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Fueling Inflation: Petrol, diesel prices set to rise as Crude to range around $95-125

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Hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, along with sustained demand, is expected to keep global crude oil prices in the range of $95-to-$125 per barrel in the short term.

Consequently, the geo-political crisis-led global hike in crude oil prices is expected to push India’s domestic prices of petrol and diesel by Rs 15-22 per litre.

It is widely expected that the OMCs will revise the current prices on or after March 7, which is the last day of voting in the ongoing state assembly elections.

However, an excise duty cut may dampen the impact on petrol and diesel prices to an extent, but not entirely.

At present, India imports 85 per cent of its crude oil needs.

Besides, the cascading effect of higher fuel cost will trigger a general inflationary trend.

Already, India’s main inflation gauge — Consumer Price Index (CPI) — which denotes retail inflation, has crossed the target range of the Reserve Bank of India in January.

The rise was blamed on high commodities costs.

As per industry calculations, a 10 per cent rise in crude oil prices adds nearly about 10 basis points in CPI inflation.

Lately, the crisis as well as fears of lower supplies have pushed Brent crude oil price to 10-year-high level of nearly $120 per barrel.

On Friday, the Brent-indexed crude oil stood at $113.76 per barrel from a 10-year high of $119.84 per barrel a day before.

Currently, Russia is the third largest producer of crude oil in the world.

It is feared that sanctions against Russia will curtail global supplies and stifle growth.

“The fear of lower supplies with sanctions on Russia has weighed on upcoming supply from Iran. Crude oil prices may keep form trading range next week capping upside at $130 and support at $95 per barrel,” said Tapan Patel, Senior Analyst (Commodities), HDFC Securities.

“The higher oil prices has raised market expectations that govt of India may hike fuel prices post UP elections, expecting rise by Rs 10-15 per litre.”

Kshitij Purohit, Lead of Commodities and Currencies CapitalVia Global Research, said: “Brent Oil has challenged the $120 mark, but we are ready for a retracement at this moment.

“For the following week, it could trade in the $117 to $106 range.”

In addition, IIFL Securities VP, Research, Anuj Gupta said: “We expect the crude oil prices to range from $108 to $116 per barrel. Some price correction may take place on the back of positive outcome on the Iran nuclear deal.

“However, any escalations in tensions will push crude prices higher.”

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SIP inflows hit all-time high of Rs 26,632 crore in April: AMFI data

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Mumbai, May 9: India’s mutual fund industry saw a historic surge in systematic investment plan (SIP) contributions in April, with investors pouring in a record Rs 26,632 crore last month, according to data by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) released on Friday.

This marks the highest-ever SIP inflow for any month, the report said.

In April, 1.36 crore SIP accounts were either closed or matured as part of this process. However, investor interest remained strong. The number of active SIP accounts grew to 8.38 crore in April, up from 8.11 crore in March, showing that people are still keen on building long-term wealth through mutual funds.

April also saw the creation of 46 lakh new SIP accounts, higher than the 40.19 lakh new accounts opened in March.

AMFI said the spike in account closures was due to a planned clean-up and is likely to reduce sharply from May onwards.

“The sustained inflows underscore improving investor sentiment, supported by strong corporate earnings, resilient macroeconomic fundamentals, and a continued tilt towards equities as the preferred asset class,” said Himanshu Srivastava, Associate Director, Manager Research, Morningstar Investment Research India.

Notably, the absence of any major new fund launches during the month indicates that investors largely allocated capital to existing schemes — a testament to their confidence in the long-term growth prospects of Indian equity markets, he added.

The record-breaking investment came even as the industry undertook a large clean-up of inactive accounts.

Despite a slight dip in inflows into equity mutual funds, the overall mutual fund industry continued to grow rapidly.

Total assets under management (AUM) reached an all-time high of Rs 70 lakh crore in April.

This is a big jump from Rs 65.74 lakh crore recorded in March — showing strong investor confidence in the market.

