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Economists see RBI dividend to govt surpassing record Rs 2.5 lakh cr in 2025-26

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Mumbai, May 16: Economists expect the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) dividend to the government to surpass a record over Rs 2.5 lakh crore this year as the central bank earnings, through the sale of dollars to prop up the rupee as it sharply depreciated during 2024-25, are reported to have shot up. This higher profit will be transferred to the government as a dividend in 2025-26.

The previous record dividend transferred to the government stands at Rs 2.1 lakh crore during 2024-25 which helped to keep the fiscal deficit in check, while enabling the Finance Ministry to continue with its expenditure on big ticket infrastructure projects to spur growth and social welfare schemes to uplift the poor.

This was a record jump from the Rs 87,416 crore transferred to the government in 2023-24 for the profit made in 2022-23. Similarly, the government is expected to get another booster shot through the RBI dividend in the current financial year as well.

“Among the RBI’s earnings, forex transactions are expected to be most significant in light of the in light of the central bank’s measures to lower rupee volatility by strong dollar purchases earlier in fiscal 2025 and difference in the current versus historical exchange rate. Add to this the interest income on government securities and earnings from funds extended to banks in midst of previous tight liquidity. “This transfer could amount to a record high at around Rs 2.5-2.7 lakh crore this year,” said Radhika Rao, senior economist at DBS Bank.

Earnings on forex transactions are expected to be substantial with gross dollar sales tracking at $371.6 billion in fiscal 2025 till February compared to $153 billion in fiscal 2024, according to Gaura Sengupta, chief economist at IDFC First bank. She estimates the RBI dividend to be between Rs 2.6 lakh crore to Rs 3 lakh crore, according to an Media report.

The higher dividend creates fiscal space of 0.1 per cent to 0.2 per cent of GDP, estimates Sengupta. With support from the higher-than-budgeted RBI surplus and savings on a few expenditure heads, the central government is in a fairly strong position to counter the growth slowdown risks and any potential emergency spending requirements.

Apart from helping to lower the fiscal deficit, the RBI dividend will be a significant infusion to core liquidity in the banking system during the current financial year. This will help to keep interest rates low and allow banks to extend more loans to corporates and consumers to accelerate economic growth and create more jobs.

The RBI board of directors met on Thursday to review the economic capital framework which is the basis for deciding the surplus transfer or amount of dividend to be given to the government. The meeting comes ahead of deciding and approving the surplus transfer to the government.

The transferable surplus is determined on the basis of the ECF adopted by the Reserve Bank on August 26, 2019, as per recommendations of the Bimal Jalan-headed Expert Committee to Review the extant Economic Capital Framework of the RBI.

The Committee had recommended that the risk provisioning under the Contingent Risk Buffer (CRB) be maintained within a range of 6.5 to 5.5 per cent of the RBI’s balance sheet.

Business

Sensex, Nifty end higher as FMCG, banking and realty stocks lift benchmark indices

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Mumbai, July 1: Indian equity benchmark indices ended higher on Wednesday, supported by strong buying in FMCG, banking, financial and realty stocks.

The Nifty climbed 140.10 points, or 0.59 per cent, to close at 24,005.85, while the Sensex advanced 443.97 points, or 0.58 per cent, to settle at 76,922.64.

Commenting on Nifty technical outlook, experts said that the 24,100–24,200 region, which coincides with the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), continues to act as the immediate resistance zone.

“A sustained breakout above this band would reinforce bullish momentum and could pave the way for an advance towards the 24,400 region,” an analyst stated.

“On the downside, the 23,900–23,800 zone continues to serve as a crucial support area, closely aligned with the 20 and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs),” a market expert added.

Among the Nifty constituents, Eternal, Adani Enterprises and Nestle India emerged as the top gainers, helping lift the benchmark index.

The broader market also finished in positive territory, with the Nifty MidCap index rising 0.34 per cent and the Nifty SmallCap index gaining 0.36 per cent.

On the sectoral front, the Nifty Realty index led the gains, followed by the Nifty FMCG and Nifty Auto indices, as investors accumulated shares in these sectors. However, the Nifty IT, Nifty Metal and Nifty Pharma indices underperformed the broader market and ended with relatively weaker gains or losses.

Analysts said that domestic equities extended their upward momentum, with gains across key sectors outweighing weakness in information technology, metal and pharmaceutical stocks.

“The domestic markets entered H2 CY26 on an optimistic footing as multiple headwinds began to abate, with the anticipated US-India trade agreement, easing Middle East tensions, and benign oil prices emerging as the key drivers of positive sentiment,” an analyst added.

