Business
ECB sets ‘moderately lower pace’ for bond buying
The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to leave its key interest rates unchanged and set a “moderately lower pace” for the Covid-19 pandemic-related bond buying.
“Based on a joint assessment of financing conditions and the inflation outlook, the Governing Council judges that favourable financing conditions can be maintained with a moderately lower pace of net asset purchases under the pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP) than in the previous two quarters,” the ECB said in a statement on Thursday.
Earlier this year, after its March and June meetings, the ECB decided that purchases under the PEPP in the second and third quarters would be conducted at a significantly higher pace than during the first months of the year, reports Xinhua news agency.
Thursday’s announcement came as eurozone inflation surged to three percent in August, the highest in ten years, according to a flash estimate published last week.
The ECB also left other policy measures largely unchanged.
Eurozone key interest rates will remain at record low levels, with the base interest rate, marginal lending rate and deposit rate unchanged at 0.00 per cent, 0.25 per cent and minus 0.50 per cent, respectively.
The PEPP, first rolled out in March last year to cushion the impact from the pandemic and expanded twice thereafter, has a total envelope of 1.85 trillion euros ($2 trillion) and is set to run until at least the end of March 2022.
The 3 per cent rise in eurozone headline inflation in August, together with a jump in core inflation to 1.6 per cent, had largely exceeded analysts’ expectations.
At a press conference on Thursday, ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated that the surge in inflation is expected to be temporary.
“Summing up, the euro area economy is clearly rebounding. However, the speed of the recovery continues to depend on the course of the pandemic and progress with vaccinations. The current rise in inflation is expected to be largely temporary and underlying price pressures will build up only gradually,” Lagarde told reporters.
According to the ECB, the inflation upswing mainly reflects the strong increase in oil prices since around the middle of last year; the reversal of the temporary value-added tax (VAT) reduction in Germany; delayed summer sales in 2020; and cost pressures due to supply chain issues — all of which should ease or fall out of the year-on-year inflation calculation over the course of 2022.
If supply bottlenecks last longer and feed through into higher than anticipated wage rises, price pressures could be more persistent, Lagarde said.
The ECB’s latest projections expect annual inflation in the eurozone to be 2.2 per cent in 2021, 1.7 per cent in 2022 and 1.5 percent in 2023, all revised upwards compared with the forecasts three months ago.
Lagarde also said policymakers believe that the eurozone’s growth will be back to the 2019 pre-pandemic level at the end of this year, which is two quarters earlier than initially anticipated.
The latest ECB staff projections foresee the eurozone’s real GDP to grow 5 per cent this year, 4.6 per cent in 2022 and 2.1 per cent in 2023.
Dutch bank ABN Amro said there was a little relief in the market that Thursday’s move is a slowdown rather than a taper.
It expects the PEPP to end in March 2022.
However, policy rates are likely to remain on hold through 2024, given the ECB’s symmetric 2 per cent inflation target and subdued inflation outlook in the medium term, according to the bank.
Business
India reaches 709 million active UPI QRs, logs 59.33 billion transactions in July-Sep

Mumbai, Dec 18: The unified payments interface (UPI) transaction volumes rose 33.5 per cent (year-on-year) to 59.33 billion transactions in the July-September period, as transaction value grew 21 per cent to Rs 74.84 lakh crore, a report showed on Thursday.
India reached 709 million active UPI QRs, marking a 21 per cent increase since July 2024. Dense QR acceptance across kiranas, pharmacies, transport hubs, and rural markets has made scan-and-pay the default payment mode nationwide, according to the report by Worldline India.
Person-to-merchant (P2M) transactions continued to outpace person-to-person (P2P), reflecting UPI’s dominance in everyday retail payments.
P2M transactions were up 35 per cent to 37.46 billion transactions while P2P transactions rose 29 per cent to 21.65 billion transactions, the report said.
The third quarter (Q3 2025) further reinforced India’s position as the world’s most dynamic real-time payments economy — where every scan, tap, and click is reshaping consumer and merchant behaviour.
The average ticket size declined to Rs 1,262 (from Rs 1,363), highlighting increased usage for micro-transactions such as mobility, food, healthcare essentials, and hyperlocal commerce.
Point of sale (PoS) terminals grew 35 per cent to 12.12 million (July 2024–July 2025). Bharat QR stood at 6.10 million, witnessing marginal decline amid the shift toward UPI QR dominance.
Private banks led acceptance deployment, accounting for 84 per cent market share. While credit card issuance grew by 8 per cent (on-year) to 113.39 million cards, debit cards reached 1.02 billion and prepaid cards stood at 470.1 million.
Credit card transactions grew 26 per cent to 1.45 billion, with transaction value at Rs 6.07 lakh crore. Debit card transactions declined 22 per cent, reflecting migration of low-ticket spends to UPI, the report showed.
Mobile and tap-based payments continued to accelerate, with contactless adoption gaining momentum across metros, mobility services, and quick-service retail.
“The outlook for Q4 2025 and early 2026 points to accelerated innovation and deeper ecosystem integration. Interoperable QR is expected to move from pilot phases to everyday usage across mobility, healthcare, fuel stations, and public utilities—delivering a unified scan-and-pay experience,” the report mentioned.
Business
Indian rupee likely to bounce back strongly in 2nd half of next fiscal: SBI report

