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ECB sets ‘moderately lower pace’ for bond buying

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Christine-Lagarde

The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to leave its key interest rates unchanged and set a “moderately lower pace” for the Covid-19 pandemic-related bond buying.

“Based on a joint assessment of financing conditions and the inflation outlook, the Governing Council judges that favourable financing conditions can be maintained with a moderately lower pace of net asset purchases under the pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP) than in the previous two quarters,” the ECB said in a statement on Thursday.

Earlier this year, after its March and June meetings, the ECB decided that purchases under the PEPP in the second and third quarters would be conducted at a significantly higher pace than during the first months of the year, reports Xinhua news agency.

Thursday’s announcement came as eurozone inflation surged to three percent in August, the highest in ten years, according to a flash estimate published last week.

The ECB also left other policy measures largely unchanged.

Eurozone key interest rates will remain at record low levels, with the base interest rate, marginal lending rate and deposit rate unchanged at 0.00 per cent, 0.25 per cent and minus 0.50 per cent, respectively.

The PEPP, first rolled out in March last year to cushion the impact from the pandemic and expanded twice thereafter, has a total envelope of 1.85 trillion euros ($2 trillion) and is set to run until at least the end of March 2022.

The 3 per cent rise in eurozone headline inflation in August, together with a jump in core inflation to 1.6 per cent, had largely exceeded analysts’ expectations.

At a press conference on Thursday, ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated that the surge in inflation is expected to be temporary.

“Summing up, the euro area economy is clearly rebounding. However, the speed of the recovery continues to depend on the course of the pandemic and progress with vaccinations. The current rise in inflation is expected to be largely temporary and underlying price pressures will build up only gradually,” Lagarde told reporters.

According to the ECB, the inflation upswing mainly reflects the strong increase in oil prices since around the middle of last year; the reversal of the temporary value-added tax (VAT) reduction in Germany; delayed summer sales in 2020; and cost pressures due to supply chain issues — all of which should ease or fall out of the year-on-year inflation calculation over the course of 2022.

If supply bottlenecks last longer and feed through into higher than anticipated wage rises, price pressures could be more persistent, Lagarde said.

The ECB’s latest projections expect annual inflation in the eurozone to be 2.2 per cent in 2021, 1.7 per cent in 2022 and 1.5 percent in 2023, all revised upwards compared with the forecasts three months ago.

Lagarde also said policymakers believe that the eurozone’s growth will be back to the 2019 pre-pandemic level at the end of this year, which is two quarters earlier than initially anticipated.

The latest ECB staff projections foresee the eurozone’s real GDP to grow 5 per cent this year, 4.6 per cent in 2022 and 2.1 per cent in 2023.

Dutch bank ABN Amro said there was a little relief in the market that Thursday’s move is a slowdown rather than a taper.

It expects the PEPP to end in March 2022.

However, policy rates are likely to remain on hold through 2024, given the ECB’s symmetric 2 per cent inflation target and subdued inflation outlook in the medium term, according to the bank.

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ED Seizes ₹42 Lakh, Luxury Cars In Mumbai Drug Money Laundering Probe

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Mumbai: The Enforcement Directorate (ED) seized Rs 42 lakh in cash, three luxury cars, property papers, and several digital devices during a search operation on Wednesday targeting a drug trafficking and money laundering network. The agency also froze multiple bank accounts and a locker linked to alleged drug trafficker Faisal Javed Shaikh and his wife, Alfiya Faisal Shaikh.

Officials said the searches were conducted at nine locations across Mumbai under the provisions of the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA), 2002. The operation aimed to trace the drug sale proceeds generated by a well-established narcotics network allegedly operated by the couple.

The ED initiated its money laundering probe based on a case registered by the Narcotics Control Bureau (NCB), Mumbai Zonal Unit, against multiple accused, including Faisal Shaikh, Alfiya Shaikh, and several others, including Ashik Varis Ali, Nasir Khan, Irfan Yusuf Faruqi, Azim Abu Salim Khan alias Azim Bhau, Faizan Mohd. Shafi Shaikh, and Mohd. Shahid Faridudin Chaudhary alias Baboos.

Investigators said Faisal Shaikh was procuring MD (Mephedrone) drugs from Salim Dola, a notorious drug kingpin who has been wanted by law enforcement agencies for his alleged role in large-scale narcotics trafficking. The NCB has announced a reward for information leading to Dola’s arrest.

After securing bail in the NCB case, Shaikh, described by officials as a habitual offender, was placed under preventive detention under the PIT-NDPS Act.