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MSC Group’s arm to invest around $1.4 billion for 49 pc share in Adani’s Vizhinjam port

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Ahmedabad, June 30: Adani Ports on Tuesday said it has entered into a definitive agreement with MSC Group under which MSC’s container terminal operating and investing arm Terminal Investment Limited (TiL) will invest for 49 per cent interest in Adani Vizhinjam Port Private Limited (AVPPL), the concessionaire for Vizhinjam port.

The strategic collaboration represents the single largest foreign private investment in Indian port infrastructure and cements Vizhinjam’s emergence as a dominant transshipment gateway in the Indian Ocean region.

TiL will invest $1.397 billion, equivalent to its proportionate 49 per cent share in Vizhinjam port in total deal value of $2.85 billion.

“Vizhinjam port has emerged as a premier transshipment hub and ramped up at an unprecedented pace, becoming the first Indian port to earn the unique distinction of crossing two million TEUs within 18 months of operations,” said Ashwani Gupta, Whole-time Director and CEO, APSEZ.

“I am delighted to expand APSEZ’s long-standing partnership with MSC to Vizhinjam, as we prepare for the port’s next leg of journey. I am confident that our association will deliver enhanced supply chain efficiencies at a global scale and improve India’s access to key global mature and developing markets,” Gupta said.

The transaction is subject to customary approvals, including regulatory ones.

The strategic collaboration between APSEZ and MSC Group will deliver significant advantages for APSEZ, including enhanced volume visibility and accelerated ramp-up ahead of plan, driven by additional cargo volumes; a higher share of Bangladesh cargo, largely dependent on competing Southeast Asian transshipment hubs; strengthen presence on East Africa trade routes; and elevated relay cargo volumes.

TiL is one of the world’s largest container terminal operators and part of the MSC Group comprising a portfolio of more than 100 container terminals across five continents and a throughput of more than 70 million TEUs per annum.

Commissioned in December 2024, Vizhinjam port is India’s first deep-draft mega transshipment port with 1.6 million TEU capacity. The port is undergoing expansion that will increase capacity 3.5x to 5.7 million TEUs by December 2028, according to the company.

Vizhinjam port is strategically located just 10 nautical miles from the East-West shipping route connecting Europe, the Persian Gulf, and the Far East.

During FY26, Vizhinjam port handled 1.3 million TEUs. In its first year, Vizhinjam port handled 1.3 million TEUs and 615 vessels, becoming the fastest Indian port to cross the one million TEU milestone.

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Business

Indian equity benchmarks open higher amid mixed global cues

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Mumbai, June 30: India’s benchmark equity indices opened higher on Tuesday amid mixed global cues, with investors also keeping an eye on the derivatives expiry and the start of the June quarter earnings season.

Sensex opened at 77,005.51, up 277.14 points or 0.36 per cent. Nifty also began the session mildly positive opening at 24,032.05, an increase of 85.80 points or 0.35 per cent.

Among sectoral indices, Nifty Realty led the gains, rising 0.54 per cent. Nifty Private Bank and Nifty Auto jumped up to 0.45 per cent. Buying was also seen in chemicals, PSU banks, oil and gas, consumer durables and healthcare stocks.

On the other hand, Nifty IT declined 0.18 per cent, while Nifty Metal slipped 0.13 per cent. Nifty FMCG was marginally lower.

From the Nifty stocks, Eicher Motors, Tata Consumer Products, Hindalco Industries, HDFC Life Insurance, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, Max Healthcare, SBI Life Insurance, Hindustan Unilever and Infosys were the top losers.

According to market experts, the absence of major near-term triggers is likely to keep markets range-bound, with investors shifting their focus to the upcoming June quarter (Q1) earnings season.

They added that momentum indicators have started showing signs of moderation, suggesting that the market may continue to consolidate in the near term.

“The market is currently consolidating within a defined range, and traders should watch for a decisive move above the 24,200 level or below 23,800 on the Nifty to confirm the next directional trend. Until then, range-bound trading with stock-specific action is expected to dominate market activity,” the experts said.

International oil benchmark Brent crude slipped 0.66 per cent to $73.42 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell nearly 1 per cent to trade around the $70-a-barrel mark.

Asian markets traded on a mixed note. Japan’s Nikkei gained more than 1 per cent and South Korea’s KOSPI also advanced over 1 per cent. However, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined by more than 1 per cent.

US markets ended in positive territory, with the S&P 500 rising 1.18 per cent and the Nasdaq Composite climbing nearly 2 per cent.

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