Large-cap mutual funds, which had faced outflows in recent months, bounced back with net inflows of Rs 2,671.46 crore in April.

This was a slight increase from Rs 2,479.31 crore in March. According to the report, this suggest that investors are regaining interest in these relatively stable funds.

Mid-cap funds attracted Rs 3,313 crore during the month, a minor drop from Rs 3,438.87 crore in March.

Meanwhile, small-cap funds continued to perform steadily, drawing Rs 3,999.95 crore in April, only slightly lower than the Rs 4,092 crore they received the month before.

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India, Chile make progress on comprehensive economic partnership agreement

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New Delhi, May 9: India and Chile have signed the terms of reference (ToR) for a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA), marking a significant advancement in their bilateral trade relations, the government said on Friday.

The mutually-agreed ToR were signed by Juan Angulo, Ambassador of Chile in India and Vimal Anand, Joint Secretary in Department of Commerce, who is also the Chief Negotiator for India-Chile CEPA from the Indian side.

Both sides reiterated their shared vision for strengthening bilateral relations and look forward to fruitful discussion during the first round scheduled in the national capital from May 26-30.

According to the Commerce Ministry, the CEPA aims to build upon the existing PTA (preferential trade agreement) between the two nations and seeks to encompass a broader range of sectors, including digital services, investment promotion and cooperation, MSME and critical minerals, etc. thereby enhancing economic integration and cooperation.

India and Chile are strategic partners and close allies, sharing warm and cordial relations.

Bilateral ties have steadily strengthened over the years with the exchange of high-level visits. A Framework Agreement on Economic Cooperation was signed between the two countries in January, 2005, followed by PTA in March, 2006.

Since then, economic and commercial relations between India and Chile have remained robust and continue to grow.

According to the ministry, an expanded PTA was subsequently signed in September 2016 and became effective from May 16, 2017.

In April 2019, both countries agreed to pursue a further expansion of the PTA with three rounds of negotiations between the years during 2019-2021. To deepen their economic engagement, both sides expressed their intention to negotiate a CEPA to unlock the full potential of their trade and commercial relationship, boosting employment, facilitating investment promotion, and cooperation and exports, as suggested by the Joint Study Group established under the Framework Agreement.

The JSG report was finalised and signed on April 30, 2024.

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Pakistan stock markets continue to bleed, down 14 pc since Pahalgam attack

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New Delhi, May 8: The stock markets in Pakistan further tanked on Thursday, as trading was halted at the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) amid rising geopolitical tensions.

Karachi Stock Exchange fell more than 6 per cent on Thursday before the trading was halted. The stock exchange has been witnessing a continuous decline since the barbaric Pahalgam terror attack.

The main index, Karachi Stock Exchange 100 Index (KSE-100), has slipped by more than 13 per cent since April 22 when the terror attack happened, killing 26 people, most of them tourists.

On April 22, the KSE-100 index was at 1,18,430, which has now dropped to 1,03,060.

Apart from this, another Pakistani stock index, KSE-30, has also fallen more than 14 per cent since April 22.

Amid the grim state of the stock markets, Pakistan has only $15 billion of foreign exchange reserves left and is on the verge of economic collapse.

The country is seeking a fresh loan worth $1.3 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to run its economy.

Pakistan’s economy, in the initial years after independence, grew at the same pace as India’s, backed by US aid and donations from the oil-rich Islamic nations.

However, while democratic India kept its focus on economic development and lifting its masses out of poverty, Pakistan has been rocked by bloody coups and military dictatorships, with the army Generals still calling the shots and fuelling hostility against its more prosperous neighbour.

Pakistan was on the brink of sovereign default in 2023 and had to be bailed out by a $3 billion IMF loan.

The country is still critically dependent on this financial lifeline and is desperately trying to raise another $1.3 billion climate resilience loan.

Overall, the neighbouring nation now faces an economic freefall – crippled by political chaos and the long-term cost of harbouring terrorism.

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