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Gold Rush: Ukraine war to push global prices to $2k

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Rush for safe haven investments during the ongoing market volatility triggered by Russian-Ukrainian conflict is expected to push global gold prices higher.

Accordingly, the fears of supply shortages along with robust demand has kept prices higher.

Besides, sanctions on Russia which is a major producer of Gold is expected to reduce supply.

Last week, MCX gold prices increased sharply by 4.66 per cent to Rs 52,559 levels.

Besides, ‘Spot Gold’ prices increased by 4.30 per cent to $1,970.35 per ounce.

Notably, gold prices have increased by more than $40, accelerating a well-defined upward trend that began in the first week of March.

“Geopolitical tension, sanctions over Russia as well as sell off in equity markets and depreciation in currency will increase Gold demand,” said IIFL Securities VP, Research, Anuj Gupta.

“We expect it to reach $2,000 in international market and Rs 54,000 on MCX in the short run.”

According to Tapan Patel, Senior Analyst (Commodities), HDFC Securities: “Gold prices are hovering near the resistance levels of $1,970 per ounce reporting the biggest weekly gain in the last two years. The geopolitical risk premium over the Russia-Ukraine conflict and global inflation worries may continue to boost buying in gold despite the Fed policy change.

“The global supply shock in commodities may keep inflation levels high with crude oil trading above $100 per barrel. We may see spot COMEX gold prices nearing $2,050 per ounce in the short term while on the domestic front Rs 53,800 can be the resistance level.”

In addition, Kshitij Purohit, Lead of Commodities and Currencies CapitalVia Global Research, said: “Gold’s influence on the global economy has been amplified by the synergistic effect of both geopolitical instability and existing inflationary pressures. Gold prices have risen to their highest level since August 2020.

“For the week, gold was roughly 4 per cent higher. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average, which is around $1,918. Near the November 2020 highs of 1,965, resistance is seen.”

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India to get preferential access in US market under trade pact: Piyush Goyal

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India has secured an assurance from the United States that Indian goods will enjoy preferential market access in the American market compared to competing countries under the proposed bilateral trade agreement (BTA), Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said on Sunday.

Speaking to reporters during his two-day visit to Egypt, Goyal said the understanding was already reached at the leadership level when Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump agreed on a broad framework for strengthening bilateral trade ties.

“This was already agreed between the leaders – President Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi when they announced that we have both come to a broad framework agreement a few months ago, and it has been acknowledged that India will get preferential trade access in the US with lower duties than our competitor countries,” Goyal said.

India and the US had finalised the framework for the first phase of the bilateral trade agreement in February, with both sides aiming to deepen economic engagement and expand market access.

However, the signing of the initial tranche has been delayed as the two countries continue negotiations amid changes in the US tariff regime.

The minister’s remarks come days after a senior government official said Washington had assured New Delhi of a comparative tariff advantage over competing nations under the proposed agreement.

The two sides are currently working towards concluding the first tranche of the pact by the end of the current financial year.

According to the official, discussions are continuing both on the first tranche and the broader bilateral trade agreement, while the final extent of tariff concessions and competitive advantages for Indian exports will depend on the framework eventually agreed upon.

Trade negotiations have gained added significance after the US Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs that had formed the basis of earlier discussions.

Following the ruling, the US has been exploring alternative mechanisms under provisions of the Trade Act to develop a new tariff architecture.

Goyal is currently in Egypt to hold discussions aimed at enhancing bilateral trade and investment ties, even as India pursues trade negotiations with several key partners, including the United States.

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Nifty above 25,000 keeps bullish trend intact despite Friday’s dip: Market experts

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Despite snapping a three-session winning streak on Friday, the Nifty’s ability to hold above the key 25,000 level and major long-term moving averages signals that the broader market structure remains positive, with analysts advising investors to buy on dips as long as critical support zones remain intact.

However, technical analysts said the recent correction has not altered the broader bullish setup.

According to market experts, the Nifty continues to maintain a positive weekly structure following its breakout above a previous swing high and a falling trendline resistance.