The ED’s probe revealed that Faisal and Alfiya Shaikh allegedly ran a structured network for the sale of MD drugs sourced from Dola. During Wednesday’s searches, the agency also covered premises connected to several individuals associated with shell companies with paper transactions exceeding Rs 100 crore, as well as firms involved in foreign outward remittances and financial dealings with the accused. Officials said these entities are being examined for their possible role in layering drug proceeds and routing the funds abroad through channels such as hawala, shell companies, and trade-based mis-invoicing.

Officials said the ED searches were critical to tracing both the “forward linkage” (movement of drug sale proceeds) and “backward linkage” (sources, beneficiaries, and conduits of funds), including whether the proceeds were channelled abroad via hawala, shell companies, or trade mis-invoicing. The seized and frozen assets including cash, bank accounts, lockers, vehicles, property documents, and digital devices are being examined under the lens of money laundering.

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Stock markets end week on positive note; Banking, IT, and pharma stocks lead gains

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Mumbai, Oct 11: Indian equities ended the week on a positive note amid buying in banking, IT, and pharma stocks (in the last two sessions).

Investors’ sentiment remained firm toward banking stocks during the period, buoyed by the RBI monetary committee decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.5 per cent, and it improved further after the government invited private sector professionals to lead the State Bank of India.

Meanwhile, pharma stocks picked up momentum at the end of the week after the US administration said that they do not plan to impose tariffs on generic drugs and signalled cutting biotech ties with flagged foreign firms, especially from China.

“Pharma stocks rallied as the US revived the Biosecure Act, aiming to cut biotech ties with flagged foreign firms, especially from China, providing a strong boost to Indian CDMOs. With the earnings season underway, investors are closely watching quarterly results for cues on market direction,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited.

On Friday, Indian equity benchmark indices ended higher for the second straight session, supported by strong buying in pharma and banking stocks.

Because of the weakness in IT stocks, the Sensex opened at 82,07,5 down about 100 points. But it quickly bounced back, rising 579 points to an intra-day high of 82,654.

At 82,501, the index ultimately closed 329 points higher, or 0.4 per cent higher. Likewise, the Nifty reached a peak of 25,331 during the day and ended the day 104 points, or 0.4 per cent, higher at 25,285.

“Investor sentiment improved after the government invited private sector professionals to lead the State Bank of India. This marks a broader policy shift towards allowing private participation in public sector enterprises, aimed at enhancing efficiency and governance,” Nair added.

The Nifty index displayed strong bullish momentum over the past week, advancing 391 points or 1.57 per cent, while Sensex rallied over 1,000 points or 1.35 per cent.

“On the weekly chart, the index has formed a cup and handle pattern, and a decisive break out of this formation, supported by increasing volumes, would signal the potential for further sustained upside,” said Hardik Matalia of Choice Equity Broking.

The Bank Nifty (up 1.84 per cent), Nifty IT (up 4.8 per cent) and Nifty Pharma (up 2.12 per cent) fueled the market momentum this week.

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Sensex, Nifty edge higher as geopolitical tensions ease

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New Delhi, Oct 10: Indian stock markets opened on a flat note but soon moved higher on Friday, supported by positive global sentiment.

The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and signs of a possible trade deal between the US and India boosted investor confidence.

After the opening bell, the Sensex gained 148 points, or 0.18 per cent, to trade at 82,320 levels. The Nifty also rose 40 points, or 0.16 per cent, to 25,221 levels.

“Though yesterday’s push higher in the second half failed to clear the week’s high, it did serve to invalidate the bearish bias of the evening star candle stick pattern,” market experts said.

“This encourages us to look for 25460, in the days ahead. For the day, inability to push and float above 25215 or direct fall past 25113, could render the trend sideways, but may not call for a break of 24982 right away,” they added.

In the broader market, the Nifty Midcap 100 index inched up 0.18 per cent, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 advanced 0.28 per cent — indicating healthy participation from mid- and small-cap stocks.

Among the sectoral indices, Nifty Metal was the worst performer, slipping 1.4 per cent. It was followed by weakness in Auto, Pharma, and Healthcare stocks.

On the other hand, sectors such as Banking, Energy, FMCG, IT, Consumer Durables, Oil & Gas, and Realty were trading with gains.

In the Sensex pack, Power Grid, State Bank of India, NTPC, Adani Ports, and Asian Paints were among the top gainers.

Meanwhile, Tata Steel, TCS, Bajaj Finance, M&M, and HCL Tech were trading in the red.

“The overall market environment is turning positive. Globally, the GAZA peace accord signals end to the conflict and reduction of geopolitical risk from the region,” analysts said.

“Domestically, there are indications of a trade deal between US and India with India ‘rebalancing’ its oil purchases,” they added.

According to market analysts, these positive developments and the shift in FII strategy ( FIIs were buyers in the cash market in the last three trading days) bode well for the market.

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