.

Early trend of Q4FY22 results for corporates, in the listed space, reported better growth across parameters as compared to Q4FY21 albeit contraction in operating margin due to higher input costs. Sectors such as steel, FMCG, chemicals, IT-software, auto ancillary, and paper reported better growth numbers.

However, automobile, cement, capital goods-electrical equipment, and edible oil reported growth in the top line in Q4FY22, registered negative growth in PAT.

“Meanwhile globally, while the average real GDP Y-o-Y growth in Q1 2022 for 25 economies at 5.5 per cent is a tad higher than the preceding quarter, GDP growth is marking an abrupt reversal in major economies (the US, France, Italy, Sweden). The US economy unexpectedly contracted in the Q1 2022 (on sequential basis) amid a resurgence in Covid-19 cases and drop in pandemic relief money from the government. This is the first decline in GDP since the short and sharp pandemic recession nearly two years ago,” said the report.

Investors are already wary of rising inflationary pressures, however, certain economic data including new jobless claims rising to a four-month high and negative leading index have further sparked concerns that pricing pressures are starting to now take a toll on the economic growth.

On crude oil prices, the report said it was sceptical that prices may not sustain at high levels for a long time.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to hike rates in the June policy meeting and the cumulative rate hike in June and August is likely to be 75 basis points, it said.

The report added that the best thing that has emerged during the pandemic is the coordinated policy response by both the government and the RBI in staving off the health crisis and now the inflation.

“The RBI has largely been successful in communicating to the market about its intentions and seems to have managed the art of managing expectations much better.”

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India, New Zealand set to sign FTA for improved market access on April 27

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New Delhi, April 24: As India and New Zealand prepare to sign a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on Monday, both sides are expected to benefit from expanded trade ties and improved market access, New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has said.

Taking to the social media platform X, Luxon said, “We will sign a Free Trade Agreement with India on Monday.”

In a video message, Luxon said the agreement would improve market access for New Zealand exporters, particularly manufacturers of marine jet systems used in boats and exported to over 70 countries.

He added that the deal would help reduce trade barriers and strengthen commercial engagement between the two countries.

He also noted that certain exporters currently face tariffs while accessing the Indian market, and said the agreement would gradually ease such duties, improving competitiveness and supporting higher trade flows.

Luxon said the FTA would support increased business activity, employment opportunities and economic growth in New Zealand, while also strengthening bilateral trade linkages with India.

He added that the agreement would bring ‘more jobs, higher wages and more opportunities,’ highlighting the broader economic impact of the deal.

Once signed, the FTA is expected to expand trade and investment ties between the two countries and enhance export opportunities on both sides in a large and growing global market environment.

Earlier this month, legal verification of the New Zealand-India FTA was completed, with both countries agreeing to sign the pact on April 27 in the presence of a large contingent of business representatives, New Zealand Trade and Investment Minister Todd McClay said.

In a statement, McClay described the agreement as a “once-in-a-generation opportunity,” saying it would strengthen bilateral trade relations and provide improved access to each other’s markets.

He said that amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainty, strengthening trade partnerships remains important for long-term economic stability.

McClay added that signing the FTA would allow New Zealand to formally initiate parliamentary treaty examination, enabling public scrutiny of the agreement.

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Gold and silver prices slip nearly 1 pc amid geopolitical tensions

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Mumbai, Gold and silver prices started the session on a weaker note on Friday, with both precious metals declining by nearly 1 per cent in early trade on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).

Gold futures for June 5 opened 0.39 per cent or Rs 594 lower at Rs 1,51,167 per 10 grams compared to the previous close of Rs 1,51,761.

Later, the yellow metal touched an intra-day low of Rs 1,50,750, down 0.66 per cent or Rs 1,011. At the last count, it was trading at Rs 1,51,449, a decrease of Rs 312 or 0.21 per cent. During the session so far, gold has touched an intra-day high of Rs 1,51,457.

On the other hand, silver futures for May 5 declined as much as 0.95 per cent or Rs 2,313 to Rs 2,39,200, an intraday low. The white metal was trading at Rs 2,41,345, down Rs 168 or 0.07 per cent. It recorded an intraday high of Rs 2,41,382, down 0.05 per cent or Rs 131.

In the international market, precious metals also witnessed selling pressure. COMEX gold was down nearly 1 per cent at $4,684 per ounce, while COMEX silver also slipped around 1 per cent to $74.81 per ounce.

According to commodity analysts, gold and silver prices are under pressure due to a stronger US dollar, rising bond yields, and uncertainty over geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

They further said that crude oil moving back above $100 per barrel has raised inflation concerns, adding to pressure on precious metals.

Moreover, Brent crude was trading at more than $100 per barrel or 2 per cent higher.

Equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty also traded up to 1 per cent lower in early trade on Friday.

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Sensex, Nifty post notable losses amid weak global cues, sustained FII selling

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Mumbai, April 23: The Indian equity markets posted sharp losses early on Thursday tracking cautious global cues and sustained foreign institutional selling, after the recent rally.

As of 9.25 am, Sensex lost 671 points, or 0.85 per cent, to reach 77,845 and Nifty dipped 179 points, or 0.74 per cent, to reach 24,198.

Main broad-cap indices showed divergence with the benchmark indices, as the Nifty Midcap 100 dipped 0.34 per cent, and the Nifty Smallcap 100 lost 0.16 per cent.

All sectoral indices traded in red except pharma as well as oil and gas up 0.71 per cent and 0.02 per cent. Nifty auto and consumer durables were the top losers down 1.03 per cent and 1.61 per cent respectively.

The immediate support zone of Nifty is placed at near 24,100–24,000, while resistance is observed in the 24,400–24,500 range.

In the previous session, benchmark indices on a weaker note after failing to sustain higher levels. Selling pressure was visible in banking and financial stocks following their recent outperformance.

IT stocks also remained weak, tracking subdued global cues and uncertainty in overseas markets. FMCG, Energy and other defensive sectors showed relative resilience.

The US markets gained after President Donald Trump extended a ceasefire with Iran, saying it was warranted due to Tehran’s “seriously fractured” government.

President Trump said the ceasefire will be in place until Iran submits a proposal or concludes talks, even as the US military continues its blockade of Iranian ports.

On the fundamental side, earnings remain a strong tailwind, with Q1 earnings growth tracking and forward EPS estimates seeing upward revision, market participants said.

In Asian markets, China’s Shanghai index lost 0.74 per cent, and Shenzhen dipped 1.48 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei lost 1.06 per cent, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 1.2 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.91 per cent.

The US markets ended in green overnight as Nasdaq gained 1.64 per cent. The S&P 500 advanced 1.05 per cent, and the Dow Jones added 0.69 per cent.

On April 22, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold equities worth Rs 2,078 crore in India, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were also net sellers of equities worth Rs 1,078 crore.

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