New Delhi, Dec 17: Geopolitical uncertainties driven by the delay in the India-US trade deal have been the single-most important reasons for the rupee sliding against the US dollar, an SBI Research report said on Wednesday, adding that the rupee is likely to bounce back strongly in the second half of the next fiscal.
India’s trade data shows the remarkable resilience in navigating through prolonged uncertainty, more protectionism and labour supply shocks.
“While the geopolitical risk index has moderated since April 2025, the current average value of the index for April-October 2025 is much greater than its decadal average, which indicates how much pressure global uncertainties are exerting on INR,” State Bank of India’s (SBI) Group Chief Economic Advisor, Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, said.
Dr Ghosh further stated that consistent with their empirical analysis, “the rupee is currently in a depreciating regime and is likely to exit it”.
After breaching the psychologically important mark of 90 per US dollar, the rupee crossed the 91-level on Tuesday.
However, the rupee staged a sharp recovery on Wednesday, trading as strong as 90.25 during the day, as the cooling of crude prices also contributed to improved sentiment.
According to the SBI report, the data also indicates that the current fall is the quickest (in terms of number of days) of the rupee, scaled to 5 per USD. In less than a year, the rupee has slid from 85 to 90 per dollar.
The current slide appears to be primarily driven by FPI outflows, chiefly equities (after two years of robust inflows) and uncertainty regarding the US-India trade deal.
Since April 2, 2025, when the US announced sweeping tariff hikes across economies, the Indian rupee (INR) has depreciated by 5.7 per cent against USD (most amongst the major economies), notwithstanding sporadic phases of appreciation owing to optimism over the US-India trade deal.
“While INR is the most depreciated currency, it is not the most volatile. This clearly indicates that the 50 per cent tariff imposed on India is one of the major factors behind the current phase of rupee depreciation,” the SBI report noted.
Business
Indian markets hit fresh highs in November, outshine global peers: Report

Mumbai, Dec 17: Indian equity markets touched fresh all-time highs in November and clearly outperformed global markets, a new report said on Wednesday.
The data compiled by PL Asset Management said India emerged as a bright spot at a time when many global markets struggled due to weak technology stocks, fading enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and soft economic data from China.
The report noted that record-low inflation, steady domestic growth and reasonable valuations improved the overall outlook for investors.
“While global markets remained uneven, India benefited from strong local demand, supportive liquidity and a predictable policy environment,” the report said.
Inflation played a major role in boosting market sentiment during the month. Consumer price inflation fell sharply to just 0.25 per cent, the lowest level on record and far below the Reserve Bank of India’s target of 4 per cent.
This sharp fall strengthened expectations of further interest rate cuts, which supported equity valuations. Reflecting confidence in the economy, the RBI raised its GDP growth forecast for FY26 to 7.3 per cent.
India also recorded strong GDP growth of 8.2 per cent in the second quarter of FY26, reinforcing its position as the fastest-growing major economy in the world, the report said.
Domestic economic indicators remained healthy despite global challenges. Manufacturing activity stayed strong, even though exports were slightly affected by tariffs.
Goods and Services Tax collections remained robust at Rs 1.70 lakh crore, as per the report.
Festive season spending also supported growth. In addition, India’s current account deficit improved to 1.3 per cent of GDP.
Global markets, meanwhile, showed signs of fatigue. US technology stocks faced profit booking, China and Hong Kong markets weakened due to poor economic data, and investors turned to precious metals for safety.
Crude oil prices softened amid expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. Against this global backdrop, India’s stable fundamentals helped it continue to outperform.
Siddharth Vora, Head – Quant Investment Strategies & Fund Manager, PL Asset Management, said, “Indian markets continue to demonstrate relative resilience at a time when global risk assets are undergoing a phase of recalibration.”
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