The index remains comfortably above its 50-week exponential moving average near 24,037 and its 200-week exponential moving average around 22,451, indicating sustained strength in the longer-term trend.

Analysts noted that while the latest Doji-like candlestick formation suggests some indecision and hesitation at higher levels, holding above the breakout zone will be crucial to preserving bullish momentum.

“On the upside, immediate resistance is placed at 25,350 and 25,800. A sustained breakout above this zone could open the door for further upside towards higher levels. On the downside, immediate support is seen in the 24,800–25,000 zone, which will remain crucial for sustaining the current bullish structure,” analysts stated.

“A sustained hold above this support region could attract fresh buying interest, while a decisive breakdown may lead to further consolidation. Traders may maintain a positive bias while remaining watchful of intermittent profit booking at higher levels,” according to the market experts.

For the Sensex, analysts identified the 81,300-81,000 range as immediate support, with the next support zone placed between 80,700 and 80,500.

They said the index will need to hold above these levels to sustain the current positive trend.

“Sensex closed lower on Friday, giving back a portion of its recent sharp gains. The immediate resistance is placed around 81,900–82,200, followed by 82,500. A sustained move above these levels could open the way for further upside,” market experts noted.

“On the downside, 81,300–81,000 forms the immediate support zone, followed by 80,700–80,500. Holding above the immediate support range will be important to preserve the prevailing positive momentum,” analysts noted.

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NITI Aayog to launch national workshop series on lessons from 25 years of PM Modi’s leadership

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NITI Aayog will launch a series of five national workshops on Tuesday to draw lessons from 25 years of Prime Minister Narendra Modi as Head of Government, with the series studying this quarter century of public leadership so that its lessons become part of the nation’s shared knowledge, according to an official statement issued on Sunday.

It will document the experiences of those who were part of this journey and translate them into knowledge that benefits all, according to an official statement issued on Sunday.

The Prime Minister assumed office as Chief Minister of Gujarat on October 7, 2001. After serving for more than 12 years in that office, he assumed office as Prime Minister in May 2014 and is now serving his third successive term. With the completion of 25 years on October 7, 2026, this marks the longest continuous tenure at the head of an elected government in India. Throughout this period, governance has been anchored in the idea of the ‘Pradhan Sevak’, under which every office of government exists to serve the citizens.

Antyodaya has set the measure of progress at the last person. Jan Bhagidari has made development a people’s movement. The principle of Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, Sabka Vishwas, Sabka Prayas has further strengthened this as a shared national undertaking. The goal of Viksit Bharat by 2047 has provided this approach a long horizon, asking every institution to plan and act for India as it approaches the centenary of Independence, the statement said.

Much of what India has learnt about governing at this scale is held in the experience of the officers, institutions, and citizens who took and carried through these decisions. The series will record their first-hand accounts and examine them with academic rigour. It will develop them into institutional learning material, including case studies, research papers and teaching material, for civil servants, training institutions, universities, students and the wider public.

The five national workshops will focus on the following governance themes: “Leadership as Mission” in November 2026, “Governance as Delivery” in January 2027, “Development as Inclusion” in April 2027, “Civilisational Identity” in July 2027, and “India as a Global Force” in September 2027.

The first national workshop, “Leadership as Mission”, will be held at Bharat Mandapam, in the national capital on November 17. It will study leadership through the specific decisions in which it becomes visible and the manner in which those decisions are translated into outcomes for citizens.

Around 900 participants are expected to attend the workshop, of whom 250 will participate directly in the deliberations. These will include 150 government officers, including Secretaries and senior officers of the Union and state governments and District Collectors of Aspirational Districts. The participants will also include 25 students of leading institutions and universities, and 50 community partners and beneficiaries of national flagship schemes. The group discussions will be guided by 25 case facilitators trained under the Amrit Gyaan Kosh initiative of the Capacity Building Commission. The proceedings will be streamed on the iGOT Karmayogi platform.

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