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Fueling Inflation: Petrol, diesel prices set to rise as Crude to range around $95-125

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Hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, along with sustained demand, is expected to keep global crude oil prices in the range of $95-to-$125 per barrel in the short term.

Consequently, the geo-political crisis-led global hike in crude oil prices is expected to push India’s domestic prices of petrol and diesel by Rs 15-22 per litre.

It is widely expected that the OMCs will revise the current prices on or after March 7, which is the last day of voting in the ongoing state assembly elections.

However, an excise duty cut may dampen the impact on petrol and diesel prices to an extent, but not entirely.

At present, India imports 85 per cent of its crude oil needs.

Besides, the cascading effect of higher fuel cost will trigger a general inflationary trend.

Already, India’s main inflation gauge — Consumer Price Index (CPI) — which denotes retail inflation, has crossed the target range of the Reserve Bank of India in January.

The rise was blamed on high commodities costs.

As per industry calculations, a 10 per cent rise in crude oil prices adds nearly about 10 basis points in CPI inflation.

Lately, the crisis as well as fears of lower supplies have pushed Brent crude oil price to 10-year-high level of nearly $120 per barrel.

On Friday, the Brent-indexed crude oil stood at $113.76 per barrel from a 10-year high of $119.84 per barrel a day before.

Currently, Russia is the third largest producer of crude oil in the world.

It is feared that sanctions against Russia will curtail global supplies and stifle growth.

“The fear of lower supplies with sanctions on Russia has weighed on upcoming supply from Iran. Crude oil prices may keep form trading range next week capping upside at $130 and support at $95 per barrel,” said Tapan Patel, Senior Analyst (Commodities), HDFC Securities.

“The higher oil prices has raised market expectations that govt of India may hike fuel prices post UP elections, expecting rise by Rs 10-15 per litre.”

Kshitij Purohit, Lead of Commodities and Currencies CapitalVia Global Research, said: “Brent Oil has challenged the $120 mark, but we are ready for a retracement at this moment.

“For the following week, it could trade in the $117 to $106 range.”

In addition, IIFL Securities VP, Research, Anuj Gupta said: “We expect the crude oil prices to range from $108 to $116 per barrel. Some price correction may take place on the back of positive outcome on the Iran nuclear deal.

“However, any escalations in tensions will push crude prices higher.”

Business

FM Sitharaman to showcase India’s economic dynamism during US, Peru visit

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New Delhi, April 19: Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is set to embark on an official visit to the US and Peru, beginning April 20, where she is slated to participate in multilateral dialogues to showcase India’s economic dynamism, as the country prepares a bilateral trade agreement (BTA) with the US, it was announced on Saturday.

During her visit to the US, the Finance Minister will visit San Francisco and Washington, DC, from April 20-25, according to a Ministry of Finance statement.

In San Francisco, FM Sitharaman would deliver a keynote address at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, titled ‘Laying the foundations of Viksit Bharat 2047,’ followed by a fireside chat session.

The Finance Minister will also interact with top CEOs from prominent fund management firms during a roundtable meeting with investors, besides holding bilateral meetings with CEOs from top information technology (IT) firms based in San Francisco.

She will also participate in an event featuring the Indian diaspora in San Francisco and interact with the Indian community settled there, said the ministry.

In Washington, DC, FM Sitharaman will participate in the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, the 2nd G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors (FMCBG) Meetings, the Development Committee Plenary, IMFC Plenary, and Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable (GSDR) meeting.

On the sidelines of the Spring Meetings, she will hold bilateral meetings with her counterparts from several countries, including Argentina, Bahrain, Germany, France, Luxembourg, Saudi Arabia, United Kingdom, and the US; besides meeting EU Commissioner for Financial Services; President, Asian Development Bank (ADB); President, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB); United Nations Secretary-General’s Special Advocate for Financial Health (UNSGSA); and First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

During her maiden visit to Peru from April 26-30, the Finance Minister will lead an Indian delegation of officials from the Ministry of Finance and business leaders, highlighting the strengthening bilateral economic and trade relations between the two nations.

