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ECB sets ‘moderately lower pace’ for bond buying

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The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to leave its key interest rates unchanged and set a “moderately lower pace” for the Covid-19 pandemic-related bond buying.

“Based on a joint assessment of financing conditions and the inflation outlook, the Governing Council judges that favourable financing conditions can be maintained with a moderately lower pace of net asset purchases under the pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP) than in the previous two quarters,” the ECB said in a statement on Thursday.

Earlier this year, after its March and June meetings, the ECB decided that purchases under the PEPP in the second and third quarters would be conducted at a significantly higher pace than during the first months of the year, reports Xinhua news agency.

Thursday’s announcement came as eurozone inflation surged to three percent in August, the highest in ten years, according to a flash estimate published last week.

The ECB also left other policy measures largely unchanged.

Eurozone key interest rates will remain at record low levels, with the base interest rate, marginal lending rate and deposit rate unchanged at 0.00 per cent, 0.25 per cent and minus 0.50 per cent, respectively.

The PEPP, first rolled out in March last year to cushion the impact from the pandemic and expanded twice thereafter, has a total envelope of 1.85 trillion euros ($2 trillion) and is set to run until at least the end of March 2022.

The 3 per cent rise in eurozone headline inflation in August, together with a jump in core inflation to 1.6 per cent, had largely exceeded analysts’ expectations.

At a press conference on Thursday, ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated that the surge in inflation is expected to be temporary.

“Summing up, the euro area economy is clearly rebounding. However, the speed of the recovery continues to depend on the course of the pandemic and progress with vaccinations. The current rise in inflation is expected to be largely temporary and underlying price pressures will build up only gradually,” Lagarde told reporters.

According to the ECB, the inflation upswing mainly reflects the strong increase in oil prices since around the middle of last year; the reversal of the temporary value-added tax (VAT) reduction in Germany; delayed summer sales in 2020; and cost pressures due to supply chain issues — all of which should ease or fall out of the year-on-year inflation calculation over the course of 2022.

If supply bottlenecks last longer and feed through into higher than anticipated wage rises, price pressures could be more persistent, Lagarde said.

The ECB’s latest projections expect annual inflation in the eurozone to be 2.2 per cent in 2021, 1.7 per cent in 2022 and 1.5 percent in 2023, all revised upwards compared with the forecasts three months ago.

Lagarde also said policymakers believe that the eurozone’s growth will be back to the 2019 pre-pandemic level at the end of this year, which is two quarters earlier than initially anticipated.

The latest ECB staff projections foresee the eurozone’s real GDP to grow 5 per cent this year, 4.6 per cent in 2022 and 2.1 per cent in 2023.

Dutch bank ABN Amro said there was a little relief in the market that Thursday’s move is a slowdown rather than a taper.

It expects the PEPP to end in March 2022.

However, policy rates are likely to remain on hold through 2024, given the ECB’s symmetric 2 per cent inflation target and subdued inflation outlook in the medium term, according to the bank.

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Sensex, Nifty record mild gains amid positive global cues

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Mumbai, Dec 24: Indian benchmark indices made moderate gains early on Wednesday amid positive global cues, as the stock market appears to be in a consolidation phase.

As of 9.30 am, Sensex advanced 105 points, or 0.12 per cent to 85,630 and Nifty gained 40 points, or 0.16 per cent to 26,217.

Main broad-cap indices outperformed benchmark indices in terms of gains, with the Nifty Midcap 100 advanced 0.31 per cent, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 added 0.53 per cent.

Hindalco Industries, Axis Bank and Cipla were among the major gainers in the Nifty Pack, while losers included Tech Mahindra, TCS, Titan Company, Dr Reddy’s Labs and Tata Consumer.

Among sectoral indices on NSE, Media, Metal and Realty were the major gainers — up around 0.82 per cent, 0.58 per cent and 0.78 per cent respectively. Nifty IT was leading losses down 0.49 per cent.

The Nifty could extend its advance toward resistance levels at 26,202 and 26,330, while 26,000 is expected to provide near-term support, said experts.

Analysts said that the market appears to be consolidating upward as CY2025 ends. Strong domestic macros and earnings growth expectations in Q3 and Q4 of FY26 and FY27 will support the market.

The market will be resilient due to domestic inflows and DII buying but FIIs may sell rallies, preventing a sharp breakout. The revival of the AI trade in US might impact sentiments in favour of a ‘non-AI trade’ in markets like India, they added.

An additional Rs 2 lakh crore OMO by the RBI will boost liquidity and lower yields, providing positive momentum to credit growth and bank stocks. The RBI on Tuesday announced a fresh set of steps to inject a large amount of money into the banking system to ease tight liquidity conditions.

