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Fueling Inflation: Petrol, diesel prices set to rise as Crude to range around $95-125

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Hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, along with sustained demand, is expected to keep global crude oil prices in the range of $95-to-$125 per barrel in the short term.

Consequently, the geo-political crisis-led global hike in crude oil prices is expected to push India’s domestic prices of petrol and diesel by Rs 15-22 per litre.

It is widely expected that the OMCs will revise the current prices on or after March 7, which is the last day of voting in the ongoing state assembly elections.

However, an excise duty cut may dampen the impact on petrol and diesel prices to an extent, but not entirely.

At present, India imports 85 per cent of its crude oil needs.

Besides, the cascading effect of higher fuel cost will trigger a general inflationary trend.

Already, India’s main inflation gauge — Consumer Price Index (CPI) — which denotes retail inflation, has crossed the target range of the Reserve Bank of India in January.

The rise was blamed on high commodities costs.

As per industry calculations, a 10 per cent rise in crude oil prices adds nearly about 10 basis points in CPI inflation.

Lately, the crisis as well as fears of lower supplies have pushed Brent crude oil price to 10-year-high level of nearly $120 per barrel.

On Friday, the Brent-indexed crude oil stood at $113.76 per barrel from a 10-year high of $119.84 per barrel a day before.

Currently, Russia is the third largest producer of crude oil in the world.

It is feared that sanctions against Russia will curtail global supplies and stifle growth.

“The fear of lower supplies with sanctions on Russia has weighed on upcoming supply from Iran. Crude oil prices may keep form trading range next week capping upside at $130 and support at $95 per barrel,” said Tapan Patel, Senior Analyst (Commodities), HDFC Securities.

“The higher oil prices has raised market expectations that govt of India may hike fuel prices post UP elections, expecting rise by Rs 10-15 per litre.”

Kshitij Purohit, Lead of Commodities and Currencies CapitalVia Global Research, said: “Brent Oil has challenged the $120 mark, but we are ready for a retracement at this moment.

“For the following week, it could trade in the $117 to $106 range.”

In addition, IIFL Securities VP, Research, Anuj Gupta said: “We expect the crude oil prices to range from $108 to $116 per barrel. Some price correction may take place on the back of positive outcome on the Iran nuclear deal.

“However, any escalations in tensions will push crude prices higher.”

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Cong flags sharp rupee decline in Rajya Sabha, warns of widespread economic strain

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New Delhi, Dec 4: During Zero Hour in the Rajya Sabha on Thursday, Congress MP from Madhya Pradesh Vivek Tankha voiced deep concern over what he described as the “freefall of the Indian rupee” and the widening economic distress affecting ordinary citizens across the country.

Calling the issue “extremely topical and urgent”, Tankha said the currency’s sharp decline was inflicting widespread financial strain on households, businesses and key sectors of the economy.

Tankha noted that the rupee had crashed past Rs 90 per US dollar — touching between 90.14 and 90.19 — marking the weakest level in India’s history. Over the past five years, he said, the rupee has lost between 20 per cent and 27 per cent of its value, effectively reducing the purchasing power of people’s income by nearly one fourth. In global terms, the rupee has fallen 5 per cent this year alone, its steepest drop since 2022, making it one of Asia’s worst-performing currencies in 2025.

He further highlighted that India recently recorded a monthly trade deficit exceeding USD 40 billion, underscoring how sharply imports outweigh exports. At the same time, foreign investors have withdrawn more than USD 17 billion from Indian markets this year — the largest outflow in several years — drying up capital and weakening investor sentiment.

“FDI flows are stagnant, external borrowings have slowed, and the world is becoming increasingly wary of India’s external stability,” Tankha warned.

Emphasising the direct impact on citizens, he said that every bout of rupee depreciation makes imports costlier, and India relies heavily on imported fuel, cooking gas, electronic machinery and medicines. A 5 per cent fall in the rupee, he explained, pushes inflation up by 30-35 basis points.

“Every household ends up paying more. Food prices rise, transport costs increase, and a chain reaction follows that hits the poor the hardest,” he said.

The middle class, he added, is also feeling the squeeze as the prices of smartphones, laptops, medical equipment, school supplies, clothing and household appliances rise due to India’s dependence on imported components.

“For the common person, a falling rupee feels like a salary cut without the employer informing you. Your money buys less every day,” he remarked.

Tankha also drew attention to the pressure on Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), many of which rely on imported raw materials. These businesses are facing a 20-30 per cent rise in input costs, shrinking already thin margins.