Beginning her visit in Lima, she is expected to call on the President of Peru, Dina Boluarte, and Prime Minister Gustavo Adrianzen, besides holding bilateral meetings with the Peruvian Ministers of Finance and Economy, Defence, Energy and Mines, and also holding interaction with local public representatives.

The Finance Minister will chair the India-Peru Business Forum meeting with prominent business representatives in attendance from both India and Peru.

FM Sitharaman will also hold an interaction with the Indian investors and businesses currently operating in Peru, as well as the Indian business delegation visiting Peru. The Finance Minister will also participate in a community event in Lima, where she will interact with the Indian diaspora living in Peru, according to the ministry statement.

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Foreign investors infuse Rs 8,500 crore into Indian equities this week

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Mumbai, April 19: Foreign investors have once again turned their attention to Indian equities, pumping in around Rs 8,500 crore during the week, as per the latest National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) data.

The inflows came in during just three trading sessions — Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday — as stock markets remained closed on Monday and Friday due to public holidays.

This marks a positive turnaround after months of consistent selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) in the equity segment. Their return helped the markets end the week on a strong note.

Both the Indian equity indices wrapped up the week on a strong recovery by surging over 4.5 per cent — driven by positive signals from both domestic and global factors.

The rally was primarily fuelled by optimism surrounding the deferral of tariffs and recent exemptions on select products, raising hopes for potential negotiations that could mitigate the impact on global trade.

A key reason behind this fresh wave of investment is the weakening of the US dollar. As the dollar slips and currencies like the Indian rupee gain strength, global investors find it more attractive to move funds from the US to emerging markets like India.

While these inflows bring temporary relief to the markets, analysts say the coming weeks will be crucial.

“Investors will be watching closely to see whether this positive trend continues or if global factors once again influence foreign investment in Indian stocks,” experts noted.

As per market experts, in the coming week, market participants will closely watch the quarterly earnings of major companies like Infosys, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank.

Other key players, including HCL Technologies, Axis Bank, Hindustan Unilever and Maruti Suzuki India are also set to release their financial results.

Meanwhile, the expiry of the April derivatives series could add to market volatility. On the global front, any developments related to tariffs and their potential impact on international markets will also be closely tracked, the experts mentioned.

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Calcutta HC allows NGO to distribute relief material in communal violence-hit Murshidabad

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Kolkata, April 17: A single-judge bench of the Calcutta High Court, on Thursday, permitted a non-government organisation (NGO) to visit the communal violence-hit Murshidabad and distribute relief material among the affected people.

While granting permission to the NGO christened ‘Khola Hawa (Open Air)’, which was earlier denied permission by the district administration, the single-judge bench of Justice Amrita Sinha observed that there was no rule that organisations other than government bodies would not have permission to distribute relief materials at any place.

She also observed that the existing law and order problem could not be an excuse for denying permission, since the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) were already posted in Murshidabad.

The NGO approached the bench of Justice Sinha after the Murshidabad district magistrate denied permission for its members to visit the troubled spots in the district to distribute relief there. Parts of Murshidabad district in West Bengal have been on the boil last week after protests over the Waqf (Amendment) Act turned violent.

In the petition, the NGO alleged that while the district administration was allowing different political parties to reach the troubled spots with relief materials, the permission to the organisation was deliberately denied.

The matter came up for hearing on Thursday afternoon. The counsel for the NGO argued that there was no reason for the district magistrate to deny the permission since the state Director General of Police had already claimed that the situation at Murshidabad was currently more or less normal. “The NGO members want to go there to distribute relief items like tarpaulin, food, and medicines to those affected,” the counsel of Khola Hawa argued.

Although the state government opposed the arguments, Justice Sinha finally accepted the argument of the counsel of Khola Hawa and permitted the NGO to visit the troubled spots and distribute relief items there.

However, she maintained that only three members of a relief team should visit any troubled spot at a time for the time being. At the same time, these three team members would have to inform the district magistrate at least 24 hours in advance about their visit. The visiting team members, as per the court order, should also not make any provocative statements during the process of relief distribution that might trigger tension in the area again.

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