Asia-Pacific markets traded flat with a positive bias, with several indexes set to close early in lieu of the Christmas Eve holiday.

In Asian markets, China’s Shanghai index advanced 0.24 per cent, and Shenzhen edged up 0.31 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei added 0.06 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.08 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.12 per cent.

The US markets ended mostly in the green zone overnight, as Nasdaq advanced 0.57 per cent, the S&P 500 edged up 0.46 per cent, and the Dow moved up 0.16 per cent.

On Tuesday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 1,795 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 3,812 crore.

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Indian stock market opens lower, IT stocks lead losses

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Mumbai, Dec 23: Indian benchmark indices opened in the red zone on Tuesday, weighed down by losses in the IT stocks after artificial intelligence (AI) stocks in the US showed revival.

As of 9.30 am, the Sensex declined 159 points, or 0.19 per cent to 85,407 and the Nifty lost 32 points, or 0.13 per cent to 26,139.

Main broad cap indices showed divergent trends, with the Nifty Midcap 100 down 0.18 per cent, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 added 0.07 per cent.

ONGC, Tata Steel and NTPC were among the major gainers in the Nifty Pack, while losers included Max Healthcare, TCS, Tech Mahindra, Asian Paints and ICICI Bank.

Sectoral indices on NSE were trading in the mixed zone, with IT leading losses down 1.21 per cent. Oil and gas as well as metal were the major gainers, up around 0.43 and 0.41 per cent, respectively.

Immediate resistance for Nifty is placed at 26,300–26,350, while key supports are located at 26,000–26,050 zone, said analysts.

Market watchers found two factors to affect the market in the near term, including positive macros or fundamentals and AI trade revival. Positive macro indicators may embolden bulls to push Nifty and Sensex to new highs. But the strong AI trade revival is a mild negative externally which may delay the anticipated FII outflow reversal, they said.

Defence stocks are seemingly recovering, with more room for growth in the segment, while the IT sector has also turned resilient, analysts said.

Asia-Pacific markets showed moderate gains on Tuesday, after AI trade lifted major Wall Street indexes overnight.

In Asian markets, China’s Shanghai index advanced 0.34 per cent, and Shenzhen edged up 0.65 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei added 0.02 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.33 per cent. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.45 per cent.

The US markets ended mostly in the green zone overnight, as Nasdaq advanced 0.52 per cent, the S&P 500 edged up 0.64 per cent, and the Dow moved up 0.47 per cent.

Investors are keen on rising geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela and delays in the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations. The killing of a Russian army general in a bomb attack on Monday raised concerns over the peace process, lending support to crude oil prices.

On Monday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold equities worth Rs 516 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of equities worth Rs 3,898 crore.

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India-New Zealand FTA: PM Modi, Luxon aim to double bilateral trade over 5 years

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New Delhi, Dec 22: Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a telephone conversation with New Zealand’s Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon, on Monday as the two leaders jointly announced the successful conclusion of the historic, ambitious and mutually beneficial India-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (FTA).

During the conversation, both leaders expressed confidence in doubling bilateral trade over the next five years as well as an investment of $20 billion in India from New Zealand over the next 15 years.

The negotiations began in March this year and the two leaders concluded the FTA in a record time of nine months, reflecting the shared ambition and political will to further deepen ties between the two countries, according to a statement from Prime Minister’s Office (PMO).

“The FTA would significantly deepen bilateral economic engagement, enhance market access, promote investment flows, strengthen strategic cooperation between the two countries, and also open up new opportunities for innovators, entrepreneurs, farmers, MSMEs, students and youth of both countries across various sectors,” said the statement.

The leaders also welcomed the progress achieved in other areas of bilateral cooperation such as sports, education, and people-to-people ties, and reaffirmed their commitment towards further strengthening of the India-New Zealand partnership.

This historic FTA eliminates and reduces tariffs on 95 per cent of New Zealand’s exports – among the highest of any Indian FTA – with almost 57 per cent being duty-free from day one, increasing to 82 per cent when fully implemented, with the remaining 13 per cent subject to sharp tariff cuts.

It puts New Zealand exporters on an equal or better footing to our competitors across a range of sectors and opens the door to India’s rapidly expanding middle class, according to an official statement from New Zealand.

“The Indian economy is forecast to grow to NZ$12 trillion by 2030. The India-NZ Free Trade Agreement unleashes huge potential for our world-class exporters to the world’s largest country and will significantly accelerate progress towards New Zealand’s ambitious goal of doubling the value of exports over 10 years,” it added.

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