Machinery imports have become more expensive, slowing expansion and putting jobs at risk. Exporters, he said, are not gaining from the weaker rupee because major export sectors — such as textiles, chemicals and engineering goods — depend heavily on imported intermediaries.

“Small manufacturers are caught in a double blow: higher costs and weaker demand,” he said.

Companies with foreign currency loans are also struggling, with repayment costs rising by 15-20 per cent due to the rupee’s depreciation, weakening corporate balance sheets and threatening financial stability.

A falling rupee, Tankha added, discourages overseas investors, creating a “vicious cycle” where declining confidence further accelerates currency pressure. “As the rupee falls, investors pull out, and markets shift,” he cautioned.

Tankha urged the government to recognise the seriousness of the situation and take urgent corrective measures to stabilise the currency and safeguard vulnerable sectors of the economy.

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Sensex, Nifty open lower amid weak global cues

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Mumbai, Dec 4: Indian stock markets opened weak on Thursday as pressure from a falling rupee and continued foreign investor selling kept sentiment muted on Dalal Street.

The opening also coincided with the weekly F&O expiry for the Sensex, adding to the cautious mood among traders.

The rupee hit a fresh record low of 90.56 against the US dollar in early trade, worsening concerns about capital outflows.

The sustained depreciation has been fuelled by steady foreign investor selling, firm demand for the dollar, and lingering uncertainty surrounding India’s trade negotiations with the US.

Against this backdrop, the benchmark Sensex began the day at 84,958, down 148 points or 0.17 per cent. The Nifty opened at 25,953, slipping 33 points or 0.13 per cent.

Most heavyweight stocks on the Sensex traded lower in the morning session. HUL, Titan, Eternal, ICICI Bank, Power Grid, Trent, Ultratech Cement, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Motors PV, NTPC, Bajaj Finance, and HDFC Bank were among the major laggards.

Only a handful of large-cap counters managed to stay in the green. IT majors TCS, HCL Tech, Infosys, and Tech Mahindra led the gainers’ list, supported by a stronger dollar. Asian Paints and Bharti Airtel also opened with mild gains.

In the broader market, sentiment was mixed. The Nifty MidCap index edged up 0.17 per cent, showing some resilience, while the Nifty SmallCap index slipped 0.07 per cent.

Market participants said the recent pressure on equities is closely linked to the rupee’s sharp fall. After breaching the 90-per-dollar mark on Wednesday, the currency’s slide has become a key worry for investors, raising concerns over imported inflation and higher costs for companies dependent on overseas supplies.

With global cues still uncertain and the domestic currency under strain, traders expect markets to remain volatile through the day, according to experts.

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India-AI Impact Summit 2026 to generate actionable recommendations: Minister

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New Delhi, Dec 3: Reflecting India’s growing role in global AI discussions, the country will host the India-AI Impact Summit 2026 here from February 16–20, the government said on Wednesday.

For the first time, the global AI summit series will take place in the Global South and the shift signals a broader move toward a more inclusive global AI dialogue, said Union Minister of State for Electronics and IT, Jitin Prasada, in Lok Sabha.

“In line with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision, the government is democratising the development and usage of technology. The focus is using Artificial Intelligence (AI) for solving real-world problems and ultimately improving lives across various sectors,” said the minister.

In this regard, the government has taken an inclusive and innovation-friendly approach to AI governance. India’s AI strategy has been formed after studying legal frameworks around the world and extensive consultation with stakeholders. A key pillar of India’s AI strategy is its balanced and pragmatic techno-legal approach to regulation.

The summit reflects India’s growing role in global AI discussions. It follows the UK AI Safety Summit, AI Seoul Summit, Paris AI Action Summit (which India co-chaired), and the Global AI Summit on Africa.

This demonstrates that the Summit is situated within a broader global discourse and seeks to contribute to harmonised international cooperation on responsible AI development, said the minister.

The thematic priorities of the Summit, referred to as the seven ‘Chakras’, underline its key objectives. These include Human Capital, Inclusion, Safe and Trusted AI, Resilience, Innovation and Efficiency, Democratizing AI Resources, and AI for Economic Development and Social Good.

These thematic areas encompass issues such as AI safety, data governance, transparency, human-centred development and accountability frameworks. These discussions are aligned to drive the strategic direction of the Summit’s events and deliberations.

The Summit is intended to generate actionable recommendations that contribute to long-term AI governance objectives rather than framing immediate binding regulations.

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